NFL (Week 13, Th, Sun)

[United]

Overall: 59-60 -16.25

I'm disappointed and disgusted with the record after last year's success. I also feel like there are enough games to make a run. I have (50 units) budgeted for the NFL and down -16.25. I will be doing some gambling this week.

Thursday:

Green Bay -3 -110 (2)

GB at 7-4 and Detroit at 4-7. GB has struggled lately losing 4 out of the last 5 including a loss at home to Detroit and a loss last Thursday on turkey day. Detroit has played well since their bye week going 3-0 with a convincing romp over the Eagles on turkey day. But yet the Pack are still a fg favorite in this game. What I do remember most about the first meeting between these two teams is the Packers slow start, along with some key calls that made big swings in the game. Detroit gave them opportunities to win the game at the end. A failed two point conversion sealed the game at the end to prevent OT. I really feel like the realization of this game has reached the Pack. They know Minny is for real. I have to go with the numbers and they all point towards the Pack for me. GB scoring 23.8 & giving up 19.6 ppg. Detroit scoring 20.9 & giving up 26.2 ppg. Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay. Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay. Call me stubborn or public but I'm taking who I really feel is the better team that needs the win to keep up with Minny. Detroit can play for their pride.

 

[United]

The rest of my action and thoughts on all of the games/


Chicago -7 -110 (2)
Chicago under 43 -110 (2)

The Bears are getting healthy again. Jeremy Langford rushed for 48 yards, and Forte made his return and added 44 yards. Jeffery and Wilson added 90 and 44 receiving yards respectively. Cutler has appeared to be making smarter decisions and has cut down on his TO'S. I was impressed with the W over GB last week. The Bears have won 3 out of their last 4 games with the only loss a 17-15 loss to Denver. That one hurt as they could have pulled to 500. Now they have another chance to get even. What better chance than a reeling and hurting football program in Frisco. They battled with all they had last week with Zona and were crushed by some % ref calls. At 3-8 and going nowhere it's only pride they are playing for now. Heading into a hot Chicago team and the windy city should not bold well for a already struggling offensive team. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games. I don't expect much out of the Frisco offense that is only scoring at 13.8 ppg. I don't even know who their backup is if Gabbert goes down. I do know I'm done betting on crappy teams on the road in the NFL. If I lose I lose.

Buffalo under 41 1/2 -110

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Buffalo. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 14 games at home. Houston has won 4 straight and mostly because of the resurgence of their D. They have only given up 6, 17, 6, and 6 in their last 4 games. This time of year there is always a chance of bad weather brewing up and the more wind the better. Buff needs to get it together and it starts with palying some D. Under it is for me in this one.

Minny under 41 1/2 -110

Minny is 1-8 on the O/U in their 9 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home. They control the ball now that they have Peterson to hand the ball off to. Their D si pretty darn good to, only giving up 17.6 ppg. Seattle has a very good rushing D and I'm hoping this is one of those games that get over with quickly with the clock running a lot. Wilson had a big game last week at home on PT thanks to some big plays. I hope that doesn't happen again. Big Ben forced Seattle to have to score. Bridgewater will play to his strengths, hand it off to Peterson, short passes that are like a running play.

San Diego under 43 1/2 (2)

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games at home. Denver D as we all know is very tough. San Diego struggles even though they got a nice W last week it was because their D picked it up. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver. Osweiler will hopefully have a conservative game plan like he did at Chicago on the road. I could be way off base and Denver might really try and turn him loose. I just think Denver might operate with a bit of a hangover after the win over the Pats. I', expecting a lackluster performance from both teams.

Cincy/Cleve to many points, now way I could play Cleve and qb situation, lot of points for a road fav to cover, in a division game

Jackson/Tenn no interest at all for me

Balt/Miami one would think under the way the Miami offense is playing, then Schaub kn own for his to's, staying away from this one, who has Miami fired lately

Carolina at Saints, new def coordinator for the Saints, did he bring in his own players,
if I played this divisional game it would be Panthers or nothing. I'm not giving this many on the road.

Zona at Rams lean Zona, Rams play them tough, Fischer pissed all week, will it fire team up or are they shot, who's playing qb this week for Rams, is he rusty, will rams hold zona to all fg's again, a lot of ifs in this game

Atlanta at TB One would think TB over a struggling Atlanta team, I don't like it so staying away from it

NYG/NYJ I want +3, will wait and see, may just take NYG on ML, just think Manning has to many weapons, NO PLAY AS OF NOW

KC at Oak Lean Oak at home, but KC is on a roll and Oak on a slide

Indy/Pitt lean Pitt, tough spot for Indy, I think Ben will play, Hass is undefeated and a lot smarter than Luck, Pitt D looked vulnerable at Seattle, that was at Seattle and now home. I'm hoping for a -3,-4, to take Pitt, Indianapolis is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh, Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh,

Dallas at Wash Long way away yet for this one, depends on if I've made a run or not to paly this one, lean under, most likely a tease game for action

good luck everyone, all info, comments, opinions , always welcome in my thread,

 

[indiana]

United.........with you on G.bay..........BOL with all your action this week end............indy

 

[justanobserver]

I'm just curious as a capper I respect, what makes you think the Packers will turn it around and the Lions will not continue their resurgence?

I watched the entire GB game at home last week against the Bears and they have a ton of problems on both sides of the ball. Conversely this is a Lions team that is really talented that was playing really poor to begin the season and finally got their shit together. GB has been exposed as a team thats WR's cannot get separation and are easy to man up, early in the season i think they were going on their mystique and out scheming people (which they are really good at) now they are just getting out manned because of the injuries they have.

 

[United]

I'm just curious as a capper I respect, what makes you think the Packers will turn it around and the Lions will not continue their resurgence?

I watched the entire GB game at home last week against the Bears and they have a ton of problems on both sides of the ball. Conversely this is a Lions team that is really talented that was playing really poor to begin the season and finally got their shit together. GB has been exposed as a team thats WR's cannot get separation and are easy to man up, early in the season i think they were going on their mystique and out scheming people (which they are really good at) now they are just getting out manned because of the injuries they have.

You know as well I do how streaky teams can be in the NFL. Examples: Colts, KC, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, but yet it's the next week and anything can happen. I think the Pack will win this week. I'll take the past success of the Packers (7-4) over the 4-7 Lions anytime. The Pack beat Minny 30-13 just two weeks ago, and then had the Bears 4 days later and only lost by 4 at the end. Detroit since the Packer win beat Oakland and Philly, which both of those teams are struggling. Yes there are players out all over the NFL. Detroit may take them down again. If you really believe the Detroit Lions are better than the Pack then you have an excellent opportunity to play them with the points or even on the ML.

Anyway, I'm not doing so good so Detroit probably is the play.

good luck justanobserver

 

[justanobserver]

You know as well I do how streaky teams can be in the NFL. Examples: Colts, KC, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, but yet it's the next week and anything can happen. I think the Pack will win this week. I'll take the past success of the Packers (7-4) over the 4-7 Lions anytime. The Pack beat Minny 30-13 just two weeks ago, and then had the Bears 4 days later and only lost by 4 at the end. Detroit since the Packer win beat Oakland and Philly, which both of those teams are struggling. Yes there are players out all over the NFL. Detroit may take them down again. If you really believe the Detroit Lions are better than the Pack then you have an excellent opportunity to play them with the points or even on the ML.

Anyway, I'm not doing so good so Detroit probably is the play.

good luck justanobserver

I am by no means knocking your pick, I just wanted to hear some more reasoning, just a little discourse is all

 

[United]

I am by no means knocking your pick, I just wanted to hear some more reasoning, just a little discourse is all

I just don't want to change your mind about a game and then it loses. If you haven't made up your mind yet, then that's different. Obviously, I like the Pack. Injuries usually are already adjusted when the lines come out. If not they will with hold a line. Ex Pitt and Indy

 

[SaintsFan1977]

What are your thoughts on the Panthers/Saints game? I am leaning Saints +7 and not because of the homer in me, but because this is a division game and after the Texans just put a slobber knocking on the Saints this game will be extremely lopsided with Panthers bets. I know the Saints suck but Carolina won its last 4 ATS and Saints lost last 3 ATS.

From Twitter: Brees: we know the type of game it's gonna be. always a 4 quarter game vs Carolina.

Does he know something we dont?

Good luck this week

 

[dg84]

Although the Lions have been playing much better, they're still one dimensional offensively which should help the Packers D. I think this is a situation where Rodgers realizes the importance of the game & takes over. Doesn't hurt that the Lions haven't swept the Pack in a quarter century.

 

[United]

What are your thoughts on the Panthers/Saints game? I am leaning Saints +7 and not because of the homer in me, but because this is a division game and after the Texans just put a slobber knocking on the Saints this game will be extremely lopsided with Panthers bets. I know the Saints suck but Carolina won its last 4 ATS and Saints lost last 3 ATS.

From Twitter: Brees: we know the type of game it's gonna be. always a 4 quarter game vs Carolina.

Does he know something we dont?

Good luck this week

I just don't think that the Saints D will be able to stop Carolina. IMO Saints only chance would be for Brees to keep scoring. Stranger things have happened in the NFL. Carolina would have to turn the ball over and the Saints capitalize on them. I have lost on Carolina enough waiting for them to lose a game. If you think the Saints stand a shot at it, a small ML bet would be worth a nice payoff. I'm not saying the Saints + the points isn't a good bet, I've just lost to many betting against the Panthers.

good luck my friend

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

like Saints and points. OAK SU.

 

[United]

Green Bay -3 -110 (2)
Chicago -7 -110 (2)
Chicago under 43 -110 (2)
Buffalo under 41 1/2 -110 (2)
Minny under 41 1/2 -110 (2)
San Diego under 43 1/2 (2)

add:

Green Bay ML -130 (2)
Oakland ML +125 (1)
NYG ML +120 (1)

 

[adub034]

lets get this GB home tonight bro! BOL!

 

[HotRocks]

GL United, time for a run!!!

 

[comrade666]

On gb as well.
Good luck tonight and the rest of the year friend

 

[memphis]

Gluck Tonight United w-thumbs!^


Memphy

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

United,

Saw that it was the first time u ever had effectively 4 units on one team in GB last night bw ur spread and ML pick on GB, both for 2 units...maybe this will mark the turnaround for your season as well as the packers' season ! congrats.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Games like the Packers miracle last night are exactly what a team like Gbay needs to wake up & go on a crazy run to win it all.......like the Ravens crazy catch in the playoffs in Denver to give them the miracle win & then they went on to win it all......

Congrats on the win United!

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

Justin Houston ruled out @ OAK Sunday

 

[United]

United,

Saw that it was the first time u ever had effectively 4 units on one team in GB last night bw ur spread and ML pick on GB, both for 2 units...maybe this will mark the turnaround for your season as well as the packers' season ! congrats.

Thanks for the encouragement. I was very lucky to hit those plays. Thank God I wasn't on Detroit. What a awful way to lose a bet. We've all been there. This time I was on the lucky side of one.

I will be adding more games.

good luck