Just posting for documentation.
Finally broke out last week, going 5-1 and winning my strongest play of the year on the Minnesota/San Diego over, which was almost over by halftime. Last year, starting with week 12, I finished the season with nine winning weeks out of ten weeks, winning 66% of my bets, going 41-21 during that time. Hopefully last week was the beginning of another great run.
All side opinions went 6-6-2 last week and are now 75-62-5 55% over the first ten weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
BUFFALO -7 Houston 37.5
Bills continued their season long drought on offense last week, gaining just 185 yards at 3.0 yppl. They did rush for 100 yards at 4.0 ypr so maybe their running game is starting to get going, although they are still only gaining 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr over their last five games. As bad as the offense has been, their defense continues to thrive, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and is above average against both, the run and the pass. Their offense may get a little healthier this week against a porous Houston defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 8.8 yps against 7.3 yps for, a total of 6.5 yppl against 5.6 yppl over the last five games. The Houston offense has been good this year, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl over their last five games and above average with both, the run and the pass. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 765-596-31. My numbers favor Buffalo anywhere from 3.5 points to 10 points. I'll side with the better defense and an offense, which should get going against a below average defense. BUFFALO 26 HOUSTON 16
PHILADELPHIA -3.5 NY Giants 38
Tough game to call here as I have situations going both ways. Giants reverted back to their old ways again last week, out gaining Atlanta, 320 yards to 274 and 4.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl. But, once again, the culprit was the turnover bug, as they lost the turnover battle 0-4. So once again, they moved the ball and played well but lost because of turnovers. They qualify in my turnover system this week, which is 765-596-31 and they also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 291-210-11. Unfortunately, for the Giants, they play Philadelphia this week and their strengths go against Philly's strengths. The Giants have not run the ball well as of late, gaining just 3.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr over their last five games and will go against a Philly defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Giants success on offense has come via the passing game, at 6.0 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games, but they will face a tough Philly secondary that is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. The Philly offense has been best with the running game, averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games and they will face a Giants defense, which is allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The strength of the Giants defense has been their pass defense, allowing just 4.6 yps against 6.3 yps, but it's doubtful that Philly will throw much with their 4.9 yps against 5.7 yps offense. Philly qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY) and a subset, which is 136-58-6 (7-4-1 TY) and another situation, which is 134-54-7 (6-4 TY). So, it appears the fundamentals and the technicals go against each other in this game. Final numbers slightly favor the Giants and I will too, even without Shockey in the lineup. NY GIANTS 21 PHILADELPHIA 20
CLEVELAND -6.5 Arizona 37.5
Always a little difficult to take an Arizona team on the road that has lost all four road games by 18, 24, 17 and 13 points but that's what I'm going to do this week. I went against Cleveland back in week seven when a good running team like SD came to town and I will do it again this week with a decent running team like Arizona. Arizona is averaging 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games and that should sit just fine against a Cleveland defense, which is allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. Cleveland does nothing well on offense, gaining just 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 4.6 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games. Meanwhile, what was a weakness to the Arizona defense, pass defense, hasn't been a weakness over their last five games, allowing just 6.0 yps against 6.1 yps and the rush defense has been solid all year long, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 yps the last five games. Arizona qualifies in a general situation, which is 42-15-1. Cleveland allowed KC 41 points last week and that doesn't bode well for them laying points this week and they qualify in a negative momentum situation based on that, which is 68-27-4 and plays against Cleveland in this game. Arizona also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 291-210-10 and is the same situation SD qualified in here a few weeks back. Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 765-596-31 since 1983. They also qualify in two fundamental rushing situations, which are 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY) and 234-163-14. Combine that with the fact Cleveland has won only one game this year by more than seven points, and the underdog has a nice ring to it. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 76-42-1 (3-1 TY) and my final points predicts just 30 and 31 points. I never like going under in Cleveland games because I never seem to know when they will come out passing lights out and take the game over the total. But the under looks pretty solid here. CLEVELAND 17 ARIZONA 14
Kansas City -6 CINCINNATI 47
I can't sit here and try to convince you Cincinnati is the better team here, but like I have said earlier in the year, the better team doesn't always win and cover, or we would have plenty more teams go undefeated and winless each year (only one team has gone undefeated and only one team has failed to win a game since the merger). So, that must mean teams go through peaks and valleys during an NFL season. Well, I'm hoping this is one of those valleys for KC. The match up here isn't great for Cincinnati. They don't defend the pass very well, allowing 6.4 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games and they will take on a KC team who is averaging 7.2 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati has been about average defending the run, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr, but KC has just been average running the ball the last five games, averaging just 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The KC defense is allowing just 17 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game over their last five games, but they are allowing 5.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl over that same time span. That means they are getting the turnovers and allowing the yards, but not the points because of the turnovers. Cincinnati does fit my turnover table system this week but they don't qualify in the better part of that system. The KC defense is allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.2 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati hasn't rushed the ball well, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr over their last five games but they ran the ball well last week against Houston, using Rudi Johnson to gain 240 yards at 4.2 ypr. That was against a similar poor Houston rushing defense. So, I suspect they will be able to run the ball some. KC will probably look for that as well. And, while they are looking for that, Cincinnati will do what they do best, and that is throw the ball. They are averaging 6.2 yps against 5.7 yps over their last five games and should find some weaknesses in the KC secondary or be able to do some possible back door damage if they have to, late in the game. It's been a while since we've seen KC on the road but they haven't been dominating on the road this year. They beat Houston in their first road game, winning 42-14, but have won their last three road games by seven over Baltimore (in a game they were dominated in but got a key kick off return for a touchdown), six over Green Bay (in a game they were down by 17 in the fourth quarter but got a key interception return for a touchdown) and beat Oakland by seven points in a game they stopped Oakland on the one inch line as time ran out. Throw out Cincinnati's first game (a 20 point loss to Denver), which can be explained as Marvin Lewis's first game and a getting to know his team atmosphere, and they haven't lost by more than seven points this year, including two home wins over Baltimore and Seattle. Cincinnati qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 154-105-10 (2-0 TY). Kansas City has been on fire but that doesn't necessarily bode well for them on the road and they qualify in a letdown situation, which is 49-21-2 and plays against them here. My final numbers suggest a 5.5 point win (all games) to a one point win (last five games) for Kansas City suggesting a little value with Cincinnati as well. Those numbers also suggest a higher scoring game but this game qualifies in a terrific under situation, which is 297-221-11 (11-5 TY) and I can't go against that situation, which is hot again this year. KANSAS CITY 24 CINCINNATI 22
