***** Nfl Playoffs---Wild Card Round *****

[TheComputerGroup]

Will tally up my record later tonight........


Let's look at the playoffs.......after 17 exciting nNFL weeks we've cone down to what really counts.......no more scrub fest games, at least I hope not.

I find the divisional round is better certain years.......I will have to look deep into the wildcard round & see if I can dig up any trends, etc........



Chiefs -3 at Texans........line opened -3.5 & got bet down quickly.

Steelers -2.5 at Bengals.......line got bet down from opening line of -3.

Seattle -5.5 at Vikings.......line moved a whole 2 points from opening -3.5. Is there much of a difference from -3.5 & -5.5? It could fall on a key number of 4, & IMO, this is the fishiest game of all four wildcard games.........IMO, this line should be Seattle -3........Vikings are 13-3 ATS this season......hottest team vs the spread.

Skins -1 vs Gbay........line hasn't budged at all.......Ihave a futures on Gbay to win it all........IMO, Gbay won't even get to the championship game.



Be back to break these games down.......

 

[XENO]

wash has been playing great-gb is in a funk. can cinncy beat pitt 3 times in one year.past says no way.very very hard to do.
also after vikes game with gb an what seattles has been doing.the big money will be on seahawks fpr sure imho

 

[chonce]

My first thought is to bet on mostly home teams, although I still don't know the status of Dalton. I think KC and SEA will both be huge public plays. Pitt, too, depending on Dalton.

 

[XENO]

I agree chonce

 

[TheComputerGroup]

wash has been playing great-gb is in a funk. can cinncy beat pitt 3 times in one year.past says no way.very very hard to do.
also after vikes game with gb an what seattles has been doing.the big money will be on seahawks fpr sure imho

Pitt & Cinci split the series.....the road team won each game........when Pitt won the SB in 2005, they went I to Cinci & beat them with Cinci's injured Qb.

AJ Mcarron is a pretty good back up......& Cinci has a better defense than they did back in 2005.


As Chonce stated, basically the whole world will be on Pitt & Seattle IMO.......as for KC, the public will be on them too, but the public usually wins that first game, & KC is just on a mission winning 10 str & has the all around better everything......

 

[tulah]

My first thought is to bet on mostly home teams, although I still don't know the status of Dalton. I think KC and SEA will both be huge public plays. Pitt, too, depending on Dalton.

You left out what is gonna be the biggest public play of the week.
Green Bay.
Yesterday at the bar id say just about all of the folks said "GB will kill the Skins".
the Redskins was a solid home team this season.

As a skins fan this is the match up I hoped for.

HTTR

 

[TheComputerGroup]

You left out what is gonna be the biggest public play of the week.
Green Bay.
Yesterday at the bar id say just about all of the folks said "GB will kill the Skins".
the Redskins was a solid home team this season.

As a skins fan this is the match up I hoped for.

HTTR

Very true dude......Rodgers vs Cousins? The whole world will choose Rodgers & Gbay........

 

[XENO]

wow I'm glad you straightened me out on that.thought cinccy took both games.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Will tally up my record later tonight........


Let's look at the playoffs.......after 17 exciting nNFL weeks we've cone down to what really counts.......no more scrub fest games, at least I hope not.

I find the divisional round is better certain years.......I will have to look deep into the wildcard round & see if I can dig up any trends, etc........



Chiefs -3 at Texans........line opened -3.5 & got bet down quickly.

Steelers -2.5 at Bengals.......line got bet down from opening line of -3.

Seattle -5.5 at Vikings.......line moved a whole 2 points from opening -3.5. Is there much of a difference from -3.5 & -5.5? It could fall on a key number of 4, & IMO, this is the fishiest game of all four wildcard games.........IMO, this line should be Seattle -3........Vikings are 13-3 ATS this season......hottest team vs the spread.

Skins -1 vs Gbay........line hasn't budged at all.......Ihave a futures on Gbay to win it all........IMO, Gbay won't even get to the championship game.



