Titans @ Steelers
Play: Titans +6.5
Relative Bet Size: Large
Comment:
There does lie additional inherent risks of betting large in week 1, as you have less information to go on. But the same can be said for the marketplace, which in week one is more prone to be betting on emotions and intangibles than underlying fundamentals.
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Last year, the Titans were vastly underrated by the marketplace. They covered 12 of their 16 games. It is not surprising the market was hesitant to not give them their due credit, as success predicated on a strong (but not flashing defense) and a ground and pound offense lacking a big name quarterback and receiver, often fly under the radar. What should one expect the market to do when you take away this team’s best defensive player and a couple of their receivers and are forced to go up against the defending Super Bowl champions on their home turf? More undervaluation pressure. In reality, these two teams are very similar, while the Titans may be the slightly better team that also has slightly more fundamental advantages in this head to head match up to make the most of their strengths.
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The Titans defense may be slightly worse this year compared to last, but not by much, and they still have one of the better defenses. However, their offense should witness a more material uptick that may fly under that radar due to the lack of “sexiness”, that just may allow them to have the most underrated offense in the league wire to wire. I am also expecting a material downgrade in the Steelers defense. Their front is aging and a lot of their linebackers and secondary’s success was predicated on them. They also had all their players have above average years relative to true worth, and some even outlier years. The Steelers will likely stack the box and force Collins to beat them with his arm. However, that did not work last year when they met, and more than likely will not be terribly effective this year. The Titans offensive line is elite, which should allow the Titans running game to still find success against the stacked box, and also prevent the blitzing schemes the Steelers employ to be as effective as they are used to.
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The Steelers offense is solid, but are prone to struggle early in the season. They also don’t match up terribly well against the Titans, who have success in getting to the quarterback without relying heavily on the blitz, something in which the Steelers defended well last year. The Steelers struggled last year against this defense without Haynseworth. It is an offense whose passing success feeds off the run and visa versa more than most teams. This does not bode well for them when playing against well balanced defenses.
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The market has sent this line up 2 points and has crossed the 6. They also did such without bumping the total, which leads me to believe the secular underrated facets the Titans possessed are not only still there, but are increasing. Based on the derivative numbers I use, homefield advantage in this game is only worth 2.1 points in this game. The market appears to be pricing it above 3.
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Titans @ Steelers
Play: Over 35
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The lines on this game just seem out of whack to me. It appears that the anchoring bias on the perception on both teams profiles last year seem to be weighing down this total a lot. Both teams’ defenses should not be as good as they were last year. The Titans lost their best play in free agency, lost their defensive coordinator, and are battling some serious age concerns at key positions. The Steelers front should also be on the decline, and the teams benefited from individuals having outlier years. Both defenses will also stack the box in order to detour both teams whose offenses rely on the run to rely on their quarterback. This favors the Over. The Titans offense should have more success in this game than expected. Their passing game found flaws in the Steelers defense last year that no other teams could find. They also have a break away running back that can take advantage of the over aggressive propensity of the Steelers, and the offensive line to offset the Steelers strength. The Steelers should also have success on offense. Their offense is underrated and has the depth in regards to receiving options to take advantage of the Titans marginal decrease in productivity when dealing with secondary receivers, tight ends, and running backs relative to the 1 and 2 receivers.
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Both teams have a good chance of surpassing 20 points. With the above predicted passes in this game, I am expecting a faster pace than conventional wisdom would imply when these two teams meet up.
Play: Titans +6.5
Relative Bet Size: Large
Comment:
There does lie additional inherent risks of betting large in week 1, as you have less information to go on. But the same can be said for the marketplace, which in week one is more prone to be betting on emotions and intangibles than underlying fundamentals.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Last year, the Titans were vastly underrated by the marketplace. They covered 12 of their 16 games. It is not surprising the market was hesitant to not give them their due credit, as success predicated on a strong (but not flashing defense) and a ground and pound offense lacking a big name quarterback and receiver, often fly under the radar. What should one expect the market to do when you take away this team’s best defensive player and a couple of their receivers and are forced to go up against the defending Super Bowl champions on their home turf? More undervaluation pressure. In reality, these two teams are very similar, while the Titans may be the slightly better team that also has slightly more fundamental advantages in this head to head match up to make the most of their strengths.
<o
> </o>The Titans defense may be slightly worse this year compared to last, but not by much, and they still have one of the better defenses. However, their offense should witness a more material uptick that may fly under that radar due to the lack of “sexiness”, that just may allow them to have the most underrated offense in the league wire to wire. I am also expecting a material downgrade in the Steelers defense. Their front is aging and a lot of their linebackers and secondary’s success was predicated on them. They also had all their players have above average years relative to true worth, and some even outlier years. The Steelers will likely stack the box and force Collins to beat them with his arm. However, that did not work last year when they met, and more than likely will not be terribly effective this year. The Titans offensive line is elite, which should allow the Titans running game to still find success against the stacked box, and also prevent the blitzing schemes the Steelers employ to be as effective as they are used to.
<o
> </o>The Steelers offense is solid, but are prone to struggle early in the season. They also don’t match up terribly well against the Titans, who have success in getting to the quarterback without relying heavily on the blitz, something in which the Steelers defended well last year. The Steelers struggled last year against this defense without Haynseworth. It is an offense whose passing success feeds off the run and visa versa more than most teams. This does not bode well for them when playing against well balanced defenses.
<o
> </o>The market has sent this line up 2 points and has crossed the 6. They also did such without bumping the total, which leads me to believe the secular underrated facets the Titans possessed are not only still there, but are increasing. Based on the derivative numbers I use, homefield advantage in this game is only worth 2.1 points in this game. The market appears to be pricing it above 3.
<o
> </o>Titans @ Steelers
Play: Over 35
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
The lines on this game just seem out of whack to me. It appears that the anchoring bias on the perception on both teams profiles last year seem to be weighing down this total a lot. Both teams’ defenses should not be as good as they were last year. The Titans lost their best play in free agency, lost their defensive coordinator, and are battling some serious age concerns at key positions. The Steelers front should also be on the decline, and the teams benefited from individuals having outlier years. Both defenses will also stack the box in order to detour both teams whose offenses rely on the run to rely on their quarterback. This favors the Over. The Titans offense should have more success in this game than expected. Their passing game found flaws in the Steelers defense last year that no other teams could find. They also have a break away running back that can take advantage of the over aggressive propensity of the Steelers, and the offensive line to offset the Steelers strength. The Steelers should also have success on offense. Their offense is underrated and has the depth in regards to receiving options to take advantage of the Titans marginal decrease in productivity when dealing with secondary receivers, tight ends, and running backs relative to the 1 and 2 receivers.
<o
> </o>Both teams have a good chance of surpassing 20 points. With the above predicted passes in this game, I am expecting a faster pace than conventional wisdom would imply when these two teams meet up.
). BOL to us, always good to see you posting.
