Niners @ Dolphins
Play: Dolphins -6
The market is still reluctant to back the Dolphins, as losing four straight against the spread prior to last weeks game leaves some gunshy. However, the Niners have been a public darling the last couple of weeks, as many are putting a lot of credence in their resurgence predicated on Singletary. I have been a strong backer of the Dolphins this year, and have no reason to stop now. My prediction made last week in them being backed by the most value still stands true. Playing a team that has gone to Buffalo from San Francisco, back to San Francisco to now travel to Miami leaves a lot to be desired.
The Dolphins have an underrated, highly efficient, and well balanced offense. Although the Niners defense has improved of late, they simply have too many disadvantages in this match up to make me think their upward trend continues this week. The Dolphins do not need the wildcat to find success on the ground. The Niners are still vulnerable defending the run, especially a running game that can attack you with both speed, power, and by attacking different holds. The Dolphins passing game is heavily dependent on the running games success. Therefore, having an advantage in the running game magnifies their chances of success on offense. Their lack of dependence on one receiver and their ability to spread the ball to the running back and tight end also bodes well when facing a team like the Niners, who lack depth in the secondary and are better suited in defending teams that heavily rely on two receivers on the passing game. The Dolphins offense will continue to get better, and this week is a good match up for them to start their upward trend heading into the playoffs.
The Niners offense has benefited from Hill’s play. They have also benefited to Martz being less stubborn and committed to the running game and allowing Gore to run the offense. However, both tangibles should be hampered this week. Expect the running game to be stalled this week, as Gore being unlikely to play and going up against one of the better run defenses should make the Niners running game dormant. This will put pressure on Hill and force him to change from a manager to a producer, something he is not terribly suited for. This will also allow the Dolphins pass rush to be unleashed, something that has been getting progressively better.
In my opinion, the Dolphins are the best team in their division and one of the best teams in the AFC. The market continues to have their doubts with this team, as they wrongly labeled the Jets the team to beat in their division and now have switched to the Patriots. I don’t think the Dolphins will get their respect they deserve. For this reason, they should provide value to their backers for some time. I will take them once again this week.
Titans @ Texans
Play: Titans -3
It’s time to “sell” the Texans high and back a quality team in which the market has miss priced all season (Titans are 11-2 ATS). Although the Titans have clinched their division, they are still fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs and have dominated the Texans over the last few years. The Texans are playing better, but one has to wonder how long they can keep current form, as they are now mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
The Texans have a good offense and have been playing better of late. However, one has to question if they offense is getting better, or they simply have taken advantage of playing slumping defenses. Regardless, this is still an offense that struggles to keep their points commensurate to their yards, a deficiency that should be magnified against a defense that has been one of the stingiest in allowing points this season. What has given opposing defenses playing the Texans problems of late is the fact they have become a more balanced attack, and have run and passed well in each of their recent games. One has to wonder if they can sustain such now playing one of the rare defenses that are dominant against both the run and pass. I see no reason to believe the Texans don’t put forth on of their least effective days on both the ground and in the air, which does not bode well for their chances, as they need a lot of yards to put up points.
Although the Texans offense is respectable, their defense is far from that. They are still possibly the worst defense against the run, which fits right into the Titans recipe for success- grinding out opposing defenses with the running game. With the Texans being out matched in the trenches, expect the combination of White and Johnson to find success throughout the day and limit the Texans chances on offense to keeping this game close. The huge advantage on the ground should once again allow Collins to work within his means, a role he has mastered this year. The Texans being outmatched in the air should allow the Titans to have scoring opportunities throughout.
The Titans have been under priced all season, and simply should warrant getting more points against such an inferior team. Expect the momentum and home field advantage to allow the Texans to keep it close for some time, but ultimately the superior talent and fundamental advantages will come to fruition. This should allow a Titans to win by more than three.
