Sides
Jaguars @ Colts
Play: Jaguars +7
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
I think the Jaguars may fly under the radar during the first quarter of the season as the market tries to figure out what kind of team they are. It looks like they are pricing them a bit skewed to the 2008 team that fell victim to early season injuries and late season minimal effort. I think they should be price equivalent to the solid yet underrated 2007 team that can really give the Colts problems.
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When the key players to their offensive line got injured on opening day, their entire system collapsed. Expect a rebirth of their offense, where Drew will be a force running the ball, which should open up the passing game. So should Garrard finally having an experienced receiver he can rely on. The Colts defense may start out slow this season as they adjust to a scheme that uses a lot less cover 2 and a lot more man coverage. Although this may pay off in the long run, growing pains may be evident at first. The Jaguars passing game feeds off of the play action. Expect Drew’s productivity to improve this year, which should benefit the passing game. Their expected production on offense increases materially against defenses that lack an ideal run defense. In my opinion, the Colts Achilles heal this year will once again be their run defense. Expect the Jaguars to grind out drives that allows them to keep this game close and make it hard for the Colts to win by two possessions.
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I think the Colts will once again have an elite offense. However, this is a finesse timing offense that is prone to slow starts. They are also prone to struggle against physical defenses, which the Jaguars possess and defenses that are very familiar with them. The Jaguars are also expected to rely more on the 3-4 this year, which has given Manning problems in the past. Last year the Jaguars had a poor defense. The year’s prior, very good ones. Last year they also battled injuries on the defensive side and had to deal with being backed by an offense that could not prolong drives. They have the talent to return to a top shelf defense, and have good spot to make a case against a Colts offense that should peak later in the season.
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In my opinion, the Jaguars will keep this game closer than expected, and a possible first week upset is in the cards. The market will figure out how good this team really is sooner or later, but now they appear a bit too pessimistic.
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Lions @ Saints
Play: Lions +13.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
Not surprised here that the market is going to implement a wait and see approach on a team that went winless last year and are now going with a rookie quarterback to open up the season. In my opinion, they have a lot of upward mobility off of their current valuation. The Saints have the propensity to be backed with a premium early in the season as the market focuses on all of their offensive talent and seem to forget how much of a liability their defense is. This is a defense in which I think will perform worse than last year, and a defense that will make it hard for the Saints to have blowouts like this spread is suggesting.
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With the expected inability of the Saints front to stop the run and expected improved productivity on the Lions offensive line, expect the Lions to be effective enough on the ground to take the needed pressure off of <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Stafford</st1lace> early on. The Saints have struggled in past years pressuring the quarterback. This bodes well for <st1lace>Stafford</st1lace> as well, as he showed a propensity for error in the preseason. Although the Saints have a chance to improve in getting to the quarterback this year with the addition of Williams’ blitzing schemes, this may take a while, as the Saints lack the ideal personnel and may take some growing pains learning the complex system. The expected improved offense out of the Lions and downgrade on the Saints defense should provide the Lions with some scoring opportunities and increases chance of leaving their defense off of the field.
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The Saints have a solid offense, but I am not pricing them nearly as good as the market appears to be pricing them, nor as good as they produced last year. Their running game leaves a lot to be desired. This holds especially true this week with the injury to Thomas. This should allow the Lions improved defense to focus more on the passing game. The Lions should also benefit from two solid defensive minds in Cunningham and Schwartz. The lack of running game should increase the tempo, give the Lions more chances for a potential backdoor cover, and also make it hard for the Saints to sit on a lead and run out the clock.
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While the market uses the wait and see approach on the Lions, I will back them out of the gate against a team prone to overvalued tendencies.
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Bucs @ Cowboys
Play: Bucs +6
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
Last year I was consistent with my notion that the Cowboys were frauds and the Bucs provided value in backing them as their boring style was disliked by the marketplace. This year I am going to once again say that the Cowboys are in for a disappointing season that will more than likely keep them out of the playoffs, while the Bucs will also struggle. However, the difference here is that the market is expecting good things from the Cowboys and not expecting much from the Bucs.
