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Home in caps. Have a spreadsheet that provides comparisons & predictions of who has an edge in run/pass, sacks etc comparing a team’s units vs its opposition's units for each team in each game. Ie Team A run O vs Team B run D.

Will give this a try and here are my thoughts for Week 2.

Best Bets

BUF pk
WAS-6
dal+4
CAR-3
SD+5.5
CLE +6.5

CAR-3
Better team at home, det under new regime, should struggle to run the ball vs one of the best Ds in league

BUF pk
BUF O edge in pass and run vs this D, look for a lot of ground yds plus new WRs M Williams and S Watkins for EJ Manuel capably backed up bny Kyle Orton now

WAS -6
Edge in run O , D sacks w Orakpo and Kerrigan. Jax maybe be down their top WR Shorts

dal+4
Better team. Both should be able to move ball so dal can keep it close. Look for more running from dal this week.

ari -2
Close call here though ari has the edge in run/pass D vs NYG O. NYG looked awful vs DET

ne-3
ne will be able to run/pass while MIN will struggle to do either. RB Peterson out too Big edge at QB here

CLE+6.5
no is much better at home in their dome vs away , outside and on grass. Look for a low scoring affair here CLE did ok vs PIT lw

CIN -5.5
atl disadv in run O vs CIN D & also limited pass rush vs CIN. CIN better team & edge in run and pass O.

TB -5.5
stl looked awful lw and lost DE Chris Long and QB Shaun Hill and now may start their 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] string QB. TB will want this one after losing at home lw

SD+5.5
sea not the same away from their echo chamber. They likely will still win here but by a field goal. SD much improved on D w new CBs Flowers and 1[SUP]st[/SUP] rounder Verrett

hou -2.5
Look for a lot of hou sacks here. Both teams should be able to move the ball but hou the better team overall & edge in run O

GB-8
GB edge in pass D and pass O. nyj soft at CB w Milliner nicked and Dmitri Patterson released.

kc+13
Just too many pts even though kc has had injuries on both sides of the ball.

SF -6.5
chi has both WRs nicked a little, one may even sit SF edge in both run/pass O

phi+3
phi will be able to run easily here. both teams can score & will likely fall on the # but take the pts.
 

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Week 3

tb +6.5

Better team on paper & have a rush D edge but have some inj. Not sold on ATL ‘s D. Had ATL winning by 2.5 before the TB inj but now Roddy White is inactive to balance. DE Michael Johnson will also play
 

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Week 3 Sunday

Home team in caps. Edge is vs the other teams opposing unit (ex team rush O edge is vs opponent rush D)


Best Bets

BUF-2.5
bal-1.5
CIN-7
kc+3.5


BUF -2.5
Edge in rush/pass O vs SD’s D w big edge in rush O. RBs Spiller & Davis should have a good day. sd RB Mathews, OLB Ingram out, WR Allen nicked

STL+2
Austin Davis ok. Big edge in rush O. Tough call here but STL is better team except at QB

was+5
Rush O edge for both teams so should be more of a close ground and pound game. Too many pts. Likely field goal game

NYG -1
NYG pass D edge. NYG need this one. Eli > Ryan Fitzpatrick

NO-10
Edge in pass rush D. Look for some sacks here. min running Norv’s complex O will struggle on the road here. AP out

CIN-7
Edge in rush and pass D and O. AJ Green back

bal-1.5
Both teams D’s better than Os. Look for lots of sacks by both teams. bal better O & Flacco > Hoyer is edge here.


gb+1.5
Better team. Edge in rush and pass O. DET S out which Rogers will exploit

ind+7
Edge in pass, rush O JAX just lost their starting TE, & WR Lee out

oak +14
Edge in run O. Look for a more conservative offense this time out. Too many pts

ARI+3
Big edge in pass O regardless of who is at QB. SF down 2 LBs and a CB. Maybe w out TE Davis which is a big loss. Teams pretty even so take the pts w home squad.

den+5
Even factoring SEA w huge hfa looks like a closer match. DEN reloaded on D w Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward and Aqib Talib. Likely a filed goal win for SEA

kc+3.5
Better team. Run O edge .Look for some sacks here against a new OL.

