[h=1]Teams likeliest to go worst-to-first[/h][h=3]Chances for each 2013 division loser to win 2014 title; Bills, Texans are 1-2[/h]
By Tom Gower | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Each of the past 11 seasons, at least one team has made the transition from last place in their division the previous season to first place in their division the next season. The Carolina Panthersdid it in 2013, the Washington Redskins in 2012, and the Denver Broncos in 2011. Which last-place team will accomplish the feat this year?
In the Football Outsiders Almanac 2014, we forecast the upcoming season with a formula that accounts for everything from performance the past two years to personnel changes to injury history. Then we simulate the season 1 million times, accounting for all the randomness and unknown variables that will also affect the upcoming season.
Based on that simulation, here are last year's eight last-place teams in their order of likelihood to make the transition from worst in 2013 to first in 2014:
[h=3]1. Buffalo Bills, 21.2 percent[/h]<offer></offer>
The Bills may seem unlikely candidates for that sort of transition, seeing that they play in the same division as the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. We agree that New England is likely to be good; our season simulations give the Patriots the second-best mean win projection in the AFC and the second-best chance to make the playoffs of any AFC team, behind only the Broncos.
However, if the Patriots do falter, our numbers like Buffalo much better than the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins. In fact, by our numbers, the 2013 Bills were the 18th-best team in the league overall, even though they only went 6-10. They were better than the Jets (24th) and Dolphins (22nd). Their defense ranked fourth in the league in our advanced Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA) ratings, which are explained here.
While defense is less consistent from year to year than offense, we project the Bills' defense to have another good year, despite the departures of Mike Pettine and Jairus Byrdand loss of Kiko Alonso, because of their strength on the defensive line. The offense, meanwhile, is packed with the kind of young talent that could -- isn't likely to, but definitely could -- take a big step forward all at once.
[h=3]2. Houston Texans, 19.1 percent[/h]It may seem odd that the team that earned the first overall pick comes in second on this list, but the Texans have a very good chance to win a lot more games than they did last year. Grantland's Bill Barnwell recently covered the Texans in some detail, and our simulations generally concur with his statistical arguments.
We have Houston with the easiest projected schedule in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a long track record as a below-average NFL quarterback, but that level would actually be an upgrade over last year's quarterback play. Jadeveon Clowney gives them an edge rush threat that they lacked. The Texans' path is also a lot clearer in the AFC South than it is for the teams from other divisions on this list. As we recently chronicled, the Indianapolis Coltshave a thin roster, to put it charitably. The Tennessee Titans are really no better than the Texans, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are still in deep rebuild mode.
[h=3]3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 17.3 percent[/h]Despite Tampa Bay's 4-12 record, they finished 19th in DVOA last year. Now they have replaced Greg Schiano, who struggled to adapt to managing both the NFL game and the NFL player, with Lovie Smith, who, whatever his other faults, can do both of those things.
Our projections have the New Orleans Saints as the best team in the division and likely NFC South winner. Tampa Bay benefits from the lack of a clearly strong second team, as our projections have the Panthers likely declining and the Atlanta Falcons having less of a rebound season than others might expect. If the Saints do not win, any of the other three teams has about as good a shot as the other.
Bear in mind that our projection system is skeptical that Josh McCown is much of an upgrade over Mike Glennon. But if McCown really did become a much better quarterback at age 34 this past season, the Buccaneers will be better than our projections, and probably would be the most likely worst-to-first candidate.
[h=3]4. Washington Redskins, 15.2 percent[/h]Washington was 23rd on offense and 21st on defense in 2013, but finished 29th in overall DVOA thanks to historically bad special-teams play. Even historically bad special-teams units tend to be close to league average the next season, so it's easy to see this team improving on that account alone.
Our projection is for Robert Griffin III to do better in his third season than he did in his second, though we only have him playing at a league-average level rather than above-average, as he was in his rookie season. If new head coach Jay Gruden can improve Griffin even more than that, Washington will be well-poised to step in if the Philadelphia Eaglesand New York Giants falter.
[h=3]5. St. Louis Rams, 14.3 percent[/h]Poor St. Louis. The Rams were the best last-place team in the league last year by both record (7-9) and DVOA (14th). If you put them in the AFC South, they would be the co-favorites with Indianapolis.
