Thursday Night Football:
1* Over 47 110
Just a very small action play for tonight's game. A wiser man that me would be smart and play the under based on the fact that recent history shows that teams play like shit on Thursday games due to the extremely short week to prepare (too little time to heal, gameplan and practice successfully). But I think there will be some points scored tonight.
1* Over 47 110
Just a very small action play for tonight's game. A wiser man that me would be smart and play the under based on the fact that recent history shows that teams play like shit on Thursday games due to the extremely short week to prepare (too little time to heal, gameplan and practice successfully). But I think there will be some points scored tonight.
Feels like a strange weekend ahead. Maybe it's just me. Or can you feel it? Anyway, other than MNF, nothing bigger than a 2* at this point in time. Still capping. But nothing else sticking out to me yet.
NFL Week 10
3* SF OV 46 105
2* BAL -1 110
2* ATL -1 110
2* KC +15 105
2* SEA +8.5 110
1* DEN Over 47 110 (Thurs. Winner)
Week #10 So Far: 1~0......+1.00 units
Season Record: 55~42......+20.60 units
Examining: CHI, PIT, SF, PHI, DET, GB & KC Over
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NFL Week 10
3* SF OV 46 105
2* BAL -1 110
2* ATL -1 110
2* KC +15 105
2* SEA +8.5 110
1* DEN Over 47 110 (Thurs. Winner)
Week #10 So Far: 1~0......+1.00 units
Season Record: 55~42......+20.60 units
Examining: CHI, PIT, SF, PHI, DET, GB & KC Over
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I'll have to agree with you about this being a strange weekend. For one, I'm running the book this week for my local.
hno: I never realized how much of a pain in the ass it is to keep up with a flood of texts/calls in the last hour before gametime. I guess they do really earn that "juice."Anyway, good looking card this week. I really like ATL over NO. Turner and the Falcons 2nd ranked rushing O, should control the ball / clock and give the Bushless Saints all they can handle. And, for what it's worth, ATL falls into the "previous win by 20+ and at home" trend that I like. Was hoping to see you give that game a little more than a 2*, but I'm still pretty confident in making that my top play of the week.
Good luck with the rest of your plays (try to keep 'em under 10 this week). LOL!
Too many plays? I cough hard and have to wipe that many plays off of my fingers on a regular basis, lol.
I like the Saints, for what it's worth. They get Sedrick Ellis back in the middle of their D-Line this week, and are very capable of giving the Falcons an average week running the ball. It's the Saints' secondary that has been easily burned, so Ryan to Jenkins or White will probably be what it takes to win the game. Still, I see no reason why the Falcons should have any success stopping the Saint's offense. The Deuce should have little problem picking up healthy gains versus a 25th ranked run defense that won't be getting any extra help in the box. And that's all set up by the number one rated pass offense in the league versus a statistically average pass defense
I like the Saints, for what it's worth. They get Sedrick Ellis back in the middle of their D-Line this week, and are very capable of giving the Falcons an average week running the ball. It's the Saints' secondary that has been easily burned, so Ryan to Jenkins or White will probably be what it takes to win the game. Still, I see no reason why the Falcons should have any success stopping the Saint's offense. The Deuce should have little problem picking up healthy gains versus a 25th ranked run defense that won't be getting any extra help in the box. And that's all set up by the number one rated pass offense in the league versus a statistically average pass defense
I'll have to agree with you about this being a strange weekend. For one, I'm running the book this week for my local.
Anyway, good looking card this week. I really like ATL over NO. Turner and the Falcons 2nd ranked rushing O, should control the ball / clock and give the Bushless Saints all they can handle. And, for what it's worth, ATL falls into the "previous win by 20+ and at home" trend that I like. Was hoping to see you give that game a little more than a 2*, but I'm still pretty confident in making that my top play of the week.
Good luck with the rest of your plays (try to keep 'em under 10 this week). LOL!
