NFL Systems 2015

[rolltide]

not sure i will have the time to keep this one going all season but with so few to zip through in week 1 I can at least get this out now:

Active Systems - NFL Week ONE:

OPPOSE week 1 road dogs knocked out from playoffs early last season. (oppose Detroit Lions)

week = 1 and Sum(playoffs@team,N=2) = 1 and D and total > 37 and season >= 2004
SU: 1-24-0 (-12.12, 4.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 3-21-1 (-7.88, 12.5%) avg line: 4.2 +6: 12-13-0 (48.0%) -6: 1-24-0 (4.0%) +10: 16-8-1 (66.7%) -10: 0-25-0 (0.0%) O/U: 15-8-2 (2.64, 65.2%) avg total: 44.4 +6: 9-16-0 (36.0%) -6: 20-5-0 (80.0%) +10: 6-19-0 (24.0%) -10: 20-5-0 (80.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 22.2 94.4 37.6 23.0 224.4 2.2 2.7 5.6 4.7 4.5 17.5 Opp 29.5 119.8 32.6 21.1 246.9 1.1 5.3 9.8 7.2 7.3 29.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Lions Chargers away 3.0 45.5

PLAY ON week 1 teams that had horrible turnover differential in previous season when playing team that had a great turnover differential. (play on Jets, Bears, Eagles)

Sum(turnover margin@team and season and playoffs = 0)[team and season -1 and playoffs = 0] >= 5 and Sum(o:turnover margin@o:team and season and playoffs = 0)[o:team and season -1 and playoffs = 0] <= -5 and week = 1
SU: 32-28-0 (1.70, 53.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 42-17-1 (5.08, 71.2%) avg line: 3.4 +6: 49-11-0 (81.7%) -6: 29-30-1 (49.2%) +10: 55-4-1 (93.2%) -10: 16-42-2 (27.6%) O/U: 28-32-0 (0.29, 46.7%) avg total: 41.6 +6: 18-42-0 (30.0%) -6: 39-21-0 (65.0%) +10: 11-48-1 (18.6%) -10: 44-16-0 (73.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.4 117.1 31.8 19.2 202.3 1.7 4.8 6.5 5.1 5.3 21.8 Opp 25.6 96.0 36.3 21.9 227.5 2.1 2.8 6.2 4.1 6.8 20.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 14, 2015 Monday 1 2015 Eagles Falcons away -3.0 55.0 Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Bears Packers home 6.5 49.0 Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Jets Browns home -3.5 39.5

UNDER week 1 divisional home teams with revenge. (STL/SEA under)

week = 1 and DIV and H and line < 4.5 and season > 1995 and P:L
SU: 28-21-0 (3.04, 57.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 28-20-1 (2.14, 58.3%) avg line: -0.9 +6: 36-11-2 (76.6%) -6: 15-33-1 (31.2%) +10: 42-5-2 (89.4%) -10: 11-37-1 (22.9%) O/U: 15-34-0 (-4.10, 30.6%) avg total: 42.1 +6: 11-38-0 (22.4%) -6: 25-23-1 (52.1%) +10: 7-42-0 (14.3%) -10: 33-15-1 (68.8%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.6 111.4 33.4 19.6 209.9 1.5 4.9 5.7 4.4 5.4 20.5 Opp 26.0 101.5 34.9 20.6 221.7 2.2 3.0 5.5 3.4 5.5 17.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Rams Seahawks home 3.5 40.5

