Falcons @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +1
Comment
The Falcons came into the season with low expectations. They quickly appeared to overachieve by finishing the first quarter of the season with 2 wins, but flew under the radar by losing to two quality teams decisively. However, their offense really hit stride in the second quarter and never slowed down. They went on three separate multi game winning streaks, and only lost three of their last 12 games. During that duration, the teams intrinsic worth progressively got slightly better, lead by a top tier offense and a defense that at one point achieved mediocrity. Where are they now? In my opinion, this team is off their high, but not by much. Their offense peaked about a month ago, but still warrants being labeled one of the best in all of football. Their defense also peaked around that time, but their current worth raises concerns, as leaks are starting to come in masses.
The Cardinals came into the season with higher expectations and a contender for the division title. They came out of the gates fast, lead by an overachieving offense that quickly became construed as top tier, and a defense that was not getting the same recognition, but early on, was worth as much as their offense. Their offense during the second quarter of the season hit another stride, while their defense didn’t let go of their above average status. Division contender thoughts transferred over to Super Bowl contender. However, the Cardinals hit a wall very acutely in the second half of the season. Warner’s regression lead to a supply chain effect, as their running game diminished as well as their passing game. Their defense also showed leaks amass; leading to what was once a decent defense becoming a liability on the field. Where are they now? There is no other team in the playoffs, and arguably all of football, that is off of their peak worth more than the Cardinals. There offense was the class of the league, and now just above average. Their defense even dropped even more.
There are two teams in this years playoffs that are no better than average teams. Both of which are matched up together. Both teams’ defenses are considerably below average. Enough below to offset any offensive worth that can allow them to be labeled solid teams.
Pros
Value: Obviously, if a line has no perceived value, it makes no sense to bet it. Dissecting this line, and you find a rare road favorite playoff team. Why are the Falcons favored on the road now, when they only were favored on the road just once all season (against the Raiders)? The Falcons were not getting the same respect on the road during the regular season, and it appeared to be warranted, as they only covered just 50% of their road games. The market had high expectations from the Cardinals at home, and they delivered. The covered five of eight, and were only put as home dogs twice all season, which were against teams the market prices higher than the Falcons.
Fundamentals: The Cardinals offense has witnessed serious deprecation, but they still possess a very potent passing game. They rely heavily on the pass and thus can better mask their deficiencies on the ground. The Falcons struggled defending the pass, and lack depth and experience in the secondary. Expect Warner to be successful attacking this weakness by spreading out the Falcons defense with multiple receiver sets and the best trio receiving group in all of football. The Falcons also defend the running back in the passing game poorly. Arrington, James, and Hightower can all be implemented as receiving threats. The biggest drop-off in the Falcons fundamental worth in the second half of the season has been their run defense. They went from bad to very bad defending the run. The Cardinals running game has suffered a drop off as well. A lot has to do with the drop off in the passing game. That said, expect the return of productivity in the passing game to allow their running game to feed of the spread formations and attack another glaring weakness in the Falcons defense. I see no reason for the Cardinals offense not to return to first half worth.
One thing that consistently appears to improve in the playoffs is tackling. Thus, power running attacks seem to be less productive in the playoffs. This might not appear to be much, but it is. The Cardinals defensive demise of late has been predicated a lot on poor tackling. Turners success on the ground has been predicated a lot of after contact yards. What appears to be a magnified advantage for the Falcons is something I feel should be shored up and limited Saturday. The Falcons biggest edge appears to be when they pass the ball. However, one also has to question if this edge can come to fruition, as anything can happen to a rookie quarterback in a road playoff game.
Home field advantage: Although both teams are dome teams, I feel home field advantage is magnified in this game. The Cardinals have been widely known as a dangerous home team and a worthless road team. They once again lived up to that adage this year, winning six of eight at home and finishing with a losing road record. Not many teams in football won at least three more home games than road games like the Cardinals. However, the Falcons are one of them. The dome will get loud, and Ryan can be rattled.
Tempo: If the Cardinals start out with the lead, watch out. The crowd will be relentless, Ryan can break down, the Falcons may be forced to abandon the run early, and the Cardinals will be in the driver’s seat to establish their tempo few teams like establishing. If the Falcons start out with an early lead, the Cardinals have a better chance of come back. Not only are they less reliant on their running game that they can easily go without, but their offense is one of the best second half offenses in all of football. The Falcons? Arguably the worst second half defense in the league. No lead is safe for the Falcons in this game.
