I've been in a slump over the last three weeks so you might want to tread carefully over these final three games of the season, if you're not already.
That slumped included losing my 4% total last week in a game that played out, yardage wise, just like I thought. The Packers gained 381 yards of total offense, while Philly gained 363 total yards. In a normal NFL football game, that would produce a final score of 25-24 in favor of GB. Using just the Packers and Eagles offensive and defensive numbers, it would have produced a final score of 24-25 in favor of Philly. I predicted the final yards to be 372-317 in favor of GB but the Packers missed on a key fourth and goal at the end of the first half, which would have forced the action and had us on our way. That's why they call it gambling and these types of things can happen. The one reason I didn't think it would be as easy as my first 4% play this year is because the defenses were better but I thought the offenses would perform well enough to overcome that.
Last week I talked about the home teams dominance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, in terms of SU wins. After last weeks results, the home teams over the last 21 years have won at least two of the four games every year, and only four of those twenty-one years have they only won two, one of which was last week.
Last week also became only the fourth time in the last twenty-one seasons that the home teams have failed to at least break even against the spread. And it was a terrible week for the home teams, going 0-4 against the spread. I had warned you that New England and the Rams were not in good situations but even Philly, who was in a good situation, was in a terrible match-up, fundamentally. Even Kansas City and Philly, who were in great situations, failed to cover the spread. Just goes to show you need to look at these games from a fundamental and technical standpoint.
On to the Conference Championship games and my database for these games goes back to 1970, which was the first year after the NFL and AFL merged, and there is plenty of data to look at for these games. Coming into this year, there have been 66 games played in the CC since 1970. When the line is less than 10 points, the team winning the game is a perfect 54-0-2 ats. Essentially, whoever wins the game straight up also wins the game against the spread. That's especially relevant this week with the lines being so low. However, trying to predict the SU winner isn't always as easy as it may seem. But, it seems a safe bet to ignore the lines and just pick the SU winner.
There is one simple situation, which applies to this week's games. I list that situation as Strategy #26 in my book, The Unemotional Football Bettor, where the NFL strategies have gone 77-56-5 57.9% this year. Do a search at google.com for The Unemotional Football Bettor if you're looking for some great strategies to add to your NFL arsenal. I list every game played since 1970 with team stats, lines, scores, etc. for each of the 33 years of Conference Championship games.
Again, the strategy is so simple you will be tempted to dismiss it because of its simplicity but that would be a mistake. If, for the sake of discussion, we can accept that the better defense is the team who has allowed the fewest points during the regular season, we note that these teams over the last 33 years (66 games played) are now 46-18-2 71.90% against the spread. That's a sample of 66 games and producing nearly 72% winners. That's good. This same situation went 2-0 last year, including picking Tampa Bay, a team many said had no chance of winning that game. They showed defense wins these games. Over those 33 years, only four years has the better defensive team gone 0-2 against the spread (one other year they went 0-1-1), and 17 years where they have gone 2-0. So, over the last 33 years, five times the better defensive team would have produced a losing day (15.2%), 17 times you would have gone 2-0 (51.5%) and 11 times (33%) you would have broke even (minus the juice). You have a 3-1 advantage of winning over losing by simply playing these teams, which are New England and Philadelphia.
Let's look at some specific examples of this defensive situation. Over each of those four 0-2 seasons, at least one team was an underdog. There have been ten years where both teams with the better defense were favored in the Championship game. Over those ten seasons, those teams have gone 2-0 for that year six times, gone 1-1 three times and gone 0-1-1 only once. So, of the four seasons where the better defensive team went 0-2, it has never occurred when both teams have been favored. And six times the better defensive teams have both been home favorites. They have gone 2-0 four times, 1-1 once and 0-1-1 once. Home teams as the better defensive team are 29-10-1 while the better defensive road team is 17-8-1. Favorites are 27-8-1 and dogs are 19-10-1. If the favorite has two or more regular season net wins (New England 14 versus 12), they are 17-2 against the spread. My suggestion for this weekend it to rely on a situation that is simple, makes sense, and in my opinion, gives you the best chance to win money.
