Pulled off a 3-2-1 week last week, and +0.5% for a small gain.
I do have a 4% play this weekend.
All side opinions went 10-3-1 last week and they are now 69-56-3 55% over the first nine weeks this year. Unfortunately, two of those three losses and the push were best bets, so I didn't really take full advantage of my handicapping.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NY Giants -10.5 Atlanta 40.5
Pretty hard to make a case for Atlanta here and I'm not going to try other than to tell you the situations greatly, and I mean greatly, favor them this week. I can't pull the trigger on them knowing they are starting Kurt Kittner at quarterback and replaced all of their secondary last week. And the numbers all suggest this game should be closer to a 11.5 to 15 point spread. But, Atlanta qualifies in a 290-210-11 contrary situation and another 157-102-4 contrary situation. The Giants also qualify in a letdown situation, which might be my best situation, which is a 106-47-4 play against situation, including the subset, which is a remarkable 90-24-2 play against situation. Atlanta is also a turnover table play, which is a 761-593-30 situation. They also qualify in another contrary situation, which is 106-52-2, including 4-0 this year. These are very strong situations and I would not advise playing the Giants this week. Over the last five games, Atlanta's offense has played better, averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including running for 5.2 ypr against 4.5 ypr. Their defense has been horrible, against both the run and the pass, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and a whopping 9.1 yps against 6.7 yps over the last five games. The Giants haven't run the ball well over the last five games, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they continue to throw the ball well, gaining 6.2 yps against 5.7 yps. They've also played great pass defense over the last five games, allowing just 4.8 yps against 6.3 yps but teams have run the ball for 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr over the last five games. So, it's possible Atlanta might be able to run on the Giants somewhat. Using numbers for the whole season, indicate about 49 points being scored in this game but using just the last five games, indicate about 40 points being scored. I also have an under situation, which applies to this game, which is 295-221-11, including being 9-5 to the under this year. It appears this game belongs to Atlanta and the under. NY GIANTS 21 ATLANTA 17
Seattle -3 WASHINGTON 40
Seattle is a strange team, in that they keep winning, but certainly not in dominating fashion. But, their offense is above average, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl and their defense is also above average, allowing 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Meanwhile, they'll take on a Redskins team that appears to have thrown in the towel already. Washington is gaining just 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl the last five games and allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl the last five games. But when you put together all the numbers over the last five games, they only favor Seattle by three points. Washington can't run the ball, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr and can't throw the ball, averaging just 4.5 yps against 5.2 yps. And they've been terrible defending the rush, allowing 4.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and terrible defending the pass, allowing 6.9 yps against 5.9 yps. That doesn't bode well against a Seattle team that hasn't been great but is above average rushing and throwing the ball, including averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and is above average defending both, the run and the pass. But, we all know it just isn't this easy or the bright lights wouldn't be quite as bright as they are on the strip. Seattle qualifies in a play against 70-38-3 letdown situation and with the numbers being fair before applying the situation, Washington actually has some value in this game. But, I like the total more than anything in this game. Seattle will move the ball against a below average Washington defense and I have to believe Washington will perform better at home, while Seattle's defense hasn't been that good on the road this year. Seattle has allowed, not counting their game against Arizona (who was playing without Jeff Blake), 35 points at Green Bay and 27 points at Cincinnati. They also scored 38 at Arizona, 13 at Green Bay and 24 at Cincinnati. The offense can definitely score when asked to. Washington should be good for 20 points at home and I believe Seattle can get at least that many on the road. I like the over in this game and lean towards Washington because of the good situation they qualify in. SEATTLE 26 WASHINGTON 24
PITTSBURGH -7.5 Arizona 40.5
Arizona has looked much better the last couple of weeks since they turned over the rushing game to Marcel Shipp. Over the last five games, Arizona is now averaging 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr and their rush defense is allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr. Now they face a Steelers team who has lost five straight games and can't run the ball, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr, can't throw the ball, averaging just 5.1 yps against 6.0 yps and all of a sudden, can't stop the pass, allowing 7.3 yps against 6.6 yps. They have continued to stop the rush, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games. But, the fact that Arizona can rush the ball, stop the rush and Pittsburgh can't rush the ball, sets up Arizona in a terrific 234-161-14 fundamental rushing situation, which is 4-1 this year. That's enough to get me leaning Arizona's way. PITTSBURGH 23 ARIZONA 17
DETROIT -2 Chicago 37
These two met two weeks ago with Chicago jumping out to a 24-0 lead and holding on to win 24-16. Both team's offenses are below average, with Chicago gaining 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Detroit gaining 4.3 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Both team's defenses are above average, believe it or not, with Chicago allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Detroit allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl. And both teams have stopped the run extremely well over the last five weeks, but Detroit is still allowing teams to pass on them, allowing 5.9 yps against 5.5 yps over the last five weeks. All the numbers I run are pretty close to the line but I like Chicago in this game a little more than Detroit. Chicago is getting a little healthier with Marty Booker returning and Anthony Thomas returning last week. He has really run the ball well the last couple of games he has played. Detroit does qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 108-64-11 but they don't qualify in the best part of that situation, which makes it about .500 without the subset. Detroit had dominated Chicago here up until about four years ago. Since then, Detroit has won by four and three, lost by three and lost by 24, so Chicago has been very competitive as of late. This game also qualifies in a 75-41-1 under situation, which is 2-0 this year. I like the Bears and the under. CHICAGO 17 DETROIT 16
CINCINNATI -5.5 Houston 39
This is a great match up of both teams taking their strengths against the other teams weaknesses. Both teams are throwing the ball well, with Houston averaging 6.7 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games and Cincinnati allowing 6.6 yps against 5.3 yps over their last five games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is averaging 6.3 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games and they will go against Houston, who is allowing 8.8 yps against 7.3 yps. Cincinnati continues to not be able to run the ball, averaging just 3.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr and they are allowing 3.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr. While their defense has been above average stopping the rush over the last five games, the fact that they are only averaging 3.2 ypr and allowing 3.9 ypr doesn't bode well for them laying points in this game. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is a 88-28-5 play against situation. Final numbers also support Houston in this game. With both teams being able to pass the ball, I like the team that is more likely to run the ball and that is Houston. This game would also qualify in a 75-41-1 under situation if the total is below 40 but my final numbers indicate closer to about 44 points being scored. CINCINNATI 20 HOUSTON 17
Tampa Bay -3 CAROLINA 34