St. Louis -6 CHICAGO 41.5
Time to get back on the 'going against the Rams' train. St. Louis is really two different teams when playing at home or on the road. They are 6-3 this year but just 1-3 on the road and laying points against a good Bears defense, when their own defense just isn't that good, doesn't usually lead to profits. The Rams, over their last five games, are averaging just 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr and on the road this year, they are averaging just 2.6 ypr overall. They haven't gained 100 yards rushing on the road yet. And, while most people don't want to believe it, the Bears are actually playing good defense, allowing just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games and just 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps over that same time period. Chicago isn't doing much on offense, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games but they may find some success against a Rams defense, which is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. But the Rams, on the road this year, are allowing an average of 126 yards per game rushing at 4.9 ypr and have allowed each of their four opponents to average at least 4.4 ypr or better. Meanwhile, the Bears have averaged 144 yards rushing per game in their four home games at 4.6 ypr. It appears they will be able to have some success on the ground against the Rams defense and it's doubtful the Rams offense will operate at full efficiency in the cold climate, which also could produce some problems in the passing game with the wind. The Rams qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which plays against them here and is 156-87-8 since 1983. The Rams also qualify in a letdown situation, which is a play against situation with a record of 71-38-3 and played against Seattle last week and Oakland earlier in the season here in Chicago. The Bears also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 765-596-31, including a subset of that, which is 137-78-4. And the Bears qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 73-32-3 and played on San Diego last week. I mentioned last week that playing on teams who have had success covering the spread against teams who haven't had success covering the spread can be fatal to your bankroll. A situation, based on that premise, won with Jacksonville and San Diego last week and applies to the Bears here. That situation is now 271-177-19 (6-2 TY). Final numbers only favor the Rams by five (all games) to just 2.5 points (last five games). Since their home loss to GB on a Monday night game, Chicago has failed to lose any game by more than seven points. Solid value with Chicago and the weather to help us out as well. CHICAGO 23 ST LOUIS 20
CAROLINA -6 Washington 36.5
I don't have any situations that favor either team here but the lean has to be to Carolina in this game. Carolina has a great match up here and the value seems to lie with them as well. The Carolina defense is starting to play better and they are now allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.7 yppl over their last five games, including being above average against both, the run and the pass. Their offense still isn't great but their passing game has really come alive, and is now averaging 6.6 yps against 6.4 yps and is now above average. The running game, which we know is strong, is averaging just 4.5 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games but they still produce yards out of it and with a stronger passing game, that's just fine. The match up is very favorable for them this week against a Washington defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games and 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps over that same time period. Washington isn't doing anything well on offense either, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 4.7 yps against 5.1 yps. My numbers indicate about a 8.5 point win (all games) to a 10 point win (last five games), giving us some value with Carolina in this favorable match up. This game could be a little higher scoring than we might think with the improved Carolina passing game. CAROLINA 27 WASHINGTON 16
TENNESSEE -10 Jacksonville 44.5
I've been talking for weeks now about Jacksonville continuing to out gain their opponents in yards and yards per play but losing the games because of turnovers. Interestingly enough, they finally won last week, keeping the turnover battle even, but actually losing the yardage battle and the yards per play battle. I still like what they are doing and this team could be a good cover team over the last half of this season. Leftwich will only get better. Their passing game is coming alive, averaging 6.5 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. While only averaging 3.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr, they are still getting yards out of the running game, averaging 108 yards per game this season. And lost in all of this is a good defense, which is allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.6 yps. No question, they'll face a red hot Tennessee team who is hitting on all cylinders right now. Tennessee is averaging 9.1 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. They still aren't running the ball well, averaging 3.2 ypr against 3.7 ypr but their passing game is making up for that. On defense, they are still well below average, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.4 yps. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball on them some. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY), including the best subset of that, which is 136-58-6 (7-4-1 TY). Jacksonville has played against Houston/Tennessee eight years now on the road and has lost only two of those games by more than 10 points. Final numbers show Tennessee winning this game by 14 (all games) and 12.5 points (last five games) but they don't account for the positive situation Jacksonville is in and I will never lay that many points with a defense like Tennessee's. This game also figures to be higher scoring but I have two solid under situations that apply here, which are 223-121-6 (7-3 TY) and 297-221-11 (11-5 TY). Both of those situations are having great years. Unfortunately I can't go under when my final score predictions are around 51 and 52 points but I can't play the over either with the strong situation suggesting a lower scoring game. TENNESSEE 24 JACKSONVILLE 17
MIAMI -6 Baltimore 33
How Baltimore could possibly lose last week's game is beyond me. Well, actually we know how, because they turned the ball over seven times to only four times for the Rams. But, Baltimore out gained the Rams 267-121 and 3.4 yppl to 2.4 yppl. They out rushed the Rams 145 to 47 and 3.8 ypr to 2.2 ypr and actually out passed the high flying Rams machine, 122 yards to just 74 yards and 3.1 yps to 2.5 yps. And, not only did they lose, but they lost by 11 points, even with that domination. It wasn't very pretty for Miami either, losing at Tennessee, 7-31, getting out rushed 101-59 and out passed 223-165, getting sacked four times and turning the ball over five times to none for Tennessee. Miami is really in a funk and I don't see them getting out of it this week against a good Baltimore defense. Miami is averaging just 4.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games and below average with both, the run and the pass. They are still playing great defense, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. But Baltimore is also playing great defense, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl and equally above average against both, the run and the pass. The difference is Baltimore has an identity on offense and that is their running game. They are averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. It will be tough for the Ravens to run against a Miami rush defense, allowing just 2.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, but at least Baltimore has an identity, while Miami is still searching for one. Yes, I realize Boller is out of this game but Baltimore is only going to look to run the ball anyway, and with Anthony Wright, at least they can scramble under pressure. I don't see Miami moving the ball much either. With Miami giving up 30+ points last week, they qualify in a negative momentum situation, which plays against them here, that is 169-99-10, including the best subset, which is a 56-18-2 play against here. The Ravens also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 234-163-14. Final numbers only suggest a three point win (all games) and a 4.5 point win (last five games) for Miami. They don't take into account the loss of Kyle Boller but they also don't account for the positive situations Baltimore is in. The Ravens haven't performed well on the road this year, but Miami has now played three teams above .500 and lost to all three of those teams, including two of those games at home. MIAMI 17 BALTIMORE 16