Thanks AJ. And yes, I will definitely try to keep my card below 10 this weekend! I may decide to stop right where I am at currently since it is already a couple plays larger than I intended.
It sounds like you have your hands full this weekend my friend. Good luck with all of that action. Perhaps you'll find a strong play as a result of tailing or fading certain action that seems unusual or noteworthy.
I am sure we'll talk again between now and the games, but BOL in case we don't!
Great points Crunch. And I hate to see you advocating the opposite side. But my attention is drawn towards these two teams personalities both "home" and "away".
Statisically speaking, this game appears to be pretty even when comparing the seasonal and L3 game stats. On the season NO is averaging 27 ppg while ATL is giving up 19 ppg. And ATL is averaging 22 ppg while NO is giving up 24 ppg. This would average out to be about a 23~to~23 type contest. The same for the L3 game stats: NO is averaging 26 ppg with ATL giving up 16 ppg, while ATL is averaging 20 ppg with NO giving up 22 ppg. This would average out to be about a 21~to~21 type contest.
Is the NO pass attack potent? You bet, but ATL is only giving up 177 ypg over the L3 games and 205 ypg over the course of the season versus the pass. Sure the ATL rush defense is a tad soft, but I don't think McAllister is the answer in terms of exploiting any soft advantage that may appear to exist there. I love McAllister. Always have been a big fan. But he's better served having someone like Bush as a change of pace as well as lining up on the perimeter to take some attention away and spread the defense out.
But it is in the "home" and "away" numbers that some things become interesting to me. ATL's rushing average jumps from 163 ypg to 193 ypg at home and their ppg jumps from 22 ppg to 31 ppg.
Have these numbers been inflated by the fact they've faced DET and KC (in addition to CHI) at home? Yes, but there's no question that they are a tough team to beat at home. Combine that with the fact that NO scoring average falls from 27 ppg to 21 ppg on the road and the NO defense scoring average balloons from 24 ppg to 31 ppg. Worse yet, the NO rush defense (109 ypg on the season) and pass defense (237 ypg on the season) also swells to 132 ypg and 254 ypg respectively.
I guess that in my mind, there was just no getting over the fact that for the reasons explained above, that NO is 1~3 SU on the road and ATL is 3~1 at home. That was the bottom line for me.
Thanks for sharing your opinion Crunch. You know I respect it immensely. But I feel pretty good about the dirty birds on Sunday. Either way, BOL with all of your action my friend!
Great job sds.
I really like Atl and KC. For me Bal/Hou is a coin flip game. If I had to play it, it'd be Bal small. Love the fact their opponents qb rating is 67. 3 teams better (gb 58, Ten 60 and Nyg 66).
Only game I disagree is Sea. West to East problem well documented. Sea has 1 road win. In SF. Pennington is running Mia's offense smoothly. I think Sea's players are mailing it in, given Holmgrens lame duck status.
I really like Arz.
bol, my friend.
I really like Atl and KC. For me Bal/Hou is a coin flip game. If I had to play it, it'd be Bal small. Love the fact their opponents qb rating is 67. 3 teams better (gb 58, Ten 60 and Nyg 66).
Only game I disagree is Sea. West to East problem well documented. Sea has 1 road win. In SF. Pennington is running Mia's offense smoothly. I think Sea's players are mailing it in, given Holmgrens lame duck status.
I really like Arz.
bol, my friend.
Thank you sir. Glad to hear you like some of them. Thank you very much for the comments. As far as the SEA play, I definitely hear what you are saying. Travel crossing two time zones has always been a filter of mine (and is especially deadly this season), but in this case I just think that the spread was too vast. Vegas knows Pennington and MIA have looked good, that SEA has looked bad, and that extreme coast to coast is a killer....and as a result they really stretched that spread. A bit too far in my estimation. This just smells like a 24~20 or maybe at worst a 24~17 type of game to me. And if I am wrong, well then at least one of us will be on the winning side of this one.
BOL with all your plays my friend!
