Chiefs expect Spencer Ware (torn PCL) to miss season.
Spencer Ware'sknee injury will likely sideline him for the season. The Kansas City Chiefs confirmed that Ware suffered a torn PCL in addition to other damage in Friday night's loss to the Seahawks. The starting running back is slated to get a second opinion, but the injury is thought to be season-ending, according to the team.
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday that Ware also suffered LCL damage and added Sunday that the Chiefs are holding out hope that Ware can be placed on injured reserve/designated to return, per sources informed of the situation.
Ware was coming off of a career year in 2016 during which he led the team in rushing with a career-high 921 yards. The back was also Kansas City's fifth-leading receiver. With Ware out and Jeremy Maclin in Baltimore, K.C. will be without two of their top four yardage earners from 2016.
The expected long-term absence of Ware moves rookie tailback Kareem Hunt into the starting role in Kansas City. Ware and Hunt were splitting starting carries at the time of the injury.
Behind Hunt are Charcandrick West, De'Anthony Thomas and journeyman runner C.J. Spiller. Hunt, a third-round selection out of Toledo, has been impressive through two extended preseason appearances, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per reception.
Spencer Ware'sknee injury will likely sideline him for the season. The Kansas City Chiefs confirmed that Ware suffered a torn PCL in addition to other damage in Friday night's loss to the Seahawks. The starting running back is slated to get a second opinion, but the injury is thought to be season-ending, according to the team.
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday that Ware also suffered LCL damage and added Sunday that the Chiefs are holding out hope that Ware can be placed on injured reserve/designated to return, per sources informed of the situation.
Ware was coming off of a career year in 2016 during which he led the team in rushing with a career-high 921 yards. The back was also Kansas City's fifth-leading receiver. With Ware out and Jeremy Maclin in Baltimore, K.C. will be without two of their top four yardage earners from 2016.
The expected long-term absence of Ware moves rookie tailback Kareem Hunt into the starting role in Kansas City. Ware and Hunt were splitting starting carries at the time of the injury.
Behind Hunt are Charcandrick West, De'Anthony Thomas and journeyman runner C.J. Spiller. Hunt, a third-round selection out of Toledo, has been impressive through two extended preseason appearances, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per reception.
Adrian Peterson feels as fresh as 'Year 1' heading into season.
NEW ORLEANS -- Adrian Peterson hadn’t touched the football in a preseason game since 2011. But once he finally did it Saturday night, Peterson said, “I was hoping for more.”
“Once I was going, I was like, ‘Hey, you might as well just let us play the whole game,’” said the New Orleans Saints running back, who broke tradition since he’s breaking in with a new team.
Unfortunately, it was a pretty uneventful night for Peterson and the Saints' entire offense in a 13-0 victory over the Houston Texans.
Peterson had six carries for 15 yards, the highlight coming on a nifty spin move when he turned a potential run stuff into a 3-yard gain. He also caught one pass for a 1-yard loss.
“It felt good, you know. I was looking forward to it,” the 10-year veteran said. “I haven’t played in the preseason for a long time, so it was good to get out there. I think I had maybe five or six carries, 12 or 13 plays. It felt good to move around, to get hit and kind of get those first reps out of the way.
“Get the body kind of banging around a little bit, getting some good looks against a top-three defense. Unfortunately we didn’t accomplish what we wanted to accomplish as an offense that first quarter. But playing against a defense like that, that’s one of those games you have to grind out.
“It would’ve been fun to play four quarters against them.”
Peterson’s next action will be really fun: a reunion with his former team, the Minnesota Vikings, in Minnesota on Monday Night Football in Week 1.
And regardless of how uneventful his preseason was, the 32-year-old Peterson insisted he feels as ready to roll as ever heading into a season.
“It seems normal to me. Like Year 1. Seriously. I feel fresh,” said Peterson, who missed 13 games last season because of a torn meniscus in his knee, but also got to rest his body as a result.
“I’m ready, man," Peterson said. "Two weeks before we start, I’m just trying to keep myself calm, relaxed and just focused on day by day, getting ready for the opener.”
Peterson also pointed out that it was probably good for the coaches to test out the rotation with him and Mark Ingram on Saturday. Ingram started the game, then Peterson began to work into the mix on the Saints' second drive.
Peterson’s first touch was actually a screen pass. He also mixed in some draw plays with some traditional handoffs. All the Saints’ backs -- including rookie Alvin Kamara, who got the night off -- will likely be used in versatile roles.
However, it’s worth noting that Peterson was replaced by Ingram on a third-and-4 snap from the Texans’ 8-yard line. Ingram will likely see a lot of third-down work since he is so valued as a pass-protector and pass-catcher.
Ingram’s night wasn’t much more eventful than Peterson’s. He had four carries for 9 yards and two catches for 11 yards. The injury-depleted offensive line didn’t offer much room to any running back.
Saints coach Sean Payton explained that Kamara didn't play because it's hard to give all the running backs on the 90-man roster enough touches in a game like this, and Kamara got the reps with the first-stringers in the first two preseason games.
“I think overall both [Peterson] and Mark had some decent opportunities. I said in [the locker room] there wasn’t anything flashy happening with the offense early on,” Payton said. He acknowledged the obvious: that the offense wasn’t up to its usual standard.
But the unit will have more hands on deck two weeks from now, with center Max Unger and left tackle Ryan Ramczyk likely to be available for the season opener.
Peterson also got his first glimpse Saturday of what it feel like to call the Superdome home, though it was hardly a capacity crowd.
“It felt good coming out the tunnel,” Peterson said. “Wanted to make sure I didn’t run too fast. I couldn’t see too much in the dark and the smoke [in pregame introductions]. But just to see all the fans and get a little feel of it -- I know you can’t compare it to that second week when we play the Patriots. But it was a good little tease.”
NEW ORLEANS -- Adrian Peterson hadn’t touched the football in a preseason game since 2011. But once he finally did it Saturday night, Peterson said, “I was hoping for more.”
“Once I was going, I was like, ‘Hey, you might as well just let us play the whole game,’” said the New Orleans Saints running back, who broke tradition since he’s breaking in with a new team.
Unfortunately, it was a pretty uneventful night for Peterson and the Saints' entire offense in a 13-0 victory over the Houston Texans.
Peterson had six carries for 15 yards, the highlight coming on a nifty spin move when he turned a potential run stuff into a 3-yard gain. He also caught one pass for a 1-yard loss.
“It felt good, you know. I was looking forward to it,” the 10-year veteran said. “I haven’t played in the preseason for a long time, so it was good to get out there. I think I had maybe five or six carries, 12 or 13 plays. It felt good to move around, to get hit and kind of get those first reps out of the way.
“Get the body kind of banging around a little bit, getting some good looks against a top-three defense. Unfortunately we didn’t accomplish what we wanted to accomplish as an offense that first quarter. But playing against a defense like that, that’s one of those games you have to grind out.
“It would’ve been fun to play four quarters against them.”
Peterson’s next action will be really fun: a reunion with his former team, the Minnesota Vikings, in Minnesota on Monday Night Football in Week 1.
And regardless of how uneventful his preseason was, the 32-year-old Peterson insisted he feels as ready to roll as ever heading into a season.
“It seems normal to me. Like Year 1. Seriously. I feel fresh,” said Peterson, who missed 13 games last season because of a torn meniscus in his knee, but also got to rest his body as a result.
“I’m ready, man," Peterson said. "Two weeks before we start, I’m just trying to keep myself calm, relaxed and just focused on day by day, getting ready for the opener.”
Peterson also pointed out that it was probably good for the coaches to test out the rotation with him and Mark Ingram on Saturday. Ingram started the game, then Peterson began to work into the mix on the Saints' second drive.
Peterson’s first touch was actually a screen pass. He also mixed in some draw plays with some traditional handoffs. All the Saints’ backs -- including rookie Alvin Kamara, who got the night off -- will likely be used in versatile roles.
However, it’s worth noting that Peterson was replaced by Ingram on a third-and-4 snap from the Texans’ 8-yard line. Ingram will likely see a lot of third-down work since he is so valued as a pass-protector and pass-catcher.
Ingram’s night wasn’t much more eventful than Peterson’s. He had four carries for 9 yards and two catches for 11 yards. The injury-depleted offensive line didn’t offer much room to any running back.
Saints coach Sean Payton explained that Kamara didn't play because it's hard to give all the running backs on the 90-man roster enough touches in a game like this, and Kamara got the reps with the first-stringers in the first two preseason games.
“I think overall both [Peterson] and Mark had some decent opportunities. I said in [the locker room] there wasn’t anything flashy happening with the offense early on,” Payton said. He acknowledged the obvious: that the offense wasn’t up to its usual standard.
But the unit will have more hands on deck two weeks from now, with center Max Unger and left tackle Ryan Ramczyk likely to be available for the season opener.
Peterson also got his first glimpse Saturday of what it feel like to call the Superdome home, though it was hardly a capacity crowd.
“It felt good coming out the tunnel,” Peterson said. “Wanted to make sure I didn’t run too fast. I couldn’t see too much in the dark and the smoke [in pregame introductions]. But just to see all the fans and get a little feel of it -- I know you can’t compare it to that second week when we play the Patriots. But it was a good little tease.”
Red zone concerns linger for Bucs after three preseason games.
TAMPA, Fla. -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter said their goal this season was to go "60 percent in the red zone." Through three preseason games, the Bucs are 2-of-7 (28.5 percent) in the red zone, with only one of those touchdowns coming with the first-team offense on the field.
Yes, the Bucs were without Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson Saturday night against the Cleveland Browns, and Adam Humphries left in the second quarter with a hip injury. They were also without starting right tackle Demar Dotson and starting left guard Kevin Pamphile. Even so, the lack of scoring this preseason is a big concern.
Jameis Winston had opportunities to connect with Evans in the first two preseason games. On Saturday night, Winston also had two opportunities to hit Cameron Brate -- one of his lone healthy weapons -- and the two missed.
"That was just a bad throw to Cam," Winston said of Jabrill Peppers' pick, which came on the opening drive. "We were open. We had two guys open there, and I've just got to be precise."
Winston almost had Donteea Dye Jr. on a pass in the corner of the end zone, but it was ruled incomplete.
Winston and Brate stay after practice every day for at least 30 minutes to work on passes in the red zone. They've done that for a long time. The fruits of that labor came to fruition last year when the two connected for eight touchdowns, tied for most in the league among tight ends and matching Jimmie Giles' franchise record.
Winston also threw 12 touchdown passes to Evans last year, tied for second-most in the league. Even with Evans sitting for the third preseason game, there's no reason the two couldn't connect in the end zone in Cincinnati or in Jacksonville.
"We've just got to quit shooting ourselves in the foot and just get over that hump," Winston said. "But man, it looks good, it feels good out there. We're doing some great things. We're not getting shut out. It's not like we are having three-and-outs, by any chance. We are hurting ourselves."
They've moved the ball well. In fact, the Bucs have averaged 346 yards per game on offense this preseason -- eighth-most in the league. But they're averaging just 12 points a game -- 28th in the league.
In 2015, Koetter's first year as offensive coordinator, the Bucs ran into that same problem. They posted the fifth-most offensive yardage in the league that year (376 yards per game) but were 20th in the league in scoring, averaging 21.4 points per game.
Is Koetter concerned?
"It's going to concern me if it happens Sept. 10," Koetter said. "But tonight, it is what it is."
When asked what he saw on the field Saturday night, he gave just a one-word response, and it painted a bleak picture.
"Blah."
TAMPA, Fla. -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter said their goal this season was to go "60 percent in the red zone." Through three preseason games, the Bucs are 2-of-7 (28.5 percent) in the red zone, with only one of those touchdowns coming with the first-team offense on the field.
Yes, the Bucs were without Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson Saturday night against the Cleveland Browns, and Adam Humphries left in the second quarter with a hip injury. They were also without starting right tackle Demar Dotson and starting left guard Kevin Pamphile. Even so, the lack of scoring this preseason is a big concern.
Jameis Winston had opportunities to connect with Evans in the first two preseason games. On Saturday night, Winston also had two opportunities to hit Cameron Brate -- one of his lone healthy weapons -- and the two missed.
