NFL Semifinals

[dsong]

Early look:

Atlanta -4 over Green Bay (61)

Projected lines:

New England -7 over Kansas City
New England -6 over Pittsburgh

My lines:

Atlanta -3
New England -7 over Kansas City
New England -6 over Pittsburgh

My future book odds:

If Kansas City wins:
New England 0.460
Atlanta 0.237
Green Bay 0.163
Kansas City 0.139

If Pittsburgh wins:
New England 0.435
Atlanta 0.232
Pittsburgh 0.174
Green Bay 0.159

I think the Atlanta line is too high. Total is ridiculous as well. I understand that Atlanta has played a ton of shootouts at home but you have to draw the line somewhere. At 61 that line has been crossed. Atlanta is also an inconsistent team and don't have the advantage of a bye this time. I think the two teams are pretty even so home field figures to be the only advantage Atlanta has in this contest.

As for the other game, New England will probably be undervalued against either team; I would recommend laying points unless it crosses the key numbers.

New England will almost certainly be undervalued in the futures market so you may have one more opportunity to buy low on the Patriots.

 

[Ttratter]

way to crazy to worry about what if's

 

[dsong]

You have to be prepared ahead of time so you can grab weak numbers at the gun. People already picked off Green Bay +5.

 

[TimmyRules]

Down to 60 on some - took under and will see how much it drops and will try to middle

 

[KennyB]

60 is a huge number. unbelievable. Lean towards G Bay plus the points.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

The total is ridiculous. Probably the highest ever.

Atl were -2.5 vs greenbay early in the year and barely won and now are now -4 even though greenbay is on a streak. Hmmm

You want to talk about underrated? Atlanta at home is the most underrated Home field advantage in the nfl over the last five years

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

The total is ridiculous. Probably the highest ever.

Atl were -2.5 vs greenbay early in the year and barely won and now are now -4 even though greenbay is on a streak. Hmmm

You want to talk about underrated? Atlanta at home is the most underrated Home field advantage in the nfl over the last five years

Statistically you're probably right but I'd be very careful buying into that narrative because there's a sense of timing about Atl right now and that home crowd was as loud as any, I'll bet the Atl D makes a couple of big plays being energised by that crowd....the GB secondary is in tatters and will get smoked

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Statistically you're probably right but I'd be very careful buying into that narrative because there's a sense of timing about Atl right now and that home crowd was as loud as any, I'll bet the Atl D makes a couple of big plays being energised by that crowd....the GB secondary is in tatters and will get smoked

Trust me that is the most basic angle I am looking at. I can't even explain it but I was about to lose interest if there wasn't some games I really loved. Atlanta is a fucking lock bro. And pats will 100% not cover in the superbowl so most likely that means forget about them winning it. They bow out this week. Fate will take over

 

[WinnersareGrinners]

Trust me that is the most basic angle I am looking at. I can't even explain it but I was about to lose interest if there wasn't some games I really loved. Atlanta is a fucking lock bro. And pats will 100% not cover in the superbowl so most likely that means forget about them winning it. They bow out this week. Fate will take over

I'm feeling the same way on Atl, also if they beat gb I think it's a nice edge for them with the SB in a dome on a fast track, they hung 36 on seattle and to be honest weren't even close to playing at their best

 

[dsong]

My projected Super Bowl lines:

Line will be the same regardless of who comes out of the NFC.

New England -4
Pittsburgh -1

History may repeat itself and New England wins by 3 or 4.

 

[dsong]

As for the total, I'm expecting somewhere around 51, regardless of which teams are in the Super Bowl.

 

[dsong]

The total is ridiculous. Probably the highest ever.

Atl were -2.5 vs greenbay early in the year and barely won and now are now -4 even though greenbay is on a streak. Hmmm

You want to talk about underrated? Atlanta at home is the most underrated Home field advantage in the nfl over the last five years

Huh?

Last 5 seasons against the spread at home:

2016 4-5
2015 3-5
2014 4-4
2013 4-4
2012 4-4

Total: 19-22

 

[dsong]

Compare that with New England at home:

2016 7-2
2015 5-2
2014 6-4
2013 7-2
2012 5-5

Total: 30-15

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Huh?

Last 5 seasons against the spread at home:

2016 4-5
2015 3-5
2014 4-4
2013 4-4
2012 4-4

Total: 19-22

Whats their w/l since 2009-2010 season at home? That catches up with everyone. I need their w/l record at home.

I said 5 years but time flies. Them, Cincinnati, and then the ravens are the three most underrated Home field advantages in the entire nfl. Underrated means not talked about. Not enough credit. Ppl talk about greenbay, seattle, new england, new Orleans at home. I'm surprised at that ats record you listed but you play to win the game so I'd be more interested in how they did su

 

[dsong]

Straight-up:
Year Home Away
2016 6-3 6-2
2015 4-4 4-4
2014 3-5 3-5
2013 3-5 1-7
2012 8-2 6-2

Total 24-19 20-20

Not that impressive if you ask me.

The Saints used to be great at home too, not so much anymore. Falcons may be in the same boat.

 

[dsong]

Here are New England's numbers:

2016 7-2 8-0
2015 8-1 5-4
2014 9-1 5-3
2013 9-0 4-5
2012 7-3 6-2

Total 43-7 28-14

Those are some killer numbers.

 

[XSPower]

Have a great week my friend....

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Straight-up:
Year Home Away
2016 6-3 6-2
2015 4-4 4-4
2014 3-5 3-5
2013 3-5 1-7
2012 8-2 6-2

Total 24-19 20-20

Not that impressive if you ask me.

The Saints used to be great at home too, not so much anymore. Falcons may be in the same boat.

6-2 su in 09

7-1 su in 2010

6-2 su in 2011


Had to look myself

 

[dsong]

FYI, I had the under in the GB/ATL game and New England minus the points in the late game.