NEW ORLEANS -8.5 Atlanta 44
If you're into team trends, you will note NO has only covered but one of the last 14 games played between these two here in NO the last 14 years. I don't have any situations that favor either team here so we're left with just the match ups to try and figure out who will cover this game. When you have a defense like Atlanta's, it's hard to ever get a favorable match up. Atlanta is now allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.6 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. NO is rushing the ball well, gaining 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games but they aren't throwing the ball well, gaining just 6.2 yps against 6.7 yps. They did manage to throw for over 10 yards per pass against Atlanta earlier this year so perhaps their passing game will right itself again this week. The one thing Atlanta has done well, as of late, is rush the ball, averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.7 ypr. They've been well below average passing the ball, gaining just 5.1 yps against 5.8 yps. They could find some success against a NO defense that is allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. The Saints have played good pass defense, allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Atlanta ran for 130 yards on only 22 carries in their first meeting, averaging 5.9 ypr but that didn't help them in their 17-45 loss to the Saints. My numbers favor NO by seven points (all games) and by 14 points (last five games). Atlanta won their game last week in easy fashion but I think it was more because of a +4 in the turnover department than what they did from a yardage standpoint. They were out gained 320-274 and 4.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl. The Giants rushed for 6.5 ypr and 124 yards. So, it doesn't appear they have corrected their problems, they just won the turnover battle and that allowed them to succeed even though they were getting out played on each play. On the road this year, Atlanta has allowed an average of 146 yards rushing per game at 5.2 ypr. NO has gained at least 103 yards rushing in every game this year except their game at Tennessee, where they were taken out of the game early. They gained 166 yards on 36 carries in their earlier meeting with Atlanta. I originally thought this game might be high scoring because my numbers suggest about 45 to 48 points being scored but I do have a 223-120-6 under situation that applies to this game and that situation is 7-3 to the under this year. I'll take the better team and lean towards the under. NEW ORLEANS 27 ATLANTA 14
INDIANAPOLIS -6 NY Jets 43
This game should be a shootout whether Marvin Harrison plays or not. I still think the Colts offense is good enough and has enough weapons despite the loss of Harrison. And I don't believe the Colts defense is good enough to shut down the Jets offense, especially in a controlled environment, where they can run everything in their offense. Indy continues to throw the ball very well, averaging 8.0 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. They aren't running the ball well, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr but that could get a little healthier against the Jets. The Jets are allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and have allowed at least 115 yards rushing in every game but one this year and an average of 155 yards per game, which soars to 168 yards per game on the road. If they continue to do that, they will continue to allow a bunch of points as well. They have faced only one good offense on the road this year and that was New England, where they allowed 23 points. The Jets should be able to move the ball in this game against the Colts defense, which is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. The Jets strength on offense has been their passing game, which is averaging 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. They have also started to rush the ball well, averaging 4.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr in their last five games, but have gained at least 118 yards rushing in each of those games and averaged at least 5.0 ypr in three of their last four games. Indy has allowed at least 21 points in five of their last six games and their offense has scored at least 20 points in every game since their first game and at least 23 in every game but two games. This means we can probably pencil in the Colts to get at least 23 points in this game. Will they give up 20 points? Well, knowing they have allowed at least 21 points in five of their last six games and at least 131 yards rushing in seven or their last eight games, I think we can assume the Jets offense, will get their share of points as well. The Jets have averaged 22 points in their last five games. The Jets also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 107-38-5 (3-1 TY) and my final numbers only show Indy winning this game by 4.5 points (all games) and by two points (last five games). Herm Edwards is now 6-3 as an away dog of more than three points and the Jets have historically been a good road dog team, going 16-4-1 since 1997 as a road dog of more than four points. On the other side, Tony Dungy teams have never performed well as a big favorite, going 13-27-0 as a favorite of four or more points, including 4-7-0 with Indy (1-3-0 TY). And, historically, Indy hasn't been a good favorite team, going 14-30-1 as a home favorite of four or more points, including just 3-6 with Tony Dungy (1-2 TY). The Jets haven't lost here at Indy by more than eight points in the last ten years. I realize a seven or eight point loss would not get the cover but the point is they have been competitive and they are in a great situation this week. We have line value, a 73%+ situation on 145 samples, past team history success in this role, a coaches past history of success in this role against a team with a poor history in their current role and their head coach with a poor history in this role. Only one side in this game and the over looks even better than the side. Yes, I realize the Colts are playing with revenge. You can throw that out in the NFL. Jets are the more desperate team here. INDIANAPOLIS 31 NY JETS 30
DENVER -8.5 San Diego 44
This is a pretty tough game for me to get a read on. Denver's numbers, as of late, aren't that good, but they have been playing without Plummer, which has greatly hurt their passing numbers and their rushing numbers to some extent. The defense has also suffered injuries and that has hurt them as well. For SD, they go with Doug Flutie for a second straight game. It's too bad they don't have a better match up this week because I would like to see Flutie succeed against some worse teams and set up a great play against SD down the road. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen. SD does qualify in the same situation the Jets qualify in, which is a remarkable 107-38-5 and 3-1 this year. And SD has rushed the ball well as of late, gaining 5.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr but they haven't thrown the ball well, gaining just 5.2 yps against 6.0 yps but maybe that will change some with Flutie. The one constant in all of this is the Chargers pass defense, which hasn't been good, allowing 6.6 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. Denver hasn't thrown the ball well as of late, gaining just 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps but that was without Plummer. The Broncos continue to run the ball well, gaining 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and SD has played much better rush defense, as of late, allowing just 3.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr. I'll lean with SD because of the great situation they are in. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 48-21-4. My final points show about 44 to 45 points being scored, which is too close to the number to play the under. DENVER 23 SAN DIEGO 20
TAMPA BAY -4 Green Bay 40.5