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The Cowboys defense is overrated and should be able to be exploited with both the running game and passing game. This should allow an anemic Bucs offense who will more than likely be dominated in a lot of games this season, to find some success on Sunday. The Bucs are heavily dependent on the running game and play action pass. They have three respectable running backs that can stay fresh and grind out yards while wearing down the Cowboys defense. In years past, opponents were able to constantly stack the box with 8 or 9 defenders as they lacked fear on the deep ball due to Garcia’s lack of arm strength. Leftwich provides the Bucs this added dimension, which should make it difficult for the Cowboys to implement this strategy.
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The Cowboys offense is respected by the marketplace. Although they may actually benefit from the departure of Owens, this offense still is not terribly consistent, prone to mistakes, and certainly not as good as the market is giving them credit. The Bucs should be able to defend the pass well this year. The Cowboys passing game should also once again nothing more than mediocrity this year. With the propensity of error from Romo, the Bucs structural shift out of the Cover 2 and into more blitzing schemes has a chance to pay immediate dividends. The Cowboys best success on offense on Sunday should be found on the ground. But their ground game eats up clock, which is not ideal for a sizable favorite.
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Homefield advantage is magnified in this game. My durative numbers suggest homefield advantage is worth 5.1 points.
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The market is stubborn with the Cowboys. Oddsmakers opened them at an inflated price with a 3 point road favorite offering. Apparently that was not good enough, as they market moved them off the key and added another 3 points to their asking price.
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Bears @ Packers
Play: Bears +4
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
This is not a play against the Packers. I think they may be a sleeper team. This is a play on the Bears, who may be this year’s biggest sleeper team. Last year, before the season, I had the Ravens and Dolphins as my sleeper teams. This year, I would not be surprised if the Bears end up being the best team in the NFC.
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I think the Bears can be a dangerous offensive team. Cutler has been highly touted, but a lot of the publicity has been negative, and the market never seems to want to give him a lot of respect. The players around him can really benefit from his presence. The Bears offensive line is very solid. This should allow Cutler to have a lot of time in the pocket and attack the second and third level of the field where he is most dangerous. I am somewhat bearish on the Packers defense, a defense that does not match up terribly well against the Bears. Last year Forte was a force despite having to run against stacked boxes. With Cutler behind center, the Packers will not have the luxury of stacking the box. This does not bode well for their chances, as they may end up having one of the worst run defenses in football this season. A solid expected running game should open things up for Cutler. Hester should benefit with having Cutler, as his speed down the field can finally be utilized by being backed by a strong arm. So should Oslon and Forte as receiving options, as Cutler makes the most of his running backs and tight ends. The Packers pass defense matches up better against passing games that heavily depend on the 1 and 2 receivers. This is not the case with the Bears.
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I like the Bears defense this year much more than years past. Years past I called this unit overrated. After a couple years of not performing up to market expectations, the market has finally given up on them. However, they battled a lot of key injuries last year. They have a very solid defensive core that is familiar with each other and know their roles. The Packers offense is dependent on timing in the passing game. The Bears defense struggles against timing routes. At first blush this can be a problem. However, being the first game of the season, timing may be off.
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Rams @ Seahawks
Play: Rams +8.5
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
The Rams are another sleeper team of mine. Call me crazy, but they actually have an outside chance to win their division. The team cleaned house in the off season, improved their offensive line, and lost a lot of games due to injury last year, had abnormally high struggles in the red zone, bad luck turnovers, and had an upward trending productivity to close out the season. This is a recipe for a team to turn some heads the following season.
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The Rams offense is going to be decent this year. They have the quarterback and running back to be such, and now the offensive line to allow such. The Seahawks have a decent defense, but a defense that really doesn’t have a dominant facet to shutdown an opponents running game or passing game. Expect <st1:City><st1lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> to be effective enough early to take pressure off of Bulger and prevent a solid blitzing defense to take advantage of an offensive line that is young.
