Nfl week 1 early chatter

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my calculated line using Lindy's PR is San francisco-3 1/2
Slight edge to the 49ers but not a lot
 

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my calculated line using Lindy's PR is San francisco-3 1/2
Slight edge to the 49ers but not a lot

That rating was created around May 2020. A lot has changed since then. And it doesn't account i.e. the (questionable) injuries on 49ers side. So how far is this line accurate at this point?
 

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That rating was created around May 2020. A lot has changed since then. And it doesn't account i.e. the (questionable) injuries on 49ers side. So how far is this line accurate at this point?

Lots of injuries on 49ers wide receivers, etc
 

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Actually ATL /sea is really a toss up. Just realized there is really not much HFA w no fans & travel not such a big factor.
 

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Buffalo -6

O line Big edge Bills
Rb slight edge Jets
Qb edge Bills
Wr edge Bills

Dline slight edge Bills
LB edge Bills
CB edge Bills

Coaching edge Bills

No idea what Jets do with that WR group. Looks horrible. Bell and Gase are like a toxic couple who just need to break up. Jets line is a mess even with Becton. He was still very raw in college. Offense is just challenged. Rush game was horrible last year and not sure it can improve much this year. Defense will be much better as year progresses. LB core has biggest holes. And their is a leak at CB. Too much uncertainty and weaknesses for Jets. Now no preseason and live reps. Not sure how underdeveloped rookie wr Mimms comes out the gate but he doesn’t have much support. And Darnold, well it’s Darnold and the Jets.

Bills are simply same team as last year which didn’t have many holes. Have chemistry and same coaches. At home and added Veteran pieces for depth and with Vets they won’t be hindered too much especially with good familiarity with coaches from previous years and systems. If the Bills pass rush improves and they take advantage of the matchup then this is the turning point for the game to get ugly in the 41-6 area. Pass rush was just okay last year. Allen has Diggs now but idk about chemistry just yet. Do believe the O line is underrated and is definitely Top 10. Sneaky good at O-line imo. Mobile Allen and good line vs a Jets team who aren’t great with pass rush either, should open it up for Bills to stay in control of game flow and avoid too much trouble.

Jets 0-1 TDS 2-3 Fgs 11pts
Bills 2-3 TDS 1-2 Fgs 22 Pts

Bills almost seem like a free square. Better defense and offense for Bills. Basically a play against what I see is a horrible Jets offense. I will predict Jets score a TD outbthe gate and likely go to shit. As much as I want to say it’s a Bills 41-10 win I’ll go with...

Bills 23
Jets 13
 

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Buffalo -6

O line Big edge Bills
Rb slight edge Jets
Qb edge Bills
Wr edge Bills

Dline slight edge Bills
LB edge Bills
CB edge Bills

Coaching edge Bills

No idea what Jets do with that WR group. Looks horrible. Bell and Gase are like a toxic couple who just need to break up. Jets line is a mess even with Becton. He was still very raw in college. Offense is just challenged. Rush game was horrible last year and not sure it can improve much this year. Defense will be much better as year progresses. LB core has biggest holes. And their is a leak at CB. Too much uncertainty and weaknesses for Jets. Now no preseason and live reps. Not sure how underdeveloped rookie wr Mimms comes out the gate but he doesn’t have much support. And Darnold, well it’s Darnold and the Jets.

Bills are simply same team as last year which didn’t have many holes. Have chemistry and same coaches. At home and added Veteran pieces for depth and with Vets they won’t be hindered too much especially with good familiarity with coaches from previous years and systems. If the Bills pass rush improves and they take advantage of the matchup then this is the turning point for the game to get ugly in the 41-6 area. Pass rush was just okay last year. Allen has Diggs now but idk about chemistry just yet. Do believe the O line is underrated and is definitely Top 10. Sneaky good at O-line imo. Mobile Allen and good line vs a Jets team who aren’t great with pass rush either, should open it up for Bills to stay in control of game flow and avoid too much trouble.

Jets 0-1 TDS 2-3 Fgs 11pts
Bills 2-3 TDS 1-2 Fgs 22 Pts

Bills almost seem like a free square. Better defense and offense for Bills. Basically a play against what I see is a horrible Jets offense. I will predict Jets score a TD outbthe gate and likely go to shit. As much as I want to say it’s a Bills 41-10 win I’ll go with...

Bills 23
Jets 13

Pretty much sums it up. Line seems low based on perception of teams. Bills biggest question mark is qb. I don’t think they can beat any of the top afc teams if they were to make the postseason with Allen at qb. He just doesn’t seem to have a feel for the position. An in shape Bell would be a good get for a team like sea
 

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Line seems about right on buffalo. Offense is nothing amazing and will definitely help Jets hang around and as always win is an option. It’s no free square. If buffalo defense plays well then I think that’s the difference maker the jets can’t overcome. Turnovers come into play it could get ugly. Either way it’s gambling.

GL
 

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Recap NFL week #1

7-1

Wash Under win
Wash +6 win
Wash ML win
Pitt Under win
Pitt -3.5 win
Arizona +7.5 win
Buffalo -6 win
Miami +7.5 loss

Nice chatting it up past few weeks on games with fellow posters.
 

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Dallas vs Atlanta thoughts?

OVER 52.5

Dallas DL looks good. Back 7 not so much. Dallas played with a bit of good pace at times vs Rams. OL still looks decent but are down a few injuries. DAK seems to be a big stat guy vs lower competition. ATL Secondary is young and the obvious weak link. Not sure the DL can interrupt game flow enough anywhere close to Rams. Pollard has some spunk and gives a decent different look with rotation of Zeke.