"That was just a bad throw to Cam," Winston said of Jabrill Peppers' pick, which came on the opening drive. "We were open. We had two guys open there, and I've just got to be precise."
Winston almost had Donteea Dye Jr. on a pass in the corner of the end zone, but it was ruled incomplete.
Winston and Brate stay after practice every day for at least 30 minutes to work on passes in the red zone. They've done that for a long time. The fruits of that labor came to fruition last year when the two connected for eight touchdowns, tied for most in the league among tight ends and matching Jimmie Giles' franchise record.
Winston also threw 12 touchdown passes to Evans last year, tied for second-most in the league. Even with Evans sitting for the third preseason game, there's no reason the two couldn't connect in the end zone in Cincinnati or in Jacksonville.
"We've just got to quit shooting ourselves in the foot and just get over that hump," Winston said. "But man, it looks good, it feels good out there. We're doing some great things. We're not getting shut out. It's not like we are having three-and-outs, by any chance. We are hurting ourselves."
They've moved the ball well. In fact, the Bucs have averaged 346 yards per game on offense this preseason -- eighth-most in the league. But they're averaging just 12 points a game -- 28th in the league.
In 2015, Koetter's first year as offensive coordinator, the Bucs ran into that same problem. They posted the fifth-most offensive yardage in the league that year (376 yards per game) but were 20th in the league in scoring, averaging 21.4 points per game.
Is Koetter concerned?
"It's going to concern me if it happens Sept. 10," Koetter said. "But tonight, it is what it is."
When asked what he saw on the field Saturday night, he gave just a one-word response, and it painted a bleak picture.
"Blah."
Frank Gore among 2017 fantasy players to avoid.
The last time we wrote about fantasy players to avoid, Wonder Woman hadn't hit theaters, Euron Greyjoy hadn't started dunking on Jamie Lannister and Anquan Boldin was still an active NFL player.
Colin Kaepernick was still unemployed though. Some things remain status quo.
Anyway, things have changed since James Koh penned his list of players to avoid at the end of May. Rookies have settled into roles, quarterbacks have gone through competitions and we've dealt with a slew of frustrating injuries. Now that we've reached The All-Important Third Week of the Preseason[SUP]TM[/SUP], it's time to take stock of some notable NFL players. Some of the names have changed. Some haven't. Either way, I'll do my best to offer measured warnings as to why you should avoid adding them to your fake football team.
Y'know ... friendly, warm, uplifting analysis. Sigh. Let the sadness begin.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Los Angeles Rams: If you're looking for ways in which Watkins upgraded by being traded to the Rams ... there's the weather and that's about it. Jared Goff has played better this preseason but what we've seen of the Rams offense this summer still doesn't lend itself to a deep threat receiver being a consistent playmaker. With Cooper Kupp establishing himself as Goff's security blanket, Watkins is a best ball option who could offer fantasy successes and failures in equal doses. Why spend a fifth round pick for that uncertainty when you can wait a round or two and get DeSean Jackson?
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: No one believed that Blount was going to repeat his 18-touchdown performance from a season ago but few expected to see headlines suggesting Blount was on the bubble. Doug Pederson has given Blount a vote of confidence (is there any gesture that inspires less confidence?) and says that the big back will have a role in the offense. Blount's saving grace is that there isn't much depth behind him. But with an offensive line that struggled to run the ball in short yardage situations (PHI ranked 25th last year, per Football Outsiders), he'll need to approach the 250 carry mark to have anything close to the fantasy impact he had last year. Seems like a tall order for a running back who's only topped 200 carries twice in his career playing in an offense that still skews pass-heavy.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Nothing about the Seahawks backfield should give fantasy managers any level of confidence but Lacy is a particularly concerning case. He's shown nothing in preseason to suggest he could overtake a healthy Thomas Rawls for the starting job. The most compelling story about the former Packer has involved football fans gawking from afar to see if he hit his weight loss benchmarks during training camp. This blurb could be about the Seattle running backs as a whole but with Lacy commanding the highest draft price of the group, he ends up in the spotlight.
Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants: There are as many running backs in Giants camp as there are pizza places with the word "Ray's" in the title. That's a slight exaggeration but Perkins hasn't separated himself from his backfield competition -- notably erstwhile Tatooine refugee Orleans Darkwa. The reality is that Perkins is a part-time running back in a suspect offense that has de-emphasized the run despite having a quarterback whose arm strength was noticeably diminished at the end of last season. This has many of the earmarks Matt Harmon mentioned last year when warning against making Todd Gurley a top five pick. Except, yanno ... Perkins isn't quite as talented as Gurley.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants: Remember what I said about Eli Manning just a paragraph ago? That's going to have a direct impact on Marshall's production this year. Also having a direct impact on Marshall's production will be the number of targets in the offense already spoken for by Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard -- including 55 percent of Manning's red zone throws in 2016. Marshall is going to have to be touchdown-dependent to live up to the fifth round draft price.
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts: It is with a heavy heart that I inform you that we have reached the end of the road with Frank Gore. After outrunning Father Time and continually spitting in the eye of fantasy fanatics who doubted him, it appears that Andrew Luck's shoulder will be the obstacle that Gore can not overcome. With no real indication of when Luck will back on the field and an offensive line that could possibly be worse than it was last season, Gore is in danger of facing an endless array of stacked fronts. To make matters worse, Robert Turbin is still around to snatch up all of the Colts goal line targets. Here lies a once great fantasy running back. We salute you, Mr. Gore. But it appears that your time has come.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: In a cloudy battle to earn the majority of touches in the Bengals backfield, it's becoming increasingly clear that Hill might end up as the odd man out. The talk is that he could be the starter but that could end up being a symbolic title if he doesn't perform better than he has in the past two seasons. Giovani Bernard still has a well-defined role as a pass-catcher. Meanwhile Joe Mixon offers a nice blend of the Bengals two incumbent backs and could push for a larger role by the end of the season. Hill would need to score a lot of touchdowns to maintain his fantasy relevance.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts: It's all bad right now in Indy. As I mentioned earlier, Andrew Luck's potential absence is wreaking havoc with the fantasy potential of the players around him. Moncrief isn't being helped by a shoulder injury that has prevented him from having any contact. As a player in a make-or-break season with the Colts (and fantasy fans), none of this is ideal.
The last time we wrote about fantasy players to avoid, Wonder Woman hadn't hit theaters, Euron Greyjoy hadn't started dunking on Jamie Lannister and Anquan Boldin was still an active NFL player.
Colin Kaepernick was still unemployed though. Some things remain status quo.
Anyway, things have changed since James Koh penned his list of players to avoid at the end of May. Rookies have settled into roles, quarterbacks have gone through competitions and we've dealt with a slew of frustrating injuries. Now that we've reached The All-Important Third Week of the Preseason[SUP]TM[/SUP], it's time to take stock of some notable NFL players. Some of the names have changed. Some haven't. Either way, I'll do my best to offer measured warnings as to why you should avoid adding them to your fake football team.
Y'know ... friendly, warm, uplifting analysis. Sigh. Let the sadness begin.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Los Angeles Rams: If you're looking for ways in which Watkins upgraded by being traded to the Rams ... there's the weather and that's about it. Jared Goff has played better this preseason but what we've seen of the Rams offense this summer still doesn't lend itself to a deep threat receiver being a consistent playmaker. With Cooper Kupp establishing himself as Goff's security blanket, Watkins is a best ball option who could offer fantasy successes and failures in equal doses. Why spend a fifth round pick for that uncertainty when you can wait a round or two and get DeSean Jackson?
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: No one believed that Blount was going to repeat his 18-touchdown performance from a season ago but few expected to see headlines suggesting Blount was on the bubble. Doug Pederson has given Blount a vote of confidence (is there any gesture that inspires less confidence?) and says that the big back will have a role in the offense. Blount's saving grace is that there isn't much depth behind him. But with an offensive line that struggled to run the ball in short yardage situations (PHI ranked 25th last year, per Football Outsiders), he'll need to approach the 250 carry mark to have anything close to the fantasy impact he had last year. Seems like a tall order for a running back who's only topped 200 carries twice in his career playing in an offense that still skews pass-heavy.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Nothing about the Seahawks backfield should give fantasy managers any level of confidence but Lacy is a particularly concerning case. He's shown nothing in preseason to suggest he could overtake a healthy Thomas Rawls for the starting job. The most compelling story about the former Packer has involved football fans gawking from afar to see if he hit his weight loss benchmarks during training camp. This blurb could be about the Seattle running backs as a whole but with Lacy commanding the highest draft price of the group, he ends up in the spotlight.
Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants: There are as many running backs in Giants camp as there are pizza places with the word "Ray's" in the title. That's a slight exaggeration but Perkins hasn't separated himself from his backfield competition -- notably erstwhile Tatooine refugee Orleans Darkwa. The reality is that Perkins is a part-time running back in a suspect offense that has de-emphasized the run despite having a quarterback whose arm strength was noticeably diminished at the end of last season. This has many of the earmarks Matt Harmon mentioned last year when warning against making Todd Gurley a top five pick. Except, yanno ... Perkins isn't quite as talented as Gurley.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants: Remember what I said about Eli Manning just a paragraph ago? That's going to have a direct impact on Marshall's production this year. Also having a direct impact on Marshall's production will be the number of targets in the offense already spoken for by Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard -- including 55 percent of Manning's red zone throws in 2016. Marshall is going to have to be touchdown-dependent to live up to the fifth round draft price.
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts: It is with a heavy heart that I inform you that we have reached the end of the road with Frank Gore. After outrunning Father Time and continually spitting in the eye of fantasy fanatics who doubted him, it appears that Andrew Luck's shoulder will be the obstacle that Gore can not overcome. With no real indication of when Luck will back on the field and an offensive line that could possibly be worse than it was last season, Gore is in danger of facing an endless array of stacked fronts. To make matters worse, Robert Turbin is still around to snatch up all of the Colts goal line targets. Here lies a once great fantasy running back. We salute you, Mr. Gore. But it appears that your time has come.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: In a cloudy battle to earn the majority of touches in the Bengals backfield, it's becoming increasingly clear that Hill might end up as the odd man out. The talk is that he could be the starter but that could end up being a symbolic title if he doesn't perform better than he has in the past two seasons. Giovani Bernard still has a well-defined role as a pass-catcher. Meanwhile Joe Mixon offers a nice blend of the Bengals two incumbent backs and could push for a larger role by the end of the season. Hill would need to score a lot of touchdowns to maintain his fantasy relevance.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts: It's all bad right now in Indy. As I mentioned earlier, Andrew Luck's potential absence is wreaking havoc with the fantasy potential of the players around him. Moncrief isn't being helped by a shoulder injury that has prevented him from having any contact. As a player in a make-or-break season with the Colts (and fantasy fans), none of this is ideal.
Kelvin Benjamin leads 2017 fantasy draft bargains.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 57 overall | WR26): A player who ranks highest in ADP on this list, Kelvin Benjamin needs to be owned at his current cost. He's notched 100-plus targets and over 60 receptions in each of his last two healthy seasons for the Panthers and led the team with 15 red zone targets in 2016. There was negative buzz in the offseason surrounding Benjamin because of conditioning issues, but he is clearly in great shape during the preseason and that's been reflected in his high level of production. With 106 yards on six receptions and two touchdowns through three preseason games, Benjamin should be a focal point for Cam Newton in the passing game. Not to mention his size advantage. At 6-foot-5 he towers over most defenders, especially in the end zone. Benajmin is not going to burn anyone on a go-route, but he can high-point a catch and gain yards after with his toughness and ability to shed tacklers on the run. If you're drafting him as your flex wideout in Round 6, your fantasy roster is already in amazing shape. Robert Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins (ADP: 88 overall | RB35): A underwhelming end to 2016 followed by a less-than-impressive preseason has Rob Kelley's fantasy value depressed in a major way. Many draft pundits believe rookie back Samaje Perine is in line to steal the job from Kelley, but he hasn't made much headway thus far. Kelley, a rookie last season, only honed his skillset this offseason and lost a few pounds too, according to reports. At least early on, Kelley should be the team's primary back, and while he won't get much work in the passing game, he'll get all of the goal line looks. Ball security and consistently gaining positive yardage are two attributes that have kept Kelley on the field frequently for Washington. He's well worth a post-Round 10 selection for some bench depth or flex spot rotation. And if he holds onto the starting job, more power to you, value shoppers.
Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 100 overall | RB37): Kenneth Dixon is out (suspension, injury). Danny Woodhead is injured. That leaves Terrance West in line for a high-volume workload out of the gate after pushing for 200 carries in 2016. And he can catch the ball too, as he showed last year with 34 receptions on 44 targets. The Ravens would obviously like Woodhead to be their pass-catching back, but he's got question marks given his age (32) and injury history coming off a season-ending knee injury. He is already dealing with a hamstring issue that's kept him sidelined during preseason action. Even with Woodhead healthy, West's volume should remain in the 200-touch range at a minimum and he projects as the team's goal-line option too -- he saw 63.6 percent of Baltimore's rush attempts inside the five-yard line last year. When the chance presents itself to draft a running back with West's volume upside, even in a mediocre rushing offense, it's worth investing in.
Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 96 overall | WR38): So maybe Pierre Garcon's fantasy value took a hit moving from a high-flying Washington offense to, well, San Francisco. But it shouldn't take this much of a hit. Garcon led Washington receivers a season ago in targets (114) and receiving yards (1,041) and finished the year as fantasy's WR32. He wasn't single-handedly winning your week, but his production was pretty consistent, especially down the stretch. If nothing else, he gets a target share upgrade as the No. 1 in San Francisco. The 49ers new head coach, Kyle Shanahan, targeted Garcon in free agency as the two have an affluent history together statistically. In 2013 when Shanahan was the OC in Washington, Garcon was force-fed 181 targets and hauled in a career-high 113 receptions for 1,346 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the fantasy WR13 that year (WR11 in PPR). The dude hasn't missed a game since 2012, so he's as durable as they come. When you can draft a wideout in the 10th round who has averaged 116 targets, 70 receptions, 881 yards and five touchdowns per season since 2009, you slide that man to the top of your queue and laugh in the face of your competitors once you roster him.
Rishard Matthews, WR, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 107 overall | WR48): After a nine-touchdown season in which he collected nearly 1,000 yards, Rishard Matthews is getting disrespected in fantasy drafts this year. There's reason to be excited about Tennesse's additions of rookie Corey Davis (19 scores in his final collegiate season) and red zone specialist Eric Decker. But Davis has been sidelined for nearly all of August with a hamstring injury and Decker has a new ankle injury. With Davis missing valuable preseason reps and Decker's durability in question, Matthews could push to lead the team in targets again after seeing 108 last year. It's unlikely he sees nine touchdowns again, but you're not looking for that kind of production in the double-digit rounds of your fantasy draft. He's a steal at his current value and should be able to put up WR3 numbers at worst.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 101overall | RB38): The Panthers veteran running back has collected 200-plus carries in each of the last two seasons, and has finished as a top 25 fantasy RB in each, but you can get him in your fantasy draft in Round 10 or later. Bargain hunters can thank the Christian McCaffrey hype for Stewart's depressed ADP this year. McCaffrey is as talented as running backs come and will likely be a huge factor in fantasy. But Stewart is still going to get hefty volume and should continue to be a monster around the goal line. Stewart's 40 red zone rush attempts a season ago was enough to rank him fifth in the NFL among running backs. And 16 of those came inside the five-yard line which was good enough for 69.6 percent of the team's total carries in that range. So, we have a guy with 200-touch upside, who punched in nine of his 16 goal-line attempts that you can draft in the late rounds? Sign me up! Excuse me, I was here first, get in line please.
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 112 overall | RB43): From what we've seen this preseason, the Seattle backfield is one of the most unclear situations in the league. Eddie Lacy has not impressed, but at least he's healthy. The same cannot be said about C.J. Prosise who already tweaked his groin and can't seem to avoid injury, while Thomas Rawls is dealing with what the team is calling a "minor" ankle injury. But at the end of the day, Rawls is the best running back on the Seahawks roster. He's falling in drafts because of an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, so the preseason ankle injury is a concern. Coach Pete Carroll said earlier this week that if it was regular season, Rawls would be pushing to start which is a positive sign for his long-term outlook. We saw Rawls break out in the second half of 2015 in place of an injured Marshawn Lynch and despite his lack of production last year he still owns a career 4.4 yards per carry average. The fact that he had the chance to split first team reps with Lacy in camp and preseason action says the team wants to use him early and often. Lacy is more of a plodder while Rawls can explode through the line and wiggle away from defenders with his violent running style. He's the best bargain in Seattle's backfield with the easiest path to playing time as long as he can get the ankle issue cleared up.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 149 overall | WR52): When you can get a Saints wide receiver for free in a fantasy draft, you throw that dart. Ted Ginn was added by New Orleans, not exactly to replace Brandin Cooks, but to fill the role of a deep threat for Drew Brees. Cooks ate up 117 targets last year, some of which will likely be distributed to Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and Coby Fleener. But Ginn will get his, too. Is Ginn susceptible to drops that will want to make you quit fantasy football altogether? Yep. But he's also capable of scoring long touchdowns too. In fact, just last year in Carolina, the veteran scored on receptions of 88, 55, 40 and 38 yards. And while he is getting up there in age at 32, he still created the second-most yards of separation when pressed at the line of scrimmage in 2016, according to NextGenStats. He still has his speed and can burn defenders in man coverage, and if he gets behind a corner you can bet Brees is going to find him open downfield. With Brees among the league leaders in pass attempts frequently, his top three targets have absorbed at least 100 targets each in the last two seasons. Ginn should be able to benefit from this volume though his week-to-week consistency will be volatile. Still, you can't go wrong taking him if he's still on the board in Round 15.
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 175 overall | TE19): Go ahead and call me a broken record if you'd like; I've been pounding the table for Cameron Brate the entire offseason. With all of the attention on rookie O.J. Howard, who is a freakish athlete, but all the news out of Bucs camp this summer has pointed to the rookie focusing on being a blocking tight end in Year 1. Brate has an undeniable connection with quarterback Jameis Winston and there is trust between the two in the red zone. In fact, 20 percent of Brate's 81 targets last season came in the red zone, leading to eight touchdown grabs, tied for most at tight end in 2016. He's basically a low-end TE1 that you can get for free in redraft formats, so why wouldn't you?
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 57 overall | WR26): A player who ranks highest in ADP on this list, Kelvin Benjamin needs to be owned at his current cost. He's notched 100-plus targets and over 60 receptions in each of his last two healthy seasons for the Panthers and led the team with 15 red zone targets in 2016. There was negative buzz in the offseason surrounding Benjamin because of conditioning issues, but he is clearly in great shape during the preseason and that's been reflected in his high level of production. With 106 yards on six receptions and two touchdowns through three preseason games, Benjamin should be a focal point for Cam Newton in the passing game. Not to mention his size advantage. At 6-foot-5 he towers over most defenders, especially in the end zone. Benajmin is not going to burn anyone on a go-route, but he can high-point a catch and gain yards after with his toughness and ability to shed tacklers on the run. If you're drafting him as your flex wideout in Round 6, your fantasy roster is already in amazing shape. Robert Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins (ADP: 88 overall | RB35): A underwhelming end to 2016 followed by a less-than-impressive preseason has Rob Kelley's fantasy value depressed in a major way. Many draft pundits believe rookie back Samaje Perine is in line to steal the job from Kelley, but he hasn't made much headway thus far. Kelley, a rookie last season, only honed his skillset this offseason and lost a few pounds too, according to reports. At least early on, Kelley should be the team's primary back, and while he won't get much work in the passing game, he'll get all of the goal line looks. Ball security and consistently gaining positive yardage are two attributes that have kept Kelley on the field frequently for Washington. He's well worth a post-Round 10 selection for some bench depth or flex spot rotation. And if he holds onto the starting job, more power to you, value shoppers.
Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 100 overall | RB37): Kenneth Dixon is out (suspension, injury). Danny Woodhead is injured. That leaves Terrance West in line for a high-volume workload out of the gate after pushing for 200 carries in 2016. And he can catch the ball too, as he showed last year with 34 receptions on 44 targets. The Ravens would obviously like Woodhead to be their pass-catching back, but he's got question marks given his age (32) and injury history coming off a season-ending knee injury. He is already dealing with a hamstring issue that's kept him sidelined during preseason action. Even with Woodhead healthy, West's volume should remain in the 200-touch range at a minimum and he projects as the team's goal-line option too -- he saw 63.6 percent of Baltimore's rush attempts inside the five-yard line last year. When the chance presents itself to draft a running back with West's volume upside, even in a mediocre rushing offense, it's worth investing in.
Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 96 overall | WR38): So maybe Pierre Garcon's fantasy value took a hit moving from a high-flying Washington offense to, well, San Francisco. But it shouldn't take this much of a hit. Garcon led Washington receivers a season ago in targets (114) and receiving yards (1,041) and finished the year as fantasy's WR32. He wasn't single-handedly winning your week, but his production was pretty consistent, especially down the stretch. If nothing else, he gets a target share upgrade as the No. 1 in San Francisco. The 49ers new head coach, Kyle Shanahan, targeted Garcon in free agency as the two have an affluent history together statistically. In 2013 when Shanahan was the OC in Washington, Garcon was force-fed 181 targets and hauled in a career-high 113 receptions for 1,346 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the fantasy WR13 that year (WR11 in PPR). The dude hasn't missed a game since 2012, so he's as durable as they come. When you can draft a wideout in the 10th round who has averaged 116 targets, 70 receptions, 881 yards and five touchdowns per season since 2009, you slide that man to the top of your queue and laugh in the face of your competitors once you roster him.
Rishard Matthews, WR, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 107 overall | WR48): After a nine-touchdown season in which he collected nearly 1,000 yards, Rishard Matthews is getting disrespected in fantasy drafts this year. There's reason to be excited about Tennesse's additions of rookie Corey Davis (19 scores in his final collegiate season) and red zone specialist Eric Decker. But Davis has been sidelined for nearly all of August with a hamstring injury and Decker has a new ankle injury. With Davis missing valuable preseason reps and Decker's durability in question, Matthews could push to lead the team in targets again after seeing 108 last year. It's unlikely he sees nine touchdowns again, but you're not looking for that kind of production in the double-digit rounds of your fantasy draft. He's a steal at his current value and should be able to put up WR3 numbers at worst.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 101overall | RB38): The Panthers veteran running back has collected 200-plus carries in each of the last two seasons, and has finished as a top 25 fantasy RB in each, but you can get him in your fantasy draft in Round 10 or later. Bargain hunters can thank the Christian McCaffrey hype for Stewart's depressed ADP this year. McCaffrey is as talented as running backs come and will likely be a huge factor in fantasy. But Stewart is still going to get hefty volume and should continue to be a monster around the goal line. Stewart's 40 red zone rush attempts a season ago was enough to rank him fifth in the NFL among running backs. And 16 of those came inside the five-yard line which was good enough for 69.6 percent of the team's total carries in that range. So, we have a guy with 200-touch upside, who punched in nine of his 16 goal-line attempts that you can draft in the late rounds? Sign me up! Excuse me, I was here first, get in line please.
