Ravens @ Dolphins
Play: Dolphins +3.5
Comment:
At the beginning of the season, I labeled both the Ravens and Dolphins as my sleeper teams. Since week 1, I have been stating the Ravens will have if not the best defense in the league, something very close to it. Combined with an expected solid running game, I thought the Ravens had a very good chance of making the playoffs despite what their O/U win total would suggest. What I did not expect out of the Ravens was solid play from their rookie quarterback. Even as bullish as I have been on the Ravens, they have slightly surpassed my expectations.
I have also been consistently backing the Dolphins, labeling them the best team in their division even when they were in last place. I said their underrated defense, solid play from their quarterback and above average running game was flying under the radar and being masked by Favre’s publicity and the Patriots attentions. Both those teams will be watching the Dolphins play a home playoff game.
Pros:
Value: Although the Ravens have consistently been one of the most undervalued teams this season, market perception has slowly been catching up to their true worth. Although their ATS performances far surpasses that of the Dolphins, as an ongoing concern, I feel it is the Dolphins team who is not getting the respect by the market place. This line appears to be the epitome of such, as it is pricing a rookie quarterback as more than a field goal road favorite against a home team that finished out the season winning nine of their last ten. The market priced the Ravens as road favorites just once all season. That was against the Bengals. They were priced as road dogs against the Texans and Browns. They were also priced as three point road dogs against the Dolphins earlier in the season. Season their first meeting, the Dolphins went 9-1, a better record than the Ravens. Is a 6.5 point shift I price warranted (and bypassing two key numbers)? The Dolphins are a team built to keep games close. They play the role of underdog are small favorite (less than three points) much better than a large favorite. As the former role, they went 7-3 ATS. The latter? 1-5.
Fundamentals: Probably the only facet of this game that will be stepping on the field and can be construed below average would be the Ravens passing game. Although Flacco surpassed expectations, the Ravens pass offense left a lot to be desired, especially against the better defenses they faced. Add the added pressure in which Flacco may face playing in a road playoff game, and Ravens will be forced to rely heavily on the ground game for success. As mentioned before, power running games depreciate in the playoffs as teams tackling ability improves. The Ravens are construed as such a running game. Add the Dolphins leverage in adding an 8<SUP>th</SUP> man in the box to force Flacco to throw, and the Ravens will find it difficult to move the ball on the ground as well. Expect a lot of prematurely stalled drives from the Ravens offense that should set up their counterparts offense with good field position that wont demand them to produce long drives to put points in the board.
There is little fundamental advantages left for an offense that has to face the best (or one of the top three defenses) in football. The Ravens are as well rounded as it gets on this side of the ball. However, their best asset is their ability to create turnovers that allows their defense or offense to find easy points. A big asset to have when facing the Ravens is an offense that doesn’t make dumb mistakes and a quarterback that limits his as well. Enter the Dolphins offense, an offense that is the best in football in avoiding error. The Dolphins offense also prides themselves in gadget plays that could prove effective against a defense that has the propensity to be over aggressive.
Cons:
Fundamentals: The Ravens are the better team. There defense is as good as it gets and has the ability to manhandle a Dolphins offense that has struggled lighting up the scoreboard. The Wildcat met an antidote when facing the Ravens- the antidote being a well coached disciplined defense. The Ravens run defense is dominant and can contain a solid Dolphins running game. Pennington is a mangager and can not lead an offense on his own. He also can not operate in long third down situations. If the Ravens are successful shutting down the Dolphins running game, the Dolphins will have a hard time putting points on the board.
The Dolphins defense is good, but was better earlier in the season. They are starting to show more and more leaks and looked lost against a dormant Chiefs offense just two weeks ago. Their run defense may be a tad overrated at this stage of the game, and can be outmatched by a solid Ravens running game if they perform they way they have been performing late in the season. This will alleviate the pressure on Flacco and limit his propensity for error. That is not good, as that is the variable in which give the Dolphins their best chance of winning.
Conclusion:
As much as I have been backing the Ravens this year, there comes a point where one has to jump off the wagon. The point is usually when everyone else wants to be on it, leading to a seat costing a premium. The premium is that they are more than a field goal favorite on the road against a team that has lost just one of their last ten games. The Dolphins not as talented as the Ravens, but good enough to pull off an upset are keep this a field goal game.
