[h=1]NFL Vegas Power Rankings[/h][h=3]Updated ratings for all 32 NFL teams and the best Week 2 value plays[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle Seahawks[/FONT]' complete-game victory in Thursday night's opener was enough to separate themselves from the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Denver Broncos[/FONT] and take over the top spot in the latest NFL Vegas Rankings.
The Seahawks blew out the Green Bay Packers 36-16 as a 5-point favorite in one of the strongest performances of the opening weekend. The Broncos were on their way to an equally dominating triumph over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night, but Denver let them back in the game and ended up not covering the closing 8.5-point spread in a 31-24 victory.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are the composite power ratings of a panel of professional handicappers including Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com, Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com and yours truly. The ratings are intended to weigh the relative strength of the teams if they met on a neutral field and to be compared to the point spread on a given game.
How do we put this into action? Looking at the lines available for Week 2, there are 13 games that are pretty much spot-on or within a point of our rankings after adjusting around 2.5 points for home-field advantage, which is pretty much the industry standard these days (note: teams such as the Packers, Patriots and 49ers are typically given a full field goal while the Broncos and Saints are closer to 3.5. The Seahawks are often given four points by most handicappers while teams such as the Jets, Raiders and Jaguars will be given just 1.5 points).
Below is a look at the power ratings for all 32 NFL teams, along with three Week 2 games where there appears to be value in the current lines. Again, these are not my personal plays or of any of the other handicappers. I'll post my thoughts in the "Tuley's Take" column Friday.
Rout of highly regarded Packers moves them into sole possession of top spot.
Previous rating: 26
2. <offer>Denver Broncos (26)</offer>
Peyton Manning & Co. clicked early but let Colts back in game and didn't cover.
Previous rating: 26
3. San Francisco 49ers (25)
49ers looking again like one of the most complete teams in the league.
Previous rating: 25
4. New Orleans Saints (24.5)
Saints drop slightly after coming out on short end of back-and-forth battle with Atlanta on the road.
Previous rating: 25
5. Green Bay Packers (24)
Packers drop a point but can't downgrade too much, as Seattle is a tough place to play.
Previous rating: 25
6t. New England Patriots (23)
Pats suffer big drop as they looked almost ordinary in second half versus Dolphins.
Previous rating: 24.5
6t. Cincinnati Bengals (23)
They look like they're still the best team in AFC North with big road win at Baltimore.
Previous rating: 22.5
8. Arizona Cardinals (22.5)
They were on the way to being downgraded but rallied to beat Chargers on "Monday Night Football."
Previous rating: 22.5
9. San Diego Chargers (22)
San Diego drops slightly as the Chargers need to learn how to close out close games.
Previous rating: 22.5
10. Philadelphia Eagles (21)
Eagles covered as 10.5-point favorites, but uneven performance keeps them with same rating.
Previous rating: 21
Rally came up short versus Broncos, but they showed something while covering.
Previous rating: 19.5
12t. Atlanta Falcons (20)
Atlanta's gutsy win over Saints says the Falcons are back and ready to challenge for playoffs.
Previous rating: 19
12t. Detroit Lions (20)
Detroit moving up the rankings quickly after motoring to victory over Giants.
Previous rating: 19
12t. Carolina Panthers (20)
Considering Panthers beat Bucs without Cam Newton in lineup, we had them too low.
Previous rating: 18.5
12t. Miami Dolphins (20)
Miami tied for biggest increase in power ratings after outplaying Patriots.
Previous rating: 17.5
16. Chicago Bears (19.5)
Home loss to Bills as solid 7-point favorites takes the Bears down a notch.
Previous rating: 20.5
17t. Pittsburgh Steelers (19)
Pittsburgh dominated Browns early, but they let them back in game to hold steady in our poll.
Previous rating: 19
17t. Baltimore Ravens (19)
Ravens struggled early but showed something with rally to stay in same spot here.
Previous rating: 19
17t. Houston Texans (19)
Houston snapped a 14-game losing streak, but it was only Washington, after all.
Previous rating: 19
20. Tennessee Titans (18.5)
Titans appeared much improved in rout of Chiefs, looking like better team.
Previous rating: 17
Houston has a tough defense, but Washington still only managed two field goals.
Previous rating: 19
21t. Kansas City Chiefs (18)
KC takes big drop after loss as home favorite; return of Dwayne Bowe helps.
Previous rating: 19.5
21t. Buffalo Bills (18)
Buffalo upgraded two whole points off a gutty road overtime win over Bears.
Previous rating: 16
24. New York Jets (18)
Jets mostly in control against Raiders, but narrow noncover keeps them in same spot.
Previous rating: 18
25. Minnesota Vikings (17.5)
Vikings tied for the biggest upgrade of all after 34-6 rout on road in St. Louis.
Previous rating: 15
26t. New York Giants (17)
Giants turned in one of the worst performances of the opening weekend.
