***** Nfl Week 15 Plays *****

[TheComputerGroup]

X-Large (33-26)
Large (38-37)
Avg. (17-16)




Profit for NFL at +5,059.60........week 14 was my worst week of the season losing back over 8k..........that's what I get for backing the worst team in the NFL, the Browns.......then I went on tilt with Seattle, but thankfully that was a blowout from the 1st Q, didn't have to suffer thru the game.


Will post a few plays for week 15 but waiting on ML's to come out........

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Adding:


Gbay/Bears Under 40.5 (-110)........(Large)

Raiders -3 (+100)........(Large)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

The bad teams are very bad this season ATS, & the good teams are very good ATS ......


Browns are 0-13 SU & 2-11 ATS.........

49ers 1-12 SU & 2-10-1 ATS.......

Dallas 11-2 SU & 9-3-1 ATS......

Raiders 10-3 SU & 8-5 ATS......

Chiefs 10-3 SU & 8-5 ATS ......

Patriots 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS.......

Jaguars 2-11 SU & 5-8 ATS......

Cards 5-7-1 SU & 4-9 ATS.........


This year you can't make money on bad teams like you could in the past, I learned the hard way........IMO, the 49ers & Browns won't win any games last 3 weeks, so their opponents ML will be in every parlay I wager on.

Bills ML & Atlanta ML are excellent plays in parlays this week.........

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Adding 4 team ML parlay:


Seattle, Jets, Gbay, Bills.....(Large)........1k to win 2,795.80

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Adding:


Jets ML (+120).......(X-Large)

 

[OverThinker]

Disagree on your take about bad teams, obviously Cle and sf are exceptions but outside of those 2 most the rest been fairly competitive ats. The jags ats isn't great but majority of their ats losses are mysteriously low lined games, I've had a lot of success betting them when they catching more than 4 or so. This week another good spot to play jax against a hou squad that has no business laying more than a fg to anyone, jags d will keep them in this one throughout until bortles prob makes a mistake that cost them a game they could otherwise win (he is so bad. The defense is pretty good tho)..

think we would all agree bears a pretty bad team, they been covering machines the last month..

there still plenty of room to play "bad" teams and succeed, just have to avoid those 2 battling it out for the #1 pick!

 

[KingEleven]

Good luck TCG

 

[bigwang]

Disagree on your take about bad teams, obviously Cle and sf are exceptions but outside of those 2 most the rest been fairly competitive ats. The jags ats isn't great but majority of their ats losses are mysteriously low lined games, I've had a lot of success betting them when they catching more than 4 or so. This week another good spot to play jax against a hou squad that has no business laying more than a fg to anyone, jags d will keep them in this one throughout until bortles prob makes a mistake that cost them a game they could otherwise win (he is so bad. The defense is pretty good tho)..

think we would all agree bears a pretty bad team, they been covering machines the last month..

there still plenty of room to play "bad" teams and succeed, just have to avoid those 2 battling it out for the #1 pick!

Jags have been dog of more than 4 points 3 times this year, covering twice which accounts for 1/2 of their 4 ats wins in 12 games. Blindly fading Jags has been more profitable than spot betting them. Jags are either fade or pass for me. Terrible coaches, terrible qb.

As you already said, Bears have been nice for my accounts the past month.

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck tonight....

 

[Huego]

Adding:


Gbay/Bears Under 40.5 (-110)........(Large)

Raiders -3 (+100)........(Large)

i like raiders as well. gl man

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Damn, all loses & a push.......I've been getting crushed past couple weeks & have given back most of my profits, but that's the way it goes I guess.



Monday play:

Skins -6.5 (-120).......(Large)

 

[Serbone]

NOBODY on the board played Atlanta.
So many reasons, just a few:
Atlanta at home, in dome (better for top passing team), on artificial turf, SF 2000 miles from home.
Atlanta on the upturn culture wise, newer coach has the players "bought in".
Atlanta needs the game to get into playoffs, SF out of it.
Atlanta relatively healthy, SF has over a dozen significant players OUT.
Atlanta # 3 offense in the NFL, SF # 29.
Atlanta QB rated # 2, SF QB (who is a douche bag) rated # 24.
Atlanta SOS #4, SF # 23.
Atlanta has a solid running game to hold on to a lead, run time, and even extend a lead.
Atlanta been covering all year, SF has not.
SF showing signs of throwing in the towel... see the Chicago game.
I had Atlanta, sure -14 is a lot to lay, but I just cannot understand why NOBODY had them on this entire board, practically every other team was selected (so I am not criticizing this particular thread but wondering about the whole RX Forum board, so no offense to The Computer Group)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

NOBODY on the board played Atlanta.
So many reasons, just a few:
Atlanta at home, in dome (better for top passing team), on artificial turf, SF 2000 miles from home.
Atlanta on the upturn culture wise, newer coach has the players "bought in".
Atlanta needs the game to get into playoffs, SF out of it.
Atlanta relatively healthy, SF has over a dozen significant players OUT.
Atlanta # 3 offense in the NFL, SF # 29.
Atlanta QB rated # 2, SF QB (who is a douche bag) rated # 24.
Atlanta SOS #4, SF # 23.
Atlanta has a solid running game to hold on to a lead, run time, and even extend a lead.
Atlanta been covering all year, SF has not.
SF showing signs of throwing in the towel... see the Chicago game.
I had Atlanta, sure -14 is a lot to lay, but I just cannot understand why NOBODY had them on this entire board, practically every other team was selected (so I am not criticizing this particular thread but wondering about the whole RX Forum board, so no offense to The Computer Group)

This year I believe is an anomaly where bad teams are not covering.......& especially at the end of the year where draft picks & players not caring.