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The Rams defense may actually be above average. It is also a unit that should benefit from an expected uptick on offense. The Seahawks passing game is highly dependent on timing and rhythm. Thus they are prone to a slow start, as timing usually lags early on, and Hasselback still needs to gain chemistry with his new number 1. If the Seahawks struggle in the air, they may struggle moving the ball. They really lack a breakout runner to carry a potential passing inefficiency.
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Jets @ Texans
Play: Jets +4.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
Every year, the Texans are the marketplaces sleeper team. Every year, the slightly underperform expectations and become labeled next years team. This year appears to be no different as they once again appear to be getting a bit too much respect. The inflation may also be coming from the bearish sentiment of the Jets as the market takes a wait and see approach on Sanchez.
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Sanchez is a mature quarterback for being a rookie. He also finished out the preseason strong and handled the offense with care. Ideally with a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road, you want to be backed by a running game. Although the Jets running game is nothing to write home about, they are up against what I deem will be one of the worst run defenses in the league. Expect the running game to be effective enough to take the pressure off of Sanchez and prevent him from losing the game.
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The Texans offense has some talent, talent that should be getting better. However, I am not sure they perform better than they did last season, nor do I see a fundamental match up they should consistently have success doing tomorrow against a decent Jets defense. Without Walters, the Jets will have the luxury of constantly doubling Johnson. Revis is one of the most underrated corners in the league that should prevent Johnson from breaking out with constant help.
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Vikings @ Browns
Play: Vikings -3.5
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
The Vikings are the only favorite that I see coming with value on the Week 1 board. This is not because I think their value has materially increased with Favre, rather in spite of him. I also don’t think the Browns did much in the offseason to improve.
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One thing that Favre might add is the respect that will prevent teams from stacking 8 and 9 to stop Petterson on every play. The Browns run defense is poor enough to be overmatched without doing such. Petterson being a good B and C gap runner should allow the Vikings to avoid the Browns strength on their run defense. Expect the Vikings to come out making a statement that this is not Favre’s offense. He will be in a complimentary role, where he should find some success. The Browns lack of pass rush should prevent him from making mistakes he is prone to making.
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The Browns offense never performs as well as they appear on paper. Magini showed last year that the Jets running game was nothing more than a”have to’ despite being effective. Expect him to quickly abandon the run with the Browns as well. The Vikings run defense simply outclasses this running game, which should force the Browns into a one dimensional passing game early. The Vikings pass defense improved a lot last year, and should continue to be one of the better ones in the league. They also feed off one dimensional passing attacks.
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Dolphins @ Falcons
Play: Dolphins +4
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
Last year, I labeled the Dolphins a sleeper team, and backed it up by backing them almost every week. Is it a surprise that I am backing them right off the bat this season? Yes. They are no longer a sleeper team, and probably will perform worse than what the market expects out of them. However, this is a pure play against a Falcons team that I feel should witness material regression off of last year. Last year, everything came together. This year, I am not expecting a perfect storm.
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Ryan really benefits from an overachieving line and a Turner. I am pricing in regression to the former, and a down tick to Turner who may break down this year after last years workload. The passing game will depreciate because of such. The Dolphins defense is very beatable this year, however, I just don’t think this years Faclons will be able to exploit most of their deficiencies.
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One facet I do like from the Dolphins this year is their offense. I am expecting Brown to have a really solid year on the ground. He should come out of the gates fast after looking good in training camp and getting to face one of the more anemic run defenses in the league. Pennigtons feeds off the supplementary role, a role he should be able to play under this game. Expect a highly productive passing game against this Falcons team who will be focused on stopping the run, and possibly having the worst starting corner tandem in the league.