Previous rating: 19
26t. Dallas Cowboys (17)
Defense was supposed to be bad, but it doesn't help when offense allows 14 points, too.
Previous rating: 17
28. Cleveland Browns (16)
Browns looked overmatched early, however, Brian Hoyer was very impressive in rally to cover.
Previous rating: 14
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15.5)
Bucs showed some life late but drop a little after loss as favorites over Panthers.
Previous rating: 16
30. St. Louis Rams (15)
Rams didn't show much in opener and suffer a two-point drop with 34-6 home loss to Vikings.
Previous rating: 17
31t. Jacksonville Jaguars (14)
Jags looked improved, but second-half collapse leaves them with same power rating.
Previous rating: 14
31t. Oakland Raiders (14)
Oakland covered as 5.5-point road dog but scored early and late -- and nothing in between.
Previous rating: 14
Vegas consensus line: Seahawks minus-5.5 (before SD's Monday night game)
Vegas Ranks: Seahawks minus-4.5 (26.5-22)
Seattle is the top-rated team and is rated 4.5 points better than San Diego after the Chargers' Monday night loss to Arizona. But even if you give the Chargers just two points for home-field advantage in this Week 2 matchup, that takes the projected difference less than a field goal. This line was Seahawks minus-5.5 at most books Monday before being taken off the board at kickoff, though we don't expect it to change much, and it gives slight value on San Diego.
The play: Chargers plus-5.5 (or anything plus-3.5 or higher)
Vegas consensus line: Giants minus-2 (before both teams' Monday night games)
Vegas Ranks: Cardinals minus-5.5 (22.5-17)
Here's another game where we're waiting for the adjusted line, as both were playing in separate games in the ESPN MNF doubleheader. The Cardinals are rated as 5.5 points better, so even if we give the G-men 2.5 points for home field, it leaves the Cards a full field goal better. This line was Giants minus-2 Monday, so even if it's adjusted to pick 'em or Arizona as a small favorite, there still looks to be value on the Cards.
The play: Cardinals minus-2.5 or better.
Vegas consensus line: 49ers minus-7
Vegas Ranks: 49ers minus-5.5 (25-19.5)
San Francisco is rated 5.5 points higher than the Bears, and after adding in home field, it takes us over the key number of 7. We certainly wouldn't lay the hook if the line were to increase to 7.5, but anything under a touchdown looks playable.
The play: 49ers minus-7
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle Seahawks[/FONT]' complete-game victory in Thursday night's opener was enough to separate themselves from the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Denver Broncos[/FONT] and take over the top spot in the latest NFL Vegas Rankings.
The Seahawks blew out the Green Bay Packers 36-16 as a 5-point favorite in one of the strongest performances of the opening weekend. The Broncos were on their way to an equally dominating triumph over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night, but Denver let them back in the game and ended up not covering the closing 8.5-point spread in a 31-24 victory.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are the composite power ratings of a panel of professional handicappers including Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com, Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com and yours truly. The ratings are intended to weigh the relative strength of the teams if they met on a neutral field and to be compared to the point spread on a given game.
How do we put this into action? Looking at the lines available for Week 2, there are 13 games that are pretty much spot-on or within a point of our rankings after adjusting around 2.5 points for home-field advantage, which is pretty much the industry standard these days (note: teams such as the Packers, Patriots and 49ers are typically given a full field goal while the Broncos and Saints are closer to 3.5. The Seahawks are often given four points by most handicappers while teams such as the Jets, Raiders and Jaguars will be given just 1.5 points).
Below is a look at the power ratings for all 32 NFL teams, along with three Week 2 games where there appears to be value in the current lines. Again, these are not my personal plays or of any of the other handicappers. I'll post my thoughts in the "Tuley's Take" column Friday.
[h=3]NFL Vegas Rankings[/h]1. Seattle Seahawks (Power rating: 26.5)Rout of highly regarded Packers moves them into sole possession of top spot.
Previous rating: 26
2. <offer>Denver Broncos (26)</offer>
Peyton Manning & Co. clicked early but let Colts back in game and didn't cover.
Previous rating: 26
3. San Francisco 49ers (25)
49ers looking again like one of the most complete teams in the league.
Previous rating: 25
4. New Orleans Saints (24.5)
Saints drop slightly after coming out on short end of back-and-forth battle with Atlanta on the road.
Previous rating: 25
5. Green Bay Packers (24)
Packers drop a point but can't downgrade too much, as Seattle is a tough place to play.
Previous rating: 25
6t. New England Patriots (23)
Pats suffer big drop as they looked almost ordinary in second half versus Dolphins.
Previous rating: 24.5
6t. Cincinnati Bengals (23)
They look like they're still the best team in AFC North with big road win at Baltimore.
Previous rating: 22.5
8. Arizona Cardinals (22.5)
They were on the way to being downgraded but rallied to beat Chargers on "Monday Night Football."