Very much aware that Tampa Bay is now 20-1 ats when playing after losing their previous game as a favorite, including 3-0 ats this year and 6-0 ats with Gruden. Also, very aware of Jon Gruden's 18-5 ats record when his teams have lost their last game as a favorite. So, I understand that he has his team ready. But the kind of teams that can beat TB are teams like Carolina. SF did it two weeks ago by running the ball left and right, all over TB. NO gained 124 yards and 4.4 ypr last week. Teams that can control the game by running the ball have a shot against this team. In their first game this year against TB, Carolina ran the ball 40 times and gained 171 yards. Whether it's Stephen Davis or Foster, they should be able to gain their yards on the ground. They aren't great running the ball, evidenced by their 4.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games, but they run it enough to be effective. On defense, they are allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr (average rush defense) but are better against the pass, allowing 6.9 yps against 7.3 yps over the last five games. Yeah, they allowed TB to throw for 337 yards in the first game but with 61 passes and a sack, TB averaged just 5.4 yps. TB continues to not be able to run the ball, averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr and they are allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 6.6 yps against 5.6 yps but their pass defense is much worse than it was a year ago, due somewhat to injuries, allowing 6.1 yps against 6.3 yps. Carolina qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 761-593-30 but they also qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 109-52-6, 132-54-7 and 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY), including a subset of that last one, which is 236-137-12. Many of these same situations applied two weeks ago when SF beat TB and for the same reasons this week, I like Carolina to win again. CAROLINA 20 TAMPA BAY 13
TENNESSEE -5 Miami 40
Last week I mentioned how I had gone against the Rams for the past four weeks and lost before finally winning by going against them last week. I have gone against them because I felt they were over rated. Well, I have gone against Tennessee four straight weeks, winning four weeks ago and losing each of the last three weeks. Back again to go against them. And for the same reasons, which I feel they are a bit over rated. Yes, Tennessee is a good team, but they are still allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, which includes being beaten equally bad on the ground and through the air, 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.6 yps against 6.3 yps. And they continue to not be able to run the ball, averaging just 3.1 ypr against 3.7 ypr over the last five games. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 9.2 yps against 6.8 yps, but they'll face a stiff test against a Miami defense, which is allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.7 yps. Miami lost to Indy last week but they only allowed Indy to throw for 5.9 yps (they average 7.5 yps for the year). Miami has not run the ball real well this year and they are averaging just 3.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games but they stop the rush very well, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr. I think Tennessee will find it a little more difficult to move the ball this week. Tennessee has faced two pretty good teams, in Indianapolis and New England and lost both of those games. And Miami is throwing the ball well enough, averaging 5.8 yps against 5.8 yps over the last five games to be able to do some damage against the Tennessee secondary. The fact that Tennessee can't run the ball, stop the run and Miami can stop the run, sets up Miami in some terrific fundamental rushing situations, which are 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY), including a subset, which is 236-137-12 and Tennessee qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which plays against them and is 88-28-5. Final numbers indicate the line is fair but the situations greatly favor Miami. I like Miami in this game with their defense keeping them in the game, knowing their three losses have come by one, six and six points. MIAMI 24 TENNESSEE 21
Indianapolis -6 JACKSONVILLE 44.5
Jacksonville continued their same pattern last week, in out gaining Baltimore, 320 yards to 259 yards, although losing the yards per play battle, 4.5 ypr to 4.9 ypr, and out rushing Baltimore 134 yards to 103 yards and 4.1 ypr to 3.4 ypr. Unfortunately, much like other weeks, they lost the turnover battle and lost key turnovers in their own territory. They also scored on a fumbled ball so not everything went against them. The Jacksonville numbers are pretty good, averaging 5.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl and allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl over the last five games. But turnovers continue to do them in. This week they face a very solid Indianapolis team who is averaging 6.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including an amazing 8.3 yps against 6.5 yps. They still don't rush the ball well, averaging just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr over the last five games and they still aren't stopping the rush, allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr. That sets Jacksonville up in a 109-54-6 fundamental rushing situation and another fundamental rushing situation, which is 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY), including a subset, which is 236-137-12. Jacksonville also qualifies in some contrary situations, which are 54-21-1, my turnover table situation, which is 761-593-30, including a subset, which is 65-28-2. They also qualify in a contrary situation, which plays on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. If you think taking the good teams who are covering against the bad teams who aren't covering, is the way to go, be advised that is a very quick way to the poorhouse. That premise sets up Jacksonville in a situation, which is 269-177-19. That's 60% winners on well over 460 plays, including 4-2 this year. If you want to play against those numbers, be my guest. The Jacksonville defense has played very well over the last five games, allowing just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.2 yps against 6.5 yps. If Bryon Leftwich can just hold on to the ball and not throw the interception or fumble, his team has a chance to win these games. I think the over is a good look here as well. I will avoid playing it because I think the number is a little higher than I would like but Jacksonville has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year, despite their positive numbers, from a yards per play perspective, and Indy has scored at least 20 points in every game since the first game. They had also allowed at least 21 points in four straight games until last weekend. INDIANAPOLIS 27 JACKSONVILLE 24
KANSAS CITY -10 Cleveland 43.5
KC comes off their bye and a 38-5 win over Buffalo the week before their bye. Cleveland is also playing off a bye. The situations favor Cleveland here and they qualify in my turnover table system, which is 761-593-30, including a subset of that, which is 121-69-4 and 4-0 this year. Cleveland has a lot of problems on offense right now, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.2 yppl but most of that has come from a below average passing game, which is averaging just 4.9 yps against 6.2 yps over the last five games. Their rushing attack has gotten better, averaging 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr and should do some damage, even without Green, against a KC rush defense that is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.7 ypr over the last five games. Cleveland hasn't done a good job of stopping the rush lately, either, allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games, while KC is averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. KC has thrown the ball very well as of late, averaging 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps over the last five games. Cleveland has done a nice job of stopping the pass, allowing just 5.5 yps against 5.7 yps as of late, but KC will get their yards through the air. This is a lot of points and my numbers are close to the line. The Browns have been very competitive this year, losing only one game by more than 7 points. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 223-119-6, including 7-2 this year. My final points prediction also predict a low scoring game. I have a hard time going under in a KC game, as well as going under with the Browns who tend to come out and throw the ball too much at times, especially when they know they will have to score to stay in this game. Still, the under seems to be the right side. KANSAS CITY 21 CLEVELAND 14
Minnesota -6 SAN DIEGO 43.5
Let me just say this first. I have a 4% play on the over in this game and it is my highest rated play so far this year. I don't have GOY's and all that stuff, so this might end up being my highest rated play this year and it might not. I don't know, but I do know it is rated very high. Having said that, it is only a 4% play. Nothing more, nothing less. Treat it like that and don't abuse your bankroll.
