The Chris Johnson Rule
While I shamefully watched the NFL Network's version of fast food -- the Red Zone channel (like a Big Mac, it tastes great, but something about it makes you feel dirty) -- I realized a crazy fact: The number 1 player in Fantasy Football, Chris Johnson, has been on this channel inside the 20 yard line less than 5 times.
How could a guy with so few easy scoring chances be the most prolific player in Fantasy (and real) Football?
On the season Johnson has 16 touches inside the 20 yard line; the rest of the Top 10 RBs average more than double at 33. It baffled me that RZ chances were so positively correlated to Fantasy points with the rest of the Top 10, yet seem nearly irrelevant with the Ace of the group. So is Chris Johnson so explosive that he can overcome what the majority of RBs require to make an impact for their fantasy owners (lots of easy scoring chances)? Yes, which brings us to the Chris Johnson Rule.
The Chris Johnson Rule
Through 9 weeks, the dynamic Titans RB has had 40 plays (Rushing and Receiving) for a gain of 10+ yards, which leads the NFL. More impressively, Johnson has broken off plays of 25+ yards an astounding 16 TIMES! Only Adrian Peterson (11) and Michael Turner (10) are even in double digits. To give this more perspective: the Top 9 RBs behind Johnson average out to 6 runs of 25+ yard each. Chris Johnson has been close to 3 times more explosive than the other top RBs. That's amazing.
So the Chris Johnson Rule is: A RB can overcome a lack of easy scoring chances by possessing a truly special ability to break off long runs. Much like RZ stats, this quality can be seen best by looking at statistics. Here's how the Top 10 RBs look.
The Top 10
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<TBODY><TR class=tableizer-firstrow><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Total Touches</TH><TH>Fantasy Pts</TH><TH>RZ chances</TH><TH>10+</TH><TH>25+</TH></TR><TR><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>Ten</TD><TD>200</TD><TD>189</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>20% (40)</TD><TD>8% (16)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>Jac</TD><TD>201</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>17.4% (35)</TD><TD>3.9% (8)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>Min</TD><TD>202</TD><TD>169</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>17.8% (36)</TD><TD>5.4% (11)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ray Rice </TD><TD>Bal</TD><TD>177</TD><TD>153</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>20.3% (36)</TD><TD>4.5% (5)</TD></TR><TR><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>Car</TD><TD>189</TD><TD>143</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>20.6% (39) </TD><TD>2.1% (4)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>Atl</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>142</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>17% (29)</TD><TD>5.8% (10)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>NYJ</TD><TD>176</TD><TD>131</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>11.7% (20)</TD><TD>3.9% (7)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>Cin</TD><TD>215</TD><TD>128</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>12.6% (27)</TD><TD>2.3% (5)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>Mia</TD><TD>161</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>13% (21)</TD><TD>1.2% (2)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>Ind</TD><TD>162</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>13.5% (22)</TD><TD>0%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
These numbers show the explosive potential of these backs. While many have seen a good amount of their runs go for 10+ yards, Chris Johnson's ability to break off the huge run is unique.
Here are some other RBs who may fall into a similar category as Chris Johnson -- although, honestly, he's in a category by himself.
Justin Forsett, Seahawks RB
58 touches/ 20 plays of 10+ (34.5%)/ 2 plays of 25+ (3.4%)
What have the Seahawks been waiting for? Forsett has done nothing but impress since taking the field this preseason. After a huge performance on Sunday, the secret is out: this little guy can play. At just 5'8/194, he better be explosive. Trust me, he is. Of Forsett's 58 touches on the season, an unbelievable 34.5% (would lead NFL, if he had enough touches) of them have gone for 10 yards or more.
While he has yet to break many huge runs (only 2 over 25 yards), his ability to gain big chunks of yardage cannot be ignored. Granted, of all the guys we're looking at today, Forsett has just about the fewest amount of touches (so the percentages are most likely a little inflated), but the numbers speak for themselves.
