NFL Playoff Information Thread

[BigLou+]

When betting the NFL playoffs you can basically disregard the spread as the SU winner will cover most of the time. Here is some data on how SU winners have done ATS in the playoffs.

Wild Card Round 1982-2002: 65-6-3 ATS 92%
Divisional Round 1982-2002: 69-12-3 ATS 85%
Conference Finals 1970-2002: 59-5-2 ATS 92%
Super Bowl 1966-2002: 32-3-2 ATS 91%

I always play the moneyline on any underdog I'm backing in the playoffs and you should too as this will definitely help build your bankroll.

Feel free to post any information pertaining to the playoffs that you feel is useful.

Big Lou

 

[blueedwards]

nice info lou.

you still think miami has a chance?

 

[BigLou+]

Check out the Super Bowl thread.

Big Lou

 

[mhk]

Wait until you see the ats records of teams that outrush the opponent (in playoff games)..
BL, did you see my question to you (in some other thread) about nfl playoff home dogs? Not sure how many there have even been, just wondering what the ats records were..

 

[BigLou+]

It doesn't happen very often but home dogs in the first two rounds of the playoffs are money in the bank going 8-0 SU & ATS in the Wild Card or Divisional Round of the playoffs since 1982. The results are quite different in the Conference Finals with home dogs going just 7-6 SU & ATS since 1970.

Big Lou

 

[Dillrod]

home faves = $$$$

 

[mhk]

Thanks for the info BL.. I was thinking that perhaps the Vikings/Ravens might host a first round game against a team with a better record and be a home dog..

 

[BigLou+]

The way things are setting up for the post-season the home favs are not going to be the way to go this year. There is a chance that two wild card teams could be playing in the Super Bowl.

Big Lou

 

[THEGAME9000]

big lou,
just pick the winner....definately an overlooked stat.
quality data!

keep'em coming.

GAME.

 

[BigLou+]

Teams peaking too soon.

To win a Super Bowl you need to play your best football in January, not December. Sometimes teams peak too early and lose momentum in the playoffs.

The New England Patriots, if they beat Buffalo on Saturday, will enter their bye week winning 14 of their last 15 games. That is a very difficult streak to continue and they could be upset in the first round.

Again, it all depends on the outcome of their last game but they look to be peaking too early.

Big Lou

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Big Lou, I saw that you listed two teams left to win the SB with Denver and Tenn. I was wondering if you would recommend putting a prop bet on both. I think Carib had the Titans at +1500 and Denver at +2100 or something like that. If these two have the best chance of winning the SB according to your system. Then putting something on both may be the way to go. What do you think about this. Thanks CC

 

[BigLou+]

CC,

I would wait until next week when the process has been completed.

Big Lou

 

[BigLou+]

Throughout history teams that enter the playoffs with a running back that has gained substantial yardage during the regular season have not done well in the post-season. Here is the list of teams whose RB rushed for 1,850 yards or more and their playoff record that season:

Yards Player Team (Year) Playoff Record That Year
2,105 Eric Dickerson LA Rams (1984) 0-1
2,066 Jamal Lewis Baltimore (2003) ???
2,053 Barry Sanders Detroit (1997) 0-1
2,008 Terrell Davis Denver (1998) 3-0
1,934 Earl Campbell Houston (1980) 0-1
1,883 Ahman Green Green Bay (2003) ???
1,883 Barry Sanders Detroit (1994) 0-1
1,852 Walter Payton Chicago (1977) 0-1

The 1998 Broncos we're the exception to that rule, finishing the season 14-2 SU and going all the way. It will be interesting to see how RB Jamal Lewis and the Ravens do (if they make the playoffs of course).

Big Lou

[This message was edited by Big Lou on December 29, 2003 at 07:28 AM.]

[This message was edited by Big Lou on December 29, 2003 at 09:40 AM.]

 

[BigLou+]

Defense wins championships. If your team has problems stopping the run you will not go far in the playoffs. No team that has allowed more then 4.7 yards per rush on defense during the regular season has ever reached the Super Bowl, let alone win it. This year we have three teams that fall into that category:

St. Louis Rams: 4.9 ypr allowed
Minnesota Vikings: 4.9 ypr allowed
Kansas City Chiefs: 5.2 ypr allowed

If this holds true again this year that means two of the four teams that have a first round bye (Rams & Chiefs) will not make it to Houston.

Big Lou

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Good info there Lou-thanks for sharing.

 

[mickj]

What's the Eagles stat?

 

[BigLou+]

The Eagles allowing 4.5 ypr on defense which is not good either.

Big Lou

 

[cains]

Stupid Q. from me??

When betting the NFL playoffs you can basically disregard the spread as the SU winner will cover most of the time. Here is some data on how SU winners have done ATS in the playoffs.

Thats from lou, top post...
What does SU and ATS mean exactly??

I feel so imberrased..

/ cains

 

[BigLou+]

SU: Straight up.
ATS: Against the spread.

 

[BigLou+]

Bump for rpm.