There is nothing better in handicapping the NFL than when an overrated team starts out hot, especially with their offense, and they become the darlings of the NFL to every 'square' player out there. The Vikings did this in 2000 and took their horrible defense to NY for the Conference Championship game and I gladly made the Giants a 5% play that afternoon. I realize the Chargers are not the Giants of 2000 but there are plenty of reasons to like SD in this game. SD qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 54-21-1 and plays on home teams with a winning percentage of .200 or worse when an underdog of more than five, if they are facing a team with a winning record. That situation improves to 48-13-1 if the total is higher than 35 points and 14-5 if our play against team is coming off a loss. And it is 42-10-1 if our play against team is coming off a home game. I'm sure there have been just as bad of teams in that 42-10-1 sampling as SD appears to be right now. And if our play against team is coming off a loss as a favorite, the situation is 13-2-0. So, there is no reason to believe Minnesota will play better because they are focused to play better after a loss. What about after consecutive losses? The situation is 4-0 in that spot, including 1-0 if both losses were at home. SD also qualifies as a turnover table play this week. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Minnesota's success was coming, in large part, because of the turnovers they were creating. They were still giving up large chunks of yardage on the ground but not giving up scores because they were creating turnovers. Those things tend to even out, and over the last two weeks, they haven't gone Minnesota's way and they have lost both games. That turnover situation is 761-593-30 and they qualify in two separate subsets, which are 65-28-2 (1-0 TY) and 124-67-3. SD also qualifies in a contrary situation that plays against teams who have been covering and on teams who have not been covering. If you think teams that cover the spread just keep covering the spread and vice versa, there are a lot of bookies in this world, that would love to take your action. That premise alone is a losing premise and SD falls into the right situation, which is 269-177-19, including 4-2 already this year. So, you don't believe in technical situations. Let's try some fundamental situations, which are 109-54-6, and 132-54-7, and 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY). Way too many situations favoring SD here.
How about some facts, rather than just situations. Minnesota is allowing 6.2 yppl against teams averaging just 5.4 yppl over their last five games. That's almost a full yard more than what their opponents are averaging. SD is averaging 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The average yards per play over the last five games in the NFL is 5.2 yppl. If SD is averaging 0.2 more and Minnesota is allowing 0.8 more, then SD can figure to gain 1.0 yards more than the average, which means they will gain about 6.2 yppl in this game. If you want to be laying points on the road against a team who will gain over 6.0 yppl, be my guest. How bad as it been for the Vikings defense? They are allowing 5.6 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.9 yps. I know, you say, Minnesota will look to stop the run and then SD won't be able to throw the ball. Wake up! You don't think Tice knew GB was going to run. Tice said again and again this week, he knew exactly what GB was going to do and they didn't run many different plays at all, they just couldn't stop them. That doesn't bode well for them this week. So you say, but this is SD and not GB. SD can run the ball. They are averaging 5.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr over the last five games. That's 1.1 ypr more than their opponents are allowing. That's equal to what GB is doing. SD hasn't thrown the ball as well as GB but when you are running the ball, and they will be able to run the ball, then you can throw the ball.
Think about this. SD hasn't played a home game since September 21st. That's almost two full months ago. All the public is thinking is how bad they looked on Monday night against a good Miami team. You would too if you had to pack everything up in less than 12 hours and move everything to Arizona. And then the following week, you had to leave on Wednesday for Chicago because of the fires back home. So, now you are preparing for the game in an environment that you are not used to. But, now they are back home. And, for Minnesota, when was the last time they played on the road? Well, it was October 5th and the last time they played outside was the first game of the year at Green Bay. So you say Minnesota has played quality teams in their last three games and the stats are misleading. Sorry, but the last time they played a team like SD (Atlanta), they allowed 26 points. Oh, btw, the SD offense is better than the Atlanta offense. The only thing that allowed Minnesota to win that game was they won the turnover battle 3 to 1. Atlanta gained 440 yards in that game, averaging 7.3 yppl to only 399 yards and 6.2 yppl for Minnesota. Atlanta averaged 6.1 ypr in that game and passed for 8.2 yps. SD has struggled against good defenses this year. They have played against Denver (before their rash of injuries on defense), Baltimore and Miami. Even Chicago's defense is above average, despite what some might say. For the year, Chicago is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl and 319 yards per game against teams averaging 324 yards per game. And remember, they had to travel early to Chicago in a bad situation. They also faced a Jacksonville defense, which is above average (4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl and 300 yards per game against 318 yards per game) and a Cleveland defense, which is above average but their rush defense is well below average (4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr). In actuality they have only faced two below average defenses (Kansas City being one and they are about average), and they ripped right through the Oakland defense, scoring 31 points, in losing 31-34. They gained 430 yards at 6.1 yppl against Oakland and rushed for 222 yards at 5.7 ypr and against Cleveland (the other bad rushing defense they have faced), they gained 228 yards rushing at 6.3 ypr and scored 26 points.