Even when Julius Jones comes back, Forsett has to remain a huge part of this offense. Tim Hasselbeck has said that his brother (Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck) loves Forsett, and expects his role in the offense to continue to grow. This week's matchup is a tough one in Minnesota, so I'd leave him on the bench for this game. But Forsett should be grabbed in every league, as 3 of his next 4 games are against the Rams, Texans, and Buccaneers (with the last two coming in the playoffs). Forsett could end up being an essential part of many fantasy playoff runs.
Pierre Thomas, Saints RB
108 touches/ 21 plays of 10+ (19.4%)/ 6 plays of 25+ (5.5%)
Pierre Thomas has given his owners a tough time this season. After being a very trendy pick in drafts as a poor man's #1 RB, Thomas didn't show up for the first two weeks. However, when healthy, Thomas has been pretty good. This past week was huge disappointment, putting up a dud against the Rams, but there are good things to come.
Even if Thomas loses out on some carries in the Red Zone and at the Goal Line, his explosive ability may serve to mitigate that shortcoming. In a substantial sample size, 19.4% of Thomas' touches have resulted in 10 yards or more, while 5.5% have been over 25 yards. His 10+ yard rate is elite by any standard, while his 5.5% of 25+ yard plays is as close as anyone gets to Chris Johnson's absurd 8%. Thomas' great weakness has been inconsistent week-to-week touches, and while some of this is due to the Saints spreading the ball around, missing the first two games has deflated his ultimate value.
Even if Thomas can only muster 15 touches a game -- and I think he will get more -- his game breaking ability makes him a very good RB2 option.
Ricky Williams, Dolphins RB
123 touches/25 plays of 10+ (20.3%)/ 5 plays of 25+ (4%)
I've been a skeptic of Ricky Williams. Aside from questioning just how successful a pothead could be in a sport based on killer instinct and dedication, I had trouble trusting a RB who went many games with fewer than 10 touches. Now that Ronnie Brown is hurt -- possibly for the season -- Williams gets a huge boost in value. And as if that wasn't enough, he fits some of the Chris Johnson Rule criteria.
20.3% of his touches have gone for 10 yards or more, putting him right alongside Johnson. However, like most, Williams breakaway rate (25+ plays) of 4% is good, but pales in comparison to Johnson's super elite 8%.
Williams is a great RB1 option now, considering he's in line to combine his explosiveness with the Red Zone and Goal Line carries that he missed out on with Ronnie Brown healthy. When I revisit this Top 10 RB list in a few weeks, I expect Williams to be part of the group.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs RB
68 touches/19 plays of 10+ (27.9%)/ 3 plays of 25+ (4.4%)
Going into Sunday, I wasn't really sure how Todd Haley would use Charles and Kolby Smith, and neither was he. Smith started the game, but Charles simply outperformed him, forcing Haley to give Charles more touches. The shifty back out of Texas certainly made the most of his 22 touches, grossing 117 yards and a score. At 5-11 199, Charles is nearly the exact same size as Chris Johnson, but how does the young Chief stack up?
Out of Charles 68 touches, he's gained 10+ on 19 of them (27.9%), and he's had 3 plays of more than 25 yards (4.4%). Granted these are small samples, but Charles certainly appears to have some of the explosiveness that characterizes a top RB. Even if Kolby Smith ends up stealing some GL carries, Charles' excellent speed should make him a valuable RB going forward, assuming he continues to get around 20 touches a game.
The Chiefs face the staunch Pittsburgh Steelers' Run Defense this week, but play a very run friendly schedule thereafter (SD, BUF, CLE), so don't get discouraged if Charles doesn't follow up this week's performance with another gem.
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Reggie Bush, Saints RB
84 touches/ 20 plays of 10+ (23.8%)/ 2 plays of 25+ (2.4%)
Bush seems to be the forbidden fruit of Fantasy Football: he always looks like a great option, but when you indulge in him, bad things happen. Bush's explosive stats show why he's such a constant tease to Fantasy owners. 23.8% (20 total) of his touches have resulted in more than 10 yards, while 2 have gone for more than 25. While he does have a propensity to get substantial gains, Bush hasn't shown the breakaway ability that we witnessed at USC.
With touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 games, Bush looks like he might be a reliable flex option, even a matchup RB2 play. In the words of Lee Corso, NOT so fast my friend! He's averaging 6.8 touches over those 5 games, and no matter how explosive a RB is, that's not enough opportunity to be trusted. If Bush can get into the 12-15 touch range, he can be a reliable option as a flex play.
Jason Snelling, Falcons RB
51 touches/ 14 plays of 10+ (27.4%)/ 1 play of 25+ (1.9%)
It's hard to know what to make of Snelling. Although he had a great game last week as a replacement for Michael Turner, he may have to overcome the impending return of the dynamic Jerious Norwood. Assuming Turner is out for a good chunk of time, Snelling looks like he would be the short yardage back in the duo. But he might be more.
27.4% of Snelling's plays on the season have gone for 10 yards or more (just one of 25+). While he doesn't fit the profile of a typical explosive back, he may be more than meets the eye. However, color me skeptical. I think Norwood will split time with Snelling and prove to be the more impressive runner.
LeSean McCoy, Eagles RB
109 touches/ 18 plays of 10+ (16.5%)/ 2 plays of 25+ (1.8%)
McCoy is often compared to the man he replaced, Brian Westbrook. But this isn't fair. While very talented, McCoy hasn't shown the ability to be a game breaker thus far. While he has seen an excellent amount (16.5%) of his touches go for 10+ yards, he hasn't been a big threat to break off huge plays (just 2 out of 109 touches have gone for 25+). As long as Westbrook is out, McCoy will have ample opportunity to prove himself. Just expect okay, not great production.
Red Zone Statistics for RBs, WRs, and TEs to date:
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<TBODY><TR class=tableizer-firstrow><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>RZ Car</TH><TH>Team RZ</TH><TH>RZ%</TH><TH>GL Car</TH><TH>Team GL</TH><TH>GL %</TH><TH>TD</TH><TH>RZ tar</TH><TH>RZ Chances</TH></TR><TR><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>92.7%</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>43</TD></TR><TR><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>54</TD><TD>70.4%</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>82.6%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>41</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>65.0%</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>71.4%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>40</TD></TR><TR><TD>Matt Forte</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>83.7%</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>90.0%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>39</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>62.3%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>72.7%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>37</TD></TR><TR><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>Indiannapolis Colts</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>68.9%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>57.1%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>36</TD></TR><TR><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>43.1%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>47.6%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ladanian Tomlinson</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>83.3%</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>78.3%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>31</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>93.3%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>52.9%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>47.6%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ryan Grant</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>79.3%</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>78.6%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>60.5%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>88.9%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>28.1%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>15.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>37.5%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons </TD><TD>23</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>82.1%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>24</TD></TR><TR><TD>Knowshon Moreno</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>62.5%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>42.9%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>23</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Slaton</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>38.3%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>23.1%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>22</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>90.5%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Clinton Portis</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>65.4%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>33.3%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>40.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>26.0%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>16.0%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>26.7%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>23.8%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>76.2%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>66.7%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kevin Smith</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>68.0%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Laurence Maroney</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>43.2%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>62.5%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Amhad Bradshaw</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>35.8%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>27.3%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>65.4%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>71.4%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>52.9%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>18.2%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tim Hightower</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>44.1%</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>81.8%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chris Brown</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>34.0%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>38.5%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Frank Gore</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>78.6%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>39.5%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR><TD>Marion Barber</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>71.4%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>83.3%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jamal Lewis</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>64.0%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>77.8%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>Tennesee Titans</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>45.2%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>60.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Bell</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>28.1%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kevin Faulk</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>0.0%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>15</TD></TR><TR><TD>Fred Jackson</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>37.9%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>42.9%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>14</TD></TR><TR><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>Indiannapolis Colts</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>31.1%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>42.9%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>14</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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<TBODY><TR class=tableizer-firstrow><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team </TH><TH>RZ Targets</TH><TH>Team RZ</TH><TH>RZ%</TH><TH>TD</TH></TR><TR><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>30.0%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>34.0%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>37.8%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>31.4%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Randy Moss</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>26.2%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>30.6%</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>35.9%</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>TJ Houshmandzadeh</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>26.9%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>28.3%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Bernard Berrian</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>26.5%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Andre Johnson</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>26.7%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>Tennesee Titans</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>44.4%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>30.6%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chad Ochocinco</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Roy Williams</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>24.4%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sidney Rice</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>22.4%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>34.4%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>29.4%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Austin Collie</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>20.4%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>25.6%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>19.2%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Roddy White </TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jhonny Knox</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>18.0%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Andre Caldwell</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Laveranues Coles</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Sims-Walker</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>37.5%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visante Schiancoe</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>18.4%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>14.8%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>23.1%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Vincent Jackson</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>23.7%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>15.7%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mark Clayton</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>29.6%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chansi Stuckey</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>38.1%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eddie Royal</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>18.2%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Braylon Edwards</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>28.6%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>17.8%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>John Carlson</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>15.4%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>13.7%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Lee Evans</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>25.9%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Desmond Clark</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>14.0%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Devin Hester</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>14.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>15.9%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Donald Lee</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>15.9%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>14.3%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Anthony Fasano</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jeremy Shockey</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>11.7%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>24.1%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jason Avant</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>15.6%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Antonio Gates</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>18.4%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Josh Morgan</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>21.9%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Randy McMichael</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>21.9%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>18.9%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Patrick Crayton</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>13.6%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>18.8%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>26.1%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dallas Clark</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>12.2%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mario Mannigham</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>15.4%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Bo Scaife</TD><TD>Tennesee Titans</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>22.2%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Devin Thomas</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>17.1%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>17.1%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
While I shamefully watched the NFL Network's version of fast food -- the Red Zone channel (like a Big Mac, it tastes great, but something about it makes you feel dirty) -- I realized a crazy fact: The number 1 player in Fantasy Football, Chris Johnson, has been on this channel inside the 20 yard line less than 5 times.
How could a guy with so few easy scoring chances be the most prolific player in Fantasy (and real) Football?
On the season Johnson has 16 touches inside the 20 yard line; the rest of the Top 10 RBs average more than double at 33. It baffled me that RZ chances were so positively correlated to Fantasy points with the rest of the Top 10, yet seem nearly irrelevant with the Ace of the group. So is Chris Johnson so explosive that he can overcome what the majority of RBs require to make an impact for their fantasy owners (lots of easy scoring chances)? Yes, which brings us to the Chris Johnson Rule.
The Chris Johnson Rule
Through 9 weeks, the dynamic Titans RB has had 40 plays (Rushing and Receiving) for a gain of 10+ yards, which leads the NFL. More impressively, Johnson has broken off plays of 25+ yards an astounding 16 TIMES! Only Adrian Peterson (11) and Michael Turner (10) are even in double digits. To give this more perspective: the Top 9 RBs behind Johnson average out to 6 runs of 25+ yard each. Chris Johnson has been close to 3 times more explosive than the other top RBs. That's amazing.
So the Chris Johnson Rule is: A RB can overcome a lack of easy scoring chances by possessing a truly special ability to break off long runs. Much like RZ stats, this quality can be seen best by looking at statistics. Here's how the Top 10 RBs look.
The Top 10
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<TBODY><TR class=tableizer-firstrow><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Total Touches</TH><TH>Fantasy Pts</TH><TH>RZ chances</TH><TH>10+</TH><TH>25+</TH></TR><TR><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>Ten</TD><TD>200</TD><TD>189</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>20% (40)</TD><TD>8% (16)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>Jac</TD><TD>201</TD><TD>178</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>17.4% (35)</TD><TD>3.9% (8)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>Min</TD><TD>202</TD><TD>169</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>17.8% (36)</TD><TD>5.4% (11)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ray Rice </TD><TD>Bal</TD><TD>177</TD><TD>153</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>20.3% (36)</TD><TD>4.5% (5)</TD></TR><TR><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>Car</TD><TD>189</TD><TD>143</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>20.6% (39) </TD><TD>2.1% (4)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>Atl</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>142</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>17% (29)</TD><TD>5.8% (10)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>NYJ</TD><TD>176</TD><TD>131</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>11.7% (20)</TD><TD>3.9% (7)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>Cin</TD><TD>215</TD><TD>128</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>12.6% (27)</TD><TD>2.3% (5)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>Mia</TD><TD>161</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>13% (21)</TD><TD>1.2% (2)</TD></TR><TR><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>Ind</TD><TD>162</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>13.5% (22)</TD><TD>0%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
These numbers show the explosive potential of these backs. While many have seen a good amount of their runs go for 10+ yards, Chris Johnson's ability to break off the huge run is unique.