Eagles @ Vikings
Play: Vikings +3
Comment:
I said for quite some time that the Eagles were one of the better teams in the NFC, but were underachieving the entire season. Most people labeled the Cowboys as such team, which clearly proved not to be the case last week, as the Eagles made it apparent they were the superior team. They were able to sneak into the playoffs despite not playing to their potential. Lead by the NFC’s best defense, and veterans on offense, the Eagles can make some noise.
The Vikings are known for having the leagues best running back and perception is that they won their division on the back of their running game. In my opinion, that is a fallacy, as it was their defense that proved to be their greatest strength, a defense that played both the pass and run well.
Pros:
Value: The Vikings are a tough team to beat at home, and the market knows such. That is the reason why they have been underdogs just once at home the entire season, a one point underdog against the Colts, a team in which the market value higher than the Eagles. The market clearly overestimated the Vikings during the season. Despite the 10-6 record, they covered just six games all season. That means that don’t win by as much as they are expected to win. However, playing as an underdog takes away this facet. Being road favorites for the Eagles is nothing new. This will be their sixth time. However, this is one role they didn’t play well under, coving just 2 of 5 games. The other 11 games, they covered 8.
Fundamentals: The Eagles offense has underachieved. They also are not much better than average and not well coached. The Vikings defense is very underrated. They are known for having a top tier run defense, but what has been missed is their ability to defend the pass very well also. In the past, the Eagles would pose problems for the Vikings as they defended the run much better than the pass. The Eagles pass more than run more than any other team over the last three years. However, this skewness that would have created an edge in past years isn’t there this time around. The Viking have the advantage defending the Eagles passing game as well as their running game. A hidden fundamental edge that is being ignored by most is the notion that the Eagles heavily rely on the shotgun in their passing game. The four best defenses defending this formation that they faced this season all dominated the Eagles (yes, the Bengals defense defended the shotgun well all season). The Vikings will be their fifth defense that they will face that can stop such a formation with the best of them. A weakness in the Vikings secondary is their disparity between their best and second best corners. Opponents with solid number 2 receivers can really take advantage of this. The Eagles are not one of those teams.
A lot of people are claiming that the Vikings would be better off with a veteran like Ferrotte under center than an inexperienced quarterback like Jackson. However, it has been Ferrotte that has been extremely mistake prone this season and overwhelmed by solid defenses. Jackson has performed well since taking over the role. He also has the speed and scrambling ability to counter the blitzes and speed of the Eagles defense. The Vikings always have a chance to alleviate their quarterback issues with their talented backfield and offensive line.
Cons:
Fundamentals:
The Eagles are a better team. They have the better offense and better defense. They have the better coaching and more experience in the playoffs. They play well on the road and their defense is masters and creating havoc against young and inexperienced corners. Their defense has a lot of advantages in this game. The Vikings running game is extremely overrated. Petterson’s standard deviation and defensive adjusted numbers leaves a lot to be desired. So do his fumbles. If the Eagles can shut him down, which is a good chance, the onus will be on Jackson, not something I want my money on. The Eagles corners out talent the Vikings receivers. Their pass rush is matched against the lack of pass protection the Vikings offensive line provides. Jackson needs a running game to compliment him. Period. The Eagles offense is experienced and can counter the Vikings run defense. They run well using the C gap and perimeter attack. This can counter the Vikings interior run defense that is as stout as it gets. Another counter is William’s health. If he plays, he will play below form. If he doesn’t, there is a good disparity between him and his replacement.
Performance. The Eagles have yet to peak, but are getting progressively better. Even during their underachieving season, they covered nearly twice as many games than the Vikings. The Vikings may not have regressed much, but have not shown sings of getting much better.
Conclusion:
The Vikings don’t warrant being home underdogs here. The market avoided putting them in this situation the entire season. Why start now against a team that won just nine games? The Vikings defense should be able to stop the Eagles running and passing game to an extent that makes them hard to win by more than a field goal. I will take the home dog in this one.