Minnesota has now allowed at least 20 points in four straight games and 25 and 26 points on the road against the only two good offenses they have played this year (GB and Atlanta - who isn't that good on offense but can run the ball). Now, Minnesota will get their share of points in this game. SD is allowing 6.5 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games and Minnesota is still averaging 7.9 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games. SD has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year and Minnesota has scored at least 23 points in every game except the Giants game. Minnesota will get their 23-30 points in this game but SD will get their share as well. Since their game at St. Louis in December of 2000, the Minnesota defense has allowed the following points on the road, in order, 40, 31, 41, 17, 28, 41, 48, 21, 27, 24, 19, 27, 48, 20, 38, 24, 26, 31, 36, 25, 13, 26. The 13 point effort this year against Detroit, came when Detroit failed to score on 1st and goal from the one yard line, so that game could have been at least 20 points as well. That means, over their last 22 road games, they have failed to hold the opponent below 20 points in only three of those. The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Minnesota Vikings still don't play defense. Easy over in this game. SAN DIEGO 33 MINNESOTA 31
DALLAS -4 Buffalo 37
Same story as last week for me here. Dallas is favored by a short number, that seems to be way too short, but the situations favor Buffalo. Buffalo qualifies in turnover table system, which is 761-593-30 but Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. While the Buffalo offense has performed just as bad as the Washington offense, as of late, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.2 yppl, their defense continues to play well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. Dallas continues to play terrific defense, allowing just 3.6 yppl against 4.6 yppl over their last five games, including just 3.5 yps against 5.1 yps. Their offense, as a whole, as been below average, but they are throwing the ball well, gaining 6.4 yps against 6.0 yps. Buffalo hasn't played well away from home this year, losing three of four, and all the losses were by at least 10 points. Still, with a good defense and off a bye week to get healthier and clear the mind, I think they will play well this week. Although I don't have any situations to favor the under, the under looks like the way to go here. DALLAS 17 BUFFALO 14
NY Jets -3 OAKLAND 38
How bad is Oakland? I mentioned last week there have been numerous times when it appeared Oakland would finally come to play, and they have yet to perform. That's as sure a sign of a dead team as any. I have no situations that favor either team here but this game is pretty simple. The numbers lean towards the Jets slightly. The Jets have a better offense and defense and throw the ball well, averaging 6.1 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games, while Oakland is allowing 5.5 yps against 5.2 yps over their last five games and allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Jets have allowed 4.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, while Oakland is averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr, so Oakland might be able to run the ball some. But, it would appear the Jets want this game much more than Oakland and that makes this pick easy for me. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 75-41-1 and 2-0 this year. NY JETS 20 OAKLAND 14
ST. LOUIS -7 Baltimore 43
I won't officially be going against the Rams this week but I will still lean against them. The Rams have played better rush defense as of late, allowing just 4.2 ypr against 4.6 ypr but they'll have their hands full this week against Baltimore, who is averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. The Rams still can't run the ball themselves, gaining just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and Baltimore has only allowed 3.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games. As bad as the Baltimore passing offense has been this year, averaging just 4.8 yps against 5.9 yps (for the whole season), they have improved over their last five games, averaging 5.8 yps against 6.1 yps and that might sit just fine against a Rams defense that is allowing 6.1 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. For the Rams, they continue to throw the ball well, gaining 7.9 yps against 6.7 yps over the last five games, but they will face a stiff challenge from Baltimore, who is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Baltimore's ability to rush the ball qualifies them in a solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 234-161-14 (4-1 TY) and my final numbers are close to this line, which ends up leaning towards Baltimore, when you factor in the positive situation they are in. I would also lean towards the over in this game. ST LOUIS 26 BALTIMORE 21
GREEN BAY -4.5 Philadelphia 43.5
How good did GB look last week? Sharp, quick and just about perfect. Of course, when you are facing the Vikings defense, you sometimes tend to look that way. I pointed out after week one's loss to Minnesota that Green Bay actually played Minnesota pretty well on defense, from a yards per play perspective, but the turnovers killed them and aided Minnesota in scoring in that game. After another loss at Arizona, people were ready to send GB off for the season, but injuries hurt this team badly and the bye came at a perfect time for them. Remember, they led KC by 17 points and injuries to their secondary really hindered their ability to hold on to that lead, and an interception return for a touchdown. There isn't a better, more balanced offense in the league over their last five games than GB. The Pack has averaged 6.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl over the last five games, which is better than Indy (6.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl) and better than Tennessee (6.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl). GB has also averaged 32 points against teams allowing 19 points, over the last five games. Indy has averaged 33 points against 19 points so they are one point better in scoring. But, GB is doing it with both, the run and the pass, averaging 5.8 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 6.8 yps against 5.8 yps. They are giving up large chunks of yards on the ground, allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr but the pass defense has been very good, allowing just 6.0 yps against 6.8 yps. But when you consider whom the Packers have just played against, I don't think their rush defense looks so bad. They have just finished playing Chicago (with Thomas and Stewart - who scrambled for a lot of rushing yards), Seattle, Kansas City, St. Louis (who hasn't rushed the ball well this year) and Minnesota. Those teams are some pretty solid rushing teams. And good passing teams too, but they have held them in check, for the most part. They limited Minnesota to 5.5 yps last week and only 5.7 yps in their first game (Minnesota averages 7.6 yps for the season). Philly still isn't throwing the ball well, averaging just 4.7 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games and they haven't run the ball as well, as of late, averaging just 4.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The Philly defense has been just above average over their last five games, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.7 yps for a total of 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl. GB qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 59-25-2 and they would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 132-54-7 if the line is -4 or less. Philly does qualify in a contrary situation, which is 120-54-6 but they don't qualify in the subset of that situation, which makes it just 16-17 without the subset. This game also qualifies in a couple of really good under situations, which are 295-221-11 (9-5 TY) and 144-71-2 (5-1 TY), but my final predicted score is at least 43 points and up to 58 points using one prediction model. That makes it very hard to play the under despite the great situations that apply. Those numbers also favor GB heavily too. I will play GB as a -4 or better favorite and lean towards the under because of the situations that apply, even though my numbers don't support it. GREEN BAY 27 PHILADELPHIA 13
BEST BETS
YTD 24-22-2 +2.40%
4% MINNESOTA/SAN DIEGO OVER 44 This becomes a 3% play if higher than 44
2% SEATTLE/WASHINGTON OVER 40.5
2% CAROLINA +3
2% MIAMI +5
2% JACKSONVILLE +6
2% SAN DIEGO +6
Possible play:
2% GREEN BAY -4 or less
I do have a 4% play this weekend.