Last week many people saw their bankroll take a hit because they played TB, knowing the Bucs are now 20-2 ats when coming off a loss as a favorite. I'm sure people will point to that trend again this week and also point out TB needs this win badly, along with the fact GB has lost five straight games in TB. But, look a little deeper and realize three of those five losses were by five points or less, so it's not like they haven't been competitive in those games. Last year was another example of playing TB tough but losing the game in the end because of turnovers. In that game, they gained 264 yards at 4.2 yppl to TB's 246 yards at 4.2 yppl. The difference was four costly interceptions by Favre. He's certainly capable of doing that again this week but the Packers offense is much different this time around. They are running the ball with authority and that is taking the pressure off of Favre and putting him in position to succeed. GB is now averaging 5.8 ypr against 4.7 ypr in their last five games and throwing the ball for 6.5 yps against 5.8 yps. The defense isn't playing great, allowing teams to rush for 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr but only throw for 6.2 yps against 6.8 yps. There really isn't anything special about the TB defense right now. They are allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl and the most telling sign was last week when they needed to stop Carolina on their last drive but instead allowed Carolina to drive 78 yards on only six plays in only 1:35. That's not a good sign for a defense that is supposed to be extra special. TB still can't run the ball, averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr but they continue to throw the ball well, gaining 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps. TB has allowed teams to rush the ball very effectively on them. They allowed Carolina, in their first game, to rush for 171 yards, NO to rush for 124 yards and SF to rush for 212 yards. They held Carolina to just 78 yards last week but that was without Stephen Davis. And two of those three games mentioned were at home. TB has now lost three of four home games this year so I don't think GB will be intimidated in this game. The Pack qualify in a contrary situation, which is 291-210-10 and they are a turnover table play, which is 765-596-31 and indicates they shouldn't have as many turnover problems this year as they had last year. GB also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY) and a subset of that, which is 419-295-23 (21-12-1 TY). Final numbers only show TB winning by 2.5 points (all games) and 1.5 points (last five games). We have line value along with some solid situations in their favor. And, possibly the Warren Sapp problems from last year, that might just light a fire under the GB offensive line. They took offense to some Chris Hovan talk earlier this year, and came out and played with vengeance and they just might do it again this week. GREEN BAY 27 TAMPA BAY 24
SEATTLE -10.5 Detroit 40.5
I don't have much interest in this game but I will side with the better team, which is Seattle. Detroit does nothing on offense, gaining just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but they have played better defense as of late, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.7 yppl in their last five games. They'll face a Seahawk defense that really isn't anything special, allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. Seattle continues to run the ball well, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps. Mike Holmgren said they will open up the offense more this week and start looking for bigger plays out of the passing game. Seattle has gone under in every home game this year and Detroit has gone under in all but one road game this year, totaling just 40 points in the one game they did go over in. The season long numbers favor Seattle by nine points and the last five games numbers favor them by only 5.5 points. Seattle does qualify in a contrary situation, which is 324-245-20 but they don't qualify in the better subsets of that. Still, I side with them here in a light lean. SEATTLE 27 DETROIT 14
Minnesota -4.5 OAKLAND 45.5
Well, I guess they can't make the Vikings an underdog in this game so their only choice is to make them a favorite. I will admit I think the Vikings have a better chance this week because Oakland doesn't really have an identity on offense. The Vikings last four opponents all did something well on offense but Oakland doesn't fit that mode. Still, the situations go against Minnesota again this week. How one can lay points on the road with a team allowing 5.8 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps is beyond me. And, while the Oakland offense isn't anything special, gaining just 4.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.2 yps against 5.6 yps, this type of defense can get them healthy real quick. The Vikings don't bring any type of pass rush, which should allow Rick Mirer to find time for open receivers. And, if you think the Vikings secondary is going to stop Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter, you haven't watched many Vikings games this year. Charlie Garner and Justin Fargas are salivating, waiting to get their shot against this run defense. If teams have been attacking the outside of the Vikings defense because of their slow (and now we find out injured linebackers), I don't see them stopping the speed of Garner and Fargas. Now, Oakland has their own problems on defense. They are allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games and that should sit just fine with the Vikings offense. Their offense is still throwing the ball well, averaging 7.6 yps against 6.4 yps but the running game has become just average, averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Go back to last week's analysis where I pointed out how many points this Vikings defense has allowed since late of 2000 on the road. It's unbelievable and now they are laying points. Until that changes, I have to continue to take my shots against them. Minnesota qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 156-87-8 play against them here and Oakland is a turnover table play for me this week, which is 765-596-31. I said it last week in the SD game and I'll say it this week. Teams who are covering the spread, when playing teams who aren't covering the spread, are poor propositions and will lead you to a depleted bankroll faster than you can pay the pizza delivery man. That situation pops again this week against the Vikings and is now 271-177-19 (6-2 TY). Oakland also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is now 73-32-8. Of course, I had my biggest play of the year last week on the over. This week, the game qualifies in a 33-11-1 over situation, BUT, it also qualifies in a 48-21-4 under situation. Final predicted points are about 48 to 50 points but I can't play the over when the one situation plays to the under. Last week, Tice said he tried to run the ball more in the second half to keep his defense off the field and he might try that again this week. If they fall way behind again, he won't have a choice but if they can keep it close, he might resort to the run game, especially with Randy Moss a little banged up. It won't matter with that defense. OAKLAND 24 MINNESOTA 20
NEW ENGLAND -4 Dallas 35
Only one situation in this game and it leans towards the Cowboys. This should be a very interesting game with the NE offense, which is averaging 7.2 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games going against the Cowboys pass defense, which is allowing just 3.3 yps against 5.1 yps over their last five games. NE is allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr and, while the Cowboys don't rush the ball particularly well (3.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr), I have to believe Parcells will try and run the ball at them to try and open up his speedy receivers. If NE can't throw the ball, I'm not sure how they'll move the ball because they don't run the ball well enough. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 234-163-14 and the final numbers suggest a four point win (all games) and a six point win (last five games) for NE. Parcells is now 31-13-1 as a road dog of four or more points. NEW ENGLAND 17 DALLAS 16
SAN FRANCISCO -4 Pittsburgh 41
SF has played some great football as of late, especially at home. They are now averaging 4.3 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Pittsburgh has defended the run well, allowing just 3.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they are giving up big plays in the passing game, allowing 6.9 yps against 6.1 yps. On offense, Pittsburgh isn't doing anything well, averaging just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps. Pittsburgh finally got the win last week but they didn't do anything well, getting out gained 379 yards to just 246 yards and 5.0 yppl to 4.7 yppl. The turnovers were even but they did register five sacks, which helped greatly and returned a punt for a touchdown. The only weakness in the 49ers defense, as of late, as been their rush defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr but the Steelers offensive line just isn't good enough to exploit that. SF qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 25-7-0 and a Monday night situation, which is 59-26-2. Final numbers favor SF by a lot here and the situations do as well. I'll side with SF. SAN FRANCISCO 30 PITTSBURGH 13
BEST BETS
YTD 29-23-2 +12.20%
3% NYJ/INDY OVER 43
2% ARIZONA +6
2% CINCINNATI +6
2% CHICAGO +6.5
2% BALTIMORE +6
2% NY JETS +6
2% GREEN BAY +4
2% OAKLAND +5
2% SAN FRANICSCO -4
Finally broke out last week, going 5-1 and winning my strongest play of the year on the Minnesota/San Diego over, which was almost over by halftime. Last year, starting with week 12, I finished the season with nine winning weeks out of ten weeks, winning 66% of my bets, going 41-21 during that time. Hopefully last week was the beginning of another great run.