Steelers @ Ravens
Play: Ravens -2
This game consists of two very similar teams – mediocre at best offenses, and the two best defenses in the league. What the market seems to be miss valuing is the perception that the Steelers possess the better offense, and that their experience at the quarterback spot makes them the better team (thus warrant being less than a field goal underdog at home). However, the Steelers offense has consistently shown they do not have a solid offense, and the continual increase in productivity within the Ravens offense has now allowed them to warrant being labeled the better offense. Flacco continues to show no signs of rookie jitters, has played well at home, and is coming off a solid game against a good defense in the Redskins. The misperception of both teams have been constant all season, as reflected in their ATS performances. Despite one more win, the Steelers have covered three less games.
The Ravens defense is the best defense in the league, and probably the best defense that we have seen in some time. They are also agreeably the best defense against both the pass and the run, and also probably the best defense in creating mistakes. They have given Ben problems in past years, something that should continue as long as the Steelers are without an effective offensive line. Ideally, what teams try to do against the Ravens defense is establish a running game to avoid putting their quarterbacks in situations where they can make costly mistakes. The more mistake prone your quarterback is, the more important it is to have a running game against the Ravens. However, the Steelers running game is simply not talented enough to produce much against the Ravens. The team speed they have on defense should offset the speed of Parker, while the trench advantage should make any attempt of a power running game obsolete. This should put more importance on Ben, who has made costly mistakes all season and has a history of making costly mistakes against the Ravens. The Ravens defense also plays better at home. I like the Ravens chances here.
There is no denying that the Steelers have an elite defense of their own and do hold an edge against the Ravens offense. However, unlike the Steelers, the Ravens posses an above average running game and above average offensive line, which should somewhat offset the Steelers ability to create mistakes and three and outs. Surprisingly, Flacco is the quarterback in this game that has avoided error with more success, and has been getting progressively better as the season has progressed. He is getting to see more and more looks on defense, and gained good experience during their first meeting against the Steelers. Even though their offense will have problems moving the ball, expect them to take enough advantage of good field position and a somewhat effective running game to pull this game out.
The market is finally starting to catch up to the Ravens. They made them sizeable favorites last week against the Redskins, and showed linesmakers they had no business being priced at a pick at home against the Steelers, as they were quickly bid up at price. Although very similar to the Steelers, they are slightly better. Coupled with home field advantage being magnified in what is expected to be a very emotional game leaves me with little doubt that the Ravens are the team with value by being priced at less than a field goal favorite.
Patriots @ Raiders
Play: Raiders +7
I think the Raiders capitulated last week, as the market saw that the have appeared to have packed it in for the season, being unable to put up the slightest fight against a struggling Chargers squad. When you have a team like that, who also happens to have both one of the worst records and ATS records in the league, oddsmakers are forced to inflate their opposition to a level where they will get some takers on the Raiders. In the meantime, they inflated a Patriots team that showed some signs of playing to the level of their competition last week, and getting dominated the week prior.
The Patriots offense is starting to leak some oil, and defenses are being more aquainted in finding ways to defend Cassell. Playing a team that depends heavily on their passing game bodes well for the Raiders, as one thing this team does well is defend the pass. Having a shutdown corner is also ideal when facing the Patriots. The Raiders have such, and putting Asumugha on Moss throughout this game should give the Raiders the luxury of doubling Walker, something most teams are unable to do. Although the Patriots have a huge advantage on the ground, I welcome the run to an extent, as it shortens the game and limits the amount of chances the Patriots can win by more than one possession.
The Raiders offense is as bad as it gets. But the Patritos defense is as overrated as it gets as well. The Patriots are vulnerable against the pass, and were unable to contain an sub par quarterback in Wallace last week. This gives Russell a fighting chance and an ability to keep this game close or backdoor cover the Patriots. McFadden should also finally be fully healthy in this game, which should increase the Raiders chances of establishing a running game and also a home run threat, something they have lacked all year.
The Patriots are 6-7 against the spread this year. This is not because they are a bad team, but because the market expects too much out of them, especially against teams they are expected to dominate. They have been seven or more point favorites four times this year, and have yet to cover any of those games. I don’t expect them to cover the fifth either. I will take the Raiders and hope for the best.
