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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PhillyGodFather


5% Philadelphia Eagles Over 9 wins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

NFL Win Totals


Cardinals Under 8.5
Saints Under 8.5
Titans Over 5.5
Raiders Over 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST Futures


$1,500 on Indianapolis to win MORE than 10.5 games
$1,500 on San Francisco to win LESS than 7.5 games


$1,500 on Chicago to win LESS than 7 games
$1,250 on Pittsburgh to win MORE than 8.5 games
$1,250 on NY Jets to win LESS than 7.5 games
$1,000 on Tennessee to win LESS than 5.5 games
$750 on Pittsburgh to win the AFC North at +235
$500 on New Orleans to win the NFC South at +210
$500 on Philadelphia to win NFC East at +175
$500 on Indianapolis to win AFC Champ at +400
$375 on Green Bay to win NFC Champ at +345


$350 on Indianapolis to win SB at 9/1
$325 on Green Bay to win SB at 6/1
$300 on Seattle to win SB at 9/2
$275 on Denver to win SB at 13/1
$250 on Pittsburgh to win SB at 29/1
$200 on New England to win SB at 10/1
$100 on Philadelphia to win SB at 25/1
$75 on Baltimore to win SB at 22/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers


Win Total Pick: Michigan OVER 7.5
Win Total Pick: Nebraska OVER 8
Win Total Pick: Iowa Under 7.5
Win Total Pick: Tennessee OVER 7
Win Total Pick: Arkansas UNDER 8.5
Win Total Pick: Mississippi OVER 8.5
Win Total Pick: UGA OVER 9
Win Total Pick: UK UNDER 6
Win Total Pick: South Carolina UNDER 7
Win Total Pick: Vanderbilt OVER 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux


NFL Season Win Bets
10 units on Kansas City Over 8.5 (-140)


NFL Divison Picks
5 units on Chiefs Win AFC West (+380)


Early Week 1 Picks
5 units - Kansas City +7.5 / Buffalo +8.5 (6 Point Teaser)
5 units - Kansas City +7.5 / Minnesota +9 (6 Point Teaser)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping Super Bowl 50

The NFL is quickly becoming a year-round sport and some believe it is already. The preseason kicks off in August while the regular season starts in early September as 32 teams will look to earn a trip to Super Bowl 50 next February at Levi’s Stadium from Santa Clara, California.

With pro football being in the spotlight, bettors also have options 12 months out of the year.

A Sportsbook is offering win totals, future odds and Week 1 odds for the upcoming season which is similar to many other outfits.

Another prop that they’re offering is their Super Bowl Possible Matchups.

Senior Odds consultant Matt James offers up the insight behind this prop. “We’ve been offering this wager for a few years and it continues to gain popularity. Similar to our future odds, most bettors are vesting heavily in Seattle to capture the NFC while the Colts have upstaged the Patriots in the AFC.”

Seattle will be trying to become the first to make it to the Super Bowl three years in a row which has never been done in the salary cap era.

The only team to accomplish this feat was the Buffalo Bills, who made four consecutive appearances from 1991 to 1994.

The Seahawks have gone 12-4 and 13-3 the last two seasons and the oddsmakers believe they’ll be in that neighborhood again. The season win total on Seattle is set at 11 (Over -125).

As far as winning the division, the Seahawks have been installed as -325 favorites (Bet $100 to win $31) to win the NFC West.

According to a Sportsbook, the team Seattle could meet in Super Bowl 50 is Indianapolis.

Seahawks vs. Colts 15/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,500)
Seahawks vs. Patriots 18/1
Seahawks vs. Broncos 22/1
Seahawks vs. Ravens 50/1
Seahawks vs. Steelers 65/1
Seahawks vs. Bengals 75/1
Seahawks vs. Bills 75/1
Seahawks vs. Chiefs 75/1
Seahawks vs. Dolphins 75/1
Seahawks vs. Texans 85/1
Seahawks vs. Chargers 85/1
Seahawks vs. Jets 105/1
Seahawks vs. Browns 170/1
Seahawks vs. Raiders 210/1
Seahawks vs. Jaguars 275/1
Seahawks vs. Titans 400/1

Listed below are the rest of available odds for potential Super Bowl L matchups.

Seahawks vs. Colts 15/1
Packers vs. Colts 18/1
Seahawks vs. Patriots 18/1
Packers vs. Patriots 20/1
Seahawks vs. Broncos 22/1
Packers vs. Broncos 25/1
Cowboys vs. Colts 30/1
Cowboys vs. Patriots 35/1
Cowboys vs. Broncos 44/1
Seahawks vs. Ravens 50/1
Eagles vs. Colts 55/1
Packers vs. Ravens 55/1
Eagles vs. Patriots 65/1
Seahawks vs. Steelers 65/1
Packers vs. Steelers 70/1
Eagles vs. Broncos 75/1
Seahawks vs. Bengals 75/1
Seahawks vs. Bills 75/1
Seahawks vs. Chiefs 75/1
Seahawks vs. Dolphins 75/1
Cardinals vs. Colts 80/1
Giants vs. Colts 80/1
Packers vs. Bills 80/1
Packers vs. Chiefs 80/1
Packers vs. Dolphins 80/1
Packers vs. Bengals 85/1
Seahawks vs. Chargers 85/1
Seahawks vs. Texans 85/1
Cardinals vs. Patriots 90/1
Falcons vs. Colts 90/1
Giants vs. Patriots 90/1
Lions vs. Colts 90/1
Packers vs. Chargers 90/1
Packers vs. Texans 90/1
Panthers vs. Colts 90/1
Rams vs. Colts 90/1
Cowboys vs. Ravens 95/1
Falcons vs. Patriots 100/1
Lions vs. Patriots 100/1
Panthers vs. Patriots 100/1
Rams vs. Patriots 100/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds for the 2015 St. Louis Rams NFL Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews

This my 64th and final story previewing each team's home and road schedules for the coming NFL season. Only three weeks until the Steelers and Patriots kick things off on Sept. 10 in Foxboro.

I was one of those on the Rams' bandwagon last season as a potential wild-card team but jumped off immediately once Sam Bradford suffered (another) season-ending ACL injury in the preseason. The Rams don't have to worry about the brittle Bradford any longer as they dealt him to Philadelphia for Nick Foles. It's not like Foles has been a picture of health in his three-year career, however. But the Rams are all-in with him for now as they already have signed Foles to a two-year extension through 2017 worth around $24 million. The final year of the contract can void based on performance. If Foles is pretty good, then getting him at $12 million a season is a great deal. The Rams were 6-10 last year and ended 2014 having played 25 consecutive games without Bradford. Austin Davis, who's competing with Case Keenum for the backup job, shared starting duties with Shawn Hill last season.

I still worry about the Rams' receivers as they are one of the worst groups in the NFL. I'm definitely interested to see how rookie running back Todd Gurley fares in the NFL, but he's not likely to be ready to start the season off his serious injury suffered last year at Georgia. Gurley has been compared to a young Adrian Peterson.

The defense should be fantastic, especially the front four. Anything less than a 9-7 record probably means the end of Jeff Fisher's tenure as head coach. Then you have the whole potential move to Los Angeles hanging over the franchise. But I think it can finish second in the West with the 49ers taking a huge step back and the Cardinals having overachieved in 2014.

The Rams were 3-5 on the road last season, 4-4 against the spread and 3-5 "over/under." Their 2015 road schedule ranks as the third-toughest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .582. It's the second-hardest in the NFC West behind Seattle.

Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are five road games against 2014 playoff teams.

