NFL System Plays

[sds23]

Since people seem to enjoy various "system" plays, I thought I would re-introduce these NFL system plays to the forum. There are certain years that these particular system plays do extremeley well. And there are years (like last season) when these plays barely hold their head above water.

These plays are designed to be played over the 8 or 9 weeks of each season (I typically start looking at them from about week 5 or 6 onward just to see if they are heating up or not).

Anyway, here is the information about these systems from a thread of mine from a previous year:

 

[sds23]

NFL System Plays

Once week 5 passes I like to keep an eye on two different NFL Systems that have proven profitable at times in the past. Week 5 is an important hurdle since both systems depend on having enough wins and losses accumulated in oder to be relevant to the success and premise of the systems.

These systems should not be played if the 2-Time Zone filter is invoked, if they collide with another system, or if any other major red flags present themselves.

Here's a brief overview of each system:

The 500 System

This is one of my favorite systems, since it is so simple. This system can be streaky at times and tends to gain more momentum as the season matures.

As I said, the premise is simple: Wager on the side (ATS) of any team with a sub-.500 record who is playing against a team with an above .500 record.

The False Dog System

Another simple system where you wager on the side (ATS) of any dog (road dog or home dog) that has a better record than their opponent.

I have seen variations of this system where you actually wager the ML on any dog (road or home) with a better record than their opponent. In the past I have played this one 50% ATS and 50% ML, depending on what my gut says. I have not done the math to see which method would be more profitable (ATS versus ML) if a person committed themselve 100% to one or the other.

 

[sds23]

Here are the qualifying system plays pertaining to the system described above:

500 System

CIN
SF
STL
KC
OAK
CLE
SEA

Dog System

DEN
BUF*

*In some cases you will need to wait until gameday to see where the line actually settles. BUF started as a +1 dog, but is now favored -1 in a few spots. This may not be a qualified Dog System play when all is said and done.

 

[sds23]

In case you are wondering, I am merely observing these system plays this week. Any one of these plays that does indeed make it onto my card in my other thread is due to other factors and capping methods and not these systems.

 

[ajreeb]

You know I love a good system.
Glad to see the return of some of my favorites.

One I like to follow (although I did get burnt once by it this year) is betting on a team off a 20+ point win and playing at home. It's 24-9ats over the last 2 years and it hits at an even higher percentage when the team they are playing against is off a SU loss.

This week TB is a play.

 

[sds23]

You know I love a good system.
Glad to see the return of some of my favorites.

One I like to follow (although I did get burnt once by it this year) is betting on a team off a 20+ point win and playing at home. It's 24-9ats over the last 2 years and it hits at an even higher percentage when the team they are playing against is off a SU loss.

This week TB is a play.

Now THAT'S a sweet trend. Thanks buddy. I may have to take a chance on that one. :toast:

 

[ajreeb]

Now THAT'S a sweet trend. Thanks buddy. I may have to take a chance on that one. :toast:

It's been a consistant winner, but I'm always a bit nervous playing it against a DD spread. Got burnt this year playing it with NYG-13 v. CIN.
However, playing against Seatle on the road this year is never a bad pick, so I will probably make TB a small play this week as well.
Good luck if you decide to make it a play!

 

[sds23]

It's been a consistant winner, but I'm always a bit nervous playing it against a DD spread. Got burnt this year playing it with NYG-13 v. CIN.
However, playing against Seatle on the road this year is never a bad pick, so I will probably make TB a small play this week as well.
Good luck if you decide to make it a play!

I know what you mean. I guess I temporarily forgot what the spread was, since this was not a game previously on my radar. And a DD spread is always a major mental block that needs to bet confidently or not at all.

It is a great spot for TB with their home field and a lousy road team coming to visit. But my capping is only giving TB about a 7 point edge. This has been a rough year so far for some other once prominent systems. Perhaps we should watch this one from the sideline, just like these 500 and Dog Systems. Test the water first.

 

[skidmrk]

Thanks for the work.Good luck

 

[sds23]

Thanks for the work.Good luck

Thank you and you are welcome skid.

 

[sds23]

Week 7 Results

500 System

CIN LOSER
SF LOSER
STL WINNER & SU ML WINNER
KC LOSER
OAK WINNER & SU ML WINNER
CLE WINNER
SEA WINNER

Dog System

DEN LOSER
BUF WINNER & SU ML WINNER

---------------------------------------------------

Records

500 System......4~3 with 2 SU winners*

Dog System......1~1 with 1 SU winner

*Technically the SF and the SEA games should have been "no plays" since they violated the "flying through 2-time zones rule".

Adjusted Records

500 System......3~2 with 2 SU winners

Dog System......1~1 with 1 SU winner

 

[ajreeb]

For tracking purposes only...
There are several games that fall into the "Previous Win by 20+ points and Home" trend in Week 8.

CAR-4 v. ARZ
PIT-2 v. NYG
TEN-3 v. IND
NE-4 v. STL

Went back and refined the trend a bit to NOT include DD(double digit) FAV's and the result over the last 2 years is 20-6 ats.

Then for the heck of it, I tried it NO DD favs and opponent off a SU loss.
10-1 ats over the last 2 years. That makes Tenny look like a solid "trend" play.

 

[Piks]

I saw 500 system a couple of years ago from someone else.