Giants @ Cowboys
Play: Giants +3
Rarely do you see the best team in the league, which is also perceived as the best team in the league, the most undervalued team any given week. However, in my opinion, this appears to be the case for the Giants this week, as the market is simply blindly claiming the Cowboys should win this game as there is no way they will not make the playoffs. The Cowboys remind me a lot of the Chargers. At the beginning of the year, I claimed those were the two most overrated teams in the league, and they still appear to be such. Much like the Chargers, it is not impossible for this team to miss the playoffs, and in fact is probable. They have no business being a favorite against the best team in football.
The Cowboys offense is overrated and has proven to struggle against quality defenses. Their talent doesn’t match their production, and missing their biggest offensive weapon in Barber this week (even if he plays, his time and effectiveness will be limited) should put them at a sizeable disadvantage against one of the best defenses in the league. The Giants should be able to contain Choice and put the pressure on Romo to win this game. Romo has shown time and time again that he is not a big game quarterback and prone to error when under pressure or forced to put the game on his shoulders. The Giants defend the pass well and have corners that can play man coverage. This should give them leverage in sending additional rushers and thus increasing Romo’s propensity for error.
Manning has started to prove to be a big game quarterback, and this is a big game for the Giants, as they want to avoid losing two in a row against divisional teams they may meet in the playoffs and are stilling fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Also, unlike Romo, he will be matched up against a mediocre pass defense, and will be backed by a running game that has a big advantage even without Jacobs running the ball. Expect the Giants to once again put their fair share of points on the board against this Cowboys defense, which should also be points the Cowboys offense will have a hard time matching.
This line is simply way off. The wrong team is favored in this game in my opinion. I will gladly back the best team in the league while getting points. Especially against an overrated Cowboys team that has not proven capable of winning big games. Giants should win outright here.
Totals
Redskins @ Bengals
Play: Over 36
This is the only game on Sunday in which both teams have produced more Unders than Overs thus far this season. It also happens to be the game with the most Under friendly team this year (the Redskins) and possessing two struggling offenses. In my opinion, these variables are not being ignored by the marketplace, rather have created value on the Over.
There is no denying that the Redskins offense has been struggling of late. However, a lo to that has to do with the notion they have been playing some quality defenses that can stunt an offenses production. They have also been stunted by a conservative playbook that has been getting its fair share of criticism. Finally, the Redskins get to play a sub par defense, providing them an opportune time to open the playbook and get some confidence back in their offense. Don’t be surprised if the Redskins take a lot more chances this week, as they face one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have struggled taking early leads against sub par teams all season long, and the main culprit for this happening is because they were playing it close to the vest. Another reason why the Redskins have been limited in attempting big plays downfield is because of their lack of pass protection- another variable that should not come to fruition, as they face a defense with just 13 sacks all season. The Redksins have the receivers that can make big plays downfield, while the Bengals don’t have the corners to keep up with them. Expect a much more aggressive passing game to also open up the running game that has constantly faced stacked boxes all season. Expect the Redskins offense to come out of hibernation this week.
I don’t expect the Bengals to be dominant on offense, but do expect them to put forth an Over friendly offense this week. Their running game is as bad as it gets, and no matter how hard they try to establish a running game, it just isn’t there. Sooner or later, they will be forced to implement a game plan heavily skewed to the pass and see what happens. This game provides that chances, as they are playing against a quality run defense and should be expected to trail from the onset. This should lead to more three and outs, big plays, and turnovers that are all Over friendly.
The market is putting a lot of credence in past performances of both teams, and aren’t factoring in the good chance of a turnaround this week. Expect the Redskins offense to put up a good deal of points, not demanding much from the Bengals. This game should has a good chance of topping 40.
Vikings @ Cardinals
Play: Under 47
This is the second week in a row in which both teams are backed by an inflated total. The market continues to ignore the Cardinals showing signs of progressively getting worse on offense, and continue to overrate the Vikings offense.
The switch to Jacskon at quarterback should help the Under. Although not an Under quarterback, he is more Under friendly than Frerrotte, as his propensity for error and dependence on the third level passing game really made it dangerous for Under bettors. Jackson is not as dangerous with the deep pass, nor will the Vikings put the game on his shoulder rather than heavily relying on their run game to pull out the victory. Expect the Vikings to run the ball as much as possible and keep Jackson in a role where he passes only when he has too. However, the Vikings running game is not as good as most people think, while the Cardinals run defense is underrated in their own right. Expect them to also benefit from a consistently stacked box which should limit the productivity on the Vikings ground game and force them into a grind out role. When the Vikings do pass, expect a heavy dependence on the first level, as Jacksons lack of accuracy and propensity for error should prevent the Vikings from taking chances in the air.
The Cardinals do possess a solid offense, but there is no denying that they were overachieving earlier in the season, and have come back to earth of late. The Vikings are known for their run defense, but they don’t get their due credit in defending the pass. They have a talented enough pass defense to continue Warner’s downward trend, and ability to pressure the quarterback to force him to rely more on the short pass.
Expect both offenses to play below average this week for different reasons. The Vikings will miss Ferotte, while the Cardinals will miss the Warner of two weeks back. The result should be fewer points than the posted total.
Steelers @ Ravens
Play: Under 34.5
Usually taking the Under in games that posses the best defenses in the league does not create value, as such match ups are not ignored by the market. However, both these defenses have been so dominant that they have enough points on their own to make them Over teams thus far this year. This tendency also came to fruition during their first meeting against each other, as defensive points allowed that game to finish Over the posted total. However, one has to wonder if this high rate of defensive points is sustainable, especially in game where both offenses main goal is to try to avoid such mistakes and have their defense win the game for them.
The Steelers want to avoid Ben being put in a one dimensional passing attack against this blitz happy defense that has given him problems in the past. This leads me to believe that the Steelers are going to run the ball as much as possible despite the high probability of their running game being dominated throughout this game. With the Steelers offensive line also being outmatched in this game, expect the Steelers to try to establish a passing game in which allows Ben to get the ball out early. The result should lead lowering the chances for error, making their successful drives take a lot of time off the clock. However, their offense simply being outclassed should force a lot of punts and this game being predominantly played between the 30’s.
The Steelers defense is second to only the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense is very similar to the Steelers offense. This leads me to believe the Ravens will try to employ a very similar game plan on offense compared to the Steelers, and with very similar (but probably slightly better) results.
If these two defenses stay out of the end zone, or are even limited to just one touchdown (or turnover that sets up an easy touchdown for their offense) this game has a good chance of staying Under this low set line.
Giants @ Cowboys
Play: Under 46
I believe when these two teams meet, attention is always drawn to all the offensive playmakers both teams have and little to their above average defenses. There is no surprise that after the line has gone back up, there now exists too much value on the Under.
Both offenses are far from peak form. The absence of Jacobs leaves the Giants without their best running back, and the absence of Burress leaves the Giants without their best receiver and biggest playmaker. The result should lead to a less dangerous offense. Expect the Giants to still pound the ball as much as possible and find success on the ground. However, the Giants have yet to prove that they are nearly as good in the passing game without Burress, and may have a hard time proving it against a defense that knows this offense well and who had problems with Burress in the past. The Cowboys defense is slowly getting better, and although they may have their hands full against the Giants, don’t expect a dominant performance out of this offense. Rather, expect a grind it out running game and a lot of first level passes that grind away at the field and grind away at the clock.
The Cowboys offense is also far from their peak performance. Although they are much better off with Romo back behind center, he is far from the savior that everyone thinks he is. The true catalyst of the Cowboys offense is Barber, and his absence will be severely missed. Expect a much less effective ground game to lead to a less effective passing game. The Giants secondary has the talent and experience to counter the talented receiving options. The Cowboys will have to work for their points, and the continued downward trend is probable. The market disagrees. Good value on the Under as well as the Giants.