Eagles @ Vikings
Play: Under 41
Comment:
Pros:
Not only do the Vikings and Eagles have the two most underrated defenses in the NFC, they also have the two best. The Eagles defense has played well the entire season, but slowly got progressively better. They may have put forth their two best games in Week 16 and Week 17. Whether they peaked or not, it is quite evident they are not too far from their peak with their current form. The Vikings are going to have to run the ball as much as possible if they are going to win this game. They know their receivers, poor pass protection and the inexperience of Jackson is the last facet they want to have to win this game for them. Expect the Vikings to play it close to the vest and use the passing game only when necessary. When they do pass, expect them to keep it simple with Jackson. They want to offset the blitzes and the edge the Eagles have in getting pressure on the quarterback. The best way to do such is to implement a heavy dose of first level passes. This leads me to believe at least 80% of the Vikings plays will be either runs or passes that attack the first level. Whether it will be successful or not, it will demand a lot of time off the clock. The likelihood of it being successful is also slim. The Eagles run defense is good enough to contain the Vikings overrated running game, especially if they decide to stack the box and force Jackson to throw. Their corners should be able to stay with the Vikings receivers, and their pass rush should outmatch the Vikings line. Johnson will outsmart Jackson as well.
The Vikings defense is almost as good as the Eagles and just as underrated. They get their due credit with their ability to stop the run. They don’t get their due credit with their ability to stop the pass. They also fundamentally match up well against the Eagles offense. The Eagles lack the depth at receiver to take advantage of the Vikings lack of depth in their secondary. Their reliance on the shotgun will also be countered by the Vikings ability to counter it. The Vikings defense also plays much better at home, where the crowd noise disrupts the flow of the opponent’s offense. Being a playoff game, the noise will be that much louder. The best way to quite the crowd? Run the ball. Running favors the Under, especially with a run defense as good as the Vikings. Much like the Eagles defense, the Vikings defense has all the fundamental advantages in this game. The Eagles will find it hard putting forth many successful drives in this game, thus not many expected points out of them.
Conclusion:
Both offenses are overrated and average at best. Both defenses are underrated and the class of the NFC. This is the formula for a potential good Under play. The clincher? The price. This line has no business residing in the 40’s with these two offenses matched up against their opponents defense. Moving the ball will be hard. Finding the end zone will be very hard. I like the Under.
Play: Dolphins +3.5
Comment:
At the beginning of the season, I labeled both the Ravens and Dolphins as my sleeper teams. Since week 1, I have been stating the Ravens will have if not the best defense in the league, something very close to it. Combined with an expected solid running game, I thought the Ravens had a very good chance of making the playoffs despite what their O/U win total would suggest. What I did not expect out of the Ravens was solid play from their rookie quarterback. Even as bullish as I have been on the Ravens, they have slightly surpassed my expectations.
I have also been consistently backing the Dolphins, labeling them the best team in their division even when they were in last place. I said their underrated defense, solid play from their quarterback and above average running game was flying under the radar and being masked by Favre’s publicity and the Patriots attentions. Both those teams will be watching the Dolphins play a home playoff game.
Pros:
Value: Although the Ravens have consistently been one of the most undervalued teams this season, market perception has slowly been catching up to their true worth. Although their ATS performances far surpasses that of the Dolphins, as an ongoing concern, I feel it is the Dolphins team who is not getting the respect by the market place. This line appears to be the epitome of such, as it is pricing a rookie quarterback as more than a field goal road favorite against a home team that finished out the season winning nine of their last ten. The market priced the Ravens as road favorites just once all season. That was against the Bengals. They were priced as road dogs against the Texans and Browns. They were also priced as three point road dogs against the Dolphins earlier in the season. Season their first meeting, the Dolphins went 9-1, a better record than the Ravens. Is a 6.5 point shift I price warranted (and bypassing two key numbers)? The Dolphins are a team built to keep games close. They play the role of underdog are small favorite (less than three points) much better than a large favorite. As the former role, they went 7-3 ATS. The latter? 1-5.
Fundamentals: Probably the only facet of this game that will be stepping on the field and can be construed below average would be the Ravens passing game. Although Flacco surpassed expectations, the Ravens pass offense left a lot to be desired, especially against the better defenses they faced. Add the added pressure in which Flacco may face playing in a road playoff game, and Ravens will be forced to rely heavily on the ground game for success. As mentioned before, power running games depreciate in the playoffs as teams tackling ability improves. The Ravens are construed as such a running game. Add the Dolphins leverage in adding an 8<SUP>th</SUP> man in the box to force Flacco to throw, and the Ravens will find it difficult to move the ball on the ground as well. Expect a lot of prematurely stalled drives from the Ravens offense that should set up their counterparts offense with good field position that wont demand them to produce long drives to put points in the board.