Sept. 20 -- at Redskins (+2): This could be a huge letdown game for St. Louis if it can somehow upset visiting Seattle in Week 1. Washington hosts Miami to start the season. I have to mention the RGIII draft pick trade between the Rams and Redskins as it stocked St. Louis with some good young players with all those picks in received in return. The Rams' final win of last year was 24-0 in Washington in Week 14. It was the team's second straight shutout, which the franchise hadn't done since 1945. Rams win this. Key trend: Rams 6-4 ATS in past 10 as road favorite.

Oct. 4 -- at Cardinals (-3.5): St. Louis off a Week 3 home game vs. Pittsburgh, while Arizona is home to San Francisco the previous Sunday. The Rams lost 31-14 at the Cardinals in Week 10 last season. St. Louis led 14-10 entering the fourth and had knocked out Cards starting QB Carson Palmer with what would be a season-ending injury. But Rams QB Davis had a pick and fumble both returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Rams win this. Key trend: Rams 3-7 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.

Oct. 11 -- at Packers (-5.5): This is ahead of the Rams' bye week. Green Bay is off a trip to San Francisco in Week 4. St. Louis has lost four straight in series, last in 2012. All four losses have been by double digits. Make it five. Key trend: Rams 5-5 ATS in past 10 before a bye (any location).

Nov. 8 -- at Vikings (pick'em): St. Louis is off a home game vs. San Francisco, while Minnesota is in Chicago in Week 8. I think this game could be important for a second wild-card spot as many like the Vikings as a team on the rise with St. Louis. The Rams opened last season at home vs. the Vikings and were pounded 34-6. St. Louis starting QB Hill lasted only a half before getting injured. He was replaced by Davis. Rams lose this. Key trend: Rams 5-5 ATS in past 10 at NFC North teams.

Nov. 22 -- at Ravens (-3.5): St. Louis off a home game vs. Chicago, while Baltimore is home to Jacksonville in Week 10. Rams lost last meeting 37-7 in 2011. They lose this one. Key trend: Rams 8-2 ATS in past 10 at AFC teams.

Nov. 29 -- at Bengals (-2.5): Probably the final chance of an outdoor winter-type game for St. Louis. Cincinnati comes off a trip to Arizona in Week 11. Rams have lost two straight in series, last in 2011. Make it three. Key trend: Rams 5-5 ATS past 10 as road dog of 2.5 points or fewer.

Dec. 27 -- at Seahawks (-6.5): Rams off a three-game homestand, capped by a Week 15 Thursday game vs. Tampa Bay that could be the finale in the city of St. Louis. Seattle is home to Cleveland the previous Sunday. Rams closed last season with a 20-6 loss in Seattle. St. Louis had three fourth-quarter turnovers. The Rams finished with just 42 yards rushing and no play longer than 20 yards. They lose this one. Key trend: Rams 3-7 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.

Jan. 3 -- at 49ers (TBA): Again, no Week 17 line with too many potential intangibles on the final Sunday. San Francisco is off a Week 16 trip to Detroit. St. Louis won 13-10 at the Niners in Week 9 last season thanks to a Colin Kaepernick goal-line fumble with two seconds left. The Rams had eight sacks of Kaepernick to offset just 193 total yards on offense. I expect the Niners to stink this season and this to possibly matter for the Rams, so let's say they win it. Key trend: Rams 4-6 ATS in past 10 at 49ers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds for the 2015 Oakland Raiders NFL Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews

If I'm a Raiders fan, I'm pretty excited about where this franchise is going. Well, that is unless I live in Oakland because there's just about no chance that the Raiders will be there next season. The team is going to end up in Los Angeles but perhaps could play a couple of seasons in San Antonio until a new stadium is built in L.A. There's also talk that if the Chargers join the Raiders in a Los Angeles stadium then one of those teams would have to switch conferences and head to the NFC West. Be interesting to see which NFC team would move over. I assume the league wouldn't want Oakland and San Francisco in the same division simply for TV reasons. Pro Football Talk is reporting that the most likely move is the Raiders moving to the NFC West and the Rams (who also want to move to L.A.) or Cardinals moving to the AFC West.

From a player perspective, I like second-year quarterback David Carr, and this year's first-round pick, Alabama receiver Amari Cooper, is the +600 third-favorite behind Tampa's Jameis Winston and San Diego's Melvin Gordon to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The defense is still pretty weak, but last year's top pick, linebacker Khalil Mack, is the real deal.

The Raiders aren't going to finish with their first winning record since 2002 this season, but you can finally see a light at the end of the tunnel. Oakland was 0-8 on the road last season. (Jaguars only other team without an away win), 4-4 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." Its 2015 road schedule ranks right in the middle as the 16th-toughest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .516. It's tied with Denver for the easiest in the AFC West.

Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are three road games against 2014 playoff teams.

Sept. 27 -- at Browns (-4.5): First 1 p.m.. ET start for Oakland in 2015. Raiders are off a home game vs. Baltimore in Week 2, while Cleveland is home to Tennessee the previous Sunday. Raiders have lost three of past four vs. Browns, including 23-13 in Ohio in Week 8 last year. That was the Raiders' 16th straight loss in the Eastern time zone. Carr was 34-for-54 for 328 yards and a touchdown. Raiders only trailed 9-6 entering the fourth and outgained the Browns by 81 yards but had three turnovers. Raiders lose this. Key trend: Raiders 0-10 SU (7-3 ATS) in past 10 September road games as a dog of at least 4 points.

Oct. 4 -- at Bears (-6): Oakland might decide to stay somewhere in the Midwest with a second straight 1 p.m. ET game. Chicago is off a trip to Seattle in Week 3. Frankly, I think the Raiders are in better shape going forward from a talent standpoint than the Bears are. Chicago would have jumped on Cooper had he been there at No. 7 overall in this year's draft but instead had to settle for West Virginia's Kevin White -- Raiders considered him -- and he may now miss the season. Oakland won last meeting in 2011 but hasn't been to Chicago since 2003. Raiders lose this. Key trend: Raiders 1-5 ATS all-time at NFC North teams.

Oct. 25 -- at Chargers (-8): The L.A. Bowl! Oakland is off its bye week, while San Diego is in Green Bay in Week 6. Oakland lost 13-6 in San Diego in Week 11 last year, the Raiders' 16th straight defeat overall, but they would end it the following week. Carr was 16-for-34 for 172 yards. Oakland had only 233 total yards and nine first downs. Raiders lose this. Key trend: Raiders 5-4 ATS in nine games at San Diego as a dog of at least 7.5 points (1-8 SU).

Nov. 8 -- at Steelers (-9.5): Another 1 p.m. ET start for the Raiders, who are off a home game vs. the Jets in Week 8. Pittsburgh is home to Cincinnati the previous Sunday. Raiders have lost four of past five in series, last in 2013. They fall again. Key trend: Raiders 2-8 ATS in past 10 at AFC North teams.

Nov. 22 -- at Lions (-8.5): This will be Oakland's only indoor game all season. Raiders are off a home game vs. Minnesota, while Detroit is off a trip to Green Bay in Week 10 and thus could be a bit flat. Raiders have lost three straight in series, last in 2011. Make it four. Key trend: Raiders 6-4 ATS in past 10 as a road dog of at least 8 points.

Nov. 29 -- at Titans (-2): Tennessee has extra time to prepare as it is in Jacksonville on Thursday in Week 11. Quite clearly this and the Cleveland games are the two best chances for the Raiders to avoid another winless road season. They have lost three straight to Tennessee, last in 2013. I say streak ends. Key trend: Raiders 5-5 ATS in past 10 at AFC South teams.