They recommended you play it Weeks 9 -16. (no plays Week 17)

Adding your 2 time zones to it might give a higher win percentage.

Gl
Piks

 

[sds23]

I saw 500 system a couple of years ago from someone else.

They recommended you play it Weeks 9 -16. (no plays Week 17)

Adding your 2 time zones to it might give a higher win percentage.

Gl
Piks

You are correct Piks. I ran into this system probably about 5 years ago and that was indeed the original intent of the system. Then about 3 years ago I decided to begin looking at such system plays at an ever increasing start point each and every season. It occurred to me that with parity and some of the other changes in the league that such system plays (orignally intended for later in the season) could merit ea;rier attention and be emplyed at an earlier point in time.

The fly zone rule and not playing it versus other system (of equal ro greater value) hopefully prevent a few more casualties along the way.

BOL to sir. :toast:

 

[sds23]

Just another added thought about these systems. Some years these systems kick ass and some years they don't. And regardless of the overall performance for any given year, these systems definitely go through streaks during each individual season.

Obviously the only way to track them is to track them in the manner that I am tracking them (each and every week, starting in week 5, for the entire season).

However, there have been years where my best success was applying these systems within my overall capping process. In other words, due diligence is performed from multiple perspectives (statistical, situational, etc.) and a sort of a matrix sheet is created. And "yes" or "no" in accordance to whether or not a game falls under one of these systems is recorded onto the matrix.

In other words, if a game looks like a good play on its own merit, then having it also fit under a particular system makes it a stronger play or more of a "must" play.

When these systems are hot, they can be followed blindly (no matter how crazy the plays seem). But when the systems are not hot, then there's still value when it is being used amongst many other factors in a matrix sheet application.

I have no idea what the rest of this season holds as far as success for these systems. This year has gotten off to a prett good start for them ~ especially when you look at how many ML winners they are producing (if a person were bold enough to play the ML in these games.)

I will copy and paste the weekly results that I posted in the newly created "week 8" systems thread since it seems that this thread is the one that people are viewing and asking questions in.

 

[sds23]

You know I love a good system.
Glad to see the return of some of my favorites.

One I like to follow (although I did get burnt once by it this year) is betting on a team off a 20+ point win and playing at home. It's 24-9ats over the last 2 years and it hits at an even higher percentage when the team they are playing against is off a SU loss.

This week TB is a play.

That was incredibly close to being a winner AJ. A bit of a backdoor by SEA in game that was dominated early by TB.

 

[sds23]

For tracking purposes only...
There are several games that fall into the "Previous Win by 20+ points and Home" trend in Week 8.

CAR-4 v. ARZ
PIT-2 v. NYG
TEN-3 v. IND
NE-4 v. STL

Went back and refined the trend a bit to NOT include DD(double digit) FAV's and the result over the last 2 years is 20-6 ats.

Then for the heck of it, I tried it NO DD favs and opponent off a SU loss.
10-1 ats over the last 2 years. That makes Tenny look like a solid "trend" play.

Let's keep an eye on these AJ. I suppose we could track the "20 Point System" both ways (including and excluding the DD spreads).

 

[sds23]

System Records (By Week)

Week Five

500 System
CIN Winner ATS
KC Loser ATS

Dog System
PIT Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
WA Winner ATS & SU ML Winner

Week Five Records

500 System
1~1 ATS

Dog System
2~0 ATS with 2 SU ML Winners

-------------------------------------------

Week Six

500 System
CLE Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
SD Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
JAX Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
STL Winner ATS & SU ML Winner

Dog System
GB Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
CAR Loser ATS
BAL Loser ATS

Week Six Records

500 System
4~0 ATS with 4 SU ML Winners

Dog System
1~2 ATS with 1 SU ML Winner

-------------------------------------------
Week Seven

500 System
CIN Loser ATS
STL Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
KC Loser ATS
OAK Winner ATS & SU ML Winner
CLE Winner ATS

Dog System
DEN LOSER
BUF Winner ATS & SU ML Winner

Week Seven Records

500 System
3~2 ATS with 2 SU ML Winners

Dog System
1~1 ATS with 1 SU ML Winner

--------------------------------------------

Overall Season Records

500 System
8~3 ATS with 6 SU ML Winners

Dog System
4~3 ATS with 4 SU ML Winners
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[sds23]

Week 8 System Plays

Week 8 System Plays

500 System
DET
MIA
STL

Dog System
ATL



Watch to see what the TB line opens up as. If TB happens to be the Dog, then they will qualify as a Dog System play.





Overall Season Records

500 System
8~3 ATS with 6 SU ML Winners

Dog System
4~3 ATS with 4 SU ML Winners

 

[sds23]

Week 8 System Plays

500 System
DET
MIA
STL

Dog System
ATL


Watch to see what the TB line opens up as. If TB happens to be the Dog, then they will qualify as a Dog System play.


Overall Season Records

500 System
8~3 ATS with 6 SU ML Winners

Dog System
4~3 ATS with 4 SU ML Winners

TB did indeed get Dog status and are therefore a qualified play this week.


Week 8 System Plays

500 System
DET
MIA
STL

Dog System
ATL
TB





Overall Season Records

500 System
8~3 ATS with 6 SU ML Winners

Dog System
4~3 ATS with 4 SU ML Winners
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