There is little fundamental advantages left for an offense that has to face the best (or one of the top three defenses) in football. The Ravens are as well rounded as it gets on this side of the ball. However, their best asset is their ability to create turnovers that allows their defense or offense to find easy points. A big asset to have when facing the Ravens is an offense that doesn’t make dumb mistakes and a quarterback that limits his as well. Enter the Dolphins offense, an offense that is the best in football in avoiding error. The Dolphins offense also prides themselves in gadget plays that could prove effective against a defense that has the propensity to be over aggressive.
Cons:
Fundamentals: The Ravens are the better team. There defense is as good as it gets and has the ability to manhandle a Dolphins offense that has struggled lighting up the scoreboard. The Wildcat met an antidote when facing the Ravens- the antidote being a well coached disciplined defense. The Ravens run defense is dominant and can contain a solid Dolphins running game. Pennington is a mangager and can not lead an offense on his own. He also can not operate in long third down situations. If the Ravens are successful shutting down the Dolphins running game, the Dolphins will have a hard time putting points on the board.
The Dolphins defense is good, but was better earlier in the season. They are starting to show more and more leaks and looked lost against a dormant Chiefs offense just two weeks ago. Their run defense may be a tad overrated at this stage of the game, and can be outmatched by a solid Ravens running game if they perform they way they have been performing late in the season. This will alleviate the pressure on Flacco and limit his propensity for error. That is not good, as that is the variable in which give the Dolphins their best chance of winning.
Conclusion:
As much as I have been backing the Ravens this year, there comes a point where one has to jump off the wagon. The point is usually when everyone else wants to be on it, leading to a seat costing a premium. The premium is that they are more than a field goal favorite on the road against a team that has lost just one of their last ten games. The Dolphins not as talented as the Ravens, but good enough to pull off an upset are keep this a field goal game.
Eagles @ Vikings
Play: Vikings +3
Comment:
I said for quite some time that the Eagles were one of the better teams in the NFC, but were underachieving the entire season. Most people labeled the Cowboys as such team, which clearly proved not to be the case last week, as the Eagles made it apparent they were the superior team. They were able to sneak into the playoffs despite not playing to their potential. Lead by the NFC’s best defense, and veterans on offense, the Eagles can make some noise.
The Vikings are known for having the leagues best running back and perception is that they won their division on the back of their running game. In my opinion, that is a fallacy, as it was their defense that proved to be their greatest strength, a defense that played both the pass and run well.
Pros:
Value: The Vikings are a tough team to beat at home, and the market knows such. That is the reason why they have been underdogs just once at home the entire season, a one point underdog against the Colts, a team in which the market value higher than the Eagles. The market clearly overestimated the Vikings during the season. Despite the 10-6 record, they covered just six games all season. That means that don’t win by as much as they are expected to win. However, playing as an underdog takes away this facet. Being road favorites for the Eagles is nothing new. This will be their sixth time. However, this is one role they didn’t play well under, coving just 2 of 5 games. The other 11 games, they covered 8.
Fundamentals: The Eagles offense has underachieved. They also are not much better than average and not well coached. The Vikings defense is very underrated. They are known for having a top tier run defense, but what has been missed is their ability to defend the pass very well also. In the past, the Eagles would pose problems for the Vikings as they defended the run much better than the pass. The Eagles pass more than run more than any other team over the last three years. However, this skewness that would have created an edge in past years isn’t there this time around. The Viking have the advantage defending the Eagles passing game as well as their running game. A hidden fundamental edge that is being ignored by most is the notion that the Eagles heavily rely on the shotgun in their passing game. The four best defenses defending this formation that they faced this season all dominated the Eagles (yes, the Bengals defense defended the shotgun well all season). The Vikings will be their fifth defense that they will face that can stop such a formation with the best of them. A weakness in the Vikings secondary is their disparity between their best and second best corners. Opponents with solid number 2 receivers can really take advantage of this. The Eagles are not one of those teams.