Here are some other RBs who may fall into a similar category as Chris Johnson -- although, honestly, he's in a category by himself.
Justin Forsett, Seahawks RB
58 touches/ 20 plays of 10+ (34.5%)/ 2 plays of 25+ (3.4%)
What have the Seahawks been waiting for? Forsett has done nothing but impress since taking the field this preseason. After a huge performance on Sunday, the secret is out: this little guy can play. At just 5'8/194, he better be explosive. Trust me, he is. Of Forsett's 58 touches on the season, an unbelievable 34.5% (would lead NFL, if he had enough touches) of them have gone for 10 yards or more.
While he has yet to break many huge runs (only 2 over 25 yards), his ability to gain big chunks of yardage cannot be ignored. Granted, of all the guys we're looking at today, Forsett has just about the fewest amount of touches (so the percentages are most likely a little inflated), but the numbers speak for themselves.
Even when Julius Jones comes back, Forsett has to remain a huge part of this offense. Tim Hasselbeck has said that his brother (Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck) loves Forsett, and expects his role in the offense to continue to grow. This week's matchup is a tough one in Minnesota, so I'd leave him on the bench for this game. But Forsett should be grabbed in every league, as 3 of his next 4 games are against the Rams, Texans, and Buccaneers (with the last two coming in the playoffs). Forsett could end up being an essential part of many fantasy playoff runs.
Pierre Thomas, Saints RB
108 touches/ 21 plays of 10+ (19.4%)/ 6 plays of 25+ (5.5%)
Pierre Thomas has given his owners a tough time this season. After being a very trendy pick in drafts as a poor man's #1 RB, Thomas didn't show up for the first two weeks. However, when healthy, Thomas has been pretty good. This past week was huge disappointment, putting up a dud against the Rams, but there are good things to come.
Even if Thomas loses out on some carries in the Red Zone and at the Goal Line, his explosive ability may serve to mitigate that shortcoming. In a substantial sample size, 19.4% of Thomas' touches have resulted in 10 yards or more, while 5.5% have been over 25 yards. His 10+ yard rate is elite by any standard, while his 5.5% of 25+ yard plays is as close as anyone gets to Chris Johnson's absurd 8%. Thomas' great weakness has been inconsistent week-to-week touches, and while some of this is due to the Saints spreading the ball around, missing the first two games has deflated his ultimate value.
Even if Thomas can only muster 15 touches a game -- and I think he will get more -- his game breaking ability makes him a very good RB2 option.
Ricky Williams, Dolphins RB
123 touches/25 plays of 10+ (20.3%)/ 5 plays of 25+ (4%)
I've been a skeptic of Ricky Williams. Aside from questioning just how successful a pothead could be in a sport based on killer instinct and dedication, I had trouble trusting a RB who went many games with fewer than 10 touches. Now that Ronnie Brown is hurt -- possibly for the season -- Williams gets a huge boost in value. And as if that wasn't enough, he fits some of the Chris Johnson Rule criteria.
20.3% of his touches have gone for 10 yards or more, putting him right alongside Johnson. However, like most, Williams breakaway rate (25+ plays) of 4% is good, but pales in comparison to Johnson's super elite 8%.