Dec. 13 -- at Broncos (-10.5): Oakland is home to Kansas City in Week 13, while Denver is in San Diego the previous Sunday. Raiders have lost seven straight in series. They were beaten 47-14 in Denver to close last season. Carr was 18-for-36 for 158 yards, a TD and a pick. Raiders had only 199 total yards. Score a bit misleading as it was only 27-14 with about six minutes left in the third. Oakland loses this. Key trend: Raiders 4-4 ATS all-time as a dog of at least 10 points in Denver.

Jan. 3 -- at Chiefs (TBA): No Week 17 line with too many potential intangibles on the final day of the regular season. If Raiders do switch conferences, it will mean the end of this good rivalry. Oakland is off perhaps its last home game in the city in Week 16 against the Chargers on a Thursday night. Chiefs are home to Cleveland the previous Sunday. Oakland lost 31-13 in K.C. in Week 15 last year. It was only 10-6 early in the third quarter. Carr was 27-for-56 for 222 yards, throwing a TD pass in the final minute. But he was sacked four times and fumbled a snap that led to a Kansas City touchdown. Raiders lose this to finish 1-7 on road. Key trend: Raiders 7-3 ATS in past 10 as a dog in series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds for the 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews

You know how all these sites (ESPN, MMQB, NFL.com, etc.), put out most improved lists each offseason? I urge you to not take those as gospel. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on everyone's most improved list last season after adding a ton of free agents as well as Coach Lovie Smith. So of course the Bucs finished 2-14 and got the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

That said, I don't think the Bucs were that bad and that there is some big-time talent on this team. I'd take the receiving duo of Vincent Jackson and rising star Mike Evans over most other teams' best two. The defense should be excellent and has one of the NFL's best tackles in Gerald McCoy and linebackers in Lavonte David, who just got a big new extension. Yes, there are major questions on the offensive line and at running back, although everyone who follows the Bucs daily has been raving that Doug Martin looks like his 2012 "Muscle Hamster" days when he had one of the best rookie seasons of any running back ever.

But let's not kid ourselves. This all comes down to quarterback Jameis Winston. To little surprise, he is the +550 favorite at 5Dimes to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Not sure that's a smart bet as Winston is going to struggle at times behind that line and with interceptions -- the latter was a major problem last season at Florida State. He won't be as bad as Blake Bortles was as a rookie but won't be Andrew Luck, either. Winston didn't look good at all in his preseason debut Saturday against the Vikings. Maybe Bucs fans should expect something like how the other Florida NFL QB performed in his rookie season, Miami's Ryan Tannehill.

I don't do guarantees, but it's a sure thing that Tampa won't win two games again -- and it won't be fewer than that. The Bucs were 2-6 on the road last season (were only winless home team), 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." Their 2015 road schedule ranks as the 11th-easiest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .473. It's tied for the hardest in the NFC South with New Orleans.

Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are only two road games against 2014 playoff teams.

Sept. 20 -- at Saints (-6.5): Tampa Bay is off what should be a Week 1 home win over Tennessee. New Orleans is in Arizona on the first Sunday of the season. Tampa lost 37-31 in overtime at New Orleans in Week 5 last season. The Bucs really should have won but blew a 31-20 fourth-quarter lead. The Bucs had 15 penalties for 113 yards, including a crucial one on cornerback Jonathan Banks on third down in overtime when the Saints would have had to punt. Tampa Bay quarterback Mike Glennon was 19-for-32 for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson had eight catches for 144 yards. Bucs lose this. Key trend: Bucs 6-4 ATS in past 10 as road dog of at least 6 points in series.

Sept. 27 -- at Texans (-6.5): Houston is off a Week 2 trip to Carolina. This will be a matchup of No. 1 overall picks if Houston defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is healthy, and that's no sure thing. When is the last time a No. 1 overall defensive player sacked a No. 1 overall QB? Hmmm. These teams have only played three times and Bucs have lost past two. Make it three. Key trend: Bucs 0-6 ATS all-time at AFC South teams.

Oct. 25 -- at Redskins (-4): Tampa Bay comes off its bye week, while Washington is at the Jets in Week 6. Of course a matchup of Heisman winners here in Winston and Robert Griffin III -- if RGII is healthy at this point, and that's no sure thing. Tampa's final win of 2014 was 27-7 at Washington in Week 11. Evans caught seven passes for 209 yards and two scores in his biggest game as a rookie Josh McCown (now with Browns) started at QB. Bucs win this. Key trend: Bucs 6-4 ATS in past 10 after a bye (any location).

Nov. 1 -- at Falcons (-5.5): Atlanta is off a Week 7 trip to Tennessee. Easily Tampa Bay's worst game of last year was a 56-14 embarrassment on Thursday at the Georgia Dome in Week 3 last year. The Bucs were down 35-0 before even getting a first down and 56-0 entering the fourth. Against the Falcons reserves, Tampa scored two meaningless touchdowns to avoid the worst loss in franchise history. McCown was awful before leaving with a thumb injury. Bucs lose this. Key trend: Bucs 5-5 ATS in past 10 as a road dog of at least 5 points in series (lost six straight SU).

Nov. 22 -- at Eagles (-8.5): Could be another matchup of Heisman winners and No. 1 overall picks here in Winston and Philly QB Sam Bradford. If Bradford is healthy by this point, and that's no sure thing (noticing a trend?). Bucs have lost three straight in series, last in 2013. Make it four. Key trend: Bus 4-6 ATS in past 10 at NFC East teams.

Nov. 29 -- at Colts (-9.5): Another all-No. 1 overall pick matchup, this time against Luck. And I think he will be healthy. Indianapolis is off a trip to Atlanta in Week 11. Bucs won last meeting 24-17 in 2011, but Luck was at Stanford then and Winston a senior in high school. Bucs lose this. Key trend: Bucs 1-9 SU (7-3 ATS) in past 10 as road dog of at least 9 points.

Dec. 17 -- at Rams (-8): Thursday night game and Tampa's last indoors. Bucs are off a home game vs. New Orleans in Week 14, while St. Louis is home to Detroit the previous Sunday. It's the Rams' home finale -- maybe ever there? Bucs lost at home 19-17 to Rams in Week 2 last year on a Greg Zuerlein field goal with 38 seconds left. Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards and McCown had two short touchdown runs for the Bucs. The game ended with the Bucs at the St. Louis 32, but the final eight seconds had to be run off because Evans was injured. Bucs lose this. Key trend: Bucs 4-6 ATS in past 10 at NFC West teams.

Jan. 3 -- at Panthers (TBA): Again, no Week 17 lines with too many potential intangibles. Might the Panthers need win here for a third straight NFC South title? Tampa off a Week 16 game at home vs. Chicago, while Carolina is in Atlanta the previous Sunday. Yet another Heisman/No. 1 overall pick matchup with Winston and Cam Newton. That should be a good rivalry going forward. The Bucs were swept last year by the Panthers but never faced Newton -- it was Derek Anderson both times. The game in Charlotte was 19-17 for Carolina in Week 15. McCown had a pick and two lost fumbles. Bucs lose this. Key trend: Bucs 5-5 ATS in past 10 as a dog in series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds for the 2015 Tennessee Titans NFL Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews

Some of the sportsbooks have odds out on whether any team will join the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only teams to finish a regular season at 0-16. First off, I think that's highly unlikely, but I will say that Tennessee is probably the least-talented club in the NFL right now, and if they played in a tougher division -- i.e. didn't get to face Jacksonville twice a year -- then I'd say the Titans have a shot. By the way, that any team will go 0-16 is +3300.