All side opinions went 6-6-2 last week and are now 75-62-5 55% over the first ten weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
BUFFALO -7 Houston 37.5
Bills continued their season long drought on offense last week, gaining just 185 yards at 3.0 yppl. They did rush for 100 yards at 4.0 ypr so maybe their running game is starting to get going, although they are still only gaining 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr over their last five games. As bad as the offense has been, their defense continues to thrive, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and is above average against both, the run and the pass. Their offense may get a little healthier this week against a porous Houston defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 8.8 yps against 7.3 yps for, a total of 6.5 yppl against 5.6 yppl over the last five games. The Houston offense has been good this year, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl over their last five games and above average with both, the run and the pass. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 765-596-31. My numbers favor Buffalo anywhere from 3.5 points to 10 points. I'll side with the better defense and an offense, which should get going against a below average defense. BUFFALO 26 HOUSTON 16
PHILADELPHIA -3.5 NY Giants 38
Tough game to call here as I have situations going both ways. Giants reverted back to their old ways again last week, out gaining Atlanta, 320 yards to 274 and 4.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl. But, once again, the culprit was the turnover bug, as they lost the turnover battle 0-4. So once again, they moved the ball and played well but lost because of turnovers. They qualify in my turnover system this week, which is 765-596-31 and they also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 291-210-11. Unfortunately, for the Giants, they play Philadelphia this week and their strengths go against Philly's strengths. The Giants have not run the ball well as of late, gaining just 3.8 ypr against 4.3 ypr over their last five games and will go against a Philly defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Giants success on offense has come via the passing game, at 6.0 yps against 6.0 yps over their last five games, but they will face a tough Philly secondary that is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. The Philly offense has been best with the running game, averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games and they will face a Giants defense, which is allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The strength of the Giants defense has been their pass defense, allowing just 4.6 yps against 6.3 yps, but it's doubtful that Philly will throw much with their 4.9 yps against 5.7 yps offense. Philly qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY) and a subset, which is 136-58-6 (7-4-1 TY) and another situation, which is 134-54-7 (6-4 TY). So, it appears the fundamentals and the technicals go against each other in this game. Final numbers slightly favor the Giants and I will too, even without Shockey in the lineup. NY GIANTS 21 PHILADELPHIA 20
CLEVELAND -6.5 Arizona 37.5
Always a little difficult to take an Arizona team on the road that has lost all four road games by 18, 24, 17 and 13 points but that's what I'm going to do this week. I went against Cleveland back in week seven when a good running team like SD came to town and I will do it again this week with a decent running team like Arizona. Arizona is averaging 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games and that should sit just fine against a Cleveland defense, which is allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. Cleveland does nothing well on offense, gaining just 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 4.6 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games. Meanwhile, what was a weakness to the Arizona defense, pass defense, hasn't been a weakness over their last five games, allowing just 6.0 yps against 6.1 yps and the rush defense has been solid all year long, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.9 yps the last five games. Arizona qualifies in a general situation, which is 42-15-1. Cleveland allowed KC 41 points last week and that doesn't bode well for them laying points this week and they qualify in a negative momentum situation based on that, which is 68-27-4 and plays against Cleveland in this game. Arizona also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 291-210-10 and is the same situation SD qualified in here a few weeks back. Arizona is also a turnover table play, which is 765-596-31 since 1983. They also qualify in two fundamental rushing situations, which are 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY) and 234-163-14. Combine that with the fact Cleveland has won only one game this year by more than seven points, and the underdog has a nice ring to it. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 76-42-1 (3-1 TY) and my final points predicts just 30 and 31 points. I never like going under in Cleveland games because I never seem to know when they will come out passing lights out and take the game over the total. But the under looks pretty solid here. CLEVELAND 17 ARIZONA 14
Kansas City -6 CINCINNATI 47
I can't sit here and try to convince you Cincinnati is the better team here, but like I have said earlier in the year, the better team doesn't always win and cover, or we would have plenty more teams go undefeated and winless each year (only one team has gone undefeated and only one team has failed to win a game since the merger). So, that must mean teams go through peaks and valleys during an NFL season. Well, I'm hoping this is one of those valleys for KC. The match up here isn't great for Cincinnati. They don't defend the pass very well, allowing 6.4 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games and they will take on a KC team who is averaging 7.2 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati has been about average defending the run, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr, but KC has just been average running the ball the last five games, averaging just 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The KC defense is allowing just 17 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game over their last five games, but they are allowing 5.2 yppl against 4.9 yppl over that same time span. That means they are getting the turnovers and allowing the yards, but not the points because of the turnovers. Cincinnati does fit my turnover table system this week but they don't qualify in the better part of that system. The KC defense is allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.6 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.2 yps over their last five games. Cincinnati hasn't rushed the ball well, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr over their last five games but they ran the ball well last week against Houston, using Rudi Johnson to gain 240 yards at 4.2 ypr. That was against a similar poor Houston rushing defense. So, I suspect they will be able to run the ball some. KC will probably look for that as well. And, while they are looking for that, Cincinnati will do what they do best, and that is throw the ball. They are averaging 6.2 yps against 5.7 yps over their last five games and should find some weaknesses in the KC secondary or be able to do some possible back door damage if they have to, late in the game. It's been a while since we've seen KC on the road but they haven't been dominating on the road this year. They beat Houston in their first road game, winning 42-14, but have won their last three road games by seven over Baltimore (in a game they were dominated in but got a key kick off return for a touchdown), six over Green Bay (in a game they were down by 17 in the fourth quarter but got a key interception return for a touchdown) and beat Oakland by seven points in a game they stopped Oakland on the one inch line as time ran out. Throw out Cincinnati's first game (a 20 point loss to Denver), which can be explained as Marvin Lewis's first game and a getting to know his team atmosphere, and they haven't lost by more than seven points this year, including two home wins over Baltimore and Seattle. Cincinnati qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 154-105-10 (2-0 TY). Kansas City has been on fire but that doesn't necessarily bode well for them on the road and they qualify in a letdown situation, which is 49-21-2 and plays against them here. My final numbers suggest a 5.5 point win (all games) to a one point win (last five games) for Kansas City suggesting a little value with Cincinnati as well. Those numbers also suggest a higher scoring game but this game qualifies in a terrific under situation, which is 297-221-11 (11-5 TY) and I can't go against that situation, which is hot again this year. KANSAS CITY 24 CINCINNATI 22