All side opinions went 10-3-1 last week and they are now 69-56-3 55% over the first nine weeks this year. Unfortunately, two of those three losses and the push were best bets, so I didn't really take full advantage of my handicapping.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NY Giants -10.5 Atlanta 40.5
Pretty hard to make a case for Atlanta here and I'm not going to try other than to tell you the situations greatly, and I mean greatly, favor them this week. I can't pull the trigger on them knowing they are starting Kurt Kittner at quarterback and replaced all of their secondary last week. And the numbers all suggest this game should be closer to a 11.5 to 15 point spread. But, Atlanta qualifies in a 290-210-11 contrary situation and another 157-102-4 contrary situation. The Giants also qualify in a letdown situation, which might be my best situation, which is a 106-47-4 play against situation, including the subset, which is a remarkable 90-24-2 play against situation. Atlanta is also a turnover table play, which is a 761-593-30 situation. They also qualify in another contrary situation, which is 106-52-2, including 4-0 this year. These are very strong situations and I would not advise playing the Giants this week. Over the last five games, Atlanta's offense has played better, averaging 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including running for 5.2 ypr against 4.5 ypr. Their defense has been horrible, against both the run and the pass, allowing 4.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and a whopping 9.1 yps against 6.7 yps over the last five games. The Giants haven't run the ball well over the last five games, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr but they continue to throw the ball well, gaining 6.2 yps against 5.7 yps. They've also played great pass defense over the last five games, allowing just 4.8 yps against 6.3 yps but teams have run the ball for 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr over the last five games. So, it's possible Atlanta might be able to run on the Giants somewhat. Using numbers for the whole season, indicate about 49 points being scored in this game but using just the last five games, indicate about 40 points being scored. I also have an under situation, which applies to this game, which is 295-221-11, including being 9-5 to the under this year. It appears this game belongs to Atlanta and the under. NY GIANTS 21 ATLANTA 17
Seattle -3 WASHINGTON 40
Seattle is a strange team, in that they keep winning, but certainly not in dominating fashion. But, their offense is above average, gaining 5.6 yppl against 5.3 yppl and their defense is also above average, allowing 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl. Meanwhile, they'll take on a Redskins team that appears to have thrown in the towel already. Washington is gaining just 4.1 yppl against 4.7 yppl the last five games and allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl the last five games. But when you put together all the numbers over the last five games, they only favor Seattle by three points. Washington can't run the ball, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 3.8 ypr and can't throw the ball, averaging just 4.5 yps against 5.2 yps. And they've been terrible defending the rush, allowing 4.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and terrible defending the pass, allowing 6.9 yps against 5.9 yps. That doesn't bode well against a Seattle team that hasn't been great but is above average rushing and throwing the ball, including averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and is above average defending both, the run and the pass. But, we all know it just isn't this easy or the bright lights wouldn't be quite as bright as they are on the strip. Seattle qualifies in a play against 70-38-3 letdown situation and with the numbers being fair before applying the situation, Washington actually has some value in this game. But, I like the total more than anything in this game. Seattle will move the ball against a below average Washington defense and I have to believe Washington will perform better at home, while Seattle's defense hasn't been that good on the road this year. Seattle has allowed, not counting their game against Arizona (who was playing without Jeff Blake), 35 points at Green Bay and 27 points at Cincinnati. They also scored 38 at Arizona, 13 at Green Bay and 24 at Cincinnati. The offense can definitely score when asked to. Washington should be good for 20 points at home and I believe Seattle can get at least that many on the road. I like the over in this game and lean towards Washington because of the good situation they qualify in. SEATTLE 26 WASHINGTON 24
PITTSBURGH -7.5 Arizona 40.5
Arizona has looked much better the last couple of weeks since they turned over the rushing game to Marcel Shipp. Over the last five games, Arizona is now averaging 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr and their rush defense is allowing just 3.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr. Now they face a Steelers team who has lost five straight games and can't run the ball, averaging just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr, can't throw the ball, averaging just 5.1 yps against 6.0 yps and all of a sudden, can't stop the pass, allowing 7.3 yps against 6.6 yps. They have continued to stop the rush, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games. But, the fact that Arizona can rush the ball, stop the rush and Pittsburgh can't rush the ball, sets up Arizona in a terrific 234-161-14 fundamental rushing situation, which is 4-1 this year. That's enough to get me leaning Arizona's way. PITTSBURGH 23 ARIZONA 17
DETROIT -2 Chicago 37
These two met two weeks ago with Chicago jumping out to a 24-0 lead and holding on to win 24-16. Both team's offenses are below average, with Chicago gaining 4.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Detroit gaining 4.3 yppl against 4.8 yppl. Both team's defenses are above average, believe it or not, with Chicago allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Detroit allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl. And both teams have stopped the run extremely well over the last five weeks, but Detroit is still allowing teams to pass on them, allowing 5.9 yps against 5.5 yps over the last five weeks. All the numbers I run are pretty close to the line but I like Chicago in this game a little more than Detroit. Chicago is getting a little healthier with Marty Booker returning and Anthony Thomas returning last week. He has really run the ball well the last couple of games he has played. Detroit does qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 108-64-11 but they don't qualify in the best part of that situation, which makes it about .500 without the subset. Detroit had dominated Chicago here up until about four years ago. Since then, Detroit has won by four and three, lost by three and lost by 24, so Chicago has been very competitive as of late. This game also qualifies in a 75-41-1 under situation, which is 2-0 this year. I like the Bears and the under. CHICAGO 17 DETROIT 16
CINCINNATI -5.5 Houston 39
This is a great match up of both teams taking their strengths against the other teams weaknesses. Both teams are throwing the ball well, with Houston averaging 6.7 yps against 6.2 yps over their last five games and Cincinnati allowing 6.6 yps against 5.3 yps over their last five games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is averaging 6.3 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games and they will go against Houston, who is allowing 8.8 yps against 7.3 yps. Cincinnati continues to not be able to run the ball, averaging just 3.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr and they are allowing 3.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr. While their defense has been above average stopping the rush over the last five games, the fact that they are only averaging 3.2 ypr and allowing 3.9 ypr doesn't bode well for them laying points in this game. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is a 88-28-5 play against situation. Final numbers also support Houston in this game. With both teams being able to pass the ball, I like the team that is more likely to run the ball and that is Houston. This game would also qualify in a 75-41-1 under situation if the total is below 40 but my final numbers indicate closer to about 44 points being scored. CINCINNATI 20 HOUSTON 17
Tampa Bay -3 CAROLINA 34