Cons:
Current form: The Cardinals are going in a direction that is dangerous to back. A win against the Seahawks is not nearly enough to claim they are back. The Cardinals have dropped from a solid team to an average at best team in a 2 month span. Every facet of their game has gotten worse, some materially worse. Although the Falcons have also peaked, not nearly enough. Their drop offs have been less material and the breadth of the drop off has been less poignant. Playoffs are about who is playing better, and that edge goes to the Falcons.
Fundamentals: The Cardinals can’t stop the pass. A much more difficult match up for the Falcons would have been a Vikings team that would be able to put Ryan in a more spotlighted role with their ability to stop the run, and also pressure the quarterback. The Cardinals may not be able to implement such a strategy. If the Cardinals tacking doesn’t get better like expected, they will lose. The Falcons run too much, and can wear a team down. No tackling means not getting off the field. Not getting off the field means the likely hood of establishing the shootout the Cardinals want is slim. Ideally you want a potent running attack to face the Falcons. The Falcons biggest weakness is their run defense. The Cardinals biggest weakness is their running game. It is a running game that has also been unable to put forth solid performances against anemic run defenses. Can the Cardinals take advantage of this weakness? The chances of them capitalizing are less than any other playoff team.
Mistake Expectancy: Turnovers are magnified in the playoffs. Although Warner is the veteran with a Super Bowl ring and Ryan is rookie, claiming Warner is the likelier candidate to make a mistake is warranted. 21 fumbles lost and interceptions by Warner is evidenced of such, and nearly double that of Ryan.
Special Teams: The disparity here lies in the coverage skills. The Cardinals may be the worst in football. Special teams flies under the radar, but this disparity is big. In my opinion, the disparity is worth 1.5 points (in field position worth).
Conclusion:
It is hard to back a team that is like catching a falling knife. Backing the Cardinals feels like such. However, the market is giving me a pair of gloves by making them a home underdog. Expect the experience of Warner, the receiving depth that he is supported by, and the home field advantage to be too much for this young Falcons team to handle. Asking them to win a road playoff game is simply asking too much at this point and time. The Cardinals will likely advance to the next round, and then meet their fate.
Play: Cardinals +1
Comment
The Falcons came into the season with low expectations. They quickly appeared to overachieve by finishing the first quarter of the season with 2 wins, but flew under the radar by losing to two quality teams decisively. However, their offense really hit stride in the second quarter and never slowed down. They went on three separate multi game winning streaks, and only lost three of their last 12 games. During that duration, the teams intrinsic worth progressively got slightly better, lead by a top tier offense and a defense that at one point achieved mediocrity. Where are they now? In my opinion, this team is off their high, but not by much. Their offense peaked about a month ago, but still warrants being labeled one of the best in all of football. Their defense also peaked around that time, but their current worth raises concerns, as leaks are starting to come in masses.
The Cardinals came into the season with higher expectations and a contender for the division title. They came out of the gates fast, lead by an overachieving offense that quickly became construed as top tier, and a defense that was not getting the same recognition, but early on, was worth as much as their offense. Their offense during the second quarter of the season hit another stride, while their defense didn’t let go of their above average status. Division contender thoughts transferred over to Super Bowl contender. However, the Cardinals hit a wall very acutely in the second half of the season. Warner’s regression lead to a supply chain effect, as their running game diminished as well as their passing game. Their defense also showed leaks amass; leading to what was once a decent defense becoming a liability on the field. Where are they now? There is no other team in the playoffs, and arguably all of football, that is off of their peak worth more than the Cardinals. There offense was the class of the league, and now just above average. Their defense even dropped even more.
There are two teams in this years playoffs that are no better than average teams. Both of which are matched up together. Both teams’ defenses are considerably below average. Enough below to offset any offensive worth that can allow them to be labeled solid teams.
Pros
Value: Obviously, if a line has no perceived value, it makes no sense to bet it. Dissecting this line, and you find a rare road favorite playoff team. Why are the Falcons favored on the road now, when they only were favored on the road just once all season (against the Raiders)? The Falcons were not getting the same respect on the road during the regular season, and it appeared to be warranted, as they only covered just 50% of their road games. The market had high expectations from the Cardinals at home, and they delivered. The covered five of eight, and were only put as home dogs twice all season, which were against teams the market prices higher than the Falcons.