Be back to break these games down.......

I was watching the lines open at my book and I will tell you they opened at Steelers -1.5 and Chiefs -2..... they were bet up within a few minutes.

I think you are right about Seattle opening at 3.5 though. Mind telling me where you are getting that opening line info from? thanks

 

[seer]

what is fishy about the hawks line? -3.5 = 6.5 neut and 9.5 or -10.5 at home (some experts believe that seattle homefield is worth more than the traditional 3pts)
line looks right to me even 4.5=7.5 neut and -10.5 home

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I was watching the lines open at my book and I will tell you they opened at Steelers -1.5 and Chiefs -2..... they were bet up within a few minutes.

I think you are right about Seattle opening at 3.5 though. Mind telling me where you are getting that opening line info from? thanks

Vegas insider........I always go by what Vegas sports books open the lines up at, never what offshore books open at...........

 

[XENO]

go to sbrodds an they give all the offshores there. vegasinsider gives offshores and vegas.both great sites

 

[XENO]

sunday night vegas gives out a VIP line that only high rollers and certain people can play -then they adjust there lines accordingly from what I read. then the opening line goes to bookmaker (bet cris) were the offshorline originates, that's what I heard. not sure if that is all true.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

sunday night vegas gives out a VIP line that only high rollers and certain people can play -then they adjust there lines accordingly from what I read. then the opening line goes to bookmaker (bet cris) were the offshorline originates, that's what I heard. not sure if that is all true.

You're absolutely right about certain high rollers getting to bet first before the public in Vegas, then they put out the line........I was told the exact same scenario by the Stardust sports book manager back in 2002.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Adding a 3 team 10 point teaser:



Texans +13......Seattle +4.5.........Skins +10...............(Large)



I won't be going too big in the 1st round..........I do think Vikings may cover, but Seattle wins SU.


I will have write-ups on the games tomorrow or Wed.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

X-Large: 111-113
Large: 67-48



A very nice week 17...........now let's focus on the playoffs!

 

[chonce]

One thing about this week is that I think any team would have a chance to win any game. There is no game that seems in the bank as far as winning SU -- SEA may be the closest but on the road, coming off two huge wins, the Vikings can win. I think generally speaking, in these cases, taking the home teams makes the most sense. But I have exception -- I think I will be with the squares on KC. 1) I want to bet it early in case it goes to 3.5 and 2) they are playing the best football.

I am also shell-shocked from taking Cinci in a playoff game last year. I felt so dumb -- of course the Bengals were going to lose, I said. So honestly, I might just pass on Pitt/Cinci. Cinci is a tempting home dog, but Marvin Lewis seems to be allergic to winning in January. Oddly, I think Wash might be my favorite play of the week. If you would of told me during week 1 that I would take the Skins, with confidence, over the Packers in the playoffs I would have laughed.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Let's look at the first game on tap for the playoffs..........


Chiefs -3 at Texans


Teams that have a winning streak of 8 or more games going into the playoffs is 0-7 ATS in their 1st playoff game (from Rolltides thread)............the Chiefs are red hot winning 10 str games.

The Texans have won 7 of their past 10 games, not too shabby.


Texans won 34-6 two weeks ago & 30-6 last week..........their defense did very well.....it was against their pathetic defense, but nonetheless, NFL teams.

I will dig deeper into this game, but I'm starting to like the Texans.

I ccan't remember the last time the Chiefs won a playoff game........iI know they're 0-3 past 10 years......& let's not forget the huge lead they had on the Colts several years ago & lost the game.

 

[seer]

also u might want to check andy reid's playoff record

 

[TheComputerGroup]

also u might want to check andy reid's playoff record

I will, but just checked the Chiefs, they are 0-6 ATS past 6 playoff games.......& that goes back over 15 years.


Andy Reid coached these Chiefs 2 years ago when they had their huge meltdown at Indi in the playoffs.......