Play: Dolphins -6
The market is still reluctant to back the Dolphins, as losing four straight against the spread prior to last weeks game leaves some gunshy. However, the Niners have been a public darling the last couple of weeks, as many are putting a lot of credence in their resurgence predicated on Singletary. I have been a strong backer of the Dolphins this year, and have no reason to stop now. My prediction made last week in them being backed by the most value still stands true. Playing a team that has gone to Buffalo from San Francisco, back to San Francisco to now travel to Miami leaves a lot to be desired.
The Dolphins have an underrated, highly efficient, and well balanced offense. Although the Niners defense has improved of late, they simply have too many disadvantages in this match up to make me think their upward trend continues this week. The Dolphins do not need the wildcat to find success on the ground. The Niners are still vulnerable defending the run, especially a running game that can attack you with both speed, power, and by attacking different holds. The Dolphins passing game is heavily dependent on the running games success. Therefore, having an advantage in the running game magnifies their chances of success on offense. Their lack of dependence on one receiver and their ability to spread the ball to the running back and tight end also bodes well when facing a team like the Niners, who lack depth in the secondary and are better suited in defending teams that heavily rely on two receivers on the passing game. The Dolphins offense will continue to get better, and this week is a good match up for them to start their upward trend heading into the playoffs.
The Niners offense has benefited from Hill’s play. They have also benefited to Martz being less stubborn and committed to the running game and allowing Gore to run the offense. However, both tangibles should be hampered this week. Expect the running game to be stalled this week, as Gore being unlikely to play and going up against one of the better run defenses should make the Niners running game dormant. This will put pressure on Hill and force him to change from a manager to a producer, something he is not terribly suited for. This will also allow the Dolphins pass rush to be unleashed, something that has been getting progressively better.
In my opinion, the Dolphins are the best team in their division and one of the best teams in the AFC. The market continues to have their doubts with this team, as they wrongly labeled the Jets the team to beat in their division and now have switched to the Patriots. I don’t think the Dolphins will get their respect they deserve. For this reason, they should provide value to their backers for some time. I will take them once again this week.
Titans @ Texans
Play: Titans -3
It’s time to “sell” the Texans high and back a quality team in which the market has miss priced all season (Titans are 11-2 ATS). Although the Titans have clinched their division, they are still fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs and have dominated the Texans over the last few years. The Texans are playing better, but one has to wonder how long they can keep current form, as they are now mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
The Texans have a good offense and have been playing better of late. However, one has to question if they offense is getting better, or they simply have taken advantage of playing slumping defenses. Regardless, this is still an offense that struggles to keep their points commensurate to their yards, a deficiency that should be magnified against a defense that has been one of the stingiest in allowing points this season. What has given opposing defenses playing the Texans problems of late is the fact they have become a more balanced attack, and have run and passed well in each of their recent games. One has to wonder if they can sustain such now playing one of the rare defenses that are dominant against both the run and pass. I see no reason to believe the Texans don’t put forth on of their least effective days on both the ground and in the air, which does not bode well for their chances, as they need a lot of yards to put up points.
Although the Texans offense is respectable, their defense is far from that. They are still possibly the worst defense against the run, which fits right into the Titans recipe for success- grinding out opposing defenses with the running game. With the Texans being out matched in the trenches, expect the combination of White and Johnson to find success throughout the day and limit the Texans chances on offense to keeping this game close. The huge advantage on the ground should once again allow Collins to work within his means, a role he has mastered this year. The Texans being outmatched in the air should allow the Titans to have scoring opportunities throughout.
The Titans have been under priced all season, and simply should warrant getting more points against such an inferior team. Expect the momentum and home field advantage to allow the Texans to keep it close for some time, but ultimately the superior talent and fundamental advantages will come to fruition. This should allow a Titans to win by more than three.