Unfortunately for them, the NFC West is the best division in football, and there is no "if the clear division leader falters, they have as good a shot as any other team" scenario. If theSeattle Seahawks struggle, the San Francisco 49ers become the favorites. The Rams' path to winning the division has a passing game packed with high draft picks and younger players improving, the defense remaining strong, and Seattle and San Francisco not playing as well as they did last season. That's possible, but unlikely.
[h=3]6. Minnesota Vikings, 12.9 percent[/h]No matter whether Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater starts, the Vikings will have a cleaner quarterback situation in 2014. That alone should make for a better season than 2013.
On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers missed all or most of eight games this past season, theChicago Bears defense collapsed due to injuries, and the Vikings still finished last in the NFC North. Barring another season when the top teams in the division are hit hard by injuries, the Vikings need their young secondary to suddenly improve a great deal (not to mention another historic season from Adrian Peterson) to have a chance to top the NFC North in 2014.
[h=3]7. Cleveland Browns, 10.4 percent[/h]The good news for the Browns is that there are no great teams in the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals are a borderline top-10 team and the Pittsburgh Steelers are slightly behind them, but there are no Packers, Seahawks, or Broncos to be found here.
The bad news is that there is no single area of last year's team that the Browns could point to as a strength on which they could build. For instance, Brian Hoyer's main attribute was that he was better than last year's other quarterbacks, but we had him with a below-average -10.4 percent DVOA.
The best case for radical improvement is based on the idea that Mike Pettine can improve a talented but incomplete defense the way he did with the Bills last year, while Kyle Shanahan can build the Cleveland offense around a highly effective run game with new backs behind a solid (or better) offensive line. Our numbers are skeptical.
[h=3]8. Oakland Raiders, 1.5 percent[/h]And then there is Oakland. The Raiders were the second-worst team in the league by DVOA last year. The other three teams in the division all made the playoffs in 2013.
While we see the Kansas City Chiefs as an obvious regression candidate, the Broncos andSan Diego Chargers both had excellent offenses last season. Historically, a good offense translates to success the next season better than a good defense. Oakland's offseason additions should result in a better Raiders team, but it probably will not translate into many wins against what we have projected as the league's most challenging schedule.
On the other hand, in 373 of our million simulations, the Raiders actually won the Super Bowl. Dream the implausible dream, Raiders fans, for it is August and anything can happen.
By Tom Gower | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Each of the past 11 seasons, at least one team has made the transition from last place in their division the previous season to first place in their division the next season. The Carolina Panthersdid it in 2013, the Washington Redskins in 2012, and the Denver Broncos in 2011. Which last-place team will accomplish the feat this year?
In the Football Outsiders Almanac 2014, we forecast the upcoming season with a formula that accounts for everything from performance the past two years to personnel changes to injury history. Then we simulate the season 1 million times, accounting for all the randomness and unknown variables that will also affect the upcoming season.
Based on that simulation, here are last year's eight last-place teams in their order of likelihood to make the transition from worst in 2013 to first in 2014:
[h=3]1. Buffalo Bills, 21.2 percent[/h]<offer></offer>
The Bills may seem unlikely candidates for that sort of transition, seeing that they play in the same division as the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. We agree that New England is likely to be good; our season simulations give the Patriots the second-best mean win projection in the AFC and the second-best chance to make the playoffs of any AFC team, behind only the Broncos.
However, if the Patriots do falter, our numbers like Buffalo much better than the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins. In fact, by our numbers, the 2013 Bills were the 18th-best team in the league overall, even though they only went 6-10. They were better than the Jets (24th) and Dolphins (22nd). Their defense ranked fourth in the league in our advanced Defensive-Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA) ratings, which are explained here.
While defense is less consistent from year to year than offense, we project the Bills' defense to have another good year, despite the departures of Mike Pettine and Jairus Byrdand loss of Kiko Alonso, because of their strength on the defensive line. The offense, meanwhile, is packed with the kind of young talent that could -- isn't likely to, but definitely could -- take a big step forward all at once.
[h=3]2. Houston Texans, 19.1 percent[/h]It may seem odd that the team that earned the first overall pick comes in second on this list, but the Texans have a very good chance to win a lot more games than they did last year. Grantland's Bill Barnwell recently covered the Texans in some detail, and our simulations generally concur with his statistical arguments.
