A second straight week of 4-4 last week, making the last five weeks now 27-13-3 68%. I actually was fortunate enough to push the Cleveland play on Monday night but I will count it as a loss seeing most people weren't able to get the +6. I mentioned a few weeks back, while I was hitting 80% of my plays, that the streak would not continue like that. Two weeks, with a combined record of 8-8 would confirm that. But, if .500 is the worse I do, I can live with that.
We are now down to the final three weeks of the season. The trick here is trying to determine who has quit and who is still playing. Hopefully I will guess right and leave off the towel tossers and keep the teams to fighting hard.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 108-90-8 55% over the first thirteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -7 Jacksonville 35.5
Absolutely got to love the way Jacksonville is playing. I have been saying all year this team was winning the yards per play and yardage battles, but was coming up short on the scoreboard because of turnovers and simply not being able to put the ball in the endzone. It didn't help having to face the likes of Indianapolis and Tennessee four times in an eight week stretch, with Baltimore and Miami also thrown in that mix. They have now allowed only 33 points over their last four games. Yes, Houston was beat up last week, but they also allowed Tennessee just 10 points four weeks back. For New England, they're playing better than Jacksonville, having now won nine straight games and they have shutout their last two opponents at home and allowed the last four opponents they have faced in NE just nine points. Does this game have under written all over it, especially when you consider it's another Florida team heading north? I'm not playing the under and I'm still trying to figure out why. I guess it's because the total is pretty low and a couple of mistakes could easily lead to an over, but the under is the way to go here. The Jacksonville offense is average over the last five games, gaining 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, but their defense has been outstanding. They are allowing just 4.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl over their last five games and that includes only 5.1 yps against 6.2 yps. That's a relevant number because NE is averaging 6.6 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. NE still can't run the ball, averaging just 2.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games. But their defense has been even better than Jacksonville's, allowing just 3.8 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Jacksonville has run the ball well, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games but NE has allowed just 3.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr during that same time span. Jacksonville qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 532-404-32 (43-24-3 TY), including the best subset of that situation, which is 141-58-6 (12-4-1 TY). The other situation is 238-167-14. Something has to give here. NE has won every home game this year by at least six points, while Jacksonville has lost every road game this year by 10 or less. Jacksonville has played at some tough venues, including a one point loss at Carolina, a 10 point loss at Indianapolis (game was much closer than final score), a seven point loss at Tennessee, and a seven point loss at Baltimore. So, they are definitely battle tested and shouldn't face anything in NE that they can't handle. Final numbers suggest NE by 6.5 (all games) and Jacksonville by one (last five games). NEW ENGLAND 13 JACKSONVILLE 12
NY JETS -3 Pittsburgh 39.5
Pittsburgh finally got up off the mat and won a game last week, albeit against a defeated Oakland team, but a win is a win. I don't have any situations for either team in this game. It's pretty hard to lay points with a Jets team, who has defeated only three teams by more than three points this year. They defeated Tennessee a few weeks back in a Monday night game, winning 24-17. They beat an extremely beat up Buffalo team earlier in the year, 30-3 and defeated a Houston team on the last play of the game, 19-14. Everything else has been a defeat or a three point win. That makes it tough to lay points with this team. The Jets offense has been fantastic over their last five games, short of last week's poor performance against a very good Buffalo defense. They have averaged 5.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl, being above average with both, the run and the pass. The Steelers defense has played better as of late, allowing just 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. The Steelers offense has been well below average, averaging just 4.8 yppl against 5.6 yppl, but they'll face a Jets defense, which is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. That includes allowing teams to throw for 7.0 yps against 6.0 yps. Final numbers show Jets by 7.5 points (all games) and this game to be a pick 'em (last five games). Knowing how difficult it's been for the Jets to win any game by more than three points and with no situations favoring either team, I'll side with the dog, who will play until the end under Cowher. PITTSBURGH 19 NY JETS 16
Dallas -1 WASHINGTON 35.5
Dallas has finally come back to earth and now appears to be nothing better than an average team. And that has played out over their last five games, as they are averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams allowing 4.4 yppl and allowing on defense 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They have lost three of their last four games but that is bound to happen when those four games were against the likes of Philadelphia, Miami, Carolina and New England. This week's game is against Washington, who doesn't resemble those other four teams. Washington has played hard this year, which is a credit to Spurrier, but the facts remain, they are a below average team. They are averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl and allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. Washington has also lost three of their last four games as well. Dallas qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 801-623-35. Consider this. Dallas has an 8-5 record, while Washington is 5-8. Dallas has a -6 turnover margin (they've turned the ball over six more times than they have created turnovers) and Washington has a +7 turnover margin (they've created seven more turnovers than they have lost). These types of things tend to even out. Record wise, Washington is still a much worse team, despite having some success with turnovers, while Dallas is much better despite not having any success with the turnovers. Again, these things tend to even out, and when they do, Dallas will perform much better. That has a good chance of happening this weekend. It's also very likely Washington will be down to their third, fourth and fifth options at running back. Of course, one could say Dallas has been playing that way all year. Final numbers suggest Washington by .5 point (all games) and Washington by four points (last five games) but the situation favors Dallas and I will lean that way. DALLAS 21 WASHINGTON 17
CINCINNATI -3 San Francisco 42
SF comes in off their 50-14 laugher over Arizona last week, but now they hit the road, where they have failed time and time again. Since 1991, SF is just 18-33-2 on the road when playing a team at or above .500, which includes just 11-29 if SF is off a win. They are just 5-22-1 if SF played at home in their previous game and their opponent was on the road. And that includes some of the better SF years, with a SB in 1994. They just haven't been a good team on the road when playing good competition. They have made a living on the road beating inferior teams. Not much has changed this year, with SF, although competitive, going 0-6 SU on the road. Over their last five games, SF is now averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. And that includes being productive with the run, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and with the pass, averaging 6.5 yps against 5.5 yps. That should fit just fine against a Cincinnati defense, which is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games (5.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr, 6.1 yps against 5.9 yps). The Cincinnati offense is also playing very well, averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games (4.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr, 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps). And that offense should excel against a 49er defense, which is allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl, including struggling terribly against the pass, allowing 6.1 yps against 5.4 yps. There are situations applying to both teams here, making the side a little harder to predict, but I like the over in this game. Both team's offenses are playing above average and both team's defenses are playing below average. Against average (SF) to below average defenses, at home this year, Cincinnati has scored 27 (Seattle), 34 (Houston) and 24 (Kansas City). Against better than average offenses (SF), they have allowed 30 (Denver), 24 (Seattle) and 19 (Kansas City). They have averaged 28 points and allowed 24 points to those teams. SF, on the road, against below average defenses, has scored 24 (St. Louis), 7 (Minnesota), 19 (Seattle), and 13 (Arizona), for an average of 16 points. They have allowed, against better than average offenses, 27 (St. Louis), 35 (Minnesota), 20 (Seattle), and 20 (Green Bay). That averages out to 26 points per game. Put those numbers together with Cincinnati's numbers, and we get something in the neighborhood of 27-20, which gets us the over. Weather could be a factor here but as long as it's not windy, which hopefully it won't be, rain or snow and a temperature in the mid thirties is fine. Final numbers predict about 43 points (all games) and about 48 points (last five games). The numbers don't give us great value but, knowing both offenses are above average and both defenses are below average, hopefully both teams should be able to move the ball and go over a total, which is just an average total for the NFL. CINCINNATI 30 SAN FRANCISCO 24
INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 Atlanta 48
Atlanta has played much better as of late, and hasn't lost a game by more than seven in eight weeks. Meanwhile, Indianapolis continues to play well and win the big games, but they haven't won a game by more than nine in eleven weeks. There's a lot of talk about how bad Atlanta's defense is, and I'm not about to tell you their defense is great, but over the last five weeks, it has played very well, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The rush defense hasn't been that solid, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr, but the pass defense has been solid, allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.5 yps. On offense, they have been below average, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. They have run the ball well, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr but not thrown the ball as well, averaging just 4.4 yps against 5.9 yps. All of those numbers could change. Vick definitely helped the running game last week but, as time goes by, he should begin to feel a little more comfortable throwing the ball, and those numbers should improve. At the same time, he'll continue to run, but maybe less than last week. Their running game, which was good before Vick did all of his scrambling last week, should find success against the Colts rush defense. Indy is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. The pass defense hasn't been very good either, allowing 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps and overall the defense is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. On offense, Indy is playing very well, averaging 3.4 ypr against 3.3 ypr and 6.9 yps against 5.4 yps, for a total of 5.4 yppl against 4.5 yppl. So, even though Indy is only averaging 3.4 ypr, they have done it against teams allowing just 3.3 ypr, which makes their running game above average. This game would figure to be a high scoring game, but I have a situation, which is 302-228-11 (16-12 TY) and plays to the under. Final numbers suggest Indy by nine points (all games) and Atlanta by two points (last five games). With no situations either way, I will lean with the dog and the under, based on that total situation. INDIANAPOLIS 27 ATLANTA 20
Minnesota -3 CHICAGO 40.5
Rex Grossman will get the start for the Bears this week. Nobody knows how well he will play but the Bears offense is based on short passes and timing. It's doubtful that the Bears will ask him to sit in the pocket and try and find open receivers. It should consist of three step drops and quick passes. Considering he is replacing Stewart and Chandler, can he be any worse? Statistically, the Bears played the Packers straight up last week, averaging 4.4 yppl and allowing 4.3 yppl. A -4 turnover ratio did the Bears in, while a +3 turnover ratio aided the Vikings last week. The Chicago defense has been outstanding the last five weeks, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Their defense has been just a little worse than the Vikings offense has been good. Minnesota has averaged 5.9 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games. Their rushing offense has averaged 5.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr, while the Bears have allowed 3.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr, which probably means the Vikings will average about 4.1 ypr, which is the league average. Minnesota is averaging 6.5 yps against 6.1 yps, while the Bears are allowing 5.0 yps against 5.3 yps, which means the Vikings will probably average just better than the league average, which sets them up for about 5.9 yps. Having said all of that, Minnesota will probably have an average game on offense, which gives them about 21 points. Chicago, on offense, has been horrible, averaging just 4.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. But they should get a bit healthier against a Vikings defense, which is allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl over the last five games. This suggests Chicago will also have an average game on offense, to just slightly better than average on offense. Factor in the Bears are at home and the numbers probably get a little better for Chicago and a little worse for Minnesota. Let's remember we're talking about a horrible Vikings defense, especially on the road. They have now allowed 48, 28, 42, 26, 13 and 25 points on the road this year. Now, the 13 points allowed were to Detroit, who has an equally poor offense to that of the Bears. But, Detroit was stopped on four straight plays at the one yard line to end that game, so the numbers could have been 20 points in that game as well. Bottom line is it will be tough for Minnesota to win this game, laying three points, knowing their defense is almost assured of allowing 20 or more points. Add in the fact Chicago has scored the following at home this year, 23, 24, 24, 20, 21, and 28 points. We know Minnesota is almost guaranteed to allow at least 20 points and the Bears have scored at least 20 points in every home game this year. Mark Chicago down for at least 20 points in this game. Minnesota has played only two average to above average defenses on the road this year, Green Bay and Detroit. They scored 30 points at Green Bay and 23 points at Detroit. In both of those games, they were +2 in turnover ratio, which helped their offense and defense, for that matter. I'm going to guess they won't win the turnover battle this week. Chicago qualifies as a turnover play this week, which is 801-623-35, including two subsets, which are 126-69-3 and 140-80-4. Minnesota also qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is a 73-38-3 play against and goes against Minnesota here. That situation is 4-1 this year. Both, Michael Bennett and Mo Williams are banged up. Bennett did not practice on Friday and may not play in this game. Final numbers, before accounting for the situations, favor Minnesota by four points (all games) and Chicago by eight points (last five games). Better defense, at home, getting points, against a poor defense laying points, that has showed little to no heart when adversity strikes. Chicago gets the straight up win here. This is, by far, the worse defense Chicago has faced at home this year, and we already know they have scored at least 20 points in every home game, including 28 points against the previous worse defense they have faced, Arizona. CHICAGO 27 MINNESOTA 20
TAMPA BAY NL Houston
No line on this game, making it hard to form an opinion here. I will lean TB's way, because they are still in the playoff hunt, after last week's win and Houston is very banged up at the running back and quarterback position. The TB defense is still playing well, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl, while the offense has been about average, gaining 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. That should be enough against a Houston team, who is below average on defense, allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl. On offense, they are well below average, gaining just 4.0 yppl against 4.5 yppl. Houston qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which plays against teams in their last road game. That situation, playing against Houston is 38-15-1. Final numbers suggest TB by 11 (all games) and by 6.5 (last five games). TAMPA BAY 24 HOUSTON 10
TENNESSEE -6.5 Buffalo 40
Another game, where it is hard to get a read, because of injuries to both teams. Buffalo is playing through their injuries, but Tennessee may be without McNair in this game. If he plays, I have to believe the offense will be a little more vanilla, trying to keep McNair healthy. Buffalo is really starting to do things well, especially on defense. They are now allowing just 4.0 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. On offense, they are still below average, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, but they are rushing the ball extremely well, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. Tennessee has played well defending the rush over the last five games, allowing just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr, but they are allowing 6.1 yps against 5.9 yps during that same time span. They haven't been able to rush the ball, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr but they continue to throw the ball well, averaging 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps. That passing offense will be severely tested this week against the Bills pass defense, which is allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.5 yps over the last five games. Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 238-167-14. Final numbers suggest Tennessee by 8.5 points (all games) and by six points (last five games). I would also like the under in this game but I do have a situation that plays on the over, which is 76-42-2 (3-1 TY), so I will lean towards the over, respecting the situations. TENNESSEE 23 BUFFALO 20
ST LOUIS -7 Seattle 51.5
Well, here I go again. Going to go against the Rams and take Seattle. Yes, I know Seattle is 1-5 ats on the road and St. Louis is 5-0-1 ats at home this year. Seattle has lost five games on the road and they didn't look good last week. They have been blown out by two teams this year, Green Bay and Minnesota, while playing competitively in their other four road games, including losing by three at Cincinnati and Baltimore and by seven to Washington. No question, turnovers have done them in this year on the road, and no question turnovers have greatly helped the Rams at home this year. If Seattle continues to turn the ball over, they will get smoked in this game as well. But, I'm of the belief that after last week's debacle, they will attempt to make some adjustments to avoid the costly mistakes they made last week. I've been saying it for weeks now and will continue to say it. The Rams, for the whole season, are just an average team (offense 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl, defense 5.2 yppl against 5.0 yppl). And, over their last five games, they are only averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while the defense is allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The rush defense has been well below average, allowing 5.3 yppl against 4.1 yppl. They do a lot of blitzing, which got Seattle in trouble last week, but Cleveland adjusted to the blitzes last week, and ran the ball well when the Rams chose to blitz. Seattle continues to perform above average on offense, averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, but the defense is well below average, allowing 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The Rams offense, over the last five games, is well below average throwing the ball, gaining just 5.5 yppl against 6.0 yppl. The rushing offense is now just above average, after being well below average for most of the season, averaging 4.2 yppl against 4.1 yppl over the last five games. That's a product of Marshall Faulk now playing. Seattle qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 88-31-5 and they qualify in a contrary situation, which is 123-56-5. Final numbers actually only suggest the Rams by three points (all games) and by two points (last five games). Those numbers reflect the Rams on the road and Seattle at home as well. If I run just home/road numbers, I get the Rams by 13 points with one of my predictors. You can certainly make a solid argument for playing the Rams. The situations, however, don't favor them in this game. I'll take my shot with, what I consider to be, two equal teams. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 302-228-11. Final numbers suggest about 51 points (all games) and 57 points (last five games) but, again, those numbers include home and road games for both teams. When I only use the respective home and road numbers for each team, I get a final prediction of about 53 points. I can't play the under in this game, knowing what has happened in Rams home games this year, but the situation suggests it will be lower scoring than some think. ST LOUIS 27 SEATTLE 24
KANSAS CITY -14 Detroit 44.5
The Detroit defense has played very well lately, but that's not a good enough reason for me to make a play on them this week. The defense is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl over their last five games, which translates to just 3.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr, but allowing 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. That may not sit too well against a KC team, who is averaging 7.0 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games. The KC defense is bad, allowing 6.0 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games. But, as bad as they are, the Detroit offense is even worse, averaging just 4.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. Detroit played a similar team in Minnesota, a few weeks ago, and lost by 10 points, but that was because of two interception returns for touchdowns in the last four minutes of that game for the Vikings. Detroit qualifies in the turnover table situation this week, which is 801-623-35, including a subset, which is 123-71-4 and 6-2 this year. Kansas City does qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 44-16-1 (3-0 TY), if they are laying less than 14 points. Detroit also qualifies in a couple of other contrary situations. Final numbers suggest KC by 15 points (all games) and by 10 points (last five games). You should know that all teams, over the last 20 seasons, laying 14 or more points, when at home, are just 51-71-3 41.8%, including just 9-23-0 if they are off a loss. So, if you think KC will smoke Detroit this week because of their loss last week, history does not suggest that. If this line goes higher than -14, know these home teams are 33-51-2 39.3%. And, know if our home team laying -14 or more points, and is not undefeated, they are just 37-61-1 37.8%. I'd be very careful laying this many points this weekend, especially knowing KC is now 0-4 ats since their game against Cincinnati, which they lost. KANSAS CITY 28 DETROIT 17
DENVER -11 Cleveland 43
Game number one of two this weekend that qualifies as a best bet, but I am deciding not to play for various reasons. Cleveland qualifies in several situations this week, including what might be my best situation, which is 91-24-2 (2-1 TY). The last time I passed on two best bets, those games both won, so we'll see what happens here. The Broncos, especially Portis, looked terrific last week, gaining 8.3 yppl against the porous KC defense. Denver is now averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games and the defense has been above average, allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl over that same time span. Denver has done it with the run, averaging 5.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr, including 8.4 ypr last week against KC, aided by the Portis runs. The Cleveland offense has been poor and is banged up, averaging just 5.0 yppl against 5.5 yppl over their last five games. But, the defense continues to play well, allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. They held the Rams to just 3.8 ypr, 5.4 yps and 4.7 yppl last week. Cleveland also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 301-217-11 (14-10-1 TY). They are also a turnover table play, which is 801-623-35. Denver has already failed twice this year at home, laying these kinds of points, after winning their previous game at home. They defeated Detroit, 20-16, laying 11.5 points, and lost to Chicago, 10-19, laying 10.5 points. Final numbers suggest Denver by 10.5 points (all games) and by 13 points (last five games). Situations, including a couple of very good situations, suggest Cleveland is the play here. They are awful banged up, which keeps me from playing this game, but I would not lay the points in this game. DENVER 21 CLEVELAND 13
Baltimore -6.5 OAKLAND 39.5
Game number two that I am not playing this week. The situations lie clearly with Oakland in this game. I am passing on the game for two reasons. First, Oakland may have quit for the year and if the players truly want Callahan fired, there is no better way than to not play as hard as he would like. When, as a coach, you lose your team, you are doomed. Also, Baltimore does qualify in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 532-404-32 (43-24-3 TY), including the best subset, which is 141-58-6 (12-4-1 TY). Baltimore also qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is an 81-43-5 play against Baltimore here. And Baltimore qualifies in a scheduling situation, which plays against them here and is 160-90-8. I say it each week that teams that are not covering the spread, when playing teams who are covering the spread, are the teams to play on. Oakland qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 276-181-21 (11-6-2 TY). The Raiders have played well at home this year, losing by no more than seven in five of six games. And the one game they lost by 14, to Denver, they actually out played Denver, but a multitude of lost fumbles did them in. Baltimore, on the other hand, is coming off of three straight home games. They've won but one game by more than eight points this year on the road, at San Diego, so going West doesn't seem to be a problem for them. Teams playing on the road, after playing three consecutive home games, are just 19-35-0 if they are getting one or less points (also favored). It doesn't appear to be a very good situation for Baltimore in this game. Final numbers suggest Baltimore by 5.5 points (all games) and by 2.5 points (last five games). It's hard for me to make a play on Oakland, because of the solid rushing situation on Baltimore, which is having a great season this year, but Oakland appears to be the play. If this line were to go higher than seven points, I would make Oakland a best bet. BALTIMORE 24 OAKLAND 20