Steelers @ Ravens
Play: Ravens -2
This game consists of two very similar teams – mediocre at best offenses, and the two best defenses in the league. What the market seems to be miss valuing is the perception that the Steelers possess the better offense, and that their experience at the quarterback spot makes them the better team (thus warrant being less than a field goal underdog at home). However, the Steelers offense has consistently shown they do not have a solid offense, and the continual increase in productivity within the Ravens offense has now allowed them to warrant being labeled the better offense. Flacco continues to show no signs of rookie jitters, has played well at home, and is coming off a solid game against a good defense in the Redskins. The misperception of both teams have been constant all season, as reflected in their ATS performances. Despite one more win, the Steelers have covered three less games.
The Ravens defense is the best defense in the league, and probably the best defense that we have seen in some time. They are also agreeably the best defense against both the pass and the run, and also probably the best defense in creating mistakes. They have given Ben problems in past years, something that should continue as long as the Steelers are without an effective offensive line. Ideally, what teams try to do against the Ravens defense is establish a running game to avoid putting their quarterbacks in situations where they can make costly mistakes. The more mistake prone your quarterback is, the more important it is to have a running game against the Ravens. However, the Steelers running game is simply not talented enough to produce much against the Ravens. The team speed they have on defense should offset the speed of Parker, while the trench advantage should make any attempt of a power running game obsolete. This should put more importance on Ben, who has made costly mistakes all season and has a history of making costly mistakes against the Ravens. The Ravens defense also plays better at home. I like the Ravens chances here.
There is no denying that the Steelers have an elite defense of their own and do hold an edge against the Ravens offense. However, unlike the Steelers, the Ravens posses an above average running game and above average offensive line, which should somewhat offset the Steelers ability to create mistakes and three and outs. Surprisingly, Flacco is the quarterback in this game that has avoided error with more success, and has been getting progressively better as the season has progressed. He is getting to see more and more looks on defense, and gained good experience during their first meeting against the Steelers. Even though their offense will have problems moving the ball, expect them to take enough advantage of good field position and a somewhat effective running game to pull this game out.
The market is finally starting to catch up to the Ravens. They made them sizeable favorites last week against the Redskins, and showed linesmakers they had no business being priced at a pick at home against the Steelers, as they were quickly bid up at price. Although very similar to the Steelers, they are slightly better. Coupled with home field advantage being magnified in what is expected to be a very emotional game leaves me with little doubt that the Ravens are the team with value by being priced at less than a field goal favorite.
Patriots @ Raiders
Play: Raiders +7
I think the Raiders capitulated last week, as the market saw that the have appeared to have packed it in for the season, being unable to put up the slightest fight against a struggling Chargers squad. When you have a team like that, who also happens to have both one of the worst records and ATS records in the league, oddsmakers are forced to inflate their opposition to a level where they will get some takers on the Raiders. In the meantime, they inflated a Patriots team that showed some signs of playing to the level of their competition last week, and getting dominated the week prior.
The Patriots offense is starting to leak some oil, and defenses are being more aquainted in finding ways to defend Cassell. Playing a team that depends heavily on their passing game bodes well for the Raiders, as one thing this team does well is defend the pass. Having a shutdown corner is also ideal when facing the Patriots. The Raiders have such, and putting Asumugha on Moss throughout this game should give the Raiders the luxury of doubling Walker, something most teams are unable to do. Although the Patriots have a huge advantage on the ground, I welcome the run to an extent, as it shortens the game and limits the amount of chances the Patriots can win by more than one possession.
The Raiders offense is as bad as it gets. But the Patritos defense is as overrated as it gets as well. The Patriots are vulnerable against the pass, and were unable to contain an sub par quarterback in Wallace last week. This gives Russell a fighting chance and an ability to keep this game close or backdoor cover the Patriots. McFadden should also finally be fully healthy in this game, which should increase the Raiders chances of establishing a running game and also a home run threat, something they have lacked all year.
The Patriots are 6-7 against the spread this year. This is not because they are a bad team, but because the market expects too much out of them, especially against teams they are expected to dominate. They have been seven or more point favorites four times this year, and have yet to cover any of those games. I don’t expect them to cover the fifth either. I will take the Raiders and hope for the best.
