NFL-Following the $$$

TTinCO · Nov 17, 2008

I went through the NFL card this morning & wrote down what I thought were all the significant line moves from the opener to what they were at about 9am eastern & came up with the following:

Atlanta 4 to 6.5-7
NYG 6 to 7-8
Jax +3 to +1
Cincy 43 to 41
NewOr +4 to 5.5
NewOr 48 to 50.5
Det 39 to 40.5
TB 41.5 to 38.5
Sea 48.5 to 47.5
SanD 44 to 42
Wash 46 to 42.5-43

If you tail the moves, you go 8-3 with the NewOr total middling the move

Anyone ever track this on a long term basis?

viking611 · Nov 17, 2008

not too bad a card.... i think

The following bet(s) have been placed on your account:

Event 1: Baltimore at New York Giants (Moneyline)
Selection 1: New York Giants
Date 1: Nov 16, 2008 12:00 PM

Event 2: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (Moneyline)
Selection 2: Philadelphia
Date 2: Nov 16, 2008 12:00 PM

Event 3: Tennessee at Jacksonville
Selection 3: Tennessee - 3.0
Date 3: Nov 16, 2008 3:15 PM

Event 4: Detroit at Carolina (Moneyline)
Selection 4: Carolina
Date 4: Nov 16, 2008 12:00 PM

Event 5: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (Moneyline)
Selection 5: Minnesota
Date 5: Nov 16, 2008 12:00 PM

Event 6: San Diego at Pittsburgh (Moneyline)
Selection 6: San Diego
Date 6: Nov 16, 2008 3:15 PM

Event 7: Denver at Atlanta (Moneyline)
Selection 7: Denver
Date 7: Nov 16, 2008 12:00 PM

Event 8: Houston at Indianapolis (Moneyline)
Selection 8: Indianapolis
Date 8: Nov 16, 2008 12:00 PM
---------------------------------------------------
Bet Amount: $ 10.00
Price: +11900
Payout: $ 1200.01
Time Placed: Nov 16, 2008 2:36 AM
Bet Type: Combination

winbet · Nov 17, 2008

You've got more chance of shagging the bird in your avatar than getting one of those bets up. :lol: :drink:

TheWolf · Nov 17, 2008

It doesnt work.

Iceman · Nov 17, 2008

The Wolf said:
It doesnt work.

i disagree I think it completely works as like anything if you beat the closing line you will win but the problem is getting down at the those numbers isnt easy. You will miss a lot of those moves, fall for other ones that never materilze, etc. Bottom line though do it with any sport and you will win. I had a lot of them plays (almost all of them totals) and had a great week in the NFL but you have to be ready at the open as the NFL doesnt move much during the week.

I also am a huge believer in fading NFL game day line moves as that is the day the public gets involved. I bet Denver +7 yesterday as that line didnt hit 7 till gameday so I faded the move.

But overall you are completly on to something and in my opinion this is how you beat sportsbetting (beat the closing line). It is a fact for every 2 cents you beat the no vig closing line you will win at a 1% rate. I do that all the time, count up how much (if at all) I am beating the closing line by (no vig closing line) and see if my numbers are better. I then figure for every 2 cents better I expect a 1% return.

TTinCO · Nov 17, 2008

The funny thing about this is you would go 8-3 even if you got the closing #. I'd be surprised if that held up long term.

Iceman · Nov 17, 2008

TTinCO said:
The funny thing about this is you would go 8-3 even if you got the closing #. I'd be surprised if that held up long term.

I think that would lose, maybe fading the closing number if it moved on gameday say a point or more would be the way to go (i.e- denver)

TheWolf · Nov 17, 2008

Iceman said:
i disagree I think it completely works as like anything if you beat the closing line you will win but the problem is getting down at the those numbers isnt easy. You will miss a lot of those moves, fall for other ones that never materilze, etc. Bottom line though do it with any sport and you will win. I had a lot of them plays (almost all of them totals) and had a great week in the NFL but you have to be ready at the open as the NFL doesnt move much during the week.

I also am a huge believer in fading NFL game day line moves as that is the day the public gets involved. I bet Denver +7 yesterday as that line didnt hit 7 till gameday so I faded the move.

But overall you are completly on to something and in my opinion this is how you beat sportsbetting (beat the closing line). It is a fact for every 2 cents you beat the no vig closing line you will win at a 1% rate. I do that all the time, count up how much (if at all) I am beating the closing line by (no vig closing line) and see if my numbers are better. I then figure for every 2 cents better I expect a 1% return.

Exactly what I meant. Youd have to beat the move.....KC was classic example of this 48-51. Game lands on 50.

Iceman · Nov 17, 2008

The Wolf said:
Exactly what I meant. Youd have to beat the move.....KC was classic example of this 48-51. Game lands on 50.

Right. Betting peak numbers and all your bets wins longterm. I still talk to former poster here mr.j and hom and I have had this dicussion dozens of time about how if you focsed and only made bets at peak numbers you would win longterm but that takes extreme discipline, which I am not sure most could master.