I always take those training camp reports from beat writers with a grain of salt because they have such limited access these days, and many are afraid to rip their teams because then they might get no access. But by all accounts, 2014 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota has looked very good. Perhaps that just means the Titans stink on defense as Mariota no doubt will have steep learning curve coming out of that no-huddle, all-shotgun, up-tempo offense at Oregon. But I root for the guy. He was to make his NFL debut on Friday night in Atlanta in the preseason opener.

Other than Mariota? Nothing to see here. I do this for a living and I'm not sure I could name more than 10 Titans off the top of my head. The Titans were 1-7 on the road last season (same as home record), 2-6 against the spread and 3-5 "over/under." Their 2015 road schedule ranks as the fifth-easiest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .430. That's the easiest in the AFC South.

Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are only two road games against 2014 playoff teams.

Sept. 13 -- at Buccaneers (-2.5): This game would get the lowest ratings of any in Week 1 and be totally ignored if not for a matchup between Mariota and No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston. Now it's must-see TV and probably will be shown in many more markets than it normally would. Mariota and Winston will be compared the rest of their careers. First meeting since 2011. Titans lose this. Key trend: Titans 4-6 ATS in past 10 as a road dog of 2.5 points or fewer.

Sept. 20 -- at Browns (-4.5): Cleveland is off a Week 1 game at the Jets. Too bad Josh McCown will be the Browns' starting QB here, barring an injury against New York, as it would be fun to see Mariota face another Heisman winner in Johnny Manziel. Otherwise this game is a dog, and I mean the kind with fleas. Titans lost 29-28 at home to Browns in Week 5 last year. Tennessee led 28-10 in the third quarter and 28-13 entering the fourth. Jake Locker was the Titans' starting QB that day but left hurt (nothing new with him). Titans pull the upset here. Key trend: Titans 5-5 ATS in past 10 at AFC North teams.

Nov. 1 -- at Texans (-7): This is the longest break between road games in the NFL as the Titans have four home games and a bye following that trip to Cleveland. Tennessee comes off a Week 7 game vs. Atlanta. Houston is in Miami the previous Sunday and ahead of its bye. Titans lost 45-21 in Houston in Week 13 last season, the most points they allowed all year. Zach Mettenberger started but left injured. Locker replaced him and threw two picks. Kendall Wright had seven catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. Titans lose this. Key trend: Titans 4-4 ATS in eight games at Houston as a dog.

Nov. 8 -- at Saints (-7): New Orleans is off a Week 8 home game against the Giants. This could be Mariota's first true road game if the retractable roof in Houston is open the week before. A first indoor game certainly can matter with noise. Titans have won four of past five meetings but lost last in 2011. They lose here too. Key trend: Titans 6-3-1 ATS in past 10 at all NFC teams.

Nov. 19 -- at Jaguars (-1.5): Thursday night game. And it will be the lowest-rated Thursday game of the year. Tennessee off a Week 10 home game vs. Carolina, while Jacksonville is in Baltimore the previous Sunday. Titans lost 21-13 on a Thursday in Week 16 at Jacksonville last year. I remember that game, having to preview it and then watch. Ugh. Whitehurst threw for 285 yards and a score. Titans lose this. Key trend: Titans 5-5 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.

Dec. 13 -- at Jets (-4): Tennessee off a Week 13 game against Jacksonville, while New York is at the Giants the previous Sunday. Titans lost 16-11 at home to Jets in Week 15 last year in a game that featured a nice brawl. The Titans got to the Jets 22 with 2 minutes left before turning it over on downs with a sack and three incompletions by Whitehurst. Titans lose this. Key trend: Titans 6-4 ATS in past 10 at AFC East teams.

Dec. 20 -- at Patriots (-10.5): This is New England's home finale, and the Pats are off a Week 14 trip to Houston. With two division games to follow, I could see them sleepwalking through this one. Titans have lost five straight in series, last in 2012. Make it six. Key trend: Titans have lost six straight (1-5 ATS) as road dog of at least 10 points.

Jan. 3 -- at Colts (TBA): No line here with too many intangibles, and indeed the Colts might have nothing to play for. I fully expect them to have the AFC South wrapped up by now; it might just depend on a top-two seed in the conference whether the Colts care. How great would it be if the Titans were 0-15 and Indy sat Andrew Luck and others? Tennessee is off its home finale vs. Houston, while Indy is in Miami in Week 16. Titans lost 41-17 in Indianapolis in Week 4 last year, their seventh straight loss in the series. Make it eight if Colts care. Key trend: Titans 3-7 ATS in past 10 at Colts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds for the 2015 Chicago Bears NFL Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews

The Chicago Bears might have been worst-coached team in the NFL last season. Head coach Marc Trestman ran the offense and generally forgot that you were allowed to run the ball. Despite having some of the best skill position talent in the NFL, the Bears were just 23rd in scoring. Jay Cutler was, well, Jay Cutler. Sometimes good, sometimes bad and always surly. The defensive coordinator last year was Mel Tucker, who probably belongs on the high school coaching level. The Bears added several additions to that defense in 2014, and it didn't matter as Chicago ranked 30th in total defense and 31st in scoring.

So after a last-place finish and yet another year watching the playoffs, ownership cleaned house. Will the Bears be better this season? I do think a little bit at a minimum because now they have a very well-respected coaching staff in top guy John Fox, offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio; those latter two were both up for the 49ers' head coaching job and Gase nearly took it. If the Bears' offense rebounds this year under the former Broncos' OC, Gase will be one-and-done in Chicago. My concern with Fangio's defense is that he's switching to a 3-4, and the Bears simply don't have the personnel for that as they have been a 4-3 team forever. It will be an interesting team to watch. Chicago will win a few games it shouldn't but also lose a few it shouldn't.

The Bears were 3-5 on the road last season (which was better than their home record), 4-4 against the spread and 6-2 "over/under." Their 2015 road schedule ranks as the 12th-toughest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .531. That's tied with Minnesota for the hardest in the NFC North.

Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are three road games against 2014 playoff teams.

Sept. 27 -- at Seattle (-9): Chicago could well be 0-2 entering this game as the Bears open at home against Green Bay and then Arizona, two playoff teams from last year. The Seahawks might be a tad flat as they come off a huge Sunday night game in Green Bay. First Bears trip to Pacific Northwest since 2009. They lose this, flat Hawks or not. Key trend: Bears 6-4 ATS in past 10 as a road dog of at least 9 points.

Oct. 11 -- at Chiefs (-4): Chicago is off a Week 4 home game vs. Oakland, while Kansas City is in Cincinnati the previous Sunday. Could argue the best two running backs in the NFL are in this one when you factor in receiving. Of course, I'm talking about Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles. It's Chicago's first trip to K.C. in 12 years. Bears lose this. Key trend: Bears 6-3-1 ATS in past 10 at AFC West teams.

Oct. 18 -- at Lions (-5): Detroit is off a Week 5 home game vs. Arizona. The Bears started their season-ending five-game losing streak last season with a 34-17 Thanksgiving loss in Detroit. Cutler looked great in the first quarter, throwing two TD passes to Alshon Jeffery for a 14-3 lead, but then he reverted to usual Cutler form. He finished 31-for-48 for 280 yards, two TDs and two picks. Remember I said Trestman never ran the ball? Bears had all of eight rushing attempts in the game. Bears lose this. Key trend: Bears 4-6 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.

Nov. 9 -- at Chargers (-4): Monday night game. Chicago is off a Week 8 home game vs. Minnesota, while San Diego is in Baltimore the previous Sunday and ahead of its bye week. Bears have won five of the past six meetings, last in 2011. They don't here. Key trend: Bears 6-4 ATS in past 10 November road games as at least a 4-point dog.

