These are based on matchbook lines since thats pretty much all I'll be using for NFL this year besides bets on Sunday night/Monday morning when the lines get fixed for the most part... Last year I did my picks on this site and did a decent sized writeup and nobody seemed to care too much (thats cool, whatever), but I did go 18-13 and I feel like I'm going to do even better this year now that I've got Matchbook basically evaporating the juice that I'm used to paying. I should have a lot more picks this year as well because of getting lines that I basically think are even at +110-115 rather than -105 or +105 that you would get at most books.... Most of my plays will be between 1-2 units (some .5's and 2.5's thrown in), however, I'd expect majority between 1-2 units... The writeups won't be long but whatever, maybe later in the year if the thread gets some interest I'll add a little more writeup to it. Oak +3 +102 2 units (Wrong team is favored by 3 here, especially with Marshall out) GB -3 +115 2 units (Gonna comeout on fire first game without Favre, checkout Det's first game without BSanders winning SU as 8pt dogs 10 years ago or so...) Arizona -3 +120 1 unit (With Warner starting Zona should move the ball pretty well and SF has the worst offense in the NFL, 8-8 team vs a 3-13 team here to me, also like the +120) TB +3.5 1 unit -102 (Classic case of two teams being pretty = yet the dome team with the passing offense is favored by more than 3....) Wash +3.5 -102 .5 units (Another game that I see no reason for the team to be more than -3, Giants aren't the same team as last year and Washington is gonna be looking to comeout on fire the night the Giants get their rings) I did like Balt some in their home opener vs a mediocre Bengals team (should the Bengals be slight favs over anyone besides Miami, ATL, SF on the road?) but the Ed Reed injury has me laying off as he is the most important guy to the Ravens D vs a passing attack like that. Also liked NYJ some, then they got favre and went from +110 to -120 on the line so forget that..... Liked Det a lot and likely would've been a 2.5 unit play when it was PK all summer then some sharps hit it hard and now it is lined at -3 like it should be so it goes to show that you gotta hit the lines you like when you can....
Week 1 wasn't so good. Hit the GB MNF play, hit Arizona and lost Oak, Wash, TB....Liked Oak a lot and TB/NO was a back and forth game....
YTD Record: 2-3 -.504 units
This week
Indy -1 -108 2 units (Think the Colts should be -3.5 or so here, like their defenses ability to bring Sanders into the box and make Tavaris beat them, also think Peyton will torch Minn's so-so secondary...
SD -1 -103 2 units (Denver got pounded by SD last year by a combined score of 64-6 and now they are PK almost here? See LT running on that weak front just like Oak was doing in the first few quarters and the Chargers defense will limit Cutler and Denver's offense much like they did last year.......Wow as I was typing this foundout Merriman was out for the year, that is really going to hurt SD long-term, however, I still think they are too talented for Denver right now...
Jets -1 -110 1 unit (Hate to do this but Cassel on the road in his first start against a pretty solid defense? While I am optimistic NE has a chance to win this game, to make them less than -3 seems a little too optimistic..
GB -3 -102 2 units (GB is better on both sides of the ball and took it to Detroit twice last year, Detroit is just as bad and Green Bay should handle them. Detroit is looking like the worst team in that division and I think Green Bay is the best. It seems like I'm going to be riding the Packers until they screw me or until the bookies realize losing Favre off an ascending team that was 13-3 last year is something they have overrated...)
Wash PK +105 1 unit (Home opener in Washington, they are a physical team and should be able to run on the Saints. Saints offense is very explosive, however, it was very explosive the last 2 seasons and they still were a pretty average road team. Portis should have a big day here...)
Cincy -1 unit -102 (Admittedly don't feel as confident about this as the other plays, however, I think the Ravens D isn't given enough credit for how good they are and that Cincy offense will get back on track against a Titans team that they torched last year 35-6. Also, Kerry Collins is at QB for the Titans and everyone thinks that is a good thing right now, but once the game starts people will remember why he hasn't started for anybody but the Raiders in 6 years or so)
Balt -4 1 unit +102 (Ravens D looks like the unit of '06 when they were dominating, Texans OL is not very good and I think it is going to be a long day for Schaub)
I know this is a ton of games but I just see a lot of stuff I like early in the year. Also looking at Phi, Cle, Chi, KC...
This thread will probably just serve me for looking back at thought process and record keeping.
YTD Record: 2-3 -.504 units
This week
Indy -1 -108 2 units (Think the Colts should be -3.5 or so here, like their defenses ability to bring Sanders into the box and make Tavaris beat them, also think Peyton will torch Minn's so-so secondary...