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 112 overall | RB43): From what we've seen this preseason, the Seattle backfield is one of the most unclear situations in the league. Eddie Lacy has not impressed, but at least he's healthy. The same cannot be said about C.J. Prosise who already tweaked his groin and can't seem to avoid injury, while Thomas Rawls is dealing with what the team is calling a "minor" ankle injury. But at the end of the day, Rawls is the best running back on the Seahawks roster. He's falling in drafts because of an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, so the preseason ankle injury is a concern. Coach Pete Carroll said earlier this week that if it was regular season, Rawls would be pushing to start which is a positive sign for his long-term outlook. We saw Rawls break out in the second half of 2015 in place of an injured Marshawn Lynch and despite his lack of production last year he still owns a career 4.4 yards per carry average. The fact that he had the chance to split first team reps with Lacy in camp and preseason action says the team wants to use him early and often. Lacy is more of a plodder while Rawls can explode through the line and wiggle away from defenders with his violent running style. He's the best bargain in Seattle's backfield with the easiest path to playing time as long as he can get the ankle issue cleared up.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 149 overall | WR52): When you can get a Saints wide receiver for free in a fantasy draft, you throw that dart. Ted Ginn was added by New Orleans, not exactly to replace Brandin Cooks, but to fill the role of a deep threat for Drew Brees. Cooks ate up 117 targets last year, some of which will likely be distributed to Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and Coby Fleener. But Ginn will get his, too. Is Ginn susceptible to drops that will want to make you quit fantasy football altogether? Yep. But he's also capable of scoring long touchdowns too. In fact, just last year in Carolina, the veteran scored on receptions of 88, 55, 40 and 38 yards. And while he is getting up there in age at 32, he still created the second-most yards of separation when pressed at the line of scrimmage in 2016, according to NextGenStats. He still has his speed and can burn defenders in man coverage, and if he gets behind a corner you can bet Brees is going to find him open downfield. With Brees among the league leaders in pass attempts frequently, his top three targets have absorbed at least 100 targets each in the last two seasons. Ginn should be able to benefit from this volume though his week-to-week consistency will be volatile. Still, you can't go wrong taking him if he's still on the board in Round 15.
Cameron Brate, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 175 overall | TE19): Go ahead and call me a broken record if you'd like; I've been pounding the table for Cameron Brate the entire offseason. With all of the attention on rookie O.J. Howard, who is a freakish athlete, but all the news out of Bucs camp this summer has pointed to the rookie focusing on being a blocking tight end in Year 1. Brate has an undeniable connection with quarterback Jameis Winston and there is trust between the two in the red zone. In fact, 20 percent of Brate's 81 targets last season came in the red zone, leading to eight touchdown grabs, tied for most at tight end in 2016. He's basically a low-end TE1 that you can get for free in redraft formats, so why wouldn't you?
10 lists of 10: Breakout candidates, sleepers, rookies and the best team names.
Twitter gives you 140 characters. Snapchat gives you 10 seconds. And if my kids are any indication, you get two seconds to impress on TV before they keep flipping. We are a short-attention-span, slideshow-worshipping, list-loving society. So in honor of that, it is an annual preseason tradition.
These are 10 lists ... of 10.
List 1: 10 players who are not currently being drafted as starters in ESPN.com leagues (top 10 QB/TE or top 20 RB/WR) that I believe will finish as such.
1. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (current ADP: QB12): So you're telling me that the most efficient red zone quarterback (since he entered the NFL), who added the most efficient red zone receiver (in terms of PPR points per game since 2012) and was QB7 before he got hurt last season (Weeks 1-15), isn't being considered a fantasy starter? According to Tristan H. Cockcroft's Consistency Ratings, Mariota is joined by the second-most-consistent TE over the past three seasons, and Rishard Matthews is back in the fold after breaking out (WR22) in his first season with the Titans. Did I mention that the Titans used two top-75 picks on receivers? Or that they have an elite offensive line?
2. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: QB17): I get there's nothing sexy or interesting about Rivers, but the guy always stays healthy and was QB14 last season throwing to no one. As I mentioned in Love/Hate this year, I am a Keenan Allen believer this year. And Rivers' career per-game numbers with Allen on the field are eye-popping. Over a 16-game stretch, you'd get 4,597 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams emerged last season, plus Antonio Gates is back for another year and maybe they get something out of Mike Williams ... a lot of toys for Rivers to play with.
3. Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: RB25): Well, he was going as RB31 a few days ago, but you spend 28 straight hours on TV talking a guy up apparently it helps his ADP. I get the "he's old and an injury risk" concern, but come on. He doesn't have to be his Hall of Fame self, he just needs to stay reasonably healthy. There are 247 non-Mark Ingram touches available from last season on a team that had 17 rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most rushing scores the past three seasons. He could fall into double-digit scores.
4. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (current ADP: RB37): Martin has looked good this preseason, we have certainly seen him do it before and I expect the Bucs' offense to take a major step forward this season. Combine Martin with RB48 Jacquizz Rodgers and you have the starting RB on a good offense for a 12th and a 14th, according to ESPN ADP. I love the price and the upside.
5. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (current ADP: RB40): I expect his ADP to continually rise, and after the second preseason game that hype will continue. But I still don't think he'll get drafted inside the top 20, and I know the Chiefs love him. Hunt is a true three-down back I've written about a lot (and I'm not alone), and he has received good reviews in pass protection from Andy Reid. He'll be involved from day one and this will be his job sooner than later.
6. Brandon Marshall, New York Giants (current ADP: WR 30): I could spit stats at you, like the fact that Marshall is the top-scoring fantasy receiver in the red zone since 2012 or that the Giants have dropped back to pass at the fourth-highest rate inside the red zone over the past two seasons. But after finishing as a top-three fantasy wideout in both his first year in Chicago and his first year with the Jets, I like Marshall's chances at a top-20 finish this season while playing with the best QB of his career.
7. Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers (current ADP: WR32): The upside is high. Like really high. Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in deep touchdown passes last season, despite missing a pair of games, relying on 5-foot-10 Antonio Brown to stretch the field and with a trio of receivers in Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Sammie Coates combining to drop 10.4 percent of their targets (league WR average: 3.5 percent). Bryant has the physical tools to fill that role in a massive way and that's not just me saying that, we've seen it. In 2014-15, Bryant ranked fourth in air yards per target and third in yards per reception. The receiver pool is deep this season and that means that you have no excuse to not draft Bryant as a starter, as your replacement-level player will be plenty productive to offset the risk taken.
8. Eric Decker, Tennessee Titans (current ADP: WR 38): Doubling down here ... if I'm going to be right on Mariota, it will be because his connection with Decker is as good as the numbers suggest. Since 2012, Decker has been among the most consistent wideouts in the NFL and is averaging 82 catches, 1,116 yards, and 10.6 touchdowns per 16 games. That's his average ... not his ceiling. The combination of high floor and ceiling is impossible to match at this point in the draft. Sign me up.
9. Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts (current ADP: TE13): I've talked him up a ton this preseason. We got a glimpse of Doyle's upside in Weeks 1-7 last season (when he was fourth among TEs in fantasy points) and with Dwayne Allen no longer eating up the red zone looks, Doyle has tons of potential with a quarterback and offensive coordinator that both love to utilize the tight end.
10. Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (current ADP: TE20): As Matt Ryan got even more comfortable in Kyle Shanahan's offense last season and Alex Mack helped solidify the offensive line, a funny thing happened. The Falcons started using the tight ends, as they accounted for 10 scores, twice as many as they tallied the previous two seasons combined. I'm not sure Hooper gets all of that action, but there's no more Jacob Tamme, and after a Super Bowl in which Hooper scored a touchdown, he might not get to top 10, but he will easily beat his current ADP.
Twitter gives you 140 characters. Snapchat gives you 10 seconds. And if my kids are any indication, you get two seconds to impress on TV before they keep flipping. We are a short-attention-span, slideshow-worshipping, list-loving society. So in honor of that, it is an annual preseason tradition.
These are 10 lists ... of 10.
List 1: 10 players who are not currently being drafted as starters in ESPN.com leagues (top 10 QB/TE or top 20 RB/WR) that I believe will finish as such.
1. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (current ADP: QB12): So you're telling me that the most efficient red zone quarterback (since he entered the NFL), who added the most efficient red zone receiver (in terms of PPR points per game since 2012) and was QB7 before he got hurt last season (Weeks 1-15), isn't being considered a fantasy starter? According to Tristan H. Cockcroft's Consistency Ratings, Mariota is joined by the second-most-consistent TE over the past three seasons, and Rishard Matthews is back in the fold after breaking out (WR22) in his first season with the Titans. Did I mention that the Titans used two top-75 picks on receivers? Or that they have an elite offensive line?
2. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: QB17): I get there's nothing sexy or interesting about Rivers, but the guy always stays healthy and was QB14 last season throwing to no one. As I mentioned in Love/Hate this year, I am a Keenan Allen believer this year. And Rivers' career per-game numbers with Allen on the field are eye-popping. Over a 16-game stretch, you'd get 4,597 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams emerged last season, plus Antonio Gates is back for another year and maybe they get something out of Mike Williams ... a lot of toys for Rivers to play with.
3. Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: RB25): Well, he was going as RB31 a few days ago, but you spend 28 straight hours on TV talking a guy up apparently it helps his ADP. I get the "he's old and an injury risk" concern, but come on. He doesn't have to be his Hall of Fame self, he just needs to stay reasonably healthy. There are 247 non-Mark Ingram touches available from last season on a team that had 17 rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most rushing scores the past three seasons. He could fall into double-digit scores.
4. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (current ADP: RB37): Martin has looked good this preseason, we have certainly seen him do it before and I expect the Bucs' offense to take a major step forward this season. Combine Martin with RB48 Jacquizz Rodgers and you have the starting RB on a good offense for a 12th and a 14th, according to ESPN ADP. I love the price and the upside.
5. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (current ADP: RB40): I expect his ADP to continually rise, and after the second preseason game that hype will continue. But I still don't think he'll get drafted inside the top 20, and I know the Chiefs love him. Hunt is a true three-down back I've written about a lot (and I'm not alone), and he has received good reviews in pass protection from Andy Reid. He'll be involved from day one and this will be his job sooner than later.
6. Brandon Marshall, New York Giants (current ADP: WR 30): I could spit stats at you, like the fact that Marshall is the top-scoring fantasy receiver in the red zone since 2012 or that the Giants have dropped back to pass at the fourth-highest rate inside the red zone over the past two seasons. But after finishing as a top-three fantasy wideout in both his first year in Chicago and his first year with the Jets, I like Marshall's chances at a top-20 finish this season while playing with the best QB of his career.
7. Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers (current ADP: WR32): The upside is high. Like really high. Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in deep touchdown passes last season, despite missing a pair of games, relying on 5-foot-10 Antonio Brown to stretch the field and with a trio of receivers in Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Sammie Coates combining to drop 10.4 percent of their targets (league WR average: 3.5 percent). Bryant has the physical tools to fill that role in a massive way and that's not just me saying that, we've seen it. In 2014-15, Bryant ranked fourth in air yards per target and third in yards per reception. The receiver pool is deep this season and that means that you have no excuse to not draft Bryant as a starter, as your replacement-level player will be plenty productive to offset the risk taken.
8. Eric Decker, Tennessee Titans (current ADP: WR 38): Doubling down here ... if I'm going to be right on Mariota, it will be because his connection with Decker is as good as the numbers suggest. Since 2012, Decker has been among the most consistent wideouts in the NFL and is averaging 82 catches, 1,116 yards, and 10.6 touchdowns per 16 games. That's his average ... not his ceiling. The combination of high floor and ceiling is impossible to match at this point in the draft. Sign me up.
9. Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts (current ADP: TE13): I've talked him up a ton this preseason. We got a glimpse of Doyle's upside in Weeks 1-7 last season (when he was fourth among TEs in fantasy points) and with Dwayne Allen no longer eating up the red zone looks, Doyle has tons of potential with a quarterback and offensive coordinator that both love to utilize the tight end.
10. Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (current ADP: TE20): As Matt Ryan got even more comfortable in Kyle Shanahan's offense last season and Alex Mack helped solidify the offensive line, a funny thing happened. The Falcons started using the tight ends, as they accounted for 10 scores, twice as many as they tallied the previous two seasons combined. I'm not sure Hooper gets all of that action, but there's no more Jacob Tamme, and after a Super Bowl in which Hooper scored a touchdown, he might not get to top 10, but he will easily beat his current ADP.
List 2: Ten leftover stats from my "100 Facts" column, among my favorites to write every year.
1. Jamison Crowder ranked fifth in fantasy points scored from the slot last season. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson accounted for 47.9 percent of non-Crowder Redskins fantasy points from the slot last season and are no longer in Washington.
2. Carson Wentz threw more passes than anyone in the second half of last season. The Eagles added Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith and get Lane Johnson back on the offensive line for the full season. His current ADP is QB16.
3. Bilal Powell was fourth in running back receptions last season. And he ranked third in yards per carry AFTER first contact.