OPPOSE week 1 road dogs that were >.500 last year as long as home team won 3+ games last year. (oppose Detroit, oppose Baltimore .... watch KC line but oppose only if dog)

total > 37 and week = 1 and Average(W@team and season)[team and season -1] > .500 and AD and Average(W@o:team and season)[o:team and season -1] >= .2
SU: 7-49-0 (-11.36, 12.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-43-4 (-7.48, 17.3%) avg line: 3.9 +6: 28-27-1 (50.9%) -6: 6-50-0 (10.7%) +10: 34-20-2 (63.0%) -10: 3-52-1 (5.5%) O/U: 27-29-0 (0.57, 48.2%) avg total: 43.7 +6: 21-35-0 (37.5%) -6: 35-21-0 (62.5%) +10: 16-40-0 (28.6%) -10: 38-18-0 (67.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 23.0 88.4 37.2 21.6 233.2 2.5 2.9 5.3 3.7 4.5 16.5 Opp 29.1 119.5 32.2 20.3 236.8 1.1 5.8 8.1 6.4 7.5 27.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Chiefs Texans away 1.0 40.0 Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Lions Chargers away 3.0 45.5 Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Ravens Broncos away 4.5 47.5

PLAY ON any week 1 non-division underdog that won just 4-7 games last year. (play on Washington, play on Atlanta)

.20 < Average(W@team and season)[team and season -1] < .40 and week = 1 and line > 1.5 and not DIV
SU: 26-40-0 (-2.77, 39.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 45-19-2 (3.33, 70.3%) avg line: 6.1 +6: 52-14-0 (78.8%) -6: 25-38-3 (39.7%) +10: 55-10-1 (84.6%) -10: 18-48-0 (27.3%) O/U: 32-34-0 (0.42, 48.5%) avg total: 40.2 +6: 19-46-1 (29.2%) -6: 43-21-2 (67.2%) +10: 16-50-0 (24.2%) -10: 51-14-1 (78.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.3 106.2 31.2 18.2 189.7 1.7 3.9 6.2 3.3 5.5 18.9 Opp 27.4 107.7 32.3 19.8 213.8 2.0 3.5 6.0 5.5 6.5 21.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 14, 2015 Monday 1 2015 Falcons Eagles home 3.0 55.0 Sep 13, 2015 Sunday 1 2015 Redskins Dolphins home 3.5 43.5

UNDER any week 1 away fav in non-division game with high total. (ATL/PHI under)

A and week = 1 and NDIV and total >= 45 and line < 1.5
SU: 13-3-0 (6.12, 81.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-5-1 (2.72, 66.7%) avg line: -3.4 +6: 13-3-0 (81.2%) -6: 6-10-0 (37.5%) +10: 13-2-1 (86.7%) -10: 5-11-0 (31.2%) O/U: 0-15-1 (-13.81, 0.0%) avg total: 47.3 +6: 0-16-0 (0.0%) -6: 3-12-1 (20.0%) +10: 0-16-0 (0.0%) -10: 5-11-0 (31.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.8 104.5 34.1 22.9 228.1 1.5 3.0 9.2 4.1 3.4 19.8 Opp 22.5 100.8 34.6 21.0 212.2 2.2 2.4 3.5 2.8 5.1 13.7
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 14, 2015 Monday 1 2015 Eagles Falcons away -3.0 55.0

current week 1 system plays would be:
San Diego -3
Chicago +7
NY Jets -3.5
Denver -4.5
Washington +3.5
PHI/ATL under 55.5
SEA/STL under 41

 

[sunshine11]

Good stuff

 

[savage55]

thnx RT.. I was hoping you would post

 

[MalikSealy]

hope you find the time to post....really valuable info here. gl tide

 

[Bolty]

thanks for all you do

 

[Behrens]

Appreciate the SDQL's

Good luck

 

[rolltide]

week 1 = sides 3-2, totals 1-1


OPPOSE favs off OT win in first half of season. (against ST Louis). note: when surface change this drops to 5-15 ATS

F and week > 1 and week < 8 and pvertime > 0 and p:W and season > 1999
SU: 16-19-0 (-2.00, 45.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-25-0 (-5.60, 28.6%) avg line: -3.6 +6: 19-16-0 (54.3%) -6: 6-29-0 (17.1%) +10: 23-11-1 (67.6%) -10: 5-30-0 (14.3%) O/U: 18-17-0 (1.13, 51.4%) avg total: 42.0 +6: 13-22-0 (37.1%) -6: 24-8-3 (75.0%) +10: 6-27-2 (18.2%) -10: 29-4-2 (87.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.0 111.5 34.4 21.8 235.5 2.1 4.7 6.3 4.0 5.6 20.6 Opp 27.9 119.0 30.9 18.5 191.3 1.5 3.7 7.5 4.3 7.0 22.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Rams Redskins away -3.5 41.0