Giants @ Cowboys
Play: Giants +3
Rarely do you see the best team in the league, which is also perceived as the best team in the league, the most undervalued team any given week. However, in my opinion, this appears to be the case for the Giants this week, as the market is simply blindly claiming the Cowboys should win this game as there is no way they will not make the playoffs. The Cowboys remind me a lot of the Chargers. At the beginning of the year, I claimed those were the two most overrated teams in the league, and they still appear to be such. Much like the Chargers, it is not impossible for this team to miss the playoffs, and in fact is probable. They have no business being a favorite against the best team in football.
The Cowboys offense is overrated and has proven to struggle against quality defenses. Their talent doesn’t match their production, and missing their biggest offensive weapon in Barber this week (even if he plays, his time and effectiveness will be limited) should put them at a sizeable disadvantage against one of the best defenses in the league. The Giants should be able to contain Choice and put the pressure on Romo to win this game. Romo has shown time and time again that he is not a big game quarterback and prone to error when under pressure or forced to put the game on his shoulders. The Giants defend the pass well and have corners that can play man coverage. This should give them leverage in sending additional rushers and thus increasing Romo’s propensity for error.
Manning has started to prove to be a big game quarterback, and this is a big game for the Giants, as they want to avoid losing two in a row against divisional teams they may meet in the playoffs and are stilling fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Also, unlike Romo, he will be matched up against a mediocre pass defense, and will be backed by a running game that has a big advantage even without Jacobs running the ball. Expect the Giants to once again put their fair share of points on the board against this Cowboys defense, which should also be points the Cowboys offense will have a hard time matching.
This line is simply way off. The wrong team is favored in this game in my opinion. I will gladly back the best team in the league while getting points. Especially against an overrated Cowboys team that has not proven capable of winning big games. Giants should win outright here.
Totals
Redskins @ Bengals
Play: Over 36
This is the only game on Sunday in which both teams have produced more Unders than Overs thus far this season. It also happens to be the game with the most Under friendly team this year (the Redskins) and possessing two struggling offenses. In my opinion, these variables are not being ignored by the marketplace, rather have created value on the Over.
There is no denying that the Redskins offense has been struggling of late. However, a lo to that has to do with the notion they have been playing some quality defenses that can stunt an offenses production. They have also been stunted by a conservative playbook that has been getting its fair share of criticism. Finally, the Redskins get to play a sub par defense, providing them an opportune time to open the playbook and get some confidence back in their offense. Don’t be surprised if the Redskins take a lot more chances this week, as they face one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have struggled taking early leads against sub par teams all season long, and the main culprit for this happening is because they were playing it close to the vest. Another reason why the Redskins have been limited in attempting big plays downfield is because of their lack of pass protection- another variable that should not come to fruition, as they face a defense with just 13 sacks all season. The Redksins have the receivers that can make big plays downfield, while the Bengals don’t have the corners to keep up with them. Expect a much more aggressive passing game to also open up the running game that has constantly faced stacked boxes all season. Expect the Redskins offense to come out of hibernation this week.
I don’t expect the Bengals to be dominant on offense, but do expect them to put forth an Over friendly offense this week. Their running game is as bad as it gets, and no matter how hard they try to establish a running game, it just isn’t there. Sooner or later, they will be forced to implement a game plan heavily skewed to the pass and see what happens. This game provides that chances, as they are playing against a quality run defense and should be expected to trail from the onset. This should lead to more three and outs, big plays, and turnovers that are all Over friendly.
The market is putting a lot of credence in past performances of both teams, and aren’t factoring in the good chance of a turnaround this week. Expect the Redskins offense to put up a good deal of points, not demanding much from the Bengals. This game should has a good chance of topping 40.
Vikings @ Cardinals
Play: Under 47
This is the second week in a row in which both teams are backed by an inflated total. The market continues to ignore the Cardinals showing signs of progressively getting worse on offense, and continue to overrate the Vikings offense.