4. In his first season with Sam Bradford, Kyle Rudolph caught 14 passes in the red zone. In the past five seasons, the only TEs with more such catches in a single season are Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed and Tony Gonzalez.
5. There were only four players in the league who saw more targets than T.Y. Hilton last season.
5a. But there were 49 players who saw more looks in goal-to-go situations.
6. The Broncos graded out 27th in pass protection, 30th (which means third highest) in off-target percentage and took fewer snaps than the average team last season. Demaryius Thomas still caught 90 balls for 1,083 yards and five scores (his fifth straight season reaching all of those thresholds) on his way to a WR16 finish in PPR leagues.
7. During the past five seasons, no rookie TE has scored more PPR points than Tim Wright. Wright's 141.3 points as a rookie in 2013 would have ranked as TE15 last season. In theory, Evan Engram (TE14) and O.J. Howard (TE15) would have to produce the best season by a rookie TE since Rob Gronkowski in 2010 to make good on their ADPs.
7a. Gronkowski produced 154.6 points as a rookie in 2010. That would have ranked as TE11 last season.
8. During the past three years, the second-most-targeted Green Bay Packer is averaging 1,058 yards and 11 touchdowns per season.
9. In the past two seasons, Tyler Eifert has missed 11 games. He still leads all tight ends in that time frame with 18 TDs. His current ADP is TE8.
10. If you remove Julio Jones' 300-yard, 48-point game from Week 4 last season, he averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in PPR last season in 13 games (he missed two because of injury). His 211.9 total points he scored outside of the 300-yard game would have ranked just ahead of WR22 Rishard Matthews' 211.5. If, instead of the 300-yard game, you gave Jones the 16.3 FPPG he averaged in the other 13 games, his 228.2 total points would have been just better than WR16 Demaryius Thomas (226.3). On a per-game basis, that 16.3 average would have ranked just ahead of WR9 Doug Baldwin's 15.85.
1. Jamison Crowder ranked fifth in fantasy points scored from the slot last season. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson accounted for 47.9 percent of non-Crowder Redskins fantasy points from the slot last season and are no longer in Washington.
2. Carson Wentz threw more passes than anyone in the second half of last season. The Eagles added Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith and get Lane Johnson back on the offensive line for the full season. His current ADP is QB16.
3. Bilal Powell was fourth in running back receptions last season. And he ranked third in yards per carry AFTER first contact.
4. In his first season with Sam Bradford, Kyle Rudolph caught 14 passes in the red zone. In the past five seasons, the only TEs with more such catches in a single season are Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed and Tony Gonzalez.
5. There were only four players in the league who saw more targets than T.Y. Hilton last season.
5a. But there were 49 players who saw more looks in goal-to-go situations.
6. The Broncos graded out 27th in pass protection, 30th (which means third highest) in off-target percentage and took fewer snaps than the average team last season. Demaryius Thomas still caught 90 balls for 1,083 yards and five scores (his fifth straight season reaching all of those thresholds) on his way to a WR16 finish in PPR leagues.
7. During the past five seasons, no rookie TE has scored more PPR points than Tim Wright. Wright's 141.3 points as a rookie in 2013 would have ranked as TE15 last season. In theory, Evan Engram (TE14) and O.J. Howard (TE15) would have to produce the best season by a rookie TE since Rob Gronkowski in 2010 to make good on their ADPs.
7a. Gronkowski produced 154.6 points as a rookie in 2010. That would have ranked as TE11 last season.
8. During the past three years, the second-most-targeted Green Bay Packer is averaging 1,058 yards and 11 touchdowns per season.
9. In the past two seasons, Tyler Eifert has missed 11 games. He still leads all tight ends in that time frame with 18 TDs. His current ADP is TE8.
10. If you remove Julio Jones' 300-yard, 48-point game from Week 4 last season, he averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in PPR last season in 13 games (he missed two because of injury). His 211.9 total points he scored outside of the 300-yard game would have ranked just ahead of WR22 Rishard Matthews' 211.5. If, instead of the 300-yard game, you gave Jones the 16.3 FPPG he averaged in the other 13 games, his 228.2 total points would have been just better than WR16 Demaryius Thomas (226.3). On a per-game basis, that 16.3 average would have ranked just ahead of WR9 Doug Baldwin's 15.85.
List 3: Ten rookies I would take, in order, in dynasty leagues.
1. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
5. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
8. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills
1. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
5. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
8. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills
List 4: The 10 best fantasy team names (that I can print!) I've heard this year. These are all from the amazing community on my Fantasy Life app.
1. Turn and Coughlin (jmgjr2017)
2. Here Today, Gone Aguayo (soyeljefe)
3. Fournetteflix and Chill (johnny_quid)
4. Krispy Kareem Donuts (txchief)
5. Mild Concussions (koreanry with an 06010 podcast joke)
6. Fournette About It (dembones)
7. Fake Drews (jrod1253)
8. The Dakstreet Boys (jedy)
9. Amazing Gase (lionsalldayipa)
10. Keenan and Mel (jjones6)
1. Turn and Coughlin (jmgjr2017)
2. Here Today, Gone Aguayo (soyeljefe)
3. Fournetteflix and Chill (johnny_quid)
4. Krispy Kareem Donuts (txchief)
5. Mild Concussions (koreanry with an 06010 podcast joke)
6. Fournette About It (dembones)
7. Fake Drews (jrod1253)
8. The Dakstreet Boys (jedy)
9. Amazing Gase (lionsalldayipa)
10. Keenan and Mel (jjones6)
List 5: Ten running backs going in the 10th round or later who have sneaky PPR value and can be used as an RB2 or flex, depending on league size.
NOTE: All references to rounds below are for 10-team leagues.
1. Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions: Obvious, but going in Round 10 (90th overall).
2. Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns: ADP will rise, but still a lot to like at 111th overall (12th round).
3. James White, New England Patriots: Super Bowl hero was top three in RB receptions, targets and receiving yards. Going in Round 12 due to "Patriots RB fears."
4. C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks: Needs to stay on the field, but there's no question about the talent or how Seattle wants to use him. Going in Round 14.
5. Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins: A crucial part of Washington's passing offense. He finished strong last season, averaging more than 11 points a game in his final four. Going in Round 15.
6. Shane Vereen, New York Giants: Forgotten after last year's injury-plagued season. He has a specific role on a pass-first offense and a reasonable path to significant playing time. Going undrafted.
7. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: Already penciled in as Drew Brees' third-down back. He's a true three-down talent behind two veterans who have struggled with health in their careers.
8. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: It's unlikely the Jags will have Leonard Fournette play on third downs initially, so Yeldon, who has caught 78.9 percent of his targets from Blake Bortles during his career (all other Jags have caught just 58.7 percent of his passes in that stretch), is the third-down beneficiary and basically free on draft day.
9. Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers: Juszczyk is a good pass-catcher, and he became the NFL's highest-paid fullback this offseason. After catching at least 37 balls in two straight seasons, he has been working out at tight end some and will absolutely have value this in deeper PPR leagues.
10. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears: As mentioned by Chris Mortensen on "The Fantasy Show" earlier this week, the Bears like what they have in Cohen and he should see 8 to 12 touches a game in relief of Jordan Howard.
NOTE: All references to rounds below are for 10-team leagues.
1. Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions: Obvious, but going in Round 10 (90th overall).
2. Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns: ADP will rise, but still a lot to like at 111th overall (12th round).
3. James White, New England Patriots: Super Bowl hero was top three in RB receptions, targets and receiving yards. Going in Round 12 due to "Patriots RB fears."
4. C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks: Needs to stay on the field, but there's no question about the talent or how Seattle wants to use him. Going in Round 14.
5. Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins: A crucial part of Washington's passing offense. He finished strong last season, averaging more than 11 points a game in his final four. Going in Round 15.
6. Shane Vereen, New York Giants: Forgotten after last year's injury-plagued season. He has a specific role on a pass-first offense and a reasonable path to significant playing time. Going undrafted.
7. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: Already penciled in as Drew Brees' third-down back. He's a true three-down talent behind two veterans who have struggled with health in their careers.
8. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: It's unlikely the Jags will have Leonard Fournette play on third downs initially, so Yeldon, who has caught 78.9 percent of his targets from Blake Bortles during his career (all other Jags have caught just 58.7 percent of his passes in that stretch), is the third-down beneficiary and basically free on draft day.
9. Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers: Juszczyk is a good pass-catcher, and he became the NFL's highest-paid fullback this offseason. After catching at least 37 balls in two straight seasons, he has been working out at tight end some and will absolutely have value this in deeper PPR leagues.
10. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears: As mentioned by Chris Mortensen on "The Fantasy Show" earlier this week, the Bears like what they have in Cohen and he should see 8 to 12 touches a game in relief of Jordan Howard.
List 6: Ten surprisingly consistent (or not) players, based on Tristan H. Cockcroft's consistency ratings.
1. During the past three seasons, the Colts' Andrew Luck has been starter-worthy 52.1 percent of the time, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. In that stretch, he has produced seven "stud" (top-two QB in a given week) performances and just four "stiffs" (outside the top 20 in a particular week) -- far and away the best rate in the NFL. Because of injury concerns, he's going in the ninth round.
2. Todd Gurley didn't have a single "stiff" (outside the top 50 running backs) performance last season, something that might not seem like a major accomplishment, but DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy and Devonta Freeman were all credited with one last season. The Gurley is tied with McCoy for most games with 16-plus carries since he assumed the lead role in the Rams' backfield (Week 4 of 2015), and that volume gives him a nice floor, especially in a revamped offense under new coach Sean McVay.
3. Tennessee's DeMarco Murray has quietly graded out as the most consistent running back not named Ezekiel Elliott over the past three years, and that says something given that he has been performing at such a high level (30.2 more PPR points and 58.2 more non-PPR points than any other running back in that span). That might be surprising considering he's played for three teams in that time frame, but he leads RBs in both top-fives (14) and top-25s (37) over that stretch.
4. Murray's new Titans teammate, Eric Decker, has proved himself to be nothing short of an elite red zone option. Since 2014, Decker has more top-25 finishes and fewer finishes outside of the top 50 than fellow receiver A.J. Green despite, shall we say, inconsistent quarterback play. Now this red zone monster finds himself with the most efficient red zone QB since 2015.
5. Despite missing 10 games and being banged up for other games, Rob Gronkowski has 13 top-two tight end finishes during the past three seasons. No other TE has more than seven. It might require patience during the week, but the advantage he gives you when active over the rest of the position is unlike anything else in fantasy football.
6. Russell Wilson had four "stiff" performances (outside top 20 QBs) in 2014 and 2015 combined, but last season, he recorded a league-high seven! The Seahawks signal-caller had just five touchdown passes at the end of October, proceeded to throw five touchdowns during the next two weeks, followed that up with a four-game stretch that saw him fire three TDs and eight interceptions and promptly finished the season winning you your league (if you got there) with eight TD passes and one interception over the final three weeks. Quite a ride!
7. Mark Ingram was not worth a spot in your starting lineup nine different times last season, and he had a pair of weeks in which he lost you your matchup with a finish outside the top 50 RBs. The downward-trending carry count is a bad sign for consistent production and with Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara joining the Saints' backfield, it is hard to consider Ingram a "safe" option, as some like to proclaim.
8. Despite playing for one of the most consistent offenses in football and posting consistent annual numbers, new Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks is a tough one to get a handle on weekly. Last season, Kenny Stills actually had more top-25 WR finishes than Cooks, but Cooks also had as many top-five finishes as Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas and Terrelle Pryor Sr. put together. Boom or bust last season, does the consistency pick up now that he is part of a juggernaut offense that is capable of featuring a different player each week, or will it suffer even more?
9. In addition to questionable health, receiver Sammy Watkins has posted more weekly finishes outside of the top 50 (17) than he has inside of the top 25 over the past three seasons (15) and recently joined a team in the Rams headed by a second-year quarterback in Jared Goff, whose skill set doesn't seem to match Watkins' strengths.
10. The Raiders' Amari Cooper had seven games last season in which he finished as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver but also had five games in which he finished outside the top 50.
