Well i find fading most of these touts , when there aligned against what vegas needs you win a good percentage -how can anyone really cap an NFL game? your pretty good at it-.most cannot + you play a bunch of games and again you do pretty good and it works for you ! I fade a lot cause it works year after year.
Thank you, yes if the strategy works then stick with it. Appreciate the words. I have a different approach, more old fashioned but detailed. Having played the game in college, and having a Cousin played NFL for 5 years helps, but I start with capping each game to point value. Every starting/role player gets a value associated, its a lot of math based on stats and recency performance but it averages out. I compared notes with the great Billy Walters years ago in Vegas (before his prison term thanks to Jack ass Phil Mickelson), and he has the same approach, He caps every team and player to a value, it helps with scores/totals and arrving at "my line" vs the books line. Without sports handicapping, my old college coach Steve Logan essentially did the same thing before games, to try to figure out where our team would land each quarter, as he scripted first 15-20 plays and had backup plays depending on situations at every given point of the game.
If I arrive at a line over 2-3 points different from the books, I look a little deeper (situational analysis, injuries, playoff scenarios this time of year, travel and scheduling, and glance at public/line moves last), and if it's greater than 5-6 points its def a play and even more its a bigger play as its outside the typical statisctical margin for error. In a nutshell, thats what I do, doesnt work all the time but has worked for me over the years i've been doing it.
Without giving away the secret sauce that's a lot of my process.
I'm guessing by your post Mark Lawrence is a good fade? I've been out of the loop on that guy, just remember his name from years ago, and that Feinstein guy...believe Mark just plays Dogs?