SD -1 -103 2 units (Denver got pounded by SD last year by a combined score of 64-6 and now they are PK almost here? See LT running on that weak front just like Oak was doing in the first few quarters and the Chargers defense will limit Cutler and Denver's offense much like they did last year.......Wow as I was typing this foundout Merriman was out for the year, that is really going to hurt SD long-term, however, I still think they are too talented for Denver right now...
Jets -1 -110 1 unit (Hate to do this but Cassel on the road in his first start against a pretty solid defense? While I am optimistic NE has a chance to win this game, to make them less than -3 seems a little too optimistic..
GB -3 -102 2 units (GB is better on both sides of the ball and took it to Detroit twice last year, Detroit is just as bad and Green Bay should handle them. Detroit is looking like the worst team in that division and I think Green Bay is the best. It seems like I'm going to be riding the Packers until they screw me or until the bookies realize losing Favre off an ascending team that was 13-3 last year is something they have overrated...)
Wash PK +105 1 unit (Home opener in Washington, they are a physical team and should be able to run on the Saints. Saints offense is very explosive, however, it was very explosive the last 2 seasons and they still were a pretty average road team. Portis should have a big day here...)
Cincy -1 unit -102 (Admittedly don't feel as confident about this as the other plays, however, I think the Ravens D isn't given enough credit for how good they are and that Cincy offense will get back on track against a Titans team that they torched last year 35-6. Also, Kerry Collins is at QB for the Titans and everyone thinks that is a good thing right now, but once the game starts people will remember why he hasn't started for anybody but the Raiders in 6 years or so)
Balt -4 1 unit +102 (Ravens D looks like the unit of '06 when they were dominating, Texans OL is not very good and I think it is going to be a long day for Schaub)
I know this is a ton of games but I just see a lot of stuff I like early in the year. Also looking at Phi, Cle, Chi, KC...
This thread will probably just serve me for looking back at thought process and record keeping.
Pretty good day sunday going 3-3 +.9 units. I actually talked myself out of Cincy and didn't bet it by gametime, however, it still counts for this...
YTD 5-6 +.4 units
Some early plays for this week...
Car +3 +120 2 units (Car is the better team here and Steve Smith probably has a big day indoors on the fast track vs a weak secondary)
Dolhpins +13 -112 2 units (This is another easy play for me, Pennington has always played the Pats solid in his career. He'll manage the game, dink and dunk and they will keep it close vs a Pats team that looks like it has no problem grinding out 19-16 victories every week)
Indy -5 +104 (Manning started to get on track, he'll handle this Jax team with a weak pass rush and a secondary Reggie Wayne killed twice last year. Gotta go with Indy probably until the bookies start valuing them properly again.)
YTD 5-6 +.4 units
Some early plays for this week...
Car +3 +120 2 units (Car is the better team here and Steve Smith probably has a big day indoors on the fast track vs a weak secondary)
Dolhpins +13 -112 2 units (This is another easy play for me, Pennington has always played the Pats solid in his career. He'll manage the game, dink and dunk and they will keep it close vs a Pats team that looks like it has no problem grinding out 19-16 victories every week)
Indy -5 +104 (Manning started to get on track, he'll handle this Jax team with a weak pass rush and a secondary Reggie Wayne killed twice last year. Gotta go with Indy probably until the bookies start valuing them properly again.)
This week I got...
Cle/Cincy O 44.5 -105 1.5 units (Both these teams played very good defenses the first two weeks and are both better offenses than being given credit for right now)
KC +9.5 1.5 units -104 (Big line here with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Huard is starting and he's a huge upgrade over Thigpen. Denver's D has been very suspect, KC will atleast be competitive in this rivalry game...)
Ravens +5.5 2 units -106 (There is a reason it took the bookies at a lot of places so long to putout this line. Not sure what to make it, however, I think this ravens front 7 is playing way too well right now for Pitts undermanned OL. You've also got the linchpin to Pitt's D Hampton out, McGahee should be able to run the ball well. I don't see how this isn't a close game with the way the Ravens D is playing.....)
Jets -110 moneyline 2 units (Jets are a better team than people think, Az isn't as good as people think. This is a must-win game at home for NYJ after starting off 1-2 and I think they should be atleast -3 in this spot since these two teams are pretty equal team. Az classic passing oriented offense that the bookies/public overrate a little)
GB +105 1.5 units (GB is just a better team here, TB is very due for a bad game from Griese. Granted it will be tough to adjust to Al Harris being out, but Galloway is banged up for TB and they don't really have the options to exploit this. Also, Ryan Grant will start getting going because of the Packers physical OL vs the Buccs tampa 2 defense....