1. During the past three seasons, the Colts' Andrew Luck has been starter-worthy 52.1 percent of the time, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. In that stretch, he has produced seven "stud" (top-two QB in a given week) performances and just four "stiffs" (outside the top 20 in a particular week) -- far and away the best rate in the NFL. Because of injury concerns, he's going in the ninth round.
2. Todd Gurley didn't have a single "stiff" (outside the top 50 running backs) performance last season, something that might not seem like a major accomplishment, but DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy and Devonta Freeman were all credited with one last season. The Gurley is tied with McCoy for most games with 16-plus carries since he assumed the lead role in the Rams' backfield (Week 4 of 2015), and that volume gives him a nice floor, especially in a revamped offense under new coach Sean McVay.
3. Tennessee's DeMarco Murray has quietly graded out as the most consistent running back not named Ezekiel Elliott over the past three years, and that says something given that he has been performing at such a high level (30.2 more PPR points and 58.2 more non-PPR points than any other running back in that span). That might be surprising considering he's played for three teams in that time frame, but he leads RBs in both top-fives (14) and top-25s (37) over that stretch.
4. Murray's new Titans teammate, Eric Decker, has proved himself to be nothing short of an elite red zone option. Since 2014, Decker has more top-25 finishes and fewer finishes outside of the top 50 than fellow receiver A.J. Green despite, shall we say, inconsistent quarterback play. Now this red zone monster finds himself with the most efficient red zone QB since 2015.
5. Despite missing 10 games and being banged up for other games, Rob Gronkowski has 13 top-two tight end finishes during the past three seasons. No other TE has more than seven. It might require patience during the week, but the advantage he gives you when active over the rest of the position is unlike anything else in fantasy football.
6. Russell Wilson had four "stiff" performances (outside top 20 QBs) in 2014 and 2015 combined, but last season, he recorded a league-high seven! The Seahawks signal-caller had just five touchdown passes at the end of October, proceeded to throw five touchdowns during the next two weeks, followed that up with a four-game stretch that saw him fire three TDs and eight interceptions and promptly finished the season winning you your league (if you got there) with eight TD passes and one interception over the final three weeks. Quite a ride!
7. Mark Ingram was not worth a spot in your starting lineup nine different times last season, and he had a pair of weeks in which he lost you your matchup with a finish outside the top 50 RBs. The downward-trending carry count is a bad sign for consistent production and with Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara joining the Saints' backfield, it is hard to consider Ingram a "safe" option, as some like to proclaim.
8. Despite playing for one of the most consistent offenses in football and posting consistent annual numbers, new Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks is a tough one to get a handle on weekly. Last season, Kenny Stills actually had more top-25 WR finishes than Cooks, but Cooks also had as many top-five finishes as Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas and Terrelle Pryor Sr. put together. Boom or bust last season, does the consistency pick up now that he is part of a juggernaut offense that is capable of featuring a different player each week, or will it suffer even more?
9. In addition to questionable health, receiver Sammy Watkins has posted more weekly finishes outside of the top 50 (17) than he has inside of the top 25 over the past three seasons (15) and recently joined a team in the Rams headed by a second-year quarterback in Jared Goff, whose skill set doesn't seem to match Watkins' strengths.
10. The Raiders' Amari Cooper had seven games last season in which he finished as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver but also had five games in which he finished outside the top 50.
List 7: More team names suggested to me, this time by my followers on Twitter.
1. Pour one out for Mahomes (@big_jphil)
2. Dez-pacito (@jonserventi)
3. Cobbfefe (@chris_schieffer)
4. Trust the Prosise (@RojoJawnson)
5. Remember the Tight Ends (@at_trevorjames)
6. Hit me with your Prescott (@diamndawg)
7. Golladay Inn Express (@thebismofunyun)
8. Abdullah Oblongata (@TonyG804)
9. Cooterific (@evan_rens)
10. Odell, Motel, Golladay Ginn (@deanis19)
1. Pour one out for Mahomes (@big_jphil)
2. Dez-pacito (@jonserventi)
3. Cobbfefe (@chris_schieffer)
4. Trust the Prosise (@RojoJawnson)
5. Remember the Tight Ends (@at_trevorjames)
6. Hit me with your Prescott (@diamndawg)
7. Golladay Inn Express (@thebismofunyun)
8. Abdullah Oblongata (@TonyG804)
9. Cooterific (@evan_rens)
10. Odell, Motel, Golladay Ginn (@deanis19)
List 8: Ten boring, old guys who won't elicit "oohs" when you draft them but who will be very solid and outperform their current ADP.
1. Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: QB18): He enters 2017 having posted four consecutive seasons with at least 4,200 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns and should have a healthy Keenan Allen at receiver to help bolster those numbers.
2. Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (current ADP: QB19): Can you list for me all of the quarterbacks over the past two seasons with more passing yards and more passing touchdowns than Palmer? Drew Brees and the aforementioned Rivers. That's it and that's all. With RB David Johnson wanting to catch 100 balls and Larry Fitzgerald (keep reading) continuing to do Larry Fitzgerald things at receiver, a now-healthy Palmer should finish closer to 2015's top five than last year's QB19 disaster.
3. Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: RB19, sixth round): A hamstring injury should continue to lower his ADP and, yes, while there is certainly health risk, the 32-year-old enters a Ravens offense that not only lost its projected starting running back but one that also counted on its backfield for 26.9 percent of completions last season. Woodhead has a pair of 75-plus catch seasons on his résumé, and it wouldn't be shocking if he added a third in what appears to be a perfect match.
4. Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: RB25): With more than 200 non-Mark Ingram touches from last season available, the team that had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and Drew Brees as its quarterback should allow Peterson to run without seeing a bunch of eight-man fronts, as he has his entire career.
5. Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets (current ADP: RB40): With not much else on the Jets roster, expect Forte to touch the ball a lot. As much as Bilal Powell? No, but the guy has never been worse than RB21 in fantasy, and now he's going as RB40 in the 12th round! He's not dead; he's just a Jet, which isn't the same thing, I promise. I did research.
6. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants (current ADP: WR32): Assuming his injury is nothing serious -- podcast fans know you can't teach 6-foot-5 -- the fact that the Giants rely on a pair of sub-6-foot receivers means Marshall should be called on often in both field-stretching situations and when in the red zone (where he happens to be the top-producing fantasy WR since 2012). The G-men love to spread out defenses with their three-receiver sets; good luck in man coverage against Marshall. Big bounce-back year coming for the veteran wideout.
7. Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers (current ADP: WR33): I've written and spoken about him a lot, but after some early buzz, the interest seems to have cooled on the 31-year-old Garcon. I'm still a believer. He got the big deal because of two coaches fighting over him in the offseason: Former Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and another former Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay. Garcon went with Shanahan, who gave him in excess of 180 targets in 2013 and will now force-feed him the ball once again in an offense that will need to throw a lot.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (current ADP: WR19): The date was Jan. 3, 2015. The Cardinals had just lost a playoff game to the Panthers with QB Ryan Lindley racking up all of 82 passing yards, and Fitzgerald was able to pull down just three of eight targets. After 11 great years, was his career over? He missed a pair of games and scored only two touchdowns that regular season -- the writing was on the wall. Well, all he has done since is rattle off the two highest catch totals of his career, ranking him behind only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones in receptions during that stretch. With some of the best hands in the NFL and a veteran QB at the helm, Fitz is an unsexy but proven PPR threat going in the fifth or sixth round.
9. Mike Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: WR42): There are times when you think to yourself: No one is listening. I've been banging the table for the 31-year-old Wallace since May and yet his ADP continues to hover in the 40s (11th round). He has been a top-30 fantasy wideout in seven of his eight seasons in the NFL (including last season in Baltimore), and had the most targets last season of anyone still left on the team. More than 300 targets from last season are available, and just how many do you think Jeremy Maclin actually gets? If Joe Flacco is going to miss regular-season games, OK, I get it, but Wallace has a shot at 150 targets in his second year on the team that threw the ball the most the past two seasons. I like his chances to improve a little on last year's four touchdowns.
10. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: WR55): Did you know Ginn is 32? Neither did I, but while podcast fans know Ginn by another name, the fact is this list is about older players who could help win you your league -- not a list of actually good football players. So, while there is a list of stuff Ginn does not do well, he is still legitimately fast. And now he goes to a QB who ranks first in completions, fourth in completion percentage and fourth in touchdowns on deep passes (15-plus air yards) over the past three seasons. In that span, the majority of Ginn's receiving touchdowns (eight out of 14) have come on such passes. He will absolutely beat that ADP, and I love him in "best ball" leagues this year.
1. Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: QB18): He enters 2017 having posted four consecutive seasons with at least 4,200 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns and should have a healthy Keenan Allen at receiver to help bolster those numbers.
2. Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (current ADP: QB19): Can you list for me all of the quarterbacks over the past two seasons with more passing yards and more passing touchdowns than Palmer? Drew Brees and the aforementioned Rivers. That's it and that's all. With RB David Johnson wanting to catch 100 balls and Larry Fitzgerald (keep reading) continuing to do Larry Fitzgerald things at receiver, a now-healthy Palmer should finish closer to 2015's top five than last year's QB19 disaster.
3. Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: RB19, sixth round): A hamstring injury should continue to lower his ADP and, yes, while there is certainly health risk, the 32-year-old enters a Ravens offense that not only lost its projected starting running back but one that also counted on its backfield for 26.9 percent of completions last season. Woodhead has a pair of 75-plus catch seasons on his résumé, and it wouldn't be shocking if he added a third in what appears to be a perfect match.
4. Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: RB25): With more than 200 non-Mark Ingram touches from last season available, the team that had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and Drew Brees as its quarterback should allow Peterson to run without seeing a bunch of eight-man fronts, as he has his entire career.
5. Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets (current ADP: RB40): With not much else on the Jets roster, expect Forte to touch the ball a lot. As much as Bilal Powell? No, but the guy has never been worse than RB21 in fantasy, and now he's going as RB40 in the 12th round! He's not dead; he's just a Jet, which isn't the same thing, I promise. I did research.
6. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants (current ADP: WR32): Assuming his injury is nothing serious -- podcast fans know you can't teach 6-foot-5 -- the fact that the Giants rely on a pair of sub-6-foot receivers means Marshall should be called on often in both field-stretching situations and when in the red zone (where he happens to be the top-producing fantasy WR since 2012). The G-men love to spread out defenses with their three-receiver sets; good luck in man coverage against Marshall. Big bounce-back year coming for the veteran wideout.
7. Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers (current ADP: WR33): I've written and spoken about him a lot, but after some early buzz, the interest seems to have cooled on the 31-year-old Garcon. I'm still a believer. He got the big deal because of two coaches fighting over him in the offseason: Former Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and another former Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay. Garcon went with Shanahan, who gave him in excess of 180 targets in 2013 and will now force-feed him the ball once again in an offense that will need to throw a lot.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (current ADP: WR19): The date was Jan. 3, 2015. The Cardinals had just lost a playoff game to the Panthers with QB Ryan Lindley racking up all of 82 passing yards, and Fitzgerald was able to pull down just three of eight targets. After 11 great years, was his career over? He missed a pair of games and scored only two touchdowns that regular season -- the writing was on the wall. Well, all he has done since is rattle off the two highest catch totals of his career, ranking him behind only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones in receptions during that stretch. With some of the best hands in the NFL and a veteran QB at the helm, Fitz is an unsexy but proven PPR threat going in the fifth or sixth round.
9. Mike Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: WR42): There are times when you think to yourself: No one is listening. I've been banging the table for the 31-year-old Wallace since May and yet his ADP continues to hover in the 40s (11th round). He has been a top-30 fantasy wideout in seven of his eight seasons in the NFL (including last season in Baltimore), and had the most targets last season of anyone still left on the team. More than 300 targets from last season are available, and just how many do you think Jeremy Maclin actually gets? If Joe Flacco is going to miss regular-season games, OK, I get it, but Wallace has a shot at 150 targets in his second year on the team that threw the ball the most the past two seasons. I like his chances to improve a little on last year's four touchdowns.
10. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: WR55): Did you know Ginn is 32? Neither did I, but while podcast fans know Ginn by another name, the fact is this list is about older players who could help win you your league -- not a list of actually good football players. So, while there is a list of stuff Ginn does not do well, he is still legitimately fast. And now he goes to a QB who ranks first in completions, fourth in completion percentage and fourth in touchdowns on deep passes (15-plus air yards) over the past three seasons. In that span, the majority of Ginn's receiving touchdowns (eight out of 14) have come on such passes. He will absolutely beat that ADP, and I love him in "best ball" leagues this year.
List 9: Ten games (plus seven more) that allow you to get a top-five fantasy QB out of picks in Rounds 11 and 12.
OK, so you know Ben Roethlisberger (health, road splits) and Matthew Stafford (pace of play, outdoor splits) both made my "hate" list, but since that list has come out, both have seen their ADPs drop. Love/Hate is always about ADP, so if I were writing the list today, neither guy would be on it based on the current ADP. Stafford averages 19.89 points in his past 16 indoor games. Roethlisberger averages 23.96 points in his past 16 home games. So, if you blew off QB early and then drafted both of them in Rounds 11 and 12, you could do something like this with your lineup this season:
1. Week 1: Stafford vs. Arizona
2. Week 2: Roethlisberger vs. Minnesota
3. Week 3: Stafford vs. Atlanta
4. Week 4: Stafford at Minnesota (tough matchup but still indoors)
5. Week 5: Roethlisberger vs. Jacksonville
6. Week 6: Stafford at New Orleans
7. Week 7: Roethlisberger vs. Cincinnati
8. Week 8: Stafford vs. Pittsburgh
9. Week 9: Stafford at Green Bay (he's averaging 19.56 points in his past four games at Lambeau Field)
10. Week 10: Stafford vs. Cleveland
11. Week 11: Roethlisberger vs. Tennessee
12. Week 12: Roethlisberger vs. Green Bay
13. Week 13: Joe Flacco vs. Detroit. (OK, so we have to veer off here. At this point, Stafford doesn't work, so you can either trade him or cut him for Flacco, who should be available, averages 39 percent more points at home, and the Lions defense was third worst against quarterbacks last season. I expect them to be a plus matchup again this year.)
14. Week 14: Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore
15. Week 15: Roethlisberger vs. New England
16. Week 16: Flacco vs. Indianapolis
17. Week 17: Roethlisberger vs. Cleveland
If you add up the per-game averages for Stafford in a dome the past 16 games, Stafford at Green Bay the past four years, Roethlisberger at home the past 16 games and Flacco's 17.43 points per game at home the past five years and divide by 17, you get a QB that should average 21.55 points a game. Last year, Tom Brady was QB3 averaging 21.55 points a game. Loosey-goosey math, and these are all just based on averages, but still -- interesting, no?
OK, so you know Ben Roethlisberger (health, road splits) and Matthew Stafford (pace of play, outdoor splits) both made my "hate" list, but since that list has come out, both have seen their ADPs drop. Love/Hate is always about ADP, so if I were writing the list today, neither guy would be on it based on the current ADP. Stafford averages 19.89 points in his past 16 indoor games. Roethlisberger averages 23.96 points in his past 16 home games. So, if you blew off QB early and then drafted both of them in Rounds 11 and 12, you could do something like this with your lineup this season:
1. Week 1: Stafford vs. Arizona
2. Week 2: Roethlisberger vs. Minnesota
3. Week 3: Stafford vs. Atlanta
4. Week 4: Stafford at Minnesota (tough matchup but still indoors)
5. Week 5: Roethlisberger vs. Jacksonville
6. Week 6: Stafford at New Orleans
7. Week 7: Roethlisberger vs. Cincinnati
8. Week 8: Stafford vs. Pittsburgh
9. Week 9: Stafford at Green Bay (he's averaging 19.56 points in his past four games at Lambeau Field)
10. Week 10: Stafford vs. Cleveland
11. Week 11: Roethlisberger vs. Tennessee
12. Week 12: Roethlisberger vs. Green Bay
13. Week 13: Joe Flacco vs. Detroit. (OK, so we have to veer off here. At this point, Stafford doesn't work, so you can either trade him or cut him for Flacco, who should be available, averages 39 percent more points at home, and the Lions defense was third worst against quarterbacks last season. I expect them to be a plus matchup again this year.)
14. Week 14: Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore
15. Week 15: Roethlisberger vs. New England
16. Week 16: Flacco vs. Indianapolis
17. Week 17: Roethlisberger vs. Cleveland
If you add up the per-game averages for Stafford in a dome the past 16 games, Stafford at Green Bay the past four years, Roethlisberger at home the past 16 games and Flacco's 17.43 points per game at home the past five years and divide by 17, you get a QB that should average 21.55 points a game. Last year, Tom Brady was QB3 averaging 21.55 points a game. Loosey-goosey math, and these are all just based on averages, but still -- interesting, no?
List 10: Ten final team names.
1. I'm just here so I don't get last place (@fsilva_bvoy)
2. Good Kamara (@JamesMKE)
3. Hooked on a Thielen (@sstauff24)
4. I Gotta Thielen (@kjwetherille)
5. 13 Reasons Ajayi (@JoelInOne)
6. House Tyrell (@Tyler_J_Worden)
7. Bye-week Curious (@Pelley9)
8. 99 problems but a Mitch ain't one (multiple)
9. Watch me Zay Zay (@az_cat_chris)
10. Yo Mahomes Smell Ya Later (@kcford76)
1. I'm just here so I don't get last place (@fsilva_bvoy)
2. Good Kamara (@JamesMKE)
3. Hooked on a Thielen (@sstauff24)
4. I Gotta Thielen (@kjwetherille)
5. 13 Reasons Ajayi (@JoelInOne)
6. House Tyrell (@Tyler_J_Worden)
7. Bye-week Curious (@Pelley9)
8. 99 problems but a Mitch ain't one (multiple)
9. Watch me Zay Zay (@az_cat_chris)
10. Yo Mahomes Smell Ya Later (@kcford76)
Josh McCown named New York Jets' Week 1 starting QB.
Josh McCown will start the 2017 season as the New York Jets' starting quarterback. Jets coach Todd Bowles announced the decision Monday, but didn't provide any assurances that McCown would start past Week 1. He also did not confirm whether Christian Hackenberg or Bryce Petty will be McCown's backup.
"He gives us the best chance to win right now," Bowles said about McCown. "He has the best grasp of the offense right now. The other two have gotten significantly better, but he has the best grasp right now."
This was the inevitable conclusion to a confusing QB competition that has lasted nearly five months. Although McCown hasn't taken a preseason snap since the first series of Gang Green's first game against the Tennessee Titans, and the Jets significantly tapered off McCown's practice reps over the last two weeks as they prepared Hackenberg to start, the veteran earned the job by default.
"I'm just humbled for this opportunity and I look forward to making the most of it," McCown said.
In three preseason starts, Hackenberg failed to steal the starting gig from McCown, a 38-year-old journeyman. Hackenberg turned 22 preseason possessions into just nine points and threw two first-half pick-sixes in the Jets' loss to the Giants on Saturday. Though New York simplified the playbook for the sophomore gunslinger, Hackenberg did not adjust accordingly when asked to do more against opposing first-team defenses.
Petty, the near-forgotten third-string option who started four games last season, ended the competition with a bang, throwing three second-half touchdowns against the Giants. However, he suffered an MCL injury on New York's final drive, which likely will sideline him early on.
And then there was McCown, and only McCown. This will be the seventh different team for which the elder statesman has started a game in his 15-year career. Brought in from Cleveland in the offseason to be a cheap, competitive mentor to Hackenberg and Petty, McCown has assumed the Jets' starting role by standing back and letting the young guns hand it to him.
How long McCown stays under center -- and healthy -- remains to be seen. When Petty gets healthy or Hackenberg finally "gets it," New York will have no problem handing the reins to a fresh face. But for now, for Week 1 against a division rival, the steadier hand will pilot the Jets.
Josh McCown will start the 2017 season as the New York Jets' starting quarterback. Jets coach Todd Bowles announced the decision Monday, but didn't provide any assurances that McCown would start past Week 1. He also did not confirm whether Christian Hackenberg or Bryce Petty will be McCown's backup.
"He gives us the best chance to win right now," Bowles said about McCown. "He has the best grasp of the offense right now. The other two have gotten significantly better, but he has the best grasp right now."
This was the inevitable conclusion to a confusing QB competition that has lasted nearly five months. Although McCown hasn't taken a preseason snap since the first series of Gang Green's first game against the Tennessee Titans, and the Jets significantly tapered off McCown's practice reps over the last two weeks as they prepared Hackenberg to start, the veteran earned the job by default.
"I'm just humbled for this opportunity and I look forward to making the most of it," McCown said.
In three preseason starts, Hackenberg failed to steal the starting gig from McCown, a 38-year-old journeyman. Hackenberg turned 22 preseason possessions into just nine points and threw two first-half pick-sixes in the Jets' loss to the Giants on Saturday. Though New York simplified the playbook for the sophomore gunslinger, Hackenberg did not adjust accordingly when asked to do more against opposing first-team defenses.
Petty, the near-forgotten third-string option who started four games last season, ended the competition with a bang, throwing three second-half touchdowns against the Giants. However, he suffered an MCL injury on New York's final drive, which likely will sideline him early on.
And then there was McCown, and only McCown. This will be the seventh different team for which the elder statesman has started a game in his 15-year career. Brought in from Cleveland in the offseason to be a cheap, competitive mentor to Hackenberg and Petty, McCown has assumed the Jets' starting role by standing back and letting the young guns hand it to him.
How long McCown stays under center -- and healthy -- remains to be seen. When Petty gets healthy or Hackenberg finally "gets it," New York will have no problem handing the reins to a fresh face. But for now, for Week 1 against a division rival, the steadier hand will pilot the Jets.
[h=1]Giants DE Owa Odighizuwa suspended for four games.[/h]
The New York Giants' vaunted front seven will be without one of its contributors for the season's first quarter.
Third-year defensive end Owa Odighizuwa was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's performance enhancing drugs policy.
Odighizuwa has tallied just six combined tackles in 18 games played through two seasons with Big Blue.
The New York Giants' vaunted front seven will be without one of its contributors for the season's first quarter.
Third-year defensive end Owa Odighizuwa was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's performance enhancing drugs policy.
Odighizuwa has tallied just six combined tackles in 18 games played through two seasons with Big Blue.
Players to pick or pass on in your 2017 fantasy football draft.
Your success this fantasy season likely will be determined by whether you're smart (or lucky) enough on draft day to grab that player on the brink of exploding production, that rookie who has fallen into just the right situation or that veteran poised to flourish in new surroundings. Conversely, woe to those who spend a first-round pick on a player with inflated value because of a freakishly great (and unrepeatable) 2016.
Fear not. ESPN fantasy football experts Mike Clay, Field Yates, Eric Karabell, Matt Bowen and Ken Daube are here to help you steer clear of the flops and pounce on the sleepers and breakouts in 2017. We asked each of them to tackle a different area and give us a list of players to pick or pass on come draft day.
Overvalued players
Players whose fantasy production might not measure up to their ADP
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan is terrific, but last season's 9.26 YPA (yards per attempt) was the highest we've seen since Kurt Warner's historic 9.88 back in 2000. Ryan's numbers were inflated by his receivers dropping only 10 balls while generating 6.2 yards after catch. Expect a return to earth following what was a career year at age 31.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bortles has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback each of the past two seasons despite major efficiency woes. Jacksonville's defense is much improved and the team selected workhorse Leonard Fournette with the fourth pick in April's draft. This will mean more running, and thus a big dip in pass attempts for Bortles.
Latavius Murray, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Murray's 12 TDs and third-best TD-per-rush ratio last season was a product of 16 carries inside opponents' 5-yard line, the league's fifth most. He might still handle goal-line duties in Minnesota, but rookie Dalvin Cook is ticketed for a big role.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
One of the many benefactors of Atlanta's historic offensive season, Coleman found pay dirt on 11 of his 149 touches last year. Coleman's scoring rate is far from sustainable, especially when you consider that he registered only three carries inside the opponent's 5, and zero end-zone targets.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Hill has scored at least nine touchdowns during each of his first three seasons in the league. Expect that streak to end in 2017 after the team upgraded to Joe Mixon via the draft. Hill is an inefficient runner and won't see nearly as many touches.