Previous rating: 22.5
9. San Diego Chargers (22)
San Diego drops slightly as the Chargers need to learn how to close out close games.
Previous rating: 22.5
10. Philadelphia Eagles (21)
Eagles covered as 10.5-point favorites, but uneven performance keeps them with same rating.
Previous rating: 21
11. Indianapolis Colts (20.5)Rally came up short versus Broncos, but they showed something while covering.
Previous rating: 19.5
12t. Atlanta Falcons (20)
Atlanta's gutsy win over Saints says the Falcons are back and ready to challenge for playoffs.
Previous rating: 19
12t. Detroit Lions (20)
Detroit moving up the rankings quickly after motoring to victory over Giants.
Previous rating: 19
12t. Carolina Panthers (20)
Considering Panthers beat Bucs without Cam Newton in lineup, we had them too low.
Previous rating: 18.5
12t. Miami Dolphins (20)
Miami tied for biggest increase in power ratings after outplaying Patriots.
Previous rating: 17.5
16. Chicago Bears (19.5)
Home loss to Bills as solid 7-point favorites takes the Bears down a notch.
Previous rating: 20.5
17t. Pittsburgh Steelers (19)
Pittsburgh dominated Browns early, but they let them back in game to hold steady in our poll.
Previous rating: 19
17t. Baltimore Ravens (19)
Ravens struggled early but showed something with rally to stay in same spot here.
Previous rating: 19
17t. Houston Texans (19)
Houston snapped a 14-game losing streak, but it was only Washington, after all.
Previous rating: 19
20. Tennessee Titans (18.5)
Titans appeared much improved in rout of Chiefs, looking like better team.
Previous rating: 17
21t. Washington Redskins (18)Houston has a tough defense, but Washington still only managed two field goals.
Previous rating: 19
21t. Kansas City Chiefs (18)
KC takes big drop after loss as home favorite; return of Dwayne Bowe helps.
Previous rating: 19.5
21t. Buffalo Bills (18)
Buffalo upgraded two whole points off a gutty road overtime win over Bears.
Previous rating: 16
24. New York Jets (18)
Jets mostly in control against Raiders, but narrow noncover keeps them in same spot.
Previous rating: 18
25. Minnesota Vikings (17.5)
Vikings tied for the biggest upgrade of all after 34-6 rout on road in St. Louis.
Previous rating: 15
26t. New York Giants (17)
Giants turned in one of the worst performances of the opening weekend.
Previous rating: 19
26t. Dallas Cowboys (17)
Defense was supposed to be bad, but it doesn't help when offense allows 14 points, too.
Previous rating: 17
28. Cleveland Browns (16)
Browns looked overmatched early, however, Brian Hoyer was very impressive in rally to cover.
Previous rating: 14
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15.5)
Bucs showed some life late but drop a little after loss as favorites over Panthers.
Previous rating: 16
30. St. Louis Rams (15)
Rams didn't show much in opener and suffer a two-point drop with 34-6 home loss to Vikings.
Previous rating: 17
31t. Jacksonville Jaguars (14)
Jags looked improved, but second-half collapse leaves them with same power rating.
Previous rating: 14
31t. Oakland Raiders (14)
Oakland covered as 5.5-point road dog but scored early and late -- and nothing in between.
Previous rating: 14
[h=3]Value plays[/h]Seattle Seahawks at San Diego ChargersVegas consensus line: Seahawks minus-5.5 (before SD's Monday night game)
Vegas Ranks: Seahawks minus-4.5 (26.5-22)
Seattle is the top-rated team and is rated 4.5 points better than San Diego after the Chargers' Monday night loss to Arizona. But even if you give the Chargers just two points for home-field advantage in this Week 2 matchup, that takes the projected difference less than a field goal. This line was Seahawks minus-5.5 at most books Monday before being taken off the board at kickoff, though we don't expect it to change much, and it gives slight value on San Diego.
The play: Chargers plus-5.5 (or anything plus-3.5 or higher)
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsVegas consensus line: Giants minus-2 (before both teams' Monday night games)
Vegas Ranks: Cardinals minus-5.5 (22.5-17)
Here's another game where we're waiting for the adjusted line, as both were playing in separate games in the ESPN MNF doubleheader. The Cardinals are rated as 5.5 points better, so even if we give the G-men 2.5 points for home field, it leaves the Cards a full field goal better. This line was Giants minus-2 Monday, so even if it's adjusted to pick 'em or Arizona as a small favorite, there still looks to be value on the Cards.
The play: Cardinals minus-2.5 or better.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ersVegas consensus line: 49ers minus-7
Vegas Ranks: 49ers minus-5.5 (25-19.5)
San Francisco is rated 5.5 points higher than the Bears, and after adding in home field, it takes us over the key number of 7. We certainly wouldn't lay the hook if the line were to increase to 7.5, but anything under a touchdown looks playable.
The play: 49ers minus-7