Carolina -6.5 ARIZONA 39.5
Thankfully, I don't have enough criteria to play Arizona this week, although they have played much better at home than on the road. Arizona does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 801-623-35, including a subset, which is 126-69-3. The offense, which will start McNown at quarterback this week, is suffering, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games. At least McNown will now be able to play before Arizona gets down by 30+ points. The defense hasn't been any better, allowing 6.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including 4.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.8 yps against 5.7 yps. Carolina is not running the ball well at all, as of late, averaging just 3.1 ypr against 4.5 ypr, but they continue to throw the ball well, averaging 7.4 yps against 5.5 yps and should find some holes in the Arizona pass defense this Sunday. The defense has been just better than average over their last five games, allowing 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Final numbers favor Carolina by six points (all games) and by six points (last five games). Carolina has won only one game this year by more than six points and that game was at home, while Arizona has lost only one game by more than eight points, at home this year. CAROLINA 24 ARIZONA 20
Green Bay -5 SAN DIEGO 45.5
Oh, it pains me to go against my Packers this week, but that is what I must do. The situations greatly favor SD this week. Drew Brees gets the start here, which isn't to my liking but the results shouldn't be too much different. The perception with SD is their offense isn't that good and the defense isn't good either. But, over their last five games, the offense is well above average, averaging 5.9 yppl against 5.6 yppl and the defense has also played well, allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl. The defense is allowing 4.6 ypr over that time, but against teams averaging 4.7 ypr, so they are actually defending the run better than average. On offense, they continue to run the ball well, gaining 5.4 ypr against 4.8 ypr and they are now an average team throwing the ball, averaging 6.3 yps against 6.3 yps. For GB, the offense has not played as well over the last five games, averaging just 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They continue to run the ball well, 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr, but not quite as well as they have earlier in the season. The defense has played extremely well lately, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl over the last five games. Good weather, which SD has, along with a healthier Favre, should allow this offense to be a little more productive this week. The Packers defense has played well lately but that has included two games against Detroit and Chicago, which can often give you misleading numbers. SD qualifies in some great situations this week, including a home momentum situation, which is 77-42-2, including a subset, which is 34-5-1, 13-0 if our team is getting more than three points and an amazing 32-3-1 if our opponent was even to positive in turnover margin in their last game, making them feel good about themselves. They qualify in another home momentum situation, which is 156-105-10 (4-0 TY). Green Bay is now one game over .500 but teams favored by five or more, after winning their last game to go over .500, are now just 23-53-1 when playing a team below or at .500. That same situation won with Detroit over GB earlier this year. And that situation is 16-6 in December, so if you think GB will be focused this week because of the playoff run, it hasn't helped other teams playing in December. GB also qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 73-38-3 play against situation here, which is 4-1 this year. Once again, SD also qualifies in our play on teams not covering the spread against teams covering the spread, which is 276-181-21 (11-6-2 TY). And the Chargers qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-57-8. The situations definitely favor SD. Final numbers indicate GB by five (all games) and by .5 point (last five games). SD struggled earlier this year, at home, against better than average defenses, losing by 24 and 14 to Denver and Baltimore. But, in their last three home games, against below average defenses, they have scored 42 points (Minnesota), 27 points (Cincinnati) and 24 points (Kansas City). The GB defense is somewhere in between the good defenses and the below average defenses. GB has played only two good offenses on the road this year, allowing 27 points to Minnesota and 34 points to St. Louis. That's an average of about 31 points. We can probably mark SD down for about 24-27 points in this game. GB has played three defenses somewhat similar to the SD defense, on the road this year. They have scored 13 points (Arizona - were really banged up at receiver), 30 points (Minnesota) and 24 points (St. Louis). SD has faced four good offenses at home this year and allowed 37 points (Denver), 28 points (Minnesota), 34 points (Cincinnati) and 28 points (Kansas City). So GB is averaging about 22-23 points on the road against poor defenses and SD is allowing an average of 32 points against good offenses at home. We can probably pencil in GB for about 27 points in this game. That gives us around a 27-24 or 27-27 game, which clearly gives us enough points for the over and allows the dog to stay in this game. Situations clearly favor SD and the over looks to have a good shot as well. GREEN BAY 27 SAN DIEGO 26
NEW ORLEANS -7.5 NY Giants 39
I am on the Giants here and it is real hard to try and tell you the Giants are the better team. They certainly are not the better team right now, but I still think they have a shot at the cover here. The Giants qualify as a contrary play, which is 301-217-11 (14-10-1 TY) as well as another contrary situation, which is 111-57-6 (5-2-1 TY). NO has won only one game by more than seven points this year and I expect the Giants, third and fourth string and all, to give a good effort on national television Sunday night. It's hard to find anything positive with the Giants lately but they are still running the ball well, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and that should sit just fine against a Saints defense, which is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. The one area of strength for the Saints has been their running game, which is averaging 5.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr but the Giants have defended the run well, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.5 ypr. It's a lot different laying seven points than taking seven points and the Giants, with any kind of effort at all, and the ability to run the ball some, can stay within this number. I'm well aware of the injuries in the secondary, offensive line, quarterback, wide receivers and tight end. But, if it were that easy, then this line would be closer to 14 points. It isn't and it isn't. NEW ORLEANS 21 NY GIANTS 20
MIAMI -2 Philadelphia 37
No question Philly is playing well over their last eight games (eight wins). But, I just find it hard to believe a team that is allowing 5.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr (last five games) and has allowed nine straight teams to gain over 100 yards rushing, can keep on winning. Miami has not run the ball well, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr over their last five games, but Philly is much worse than Miami is, and therefore, Miami will get some yards on the ground in this game. And, while Miami is above average on defense, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl, the Philly offense has been even better, gaining 6.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Philly qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 32-10-3 play against situation and another letdown situation, which is a 63-27-4 play against situation. Dolphins also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is a 62-27-2 play. And, once again, we have our play on teams not covering the spread, against teams covering the spread situation, which is 276-181-21 (11-6-2 TY). Final numbers favor Miami by 4.5 points (all games) and Philly by eight points (last five games). But, those numbers are skewed a little because Griese was playing in a couple of those games. It's hard to go against Philly in this game but this is where situations are the way to go and they support Miami big time in this game. This game may be higher scoring than 'they' think. MIAMI 27 PHILADELPHIA 17
BEST BETS
YTD 51-35-5 +29.50%
3% CHICAGO +3
3% SAN DIEGO +5
2% SEATTLE +7
2% NY GIANTS +7.5
2% MIAMI -2
2% SF/CINCINNATI OVER 41.5
2% GB/SAN DIEGO OVER 45.5
We are now down to the final three weeks of the season. The trick here is trying to determine who has quit and who is still playing. Hopefully I will guess right and leave off the towel tossers and keep the teams to fighting hard.
