A Quick Note on Week 14:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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I am literally sick to my stomach about Week 14. After watching my total season units drop from +27.60 units down to +15.80 units in one weekend, I was feeling a little bit gun-shy about Week 15 to say the least. Something just seemed a bit “off” over the last few weeks and I was starting to question a few of the specifics in regard to my capping methods. And that is never a good thing.
Tweaking My Methods:<o></o>
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I won’t get bogged down into too much detail here, but in the past I had always divided the NFL season into thirds (the 1st half of the season, the 2nd half of the season and then the playoffs) and tweaked all of the weights and values accordingly in the spreadsheet formulas that I use for the statistical portion of my capping efforts. More on those efforts in a bit.<o></o>
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But now I will be dividing the season into fifths (four parts in equal divisions of four weeks for the regular season and a fifth part for the playoffs) to accommodate the ever changing and rapidly changing moods, events and quirks of the NFL season. This further delineation of the season for me represents the ability to refocus anew with more intervals, but to also do so on an even more micro level in regard to the data that I collect and how it is interpreted.<o></o>
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I will also be placing a greater emphasis on my own initial thoughts rather than making them equal to the statistical and analytical data that I acquire and disseminate on a weekly basis.
The Process in Brief:
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In regard to my capping process, I don’t want to get into exact specifics, but simply put, it is a four step process. First, I sit down as early as Sunday or Monday (without seeing any lines or information on the games) and literally handicap each upcoming game on paper. In this first step I jot down two separate lines: the one I expect the books to offer and one that I think will be actual.
For the second step I spend the rest of my time inhaling various types of data. Statistical data is fed into my spreadsheet formulas and analytical data is fed to my brain. The spreadsheets have built-in excel equations and formulas that I can tweak the values on (i.e., every four weeks). These were constructed for me a few years ago by an IT guy that I know through work. In addition to feeding these sheets the customary range of seasonal, last L3 games and home/away statistics, I also have a few non-statistical cells that I fill with opinionated things such as confidence ratings and emotional ratings. All of these things are factored, rated and given a numerical value ~ and when such a value is subtracted from the current opponent’s numerical value a point spread is possible. Totals are divined from the more reliable and traditional portions of the statistical data equations.
Step three is a comparison of the worksheet numbers and my original numbers and then an investigation into any obnoxious differences between the two. Both outputs are weighed equally and averaged. Or at least they were. Now I will, as stated above, be placing a greater emphasis on my own initial and refined thoughts.
Step four is the fun part. My final number (both a spread and a total) are then compared to the actual lines being offered by the books. Individual plays are rated in terms of my overall confidence level, not necessarily the biggest difference in spread or total.<o></o>
<o></o>
With the exception of Thursday night games (which I do individually prior to the Sunday and Monday games) I will vary as far as whether I tackle that particular week’s full slate of games or if I divide that week's games up and attack it in smaller doses.
Anyway, I just wanted to finish the line of thinking that I left off with at the end of Week 14 when many of you may have seen me getting down on myself and contemplating a full overhaul of my capping efforts. Sorry for the long winded narrative that may or may not have been fully warranted. On with this weeks plays.....
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></o>I am literally sick to my stomach about Week 14. After watching my total season units drop from +27.60 units down to +15.80 units in one weekend, I was feeling a little bit gun-shy about Week 15 to say the least. Something just seemed a bit “off” over the last few weeks and I was starting to question a few of the specifics in regard to my capping methods. And that is never a good thing.
Tweaking My Methods:<o
></o><o
></o>I won’t get bogged down into too much detail here, but in the past I had always divided the NFL season into thirds (the 1st half of the season, the 2nd half of the season and then the playoffs) and tweaked all of the weights and values accordingly in the spreadsheet formulas that I use for the statistical portion of my capping efforts. More on those efforts in a bit.<o
></o><o
></o>But now I will be dividing the season into fifths (four parts in equal divisions of four weeks for the regular season and a fifth part for the playoffs) to accommodate the ever changing and rapidly changing moods, events and quirks of the NFL season. This further delineation of the season for me represents the ability to refocus anew with more intervals, but to also do so on an even more micro level in regard to the data that I collect and how it is interpreted.<o
></o><o
></o>I will also be placing a greater emphasis on my own initial thoughts rather than making them equal to the statistical and analytical data that I acquire and disseminate on a weekly basis.
The Process in Brief:
<o
></o>In regard to my capping process, I don’t want to get into exact specifics, but simply put, it is a four step process. First, I sit down as early as Sunday or Monday (without seeing any lines or information on the games) and literally handicap each upcoming game on paper. In this first step I jot down two separate lines: the one I expect the books to offer and one that I think will be actual.
For the second step I spend the rest of my time inhaling various types of data. Statistical data is fed into my spreadsheet formulas and analytical data is fed to my brain. The spreadsheets have built-in excel equations and formulas that I can tweak the values on (i.e., every four weeks). These were constructed for me a few years ago by an IT guy that I know through work. In addition to feeding these sheets the customary range of seasonal, last L3 games and home/away statistics, I also have a few non-statistical cells that I fill with opinionated things such as confidence ratings and emotional ratings. All of these things are factored, rated and given a numerical value ~ and when such a value is subtracted from the current opponent’s numerical value a point spread is possible. Totals are divined from the more reliable and traditional portions of the statistical data equations.
Step three is a comparison of the worksheet numbers and my original numbers and then an investigation into any obnoxious differences between the two. Both outputs are weighed equally and averaged. Or at least they were. Now I will, as stated above, be placing a greater emphasis on my own initial and refined thoughts.
Step four is the fun part. My final number (both a spread and a total) are then compared to the actual lines being offered by the books. Individual plays are rated in terms of my overall confidence level, not necessarily the biggest difference in spread or total.<o
></o><o
></o>With the exception of Thursday night games (which I do individually prior to the Sunday and Monday games) I will vary as far as whether I tackle that particular week’s full slate of games or if I divide that week's games up and attack it in smaller doses.
Anyway, I just wanted to finish the line of thinking that I left off with at the end of Week 14 when many of you may have seen me getting down on myself and contemplating a full overhaul of my capping efforts. Sorry for the long winded narrative that may or may not have been fully warranted. On with this weeks plays.....
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