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15 UNITs Houston/Baltimore OVER 43

Please note that I've already put down 20 UNITs on this game earlier this week at 41 1/2, and plan on middling this total at around 44-44 1/2 (if it gets there) with 5 UNITs, leaving the remainder 15 UNITs at 41 1/2.

My typical UNITs are from 3 to 5 per play. I really like this bet. The weather is perfect.

As I've mentioned earlier, the last 3 games by Baltimore shows that Flacco is quickly becoming very comfortable with this offense. His numbers are not the greatest but combined with the rushing numbers, shows that Baltimore's offense should score competently from here on out. Ravens have scored 27, 29, & 37 last 3 games. Whether it be Rice, McClain, or McGahee, Baltimore should be able to run the ball with ease in this game while giving Flacco plenty of protection against a swiss cheese Houston defense. Flacco is last week's AFC Offensive Player of the Week. This offense is clicking.

Meanwhile, Rosenfels will start for Houston this afternoon, and IMO Sage is superior to Matt Schaub in every aspect of the game. Texans are just stuck with Schaub's big contract, else they should start Rosenfels. This guy is just flat out good and will kill Baltimore's "#2" defense today. Houston's defense can't stop anyone, but no one can stop Houston's offense either.

Many people blame Rosenfels for his miscues in the last 3 minutes against Indy, but don't forget it was Rosenfels who put them up 27-10 against the Colts. Rosenfels was masterful last year going 4-1 in Schaub's absence. This guy can just flat out throw the ball.

Houston has gone OVER in every game this year, with the exception of the Cincin game in which the hapless Bengals refuse to score time and again. Houston had to settle for a 35-6 win, going UNDER by 4 points. The 43 posted in this game is rather low for a Houston total.

Meanwhile Baltimore has gone OVER 3 straight with the emergence of their offense. You can feel that the Ravens are deviating from a typically Billick drive of RUN RUN PASS - Stover. Harbaugh has the team way ahead of schedule and it should be clear that Baltimore is NO LONGER a 34 1/2 TOTAL kind of team. Baltimore is an OVER team from here on out.

Baltimore 31
Houston 28

15 UNITs OVER 43 Baltimore/Houston

good luck to all

michael
 

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Nice write up, I've been eyeballing this all week; I might make it a play.
 

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Injury notes:

Houston has several KEY defensive players out. Top tackler LB Diles (broken tibia).

Demeco is also hurting. Ryans is probably their best gap run stopper.

m
 

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Texans had it first and goal on the 1 and threw a pick. Shuld have been 14 points scored and still in the 1st quarter.
 

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Texans had it first and goal on the 1 and threw a pick. Shuld have been 14 points scored and still in the 1st quarter.

Double whammy. I'm on Houston too. At least they are finally on the board...hopefully we can get another 7 before the half.
 

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:money8::money8::money8: Had me nervous for a while but nice call....Thanks for the winner!
 

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