Williams is a great RB1 option now, considering he's in line to combine his explosiveness with the Red Zone and Goal Line carries that he missed out on with Ronnie Brown healthy. When I revisit this Top 10 RB list in a few weeks, I expect Williams to be part of the group.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs RB
68 touches/19 plays of 10+ (27.9%)/ 3 plays of 25+ (4.4%)
Going into Sunday, I wasn't really sure how Todd Haley would use Charles and Kolby Smith, and neither was he. Smith started the game, but Charles simply outperformed him, forcing Haley to give Charles more touches. The shifty back out of Texas certainly made the most of his 22 touches, grossing 117 yards and a score. At 5-11 199, Charles is nearly the exact same size as Chris Johnson, but how does the young Chief stack up?
Out of Charles 68 touches, he's gained 10+ on 19 of them (27.9%), and he's had 3 plays of more than 25 yards (4.4%). Granted these are small samples, but Charles certainly appears to have some of the explosiveness that characterizes a top RB. Even if Kolby Smith ends up stealing some GL carries, Charles' excellent speed should make him a valuable RB going forward, assuming he continues to get around 20 touches a game.
The Chiefs face the staunch Pittsburgh Steelers' Run Defense this week, but play a very run friendly schedule thereafter (SD, BUF, CLE), so don't get discouraged if Charles doesn't follow up this week's performance with another gem.
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Reggie Bush, Saints RB
84 touches/ 20 plays of 10+ (23.8%)/ 2 plays of 25+ (2.4%)
Bush seems to be the forbidden fruit of Fantasy Football: he always looks like a great option, but when you indulge in him, bad things happen. Bush's explosive stats show why he's such a constant tease to Fantasy owners. 23.8% (20 total) of his touches have resulted in more than 10 yards, while 2 have gone for more than 25. While he does have a propensity to get substantial gains, Bush hasn't shown the breakaway ability that we witnessed at USC.
With touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 games, Bush looks like he might be a reliable flex option, even a matchup RB2 play. In the words of Lee Corso, NOT so fast my friend! He's averaging 6.8 touches over those 5 games, and no matter how explosive a RB is, that's not enough opportunity to be trusted. If Bush can get into the 12-15 touch range, he can be a reliable option as a flex play.
Jason Snelling, Falcons RB
51 touches/ 14 plays of 10+ (27.4%)/ 1 play of 25+ (1.9%)
It's hard to know what to make of Snelling. Although he had a great game last week as a replacement for Michael Turner, he may have to overcome the impending return of the dynamic Jerious Norwood. Assuming Turner is out for a good chunk of time, Snelling looks like he would be the short yardage back in the duo. But he might be more.
27.4% of Snelling's plays on the season have gone for 10 yards or more (just one of 25+). While he doesn't fit the profile of a typical explosive back, he may be more than meets the eye. However, color me skeptical. I think Norwood will split time with Snelling and prove to be the more impressive runner.
LeSean McCoy, Eagles RB
109 touches/ 18 plays of 10+ (16.5%)/ 2 plays of 25+ (1.8%)
McCoy is often compared to the man he replaced, Brian Westbrook. But this isn't fair. While very talented, McCoy hasn't shown the ability to be a game breaker thus far. While he has seen an excellent amount (16.5%) of his touches go for 10+ yards, he hasn't been a big threat to break off huge plays (just 2 out of 109 touches have gone for 25+). As long as Westbrook is out, McCoy will have ample opportunity to prove himself. Just expect okay, not great production.