Very much aware that Tampa Bay is now 20-1 ats when playing after losing their previous game as a favorite, including 3-0 ats this year and 6-0 ats with Gruden. Also, very aware of Jon Gruden's 18-5 ats record when his teams have lost their last game as a favorite. So, I understand that he has his team ready. But the kind of teams that can beat TB are teams like Carolina. SF did it two weeks ago by running the ball left and right, all over TB. NO gained 124 yards and 4.4 ypr last week. Teams that can control the game by running the ball have a shot against this team. In their first game this year against TB, Carolina ran the ball 40 times and gained 171 yards. Whether it's Stephen Davis or Foster, they should be able to gain their yards on the ground. They aren't great running the ball, evidenced by their 4.7 ypr against 4.6 ypr over their last five games, but they run it enough to be effective. On defense, they are allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.9 ypr (average rush defense) but are better against the pass, allowing 6.9 yps against 7.3 yps over the last five games. Yeah, they allowed TB to throw for 337 yards in the first game but with 61 passes and a sack, TB averaged just 5.4 yps. TB continues to not be able to run the ball, averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr and they are allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.8 ypr. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 6.6 yps against 5.6 yps but their pass defense is much worse than it was a year ago, due somewhat to injuries, allowing 6.1 yps against 6.3 yps. Carolina qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 761-593-30 but they also qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 109-52-6, 132-54-7 and 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY), including a subset of that last one, which is 236-137-12. Many of these same situations applied two weeks ago when SF beat TB and for the same reasons this week, I like Carolina to win again. CAROLINA 20 TAMPA BAY 13
TENNESSEE -5 Miami 40
Last week I mentioned how I had gone against the Rams for the past four weeks and lost before finally winning by going against them last week. I have gone against them because I felt they were over rated. Well, I have gone against Tennessee four straight weeks, winning four weeks ago and losing each of the last three weeks. Back again to go against them. And for the same reasons, which I feel they are a bit over rated. Yes, Tennessee is a good team, but they are still allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games, which includes being beaten equally bad on the ground and through the air, 4.4 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.6 yps against 6.3 yps. And they continue to not be able to run the ball, averaging just 3.1 ypr against 3.7 ypr over the last five games. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 9.2 yps against 6.8 yps, but they'll face a stiff test against a Miami defense, which is allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.7 yps. Miami lost to Indy last week but they only allowed Indy to throw for 5.9 yps (they average 7.5 yps for the year). Miami has not run the ball real well this year and they are averaging just 3.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games but they stop the rush very well, allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr. I think Tennessee will find it a little more difficult to move the ball this week. Tennessee has faced two pretty good teams, in Indianapolis and New England and lost both of those games. And Miami is throwing the ball well enough, averaging 5.8 yps against 5.8 yps over the last five games to be able to do some damage against the Tennessee secondary. The fact that Tennessee can't run the ball, stop the run and Miami can stop the run, sets up Miami in some terrific fundamental rushing situations, which are 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY), including a subset, which is 236-137-12 and Tennessee qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which plays against them and is 88-28-5. Final numbers indicate the line is fair but the situations greatly favor Miami. I like Miami in this game with their defense keeping them in the game, knowing their three losses have come by one, six and six points. MIAMI 24 TENNESSEE 21
Indianapolis -6 JACKSONVILLE 44.5
Jacksonville continued their same pattern last week, in out gaining Baltimore, 320 yards to 259 yards, although losing the yards per play battle, 4.5 ypr to 4.9 ypr, and out rushing Baltimore 134 yards to 103 yards and 4.1 ypr to 3.4 ypr. Unfortunately, much like other weeks, they lost the turnover battle and lost key turnovers in their own territory. They also scored on a fumbled ball so not everything went against them. The Jacksonville numbers are pretty good, averaging 5.3 yppl against 5.4 yppl and allowing just 4.9 yppl against 5.3 yppl over the last five games. But turnovers continue to do them in. This week they face a very solid Indianapolis team who is averaging 6.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl, including an amazing 8.3 yps against 6.5 yps. They still don't rush the ball well, averaging just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr over the last five games and they still aren't stopping the rush, allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.2 ypr. That sets Jacksonville up in a 109-54-6 fundamental rushing situation and another fundamental rushing situation, which is 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY), including a subset, which is 236-137-12. Jacksonville also qualifies in some contrary situations, which are 54-21-1, my turnover table situation, which is 761-593-30, including a subset, which is 65-28-2. They also qualify in a contrary situation, which plays on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. If you think taking the good teams who are covering against the bad teams who aren't covering, is the way to go, be advised that is a very quick way to the poorhouse. That premise sets up Jacksonville in a situation, which is 269-177-19. That's 60% winners on well over 460 plays, including 4-2 this year. If you want to play against those numbers, be my guest. The Jacksonville defense has played very well over the last five games, allowing just 3.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.2 yps against 6.5 yps. If Bryon Leftwich can just hold on to the ball and not throw the interception or fumble, his team has a chance to win these games. I think the over is a good look here as well. I will avoid playing it because I think the number is a little higher than I would like but Jacksonville has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year, despite their positive numbers, from a yards per play perspective, and Indy has scored at least 20 points in every game since the first game. They had also allowed at least 21 points in four straight games until last weekend. INDIANAPOLIS 27 JACKSONVILLE 24
KANSAS CITY -10 Cleveland 43.5
KC comes off their bye and a 38-5 win over Buffalo the week before their bye. Cleveland is also playing off a bye. The situations favor Cleveland here and they qualify in my turnover table system, which is 761-593-30, including a subset of that, which is 121-69-4 and 4-0 this year. Cleveland has a lot of problems on offense right now, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.2 yppl but most of that has come from a below average passing game, which is averaging just 4.9 yps against 6.2 yps over the last five games. Their rushing attack has gotten better, averaging 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr and should do some damage, even without Green, against a KC rush defense that is allowing 5.2 ypr against 4.7 ypr over the last five games. Cleveland hasn't done a good job of stopping the rush lately, either, allowing 4.1 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games, while KC is averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. KC has thrown the ball very well as of late, averaging 6.8 yps against 5.7 yps over the last five games. Cleveland has done a nice job of stopping the pass, allowing just 5.5 yps against 5.7 yps as of late, but KC will get their yards through the air. This is a lot of points and my numbers are close to the line. The Browns have been very competitive this year, losing only one game by more than 7 points. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 223-119-6, including 7-2 this year. My final points prediction also predict a low scoring game. I have a hard time going under in a KC game, as well as going under with the Browns who tend to come out and throw the ball too much at times, especially when they know they will have to score to stay in this game. Still, the under seems to be the right side. KANSAS CITY 21 CLEVELAND 14
Minnesota -6 SAN DIEGO 43.5
Let me just say this first. I have a 4% play on the over in this game and it is my highest rated play so far this year. I don't have GOY's and all that stuff, so this might end up being my highest rated play this year and it might not. I don't know, but I do know it is rated very high. Having said that, it is only a 4% play. Nothing more, nothing less. Treat it like that and don't abuse your bankroll.