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Redskins @ Giants
Play: Redskins +6.5
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
The Redskins underachieved last year and got progressively worse down the stretch. However, they have the talent to turn things around quickly and did enough in the offseason to fill up some leaks. The Giants may be a solid, well rounded team, but the market appears to be giving them credit for such.
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This is not necessarily a good match up for the Giants. They have an offense that feeds off of their bruising power running game. The addition of Haynesworth to an already decent run defense should make it hard for the Giants to implement such a strategy. I am not sure if the Giants have enough weapons in the receiving corps to compensate for a decrease in productivity in the ground game.
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I like the Redskins offense with a fresh Portis. The Giants run defense can be beaten. The Giants strength on defense comes from their opposing ends. The Redskins tackles are good enough to offset this strength. <st1:City><st1lace>Campbell</st1lace></st1:City> works best as a game manager, a role he should be able to play under if the Redskins have the success I am expecting them to have on the ground.
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Homefield advantage- not so much. The numbers I use should homefield advantage is worthless in this game, something rare, and a facet that is creating most almost all of the value.
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Totals
Dolphins @ Falcons
Play: Over 43.5
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
Both defenses are much worse than the market thinks. Both offenses are not explosive but should benefit from their opponents deficiencies on defense. The Dolphins passing game should be highly effective and can benefit from the stacked box and suspect corners on the Falcons. Their offense is underrated, well balanced, and highly efficient. This should lead to a lot of drives they finish with points.
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One reason why I am not bullish on the Dolphins this year is because their defense has too many holes and simply is one of the more anemic ones in the league. When you think of the Falcons offense you think of a ground and pound offense. However, expect more reliance on their passing game, as Ryan has matured from last season, while the Falcons will try to conserve Turner more this season after his workload last year. The addition of Gonzalez should also make the Falcons harder to defend, especially in the red zone. Although I am expecting a slight downtick on the Falcons offense this year, I am expecting a material uptick in variance, which favors the Over
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Both defenses should make have a tough time keeping their opponents under 20. This should be one of the higher scoring games of the week.
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Lions @ Saints
Play: Over 48.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
This game is being priced as the highest scoring game, and it will more than likely end up being the highest scoring game. Without Pierre Thomas, the pass happy offense the Saints possess will be that much more dependent on the passing game, and will replace Thomas’s runs with short passes to Bush. I am also expecting a high pace out of the Saints offense to keep the Lions off balance, which can hurt their chances as they are learning a new, more aggressive system. If the Saints get up early, they will not sit on the lead and grind out the clock. They will continue to aggressively try to score.
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I like the Lions chances on offense despite this being <st1lace>Stafford</st1lace>’s first start. The Saints defense is very anemic against both the run and the pass, and the Lions have a lot of big play players to take advantage of such and score on quick drives. This is a high variance offense that should also be prone to turnovers and three and outs that set their opponents up with good field position
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Bears @ Packers
Play: Under 46.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
Not sure why the market is expecting a shootout here. Granted this game provides two of the stronger armed quarterbacks and big play receivers. But the Bears defense is no slouch, and in my opinion have the advantage in this game defending the run and the pass. The Packers passing game should peak later in the season, and may struggler in this game. Expect them be more dependent on the short passes, as the Bears defense is designed to prevent the big play. The Packer running game should struggle to find success, but the Packers will be committed to the run throughout, as they do not want to turn this game into a shootout.
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The Bears offense may end up being very solid this year, but may also have some growing pains. Catching Cutler is a much different animal than catching Orton. This holds especially true for the Bears receivers who are not known for their hands. The Packers weakness on defense is mainly their run defense. Expect the Bears to be more than willing to attack the Packers on the ground as they allow Cutler to get comfortable with his new team.