Last point on the CC games. Home teams overall are 43-23 SU and 36-28-2 ats over the last 33 years. In only two of the 33 years have the home teams gone 0-2 SU and both of those years saw at least one home dog in those games and in 1997 both teams were home dogs. During the first 21 years of the CC game, the home teams never went 0-2 ats but five of the last 12 years have seen the home team go 0-2 ats. But, remember, the important stat here is the points allowed situation, which I referred to above and those are the numbers to rely on this weekend.
All side opinions went 2-2 last week and are now 139-114-9 55% over the first nineteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -3 Indianapolis 43.5
As mentioned above, New England qualifies in my Conference Championship game situation, which is 46-18-2 and will be the primary reason I am playing this game, but there are other reasons as well. NE also qualifies in the 17-2 subset, which I talked about above. NE didn't look very good in their game against Tennessee last week, averaging just 4.4 yppl, while allowing Tennessee to average 5.2 yppl. Once again, however, NE found a way to win that game, which has been their style all year long.
In their first meeting with Indy this year, the final score was 38-34, but the final total is very misleading for a number of reasons. First, NE only averaged 4.9 yppl and Indy was even worse, at 4.7 yppl. Knowing that the average plays in a NFL game are about 64, two teams who averaged about 4.8 yppl in their first game, should only total about 307 yards each in this game. With that total of yards, this game should see closer to around 40 points for a regular NFL game and about 43 points when using both of these teams offensive and defensive numbers. The point here is the 72 points in the first game was a fluky number. NE won that first game, out averaged Indy 4.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl and lost the turnover battle by -2. I would be very careful of taking Indy, who couldn't win the first game and they won the turnover battle. Yes, I realize Indy was very close to winning that game at the end of the game but the point is they were out averaged from a yards per play standpoint, which could very well happen again this week because they are on the road and Indy won the turnover battle, which isn't likely to happen this week. Brady hasn't thrown an interception at home all year long.
Indy wins their games when they can throw the ball. The most interesting stat from the first game was Indy only averaged 5.4 yps in that game. Other than the NE game, when Indy has averaged under 6.0 yps in their games this year, they haven't scored more than 23 points in a game, have averaged only 20 points per game and have a median of only about 18.5 points per game in the six games they have averaged less than 6.0 yps. Four of those games were on the road and they only averaged 17 points per game in those games. During the regular season, NE allowed just 5.0 yps against teams who were averaging 5.8 yps. Against teams who allowed 0.5 yps less than their opponents were averaging, Indy averaged 22 points per game (again six games) and on the road they averaged 21 points per game (three games) with one of those games being the 38 points they scored at TB. But, I consider that to be more of a fluke seeing TB lost some key people in their secondary in that game. The median for those three road games is just 17 points. The bottom line here is I don't see Indy getting more than 23 points in this game. And, quite frankly, I don't see them getting more than 17 points in this game. Indy has only played two games on the road this year against teams who are above average against both, the run and the pass. They struggled to score 17 points at Buffalo and scored 38 points at TB in that Monday night game but again, injuries, I believe, greatly aided Indy late in that game. Indy gained 301 yards of their 455 yards gained in that game in the fourth quarter. You have to give them credit but they took advantage of a depleted Bucs secondary.
Indianapolis has allowed 21 points per game this year during the regular season. Those numbers don't get it done, on the road, in the Championship game and past history backs that up. Since 1970, 11 teams have taken to the road in their Conference Championship game allowing 20 or more points during the regular season. Those 11 teams have gone just 2-9 ats with most recent losses by Tennessee last year, 24-41 and in 2000 by the Vikings, 0-41. The average score in those games was 27-14. In five of those games, the road team was allowing 21 or more points per game and those five teams went 0-5 ats. In other words, Indy will be bringing the sixth worse defense to ever go on the road in a Conference Championship game. There is one caveat to the Indy defense that deserves to be mentioned and that is they only allow 299 yards per game to teams who averaged 312 yards per game, which would seem to indicate their defense is above average. I think that is important but the most important number is points allowed. Indy, like Philadelphia, is content on allowing teams to rush the ball for five yards a pop, but avoiding allowing teams to gain 20 yards a pass play, figuring the teams will make some mistakes before they drive the length of the field. Unfortunately, for Indy, those teams aren't making enough mistakes and, unlike Philly, they are allowing those teams to score some points.
