NFL Tout Tally

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Yesterday was a very good day for the Books-thank you -public won pitt nfl lost buff but that was about it - books swept the nite card thank and cfb overall was super -big money was on Troy , utah st Sjs and Utah -public won AF an No ill Lang had 200 d sjs. He said sjs was his best pk of 2023 lol
today its early -ill update soon
 

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Mark Lawrence. Tenn
his 10* goy is balt mon nite vs sf

circa top 5.
cle
fins
seat
stl
tb
 

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Mark Lawrence. Tenn
his 10* goy is balt mon nite vs sf

circa top 5.
cle
fins
seat
stl
tb
catch me up Bob as I dont follow services at all or touts as fading isnt part of my capping strategy and those guys mostly suck so I dont even care what they say. But I remember the Mark Lawrence guy from years ago and he used to be decent....is he having a good year? I am most likely on Balt tomorrow and i already played the over...Lamar is an unbeatable force against NFC teams and those with high Defensive rankings he always shows up for, so I believe Balt may be a decent play here...

Just curious, it wont sway me either way as I cap the games to a number unlike most who just read public% or line moves (silly strategy for those of us who know the game to do as your ONLY capping LOL)
 

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Well i find fading most of these touts , when there aligned against what vegas needs you win a good percentage -how can anyone really cap an NFL game? your pretty good at it-.most cannot + you play a bunch of games and again you do pretty good and it works for you ! I fade a lot cause it works year after year.
 

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Well i find fading most of these touts , when there aligned against what vegas needs you win a good percentage -how can anyone really cap an NFL game? your pretty good at it-.most cannot + you play a bunch of games and again you do pretty good and it works for you ! I fade a lot cause it works year after year.
Thank you, yes if the strategy works then stick with it. Appreciate the words. I have a different approach, more old fashioned but detailed. Having played the game in college, and having a Cousin played NFL for 5 years helps, but I start with capping each game to point value. Every starting/role player gets a value associated, its a lot of math based on stats and recency performance but it averages out. I compared notes with the great Billy Walters years ago in Vegas (before his prison term thanks to Jack ass Phil Mickelson), and he has the same approach, He caps every team and player to a value, it helps with scores/totals and arrving at "my line" vs the books line. Without sports handicapping, my old college coach Steve Logan essentially did the same thing before games, to try to figure out where our team would land each quarter, as he scripted first 15-20 plays and had backup plays depending on situations at every given point of the game.

If I arrive at a line over 2-3 points different from the books, I look a little deeper (situational analysis, injuries, playoff scenarios this time of year, travel and scheduling, and glance at public/line moves last), and if it's greater than 5-6 points its def a play and even more its a bigger play as its outside the typical statisctical margin for error. In a nutshell, thats what I do, doesnt work all the time but has worked for me over the years i've been doing it.
Without giving away the secret sauce that's a lot of my process.

I'm guessing by your post Mark Lawrence is a good fade? I've been out of the loop on that guy, just remember his name from years ago, and that Feinstein guy...believe Mark just plays Dogs?
 

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Thnx for this info X :hattip:

Merry Christmas to everyone!!
 

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Im my younger days i too did sone of that , i was a Screener when i was 20 or so -i would recieve plenty of action working for the big book, an it was my job to tell them instantly how much was on a certain team especially NFl where the money coming in was extrodinary -so that they could Pass it off to another so as to not to get hit hard on 1 given team, especially near game time 1pm est in my area .tons of money would be in play especially ist 5 weeks in a season usually the worst for books-after 5 weeks they eat it all. Standard practice -eventually it lands in vegas each day -but ill tell you this for 30+ years i worked for them the italians snd they Never Lost overall. NFL is the bookies bread and and butter -thTs why i fade the public but its not ez today.much harder-the newsketters and touts no Nothing. Mark lawrence makes a fortune with his newsketters he probably never bets ! Most of them dont either-they sell false infomation. Yet people pay it. Fading them overtime is Golden
 

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Im my younger days i too did sone of that , i was a Screener when i was 20 or so -i would recieve plenty of action working for the big book, an it was my job to tell them instantly how much was on a certain team especially NFl where the money coming in was extrodinary -so that they could Pass it off to another so as to not to get hit hard on 1 given team, especially near game time 1pm est in my area .tons of money would be in play especially ist 5 weeks in a season usually the worst for books-after 5 weeks they eat it all. Standard practice -eventually it lands in vegas each day -but ill tell you this for 30+ years i worked for them the italians snd they Never Lost overall. NFL is the bookies bread and and butter -thTs why i fade the public but its not ez today.much harder-the newsketters and touts no Nothing. Mark lawrence makes a fortune with his newsketters he probably never bets ! Most of them dont either-they sell false infomation. Yet people pay it. Fading them overtime is Golden
Sounds like you share some of my experiences as I had a small book years ago on the side but the hassles of it became ridiculous. Lived out of vegas for a few years in my late 20's/30's And divorce to first wife, got to meet some of the bookmakers and Sportsbook Directors and learned even more.
You are right about touts not betting games at all, most dont know this. I have spoken with a few and they all said "why bet when I make money on chumps paying for picks?"
Kinda makes me angry that anyone PAYS for these picks from idiots who NEVER played nor understand the game and are scamming people constantly....if you dont have SKIN in the game, you shouldnt be selling picks anyway, at least that's my belief...most of my wall street friends/advisors always had to disclose their position and would always have skin in the game or would tell the client.

I've seen quite a few of these touts picks and they are TERRIBLE, including one clown in my ncaa thread the other day (seattlecowgirl/Dustin Noel dude from here) who got mad all his clients rejected his monthly fee and joined my FREE group on Telegram to get picks, so he started sending harrassing/threatening messages to me. I hate these scammer touts with a passion. They make serious handicappers like you and me look bad as we do it for free and on our own time and good-will.
Good luck Bob and hope you hit all your bets and Merry Christmas!
 

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He's pretty hot on his 4*
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (6-7-0) (Liberty +17 pending for January 1)
4* (9-4-1)
3* (8-5-0) (Kentucky +7 pending for December 29)
Bonus pick (1-0-0)
Upset pick (6-10-0) (BC +10.5 pending for December 28)
Betcha Didn’t Know (10-5-2)
Awesome Angle (5-10-1) (Wisconsin +10 pending for January 1)
Incredible Stat (11-5-0) (Northwestern +7 pending for December 23)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (8-6-1)
4* (6-9-0)
3* (9-5-1)
 

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So far big plays on Cleve Goy Gom
essler clev usually bad
im seeing vikes so far with touts
 

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