NFL Week 1 Leans

[McCrazy]

Looking for opinions. This is where I'm at so far, haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet, too early. Note that these are leans, not plays.

Leans:

Ravens -10

- I prefered them at -9 where it opened, but KC is a mess right now, having just fired their OF Coordinator, Cassell hurt and probably out for week 1 at least. The Ravens DEF is not what they once were, but they are still good and should have no problem against the Chiefs. Ravens OF is determined to open things up and get the passing game going more, so this would be a good spot to do this.

My prediction: KC 7 - BALT 27


Giants -6.5

I've seen some people on the Redskins, but I just don't understand why. Campbell played well last week, but was poor in the first 2 weeks of preseason. Last year, the Giants handled Washington, holding the Redskins to only 2 TDs in 2 games. They are 7-3 ATS vs Redskins in their last 10 regular season games. Yes, the Giants passing game needs some work now that Burress and Toomer are gone, but the running game is still there. But for me, the key to this game is the Giants DL vs Redskins OL and Campbell.

My prediction: WASH 10, NY 24

Panthers +1

Panther's were 8-0 SU at home last year, 5-2-1 ATS. And they were favoured in every game. The Eagles were inconsistent until a late run helped them make the playoffs. Vick isn't playing as he's suspended, but I still think he's going to be a huge distraction for the Eagles every game on the road this year. I'd like to see the line move some more (opened at -1 for Panthers), but I like this home dog right now.

My prediction: Eagles 21, Carolina 24

Othe leans:

Titans +5
Lions/Saints Over 48.5
Packers/Bears Over 44.5

What do you guys think?

 

[McCrazy]

I still like the Giants -6.5, Panthers +1 (looks like this line will move again ni my favor), not too sure about the Ravens now that they are at -13.

Titans up to +6, if they hit 6.5 or 7 I'll play it. Still like Lions/Saints Over 48.5, but I'm dumping the Packers/Bears over.

Looking hard at some other games too. Any opinions/suggestions?

 

[Mr.CantstopWontstop]

i like stafford putting up some pts against a scrub NO offense. but they did play late last year and went under by 1 1/2 pts in an NO romp. if det cant score, look for more of sweating this over.

 

[Mr.CantstopWontstop]

i meant New orleans defense

 

[McCrazy]

i like stafford putting up some pts against a scrub NO offense. but they did play late last year and went under by 1 1/2 pts in an NO romp. if det cant score, look for more of sweating this over.

I'm predicting 40+ for NO and at least 14 to 21 for Detroit. But again, I haven't pulled the trigger on any of these game. I'm definitely taking into account that Stafford is a rookie in his first ever NFL game, which could cause a problem.

Thanks for the opinion, always enjoy hearing what others are thinking.

 

[blueapple]

Info on Saints/Lions game

DETROIT (+13) @ SAINTS (O/U 49.5)
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New Orleans's last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Orleans's last 13 games at home
Starting Saints DE's Will Smith and Charles Grant possible susp. for game for drug use

 

[gabbana]

plays look good....like titans and that over in packers game.

 

[McCrazy]

1st official play of NFL 2009 Regular Season!

I plan on being much more disciplined this year in selecting my plays in the regular NFL seaon then I was in the pre-season or even last year NFL regular season, where I had 73 plays (posted, 41-32 record) from Week 11 to Week 16. That's approximately 12 plays per week. I plan on keeping it around 5-6 plays per week, although I may play less or more depending on the situations.

That being said, I have my first official play for the NFL regular season tonight.

Plays:

Titans +6

As mentionned above, I expect a low scoring game with a lot of running the ball, which will grind the clock out. Neither team has a particularly explosive offense, although there will be enough points scored to challenge to over/under of 35, which is why I'm staying away. The Titans might not be as strong as last year, but they haven't regressed as much as some people have been saying. They might not win this game, but they keep it close.

BOL :toast:

NFL Regular Season YTD = 0-0

 

[McCrazy]

Titants have moved to +6.5. If It hits +7 I might add a unit. All my plays are 1 unit unless otherwise specified.

 

[McCrazy]

1st play = winner!!!

Plays:

Titans +6 @)

NFL YTD = 1 - 0

More plays up for Sunday soon.

 

[cashit]

what's ur take on the minn game? lean towards minn

 

[McCrazy]

what's ur take on the minn game? lean towards minn

I'm staying away from it. the public is all over the Vikings and at first glance it makes sense, but when I really look at it, I think the -4 is a bit of a trap. Favre has only been there since halfway through preaseason and I just don't think he'll be in synch yet. This will hurt Minny a bit, or even a lot if he throws a couple of classic Favre INTs. Quinn is going to be pumped to finally get a start for the Browns in the home opener (he is pretty obvious the starter IMO), plus Cleveland is not the easiest place to play.

the Vikings probably win, but it might come down to a FG, so for that reason, I'm avoiding it. It just see better options out there that I'm looking at.

 

[cashit]

thanks....will watch line etc >>> possible play over..glty

 

[Maniax]

i really like all the plays listed with the exception of the redskin game. best of luck this year!

 

[McCrazy]

1 play added so far

Plays for Week 1:

Titans +6 - WIN
NY Giants -6.5

Not sure how many more I'll have, probably 2 to 4 more max.

YTD = 1-0

 

[FZA]

im all over the gmen

 

[McCrazy]

im all over the gmen

BOL to you buddy! Let's get some cash tomorrow!@)

 

[Johnnyok]

Dallas should beat Tampa by at least a touchdown.

 

[McCrazy]

Dallas should beat Tampa by at least a touchdown.

Thanks for the info that has nothing to do with any games discussed in my thread hno:

 

[McCrazy]

More plays added

Plays for Week 1:

Titans +6 - WIN
NY Giants -6.5
Ravens -13
Panthers +1
Jets/texans U 44.5
Colts -6.5
Lions/Saints O 49.5

Only late game so far is the Giants. I may have a few more depending on how the day looks when the early games are coming to an end, but I've already got more on my card then I had expected.