The 46-18-2 situation, along with the 17-2 subset, past history of defenses this bad failing miserably in this game and the fact Indy allows 4.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr isn't good news for Indy. NE is above average throwing the ball, averaging 6.0 yps against 5.8 yps and if Indy tries to stop the run, NE will be able to go over the top. Indy beat a banged up Denver team and then defeated a team who couldn't play defense. Let's remember Indy also didn't force KC to punt the ball and allowed KC to gain 408 yards at 6.8 yppl last week. I would play the under here but I think the number is close to where it should be and the weather appears to be better on Sunday. I strongly believe NE will cover this game and although my research indicates Indy will only score about 17 points in this game, it also seems tough to figure they can be held to only 17 points. If I believe NE covers and Indy may score more than 17 points, then the under doesn't really have a chance and for that reason I will stay away from the under and only lean towards it. NEW ENGLAND 26 INDIANAPOLIS 17
PHILADELPHIA -4 Carolina 36.5
This game gets a little tougher to sell Philly on because, from a fundamental standpoint, Carolina looks like they can stay in this game. In some regards, this is the exact same match-up that Carolina saw last week, in a defense that allows you to run on them and a pass defense that is just average. The big difference between the Rams and the Eagles is the Eagles, as we saw last week, don't allow you to score touchdowns once you get inside the 20 yard line. Many will say the Rams also have a better offense, making this game even easier for Carolina. I have been saying this all year long, said it last week as well, and that is the Rams were so overrated this year it wasn't even funny. The Rams offense lived off it's past and the numbers were so misleading, some of which I forgot to point out last week. The Rams passing offense was rated third in the league, in terms of yards per game, but that stat is so misleading it's not even funny. If you throw the ball over 60% of the time, you are going to gain yards in the passing game too. That's what the Rams did. In fact, when looking at yards per pass, there were nine other teams, who were better than them. Carolina passed for 6.3 yps while the Rams were at only 6.2 yps. People will point out the Rams scored 447 points during the regular season, tying for the second most points in the league. That's a farce too. The Rams scored only 42 touchdowns during the regular season (rushing and receiving), which was good for just the sixth best mark in the NFL. The point here is Carolina beat just an average team last week
For Philadelphia, well, they beat what I considered to be the second best team in the league and a team you could argue was the best team in the league from a stats perspective. Now, as we saw last week, stats don't win games, head coaching, etc. also wins games, which is probably why NE has 14 wins and GB only had 10 wins but look at some of these numbers. GB scored 50 touchdowns this year on offense from rushing and receiving (Carolina only scored 28). Those 50 touchdowns were the second best in the league, behind only Kansas City, who had 56 touchdowns. The Packers also allowed only 28 touchdowns from rushing and receiving (Carolina allowed 29). The difference between the two, for the Packers is +22 (50-28), which is by far and away the best number for any team in the playoffs. NE is at just +11, as is Tennessee, while Philadelphia and St. Louis were at +10. Carolina is at -1, scoring 28 touchdowns and allowing 29 touchdowns. Again, the point here is Carolina beat a very average team last week, while Philly certainly struggled, but against a high powered offense and a defense that played well during the course of the season. Carolina, while good and getting better each week, doesn't represent what GB had to offer. GB has a better quarterback, running back, wide receivers and offensive line. The Carolina defense was better, from a yards per play perspective, but not from a touchdowns allowed perspective, which makes it pretty close in terms of defense. For Philly, they scored 40 touchdowns this year and allowed 30 touchdowns, which makes their offense better and the defenses about even. Again, it's hard to make a case for a team allowing 4.5 ypr during the regular season. The major points here are the better defense (points per game) has been a solid predictor for the last 33 years and favors Philly in this game. Also, Carolina, while looking good last week, beat an average team, while Philly, who did not look good, was finding a way to beat a very, very good Packer team. That's not just my favoritism towards the Packers because the numbers I just showed you back that up. Unfortunately for GB, they couldn't find a way to win, while Philly did, which is what they always seem to be able to do, just like New England does. Final numbers in this game predict a 4.5 point Philly win (my power ratings) and a seven point Philly win (score predictor). I also think this game has a chance to be higher than "they" think. PHILADELPHIA 27 CAROLINA 20
BEST BETS
YTD 58-48-5 +10.20%
3% NEW ENGLAND -3
2% PHILADELPHIA -4
That slumped included losing my 4% total last week in a game that played out, yardage wise, just like I thought. The Packers gained 381 yards of total offense, while Philly gained 363 total yards. In a normal NFL football game, that would produce a final score of 25-24 in favor of GB. Using just the Packers and Eagles offensive and defensive numbers, it would have produced a final score of 24-25 in favor of Philly. I predicted the final yards to be 372-317 in favor of GB but the Packers missed on a key fourth and goal at the end of the first half, which would have forced the action and had us on our way. That's why they call it gambling and these types of things can happen. The one reason I didn't think it would be as easy as my first 4% play this year is because the defenses were better but I thought the offenses would perform well enough to overcome that.