Atlanta, Seattle & especially the Bills were in hindsight easy picks.

I think the reason not many took Atlanta was that how many times have we seen Atlanta sh*t the bad as a home fav? Many times, & add -14 point favs, that's a lot of points.

Patriots are -16.5 at home in week 16 & I think its one of the best bets on the board, I think they destroy the Jets.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Adding 3 team teaser:


Skins +3.5 (Monday), Ravens +14.5, Gbay +3.5.......(X-Large)

 

[OverThinker]

NOBODY on the board played Atlanta.
So many reasons, just a few:
Atlanta at home, in dome (better for top passing team), on artificial turf, SF 2000 miles from home.
Atlanta on the upturn culture wise, newer coach has the players "bought in".
Atlanta needs the game to get into playoffs, SF out of it.
Atlanta relatively healthy, SF has over a dozen significant players OUT.
Atlanta # 3 offense in the NFL, SF # 29.
Atlanta QB rated # 2, SF QB (who is a douche bag) rated # 24.
Atlanta SOS #4, SF # 23.
Atlanta has a solid running game to hold on to a lead, run time, and even extend a lead.
Atlanta been covering all year, SF has not.
SF showing signs of throwing in the towel... see the Chicago game.
I had Atlanta, sure -14 is a lot to lay, but I just cannot understand why NOBODY had them on this entire board, practically every other team was selected (so I am not criticizing this particular thread but wondering about the whole RX Forum board, so no offense to The Computer Group)

Its a real simple answer for me, I simply don't lay those kind of points. Hell I don't like laying a td in this sport to be honest. Over the years I've always had the most success with dogs and totals for whatever reason, always seems when I lay points (like dal-6.5 last night) my team finds a way not to cover even in games they look clearly the better team (case and point last night dal utterly dominated yet lost by hook, lol).. I did play the game over and atl tt over as it was a no brainer falcons would score, I did kinda expect kap and Hyde to do more damage against a beatable atl defense tho..

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Its a real simple answer for me, I simply don't lay those kind of points. Hell I don't like laying a td in this sport to be honest. Over the years I've always had the most success with dogs and totals for whatever reason, always seems when I lay points (like dal-6.5 last night) my team finds a way not to cover even in games they look clearly the better team (case and point last night dal utterly dominated yet lost by hook, lol).. I did play the game over and atl tt over as it was a no brainer falcons would score, I did kinda expect kap and Hyde to do more damage against a beatable atl defense tho..

Atlanta's run defense was getting gashed yesterday by the 49ers.......if Atlanta gets in the playoffs, they won't be able to stop the run against Dallasif they play them......IMO, Atlanta won't get far in the playoffs.

 

[OverThinker]

Atlanta's run defense was getting gashed yesterday by the 49ers.......if Atlanta gets in the playoffs, they won't be able to stop the run against Dallasif they play them......IMO, Atlanta won't get far in the playoffs.

I agree, I think they did right thing overhauling and getting younger and faster but they very young and not all that physical. Really hurt losing trufant also he was by far best corner. Their only chance is lighting up the scoreboard early and getting teams in passing mode, only real plus for them is outside of Dallas the NFC playoff teams not boasting a lot of strong rushing teams who committeed to it.

 

[DaKaty]

Computer Group , ... what's your selection on tonight's MNF ? Carolina or Washington , ... my house has it at 7 and 50 .... Thanks

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Computer Group , ... what's your selection on tonight's MNF ? Carolina or Washington , ... my house has it at 7 and 50 .... Thanks

I have the Skins -6.5, Skins +3.5 in a 3 team teaser for next week .......but I'm.also gonna play Carolina +7.5 for a possible middle tonight.........I like the Skins SU, hoping they win by 7.



Adding:


Carolina +7.5 (-130) bought 1/2 point......(Large)


I think a 2 team teaser of Skins -1 & Over 44 is a good bet also.......I don't see the Skins losing SU, but since I already played the Skins in the 3 team teaser, I will leave it at that.

 

[chonce]

This year I believe is an anomaly where bad teams are not covering.......& especially at the end of the year where draft picks & players not caring.

Atlanta, Seattle & especially the Bills were in hindsight easy picks.

I think the reason not many took Atlanta was that how many times have we seen Atlanta sh*t the bad as a home fav? Many times, & add -14 point favs, that's a lot of points.

Patriots are -16.5 at home in week 16 & I think its one of the best bets on the board, I think they destroy the Jets.

Yes, this year is a statistical outlier. Betting on heavy favorites, and fading the dregs of the league has been pretty favorable this year.... Week 15 again (Buffalo, NE, OAK, ATL, Pitt, SEA -- all covered) only Jax really covered for the house -- and that was because Brock gift-wrapped them 10 points (the Texans D barely gave up any yards).

I am conlicted on the Patriots, if only because they have not been running up the scores (trying to stay healthy) and have been more conservative. But the Jets are in a straight up implosion and the Pat's D is sailing -- so that may be enough. I could easily see them holding the Jets to less than 7.5 points, in which case, even a mediocre offensive day would be enough.