Nov. 15 -- at Rams (-4.5): Cubs-Cardinals is one of the great MLB rivalries, but a Chicago-St. Louis football rivalry never got going. Of course, they don't play every year. And this could be the Bears' final trip to their southern neighbors. Obviously a short week for Bears, while St. Louis is in Minnesota in Week 9. First meeting since a Rams 42-21 home win in November 2013. Bears lose this. Key trend: Bears 5-5 ATS in past 10 at NFC West teams.

Nov. 26 -- at Packers (-7.5): Thanksgiving night game. Incredibly hard short turnaround for Chicago considering it has to host Denver in Week 11. Green Bay is in Minnesota the previous Sunday. The Packers completed the easy season sweep of Chicago last season with a 55-14 home win in Week 10. It was 42-0 at halftime. -- Green Bay could have scored 70 if it wanted to. That was the most points Chicago had ever allowed in a half. Tucker should have been fired the next day. Cutler had two first-half picks. Brandon Marshall (now with Jets) caught eight balls for 112 yards and a TD, pretty much all in garbage time. Bears lose this on the night Packers honor Brett Favre. Key trend: Bears 6-4 ATS in past 10 as road dog of at least 7 points in series.

Dec. 20 -- at Vikings (-2.5): Chicago off a home game vs. Washington, while Minnesota has extra time to prepare as it's in Arizona on a Thursday in Week 14. Last Bears-Vikings outdoor game in Minnesota, which is a shame. The Trestman era ended in Week 17 last year with a 13-9 loss in Minneapolis. Cutler returned from a one-game benching with 172 yards on 23-for-36 passing. Forte's eight receptions gave him an NFL-running-back-record 102 catches for the season. Bears lose this. Key trend: Bears 1-9 SU (4-6 ATS) in past 10 as road dog in series.

Dec. 27 -- at Buccaneers (+1.5): After this, Bears finish at home vs. Detroit. Tampa has extra time to heal up as it's in St. Louis on Thursday in Week 15. There will probably be more Bears fans in the stands this time of year in Florida. Chicago beat visiting Tampa 21-13 in Week 12 last season in Bucs coach Lovie Smith's return to the Windy City. That would be the Bears' final win of the season. Forte rushed for two scores, and the Chicago defense forced four turnovers. Bears win this to avoid 0-8 on road. Key trend: Bears 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) in past 10 as road favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds for the 2015 Cleveland Browns NFL Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews

Are you like me and simply can't wait to see the quarterback battle in Cleveland between Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown? I am being sarcastic, although I suppose that makes the Browns one of the more interesting teams of the preseason. They open Thursday night at home against Washington.

As if the Browns weren't dysfunctional enough, you hear reports that the team has considered signing Ray Rice. It's like the club doesn't know what good public relations is, although I do believe it's time for Rice to get a second chance somewhere. Browns running backs coach Wilbert Montgomery was Rice's position coach with the Baltimore Ravens from 2008-2013. The Browns avoided disaster early this week when Joe Thomas suffered a knee injury on Monday, but it's nothing serious. Most consider him the best offensive tackle in football -- the O-Line is actually quite good in Cleveland. It's just the rest of the offense stinks. Thomas has never missed a snap for Cleveland in a regular-season game even though he has had three MCL tears and two high-ankle sprains in his career.

The Browns were 3-5 on the road last season, a solid 5-2-1 against the spread and 3-5 "over/under." Their 2015 road schedule ranks as the fifth-toughest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .559. It's the second-hardest in the AFC North behind Pittsburgh.

Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are five road games against 2014 playoff teams. I think it's fair to say the Browns will miss the playoffs for a 13th straight season.

Sept. 13 -- at Jets (-3): This line was taken down briefly yesterday with the news that Jets starting quarterback Geno Smith would miss 6-10 weeks with a broken jaw suffered when he was sucker-punched by a teammate. So maybe the Jets are the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL, not the Browns. I'm not sure if it's a good break or bad one that Cleveland won't face the turnover-prone Smith but instead decent veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith reportedly had looked great in camp. Browns have lost two straight in series, last in 2013. They do here -- this looks to really be the Browns' only good chance for a 2015 road win. Key trend: Browns 6-4 ATS in past 10 at AFC East teams.

Oct. 4 -- at Chargers (-6): Cleveland is off a Week 3 home game vs. Oakland, while San Diego is in Minnesota the previous Sunday. You heard a few rumors that the Browns were interested in trading for the Chargers' Philip Rivers this offseason, but nothing ever materialized. Cleveland won last meeting, an ugly 7-6 at home in 2012. Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 7-2-1 ATS in past 10 at AFC West teams.

Oct. 11 -- at Ravens (-7): Baltimore is off a Week 4 Thursday night game in Pittsburgh. Cleveland ended last season on a five-game losing streak, and the finale of that was Week 17 in Baltimore, a 20-10 defeat. Cleveland led 10-3 entering the fourth quarter but then could do nothing offensively. The Browns started rookie QB Connor Shaw in the game with Manziel and Brian Hoyer (now with Texans) injured. Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 1-8 SU as a dog of at least 7 points in series but 7-2 ATS.

Oct. 25 -- at Rams (-6): Cleveland off a Week 6 home game vs. Denver, while St. Louis is off its bye week. Cleveland tried to trade for Rams QB Nick Foles while he was still with Philadelphia. At the start of the 2013 season, Cleveland offered Philly receiver Josh Gordon (suspended for the 2015 season) for Foles. Eagles said no. First meeting since 2011. Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 4-4 ATS at NFC West teams.

Nov. 5 -- at Bengals (-6.5): Thursday night game. Cleveland off a home game vs. Arizona in Week 8, while Cincinnati is at Pittsburgh the previous Sunday. The Browns dominated the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 10 last season, 24-3. It was Cleveland's season-high third straight win and snapped its streak of 17 straight losses to division opponents on the road. The Browns held the Bengals to 165 total yards and forced four turnovers. Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 6-3-1 ATS in past 10 as road dog of at least 6 points in series.

Nov. 15 -- at Steelers (-7.5): This is ahead of Cleveland's bye week. Pittsburgh is off a home game vs. Oakland in Week 9. The Browns lost 30-27 in the Steel City to open last season. Shaun Suisham hit the game-winning 41-yard field goal; he's already out for the 2015 season. The Browns had rallied from a 27-10 third-quarter deficit. Hoyer was 18-for-30 for 222 yards with a TD, and Terrance West rushed for 100 yards. Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 1-9 SU (4-6 ATS) in past 10 as road dog of at least 7 points in series.

Dec. 20 -- at Seahawks (-10.5): Huge break between road games for the Browns as following their bye they have a three-game homestand, which concludes Week 14 against San Francisco. Seattle is off a trip to Minnesota. I'm just flat-out calling it right now: Browns don't reach double-digit points in this one unless Seattle is ravaged by injuries. First Cleveland trip to Pacific Northwest since 2003 .Obviously Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 1-9 SU (6-4 ATS) in past 10 as road dog of at least 10 points.

Dec. 27 -- at Chiefs (-5.5): After this one, Cleveland finishes at home vs. Pittsburgh. Kansas City is off a trip to Baltimore. The Chiefs might have extra incentive to beat the Browns. Had Cleveland won in Baltimore to close last season, the Chiefs could have made the playoffs after they beat San Diego. Interesting that this all-time series is tied 11-11-2. First meeting since 23-17 Chiefs home win in 2013. Browns lose this. Key trend: Browns 5-2 ATS in past seven as a road dog of 5.5 points or fewer in December.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2015 Offensive Leader Odds

NFL training camps get started later this month with preseason action beginning in August. Sportsbooks have released odds for which players will lead the league in passing, rushing, and receiving yards for the 2015 campaign.