OVER away teams off a home fav loss in first half of season. (Bucs/Saints over)

A and p:HFL and season > 2005 and week < 10 and p:turnovers < 6
SU: 50-75-0 (-2.59, 40.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 67-57-1 (0.99, 54.0%) avg line: 3.6 +6: 88-34-3 (72.1%) -6: 42-79-4 (34.7%) +10: 98-26-1 (79.0%) -10: 29-95-1 (23.4%) O/U: 83-36-6 (4.37, 69.7%) avg total: 43.2 +6: 55-69-1 (44.4%) -6: 101-23-1 (81.5%) +10: 38-84-3 (31.1%) -10: 109-16-0 (87.2%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.2 116.4 33.9 21.0 226.8 1.6 4.0 7.2 4.3 6.9 22.5 Opp 28.0 124.6 33.4 21.1 231.0 1.7 5.5 7.6 5.2 6.6 25.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Buccaneers Saints away 10.0 47.0

UNDER week 2 home teams that won as dog in week 1 vs team that did now win as a dog. (under NE/BUF)

pW and H and (opW) = False and week = 2
SU: 34-26-0 (1.88, 56.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 29-30-1 (-0.20, 49.2%) avg line: -2.1 +6: 40-19-1 (67.8%) -6: 18-39-3 (31.6%) +10: 44-15-1 (74.6%) -10: 14-45-1 (23.7%) O/U: 19-39-2 (-2.42, 32.8%) avg total: 40.5 +6: 12-48-0 (20.0%) -6: 33-25-2 (56.9%) +10: 8-52-0 (13.3%) -10: 45-15-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.9 110.4 32.7 18.7 212.7 1.7 3.5 5.5 4.7 6.1 20.0 Opp 28.1 107.2 32.7 19.5 213.1 2.1 3.2 6.9 4.0 4.0 18.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Bills Patriots home 1.0 45.0

OVER in non-conf game with one team <.500... (PIT/SF over, CAR/HOU over)
subset: 41-12 o/u when home team is <.500 with worse record and road team >20 points last week (PIT/SF over)

not C and date > 20121101 and H and (WP < 50 or o:WP < 50) and date < 20150927
SU: 53-48-0 (0.38, 52.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-60-2 (-1.93, 39.4%) avg line: -2.3 +6: 59-40-2 (59.6%) -6: 28-72-1 (28.0%) +10: 72-26-3 (73.5%) -10: 23-78-0 (22.8%) O/U: 72-28-1 (5.17, 72.0%) avg total: 45.4 +6: 47-52-2 (47.5%) -6: 81-19-1 (81.0%) +10: 32-67-2 (32.3%) -10: 87-13-1 (87.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.1 111.3 36.8 23.6 254.9 1.7 5.2 7.1 5.2 7.8 25.5 Opp 26.9 118.5 33.7 20.3 224.9 1.5 5.1 7.8 5.9 6.2 25.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Panthers Texans home -3.0 40.5 Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Steelers Fortyniners home -5.5 45.0

OPPOSE winning favs after SU win as a small home dog. (against St Louis)

F and WP > 50 and p:HDW and season >= 2003 and p:line < 5.5
SU: 17-22-0 (-2.51, 43.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 6-32-1 (-6.31, 15.8%) avg line: -3.8 +6: 19-19-1 (50.0%) -6: 4-34-1 (10.5%) +10: 26-12-1 (68.4%) -10: 4-35-0 (10.3%) O/U: 18-18-3 (0.73, 50.0%) avg total: 42.8 +6: 12-27-0 (30.8%) -6: 26-12-1 (68.4%) +10: 11-28-0 (28.2%) -10: 29-8-2 (78.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.0 97.9 37.3 22.8 252.8 2.2 2.9 5.5 4.1 7.6 20.5 Opp 27.2 105.6 34.6 20.5 230.6 1.3 3.7 7.6 5.4 5.9 23.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Rams Redskins away -3.5 41.0