Red Zone Statistics for RBs, WRs, and TEs to date:
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<TABLE class=tableizer-table>
<TBODY><TR class=tableizer-firstrow><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>RZ Car</TH><TH>Team RZ</TH><TH>RZ%</TH><TH>GL Car</TH><TH>Team GL</TH><TH>GL %</TH><TH>TD</TH><TH>RZ tar</TH><TH>RZ Chances</TH></TR><TR><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>92.7%</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>43</TD></TR><TR><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>54</TD><TD>70.4%</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>82.6%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>41</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>65.0%</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>71.4%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>40</TD></TR><TR><TD>Matt Forte</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>83.7%</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>90.0%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>39</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>62.3%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>72.7%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>37</TD></TR><TR><TD>Joseph Addai</TD><TD>Indiannapolis Colts</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>68.9%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>57.1%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>36</TD></TR><TR><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>43.1%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>47.6%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ladanian Tomlinson</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>83.3%</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>78.3%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>31</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>93.3%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>30</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>52.9%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>47.6%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ryan Grant</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>79.3%</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>78.6%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Thomas Jones</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>60.5%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>88.9%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>28.1%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>15.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>37.5%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons </TD><TD>23</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>82.1%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>24</TD></TR><TR><TD>Knowshon Moreno</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>62.5%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>42.9%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>23</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Slaton</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>38.3%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>23.1%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>22</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>90.5%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Clinton Portis</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>65.4%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>33.3%</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>40.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>26.0%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>16.0%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>26.7%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>23.8%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR><TD>Marshawn Lynch</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>76.2%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>66.7%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kevin Smith</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>68.0%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Laurence Maroney</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>43.2%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>62.5%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Amhad Bradshaw</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>35.8%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>27.3%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>65.4%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>71.4%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Beanie Wells</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>52.9%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>18.2%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tim Hightower</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>44.1%</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>81.8%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chris Brown</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>34.0%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>38.5%</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Frank Gore</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>78.6%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>100.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR><TD>Willis McGahee</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>39.5%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>50.0%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR><TD>Marion Barber</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>71.4%</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>83.3%</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jamal Lewis</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>64.0%</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>77.8%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chris Johnson</TD><TD>Tennesee Titans</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>45.2%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>60.0%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Bell</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>28.1%</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>16</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kevin Faulk</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>0.0%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>15</TD></TR><TR><TD>Fred Jackson</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>37.9%</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>42.9%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>14</TD></TR><TR><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>Indiannapolis Colts</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>31.1%</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>42.9%</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>14</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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<TBODY><TR class=tableizer-firstrow><TH>Player</TH><TH>Team </TH><TH>RZ Targets</TH><TH>Team RZ</TH><TH>RZ%</TH><TH>TD</TH></TR><TR><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>30.0%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>34.0%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>37.8%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Larry Fitzgerald</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>31.4%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Randy Moss</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>26.2%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>30.6%</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>35.9%</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>TJ Houshmandzadeh</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>26.9%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dwayne Bowe</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>28.3%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Bernard Berrian</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>26.5%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Andre Johnson</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>26.7%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nate Washington</TD><TD>Tennesee Titans</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>44.4%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>30.6%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chad Ochocinco</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>5</TD></TR><TR><TD>Roy Williams</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>24.4%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Sidney Rice</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>22.4%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>34.4%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>29.4%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Austin Collie</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>20.4%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>25.6%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>19.2%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Roddy White </TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jhonny Knox</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>18.0%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Andre Caldwell</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Laveranues Coles</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mike Sims-Walker</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>37.5%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Visante Schiancoe</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>18.4%</TD><TD>6</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>14.8%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>23.1%</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Vincent Jackson</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>23.7%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steve Breaston</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>15.7%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mark Clayton</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>29.6%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chansi Stuckey</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>38.1%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eddie Royal</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Donald Driver</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>18.2%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Braylon Edwards</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>28.6%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>17.8%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>20.5%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>John Carlson</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>15.4%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>13.7%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Lee Evans</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>25.9%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Desmond Clark</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>14.0%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Devin Hester</TD><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>14.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>15.9%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Donald Lee</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>15.9%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>14.3%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Anthony Fasano</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>25.0%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jeremy Shockey</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>11.7%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>24.1%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jason Avant</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>15.6%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Antonio Gates</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>38</TD><TD>18.4%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Josh Morgan</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>21.9%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Randy McMichael</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>21.9%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>18.9%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Patrick Crayton</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>13.6%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>32</TD><TD>18.8%</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>23</TD><TD>26.1%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dallas Clark</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>12.2%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mario Mannigham</TD><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>15.4%</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR><TD>Bo Scaife</TD><TD>Tennesee Titans</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>22.2%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Devin Thomas</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>17.1%</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>17.1%</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>