In a rare tie, Saints' quarterback Drew Brees and Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger each finished with exactly 4,952 yards last season. Indianapolis' Andrew Luck threw for 4,761 yards, which was third-most in the league, as the Colts' star is listed as the favorite to win the passing title.

In spite of playing just one game last season, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is the favorite to claim his third rushing title in 2015. DeMarco Murray blew away the pack last season with 1,845 yards with the Cowboys, but the running back moved within the NFC East to the Eagles this season.

The only player in these three categories that won their statisical title that is the odds-on favorite this season is Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown in the receiving department. Brown hauled in a career-high 1,698 yards in 2014, one season after finishing second in the receiving yards category in 2013.

2015 Most Passing Yards

Andrew Luck (IND) 7/4
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 5/1
Drew Brees (NO) 15/2
Peyton Manning (DEN) 15/2
Matt Ryan (ATL) 8/1
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 10/1
Matthew Stafford (DET) 10/1
Eli Manning (NYG) 25/1
Philip Rivers (SD) 25/1
Tom Brady (NE) 25/1
Tony Romo (DAL) 28/1
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) 35/1
Joe Flacco (BAL) 50/1
Alex Smith (KC) 75/1
Carson Palmer (ARI) 75/1
Colin Kaepernick (SF) 75/1
Jay Cutler (CHI) 75/1
Marcus Mariota (TEN) 75/1
Nick Foles (STL) 75/1
Andy Dalton (CIN) 85/1
Cam Newton (CAR) 85/1
Derek Carr (OAK) 85/1
Jameis Winston (TB) 85/1
Robert Griffin III (WSH) 85/1
Russell Wilson (SEA) 85/1
Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) 85/1
Blake Bortles (JAC) 100/1
Brian Hoyer (HOU) 100/1
Josh McCown (CLE) 100/1
Sam Bradford (PHI) 100/1
Geno Smith (NYJ) 150/1
Matt Cassel (BUF) 150/1

2015 Most Rushing Yards

Adrian Peterson (MIN) 9/2
Marshawn Lynch (SEA) 6/1
DeMarco Murray (PHI) 10/1
Eddie Lacy (GB) 10/1
Jamaal Charles (KC) 10/1
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) 10/1
Arian Foster (HOU) 12/1
Lesean McCoy (BUF) 12/1
Jeremy Hill (CIN) 15/1
Alfred Morris (WSH) 20/1
C.J. Anderson (DEN) 20/1
Joseph Randle (DAL) 20/1
Matt Forte (CHI) 20/1
Justin Forsett (BAL) 25/1
Todd Gurley (STL) 25/1
Melvin Gordon (SD) 28/1
Carlos Hyde (SF) 30/1
Frank Gore (IND) 50/1
Lamar Miller (MIA) 50/1
Latavius Murray (OAK) 50/1
Mark Ingram (NO) 50/1
T.J. Yeldon (JAC) 50/1
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) 65/1
Chris Ivory (NYJ) 75/1
Rashad Jennings (NYG) 100/1
Andre Ellington (ARI) 125/1
Joique Bell (DET) 150/1
Isaiah Crowell (CLE) 200/1
LeGarrette Blount (NE) 250/1

2015 Most Receiving Yards

Antonio Brown (PIT) 6/1
Julio Jones (ATL) 13/2
Calvin Johnson (DET) 15/2
Jordy Nelson (GB) 8/1
Odell Beckham (NYG) 8/1
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) 10/1
Dez Bryant (DAL) 10/1
A.J. Green (CIN) 12/1
T.Y. Hilton (IND) 15/1
Randall Cobb (GB) 20/1
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) 22/1
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) 25/1
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) 30/1
Mike Evans (TB) 35/1
Rob Gronkowski (NE) 35/1
Sammy Watkins (BUF) 35/1
Andre Johnson (IND) 50/1
DeSean Jackson (WSH) 50/1
Keenan Allen (SD) 50/1
Jimmy Graham (SEA) 60/1
Brandin Cooks (NO) 65/1
Jordan Matthews (PHI) 65/1
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) 65/1
Julian Edelman (NE) 70/1
Brandon Marshall (NYJ) 80/1
Golden Tate (DET) 80/1
Jeremy Maclin (KC) 80/1
Roddy White (ATL) 100/1
Steve Smith (BAL) 100/1
Torrey Smith (SF) 100/1
Vincent Jackson (TB) 100/1
Anquan Boldin (SF) 150/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three live long-shot prop picks to win 2015 NFL MVP
By JASON LOGAN

When it comes to handicapping the NFL MVP prop market, it’s safe to say the smart money is on a quarterback.

Since the honor was first given out to Hall of Fame RB Jim Brown in 1957, 37 quarterbacks have been tabbed the league MVP. Eighteen running backs have earned top individual honors – three of those going to Brown – and only twice has a defensive player won MVP: Alan Page in 1971 and Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Then, of course, there was placekicker Mark Moseley in 1982.

The 2015 NFL MVP odds follow that formula, with big-name QBs like Andrew Luck (+500), Aaron Rodgers (+300), and Peyton Manning (+500) topping the list (funny enough, no Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski until this suspension gets sorted out). And oddsmakers are giving plenty of respect to other playmakers, like RB Adrian Peterson (+800) and DE J.J. Watt (+800).

But if you’re looking for a big score come MVP selection time, here three live long shots that could not only win MVP for “Most Valuable Player” but also earn the acronym for “Most Value Prop” in 2015:

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+1,500)

Yes, I’m a huge Dallas fan and have a ton of respect – some of it blind – for Romo. But I’ve also watched every snap he’s taken since overthrowing Drew Bledsoe back in 2006, and he looked like a different quarterback last season.

Romo was patient and calculated with his throws, getting plenty of time from the Cowboys offensive line, rather than carelessly forcing passes into tough spots. The 2015 season also marks the first time in a long while that Romo is healthy heading into training camp. He has the NFL’s best receiver at his disposal – Dez Bryant (+1,500 to win MVP) and with the running game taking a step back, Dallas is putting a lot of its offense on No. 9 once again.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs (+1,500)

This could be the year the Chiefs break through in the AFC West. Denver is wobbling at the knees, San Diego doesn’t even want to be there, and the Raiders are still a work in progress. If Kansas City can find a way to put some added points on the board, the Chiefs could be a sleeper Super Bowl contender. They’ve added a receiving weapon in Jeremy Maclin but the playbook still goes through Charles.

He’s arguably the best open-field runner in the NFL and has the ability to rack up yardage with his power rushing or catching balls in the flat. Charles is getting up there in age and approaching the shelf life for most running backs, and could share some carries with capable back Knile Davis. And that’s why he’s priced this long. But, with a window open for KC to make a move in the conference, Charles will get plenty of credit.

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (+2,500)

The fact that his name is showing up on this list and he’s priced better than some other established quarterbacks says a lot about Bridgewater, who played beyond his years in 2014. Entering his second season, “Teddy B” has RB Adrian Peterson keeping defenses honest and a talented receiving corps that added Mike Wallace this offseason.

Bridgewater had the Vikings flirting with the playoffs last year, passing for just over 2,900 yards with 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. But it was his play at the end of the year that really impressed football fans. He threw for 1,092 yards and completed almost 72 percent of this passes for a QB rating of nearly 102 in his final four games. The NFC North is Green Bay and everyone else, so it wouldn’t be too much of a shocker if Minnesota found its way into a wild card slot – thanks in large part of Bridgewater’s progression under center.

Here's a full list of NFL MVP odds

Andrew Luck +500

Aaron Rodgers +300

Andy Dalton +5000

Alex Smith +5000

Adrian Peterson +800

Antonio Brown +1500

Ben Roethlisberger +1000

Cam Newton +1500

Colin Kaepernick +2500

Calvin Johnson +1500

Drew Brees +800

DeMarco Murray +1500

Dez Bryant +1500

Demaryius Thomas +3000

Eli Manning +2500

Eddie Lacy +1500

Joe Flacco +1200

Jamaal Charles +1500

Julio Jones +2000

J.J. Watt +800

Matt Ryan +1500

Matthew Stafford +1500

Marshawn Lynch +1000

Matt Forte +3000

Nick Foles +3000

Odell Beckham Jr +2000

Peyton Manning +500

Philip Rivers +2000

Russell Wilson +800

Ryan Tannehill +2500

Sam Bradford +2000

Tony Romo +1500

Teddy Bridgewater +2500

Field +800

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three live long-shot RBs to top the NFL in rushing yards
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL Hall of Fame Game is just about a month away and Week 1 of the schedule is a little more than two, which means football bettors are beginning to feel the excitement of another NFL season.

In order to feed your football needs, online books are releasing more and more NFL props, including which running back will lead the NFL is rushing in 2015. The big-name RBs top the board, like Adrian Peterson (+350), Eddie Lacy (+500), Marshawn Lynch (+500), and Jamal Charles (+800) just to name a few of the favorites.

But if you’re looking for some offseason value to the rushing yards prop, here are three running backs providing solid long-shot value to go “Beast Mode” this coming NFL season:

Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (+1,200)

No running back in the NFL made the most of his carries like Forsett, who led the league with 5.4 yards per rush. In the wake of the Ray Rice controversy, the perineal backup jumped at the opportunity to be the No. 1 guy in Baltimore, marching for 1,266 yards – fifth most in the NFL.

Forsett does have a big act to follow and turns 30 this October. But the Ravens don’t have much behind him on the depth chart and the passing game, now working under the playbook of coordinator Marc Trestman, could undergo growing pains with inexperienced WR – outside of veteran Steve Smith. Forsett is also running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so he could become the anchor of this offense, much like DeMarco Murray (+1,200 in Philadelphia this season) in Dallas last year.

Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (+1,200)

Bell finished a distant second behind Murray in the rushing race last season, mounting 1,361 yards on the ground. So why is he priced so high after such a huge season? Well, Bell will sit out of the first three weeks of the season due to violating the league’s substance abuse policy. There’s still value with Bell, regardless of that suspension.

Last season, he had two games in which he rushed for just 20 yards, doing more damage through the air, and had another in which he mustered only 36 yards on the ground. Overall, he carried the ball just 290 times – 102 fewer than Murray and 22 less than No. 3 rusher LeSean McCoy. Pittsburgh handed off the ball just 38.77 percent of the time last season, so Bell can play catch-up quickly if the Steelers increase his work load when he returns from suspension.

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (+1,200)

With a passing game featuring Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas, Anderson already had plenty of running room whenever he touched the ball. Add to that new head coach Gary Kubiak and his run-blocking scheme, and Broncos fans are predicting big things for Anderson, who rushed for 849 yards on only 179 carries in 2014.

Anderson really didn’t get going until midway through the season, with Manning’s regression giving him more and more touches. Reports out of training camp say Anderson is in much better shape than last year and some analyst think he can rumble for 1,400-plus yards. That would be enough to challenge for the rushing title in the new pass-happy NFL.

Here’s the full list of odds to lead the NFL in rushing yards this season:

Adrian Peterson +350
Alfred Morris +1200
Arian Foster +800
C.J. Anderson +1200
Carlos Hyde +3000
DeMarco Murray +1200
Eddie Lacy +500
Frank Gore +5000
Jamaal Charles +800
Jeremy Hill +800
Joseph Randle +1500
Justin Forsett +1200
Lamar Miller +2000
Le'Veon Bell +1200
LeSean McCoy +1500
Mark Ingram +1200
Marshawn Lynch +500
Matt Forte +2200
Melvin Gordon +1200
Rashad Jennings +3000
T.J. Yeldon +5000
Todd Gurley +800
Field +600

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three live long-shot WRs to top the NFL in receiving yards
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL Hall of Fame Game is just about a month away and Week 1 of the schedule is a little more than two, which means football bettors are beginning to feel the excitement of another NFL season.

In order to feed your football needs, online books are releasing more and more NFL props, including which receiver will lead the NFL is receiving yards in 2015. The big-name WRs top the board, like Calvin Johnson (+500), Dez Bryant (+500), Antonio Brown (+500), Demaryius Thomas (+650) and Jordy Nelson (+600) just to name a few of the favorites.

But if you’re looking for some offseason value to the rushing yards prop, here are three receivers providing solid long-shot value to go deep this coming NFL season:

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (+1,500)

Jeffery is the man in the Windy City now that Brandon Marshall is gone. He actually outperformed his former teammate in 2014, catching 1,133 yards on 85 receptions. His production is forever linked to the roller coaster known as Jay Cutler, and the big question surrounding the 6-foot-3 wideout is if he can handle being the top option or if his stats have benefitted from playing across from Marshall the last few years.

Jeffery is a handful for most defensive backs and picked up 498 yards after the catch last season, good for 15th in the NFL. He also has some additional motivation in 2015, with it being a contract year for the four-year veteran. We saw what DeMarco Murray could do when hunting for the big score, so perhaps Jeffery will get the same boost.

Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (+1,500)

Allen suffered through a sophomore slump last year following an impressive rookie campaign in 2013. He caught 77 balls for only 783 yards in 2014, a step down from the 71 catches and 1,046 yards in his first year.

Allen will be called upon early and often with standout TE Antonio Gates sitting four games due to violating the substance policy, something he’s down before with Malcolm Floyd going down during this rookie season. Rumors have him lining up in the slot, which means a heavy work load for Allen.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3,000)

Evans somehow managed to catch 1,051 yards as a rookie on a dog-crap Bucs team in 2014, with the likes of Mike Glennon and Josh McCown making the throws. He gets an upgrade at QB with No. 1 pick Jameis Winston taking over under center.

Evans caught 68 balls with an average of 15.5 yards per reception – 13th among qualified receivers – and 13 of those catches were for 25 yards or more. According to Pro Football Focus, he picked up 55 percent of his total receiving yards on deep balls. Those can add up in a hurry with Winston’s arm strength.

Here’s the full list of odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards this upcoming NFL season:

A.J. Green +800
Alshon Jeffery +1500
Andre Johnson +2000
Antonio Brown +500
Brandin Cooks +5000
Brandon Marshall +3000
Calvin Johnson +500
DeAndre Hopkins +1500
DeSean Jackson +3000
Demaryius Thomas +650
Dez Bryant +500
Emmanuel Sanders +1500
Jeremy Maclin +5000
Jimmy Graham +1500
Jordan Matthews +2500
Jordy Nelson +600
Julio Jones +500
Keenan Allen +1500
Kelvin Benjamin +5000
Mike Evans +3500
Odell Beckham +650
Randall Cobb +2000
Rob Gronkowski +2500
Roddy White +5000
Sammy Watkins +3000
Steve Smith +4000
T.Y. Hilton +1200
Victor Cruz +1500
Vincent Jackson +5000
Field +800

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three live long-shot QBs to top the NFL in passing yards
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL Hall of Fame Game is just about a month away and Week 1 of the schedule is a little more than two, which means football bettors are beginning to feel the excitement of another NFL season.

In order to feed your football fix, online books are releasing more and more NFL props, including which quarterback will lead the NFL in passing yards in 2015. Of course, all the big-name passers are at the top of the list, like Aaron Rodgers (+500), Drew Brees (+650), Andrew Luck (+350) and Payton Manning just to name a few of the favorites.