Last week I talked about the home teams dominance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, in terms of SU wins. After last weeks results, the home teams over the last 21 years have won at least two of the four games every year, and only four of those twenty-one years have they only won two, one of which was last week.
Last week also became only the fourth time in the last twenty-one seasons that the home teams have failed to at least break even against the spread. And it was a terrible week for the home teams, going 0-4 against the spread. I had warned you that New England and the Rams were not in good situations but even Philly, who was in a good situation, was in a terrible match-up, fundamentally. Even Kansas City and Philly, who were in great situations, failed to cover the spread. Just goes to show you need to look at these games from a fundamental and technical standpoint.
On to the Conference Championship games and my database for these games goes back to 1970, which was the first year after the NFL and AFL merged, and there is plenty of data to look at for these games. Coming into this year, there have been 66 games played in the CC since 1970. When the line is less than 10 points, the team winning the game is a perfect 54-0-2 ats. Essentially, whoever wins the game straight up also wins the game against the spread. That's especially relevant this week with the lines being so low. However, trying to predict the SU winner isn't always as easy as it may seem. But, it seems a safe bet to ignore the lines and just pick the SU winner.
There is one simple situation, which applies to this week's games. I list that situation as Strategy #26 in my book, The Unemotional Football Bettor, where the NFL strategies have gone 77-56-5 57.9% this year. Do a search at google.com for The Unemotional Football Bettor if you're looking for some great strategies to add to your NFL arsenal. I list every game played since 1970 with team stats, lines, scores, etc. for each of the 33 years of Conference Championship games.
Again, the strategy is so simple you will be tempted to dismiss it because of its simplicity but that would be a mistake. If, for the sake of discussion, we can accept that the better defense is the team who has allowed the fewest points during the regular season, we note that these teams over the last 33 years (66 games played) are now 46-18-2 71.90% against the spread. That's a sample of 66 games and producing nearly 72% winners. That's good. This same situation went 2-0 last year, including picking Tampa Bay, a team many said had no chance of winning that game. They showed defense wins these games. Over those 33 years, only four years has the better defensive team gone 0-2 against the spread (one other year they went 0-1-1), and 17 years where they have gone 2-0. So, over the last 33 years, five times the better defensive team would have produced a losing day (15.2%), 17 times you would have gone 2-0 (51.5%) and 11 times (33%) you would have broke even (minus the juice). You have a 3-1 advantage of winning over losing by simply playing these teams, which are New England and Philadelphia.
Let's look at some specific examples of this defensive situation. Over each of those four 0-2 seasons, at least one team was an underdog. There have been ten years where both teams with the better defense were favored in the Championship game. Over those ten seasons, those teams have gone 2-0 for that year six times, gone 1-1 three times and gone 0-1-1 only once. So, of the four seasons where the better defensive team went 0-2, it has never occurred when both teams have been favored. And six times the better defensive teams have both been home favorites. They have gone 2-0 four times, 1-1 once and 0-1-1 once. Home teams as the better defensive team are 29-10-1 while the better defensive road team is 17-8-1. Favorites are 27-8-1 and dogs are 19-10-1. If the favorite has two or more regular season net wins (New England 14 versus 12), they are 17-2 against the spread. My suggestion for this weekend it to rely on a situation that is simple, makes sense, and in my opinion, gives you the best chance to win money.