All side opinions went 8-8 last week and are now 108-90-8 55% over the first thirteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -7 Jacksonville 35.5
Absolutely got to love the way Jacksonville is playing. I have been saying all year this team was winning the yards per play and yardage battles, but was coming up short on the scoreboard because of turnovers and simply not being able to put the ball in the endzone. It didn't help having to face the likes of Indianapolis and Tennessee four times in an eight week stretch, with Baltimore and Miami also thrown in that mix. They have now allowed only 33 points over their last four games. Yes, Houston was beat up last week, but they also allowed Tennessee just 10 points four weeks back. For New England, they're playing better than Jacksonville, having now won nine straight games and they have shutout their last two opponents at home and allowed the last four opponents they have faced in NE just nine points. Does this game have under written all over it, especially when you consider it's another Florida team heading north? I'm not playing the under and I'm still trying to figure out why. I guess it's because the total is pretty low and a couple of mistakes could easily lead to an over, but the under is the way to go here. The Jacksonville offense is average over the last five games, gaining 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, but their defense has been outstanding. They are allowing just 4.3 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl over their last five games and that includes only 5.1 yps against 6.2 yps. That's a relevant number because NE is averaging 6.6 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. NE still can't run the ball, averaging just 2.7 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games. But their defense has been even better than Jacksonville's, allowing just 3.8 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Jacksonville has run the ball well, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games but NE has allowed just 3.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr during that same time span. Jacksonville qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 532-404-32 (43-24-3 TY), including the best subset of that situation, which is 141-58-6 (12-4-1 TY). The other situation is 238-167-14. Something has to give here. NE has won every home game this year by at least six points, while Jacksonville has lost every road game this year by 10 or less. Jacksonville has played at some tough venues, including a one point loss at Carolina, a 10 point loss at Indianapolis (game was much closer than final score), a seven point loss at Tennessee, and a seven point loss at Baltimore. So, they are definitely battle tested and shouldn't face anything in NE that they can't handle. Final numbers suggest NE by 6.5 (all games) and Jacksonville by one (last five games). NEW ENGLAND 13 JACKSONVILLE 12
NY JETS -3 Pittsburgh 39.5
Pittsburgh finally got up off the mat and won a game last week, albeit against a defeated Oakland team, but a win is a win. I don't have any situations for either team in this game. It's pretty hard to lay points with a Jets team, who has defeated only three teams by more than three points this year. They defeated Tennessee a few weeks back in a Monday night game, winning 24-17. They beat an extremely beat up Buffalo team earlier in the year, 30-3 and defeated a Houston team on the last play of the game, 19-14. Everything else has been a defeat or a three point win. That makes it tough to lay points with this team. The Jets offense has been fantastic over their last five games, short of last week's poor performance against a very good Buffalo defense. They have averaged 5.8 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl, being above average with both, the run and the pass. The Steelers defense has played better as of late, allowing just 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. The Steelers offense has been well below average, averaging just 4.8 yppl against 5.6 yppl, but they'll face a Jets defense, which is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. That includes allowing teams to throw for 7.0 yps against 6.0 yps. Final numbers show Jets by 7.5 points (all games) and this game to be a pick 'em (last five games). Knowing how difficult it's been for the Jets to win any game by more than three points and with no situations favoring either team, I'll side with the dog, who will play until the end under Cowher. PITTSBURGH 19 NY JETS 16
Dallas -1 WASHINGTON 35.5
Dallas has finally come back to earth and now appears to be nothing better than an average team. And that has played out over their last five games, as they are averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams allowing 4.4 yppl and allowing on defense 4.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They have lost three of their last four games but that is bound to happen when those four games were against the likes of Philadelphia, Miami, Carolina and New England. This week's game is against Washington, who doesn't resemble those other four teams. Washington has played hard this year, which is a credit to Spurrier, but the facts remain, they are a below average team. They are averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl and allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games. Washington has also lost three of their last four games as well. Dallas qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 801-623-35. Consider this. Dallas has an 8-5 record, while Washington is 5-8. Dallas has a -6 turnover margin (they've turned the ball over six more times than they have created turnovers) and Washington has a +7 turnover margin (they've created seven more turnovers than they have lost). These types of things tend to even out. Record wise, Washington is still a much worse team, despite having some success with turnovers, while Dallas is much better despite not having any success with the turnovers. Again, these things tend to even out, and when they do, Dallas will perform much better. That has a good chance of happening this weekend. It's also very likely Washington will be down to their third, fourth and fifth options at running back. Of course, one could say Dallas has been playing that way all year. Final numbers suggest Washington by .5 point (all games) and Washington by four points (last five games) but the situation favors Dallas and I will lean that way. DALLAS 21 WASHINGTON 17
CINCINNATI -3 San Francisco 42
SF comes in off their 50-14 laugher over Arizona last week, but now they hit the road, where they have failed time and time again. Since 1991, SF is just 18-33-2 on the road when playing a team at or above .500, which includes just 11-29 if SF is off a win. They are just 5-22-1 if SF played at home in their previous game and their opponent was on the road. And that includes some of the better SF years, with a SB in 1994. They just haven't been a good team on the road when playing good competition. They have made a living on the road beating inferior teams. Not much has changed this year, with SF, although competitive, going 0-6 SU on the road. Over their last five games, SF is now averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. And that includes being productive with the run, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and with the pass, averaging 6.5 yps against 5.5 yps. That should fit just fine against a Cincinnati defense, which is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games (5.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr, 6.1 yps against 5.9 yps). The Cincinnati offense is also playing very well, averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games (4.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr, 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps). And that offense should excel against a 49er defense, which is allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.8 yppl, including struggling terribly against the pass, allowing 6.1 yps against 5.4 yps. There are situations applying to both teams here, making the side a little harder to predict, but I like the over in this game. Both team's offenses are playing above average and both team's defenses are playing below average. Against average (SF) to below average defenses, at home this year, Cincinnati has scored 27 (Seattle), 34 (Houston) and 24 (Kansas City). Against better than average offenses (SF), they have allowed 30 (Denver), 24 (Seattle) and 19 (Kansas City). They have averaged 28 points and allowed 24 points to those teams. SF, on the road, against below average defenses, has scored 24 (St. Louis), 7 (Minnesota), 19 (Seattle), and 13 (Arizona), for an average of 16 points. They have allowed, against better than average offenses, 27 (St. Louis), 35 (Minnesota), 20 (Seattle), and 20 (Green Bay). That averages out to 26 points per game. Put those numbers together with Cincinnati's numbers, and we get something in the neighborhood of 27-20, which gets us the over. Weather could be a factor here but as long as it's not windy, which hopefully it won't be, rain or snow and a temperature in the mid thirties is fine. Final numbers predict about 43 points (all games) and about 48 points (last five games). The numbers don't give us great value but, knowing both offenses are above average and both defenses are below average, hopefully both teams should be able to move the ball and go over a total, which is just an average total for the NFL. CINCINNATI 30 SAN FRANCISCO 24
INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 Atlanta 48
Atlanta has played much better as of late, and hasn't lost a game by more than seven in eight weeks. Meanwhile, Indianapolis continues to play well and win the big games, but they haven't won a game by more than nine in eleven weeks. There's a lot of talk about how bad Atlanta's defense is, and I'm not about to tell you their defense is great, but over the last five weeks, it has played very well, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The rush defense hasn't been that solid, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr, but the pass defense has been solid, allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.5 yps. On offense, they have been below average, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. They have run the ball well, averaging 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr but not thrown the ball as well, averaging just 4.4 yps against 5.9 yps. All of those numbers could change. Vick definitely helped the running game last week but, as time goes by, he should begin to feel a little more comfortable throwing the ball, and those numbers should improve. At the same time, he'll continue to run, but maybe less than last week. Their running game, which was good before Vick did all of his scrambling last week, should find success against the Colts rush defense. Indy is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. The pass defense hasn't been very good either, allowing 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps and overall the defense is allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. On offense, Indy is playing very well, averaging 3.4 ypr against 3.3 ypr and 6.9 yps against 5.4 yps, for a total of 5.4 yppl against 4.5 yppl. So, even though Indy is only averaging 3.4 ypr, they have done it against teams allowing just 3.3 ypr, which makes their running game above average. This game would figure to be a high scoring game, but I have a situation, which is 302-228-11 (16-12 TY) and plays to the under. Final numbers suggest Indy by nine points (all games) and Atlanta by two points (last five games). With no situations either way, I will lean with the dog and the under, based on that total situation. INDIANAPOLIS 27 ATLANTA 20
Minnesota -3 CHICAGO 40.5
Rex Grossman will get the start for the Bears this week. Nobody knows how well he will play but the Bears offense is based on short passes and timing. It's doubtful that the Bears will ask him to sit in the pocket and try and find open receivers. It should consist of three step drops and quick passes. Considering he is replacing Stewart and Chandler, can he be any worse? Statistically, the Bears played the Packers straight up last week, averaging 4.4 yppl and allowing 4.3 yppl. A -4 turnover ratio did the Bears in, while a +3 turnover ratio aided the Vikings last week. The Chicago defense has been outstanding the last five weeks, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Their defense has been just a little worse than the Vikings offense has been good. Minnesota has averaged 5.9 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games. Their rushing offense has averaged 5.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr, while the Bears have allowed 3.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr, which probably means the Vikings will average about 4.1 ypr, which is the league average. Minnesota is averaging 6.5 yps against 6.1 yps, while the Bears are allowing 5.0 yps against 5.3 yps, which means the Vikings will probably average just better than the league average, which sets them up for about 5.9 yps. Having said all of that, Minnesota will probably have an average game on offense, which gives them about 21 points. Chicago, on offense, has been horrible, averaging just 4.2 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. But they should get a bit healthier against a Vikings defense, which is allowing 6.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl over the last five games. This suggests Chicago will also have an average game on offense, to just slightly better than average on offense. Factor in the Bears are at home and the numbers probably get a little better for Chicago and a little worse for Minnesota. Let's remember we're talking about a horrible Vikings defense, especially on the road. They have now allowed 48, 28, 42, 26, 13 and 25 points on the road this year. Now, the 13 points allowed were to Detroit, who has an equally poor offense to that of the Bears. But, Detroit was stopped on four straight plays at the one yard line to end that game, so the numbers could have been 20 points in that game as well. Bottom line is it will be tough for Minnesota to win this game, laying three points, knowing their defense is almost assured of allowing 20 or more points. Add in the fact Chicago has scored the following at home this year, 23, 24, 24, 20, 21, and 28 points. We know Minnesota is almost guaranteed to allow at least 20 points and the Bears have scored at least 20 points in every home game this year. Mark Chicago down for at least 20 points in this game. Minnesota has played only two average to above average defenses on the road this year, Green Bay and Detroit. They scored 30 points at Green Bay and 23 points at Detroit. In both of those games, they were +2 in turnover ratio, which helped their offense and defense, for that matter. I'm going to guess they won't win the turnover battle this week. Chicago qualifies as a turnover play this week, which is 801-623-35, including two subsets, which are 126-69-3 and 140-80-4. Minnesota also qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is a 73-38-3 play against and goes against Minnesota here. That situation is 4-1 this year. Both, Michael Bennett and Mo Williams are banged up. Bennett did not practice on Friday and may not play in this game. Final numbers, before accounting for the situations, favor Minnesota by four points (all games) and Chicago by eight points (last five games). Better defense, at home, getting points, against a poor defense laying points, that has showed little to no heart when adversity strikes. Chicago gets the straight up win here. This is, by far, the worse defense Chicago has faced at home this year, and we already know they have scored at least 20 points in every home game, including 28 points against the previous worse defense they have faced, Arizona. CHICAGO 27 MINNESOTA 20
TAMPA BAY NL Houston
No line on this game, making it hard to form an opinion here. I will lean TB's way, because they are still in the playoff hunt, after last week's win and Houston is very banged up at the running back and quarterback position. The TB defense is still playing well, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl, while the offense has been about average, gaining 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. That should be enough against a Houston team, who is below average on defense, allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl. On offense, they are well below average, gaining just 4.0 yppl against 4.5 yppl. Houston qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which plays against teams in their last road game. That situation, playing against Houston is 38-15-1. Final numbers suggest TB by 11 (all games) and by 6.5 (last five games). TAMPA BAY 24 HOUSTON 10
TENNESSEE -6.5 Buffalo 40
Another game, where it is hard to get a read, because of injuries to both teams. Buffalo is playing through their injuries, but Tennessee may be without McNair in this game. If he plays, I have to believe the offense will be a little more vanilla, trying to keep McNair healthy. Buffalo is really starting to do things well, especially on defense. They are now allowing just 4.0 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. On offense, they are still below average, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, but they are rushing the ball extremely well, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. Tennessee has played well defending the rush over the last five games, allowing just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr, but they are allowing 6.1 yps against 5.9 yps during that same time span. They haven't been able to rush the ball, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr but they continue to throw the ball well, averaging 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps. That passing offense will be severely tested this week against the Bills pass defense, which is allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.5 yps over the last five games. Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 238-167-14. Final numbers suggest Tennessee by 8.5 points (all games) and by six points (last five games). I would also like the under in this game but I do have a situation that plays on the over, which is 76-42-2 (3-1 TY), so I will lean towards the over, respecting the situations. TENNESSEE 23 BUFFALO 20
