sd, don't you think this would be a good spot to take the Eagles ? Everyone is down on them and rightly so because of their recent poor play but they still have a solid D with offensive weapons capable of putting points on the board. The Eagles is still mathematically alive for the playoff while the Cards has the division wrapped up pretty much.
Zona has not traditionally been good on the road and Warner fumbles too much. The Eagles has 39 sacks this season to go with 9 INTs, Asante Samuel is questionable but I think Lito Sheppard and Brian Dawkins will step it up and it will not be easy for the Cards to pull something out. I do like the OVER though.
Your thoughts ?
Zona has not traditionally been good on the road and Warner fumbles too much. The Eagles has 39 sacks this season to go with 9 INTs, Asante Samuel is questionable but I think Lito Sheppard and Brian Dawkins will step it up and it will not be easy for the Cards to pull something out. I do like the OVER though.
Your thoughts ?
Hey Canabiz ~
Great thoughts. And all of your points are certainly vaild. I see some pretty good cappers on PHI today, so who knows, I could be wrong here. But here's what I see:
PHI has lost to BAL (7~36) and tied CIN (13~13) in the L2 games. There's clearly something wrong with that offense right now. This is evidenced both by the total of 20 points over the L9 quarters of football as well as by Andy Reid yanking McNabb midway through the last game. PHI is a team that has watched it's passing offense drop from 255 passing ypg over the season to 212 passing ypg over the L3 games. One would think that their passing ypg would have increased over the L3 games with the week-to-week questionable status of Westbrook and directly linked drop off in the running game (dropped from 95 ypg over the season to 87 ypg over the L3). So what is going on with this offense? What would make Reid embarrass his starting QB by benching him?
Yes, I do indeed fear that a home game in front of a rowdy PHI crowd following all of this media hype around McNabb's recent poor play could possibly spark a heightened performance from McNabb and his fellow Eagles. And that, in part, explains my loving the Over play in this contest. I expect the PHI offense to be better than they have been over the L2 or L3 games, but this offense is a mess right now.
My reasoning for playing the ARI side ATS, in addition to my thoughts above regarding the PHI offense, have to do with ARI's recent play. Warner has been a beast. The ARI passing offense has seen its average passing ypg increase from 310 ypg on the season to 353 ypg over the L3 games. More importantly for today's matchup, the ARI passing defense has also stepped up, seeing its passing ypg decrease from 212 ypg over the season to 201 ypg over the L3 (and they continue that trend on the road, allowing 203 ypg passing on the road for the season so far). The run defense has been just as solid ~ giving up 90 ypg over the season, 92 ypg on the road and 83 ypg over the L3.
I agree that ARI has not been a great road team this season (they are 3~3 on the road), especially traveling to the east coast (their 3 road losses to WA, NYJ and CAR). But it is for this reason that I think they will give it their all today. With a record of 7~4 they may have their own division wrapped up, but they are near the bottom of the barrell in terms of record when compared to the other potential playoff bound teams in the NFC. Believe me, the last thing ARI wants to do is to be on the road in the playoffs if they can help it. It's impossible to predict the eventual playoff seedings, and who advances and etc., but ARI will want to increase their record in hopes that doing so could prevent one extra game from being on the road in the playoffs should the right scenario present itself. They need to keep up with the rest of the playoff bound teams from the NFC and they will also want to prove to themselves that they can win on the east coast. And tonight looks like a perfect time to do it against a PHI team that will have to show me something before I ever consider taking them ATS again.
I am waivering back and forth on the DAL side today and think I will leave that one alone. I like the recent history of favorites rolling on Thanksgiving (i.e., TEN and DAL....but not PHI obviously).
So I will stick to the plays posted above for today unless I find a prop or something for tonight's game that I like. Gotta run off to our Thanksgiving gathering now. I will be back for the late game.
BOL to all and HAPPY TURKEY DAY !!!
So I will stick to the plays posted above for today unless I find a prop or something for tonight's game that I like. Gotta run off to our Thanksgiving gathering now. I will be back for the late game.
BOL to all and HAPPY TURKEY DAY !!!
Kind of off-topic, but had a gambling question for you that I think I already know the answer to, but thought I would ask in case I was missing something.
I have a couple parlays in play and was wondering if there was any opportunity to hedge that I was missing.
#1 4 teamer (ole miss-13.5 won, Temple-2.5 won, Oklahoma-7.5 pending and Oregon St. -3.5 pending) $50 to win $500.
#2 3 teamer (ole miss 13.5 won, missouri-13.5 pending and oregon st. -3.5 pending) $50 to win $300.
I'm assuming have to let it ride because there are 2 pending on both, but just wanted to be sure.
I have a couple parlays in play and was wondering if there was any opportunity to hedge that I was missing.
#1 4 teamer (ole miss-13.5 won, Temple-2.5 won, Oklahoma-7.5 pending and Oregon St. -3.5 pending) $50 to win $500.
#2 3 teamer (ole miss 13.5 won, missouri-13.5 pending and oregon st. -3.5 pending) $50 to win $300.
I'm assuming have to let it ride because there are 2 pending on both, but just wanted to be sure.
Yes, let it ride until you are down to just 1 play pending. I rarely play parlays but when I do I always try to enter any parlay with the frame of mind that I will be hedging in some way. There’s nothing worse than seeing the last leg fall off on the last game on Sunday or on MNF. I’ve always thought that making a side bet for about half the size of what I could possibly win on the parlay was smart. This way you are assured with a decent sized profit in the event you find yourself staring at the last leg of a sizeable parlay win.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o><o
></o>I always preferred keeping the number of teams in a parlay down to about 3 teams, maybe 4. Let’s say I really like 5 or 6 plays on a given week. I always felt it was better to take the best 3 plays and play a 3-team parlay for twice as much as one might casually play a 5-team parlay.<o
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></o>The other advantage of smaller parlays is another great hedge strategy, which is to wager on the most solid game inside your 3-team parlay. While this may not work every single week, one would assume that the designated best play inside of the parlay would hit at least 2 out of 3 weeks, and if wagered upon for twice the amount wagered on the parlay, would assure you a winning day on the days it hits, the freedom to be playing with house money going forward and hopefully the ability to stay within an extremely comfortable betting level.
Nice looking parlays AJ. BOL with all of them my friend!
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