Last point on the CC games. Home teams overall are 43-23 SU and 36-28-2 ats over the last 33 years. In only two of the 33 years have the home teams gone 0-2 SU and both of those years saw at least one home dog in those games and in 1997 both teams were home dogs. During the first 21 years of the CC game, the home teams never went 0-2 ats but five of the last 12 years have seen the home team go 0-2 ats. But, remember, the important stat here is the points allowed situation, which I referred to above and those are the numbers to rely on this weekend.
All side opinions went 2-2 last week and are now 139-114-9 55% over the first nineteen weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -3 Indianapolis 43.5
As mentioned above, New England qualifies in my Conference Championship game situation, which is 46-18-2 and will be the primary reason I am playing this game, but there are other reasons as well. NE also qualifies in the 17-2 subset, which I talked about above. NE didn't look very good in their game against Tennessee last week, averaging just 4.4 yppl, while allowing Tennessee to average 5.2 yppl. Once again, however, NE found a way to win that game, which has been their style all year long.
In their first meeting with Indy this year, the final score was 38-34, but the final total is very misleading for a number of reasons. First, NE only averaged 4.9 yppl and Indy was even worse, at 4.7 yppl. Knowing that the average plays in a NFL game are about 64, two teams who averaged about 4.8 yppl in their first game, should only total about 307 yards each in this game. With that total of yards, this game should see closer to around 40 points for a regular NFL game and about 43 points when using both of these teams offensive and defensive numbers. The point here is the 72 points in the first game was a fluky number. NE won that first game, out averaged Indy 4.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl and lost the turnover battle by -2. I would be very careful of taking Indy, who couldn't win the first game and they won the turnover battle. Yes, I realize Indy was very close to winning that game at the end of the game but the point is they were out averaged from a yards per play standpoint, which could very well happen again this week because they are on the road and Indy won the turnover battle, which isn't likely to happen this week. Brady hasn't thrown an interception at home all year long.
Indy wins their games when they can throw the ball. The most interesting stat from the first game was Indy only averaged 5.4 yps in that game. Other than the NE game, when Indy has averaged under 6.0 yps in their games this year, they haven't scored more than 23 points in a game, have averaged only 20 points per game and have a median of only about 18.5 points per game in the six games they have averaged less than 6.0 yps. Four of those games were on the road and they only averaged 17 points per game in those games. During the regular season, NE allowed just 5.0 yps against teams who were averaging 5.8 yps. Against teams who allowed 0.5 yps less than their opponents were averaging, Indy averaged 22 points per game (again six games) and on the road they averaged 21 points per game (three games) with one of those games being the 38 points they scored at TB. But, I consider that to be more of a fluke seeing TB lost some key people in their secondary in that game. The median for those three road games is just 17 points. The bottom line here is I don't see Indy getting more than 23 points in this game. And, quite frankly, I don't see them getting more than 17 points in this game. Indy has only played two games on the road this year against teams who are above average against both, the run and the pass. They struggled to score 17 points at Buffalo and scored 38 points at TB in that Monday night game but again, injuries, I believe, greatly aided Indy late in that game. Indy gained 301 yards of their 455 yards gained in that game in the fourth quarter. You have to give them credit but they took advantage of a depleted Bucs secondary.
Indianapolis has allowed 21 points per game this year during the regular season. Those numbers don't get it done, on the road, in the Championship game and past history backs that up. Since 1970, 11 teams have taken to the road in their Conference Championship game allowing 20 or more points during the regular season. Those 11 teams have gone just 2-9 ats with most recent losses by Tennessee last year, 24-41 and in 2000 by the Vikings, 0-41. The average score in those games was 27-14. In five of those games, the road team was allowing 21 or more points per game and those five teams went 0-5 ats. In other words, Indy will be bringing the sixth worse defense to ever go on the road in a Conference Championship game. There is one caveat to the Indy defense that deserves to be mentioned and that is they only allow 299 yards per game to teams who averaged 312 yards per game, which would seem to indicate their defense is above average. I think that is important but the most important number is points allowed. Indy, like Philadelphia, is content on allowing teams to rush the ball for five yards a pop, but avoiding allowing teams to gain 20 yards a pass play, figuring the teams will make some mistakes before they drive the length of the field. Unfortunately, for Indy, those teams aren't making enough mistakes and, unlike Philly, they are allowing those teams to score some points.