We have Houston with the easiest projected schedule in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a long track record as a below-average NFL quarterback, but that level would actually be an upgrade over last year's quarterback play. Jadeveon Clowney gives them an edge rush threat that they lacked. The Texans' path is also a lot clearer in the AFC South than it is for the teams from other divisions on this list. As we recently chronicled, the Indianapolis Coltshave a thin roster, to put it charitably. The Tennessee Titans are really no better than the Texans, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are still in deep rebuild mode.
[h=3]3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 17.3 percent[/h]Despite Tampa Bay's 4-12 record, they finished 19th in DVOA last year. Now they have replaced Greg Schiano, who struggled to adapt to managing both the NFL game and the NFL player, with Lovie Smith, who, whatever his other faults, can do both of those things.
Our projections have the New Orleans Saints as the best team in the division and likely NFC South winner. Tampa Bay benefits from the lack of a clearly strong second team, as our projections have the Panthers likely declining and the Atlanta Falcons having less of a rebound season than others might expect. If the Saints do not win, any of the other three teams has about as good a shot as the other.
Bear in mind that our projection system is skeptical that Josh McCown is much of an upgrade over Mike Glennon. But if McCown really did become a much better quarterback at age 34 this past season, the Buccaneers will be better than our projections, and probably would be the most likely worst-to-first candidate.
[h=3]4. Washington Redskins, 15.2 percent[/h]Washington was 23rd on offense and 21st on defense in 2013, but finished 29th in overall DVOA thanks to historically bad special-teams play. Even historically bad special-teams units tend to be close to league average the next season, so it's easy to see this team improving on that account alone.
Our projection is for Robert Griffin III to do better in his third season than he did in his second, though we only have him playing at a league-average level rather than above-average, as he was in his rookie season. If new head coach Jay Gruden can improve Griffin even more than that, Washington will be well-poised to step in if the Philadelphia Eaglesand New York Giants falter.
[h=3]5. St. Louis Rams, 14.3 percent[/h]Poor St. Louis. The Rams were the best last-place team in the league last year by both record (7-9) and DVOA (14th). If you put them in the AFC South, they would be the co-favorites with Indianapolis.
Unfortunately for them, the NFC West is the best division in football, and there is no "if the clear division leader falters, they have as good a shot as any other team" scenario. If theSeattle Seahawks struggle, the San Francisco 49ers become the favorites. The Rams' path to winning the division has a passing game packed with high draft picks and younger players improving, the defense remaining strong, and Seattle and San Francisco not playing as well as they did last season. That's possible, but unlikely.
[h=3]6. Minnesota Vikings, 12.9 percent[/h]No matter whether Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater starts, the Vikings will have a cleaner quarterback situation in 2014. That alone should make for a better season than 2013.
On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers missed all or most of eight games this past season, theChicago Bears defense collapsed due to injuries, and the Vikings still finished last in the NFC North. Barring another season when the top teams in the division are hit hard by injuries, the Vikings need their young secondary to suddenly improve a great deal (not to mention another historic season from Adrian Peterson) to have a chance to top the NFC North in 2014.
[h=3]7. Cleveland Browns, 10.4 percent[/h]The good news for the Browns is that there are no great teams in the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals are a borderline top-10 team and the Pittsburgh Steelers are slightly behind them, but there are no Packers, Seahawks, or Broncos to be found here.
The bad news is that there is no single area of last year's team that the Browns could point to as a strength on which they could build. For instance, Brian Hoyer's main attribute was that he was better than last year's other quarterbacks, but we had him with a below-average -10.4 percent DVOA.
The best case for radical improvement is based on the idea that Mike Pettine can improve a talented but incomplete defense the way he did with the Bills last year, while Kyle Shanahan can build the Cleveland offense around a highly effective run game with new backs behind a solid (or better) offensive line. Our numbers are skeptical.
[h=3]8. Oakland Raiders, 1.5 percent[/h]And then there is Oakland. The Raiders were the second-worst team in the league by DVOA last year. The other three teams in the division all made the playoffs in 2013.
While we see the Kansas City Chiefs as an obvious regression candidate, the Broncos andSan Diego Chargers both had excellent offenses last season. Historically, a good offense translates to success the next season better than a good defense. Oakland's offseason additions should result in a better Raiders team, but it probably will not translate into many wins against what we have projected as the league's most challenging schedule.
On the other hand, in 373 of our million simulations, the Raiders actually won the Super Bowl. Dream the implausible dream, Raiders fans, for it is August and anything can happen.