The switch to Jacskon at quarterback should help the Under. Although not an Under quarterback, he is more Under friendly than Frerrotte, as his propensity for error and dependence on the third level passing game really made it dangerous for Under bettors. Jackson is not as dangerous with the deep pass, nor will the Vikings put the game on his shoulder rather than heavily relying on their run game to pull out the victory. Expect the Vikings to run the ball as much as possible and keep Jackson in a role where he passes only when he has too. However, the Vikings running game is not as good as most people think, while the Cardinals run defense is underrated in their own right. Expect them to also benefit from a consistently stacked box which should limit the productivity on the Vikings ground game and force them into a grind out role. When the Vikings do pass, expect a heavy dependence on the first level, as Jacksons lack of accuracy and propensity for error should prevent the Vikings from taking chances in the air.
The Cardinals do possess a solid offense, but there is no denying that they were overachieving earlier in the season, and have come back to earth of late. The Vikings are known for their run defense, but they don’t get their due credit in defending the pass. They have a talented enough pass defense to continue Warner’s downward trend, and ability to pressure the quarterback to force him to rely more on the short pass.
Expect both offenses to play below average this week for different reasons. The Vikings will miss Ferotte, while the Cardinals will miss the Warner of two weeks back. The result should be fewer points than the posted total.
Steelers @ Ravens
Play: Under 34.5
Usually taking the Under in games that posses the best defenses in the league does not create value, as such match ups are not ignored by the market. However, both these defenses have been so dominant that they have enough points on their own to make them Over teams thus far this year. This tendency also came to fruition during their first meeting against each other, as defensive points allowed that game to finish Over the posted total. However, one has to wonder if this high rate of defensive points is sustainable, especially in game where both offenses main goal is to try to avoid such mistakes and have their defense win the game for them.
The Steelers want to avoid Ben being put in a one dimensional passing attack against this blitz happy defense that has given him problems in the past. This leads me to believe that the Steelers are going to run the ball as much as possible despite the high probability of their running game being dominated throughout this game. With the Steelers offensive line also being outmatched in this game, expect the Steelers to try to establish a passing game in which allows Ben to get the ball out early. The result should lead lowering the chances for error, making their successful drives take a lot of time off the clock. However, their offense simply being outclassed should force a lot of punts and this game being predominantly played between the 30’s.
The Steelers defense is second to only the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense is very similar to the Steelers offense. This leads me to believe the Ravens will try to employ a very similar game plan on offense compared to the Steelers, and with very similar (but probably slightly better) results.
If these two defenses stay out of the end zone, or are even limited to just one touchdown (or turnover that sets up an easy touchdown for their offense) this game has a good chance of staying Under this low set line.
Giants @ Cowboys
Play: Under 46
I believe when these two teams meet, attention is always drawn to all the offensive playmakers both teams have and little to their above average defenses. There is no surprise that after the line has gone back up, there now exists too much value on the Under.
Both offenses are far from peak form. The absence of Jacobs leaves the Giants without their best running back, and the absence of Burress leaves the Giants without their best receiver and biggest playmaker. The result should lead to a less dangerous offense. Expect the Giants to still pound the ball as much as possible and find success on the ground. However, the Giants have yet to prove that they are nearly as good in the passing game without Burress, and may have a hard time proving it against a defense that knows this offense well and who had problems with Burress in the past. The Cowboys defense is slowly getting better, and although they may have their hands full against the Giants, don’t expect a dominant performance out of this offense. Rather, expect a grind it out running game and a lot of first level passes that grind away at the field and grind away at the clock.
The Cowboys offense is also far from their peak performance. Although they are much better off with Romo back behind center, he is far from the savior that everyone thinks he is. The true catalyst of the Cowboys offense is Barber, and his absence will be severely missed. Expect a much less effective ground game to lead to a less effective passing game. The Giants secondary has the talent and experience to counter the talented receiving options. The Cowboys will have to work for their points, and the continued downward trend is probable. The market disagrees. Good value on the Under as well as the Giants.