Fundamentals: The Cardinals offense has witnessed serious deprecation, but they still possess a very potent passing game. They rely heavily on the pass and thus can better mask their deficiencies on the ground. The Falcons struggled defending the pass, and lack depth and experience in the secondary. Expect Warner to be successful attacking this weakness by spreading out the Falcons defense with multiple receiver sets and the best trio receiving group in all of football. The Falcons also defend the running back in the passing game poorly. Arrington, James, and Hightower can all be implemented as receiving threats. The biggest drop-off in the Falcons fundamental worth in the second half of the season has been their run defense. They went from bad to very bad defending the run. The Cardinals running game has suffered a drop off as well. A lot has to do with the drop off in the passing game. That said, expect the return of productivity in the passing game to allow their running game to feed of the spread formations and attack another glaring weakness in the Falcons defense. I see no reason for the Cardinals offense not to return to first half worth.
One thing that consistently appears to improve in the playoffs is tackling. Thus, power running attacks seem to be less productive in the playoffs. This might not appear to be much, but it is. The Cardinals defensive demise of late has been predicated a lot on poor tackling. Turners success on the ground has been predicated a lot of after contact yards. What appears to be a magnified advantage for the Falcons is something I feel should be shored up and limited Saturday. The Falcons biggest edge appears to be when they pass the ball. However, one also has to question if this edge can come to fruition, as anything can happen to a rookie quarterback in a road playoff game.
Home field advantage: Although both teams are dome teams, I feel home field advantage is magnified in this game. The Cardinals have been widely known as a dangerous home team and a worthless road team. They once again lived up to that adage this year, winning six of eight at home and finishing with a losing road record. Not many teams in football won at least three more home games than road games like the Cardinals. However, the Falcons are one of them. The dome will get loud, and Ryan can be rattled.
Tempo: If the Cardinals start out with the lead, watch out. The crowd will be relentless, Ryan can break down, the Falcons may be forced to abandon the run early, and the Cardinals will be in the driver’s seat to establish their tempo few teams like establishing. If the Falcons start out with an early lead, the Cardinals have a better chance of come back. Not only are they less reliant on their running game that they can easily go without, but their offense is one of the best second half offenses in all of football. The Falcons? Arguably the worst second half defense in the league. No lead is safe for the Falcons in this game.
Cons:
Current form: The Cardinals are going in a direction that is dangerous to back. A win against the Seahawks is not nearly enough to claim they are back. The Cardinals have dropped from a solid team to an average at best team in a 2 month span. Every facet of their game has gotten worse, some materially worse. Although the Falcons have also peaked, not nearly enough. Their drop offs have been less material and the breadth of the drop off has been less poignant. Playoffs are about who is playing better, and that edge goes to the Falcons.
Fundamentals: The Cardinals can’t stop the pass. A much more difficult match up for the Falcons would have been a Vikings team that would be able to put Ryan in a more spotlighted role with their ability to stop the run, and also pressure the quarterback. The Cardinals may not be able to implement such a strategy. If the Cardinals tacking doesn’t get better like expected, they will lose. The Falcons run too much, and can wear a team down. No tackling means not getting off the field. Not getting off the field means the likely hood of establishing the shootout the Cardinals want is slim. Ideally you want a potent running attack to face the Falcons. The Falcons biggest weakness is their run defense. The Cardinals biggest weakness is their running game. It is a running game that has also been unable to put forth solid performances against anemic run defenses. Can the Cardinals take advantage of this weakness? The chances of them capitalizing are less than any other playoff team.
Mistake Expectancy: Turnovers are magnified in the playoffs. Although Warner is the veteran with a Super Bowl ring and Ryan is rookie, claiming Warner is the likelier candidate to make a mistake is warranted. 21 fumbles lost and interceptions by Warner is evidenced of such, and nearly double that of Ryan.
Special Teams: The disparity here lies in the coverage skills. The Cardinals may be the worst in football. Special teams flies under the radar, but this disparity is big. In my opinion, the disparity is worth 1.5 points (in field position worth).
Conclusion:
It is hard to back a team that is like catching a falling knife. Backing the Cardinals feels like such. However, the market is giving me a pair of gloves by making them a home underdog. Expect the experience of Warner, the receiving depth that he is supported by, and the home field advantage to be too much for this young Falcons team to handle. Asking them to win a road playoff game is simply asking too much at this point and time. The Cardinals will likely advance to the next round, and then meet their fate.