OPPOSE away dogs vs ML that lost in OT after making a 4th quarter comeback. (play GB money line)

pvertime > 0 and p:L and -14 < p:M3 <= 0 and AD and line > 3
SU: 3-30-0 (-9.55, 9.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 17-14-2 (-2.18, 54.8%) avg line: 7.4 +6: 21-12-0 (63.6%) -6: 5-24-4 (17.2%) +10: 22-10-1 (68.8%) -10: 2-31-0 (6.1%) O/U: 14-17-2 (-0.94, 45.2%) avg total: 41.7 +6: 10-23-0 (30.3%) -6: 20-13-0 (60.6%) +10: 6-27-0 (18.2%) -10: 24-9-0 (72.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 25.1 103.0 34.4 19.0 185.9 2.2 3.2 4.7 3.5 4.2 15.6 Opp 31.4 128.7 32.7 19.9 223.3 1.8 4.4 8.2 6.3 6.0 25.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Seahawks Packers away 3.5 49.0

OPPOSE and OVER a team that just forced 3+ home turnovers vs opponent that just forced 0 road turnovers. (on Indy and IND/NYJ over)

opo:turnovers = 0 and po:turnovers >= 3 and date > 20041011 and p:H and op:A
SU: 27-47-1 (-6.47, 36.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 24-48-3 (-5.87, 33.3%) avg line: 0.6 +6: 39-31-5 (55.7%) -6: 16-58-1 (21.6%) +10: 46-29-0 (61.3%) -10: 12-63-0 (16.0%) O/U: 52-22-1 (5.10, 70.3%) avg total: 42.5 +6: 35-36-4 (49.3%) -6: 63-12-0 (84.0%) +10: 17-56-2 (23.3%) -10: 68-7-0 (90.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 24.7 100.3 34.3 20.7 231.4 1.8 4.7 5.5 4.9 5.4 20.6 Opp 29.6 130.6 33.0 21.2 235.7 1.5 5.3 9.4 5.5 6.7 27.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 21, 2015 Monday 2 2015 Jets Colts away 7.0 47.0

OVER teams off terrible home loss scoring <14. (BAL/OAK over)

p:HL and op:AL and season >= 2007 and p:margin <= -8 and points < 14
SU: 30-53-0 (-3.63, 36.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 44-38-1 (0.38, 53.7%) avg line: 4.0 +6: 63-20-0 (75.9%) -6: 27-54-2 (33.3%) +10: 66-15-2 (81.5%) -10: 16-66-1 (19.5%) O/U: 52-29-2 (4.02, 64.2%) avg total: 41.2 +6: 37-45-1 (45.1%) -6: 62-21-0 (74.7%) +10: 29-53-1 (35.4%) -10: 69-14-0 (83.1%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.1 111.6 33.2 19.0 201.3 1.9 3.7 6.5 4.1 6.4 20.8 Opp 29.6 135.3 32.5 20.0 214.0 1.7 5.7 6.8 5.1 6.6 24.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Raiders Ravens home 6.5 43.0

PLAY ON the away dog when both teams have same record. (on Detroit) also 20-6 ATS if division game

AD and p:A and WP = o:WP and season >= 2005 and game number < 15 and date < 20150927
SU: 33-43-0 (-2.11, 43.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 51-22-3 (2.78, 69.9%) avg line: 4.9 +6: 60-15-1 (80.0%) -6: 28-45-3 (38.4%) +10: 62-13-1 (82.7%) -10: 18-57-1 (24.0%) O/U: 42-31-3 (1.49, 57.5%) avg total: 43.3 +6: 30-44-2 (40.5%) -6: 51-25-0 (67.1%) +10: 20-51-5 (28.2%) -10: 56-20-0 (73.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.0 106.5 33.6 20.1 217.9 1.5 4.4 5.7 5.3 5.9 21.4 Opp 27.9 115.3 34.0 21.4 231.9 1.6 4.0 7.5 5.1 6.6 23.5
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Lions Vikings away 3.0 43.0