ST LOUIS -7 Seattle 51.5
Well, here I go again. Going to go against the Rams and take Seattle. Yes, I know Seattle is 1-5 ats on the road and St. Louis is 5-0-1 ats at home this year. Seattle has lost five games on the road and they didn't look good last week. They have been blown out by two teams this year, Green Bay and Minnesota, while playing competitively in their other four road games, including losing by three at Cincinnati and Baltimore and by seven to Washington. No question, turnovers have done them in this year on the road, and no question turnovers have greatly helped the Rams at home this year. If Seattle continues to turn the ball over, they will get smoked in this game as well. But, I'm of the belief that after last week's debacle, they will attempt to make some adjustments to avoid the costly mistakes they made last week. I've been saying it for weeks now and will continue to say it. The Rams, for the whole season, are just an average team (offense 5.3 yppl against 5.1 yppl, defense 5.2 yppl against 5.0 yppl). And, over their last five games, they are only averaging 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl, while the defense is allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The rush defense has been well below average, allowing 5.3 yppl against 4.1 yppl. They do a lot of blitzing, which got Seattle in trouble last week, but Cleveland adjusted to the blitzes last week, and ran the ball well when the Rams chose to blitz. Seattle continues to perform above average on offense, averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, but the defense is well below average, allowing 5.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The Rams offense, over the last five games, is well below average throwing the ball, gaining just 5.5 yppl against 6.0 yppl. The rushing offense is now just above average, after being well below average for most of the season, averaging 4.2 yppl against 4.1 yppl over the last five games. That's a product of Marshall Faulk now playing. Seattle qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 88-31-5 and they qualify in a contrary situation, which is 123-56-5. Final numbers actually only suggest the Rams by three points (all games) and by two points (last five games). Those numbers reflect the Rams on the road and Seattle at home as well. If I run just home/road numbers, I get the Rams by 13 points with one of my predictors. You can certainly make a solid argument for playing the Rams. The situations, however, don't favor them in this game. I'll take my shot with, what I consider to be, two equal teams. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 302-228-11. Final numbers suggest about 51 points (all games) and 57 points (last five games) but, again, those numbers include home and road games for both teams. When I only use the respective home and road numbers for each team, I get a final prediction of about 53 points. I can't play the under in this game, knowing what has happened in Rams home games this year, but the situation suggests it will be lower scoring than some think. ST LOUIS 27 SEATTLE 24
KANSAS CITY -14 Detroit 44.5
The Detroit defense has played very well lately, but that's not a good enough reason for me to make a play on them this week. The defense is allowing 5.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl over their last five games, which translates to just 3.9 ypr against 4.5 ypr, but allowing 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. That may not sit too well against a KC team, who is averaging 7.0 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games. The KC defense is bad, allowing 6.0 yppl against 5.4 yppl over their last five games. But, as bad as they are, the Detroit offense is even worse, averaging just 4.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. Detroit played a similar team in Minnesota, a few weeks ago, and lost by 10 points, but that was because of two interception returns for touchdowns in the last four minutes of that game for the Vikings. Detroit qualifies in the turnover table situation this week, which is 801-623-35, including a subset, which is 123-71-4 and 6-2 this year. Kansas City does qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 44-16-1 (3-0 TY), if they are laying less than 14 points. Detroit also qualifies in a couple of other contrary situations. Final numbers suggest KC by 15 points (all games) and by 10 points (last five games). You should know that all teams, over the last 20 seasons, laying 14 or more points, when at home, are just 51-71-3 41.8%, including just 9-23-0 if they are off a loss. So, if you think KC will smoke Detroit this week because of their loss last week, history does not suggest that. If this line goes higher than -14, know these home teams are 33-51-2 39.3%. And, know if our home team laying -14 or more points, and is not undefeated, they are just 37-61-1 37.8%. I'd be very careful laying this many points this weekend, especially knowing KC is now 0-4 ats since their game against Cincinnati, which they lost. KANSAS CITY 28 DETROIT 17
DENVER -11 Cleveland 43
Game number one of two this weekend that qualifies as a best bet, but I am deciding not to play for various reasons. Cleveland qualifies in several situations this week, including what might be my best situation, which is 91-24-2 (2-1 TY). The last time I passed on two best bets, those games both won, so we'll see what happens here. The Broncos, especially Portis, looked terrific last week, gaining 8.3 yppl against the porous KC defense. Denver is now averaging 5.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games and the defense has been above average, allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl over that same time span. Denver has done it with the run, averaging 5.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr, including 8.4 ypr last week against KC, aided by the Portis runs. The Cleveland offense has been poor and is banged up, averaging just 5.0 yppl against 5.5 yppl over their last five games. But, the defense continues to play well, allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. They held the Rams to just 3.8 ypr, 5.4 yps and 4.7 yppl last week. Cleveland also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 301-217-11 (14-10-1 TY). They are also a turnover table play, which is 801-623-35. Denver has already failed twice this year at home, laying these kinds of points, after winning their previous game at home. They defeated Detroit, 20-16, laying 11.5 points, and lost to Chicago, 10-19, laying 10.5 points. Final numbers suggest Denver by 10.5 points (all games) and by 13 points (last five games). Situations, including a couple of very good situations, suggest Cleveland is the play here. They are awful banged up, which keeps me from playing this game, but I would not lay the points in this game. DENVER 21 CLEVELAND 13
Baltimore -6.5 OAKLAND 39.5
Game number two that I am not playing this week. The situations lie clearly with Oakland in this game. I am passing on the game for two reasons. First, Oakland may have quit for the year and if the players truly want Callahan fired, there is no better way than to not play as hard as he would like. When, as a coach, you lose your team, you are doomed. Also, Baltimore does qualify in a very solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 532-404-32 (43-24-3 TY), including the best subset, which is 141-58-6 (12-4-1 TY). Baltimore also qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is an 81-43-5 play against Baltimore here. And Baltimore qualifies in a scheduling situation, which plays against them here and is 160-90-8. I say it each week that teams that are not covering the spread, when playing teams who are covering the spread, are the teams to play on. Oakland qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 276-181-21 (11-6-2 TY). The Raiders have played well at home this year, losing by no more than seven in five of six games. And the one game they lost by 14, to Denver, they actually out played Denver, but a multitude of lost fumbles did them in. Baltimore, on the other hand, is coming off of three straight home games. They've won but one game by more than eight points this year on the road, at San Diego, so going West doesn't seem to be a problem for them. Teams playing on the road, after playing three consecutive home games, are just 19-35-0 if they are getting one or less points (also favored). It doesn't appear to be a very good situation for Baltimore in this game. Final numbers suggest Baltimore by 5.5 points (all games) and by 2.5 points (last five games). It's hard for me to make a play on Oakland, because of the solid rushing situation on Baltimore, which is having a great season this year, but Oakland appears to be the play. If this line were to go higher than seven points, I would make Oakland a best bet. BALTIMORE 24 OAKLAND 20