Kenny Stills, WR, Miami Dolphins
During the past decade, 70 players posted a season in which they scored on 15 percent of receptions. Sixty-five of them (93 percent) scored fewer TDs the next season, with an average dip of 6.1 scores. Stills, the Fins' third-most targeted receiver last season, won't sustain anything close to his 19.1 percent rate (47 catches, nine TDs) in 2017.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hill is ticketed for more targets this season, but consider that he found the end zone on nine of his 83 offensive touches and another three as a returner last year. That's an unsustainable rate for anyone, let alone a 185-pounder who is rarely used near the goal line.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Adams entered 2016 with four touchdowns on 88 career receptions, but he went on to score on 12 of his 75 catches. Over the past decade, there have been eight seasons in which a Packers WR scored nine-plus touchdowns. All seven who played the next year scored less often.
Tyrell Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Williams surprised with a top-20 fantasy campaign last season, but he's due for a big dip in volume with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin healthy, Hunter Henry in for a bigger role and seventh overall pick Mike Williams added to the fold.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce's 223 fantasy points last season were the fewest by a top-scoring TE over the past decade. Stifled by Alex Smith's dink-and-dunk offense, Kelce's 6.71 air yards per target was the second lowest among 1,000-yard pass-catchers. Furthermore, his four touchdowns last season won't be enough for him to keep up with healthy versions of Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed in '17.
Your success this fantasy season likely will be determined by whether you're smart (or lucky) enough on draft day to grab that player on the brink of exploding production, that rookie who has fallen into just the right situation or that veteran poised to flourish in new surroundings. Conversely, woe to those who spend a first-round pick on a player with inflated value because of a freakishly great (and unrepeatable) 2016.
Fear not. ESPN fantasy football experts Mike Clay, Field Yates, Eric Karabell, Matt Bowen and Ken Daube are here to help you steer clear of the flops and pounce on the sleepers and breakouts in 2017. We asked each of them to tackle a different area and give us a list of players to pick or pass on come draft day.
Overvalued players
Players whose fantasy production might not measure up to their ADP
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan is terrific, but last season's 9.26 YPA (yards per attempt) was the highest we've seen since Kurt Warner's historic 9.88 back in 2000. Ryan's numbers were inflated by his receivers dropping only 10 balls while generating 6.2 yards after catch. Expect a return to earth following what was a career year at age 31.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bortles has finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback each of the past two seasons despite major efficiency woes. Jacksonville's defense is much improved and the team selected workhorse Leonard Fournette with the fourth pick in April's draft. This will mean more running, and thus a big dip in pass attempts for Bortles.
Latavius Murray, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Murray's 12 TDs and third-best TD-per-rush ratio last season was a product of 16 carries inside opponents' 5-yard line, the league's fifth most. He might still handle goal-line duties in Minnesota, but rookie Dalvin Cook is ticketed for a big role.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
One of the many benefactors of Atlanta's historic offensive season, Coleman found pay dirt on 11 of his 149 touches last year. Coleman's scoring rate is far from sustainable, especially when you consider that he registered only three carries inside the opponent's 5, and zero end-zone targets.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Hill has scored at least nine touchdowns during each of his first three seasons in the league. Expect that streak to end in 2017 after the team upgraded to Joe Mixon via the draft. Hill is an inefficient runner and won't see nearly as many touches.
Kenny Stills, WR, Miami Dolphins
During the past decade, 70 players posted a season in which they scored on 15 percent of receptions. Sixty-five of them (93 percent) scored fewer TDs the next season, with an average dip of 6.1 scores. Stills, the Fins' third-most targeted receiver last season, won't sustain anything close to his 19.1 percent rate (47 catches, nine TDs) in 2017.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hill is ticketed for more targets this season, but consider that he found the end zone on nine of his 83 offensive touches and another three as a returner last year. That's an unsustainable rate for anyone, let alone a 185-pounder who is rarely used near the goal line.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Adams entered 2016 with four touchdowns on 88 career receptions, but he went on to score on 12 of his 75 catches. Over the past decade, there have been eight seasons in which a Packers WR scored nine-plus touchdowns. All seven who played the next year scored less often.
Tyrell Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Williams surprised with a top-20 fantasy campaign last season, but he's due for a big dip in volume with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin healthy, Hunter Henry in for a bigger role and seventh overall pick Mike Williams added to the fold.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce's 223 fantasy points last season were the fewest by a top-scoring TE over the past decade. Stifled by Alex Smith's dink-and-dunk offense, Kelce's 6.71 air yards per target was the second lowest among 1,000-yard pass-catchers. Furthermore, his four touchdowns last season won't be enough for him to keep up with healthy versions of Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed in '17.
Old faces, new places
Players who could see an uptick in fantasy production with a change of scenery this season
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Inking a one-year deal with the Eagles, Jeffery is back in prove-it mode after a disappointing '16 season. He averaged just more than 68 receiving yards in the nine games he played, but expect much more volume this year. Philly will look to be more balanced this year with LeGarrette Blount in the mix, but the Eagles threw it 609 times in 2016, sixth most in the NFL, while Chicago ranked 22nd.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots
There are a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but Cooks just polished off two seasons north of 1,100 yards for 17 total touchdowns in New Orleans. He's also a unique vertical threat, something Tom Brady hasn't had in a decade. Over the past two seasons, Cooks ranks ninth on receptions that traveled over 15 yards in the air, sixth in receiving yards on such throws and tied for first on TDs on such throws.
Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Washington Redskins
What a leap Pryor made last season, as he became a bona fide threat to opposing defenses. He has the speed to burn, something we saw in Cleveland. However, poor quarterback play meant yards missed for Pryor (13.9 air yards per target, 10th in the NFL). The Browns ranked 26th in deep-completion percentage (15-plus yards in the air) in '16 and threw off-target 42.9 percent of the time. Washington was second.
Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I'm bullish on Garcon this year, as he reunites with coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. He played one full season under Shanahan earlier in his career, leading the NFL with 113 catches and surpassing 1,300 receiving yards. He was just outside the top 10 in wide receiver scoring that season and has remained reliable since. He's one of just four receivers with at least 68 catches in each of the past four seasons.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers managed a grand total of zero passing plays over 50 yards in '16. Enter Jackson, the field-flipping speedster who led the NFL in yards per catch last season and had four receptions over 50 yards by himself. Despite the lack of explosive plays in Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston still ranked in the top five in average depth of targets in each of his first two seasons, so expect Jackson will stay busy down the field.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks want to get back to what catalyzed their offense in the past: running with power effectively. Lacy mixes power and elusiveness well for a man of his stature, ranking second out of 44 backs with at least 350 carries since the start of 2013 in yards per carry after contact (behind former Hawks RB Marshawn Lynch). Thomas Rawls factors into the mix, too, but Lacy looks set to do some heavy lifting in Seattle.
Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens paid good money to sign Woodhead, and he could step into a starting role right away while Kenneth Dixon serves a four-game suspension. It's worth noting that Ravens backs caught 118 passes in a pass-heavy offense last year. Despite missing more than 42 percent of the regular-season games since the start of 2013, Woodhead ranks eighth in catches from RBs and his 13 receiving TDs tied for a NFL best.
Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee Titans
Decker to the Titans makes sense on a lot of levels, especially considering his red zone production. Tossing away his three-game 2016 season, Decker scored a touchdown on 62 percent of his red zone targets from 2012 to 2015, nearly 15 percent better than the league average of 47.9 percent. Meanwhile, QB Marcus Mariota is a certified marksman in the red area. He has thrown 33 TDs and zero interceptions there in his two pro seasons.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Baltimore Ravens
All things being equal, Baltimore would love to see a more balanced approach offensively. If the inconsistent running game continues, volume should be in Maclin's favor after Baltimore led the league in passing attempts in consecutive seasons. Maclin's average 2016 campaign should be viewed as an outlier. In 2010-2015, he averaged 4.99 catches per game. That's 80-catch territory if he stays fully healthy.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Blount isn't likely to replicate his 18-rushing-touchdown season from last year -- he's the only player to do it in the 2010s -- but he has also been a consistent touchdown producer over his career. Since entering the league in 2010, he has 49 rushing scores in total, fifth most in the NFL in that stretch. A finisher back who should lead Philly in rushes and goal-line opportunities, Blount still has top-20-RB upside this season.
Players who could see an uptick in fantasy production with a change of scenery this season
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Inking a one-year deal with the Eagles, Jeffery is back in prove-it mode after a disappointing '16 season. He averaged just more than 68 receiving yards in the nine games he played, but expect much more volume this year. Philly will look to be more balanced this year with LeGarrette Blount in the mix, but the Eagles threw it 609 times in 2016, sixth most in the NFL, while Chicago ranked 22nd.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots
There are a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but Cooks just polished off two seasons north of 1,100 yards for 17 total touchdowns in New Orleans. He's also a unique vertical threat, something Tom Brady hasn't had in a decade. Over the past two seasons, Cooks ranks ninth on receptions that traveled over 15 yards in the air, sixth in receiving yards on such throws and tied for first on TDs on such throws.
Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Washington Redskins
What a leap Pryor made last season, as he became a bona fide threat to opposing defenses. He has the speed to burn, something we saw in Cleveland. However, poor quarterback play meant yards missed for Pryor (13.9 air yards per target, 10th in the NFL). The Browns ranked 26th in deep-completion percentage (15-plus yards in the air) in '16 and threw off-target 42.9 percent of the time. Washington was second.
Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I'm bullish on Garcon this year, as he reunites with coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. He played one full season under Shanahan earlier in his career, leading the NFL with 113 catches and surpassing 1,300 receiving yards. He was just outside the top 10 in wide receiver scoring that season and has remained reliable since. He's one of just four receivers with at least 68 catches in each of the past four seasons.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers managed a grand total of zero passing plays over 50 yards in '16. Enter Jackson, the field-flipping speedster who led the NFL in yards per catch last season and had four receptions over 50 yards by himself. Despite the lack of explosive plays in Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston still ranked in the top five in average depth of targets in each of his first two seasons, so expect Jackson will stay busy down the field.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks want to get back to what catalyzed their offense in the past: running with power effectively. Lacy mixes power and elusiveness well for a man of his stature, ranking second out of 44 backs with at least 350 carries since the start of 2013 in yards per carry after contact (behind former Hawks RB Marshawn Lynch). Thomas Rawls factors into the mix, too, but Lacy looks set to do some heavy lifting in Seattle.
Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens paid good money to sign Woodhead, and he could step into a starting role right away while Kenneth Dixon serves a four-game suspension. It's worth noting that Ravens backs caught 118 passes in a pass-heavy offense last year. Despite missing more than 42 percent of the regular-season games since the start of 2013, Woodhead ranks eighth in catches from RBs and his 13 receiving TDs tied for a NFL best.
Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee Titans
Decker to the Titans makes sense on a lot of levels, especially considering his red zone production. Tossing away his three-game 2016 season, Decker scored a touchdown on 62 percent of his red zone targets from 2012 to 2015, nearly 15 percent better than the league average of 47.9 percent. Meanwhile, QB Marcus Mariota is a certified marksman in the red area. He has thrown 33 TDs and zero interceptions there in his two pro seasons.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Baltimore Ravens
All things being equal, Baltimore would love to see a more balanced approach offensively. If the inconsistent running game continues, volume should be in Maclin's favor after Baltimore led the league in passing attempts in consecutive seasons. Maclin's average 2016 campaign should be viewed as an outlier. In 2010-2015, he averaged 4.99 catches per game. That's 80-catch territory if he stays fully healthy.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Blount isn't likely to replicate his 18-rushing-touchdown season from last year -- he's the only player to do it in the 2010s -- but he has also been a consistent touchdown producer over his career. Since entering the league in 2010, he has 49 rushing scores in total, fifth most in the NFL in that stretch. A finisher back who should lead Philly in rushes and goal-line opportunities, Blount still has top-20-RB upside this season.