OVER any team off a MNF fav loss vs team off SU win. (DAL/PHI over)

p:MNF and p:FL and op:W and p:line > -8 and season > 2000
SU: 16-8-0 (9.12, 66.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 15-9-0 (6.85, 62.5%) avg line: -2.3 +6: 19-5-0 (79.2%) -6: 13-11-0 (54.2%) +10: 20-3-1 (87.0%) -10: 12-12-0 (50.0%) O/U: 20-3-1 (8.75, 87.0%) avg total: 44.9 +6: 11-12-1 (47.8%) -6: 23-1-0 (95.8%) +10: 10-14-0 (41.7%) -10: 24-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 32.2 142.1 35.1 22.4 260.6 1.7 7.5 9.2 6.9 7.6 31.4 Opp 21.0 82.8 36.9 21.7 242.6 2.0 4.1 5.5 5.2 7.5 22.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 20, 2015 Sunday 2 2015 Eagles Cowboys home -5.0 55.0

 

[indiana]

R/T............info much appreciated............BOL this week end..........indy

 

[rolltide]

strange scheduling with SF playing on a short week after west coast game and traveling 3 time zones to play a team that not only played in EST last week but is on extra rest. Had to run some queries to check out the situation and pretty much any query you run shows this is a tough spot


1) team on short or regular rest playing east after winning by DD are 5-18 ATS if less rest than opponent
2) first half of season teams winning in PST and playing with less rest in EST are 1-8 ATS
3) playing EST after blowout win PST (>14 points) while allowing only 0-1 TD = 4-15 ATS
4) teams playing Steelers in EST in non-div game after winning out west are 1-15 SU, 4-10-2 ATS

 

[3pointdog]

strange scheduling with SF playing on a short week after west coast game and traveling 3 time zones to play a team that not only played in EST last week but is on extra rest. Had to run some queries to check out the situation and pretty much any query you run shows this is a tough spot


1) team on short or regular rest playing east after winning by DD are 5-18 ATS if less rest than opponent
2) first half of season teams winning in PST and playing with less rest in EST are 1-8 ATS
3) playing EST after blowout win PST (>14 points) while allowing only 0-1 TD = 4-15 ATS
4) teams playing Steelers in EST in non-div game after winning out west are 1-15 SU, 4-10-2 ATS

good stuff RT. thanks
I was looking at that game as well. But this helps. Thanks pal.

 

[landshark]

rolltide,Thanks for this week's queries and your prior work. Always look forward to your updates.

 

[RDTrains]

More support for Pitt from Power Sweep:

Play Against any Non Conference Away Dog off MNF: 14-3 ATS from 2003

 

[justanobserver]

I am seeing a redflag on the Rams

That's road favorites off of a home dog SU win prior to week 7

AF and p:HD and p:W and season >=2004 and week <=6

SU: 9-10-0 (0.05, 47.4%) Teaser Records
ATS: 6-12-1 (-2.71, 33.3%) avg line: -2.8 +6: 9-7-3 (56.2%) -6: 4-14-1 (22.2%) +10: 13-5-1 (72.2%) -10: 2-16-1 (11.1%)
O/U: 8-11-0 (-0.71, 42.1%) avg total: 41.4 +6: 6-13-0 (31.6%) -6: 12-7-0 (63.2%) +10: 5-14-0 (26.3%) -10: 13-6-0 (68.4%)

 

[justanobserver]

A little more data if you count it as an ATS win

AF and p:HD and p:ATSW and season >= 2004 and week <= 6
SU: 10-12-0 (-1.00, 45.5%) Teaser Records
ATS: 7-14-1 (-3.66, 33.3%) avg line: -2.7 +6: 10-9-3 (52.6%) -6: 4-17-1 (19.0%) +10: 15-6-1 (71.4%) -10: 2-19-1 (9.5%)
O/U: 10-12-0 (0.05, 45.5%) avg total: 40.8 +6: 7-15-0 (31.8%) -6: 15-7-0 (68.2%) +10: 6-16-0 (27.3%) -10: 16-6-0 (72.7%)

 

[richporter]

thanks again RT

 

[rolltide]

week 2 = sides 4-2, totals 2-4-1

UNDER week 3 away teams that won 5+ games last year and started 2-0 (ATL under, CIN under)

week = 3 and tpS(W) >= 5 and p:W and pp:W and A SU: 40-36-0 (-0.01, 52.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 36-37-3 (0.82, 49.3%) avg line: 0.8 +6: 51-23-2 (68.9%) -6: 29-45-2 (39.2%) +10: 57-19-0 (75.0%) -10: 18-54-4 (25.0%) O/U: 26-49-1 (-2.74, 34.7%) avg total: 42.0 +6: 17-59-0 (22.4%) -6: 40-34-2 (54.1%) +10: 13-63-0 (17.1%) -10: 60-15-1 (80.0%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.5 105.3 33.3 19.8 213.2 1.9 3.9 6.0 3.8 5.9 19.6 Opp 27.1 108.3 33.0 19.9 202.0 1.8 3.8 6.8 3.2 5.6 19.6 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Falcons Cowboys away -1.0 44.5 Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Bengals Ravens away 2.5 44.5

play OVER low total on elite team YTD after allowing 3 or less last 1H (CAR over)

po1 + po2 <= 3 and 42 < total < 47 and tA(margin) >= 4 and season > 2009 and p:total < 48
SU: 47-41-0 (0.98, 53.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-46-3 (-1.59, 45.9%) avg line: -2.6 +6: 54-32-2 (62.8%) -6: 26-60-2 (30.2%) +10: 62-24-2 (72.1%) -10: 18-68-2 (20.9%) O/U: 66-21-1 (5.91, 75.9%) avg total: 44.4 +6: 48-39-1 (55.2%) -6: 71-16-1 (81.6%) +10: 33-54-1 (37.9%) -10: 77-11-0 (87.5%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.5 108.5 34.0 21.6 237.8 1.5 4.4 8.2 5.8 7.1 25.6 Opp 26.9 113.8 35.5 21.8 248.3 1.6 5.1 7.3 5.3 6.8 24.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Panthers Saints home -3.0 45.0

UNDER non-conf game with at least 1 team <.500 (NYJ over, HOU over) note:HOU over falls into several nice tighteners

not C and date > 20121101 and H and (WP < 50 or o:WP < 50) and date < 20150930
SU: 55-48-0 (0.68, 53.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 41-60-2 (-1.67, 40.6%) avg line: -2.3 +6: 61-40-2 (60.4%) -6: 29-73-1 (28.4%) +10: 74-26-3 (74.0%) -10: 24-79-0 (23.3%) O/U: 74-28-1 (5.22, 72.5%) avg total: 45.4 +6: 48-53-2 (47.5%) -6: 83-19-1 (81.4%) +10: 33-68-2 (32.7%) -10: 89-13-1 (87.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.1 111.7 36.7 23.5 255.3 1.7 5.2 7.2 5.2 7.9 25.7 Opp 26.9 117.9 34.0 20.5 225.7 1.5 5.1 7.7 5.9 6.3 25.0
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Jets Eagles home -2.0 47.0 Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Texans Buccaneers home -6.5 40.5

p1 + p2 <= 3 and HD and opoints >= 32
SU: 60-86-0 (-2.89, 41.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 87-54-5 (3.11, 61.7%) avg line: 6.0 +6: 116-29-1 (80.0%) -6: 58-81-7 (41.7%) +10: 126-19-1 (86.9%) -10: 37-107-2 (25.7%) O/U: 82-62-2 (1.87, 56.9%) avg total: 42.9 +6: 49-94-3 (34.3%) -6: 105-41-0 (71.9%) +10: 34-109-3 (23.8%) -10: 115-29-2 (79.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 27.5 116.4 32.1 18.9 207.0 1.9 4.2 6.1 4.5 6.0 20.9 Opp 27.1 110.7 34.3 21.3 247.4 1.7 4.8 7.4 5.3 6.3 23.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Rams Steelers home 1.0 47.5

oppose big away dogs after b2b home dog and a win (on PATS)