Cle/Cincy O 44.5 -105 1.5 units (Both these teams played very good defenses the first two weeks and are both better offenses than being given credit for right now)
KC +9.5 1.5 units -104 (Big line here with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Huard is starting and he's a huge upgrade over Thigpen. Denver's D has been very suspect, KC will atleast be competitive in this rivalry game...)
Ravens +5.5 2 units -106 (There is a reason it took the bookies at a lot of places so long to putout this line. Not sure what to make it, however, I think this ravens front 7 is playing way too well right now for Pitts undermanned OL. You've also got the linchpin to Pitt's D Hampton out, McGahee should be able to run the ball well. I don't see how this isn't a close game with the way the Ravens D is playing.....)
Jets -110 moneyline 2 units (Jets are a better team than people think, Az isn't as good as people think. This is a must-win game at home for NYJ after starting off 1-2 and I think they should be atleast -3 in this spot since these two teams are pretty equal team. Az classic passing oriented offense that the bookies/public overrate a little)
GB +105 1.5 units (GB is just a better team here, TB is very due for a bad game from Griese. Granted it will be tough to adjust to Al Harris being out, but Galloway is banged up for TB and they don't really have the options to exploit this. Also, Ryan Grant will start getting going because of the Packers physical OL vs the Buccs tampa 2 defense....
Pretty good week going 4-2 for +4.45 units. Got totally screwed with Cincy/Cle and Palmer being out but that is what it is...Rest of it I pegged pretty good...Especially KC and NYJ who both easily won outright....
YTD 10-10 +3.85 units...
This week...
Arizona -1 +103 1.5 units (Az looks like they should be -3 here, Buffalo obviously is not as good as their 4-0 record....Even without Boldin, Arizona should be able to move the ball pretty well. Not to mention they will want to be at home after being on the East coast for 2 weeks...)
Wash +6 +103 2 units (Is it me, or should this game be 3 as welll....A lot of parity in the NFL this year...Wash since their week 1 struggle vs NYG has played very good football. Westbrook being nicked up will be a factor for Phi also...)
Balt +3 -114 2 units (Balt getting 3 at home? I have tehm as about 2pt favs for this game. Their D will showup in a big way at home and this should be a close game. Getting +3 with the home team in a low scoring, physical game is value)
Pitt +4 +105 1.5 units (Not a huge Steelers fan this year but their D handled Garrard in that playoff game last year and Jacksonville's still is struggling to run the ball. Pitts OL is in a state of flux but jacksonville is not known for its pass rush and Ben should make enough plays through the air to keep this one close...Honestly, I hate to keep sounding repetitive but another line that should be 3 is what this looks like...
YTD 10-10 +3.85 units...
This week...
Arizona -1 +103 1.5 units (Az looks like they should be -3 here, Buffalo obviously is not as good as their 4-0 record....Even without Boldin, Arizona should be able to move the ball pretty well. Not to mention they will want to be at home after being on the East coast for 2 weeks...)
Wash +6 +103 2 units (Is it me, or should this game be 3 as welll....A lot of parity in the NFL this year...Wash since their week 1 struggle vs NYG has played very good football. Westbrook being nicked up will be a factor for Phi also...)
Balt +3 -114 2 units (Balt getting 3 at home? I have tehm as about 2pt favs for this game. Their D will showup in a big way at home and this should be a close game. Getting +3 with the home team in a low scoring, physical game is value)
Pitt +4 +105 1.5 units (Not a huge Steelers fan this year but their D handled Garrard in that playoff game last year and Jacksonville's still is struggling to run the ball. Pitts OL is in a state of flux but jacksonville is not known for its pass rush and Ben should make enough plays through the air to keep this one close...Honestly, I hate to keep sounding repetitive but another line that should be 3 is what this looks like...
Adding 1...
Pitt/Jax over 36 +103 2 units (These teams have scored 51 and 61 their last two meetings. Jacksonville secondary is banged up and Pitt should move the ball through the air. I think this line is a reflection that both these teams are run the ball, grind it out teams and that isn't really the case as much as its been in years past...)
Pitt/Jax over 36 +103 2 units (These teams have scored 51 and 61 their last two meetings. Jacksonville secondary is banged up and Pitt should move the ball through the air. I think this line is a reflection that both these teams are run the ball, grind it out teams and that isn't really the case as much as its been in years past...)