Jaguars @ Colts
Play: Jaguars +7
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
I think the Jaguars may fly under the radar during the first quarter of the season as the market tries to figure out what kind of team they are. It looks like they are pricing them a bit skewed to the 2008 team that fell victim to early season injuries and late season minimal effort. I think they should be price equivalent to the solid yet underrated 2007 team that can really give the Colts problems.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>When the key players to their offensive line got injured on opening day, their entire system collapsed. Expect a rebirth of their offense, where Drew will be a force running the ball, which should open up the passing game. So should Garrard finally having an experienced receiver he can rely on. The Colts defense may start out slow this season as they adjust to a scheme that uses a lot less cover 2 and a lot more man coverage. Although this may pay off in the long run, growing pains may be evident at first. The Jaguars passing game feeds off of the play action. Expect Drew’s productivity to improve this year, which should benefit the passing game. Their expected production on offense increases materially against defenses that lack an ideal run defense. In my opinion, the Colts Achilles heal this year will once again be their run defense. Expect the Jaguars to grind out drives that allows them to keep this game close and make it hard for the Colts to win by two possessions.
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> </o>I think the Colts will once again have an elite offense. However, this is a finesse timing offense that is prone to slow starts. They are also prone to struggle against physical defenses, which the Jaguars possess and defenses that are very familiar with them. The Jaguars are also expected to rely more on the 3-4 this year, which has given Manning problems in the past. Last year the Jaguars had a poor defense. The year’s prior, very good ones. Last year they also battled injuries on the defensive side and had to deal with being backed by an offense that could not prolong drives. They have the talent to return to a top shelf defense, and have good spot to make a case against a Colts offense that should peak later in the season.
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> </o>In my opinion, the Jaguars will keep this game closer than expected, and a possible first week upset is in the cards. The market will figure out how good this team really is sooner or later, but now they appear a bit too pessimistic.
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> </o>Lions @ Saints
Play: Lions +13.5
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
Not surprised here that the market is going to implement a wait and see approach on a team that went winless last year and are now going with a rookie quarterback to open up the season. In my opinion, they have a lot of upward mobility off of their current valuation. The Saints have the propensity to be backed with a premium early in the season as the market focuses on all of their offensive talent and seem to forget how much of a liability their defense is. This is a defense in which I think will perform worse than last year, and a defense that will make it hard for the Saints to have blowouts like this spread is suggesting.
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> </o>With the expected inability of the Saints front to stop the run and expected improved productivity on the Lions offensive line, expect the Lions to be effective enough on the ground to take the needed pressure off of <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace>Stafford</st1lace> early on. The Saints have struggled in past years pressuring the quarterback. This bodes well for <st1lace>Stafford</st1lace> as well, as he showed a propensity for error in the preseason. Although the Saints have a chance to improve in getting to the quarterback this year with the addition of Williams’ blitzing schemes, this may take a while, as the Saints lack the ideal personnel and may take some growing pains learning the complex system. The expected improved offense out of the Lions and downgrade on the Saints defense should provide the Lions with some scoring opportunities and increases chance of leaving their defense off of the field.<o
> </o>The Saints have a solid offense, but I am not pricing them nearly as good as the market appears to be pricing them, nor as good as they produced last year. Their running game leaves a lot to be desired. This holds especially true this week with the injury to Thomas. This should allow the Lions improved defense to focus more on the passing game. The Lions should also benefit from two solid defensive minds in Cunningham and Schwartz. The lack of running game should increase the tempo, give the Lions more chances for a potential backdoor cover, and also make it hard for the Saints to sit on a lead and run out the clock.
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> </o>While the market uses the wait and see approach on the Lions, I will back them out of the gate against a team prone to overvalued tendencies.
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> </o>Bucs @ Cowboys
Play: Bucs +6
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
Last year I was consistent with my notion that the Cowboys were frauds and the Bucs provided value in backing them as their boring style was disliked by the marketplace. This year I am going to once again say that the Cowboys are in for a disappointing season that will more than likely keep them out of the playoffs, while the Bucs will also struggle. However, the difference here is that the market is expecting good things from the Cowboys and not expecting much from the Bucs.