A and p:HDW and pp:HD and line > 4.5
SU: 7-52-0 (-13.02, 11.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 18-40-1 (-4.24, 31.0%) avg line: 8.8 +6: 33-24-2 (57.9%) -6: 11-48-0 (18.6%) +10: 40-18-1 (69.0%) -10: 7-52-0 (11.9%) O/U: 26-32-1 (0.04, 44.8%) avg total: 40.5 +6: 15-43-1 (25.9%) -6: 39-20-0 (66.1%) +10: 11-48-0 (18.6%) -10: 47-11-1 (81.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 24.5 101.0 32.2 17.7 175.1 1.9 2.1 3.9 2.6 5.0 13.7 Opp 32.2 131.8 31.6 18.8 211.7 1.4 5.2 8.0 6.2 7.4 26.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Jaguars Patriots away 13.5 47.5

PLAY ON close lined away teams after terrible rushing performance (on ATL, on PHI)

-4 < line < 5.5 and p:rushing yards <= 60 and A and season >= 2004 and op:rushing yards <= 135
SU: 73-37-0 (3.74, 66.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 72-35-3 (4.71, 67.3%) avg line: 1.0 +6: 90-19-1 (82.6%) -6: 45-58-7 (43.7%) +10: 99-10-1 (90.8%) -10: 34-76-0 (30.9%) O/U: 49-61-0 (-0.07, 44.5%) avg total: 42.5 +6: 28-82-0 (25.5%) -6: 75-31-4 (70.8%) +10: 21-89-0 (19.1%) -10: 89-19-2 (82.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 28.4 112.4 34.1 20.9 232.9 1.5 4.8 6.6 5.3 6.2 23.1 Opp 25.9 110.7 35.4 20.6 212.3 1.8 4.2 6.1 3.5 5.6 19.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Falcons Cowboys away -1.0 44.5 Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Eagles Jets away 2.0 47.0

OPPOSE OAK off a good offensive cover. (on CLE)

team = Raiders and pooints >= 22 and p:ats margin >= 6 and date > 20021010
SU: 2-17-0 (-12.05, 10.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 0-18-1 (-9.55, 0.0%) avg line: 2.5 +6: 9-10-0 (47.4%) -6: 0-19-0 (0.0%) +10: 12-7-0 (63.2%) -10: 0-19-0 (0.0%) O/U: 9-9-1 (0.26, 50.0%) avg total: 45.3 +6: 7-12-0 (36.8%) -6: 13-6-0 (68.4%) +10: 4-14-1 (22.2%) -10: 15-4-0 (78.9%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 22.2 89.8 36.6 20.6 206.6 2.0 3.8 5.3 2.6 4.8 16.7 Opp 32.6 137.4 32.9 19.4 223.0 1.2 4.2 7.9 7.4 9.3 28.8
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Raiders Browns away 3.5 42.0

UNDER giants playing DIV team for first time in season, at home (NYG under)

team = Giants and H and line > -6.5 and DIV and season = P:season + 1 and 19991001 <= date
SU: 9-5-0 (4.07, 64.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 7-7-0 (2.14, 50.0%) avg line: -1.9 +6: 10-4-0 (71.4%) -6: 4-9-1 (30.8%) +10: 11-3-0 (78.6%) -10: 3-11-0 (21.4%) O/U: 1-12-1 (-11.29, 7.7%) avg total: 42.6 +6: 0-14-0 (0.0%) -6: 4-10-0 (28.6%) +10: 0-14-0 (0.0%) -10: 7-7-0 (50.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 29.9 117.9 34.8 19.7 193.6 1.3 2.1 6.9 5.2 3.5 17.7 Opp 26.0 100.1 30.4 16.7 172.4 2.0 1.9 4.3 3.1 4.4 13.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 24, 2015 Thursday 3 2015 Giants Redskins home -4.0 43.5