CAR-3
Tight one here but CAR better team at home. PIT was throttled last time on road against at a good d in BAL 26-6

NYJ-3
Tough call here. NYJ big edge in run O and D. CHI also has some OL and DL inj so look for a heavy dose of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson Cutler will be throwing and on the road that is always a risk.
 

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Scratch monday night pick NYJ-3. No pick tonight.

Both teams have injuries. NYJ missing their top CB. CHI missing 2 OL, CB Tillman, DT Ratliff, OLB McClellin. NYJ have edge in ground game, CHI in the passing game. Hard to trust Cutler on the road. Really a toss up.

Best Bets: 3-1, YTD 8-1
All: 9-5, YTD: 20-10
 

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Week 4

Home team in caps. Edge is vs the other teams opposing unit (ex team rush O edge is vs opponent rush D) No pick in the SD/jax or PIT/tb game as just not sure of tb or jax at this stage

Best Bets

BAL-3
NYJ pk
DAL+3
KC+3.5


OAK+3.5

MIA TE Clay hurting a little, RB Moreno out. MIA big edge in pass O. OAK edge in rush O. Showed they can compete last week in NE w chance to send game to OT.

CHI +2

Both teams should be able to score and move the ball. HFA edge here

HOU-3

Close here but now RB Arian Foster is playing.

IND-7.5

ten playing awful w 2 TOs/game last 2 games and Locker regressing this year. looks like he may also be doubtful

BAL-3
car nicked a little at RB & missing DE Hardy. BAL edge in pass O, run/pass D

NYJ pk
Look for a heavy dose of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson here. NYJ moved the ball well last week but had 2 costly turnovers. Rex will make sure that doesn’t happen again.


SF -4
phi has big OL inj. SF get TE Vernon Davis back

atl -3
atl edge in rush /pass O, rush D. MIN rookie QB Bridgewater is in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] start

DAL+3
DAL edge in rush O. NO missing RB Ingram. DAL could win outright.

KC+3
Edge in rush O and rush D. Likely a field goal game either way
 

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Week 5

Home team in caps. Edge is vs the other teams opposing unit (ex team rush O edge is vs opponent rush D) Picks based on estimated pts considering edges, injuries and other factors.

Not many bargains this week. Avoiding some games w inj or no clear edge. Note teams that pass < than 58% (the avg) cover 67% of the time so bet run heavy teams and look to fade complex, passing focused Os especially on the road.

Best Bets

bal +3
SD -6.5
DEN -7.5


TEN +1
Look for a defensive battle here. QB Locker just back from inj and w line shift TEN has some small value.

stl +6
PHI has some OL issues losing starters at C and OG. Struggled against SF lw. Both teams = so field goal to home side.


hou +6.5
hou edge in rush O and pass rush D . DAL missing top CB Claiborne. Both should be able to move the ball so maybe a field goal either way.

buf +5.5
buf may have won last week except for Manuel’s pick 6. Orton should shore up the QB spot. Edge in pass./rush O and rush D. DET has RB Joique Bell out and Megatron is nicked.

bal +3
Big edge in pass rush O so look for some sacks here. Edge in rush D and pass O as well could win outright. IND lacking in pass rush this year.

pit -6.5
JAx down their top 2 WR and TE.


DEN -7.5
ari starting QB Drew Stanton again. DEN big edge in pass rush on D and O (limiting sacks) and pass O. a Lots of pts but Den covers.

kc +4.5
Both teams should be able to move the ball. SF down their top 2 LBs and CB all season and not as stout. Key is Vernon Davis their TD leader, likely a late scratch.

SD -6.5
Injuries the story here too w nyj top WR out for this one. SD starting to be dominant at home again and big edge in pass O. Geno Smith has been struggling this year.

NE +2.5
Look for enough of a rebound to cover this week after that brutal loss in KC , no way they drop another esp at home. Pending LB inj.
 

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