[h=1]Finding underdog value in Week 3[/h][h=3]Why 0-2 ATS NFL teams such as the Jaguars are smart bets this week[/h]
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Through two weeks of the 2014 NFL season, contrarian betting strategies have gotten off to solid starts across the board. Underdogs alone are 19-12-1 (61.3 percent) against the spread (ATS) for a profit of almost six units. Furthermore, NFL teams receiving 40 percent or less of spread bets have produced a 16-6 (72.7 percent) ATS record for a profit of almost nine units. Not surprisingly, with underdogs and teams unpopular among bettors performing so well against the spread, our contrarian betting strategies have also been successful this season. We backed up our 4-1 ATS start in Week 1 with a 2-1 ATS record last week, putting us at 6-2 (75 percent) ATS so far this season.
In full disclosure, we don't expect to maintain a 75 percent ATS win rate throughout the entire season, but it's certainly nice to get hot early as we attempt to achieve our goal of beating the spread-betting break-even point of 52.4 percent and producing a profitable season.
This week, we'll employ another contrarian betting strategy that seeks to find value by identifying betting market overreactions based on recent results. To do this, I used our Bet Labs analysis software and built on our Week 3 analysis from last season to create a system with a 61.7 percent ATS win rate since 2005 and five bets for this week's slate of games.
To get started, I applied Bet Labs' "ATS Streak" and "Week Number" filters to examine the results of all NFL teams coming off 0-2 starts ATS and how they ultimately performed in Week 3. Despite slow starts, these teams have covered the spread just under 55 percent of the time in their Week 3 matchups, posting a 39-32 ATS record.<offer></offer>
Similar to last week's analysis, we wanted to find teams that are still perceived as "bad" in order to maximize contrarian betting value. To do this, I added Bet Labs' "Favorite/Dog" filter and instantly determined that underdogs cover the spread at a rate of 61.7 percent in these scenarios, compared to only 41.7 percent for favorites. The table below summarizes the results.
[h=4]Teams with 0-2 ATS records[/h]*Since 2005
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody><tfoot style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tfoot>
[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]The theory behind our Week 3 system is that the betting public continues to overreact to recent results -- specifically teams that have performed poorly ATS in consecutive weeks to start the season. It's reasonable to expect bettors will avoid teams that have not played well in either of their first two games, especially if these teams have also cost bettors money by failing to cover spreads.
At the very least, public bettors avoid these teams in Week 3 and often end up betting against them since they're widely viewed as "bad." Through shaded opening lines and/or line moves based on one-sided action, bettors are forced to take favorites in these matchups at inflated numbers, paving the way for contrarian bettors to scoop up extra value by buying back the underdogs.
Sunday's loss to the Rams has done major damage to the betting public's perception of the Bucs. Last week, Tampa Bay received 71 percent of spread bets as a favorite against St. Louis. However, losing to the Rams straight-up has stuck in the minds of bettors as the Bucs are currently garnering only 24 percent of spread action for Thursday's game against the Falcons. As contrarian bettors, we buy when the majority of bettors sell and therefore will take Tampa Bay and the points against Atlanta.
New York Giants (+2) vs. Houston Texans
The Giants have looked terrible through the first two weeks of the season, highlighted by an 11-point home loss to the Cardinals and backup quarterback Drew Stanton.
Conversely, the Texans are off to a 2-0 start and getting solid backing from bettors, with 75 percent of spread bets on the road favorite. As both a Giants fan and contrarian bettor, this is one of the more cringe-worthy plays I'll make this season, but the analysis above shows there is value taking New York and the points this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) vs. Indianapolis Colts
New season, same old Jaguars. Through two games, Jacksonville has the worst point differential in the league and now gets a hungry Indianapolis team off back-to-back close losses. Because the Colts played Monday night, we have limited betting percentage data to cite, but I'm confident in projecting that bettors will happily lay points with Andrew Luck in this matchup. We like the value of the home 'dog in this game and believe Jacksonville can keep it close enough to cover the 7-point spread.
Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Before the season began, I didn't expect to see Denver pop up as a system play all year, but here they are. While Seattle is coming off a loss to San Diego, their widely publicized home/away splits should convince enough bettors to back Seattle in this matchup. This game will likely be more evenly bet than our other Week 3 system plays, but we still like Denver at plus-4.5.
At the time of publication, the Broncos are 4.5-point underdogs at Pinnacle, yet many sportsbooks have already moved this number to plus-5, so be sure to shop for the best line and grab the extra half-point.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Carolina Panthers
With Cam Newton back under center and a defense that forced three Detroit turnovers, Carolina rolled to a 24-7 win last week and is receiving 81 percent of spread bets for Sunday night's game against Pittsburgh. Bettors obviously remember Pittsburgh's bad loss to Baltimore on national television last Thursday and want no part of the Steelers this week. However, we think these betting patterns highlight value with Pittsburgh and we'll go ahead and grab the Steelers off the key number of three.
Want to see how we created this system? Join our Free Webinar with Bet Labs manager Travis Reed Thursday at 4 p.m. ET as he illustrates how to build this system, step-by-step, as well as other tips and tricks to find betting value.