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> </o>The Cowboys defense is overrated and should be able to be exploited with both the running game and passing game. This should allow an anemic Bucs offense who will more than likely be dominated in a lot of games this season, to find some success on Sunday. The Bucs are heavily dependent on the running game and play action pass. They have three respectable running backs that can stay fresh and grind out yards while wearing down the Cowboys defense. In years past, opponents were able to constantly stack the box with 8 or 9 defenders as they lacked fear on the deep ball due to Garcia’s lack of arm strength. Leftwich provides the Bucs this added dimension, which should make it difficult for the Cowboys to implement this strategy.
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> </o>The Cowboys offense is respected by the marketplace. Although they may actually benefit from the departure of Owens, this offense still is not terribly consistent, prone to mistakes, and certainly not as good as the market is giving them credit. The Bucs should be able to defend the pass well this year. The Cowboys passing game should also once again nothing more than mediocrity this year. With the propensity of error from Romo, the Bucs structural shift out of the Cover 2 and into more blitzing schemes has a chance to pay immediate dividends. The Cowboys best success on offense on Sunday should be found on the ground. But their ground game eats up clock, which is not ideal for a sizable favorite.
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> </o>Homefield advantage is magnified in this game. My durative numbers suggest homefield advantage is worth 5.1 points.
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> </o>The market is stubborn with the Cowboys. Oddsmakers opened them at an inflated price with a 3 point road favorite offering. Apparently that was not good enough, as they market moved them off the key and added another 3 points to their asking price.
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> </o>Bears @ Packers
Play: Bears +4
Relative Strength: Large
Comment:
This is not a play against the Packers. I think they may be a sleeper team. This is a play on the Bears, who may be this year’s biggest sleeper team. Last year, before the season, I had the Ravens and Dolphins as my sleeper teams. This year, I would not be surprised if the Bears end up being the best team in the NFC.
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> </o>I think the Bears can be a dangerous offensive team. Cutler has been highly touted, but a lot of the publicity has been negative, and the market never seems to want to give him a lot of respect. The players around him can really benefit from his presence. The Bears offensive line is very solid. This should allow Cutler to have a lot of time in the pocket and attack the second and third level of the field where he is most dangerous. I am somewhat bearish on the Packers defense, a defense that does not match up terribly well against the Bears. Last year Forte was a force despite having to run against stacked boxes. With Cutler behind center, the Packers will not have the luxury of stacking the box. This does not bode well for their chances, as they may end up having one of the worst run defenses in football this season. A solid expected running game should open things up for Cutler. Hester should benefit with having Cutler, as his speed down the field can finally be utilized by being backed by a strong arm. So should Oslon and Forte as receiving options, as Cutler makes the most of his running backs and tight ends. The Packers pass defense matches up better against passing games that heavily depend on the 1 and 2 receivers. This is not the case with the Bears.
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> </o>I like the Bears defense this year much more than years past. Years past I called this unit overrated. After a couple years of not performing up to market expectations, the market has finally given up on them. However, they battled a lot of key injuries last year. They have a very solid defensive core that is familiar with each other and know their roles. The Packers offense is dependent on timing in the passing game. The Bears defense struggles against timing routes. At first blush this can be a problem. However, being the first game of the season, timing may be off.
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> </o>Rams @ Seahawks
Play: Rams +8.5
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
The Rams are another sleeper team of mine. Call me crazy, but they actually have an outside chance to win their division. The team cleaned house in the off season, improved their offensive line, and lost a lot of games due to injury last year, had abnormally high struggles in the red zone, bad luck turnovers, and had an upward trending productivity to close out the season. This is a recipe for a team to turn some heads the following season.