A lot of people are claiming that the Vikings would be better off with a veteran like Ferrotte under center than an inexperienced quarterback like Jackson. However, it has been Ferrotte that has been extremely mistake prone this season and overwhelmed by solid defenses. Jackson has performed well since taking over the role. He also has the speed and scrambling ability to counter the blitzes and speed of the Eagles defense. The Vikings always have a chance to alleviate their quarterback issues with their talented backfield and offensive line.
Cons:
Fundamentals:
The Eagles are a better team. They have the better offense and better defense. They have the better coaching and more experience in the playoffs. They play well on the road and their defense is masters and creating havoc against young and inexperienced corners. Their defense has a lot of advantages in this game. The Vikings running game is extremely overrated. Petterson’s standard deviation and defensive adjusted numbers leaves a lot to be desired. So do his fumbles. If the Eagles can shut him down, which is a good chance, the onus will be on Jackson, not something I want my money on. The Eagles corners out talent the Vikings receivers. Their pass rush is matched against the lack of pass protection the Vikings offensive line provides. Jackson needs a running game to compliment him. Period. The Eagles offense is experienced and can counter the Vikings run defense. They run well using the C gap and perimeter attack. This can counter the Vikings interior run defense that is as stout as it gets. Another counter is William’s health. If he plays, he will play below form. If he doesn’t, there is a good disparity between him and his replacement.
Performance. The Eagles have yet to peak, but are getting progressively better. Even during their underachieving season, they covered nearly twice as many games than the Vikings. The Vikings may not have regressed much, but have not shown sings of getting much better.
Conclusion:
The Vikings don’t warrant being home underdogs here. The market avoided putting them in this situation the entire season. Why start now against a team that won just nine games? The Vikings defense should be able to stop the Eagles running and passing game to an extent that makes them hard to win by more than a field goal. I will take the home dog in this one.
Eagles @ Vikings
Play: Under 41
Comment:
Pros:
Not only do the Vikings and Eagles have the two most underrated defenses in the NFC, they also have the two best. The Eagles defense has played well the entire season, but slowly got progressively better. They may have put forth their two best games in Week 16 and Week 17. Whether they peaked or not, it is quite evident they are not too far from their peak with their current form. The Vikings are going to have to run the ball as much as possible if they are going to win this game. They know their receivers, poor pass protection and the inexperience of Jackson is the last facet they want to have to win this game for them. Expect the Vikings to play it close to the vest and use the passing game only when necessary. When they do pass, expect them to keep it simple with Jackson. They want to offset the blitzes and the edge the Eagles have in getting pressure on the quarterback. The best way to do such is to implement a heavy dose of first level passes. This leads me to believe at least 80% of the Vikings plays will be either runs or passes that attack the first level. Whether it will be successful or not, it will demand a lot of time off the clock. The likelihood of it being successful is also slim. The Eagles run defense is good enough to contain the Vikings overrated running game, especially if they decide to stack the box and force Jackson to throw. Their corners should be able to stay with the Vikings receivers, and their pass rush should outmatch the Vikings line. Johnson will outsmart Jackson as well.
The Vikings defense is almost as good as the Eagles and just as underrated. They get their due credit with their ability to stop the run. They don’t get their due credit with their ability to stop the pass. They also fundamentally match up well against the Eagles offense. The Eagles lack the depth at receiver to take advantage of the Vikings lack of depth in their secondary. Their reliance on the shotgun will also be countered by the Vikings ability to counter it. The Vikings defense also plays much better at home, where the crowd noise disrupts the flow of the opponent’s offense. Being a playoff game, the noise will be that much louder. The best way to quite the crowd? Run the ball. Running favors the Under, especially with a run defense as good as the Vikings. Much like the Eagles defense, the Vikings defense has all the fundamental advantages in this game. The Eagles will find it hard putting forth many successful drives in this game, thus not many expected points out of them.
Conclusion:
Both offenses are overrated and average at best. Both defenses are underrated and the class of the NFC. This is the formula for a potential good Under play. The clincher? The price. This line has no business residing in the 40’s with these two offenses matched up against their opponents defense. Moving the ball will be hard. Finding the end zone will be very hard. I like the Under.
ope:
