NFL Conference Championship Notes

[Acebb]

NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
GREEN BAY (13-4) at SEATTLE (13-4)
January 18th 3:05 pm
Spread: SEATTLE -7½ ; Over/ Under 46½

-All-time, home favorites in Conference Championship Weekend are 34-25 (58% ATS)
-All-time, in Conference Championship Weekend, underdogs of 7 or more points are 13-17 (43% ATS)
-The past seven NFC Championship Games have been decided by 7 or fewer points

Green Bay:

· Rodgers has never been a dog of higher than +6 in his career.
· Rodgers this year: 41 TD’s vs. 5 INTs and 66% completions
· Postseason Career: Rodgers has thrown for 1,470 yards with 12 TDs, 4 INTs and a 108.2 QB rating on the road
· Rodgers 5-5 ATS in playoffs
· On the road this year: Packers are 4-4 SU and 2-5-1 ATS
· Green Bay 2-0 SU all time vs. Seattle in playoffs
· Packers 1 road win (ATS loss) since September.
· Last 2 trips to Seattle: Replacement ref game: 268 yards --189 yards passing 2014 season opener: 255 yards -- 175 passing
· GB 4-2 SU/3-2-1 ATS vs. playoff teams this year
· GB last 10 as an underdog: 1-9 SU/ATS
· Since 2006: Playoff road team who played previous game at home where they won but didn't cover is 10-2 ATS

Seattle:

· Seattle Seahawks are 25-2 at home, including the playoffs, over the past 3 seasons. Unbeaten at home in the last 8 postseason games
· On a dominant 47-18-1 ATS run
· Seattle 5-0 SU/ATS last 5 at home against NFC North
· Seattle held Gore (arguably better rusher than GB's Lacy) to 14 yards in last year’s NFC Championship game
· Wilson in the Postseason: Career playoff passer rating is 109 and he has a 73% completion percentage on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down in the playoffs for his career. Unreal.
· Wilson in the Post Season: 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS
· Last meeting vs. GB: Marshawn Lynch had 20 carries for 110 yards
· Seattle’s defense: #1 vs. the pass, #1 in total yards, and #1 in points allowed; held 7 straight opponents to 17 points or less
· Seattle 6-1 SU/5-2-1 ATS vs playoff teams this year

More coming...

 

[bobbyjones2]

Thanks for posting.

 

[Acebb]

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
INDIANAPOLIS (13-5) at NEW ENGLAND (13-4)
January 18th 6:40 PM
Spread: Patriots - 6½ ; Over/ Under 53½

In the 3 matchups with Luck at QB, the Patriots have won all 3 with an average score of 48-22. NE has not scored less than 42 points in any of those games (33 first downs and 503 yards of offense last meeting) and Luck has 8 INTs in those games.

Since 1990, in conference championship games featuring rematches from the regular season, the favorite went 17-13 (57% ATS)

Indianapolis:
· Andrew Luck: 32-19-2 ATS (63% ATS) overall in his career
· Luck has thrown for 1,703 yards in 5 career playoff games
· Colts are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS over their last eight games
· Colts 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS vs playoff teams this year
· Colts have lost six straight road games against AFC East (2-4 ATS)
· Colts 3-8 SU & ATS last 11 road playoff games
· Defensive Turnaround: Have held 4 of their last 5 opponents under 14 points


New England:

· Poor performers: 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 in the playoffs.
· Since 2006: playoff home teams who played previous game at home and won but didn't cover are 5-9 ATS (36%)
· Pats at home laying less than double digits: 16-5 ATS (2-2 ATS in playoffs)
· Brady has 8 career playoff game winning drives
· Brady era: Patriots have failed to cover in five straight conference championship games (3-5 ATS under Belichick), and are 1-3 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in the AFC title game
· Brady era: Against Indy, Patriots have won 3 of the previous 4 postseason meetings and are 3-1 ATS in those games
· Patriots are 17-4 ATS the past 21 times when laying single-digits at home
· Patriots went 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS vs playoff teams this year
· Patriots have won 10 straight (7-3 ATS) home games against AFC South
· 17-1 SU last 18 home games (12-6 ATS)

 

[Acebb]

Some other random info:



· Patriots have won seven games this season by at least 22 points

· Last 4 seasons: Seattle in December or later on 19-4-1 ATS run

· Seattle rushed for 207 yards in meeting against Green Bay earlier this season

· Packers overall December or later: 24-13-2 ATS

· GB on the road this year outscored by an average of 17 ppg

· Seattle was outgained by Carolina (362-348)

 

[Acebb]

Other trends and notes:

· 24[SUP]th[/SUP] Time Rodgers has been an underdog in his career: 7-16 SU/11-11-1 ATS

· Favorites of between 7-9.5 points are 15-6 ATS in conference championships since 1970.

· Remember, last year both favorites (Seattle and Denver) covered. Be careful assuming 1 dog will cover today.

· The underdog in the NFC Championship Game is 9-5 ATS in the last 14.

· The home team has won seven of the last eight AFC Championship Games going 6-2 ATS.

· Game specific ATS system: Play on any playoff road underdog (Colts) that was on the road in its previous game (36-23), 61% ATS since 2000

· Teams arriving to the championship game that score 34 or more points in divisional round (Pats) are 17-18 SU and 12-23 ATS on Conference Championship Sunday


Seattle has moved to -8, I think we may seen Green Bay quickly become a moderately public underdog.

 

[BROOMSKI]

i got seattle at -9 and ne at 8

 

[Acebb]

^ Wow Broomski.

My local has Seattle -8½ & Pats -6½

 

[BROOMSKI]

2 tough games.....

 

[SmokeyWins]

yes..... have to take both home favs small... nothing huge today

 

[Acebb]

I can't be the only one wondering if Seattle practiced this week. What a bad performance.

I don't know who is bombing these lines, but if it is the same syndicate/touts who took Denver last week, they're going to be homeless tomorrow.