week 3 OPPOSE home fav or small home who have yet to play a game vs a team with a win this year and opponent <=10 wins LY (on KC, on CIN)

week = 3 and line < 3 and po:wins = 0 and H and ppo:wins = 0 and o:wins > 0 and season > 1995 and oRSW < 11
SU: 28-37-0 (-2.38, 43.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 13-51-1 (-6.77, 20.3%) avg line: -4.4 +6: 28-33-4 (45.9%) -6: 9-56-0 (13.8%) +10: 42-20-3 (67.7%) -10: 4-61-0 (6.2%) O/U: 35-30-0 (1.33, 53.8%) avg total: 42.0 +6: 21-43-1 (32.8%) -6: 46-19-0 (70.8%) +10: 17-48-0 (26.2%) -10: 54-10-1 (84.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 26.8 112.6 34.8 21.1 225.9 2.3 4.5 6.1 3.8 6.0 20.5 Opp 28.1 107.2 32.5 19.4 217.7 1.3 4.7 6.4 4.2 7.3 22.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 28, 2015 Monday 3 2015 Packers Chiefs home -7.0 48.0 Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Ravens Bengals home -2.5 44.5

oppose teams off home dog win allowing more points than expected in non-div game (on CLE)

p:HDW and NDIV and p:dpa >= 0
SU: 19-52-0 (-8.11, 26.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 21-49-1 (-5.71, 30.0%) avg line: 2.4 +6: 37-31-3 (54.4%) -6: 7-62-2 (10.1%) +10: 50-21-0 (70.4%) -10: 5-65-1 (7.1%) O/U: 41-28-2 (3.99, 59.4%) avg total: 42.3 +6: 30-41-0 (42.3%) -6: 53-17-1 (75.7%) +10: 23-48-0 (32.4%) -10: 58-13-0 (81.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 25.8 109.5 33.3 19.6 212.9 2.0 3.4 5.9 4.4 5.4 19.1 Opp 30.9 132.6 31.6 19.2 229.8 1.3 5.4 8.5 5.5 7.7 27.2
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 27, 2015 Sunday 3 2015 Raiders Browns away 3.5 42.0

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON unbeaten MNF home teams that scored 24+ last week (on GB) note: 15-1-1 if non-div game like this week

MNF and H and losses = 0 and week > 1 and date < 20151001 and points > 23
SU: 31-6-0 (10.95, 83.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 29-7-1 (6.31, 80.6%) avg line: -4.6 +6: 32-4-1 (88.9%) -6: 17-17-3 (50.0%) +10: 34-3-0 (91.9%) -10: 16-21-0 (43.2%) O/U: 16-21-0 (-0.18, 43.2%) avg total: 44.4 +6: 14-23-0 (37.8%) -6: 26-11-0 (70.3%) +10: 7-30-0 (18.9%) -10: 29-7-1 (80.6%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 29.2 119.9 30.7 20.1 225.4 1.4 6.4 8.0 5.9 7.2 27.6 Opp 23.2 95.3 35.2 20.9 228.8 2.3 4.2 5.3 2.5 4.6 16.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 28, 2015 Monday 3 2015 Packers Chiefs home -7.0 48.0

 

[3pointdog]

RT you have conflicting angles on KC and GB. Both look good. Which is better to look at??

 

[rolltide]

neither really. this is the one game i keep flipping back and forth on in my "pick em all" contest. KC has to rebound from a total implosion vs conference rival on national tv while GB in a big letdown spot vs non-conference team after beating the team, on national tv, that kept them from super bowl LY. It's a 6.5 at that contest so been flipping back and forth. right now the toggle is on"KC" but i have until 8pm tonight to change it. toughest game on the board IMHO

 

[3pointdog]

both angles look great!!!