Carolina -6.5 ARIZONA 39.5
Thankfully, I don't have enough criteria to play Arizona this week, although they have played much better at home than on the road. Arizona does qualify as a turnover table play, which is 801-623-35, including a subset, which is 126-69-3. The offense, which will start McNown at quarterback this week, is suffering, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games. At least McNown will now be able to play before Arizona gets down by 30+ points. The defense hasn't been any better, allowing 6.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including 4.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.8 yps against 5.7 yps. Carolina is not running the ball well at all, as of late, averaging just 3.1 ypr against 4.5 ypr, but they continue to throw the ball well, averaging 7.4 yps against 5.5 yps and should find some holes in the Arizona pass defense this Sunday. The defense has been just better than average over their last five games, allowing 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Final numbers favor Carolina by six points (all games) and by six points (last five games). Carolina has won only one game this year by more than six points and that game was at home, while Arizona has lost only one game by more than eight points, at home this year. CAROLINA 24 ARIZONA 20
Green Bay -5 SAN DIEGO 45.5
Oh, it pains me to go against my Packers this week, but that is what I must do. The situations greatly favor SD this week. Drew Brees gets the start here, which isn't to my liking but the results shouldn't be too much different. The perception with SD is their offense isn't that good and the defense isn't good either. But, over their last five games, the offense is well above average, averaging 5.9 yppl against 5.6 yppl and the defense has also played well, allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.5 yppl. The defense is allowing 4.6 ypr over that time, but against teams averaging 4.7 ypr, so they are actually defending the run better than average. On offense, they continue to run the ball well, gaining 5.4 ypr against 4.8 ypr and they are now an average team throwing the ball, averaging 6.3 yps against 6.3 yps. For GB, the offense has not played as well over the last five games, averaging just 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They continue to run the ball well, 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr, but not quite as well as they have earlier in the season. The defense has played extremely well lately, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl over the last five games. Good weather, which SD has, along with a healthier Favre, should allow this offense to be a little more productive this week. The Packers defense has played well lately but that has included two games against Detroit and Chicago, which can often give you misleading numbers. SD qualifies in some great situations this week, including a home momentum situation, which is 77-42-2, including a subset, which is 34-5-1, 13-0 if our team is getting more than three points and an amazing 32-3-1 if our opponent was even to positive in turnover margin in their last game, making them feel good about themselves. They qualify in another home momentum situation, which is 156-105-10 (4-0 TY). Green Bay is now one game over .500 but teams favored by five or more, after winning their last game to go over .500, are now just 23-53-1 when playing a team below or at .500. That same situation won with Detroit over GB earlier this year. And that situation is 16-6 in December, so if you think GB will be focused this week because of the playoff run, it hasn't helped other teams playing in December. GB also qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 73-38-3 play against situation here, which is 4-1 this year. Once again, SD also qualifies in our play on teams not covering the spread against teams covering the spread, which is 276-181-21 (11-6-2 TY). And the Chargers qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-57-8. The situations definitely favor SD. Final numbers indicate GB by five (all games) and by .5 point (last five games). SD struggled earlier this year, at home, against better than average defenses, losing by 24 and 14 to Denver and Baltimore. But, in their last three home games, against below average defenses, they have scored 42 points (Minnesota), 27 points (Cincinnati) and 24 points (Kansas City). The GB defense is somewhere in between the good defenses and the below average defenses. GB has played only two good offenses on the road this year, allowing 27 points to Minnesota and 34 points to St. Louis. That's an average of about 31 points. We can probably mark SD down for about 24-27 points in this game. GB has played three defenses somewhat similar to the SD defense, on the road this year. They have scored 13 points (Arizona - were really banged up at receiver), 30 points (Minnesota) and 24 points (St. Louis). SD has faced four good offenses at home this year and allowed 37 points (Denver), 28 points (Minnesota), 34 points (Cincinnati) and 28 points (Kansas City). So GB is averaging about 22-23 points on the road against poor defenses and SD is allowing an average of 32 points against good offenses at home. We can probably pencil in GB for about 27 points in this game. That gives us around a 27-24 or 27-27 game, which clearly gives us enough points for the over and allows the dog to stay in this game. Situations clearly favor SD and the over looks to have a good shot as well. GREEN BAY 27 SAN DIEGO 26
NEW ORLEANS -7.5 NY Giants 39
I am on the Giants here and it is real hard to try and tell you the Giants are the better team. They certainly are not the better team right now, but I still think they have a shot at the cover here. The Giants qualify as a contrary play, which is 301-217-11 (14-10-1 TY) as well as another contrary situation, which is 111-57-6 (5-2-1 TY). NO has won only one game by more than seven points this year and I expect the Giants, third and fourth string and all, to give a good effort on national television Sunday night. It's hard to find anything positive with the Giants lately but they are still running the ball well, gaining 4.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr and that should sit just fine against a Saints defense, which is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. The one area of strength for the Saints has been their running game, which is averaging 5.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr but the Giants have defended the run well, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.5 ypr. It's a lot different laying seven points than taking seven points and the Giants, with any kind of effort at all, and the ability to run the ball some, can stay within this number. I'm well aware of the injuries in the secondary, offensive line, quarterback, wide receivers and tight end. But, if it were that easy, then this line would be closer to 14 points. It isn't and it isn't. NEW ORLEANS 21 NY GIANTS 20
MIAMI -2 Philadelphia 37
No question Philly is playing well over their last eight games (eight wins). But, I just find it hard to believe a team that is allowing 5.6 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr (last five games) and has allowed nine straight teams to gain over 100 yards rushing, can keep on winning. Miami has not run the ball well, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr over their last five games, but Philly is much worse than Miami is, and therefore, Miami will get some yards on the ground in this game. And, while Miami is above average on defense, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 4.7 yppl, the Philly offense has been even better, gaining 6.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl. Philly qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 32-10-3 play against situation and another letdown situation, which is a 63-27-4 play against situation. Dolphins also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is a 62-27-2 play. And, once again, we have our play on teams not covering the spread, against teams covering the spread situation, which is 276-181-21 (11-6-2 TY). Final numbers favor Miami by 4.5 points (all games) and Philly by eight points (last five games). But, those numbers are skewed a little because Griese was playing in a couple of those games. It's hard to go against Philly in this game but this is where situations are the way to go and they support Miami big time in this game. This game may be higher scoring than 'they' think. MIAMI 27 PHILADELPHIA 17
BEST BETS
YTD 51-35-5 +29.50%
3% CHICAGO +3
3% SAN DIEGO +5
2% SEATTLE +7
2% NY GIANTS +7.5
2% MIAMI -2
2% SF/CINCINNATI OVER 41.5
2% GB/SAN DIEGO OVER 45.5