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> </o>The Rams offense is going to be decent this year. They have the quarterback and running back to be such, and now the offensive line to allow such. The Seahawks have a decent defense, but a defense that really doesn’t have a dominant facet to shutdown an opponents running game or passing game. Expect <st1:City><st1
lace>Jackson</st1lace></st1:City> to be effective enough early to take pressure off of Bulger and prevent a solid blitzing defense to take advantage of an offensive line that is young.<o
> </o>The Rams defense may actually be above average. It is also a unit that should benefit from an expected uptick on offense. The Seahawks passing game is highly dependent on timing and rhythm. Thus they are prone to a slow start, as timing usually lags early on, and Hasselback still needs to gain chemistry with his new number 1. If the Seahawks struggle in the air, they may struggle moving the ball. They really lack a breakout runner to carry a potential passing inefficiency.
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> </o>Jets @ Texans
Play: Jets +4.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
Every year, the Texans are the marketplaces sleeper team. Every year, the slightly underperform expectations and become labeled next years team. This year appears to be no different as they once again appear to be getting a bit too much respect. The inflation may also be coming from the bearish sentiment of the Jets as the market takes a wait and see approach on Sanchez.
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> </o>Sanchez is a mature quarterback for being a rookie. He also finished out the preseason strong and handled the offense with care. Ideally with a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road, you want to be backed by a running game. Although the Jets running game is nothing to write home about, they are up against what I deem will be one of the worst run defenses in the league. Expect the running game to be effective enough to take the pressure off of Sanchez and prevent him from losing the game.
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> </o>The Texans offense has some talent, talent that should be getting better. However, I am not sure they perform better than they did last season, nor do I see a fundamental match up they should consistently have success doing tomorrow against a decent Jets defense. Without Walters, the Jets will have the luxury of constantly doubling Johnson. Revis is one of the most underrated corners in the league that should prevent Johnson from breaking out with constant help.
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> </o>Vikings @ Browns
Play: Vikings -3.5
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
The Vikings are the only favorite that I see coming with value on the Week 1 board. This is not because I think their value has materially increased with Favre, rather in spite of him. I also don’t think the Browns did much in the offseason to improve.
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> </o>One thing that Favre might add is the respect that will prevent teams from stacking 8 and 9 to stop Petterson on every play. The Browns run defense is poor enough to be overmatched without doing such. Petterson being a good B and C gap runner should allow the Vikings to avoid the Browns strength on their run defense. Expect the Vikings to come out making a statement that this is not Favre’s offense. He will be in a complimentary role, where he should find some success. The Browns lack of pass rush should prevent him from making mistakes he is prone to making.
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> </o>The Browns offense never performs as well as they appear on paper. Magini showed last year that the Jets running game was nothing more than a”have to’ despite being effective. Expect him to quickly abandon the run with the Browns as well. The Vikings run defense simply outclasses this running game, which should force the Browns into a one dimensional passing game early. The Vikings pass defense improved a lot last year, and should continue to be one of the better ones in the league. They also feed off one dimensional passing attacks.
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> </o>Dolphins @ Falcons
Play: Dolphins +4
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
Last year, I labeled the Dolphins a sleeper team, and backed it up by backing them almost every week. Is it a surprise that I am backing them right off the bat this season? Yes. They are no longer a sleeper team, and probably will perform worse than what the market expects out of them. However, this is a pure play against a Falcons team that I feel should witness material regression off of last year. Last year, everything came together. This year, I am not expecting a perfect storm.
<o
> </o>Ryan really benefits from an overachieving line and a Turner. I am pricing in regression to the former, and a down tick to Turner who may break down this year after last years workload. The passing game will depreciate because of such. The Dolphins defense is very beatable this year, however, I just don’t think this years Faclons will be able to exploit most of their deficiencies.
<o
> </o>One facet I do like from the Dolphins this year is their offense. I am expecting Brown to have a really solid year on the ground. He should come out of the gates fast after looking good in training camp and getting to face one of the more anemic run defenses in the league. Pennigtons feeds off the supplementary role, a role he should be able to play under this game. Expect a highly productive passing game against this Falcons team who will be focused on stopping the run, and possibly having the worst starting corner tandem in the league.