There is nothing better in handicapping the NFL than when an overrated team starts out hot, especially with their offense, and they become the darlings of the NFL to every 'square' player out there. The Vikings did this in 2000 and took their horrible defense to NY for the Conference Championship game and I gladly made the Giants a 5% play that afternoon. I realize the Chargers are not the Giants of 2000 but there are plenty of reasons to like SD in this game. SD qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 54-21-1 and plays on home teams with a winning percentage of .200 or worse when an underdog of more than five, if they are facing a team with a winning record. That situation improves to 48-13-1 if the total is higher than 35 points and 14-5 if our play against team is coming off a loss. And it is 42-10-1 if our play against team is coming off a home game. I'm sure there have been just as bad of teams in that 42-10-1 sampling as SD appears to be right now. And if our play against team is coming off a loss as a favorite, the situation is 13-2-0. So, there is no reason to believe Minnesota will play better because they are focused to play better after a loss. What about after consecutive losses? The situation is 4-0 in that spot, including 1-0 if both losses were at home. SD also qualifies as a turnover table play this week. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Minnesota's success was coming, in large part, because of the turnovers they were creating. They were still giving up large chunks of yardage on the ground but not giving up scores because they were creating turnovers. Those things tend to even out, and over the last two weeks, they haven't gone Minnesota's way and they have lost both games. That turnover situation is 761-593-30 and they qualify in two separate subsets, which are 65-28-2 (1-0 TY) and 124-67-3. SD also qualifies in a contrary situation that plays against teams who have been covering and on teams who have not been covering. If you think teams that cover the spread just keep covering the spread and vice versa, there are a lot of bookies in this world, that would love to take your action. That premise alone is a losing premise and SD falls into the right situation, which is 269-177-19, including 4-2 already this year. So, you don't believe in technical situations. Let's try some fundamental situations, which are 109-54-6, and 132-54-7, and 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY). Way too many situations favoring SD here.
How about some facts, rather than just situations. Minnesota is allowing 6.2 yppl against teams averaging just 5.4 yppl over their last five games. That's almost a full yard more than what their opponents are averaging. SD is averaging 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The average yards per play over the last five games in the NFL is 5.2 yppl. If SD is averaging 0.2 more and Minnesota is allowing 0.8 more, then SD can figure to gain 1.0 yards more than the average, which means they will gain about 6.2 yppl in this game. If you want to be laying points on the road against a team who will gain over 6.0 yppl, be my guest. How bad as it been for the Vikings defense? They are allowing 5.6 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 6.5 yps against 5.9 yps. I know, you say, Minnesota will look to stop the run and then SD won't be able to throw the ball. Wake up! You don't think Tice knew GB was going to run. Tice said again and again this week, he knew exactly what GB was going to do and they didn't run many different plays at all, they just couldn't stop them. That doesn't bode well for them this week. So you say, but this is SD and not GB. SD can run the ball. They are averaging 5.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr over the last five games. That's 1.1 ypr more than their opponents are allowing. That's equal to what GB is doing. SD hasn't thrown the ball as well as GB but when you are running the ball, and they will be able to run the ball, then you can throw the ball.
Think about this. SD hasn't played a home game since September 21st. That's almost two full months ago. All the public is thinking is how bad they looked on Monday night against a good Miami team. You would too if you had to pack everything up in less than 12 hours and move everything to Arizona. And then the following week, you had to leave on Wednesday for Chicago because of the fires back home. So, now you are preparing for the game in an environment that you are not used to. But, now they are back home. And, for Minnesota, when was the last time they played on the road? Well, it was October 5th and the last time they played outside was the first game of the year at Green Bay. So you say Minnesota has played quality teams in their last three games and the stats are misleading. Sorry, but the last time they played a team like SD (Atlanta), they allowed 26 points. Oh, btw, the SD offense is better than the Atlanta offense. The only thing that allowed Minnesota to win that game was they won the turnover battle 3 to 1. Atlanta gained 440 yards in that game, averaging 7.3 yppl to only 399 yards and 6.2 yppl for Minnesota. Atlanta averaged 6.1 ypr in that game and passed for 8.2 yps. SD has struggled against good defenses this year. They have played against Denver (before their rash of injuries on defense), Baltimore and Miami. Even Chicago's defense is above average, despite what some might say. For the year, Chicago is allowing 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl and 319 yards per game against teams averaging 324 yards per game. And remember, they had to travel early to Chicago in a bad situation. They also faced a Jacksonville defense, which is above average (4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl and 300 yards per game against 318 yards per game) and a Cleveland defense, which is above average but their rush defense is well below average (4.8 ypr against 4.1 ypr). In actuality they have only faced two below average defenses (Kansas City being one and they are about average), and they ripped right through the Oakland defense, scoring 31 points, in losing 31-34. They gained 430 yards at 6.1 yppl against Oakland and rushed for 222 yards at 5.7 ypr and against Cleveland (the other bad rushing defense they have faced), they gained 228 yards rushing at 6.3 ypr and scored 26 points.