By PJ Walsh | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Through two weeks of the 2014 NFL season, contrarian betting strategies have gotten off to solid starts across the board. Underdogs alone are 19-12-1 (61.3 percent) against the spread (ATS) for a profit of almost six units. Furthermore, NFL teams receiving 40 percent or less of spread bets have produced a 16-6 (72.7 percent) ATS record for a profit of almost nine units. Not surprisingly, with underdogs and teams unpopular among bettors performing so well against the spread, our contrarian betting strategies have also been successful this season. We backed up our 4-1 ATS start in Week 1 with a 2-1 ATS record last week, putting us at 6-2 (75 percent) ATS so far this season.
In full disclosure, we don't expect to maintain a 75 percent ATS win rate throughout the entire season, but it's certainly nice to get hot early as we attempt to achieve our goal of beating the spread-betting break-even point of 52.4 percent and producing a profitable season.
This week, we'll employ another contrarian betting strategy that seeks to find value by identifying betting market overreactions based on recent results. To do this, I used our Bet Labs analysis software and built on our Week 3 analysis from last season to create a system with a 61.7 percent ATS win rate since 2005 and five bets for this week's slate of games.
To get started, I applied Bet Labs' "ATS Streak" and "Week Number" filters to examine the results of all NFL teams coming off 0-2 starts ATS and how they ultimately performed in Week 3. Despite slow starts, these teams have covered the spread just under 55 percent of the time in their Week 3 matchups, posting a 39-32 ATS record.<offer></offer>
Similar to last week's analysis, we wanted to find teams that are still perceived as "bad" in order to maximize contrarian betting value. To do this, I added Bet Labs' "Favorite/Dog" filter and instantly determined that underdogs cover the spread at a rate of 61.7 percent in these scenarios, compared to only 41.7 percent for favorites. The table below summarizes the results.
[h=4]Teams with 0-2 ATS records[/h]*Since 2005
| Week 3 | ATS Record | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 10-14 (41.7%) | -3.84 units | -16.0% |
| Underdogs | 29-18 (61.7%) | +9.77 units | +20.8% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records, units won and ROI above. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system has won or lost after factoring in the vig. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $977 ($100 x 9.77 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from a sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. |
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody><tfoot style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tfoot>
[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]The theory behind our Week 3 system is that the betting public continues to overreact to recent results -- specifically teams that have performed poorly ATS in consecutive weeks to start the season. It's reasonable to expect bettors will avoid teams that have not played well in either of their first two games, especially if these teams have also cost bettors money by failing to cover spreads.
At the very least, public bettors avoid these teams in Week 3 and often end up betting against them since they're widely viewed as "bad." Through shaded opening lines and/or line moves based on one-sided action, bettors are forced to take favorites in these matchups at inflated numbers, paving the way for contrarian bettors to scoop up extra value by buying back the underdogs.
[h=3]Week 3 system matches[/h]Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) at Atlanta FalconsSunday's loss to the Rams has done major damage to the betting public's perception of the Bucs. Last week, Tampa Bay received 71 percent of spread bets as a favorite against St. Louis. However, losing to the Rams straight-up has stuck in the minds of bettors as the Bucs are currently garnering only 24 percent of spread action for Thursday's game against the Falcons. As contrarian bettors, we buy when the majority of bettors sell and therefore will take Tampa Bay and the points against Atlanta.
New York Giants (+2) vs. Houston Texans
The Giants have looked terrible through the first two weeks of the season, highlighted by an 11-point home loss to the Cardinals and backup quarterback Drew Stanton.
Conversely, the Texans are off to a 2-0 start and getting solid backing from bettors, with 75 percent of spread bets on the road favorite. As both a Giants fan and contrarian bettor, this is one of the more cringe-worthy plays I'll make this season, but the analysis above shows there is value taking New York and the points this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) vs. Indianapolis Colts
New season, same old Jaguars. Through two games, Jacksonville has the worst point differential in the league and now gets a hungry Indianapolis team off back-to-back close losses. Because the Colts played Monday night, we have limited betting percentage data to cite, but I'm confident in projecting that bettors will happily lay points with Andrew Luck in this matchup. We like the value of the home 'dog in this game and believe Jacksonville can keep it close enough to cover the 7-point spread.
Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Before the season began, I didn't expect to see Denver pop up as a system play all year, but here they are. While Seattle is coming off a loss to San Diego, their widely publicized home/away splits should convince enough bettors to back Seattle in this matchup. This game will likely be more evenly bet than our other Week 3 system plays, but we still like Denver at plus-4.5.
At the time of publication, the Broncos are 4.5-point underdogs at Pinnacle, yet many sportsbooks have already moved this number to plus-5, so be sure to shop for the best line and grab the extra half-point.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Carolina Panthers
With Cam Newton back under center and a defense that forced three Detroit turnovers, Carolina rolled to a 24-7 win last week and is receiving 81 percent of spread bets for Sunday night's game against Pittsburgh. Bettors obviously remember Pittsburgh's bad loss to Baltimore on national television last Thursday and want no part of the Steelers this week. However, we think these betting patterns highlight value with Pittsburgh and we'll go ahead and grab the Steelers off the key number of three.
Want to see how we created this system? Join our Free Webinar with Bet Labs manager Travis Reed Thursday at 4 p.m. ET as he illustrates how to build this system, step-by-step, as well as other tips and tricks to find betting value.