The 46-18-2 situation, along with the 17-2 subset, past history of defenses this bad failing miserably in this game and the fact Indy allows 4.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr isn't good news for Indy. NE is above average throwing the ball, averaging 6.0 yps against 5.8 yps and if Indy tries to stop the run, NE will be able to go over the top. Indy beat a banged up Denver team and then defeated a team who couldn't play defense. Let's remember Indy also didn't force KC to punt the ball and allowed KC to gain 408 yards at 6.8 yppl last week. I would play the under here but I think the number is close to where it should be and the weather appears to be better on Sunday. I strongly believe NE will cover this game and although my research indicates Indy will only score about 17 points in this game, it also seems tough to figure they can be held to only 17 points. If I believe NE covers and Indy may score more than 17 points, then the under doesn't really have a chance and for that reason I will stay away from the under and only lean towards it. NEW ENGLAND 26 INDIANAPOLIS 17
PHILADELPHIA -4 Carolina 36.5
This game gets a little tougher to sell Philly on because, from a fundamental standpoint, Carolina looks like they can stay in this game. In some regards, this is the exact same match-up that Carolina saw last week, in a defense that allows you to run on them and a pass defense that is just average. The big difference between the Rams and the Eagles is the Eagles, as we saw last week, don't allow you to score touchdowns once you get inside the 20 yard line. Many will say the Rams also have a better offense, making this game even easier for Carolina. I have been saying this all year long, said it last week as well, and that is the Rams were so overrated this year it wasn't even funny. The Rams offense lived off it's past and the numbers were so misleading, some of which I forgot to point out last week. The Rams passing offense was rated third in the league, in terms of yards per game, but that stat is so misleading it's not even funny. If you throw the ball over 60% of the time, you are going to gain yards in the passing game too. That's what the Rams did. In fact, when looking at yards per pass, there were nine other teams, who were better than them. Carolina passed for 6.3 yps while the Rams were at only 6.2 yps. People will point out the Rams scored 447 points during the regular season, tying for the second most points in the league. That's a farce too. The Rams scored only 42 touchdowns during the regular season (rushing and receiving), which was good for just the sixth best mark in the NFL. The point here is Carolina beat just an average team last week
For Philadelphia, well, they beat what I considered to be the second best team in the league and a team you could argue was the best team in the league from a stats perspective. Now, as we saw last week, stats don't win games, head coaching, etc. also wins games, which is probably why NE has 14 wins and GB only had 10 wins but look at some of these numbers. GB scored 50 touchdowns this year on offense from rushing and receiving (Carolina only scored 28). Those 50 touchdowns were the second best in the league, behind only Kansas City, who had 56 touchdowns. The Packers also allowed only 28 touchdowns from rushing and receiving (Carolina allowed 29). The difference between the two, for the Packers is +22 (50-28), which is by far and away the best number for any team in the playoffs. NE is at just +11, as is Tennessee, while Philadelphia and St. Louis were at +10. Carolina is at -1, scoring 28 touchdowns and allowing 29 touchdowns. Again, the point here is Carolina beat a very average team last week, while Philly certainly struggled, but against a high powered offense and a defense that played well during the course of the season. Carolina, while good and getting better each week, doesn't represent what GB had to offer. GB has a better quarterback, running back, wide receivers and offensive line. The Carolina defense was better, from a yards per play perspective, but not from a touchdowns allowed perspective, which makes it pretty close in terms of defense. For Philly, they scored 40 touchdowns this year and allowed 30 touchdowns, which makes their offense better and the defenses about even. Again, it's hard to make a case for a team allowing 4.5 ypr during the regular season. The major points here are the better defense (points per game) has been a solid predictor for the last 33 years and favors Philly in this game. Also, Carolina, while looking good last week, beat an average team, while Philly, who did not look good, was finding a way to beat a very, very good Packer team. That's not just my favoritism towards the Packers because the numbers I just showed you back that up. Unfortunately for GB, they couldn't find a way to win, while Philly did, which is what they always seem to be able to do, just like New England does. Final numbers in this game predict a 4.5 point Philly win (my power ratings) and a seven point Philly win (score predictor). I also think this game has a chance to be higher than "they" think. PHILADELPHIA 27 CAROLINA 20
BEST BETS
YTD 58-48-5 +10.20%
3% NEW ENGLAND -3
2% PHILADELPHIA -4