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> </o><o
> </o>Redskins @ Giants
Play: Redskins +6.5
Relative Strength: Small
Comment:
The Redskins underachieved last year and got progressively worse down the stretch. However, they have the talent to turn things around quickly and did enough in the offseason to fill up some leaks. The Giants may be a solid, well rounded team, but the market appears to be giving them credit for such.
<o
> </o>This is not necessarily a good match up for the Giants. They have an offense that feeds off of their bruising power running game. The addition of Haynesworth to an already decent run defense should make it hard for the Giants to implement such a strategy. I am not sure if the Giants have enough weapons in the receiving corps to compensate for a decrease in productivity in the ground game.
<o
> </o>I like the Redskins offense with a fresh Portis. The Giants run defense can be beaten. The Giants strength on defense comes from their opposing ends. The Redskins tackles are good enough to offset this strength. <st1:City><st1
lace>Campbell</st1lace></st1:City> works best as a game manager, a role he should be able to play under if the Redskins have the success I am expecting them to have on the ground.<o
> </o>Homefield advantage- not so much. The numbers I use should homefield advantage is worthless in this game, something rare, and a facet that is creating most almost all of the value.
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> </o><o
> </o><o
> </o>Totals
Dolphins @ Falcons
Play: Over 43.5
Relative Strength: Upper Medium
Comment:
Both defenses are much worse than the market thinks. Both offenses are not explosive but should benefit from their opponents deficiencies on defense. The Dolphins passing game should be highly effective and can benefit from the stacked box and suspect corners on the Falcons. Their offense is underrated, well balanced, and highly efficient. This should lead to a lot of drives they finish with points.
<o
> </o>One reason why I am not bullish on the Dolphins this year is because their defense has too many holes and simply is one of the more anemic ones in the league. When you think of the Falcons offense you think of a ground and pound offense. However, expect more reliance on their passing game, as Ryan has matured from last season, while the Falcons will try to conserve Turner more this season after his workload last year. The addition of Gonzalez should also make the Falcons harder to defend, especially in the red zone. Although I am expecting a slight downtick on the Falcons offense this year, I am expecting a material uptick in variance, which favors the Over
<o
> </o>Both defenses should make have a tough time keeping their opponents under 20. This should be one of the higher scoring games of the week.
<o
> </o>Lions @ Saints
Play: Over 48.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
This game is being priced as the highest scoring game, and it will more than likely end up being the highest scoring game. Without Pierre Thomas, the pass happy offense the Saints possess will be that much more dependent on the passing game, and will replace Thomas’s runs with short passes to Bush. I am also expecting a high pace out of the Saints offense to keep the Lions off balance, which can hurt their chances as they are learning a new, more aggressive system. If the Saints get up early, they will not sit on the lead and grind out the clock. They will continue to aggressively try to score.
<o
> </o>I like the Lions chances on offense despite this being <st1
lace>Stafford</st1lace>’s first start. The Saints defense is very anemic against both the run and the pass, and the Lions have a lot of big play players to take advantage of such and score on quick drives. This is a high variance offense that should also be prone to turnovers and three and outs that set their opponents up with good field position<o
> </o><o
> </o>Bears @ Packers
Play: Under 46.5
Relative Strength: Medium
Comment:
Not sure why the market is expecting a shootout here. Granted this game provides two of the stronger armed quarterbacks and big play receivers. But the Bears defense is no slouch, and in my opinion have the advantage in this game defending the run and the pass. The Packers passing game should peak later in the season, and may struggler in this game. Expect them be more dependent on the short passes, as the Bears defense is designed to prevent the big play. The Packer running game should struggle to find success, but the Packers will be committed to the run throughout, as they do not want to turn this game into a shootout.
<o
> </o>The Bears offense may end up being very solid this year, but may also have some growing pains. Catching Cutler is a much different animal than catching Orton. This holds especially true for the Bears receivers who are not known for their hands. The Packers weakness on defense is mainly their run defense. Expect the Bears to be more than willing to attack the Packers on the ground as they allow Cutler to get comfortable with his new team.