Falcons have the obvious advantage also vs DAL secondary. Not sure Boys have a matchup vs Calvin or Julio and ATL will have to feed them. DL could wreck game flow for ATL if they don’t establish some sort of run. I don’t know what to make of ATL defense and that seems like a bad sign already. Secondary is a hot mess and linebackers are thin almost hot mess.

I seem to lean a snooze fest 1st half and sloppy Atlanta side on offense. Maybe something boring like 17-7. And as usual Atlanta forced to pass and play catch-up in 2nd half and like last week (typical ATL) score some garbage points with 5 minutes left and close the gap with possible backdoor cover BS.
would not be shocked to see 21 points scored by both teams in last 5 minutes.

Going with ATL fails to establish run game 1st half. Dallas DL forces Matty into 1-2 mistakes. DAL moves the ball well and has spurts of uptempo pace here and there. And points don’t jump off the board till later in 2nd half when pace picks up. Game will never be to close as to what final scoreboard says imo.

QB slight edge Dallas
RB big edge Dallas
WR/TE slight edge ATL
OL slight edge ATL

DL edge Dallas
LB edge Nobody
CB edge Dallas


ATL 2-3 TD 2-3 FG (24.5pts)
DAL 3-4 TD 1-2 FG (29pts)

Dallas 34
Atlanta 29

Any ATL or DAL watchers with some input?
 

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Chiefs vs LA Rams/Bolts

Chiefs-8

Bolts have been pre season hype machines for what 10 years now? Lots of love for defense this year but I just don’t see it. Bolts always play Chiefs tough and even stole a game from them last year. Chiefs for me are just not a lock in to cover larger spreads. But they do score bunches super fast at times. 8 is more important these days with XP shenanigans.

Bolts offense. Well they are rolling out conservative Tyrod. No more check down Charlie Mr. Rivers padding box scores of 300 yards and 2 TD by playing long hand off to RB’s. Oline has all sorts of Holes, injuries and unknowns. Bottom line it’s a vanilla Offense that isn’t suited vs a Chiefs Offense. Scheme, Tyrod and Limping Oline equals Chalk and Chiefs. I have to expect Bolts locker room is pumped up with false sense of hope. Likely discussing how if they can control the clock, utilize the run and rely on the defenses they can keep it close and rattle KC choice of play style/tempo. Sounds great! I would agree. Just one problem, that OL.

Chiefs and Pat on some nice new turf break it in in fashion. Not stating the obvious, but Chiefs can just score too quick and much. KC defense has some play making pieces but lacks consistency all 3 groups. Anytime you have an Offense that can score , no matter how good the defense is they will surrender more points than how good they are. Just by pure pace and more possessions of opportunity by other teams. But I think for this game the front of KC can make some noise and capitalize on inferior OL issues of Bolts.

Simply a play of a Great Offense vs a Offense that just isn’t suited by game script to make a impact vs Chiefs. No matter how good the Bolts defense is by all the backers out there. If the play calling by the Bolts was done by Niners Shanny then I would go the other way. As I would consider this a good team comp in many factors. Bolts just don’t have that play calling or the Oline like Niners. I think we see some ST/Def noise by KC this game. Along with some big plays by KC. KC will need to eat some sort of clock to tease Bolts just enough to think they are in it.

QB big edge KC
OL edge KC
RB edge KC
TE/WR big edge KC

DL edge Bolts
LB slight edge KC
secondary edge Bolts


KC 3-4 TD 2-3 FG (32pts)
Bolts 1-2 TD 2-3 FG (18pts)

KC 36
SD 17
 

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Saints vs Raiders Thoughts?

Saints -5.5

QB edge Saints
RB edge Saints
WR/TE slight edge Saints
OL edge Saints

DL big edge Saints
LB slight edge Saints
Secondary edge Saints

Raiders OL is good but now riddled with injuries. My guess Brown out, Incognito in but limited.
WR’s 2 rookies both raw, both banged up

Don’t feel this sets up game script wise well for Oakland. Saints DL has been dominant vs RB since last year. Banged up OL and WR situation vs a very good secondary seems to take away from strength of Raiders. And allow more inside box help for saints.

No Thomas doesn’t even matter here imo. Saints OL is really good. Raiders weakness vs run seems likely with no Thomas more help goes to the box. Saints imo run all over Raiders with Kamra and Murray.

play on the much better defense vs a bit hobbled and more one dimensional offense. And the better OL. Payton is in a situation offensively where he will do some wonkey looks. Taysom wishbone formation won’t surprise me.

Saints 3-4 TD 2-3 FG (31.5pts)
Raiders 1-2 TD 2-3 FG (18 pts)

Saints 34
Raiders 16

Saints -5.5
 

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Week #2 1-2
YTD 8-3

Dallas Over win
KC loss
NO loss


Week #3

Patriots -5.5
Bucs -5.5
Washington +7.5
 

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Back to some NFL.

Week 3 3-2
YTD 11-5

Week #7
New England -1 -120
Kansas City -9
Tampa -2.5
Arizona Under 56.5
Houston +3.5
Rams -6
Cincinnati +3
Cincinnati Over 50
 

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LW 4-3-1
YTD 15-8-1

Week#8

KC -19.5
NO Under 46
PITT +4 -120
PITT Over 46.5
Phil -3 -120
LV +3
 

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