Adam Burke
NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Betting Odds
The Super Bowl dream is still alive for the six teams that prevailed during the Wild-Card Weekend. Now the playoff dream begins for the two best teams in the NFL, as the Ravens and 49ers know their opponents and head back to the field to prepare. Four really interesting matchups are on tap for Divisional Weekend, though we do have two big spreads on Saturday and another fairly big number on Sunday.Houston Texans At Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 45.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ETThe Texans were one of two division champion underdogs to take care of business this past weekend. To say that Houston took care of business is a bit of an understatement, as they pummeled the Browns 45-14 behind a nearly flawless performance from C.J. Stroud. Stroud and his teammates now head outside where the early forecast does not look conducive for a robust passing game. Wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range are expected throughout Saturday.
Obviously that could change with several days until the game, but we saw weather have a big impact on the Wild-Card Round and we may get the same here. The Texans had one of the league’s most ineffective ground attacks, while the Ravens perennially rank among the league’s top rushing squads. Getting 9.5 points with Stroud sounds really promising, but the forecasted wind looks like a huge detriment at present.
Green Bay Packers At San Francisco 49ers (-10, 50)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ETSaturday’s nightcap features the first No. 7 seed to win in the current playoff format and the No. 1 seed out of the NFC. After what Jordan Love did to carve up a Dallas defense that was superior in a lot of statistical categories, it will be interesting to see where this line goes given a 10-point head start for the visitors. Of course, the 49ers had the league’s best offense by a wide margin in many advanced metrics, so it will be another big test for the Packers defense.
Sadly, this looks like another game likely to be impacted by weather. Early forecasts show wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range and rain throughout the contest. San Francisco had an excellent passing attack during the regular season, but this is a truly balanced offense. Green Bay, meanwhile, goes as Love goes. Keep an eye on this line throughout the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Detroit Lions (-6, 48.5)
Sunday 3 p.m. ETMany will point to the epic collapse from the Eagles as this season went along, but that will diminish what the Buccaneers were able to accomplish this past Monday night. Tampa Bay played a really good game. The Bucs have played well for a while now and Baker Mayfield has been cooking with OC Dave Canales. Remember, this is a Baker Mayfield who posted a perfect passer rating a few weeks back in a win at Lambeau Field.
The Lions held on for dear life against the Rams, as they got off to a blistering start, but only scored three points in the second half and those came on a 54-yard field goal. After three straight 75-yard touchdown drives in the first half, the Lions had 116 yards on their next five drives. Maybe there were some nerves and a little bit of inexperience from top to bottom, but the Rams adjusted and really gave themselves a chance. Is that enough to entice some people to back the Bucs this week? We will see, but I’m initially interested in +6.
Kansas City Chiefs At Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46.5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ETThe main event of Divisional Round Weekend is this game in Buffalo, as the Chiefs and Bills do battle for a third time in the postseason in the Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen era. Kansas City has won both games, with a 38-24 win in the AFC Championship Game during the COVID playoffs and a 42-36 win in the 2021 playoffs in a game where the Bills led by three with 13 seconds left, only to watch Harrison Butker tie the game and the flip of a coin seal their fate.
The Bills had defenders dropping like flies in the win over the Steelers, which was about as concerning as how they let Pittsburgh back into the game when it looked like it was going to be a complete runaway. Buffalo covered all numbers anyway, but the fast start and the lackluster finish may have skewed some perceptions a little.
That being said, what are the Chiefs? They are a great defensive team and Rashee Rice is emerging as a star, but Travis Kelce has lost a step and Mahomes has been visibly frustrated on and off the field with his teammates. We all know this is not a version of the Chiefs that mirrors other ones in recent years, but are they still good enough to go to Buffalo and win? Let’s see what bettors believe, as this line went to and came off of -3 at multiple books throughout Sunday evening.