St. Louis -6 CHICAGO 41.5
Time to get back on the 'going against the Rams' train. St. Louis is really two different teams when playing at home or on the road. They are 6-3 this year but just 1-3 on the road and laying points against a good Bears defense, when their own defense just isn't that good, doesn't usually lead to profits. The Rams, over their last five games, are averaging just 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr and on the road this year, they are averaging just 2.6 ypr overall. They haven't gained 100 yards rushing on the road yet. And, while most people don't want to believe it, the Bears are actually playing good defense, allowing just 3.8 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games and just 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps over that same time period. Chicago isn't doing much on offense, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl over their last five games but they may find some success against a Rams defense, which is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. But the Rams, on the road this year, are allowing an average of 126 yards per game rushing at 4.9 ypr and have allowed each of their four opponents to average at least 4.4 ypr or better. Meanwhile, the Bears have averaged 144 yards rushing per game in their four home games at 4.6 ypr. It appears they will be able to have some success on the ground against the Rams defense and it's doubtful the Rams offense will operate at full efficiency in the cold climate, which also could produce some problems in the passing game with the wind. The Rams qualify in a negative scheduling situation, which plays against them here and is 156-87-8 since 1983. The Rams also qualify in a letdown situation, which is a play against situation with a record of 71-38-3 and played against Seattle last week and Oakland earlier in the season here in Chicago. The Bears also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 765-596-31, including a subset of that, which is 137-78-4. And the Bears qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 73-32-3 and played on San Diego last week. I mentioned last week that playing on teams who have had success covering the spread against teams who haven't had success covering the spread can be fatal to your bankroll. A situation, based on that premise, won with Jacksonville and San Diego last week and applies to the Bears here. That situation is now 271-177-19 (6-2 TY). Final numbers only favor the Rams by five (all games) to just 2.5 points (last five games). Since their home loss to GB on a Monday night game, Chicago has failed to lose any game by more than seven points. Solid value with Chicago and the weather to help us out as well. CHICAGO 23 ST LOUIS 20
CAROLINA -6 Washington 36.5
I don't have any situations that favor either team here but the lean has to be to Carolina in this game. Carolina has a great match up here and the value seems to lie with them as well. The Carolina defense is starting to play better and they are now allowing just 5.3 yppl against 5.7 yppl over their last five games, including being above average against both, the run and the pass. Their offense still isn't great but their passing game has really come alive, and is now averaging 6.6 yps against 6.4 yps and is now above average. The running game, which we know is strong, is averaging just 4.5 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games but they still produce yards out of it and with a stronger passing game, that's just fine. The match up is very favorable for them this week against a Washington defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games and 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps over that same time period. Washington isn't doing anything well on offense either, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 4.7 yps against 5.1 yps. My numbers indicate about a 8.5 point win (all games) to a 10 point win (last five games), giving us some value with Carolina in this favorable match up. This game could be a little higher scoring than we might think with the improved Carolina passing game. CAROLINA 27 WASHINGTON 16
TENNESSEE -10 Jacksonville 44.5
I've been talking for weeks now about Jacksonville continuing to out gain their opponents in yards and yards per play but losing the games because of turnovers. Interestingly enough, they finally won last week, keeping the turnover battle even, but actually losing the yardage battle and the yards per play battle. I still like what they are doing and this team could be a good cover team over the last half of this season. Leftwich will only get better. Their passing game is coming alive, averaging 6.5 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. While only averaging 3.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr, they are still getting yards out of the running game, averaging 108 yards per game this season. And lost in all of this is a good defense, which is allowing just 3.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.6 yps. No question, they'll face a red hot Tennessee team who is hitting on all cylinders right now. Tennessee is averaging 9.1 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. They still aren't running the ball well, averaging 3.2 ypr against 3.7 ypr but their passing game is making up for that. On defense, they are still well below average, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.4 yps. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball on them some. Jacksonville qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY), including the best subset of that, which is 136-58-6 (7-4-1 TY). Jacksonville has played against Houston/Tennessee eight years now on the road and has lost only two of those games by more than 10 points. Final numbers show Tennessee winning this game by 14 (all games) and 12.5 points (last five games) but they don't account for the positive situation Jacksonville is in and I will never lay that many points with a defense like Tennessee's. This game also figures to be higher scoring but I have two solid under situations that apply here, which are 223-121-6 (7-3 TY) and 297-221-11 (11-5 TY). Both of those situations are having great years. Unfortunately I can't go under when my final score predictions are around 51 and 52 points but I can't play the over either with the strong situation suggesting a lower scoring game. TENNESSEE 24 JACKSONVILLE 17
MIAMI -6 Baltimore 33
How Baltimore could possibly lose last week's game is beyond me. Well, actually we know how, because they turned the ball over seven times to only four times for the Rams. But, Baltimore out gained the Rams 267-121 and 3.4 yppl to 2.4 yppl. They out rushed the Rams 145 to 47 and 3.8 ypr to 2.2 ypr and actually out passed the high flying Rams machine, 122 yards to just 74 yards and 3.1 yps to 2.5 yps. And, not only did they lose, but they lost by 11 points, even with that domination. It wasn't very pretty for Miami either, losing at Tennessee, 7-31, getting out rushed 101-59 and out passed 223-165, getting sacked four times and turning the ball over five times to none for Tennessee. Miami is really in a funk and I don't see them getting out of it this week against a good Baltimore defense. Miami is averaging just 4.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games and below average with both, the run and the pass. They are still playing great defense, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. But Baltimore is also playing great defense, allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl and equally above average against both, the run and the pass. The difference is Baltimore has an identity on offense and that is their running game. They are averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. It will be tough for the Ravens to run against a Miami rush defense, allowing just 2.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, but at least Baltimore has an identity, while Miami is still searching for one. Yes, I realize Boller is out of this game but Baltimore is only going to look to run the ball anyway, and with Anthony Wright, at least they can scramble under pressure. I don't see Miami moving the ball much either. With Miami giving up 30+ points last week, they qualify in a negative momentum situation, which plays against them here, that is 169-99-10, including the best subset, which is a 56-18-2 play against here. The Ravens also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 234-163-14. Final numbers only suggest a three point win (all games) and a 4.5 point win (last five games) for Miami. They don't take into account the loss of Kyle Boller but they also don't account for the positive situations Baltimore is in. The Ravens haven't performed well on the road this year, but Miami has now played three teams above .500 and lost to all three of those teams, including two of those games at home. MIAMI 17 BALTIMORE 16
NEW ORLEANS -8.5 Atlanta 44
If you're into team trends, you will note NO has only covered but one of the last 14 games played between these two here in NO the last 14 years. I don't have any situations that favor either team here so we're left with just the match ups to try and figure out who will cover this game. When you have a defense like Atlanta's, it's hard to ever get a favorable match up. Atlanta is now allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 8.6 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. NO is rushing the ball well, gaining 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games but they aren't throwing the ball well, gaining just 6.2 yps against 6.7 yps. They did manage to throw for over 10 yards per pass against Atlanta earlier this year so perhaps their passing game will right itself again this week. The one thing Atlanta has done well, as of late, is rush the ball, averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.7 ypr. They've been well below average passing the ball, gaining just 5.1 yps against 5.8 yps. They could find some success against a NO defense that is allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games. The Saints have played good pass defense, allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Atlanta ran for 130 yards on only 22 carries in their first meeting, averaging 5.9 ypr but that didn't help them in their 17-45 loss to the Saints. My numbers favor NO by seven points (all games) and by 14 points (last five games). Atlanta won their game last week in easy fashion but I think it was more because of a +4 in the turnover department than what they did from a yardage standpoint. They were out gained 320-274 and 4.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl. The Giants rushed for 6.5 ypr and 124 yards. So, it doesn't appear they have corrected their problems, they just won the turnover battle and that allowed them to succeed even though they were getting out played on each play. On the road this year, Atlanta has allowed an average of 146 yards rushing per game at 5.2 ypr. NO has gained at least 103 yards rushing in every game this year except their game at Tennessee, where they were taken out of the game early. They gained 166 yards on 36 carries in their earlier meeting with Atlanta. I originally thought this game might be high scoring because my numbers suggest about 45 to 48 points being scored but I do have a 223-120-6 under situation that applies to this game and that situation is 7-3 to the under this year. I'll take the better team and lean towards the under. NEW ORLEANS 27 ATLANTA 14
INDIANAPOLIS -6 NY Jets 43
This game should be a shootout whether Marvin Harrison plays or not. I still think the Colts offense is good enough and has enough weapons despite the loss of Harrison. And I don't believe the Colts defense is good enough to shut down the Jets offense, especially in a controlled environment, where they can run everything in their offense. Indy continues to throw the ball very well, averaging 8.0 yps against 6.6 yps over their last five games. They aren't running the ball well, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr but that could get a little healthier against the Jets. The Jets are allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and have allowed at least 115 yards rushing in every game but one this year and an average of 155 yards per game, which soars to 168 yards per game on the road. If they continue to do that, they will continue to allow a bunch of points as well. They have faced only one good offense on the road this year and that was New England, where they allowed 23 points. The Jets should be able to move the ball in this game against the Colts defense, which is allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 6.4 yps against 6.3 yps over their last five games. The Jets strength on offense has been their passing game, which is averaging 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. They have also started to rush the ball well, averaging 4.1 ypr against 4.2 ypr in their last five games, but have gained at least 118 yards rushing in each of those games and averaged at least 5.0 ypr in three of their last four games. Indy has allowed at least 21 points in five of their last six games and their offense has scored at least 20 points in every game since their first game and at least 23 in every game but two games. This means we can probably pencil in the Colts to get at least 23 points in this game. Will they give up 20 points? Well, knowing they have allowed at least 21 points in five of their last six games and at least 131 yards rushing in seven or their last eight games, I think we can assume the Jets offense, will get their share of points as well. The Jets have averaged 22 points in their last five games. The Jets also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 107-38-5 (3-1 TY) and my final numbers only show Indy winning this game by 4.5 points (all games) and by two points (last five games). Herm Edwards is now 6-3 as an away dog of more than three points and the Jets have historically been a good road dog team, going 16-4-1 since 1997 as a road dog of more than four points. On the other side, Tony Dungy teams have never performed well as a big favorite, going 13-27-0 as a favorite of four or more points, including 4-7-0 with Indy (1-3-0 TY). And, historically, Indy hasn't been a good favorite team, going 14-30-1 as a home favorite of four or more points, including just 3-6 with Tony Dungy (1-2 TY). The Jets haven't lost here at Indy by more than eight points in the last ten years. I realize a seven or eight point loss would not get the cover but the point is they have been competitive and they are in a great situation this week. We have line value, a 73%+ situation on 145 samples, past team history success in this role, a coaches past history of success in this role against a team with a poor history in their current role and their head coach with a poor history in this role. Only one side in this game and the over looks even better than the side. Yes, I realize the Colts are playing with revenge. You can throw that out in the NFL. Jets are the more desperate team here. INDIANAPOLIS 31 NY JETS 30
DENVER -8.5 San Diego 44
This is a pretty tough game for me to get a read on. Denver's numbers, as of late, aren't that good, but they have been playing without Plummer, which has greatly hurt their passing numbers and their rushing numbers to some extent. The defense has also suffered injuries and that has hurt them as well. For SD, they go with Doug Flutie for a second straight game. It's too bad they don't have a better match up this week because I would like to see Flutie succeed against some worse teams and set up a great play against SD down the road. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen. SD does qualify in the same situation the Jets qualify in, which is a remarkable 107-38-5 and 3-1 this year. And SD has rushed the ball well as of late, gaining 5.3 ypr against 3.9 ypr but they haven't thrown the ball well, gaining just 5.2 yps against 6.0 yps but maybe that will change some with Flutie. The one constant in all of this is the Chargers pass defense, which hasn't been good, allowing 6.6 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. Denver hasn't thrown the ball well as of late, gaining just 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps but that was without Plummer. The Broncos continue to run the ball well, gaining 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr and SD has played much better rush defense, as of late, allowing just 3.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr. I'll lean with SD because of the great situation they are in. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 48-21-4. My final points show about 44 to 45 points being scored, which is too close to the number to play the under. DENVER 23 SAN DIEGO 20
TAMPA BAY -4 Green Bay 40.5
Last week many people saw their bankroll take a hit because they played TB, knowing the Bucs are now 20-2 ats when coming off a loss as a favorite. I'm sure people will point to that trend again this week and also point out TB needs this win badly, along with the fact GB has lost five straight games in TB. But, look a little deeper and realize three of those five losses were by five points or less, so it's not like they haven't been competitive in those games. Last year was another example of playing TB tough but losing the game in the end because of turnovers. In that game, they gained 264 yards at 4.2 yppl to TB's 246 yards at 4.2 yppl. The difference was four costly interceptions by Favre. He's certainly capable of doing that again this week but the Packers offense is much different this time around. They are running the ball with authority and that is taking the pressure off of Favre and putting him in position to succeed. GB is now averaging 5.8 ypr against 4.7 ypr in their last five games and throwing the ball for 6.5 yps against 5.8 yps. The defense isn't playing great, allowing teams to rush for 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr but only throw for 6.2 yps against 6.8 yps. There really isn't anything special about the TB defense right now. They are allowing 5.0 yppl against 5.0 yppl and the most telling sign was last week when they needed to stop Carolina on their last drive but instead allowed Carolina to drive 78 yards on only six plays in only 1:35. That's not a good sign for a defense that is supposed to be extra special. TB still can't run the ball, averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr but they continue to throw the ball well, gaining 6.3 yps against 5.6 yps. TB has allowed teams to rush the ball very effectively on them. They allowed Carolina, in their first game, to rush for 171 yards, NO to rush for 124 yards and SF to rush for 212 yards. They held Carolina to just 78 yards last week but that was without Stephen Davis. And two of those three games mentioned were at home. TB has now lost three of four home games this year so I don't think GB will be intimidated in this game. The Pack qualify in a contrary situation, which is 291-210-10 and they are a turnover table play, which is 765-596-31 and indicates they shouldn't have as many turnover problems this year as they had last year. GB also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 518-400-31 (29-20-2 TY) and a subset of that, which is 419-295-23 (21-12-1 TY). Final numbers only show TB winning by 2.5 points (all games) and 1.5 points (last five games). We have line value along with some solid situations in their favor. And, possibly the Warren Sapp problems from last year, that might just light a fire under the GB offensive line. They took offense to some Chris Hovan talk earlier this year, and came out and played with vengeance and they just might do it again this week. GREEN BAY 27 TAMPA BAY 24
SEATTLE -10.5 Detroit 40.5
I don't have much interest in this game but I will side with the better team, which is Seattle. Detroit does nothing on offense, gaining just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl, but they have played better defense as of late, allowing just 4.5 yppl against 4.7 yppl in their last five games. They'll face a Seahawk defense that really isn't anything special, allowing 4.9 yppl against 4.8 yppl over their last five games. Seattle continues to run the ball well, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.5 yps against 6.2 yps. Mike Holmgren said they will open up the offense more this week and start looking for bigger plays out of the passing game. Seattle has gone under in every home game this year and Detroit has gone under in all but one road game this year, totaling just 40 points in the one game they did go over in. The season long numbers favor Seattle by nine points and the last five games numbers favor them by only 5.5 points. Seattle does qualify in a contrary situation, which is 324-245-20 but they don't qualify in the better subsets of that. Still, I side with them here in a light lean. SEATTLE 27 DETROIT 14
Minnesota -4.5 OAKLAND 45.5
Well, I guess they can't make the Vikings an underdog in this game so their only choice is to make them a favorite. I will admit I think the Vikings have a better chance this week because Oakland doesn't really have an identity on offense. The Vikings last four opponents all did something well on offense but Oakland doesn't fit that mode. Still, the situations go against Minnesota again this week. How one can lay points on the road with a team allowing 5.8 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps is beyond me. And, while the Oakland offense isn't anything special, gaining just 4.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.2 yps against 5.6 yps, this type of defense can get them healthy real quick. The Vikings don't bring any type of pass rush, which should allow Rick Mirer to find time for open receivers. And, if you think the Vikings secondary is going to stop Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter, you haven't watched many Vikings games this year. Charlie Garner and Justin Fargas are salivating, waiting to get their shot against this run defense. If teams have been attacking the outside of the Vikings defense because of their slow (and now we find out injured linebackers), I don't see them stopping the speed of Garner and Fargas. Now, Oakland has their own problems on defense. They are allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games and that should sit just fine with the Vikings offense. Their offense is still throwing the ball well, averaging 7.6 yps against 6.4 yps but the running game has become just average, averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Go back to last week's analysis where I pointed out how many points this Vikings defense has allowed since late of 2000 on the road. It's unbelievable and now they are laying points. Until that changes, I have to continue to take my shots against them. Minnesota qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 156-87-8 play against them here and Oakland is a turnover table play for me this week, which is 765-596-31. I said it last week in the SD game and I'll say it this week. Teams who are covering the spread, when playing teams who aren't covering the spread, are poor propositions and will lead you to a depleted bankroll faster than you can pay the pizza delivery man. That situation pops again this week against the Vikings and is now 271-177-19 (6-2 TY). Oakland also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is now 73-32-8. Of course, I had my biggest play of the year last week on the over. This week, the game qualifies in a 33-11-1 over situation, BUT, it also qualifies in a 48-21-4 under situation. Final predicted points are about 48 to 50 points but I can't play the over when the one situation plays to the under. Last week, Tice said he tried to run the ball more in the second half to keep his defense off the field and he might try that again this week. If they fall way behind again, he won't have a choice but if they can keep it close, he might resort to the run game, especially with Randy Moss a little banged up. It won't matter with that defense. OAKLAND 24 MINNESOTA 20
NEW ENGLAND -4 Dallas 35
Only one situation in this game and it leans towards the Cowboys. This should be a very interesting game with the NE offense, which is averaging 7.2 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games going against the Cowboys pass defense, which is allowing just 3.3 yps against 5.1 yps over their last five games. NE is allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr and, while the Cowboys don't rush the ball particularly well (3.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr), I have to believe Parcells will try and run the ball at them to try and open up his speedy receivers. If NE can't throw the ball, I'm not sure how they'll move the ball because they don't run the ball well enough. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 234-163-14 and the final numbers suggest a four point win (all games) and a six point win (last five games) for NE. Parcells is now 31-13-1 as a road dog of four or more points. NEW ENGLAND 17 DALLAS 16
SAN FRANCISCO -4 Pittsburgh 41
SF has played some great football as of late, especially at home. They are now averaging 4.3 ypr against 3.8 ypr and 6.3 yps against 5.8 yps over their last five games. Pittsburgh has defended the run well, allowing just 3.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they are giving up big plays in the passing game, allowing 6.9 yps against 6.1 yps. On offense, Pittsburgh isn't doing anything well, averaging just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps. Pittsburgh finally got the win last week but they didn't do anything well, getting out gained 379 yards to just 246 yards and 5.0 yppl to 4.7 yppl. The turnovers were even but they did register five sacks, which helped greatly and returned a punt for a touchdown. The only weakness in the 49ers defense, as of late, as been their rush defense, which is allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.9 ypr but the Steelers offensive line just isn't good enough to exploit that. SF qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 25-7-0 and a Monday night situation, which is 59-26-2. Final numbers favor SF by a lot here and the situations do as well. I'll side with SF. SAN FRANCISCO 30 PITTSBURGH 13
BEST BETS
YTD 29-23-2 +12.20%
3% NYJ/INDY OVER 43
2% ARIZONA +6
2% CINCINNATI +6
2% CHICAGO +6.5
2% BALTIMORE +6
2% NY JETS +6
2% GREEN BAY +4
2% OAKLAND +5
2% SAN FRANICSCO -4