Minnesota has now allowed at least 20 points in four straight games and 25 and 26 points on the road against the only two good offenses they have played this year (GB and Atlanta - who isn't that good on offense but can run the ball). Now, Minnesota will get their share of points in this game. SD is allowing 6.5 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games and Minnesota is still averaging 7.9 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games. SD has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year and Minnesota has scored at least 23 points in every game except the Giants game. Minnesota will get their 23-30 points in this game but SD will get their share as well. Since their game at St. Louis in December of 2000, the Minnesota defense has allowed the following points on the road, in order, 40, 31, 41, 17, 28, 41, 48, 21, 27, 24, 19, 27, 48, 20, 38, 24, 26, 31, 36, 25, 13, 26. The 13 point effort this year against Detroit, came when Detroit failed to score on 1st and goal from the one yard line, so that game could have been at least 20 points as well. That means, over their last 22 road games, they have failed to hold the opponent below 20 points in only three of those. The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Minnesota Vikings still don't play defense. Easy over in this game. SAN DIEGO 33 MINNESOTA 31
DALLAS -4 Buffalo 37
Same story as last week for me here. Dallas is favored by a short number, that seems to be way too short, but the situations favor Buffalo. Buffalo qualifies in turnover table system, which is 761-593-30 but Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 515-398-30 (26-18-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. While the Buffalo offense has performed just as bad as the Washington offense, as of late, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.2 yppl, their defense continues to play well, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 4.9 yppl and above average against both, the run and the pass. Dallas continues to play terrific defense, allowing just 3.6 yppl against 4.6 yppl over their last five games, including just 3.5 yps against 5.1 yps. Their offense, as a whole, as been below average, but they are throwing the ball well, gaining 6.4 yps against 6.0 yps. Buffalo hasn't played well away from home this year, losing three of four, and all the losses were by at least 10 points. Still, with a good defense and off a bye week to get healthier and clear the mind, I think they will play well this week. Although I don't have any situations to favor the under, the under looks like the way to go here. DALLAS 17 BUFFALO 14
NY Jets -3 OAKLAND 38
How bad is Oakland? I mentioned last week there have been numerous times when it appeared Oakland would finally come to play, and they have yet to perform. That's as sure a sign of a dead team as any. I have no situations that favor either team here but this game is pretty simple. The numbers lean towards the Jets slightly. The Jets have a better offense and defense and throw the ball well, averaging 6.1 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games, while Oakland is allowing 5.5 yps against 5.2 yps over their last five games and allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Jets have allowed 4.6 ypr against 3.9 ypr over their last five games, while Oakland is averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr, so Oakland might be able to run the ball some. But, it would appear the Jets want this game much more than Oakland and that makes this pick easy for me. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 75-41-1 and 2-0 this year. NY JETS 20 OAKLAND 14
ST. LOUIS -7 Baltimore 43
I won't officially be going against the Rams this week but I will still lean against them. The Rams have played better rush defense as of late, allowing just 4.2 ypr against 4.6 ypr but they'll have their hands full this week against Baltimore, who is averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. The Rams still can't run the ball themselves, gaining just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and Baltimore has only allowed 3.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr over the last five games. As bad as the Baltimore passing offense has been this year, averaging just 4.8 yps against 5.9 yps (for the whole season), they have improved over their last five games, averaging 5.8 yps against 6.1 yps and that might sit just fine against a Rams defense that is allowing 6.1 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games. For the Rams, they continue to throw the ball well, gaining 7.9 yps against 6.7 yps over the last five games, but they will face a stiff challenge from Baltimore, who is allowing just 5.2 yps against 5.9 yps. Baltimore's ability to rush the ball qualifies them in a solid fundamental rushing situation, which is 234-161-14 (4-1 TY) and my final numbers are close to this line, which ends up leaning towards Baltimore, when you factor in the positive situation they are in. I would also lean towards the over in this game. ST LOUIS 26 BALTIMORE 21
GREEN BAY -4.5 Philadelphia 43.5
How good did GB look last week? Sharp, quick and just about perfect. Of course, when you are facing the Vikings defense, you sometimes tend to look that way. I pointed out after week one's loss to Minnesota that Green Bay actually played Minnesota pretty well on defense, from a yards per play perspective, but the turnovers killed them and aided Minnesota in scoring in that game. After another loss at Arizona, people were ready to send GB off for the season, but injuries hurt this team badly and the bye came at a perfect time for them. Remember, they led KC by 17 points and injuries to their secondary really hindered their ability to hold on to that lead, and an interception return for a touchdown. There isn't a better, more balanced offense in the league over their last five games than GB. The Pack has averaged 6.3 yppl against 5.3 yppl over the last five games, which is better than Indy (6.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl) and better than Tennessee (6.1 yppl against 5.3 yppl). GB has also averaged 32 points against teams allowing 19 points, over the last five games. Indy has averaged 33 points against 19 points so they are one point better in scoring. But, GB is doing it with both, the run and the pass, averaging 5.8 ypr against 4.7 ypr and 6.8 yps against 5.8 yps. They are giving up large chunks of yards on the ground, allowing 5.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr but the pass defense has been very good, allowing just 6.0 yps against 6.8 yps. But when you consider whom the Packers have just played against, I don't think their rush defense looks so bad. They have just finished playing Chicago (with Thomas and Stewart - who scrambled for a lot of rushing yards), Seattle, Kansas City, St. Louis (who hasn't rushed the ball well this year) and Minnesota. Those teams are some pretty solid rushing teams. And good passing teams too, but they have held them in check, for the most part. They limited Minnesota to 5.5 yps last week and only 5.7 yps in their first game (Minnesota averages 7.6 yps for the season). Philly still isn't throwing the ball well, averaging just 4.7 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games and they haven't run the ball as well, as of late, averaging just 4.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The Philly defense has been just above average over their last five games, allowing 4.0 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.3 yps against 5.7 yps for a total of 4.7 yppl against 4.9 yppl. GB qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 59-25-2 and they would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 132-54-7 if the line is -4 or less. Philly does qualify in a contrary situation, which is 120-54-6 but they don't qualify in the subset of that situation, which makes it just 16-17 without the subset. This game also qualifies in a couple of really good under situations, which are 295-221-11 (9-5 TY) and 144-71-2 (5-1 TY), but my final predicted score is at least 43 points and up to 58 points using one prediction model. That makes it very hard to play the under despite the great situations that apply. Those numbers also favor GB heavily too. I will play GB as a -4 or better favorite and lean towards the under because of the situations that apply, even though my numbers don't support it. GREEN BAY 27 PHILADELPHIA 13
BEST BETS
YTD 24-22-2 +2.40%
4% MINNESOTA/SAN DIEGO OVER 44 This becomes a 3% play if higher than 44
2% SEATTLE/WASHINGTON OVER 40.5
2% CAROLINA +3
2% MIAMI +5
2% JACKSONVILLE +6
2% SAN DIEGO +6
Possible play:
2% GREEN BAY -4 or less