But if you’re looking for some offseason value to the passing yards prop, here are three quarterbacks providing solid long-shot value to air it out this coming NFL season:

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+1,200)

Dallas went with a ground-and-pound approach on offense last season, riding now-departed RB DeMarco Murray to the NFL’s best rushing attack. Despite running the ball 49.64 percent of the time (third most in the NFL), Romo still passed for 3,705 yards on just 435 throws, putting up a league-leading 8.52 yards per attempt.

Murray is gone, replaced by a stable of shaky runners, which means Romo could be called to shoulder the scoring load in Big D. The Cowboys have an elite target in Dez Bryant, a home-run hitter in Terrence Williams, and the always-productive TE Jason Witten. With an air-tight offensive line giving its QB plenty of time, Romo could see his touches increase in 2015.

Eli Manning, New York Giants (+1,800)

The Giants’ passing game was tempered by Victor Cruz’s injury last season and much of this long-shot prop pick hinges on his return. Odell Beckham Jr. made a name for himself and will draw much more attention in 2015, so Cruz and Rueben Randle could be primed for big years, as well as budding TE Larry Donnell.

The West Coast offense in New York will keep Eli active. On top of that lush receiving corps, Manning also has some solid pass-catchers in the backfield with him in RBs Rashard Jennings and Shane Vereen. The Giants threw the ball just 58.66 percent of the time in 2014 but put up a 61.44 percent clip in 2013. With Cruz back and protection improving for Manning, the G-Men could looks to the skies this season.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (+6,000)

Cincinnati passed the ball on just 52.41 percent of its offensive snaps last year, with Dalton making just 481 throws for 3,398 total yards – hence the 60/1 odds on him for this prop. The Bengals had a banged-up receiving corps by the end of the season but it looks like all the main options are healthy this summer, including top WR A.J. Green. Green, who is at 8/1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards, missed three games in 2014 and caught only 116 balls for 1,041 yards.

Behind Green is the improving Mohamed Sanu and returning Marvin Jones, who missed all of last season. Add to that corps speedster James Wright and former first rounder Tyler Eifert, who will get more looks as the No. 1 tight end in Hue Jackson’s offense. Dalton also has RB Giovanni Bernard as an option. He’s caught 99 passes for 863 yards in his two years in the league.

Here’s a full list of odds for most passing yards

Aaron Rodgers +500
Alex Smith +6500
Andrew Luck +350
Andy Dalton +6000
Ben Roethlisberger +650
Blake Bortles +8000
Brian Hoyer +3000
Cam Newton +3000
Carson Palmer +3000
Colin Kaepernick +6000
Derek Carr +4000
Drew Brees +650
Eli Manning +1800
Geno Smith +10000
Jameis Winston +8000
Jay Cutler +8000
Joe Flacco +2000
Marcus Mariota +6500
Matt Ryan +600
Matthew Stafford +800
Nick Foles +3000
Peyton Manning +500
Philip Rivers +2000
Robert Griffin III +5000
Russell Wilson +3000
Ryan Tannehill +2000
Sam Bradford +1500
Teddy Bridgewater +5000
Tom Brady +800
Tony Romo +1200
Field +1200

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC South NFL betting preview: Can anyone come close to toppling the Colts?
By AAA SPORTS

Houston Texans (2014 – 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 30/1
Season win total: 8.5

Why to bet the Texans: Give Bill O’Brien credit. He took a 2-14 team and made it into an almost-playoff 9-7 club. And he still had the guts to make major changes, dumping Andre Johnson and bringing in 13 free agents to go with seven draft choices. For the first time in a while expectations are high in Houston, and they think they have enough ammo to take down Indianapolis. Should be an interesting D-line with Watt, Wilfork and Clowney.

Why not to bet the Texans: QB Brian Hoyer has an experience edge on Ryan Mallett in the battle between New England castoffs, but there’s no evidence that either can get the Texans into double-digit win territory. Depth also appears to be a problem.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Indianapolis Colts (2014 – 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 7/2
Over/under total: 10.5

Why to bet the Colts: Indy should get halfway to 10 wins in division games alone, which means they have a big leg up in the division. (Over the last two years, Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are a combined 27-69.) Don’t expect too many in-division issues. Plus, Andrew Luck kills it in the dome during the regular season.

Why not to be the Colts: Indy made only token efforts in the draft to plug a run defense that is not good enough to even be called terrible. New England has destroyed the Colts on the ground four times in the last three years. Plus, if they meet again the Patriots have a score to settle regarding DeflateGate.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (2014 – 3-13 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 90/1
Over/under total: 5.5

Why to bet the Jaguars: If Blake Bortles proved anything last year, it’s that the kid is a QB who can make plays. Now the Jags have added two more weapons – free agent tight end Julius Thomas and Florida State rookie slot receiver Rashad Greene -- to jump-start at offense that averaged only 15.6 points a game last season.

Why not to bet the Jaguars: Numbers don’t lie, and the Jags have won only seven times in the last two seasons. They would love to smell .500 by Christmas, but there doesn’t appear to be enough overall talent – even in the weak AFC South.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Tennessee Titans (2014 – 2-14 SU, 3-12-1 ATS)

Odds to win AFC: 90/1
Over/under total: Over 5.5

Why to bet the Titans: OK, now the Titans get to see what they have in rookie QB Marcus Mariota. Early indications out of camp are that the kid can play. The defense figures to be better, too, now that legend Dick Lebeau is on board as a coach.

Why not to bet the Titans: Tennessee earned the right to draft high (No. 2 overall) with its season-ending 10-game losing streak last season. Besides weaving Mariota into the system, they have holes everywhere to plug.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF: College Win Totals posted
By Brian Edwards

A sportsbook has released season win totals for the 2015 college football season. To the surprise of nobody, the highest tally of victories belongs to the defending champs, as Ohio State is at 11 ('under' -140, 'over' +100).

Urban Meyer's team returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense, according to Phil Steele, who ranks OSU's schedule as the 42nd-toughest in the nation (based on foes' records in 2014). The Buckeyes open the season in a revenge spot at Virginia Tech on a Monday night. They host Hawaii, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan in non-conference games.

Ohio State doesn't have to play Wisconsin from the opposite division, and it gets to host Michigan St. at The 'Shoe. The Bucks close the regular season at The Big House in the first matchup between Meyer and Jim Harbaugh. The offshore book has OSU favored by 9.5 points over the Wolverines (-120 either way for Games of the Year lines).

The second-highest win totals (10) belong to Marshall (-120 either way), TCU ('under' -125, 'over' -115), Baylor ('under' -160, 'over' +120) and Wisconsin ('under' -210, 'over' +160). The Horned Frogs are bringing back nine starters on offense and five on defense (per Phil Steele) from a team that lost just once (at Baylor after blowing 21-point fourth-quarter lead) last season. They open at Minnesota.

Six schools have totals of 9.5 wins at various odds.

Those teams include Alabama, Michigan State, UCLA, Boise State, Florida State and Oregon.

Why does Nick Saban's team have a lower win total than the last several years? Simple answer: tougher schedule. Unlike past seasons when other SEC West schools, particularly LSU, had tougher slates and drew tougher SEC East foes, it is the Tide that has a pair of tough opponents from the East. They play at Georgia on Oct. 3 and the annual game against Tennessee, albeit at home, is expected to be much more daunting with the Volunteers poised to field their best team many years.

FSU ('under' -140, 'over' +100) lost tons of talent, including QB Jameis Winston, and bring back only four offensive starters. Unlike last year's regular-season slate, the Seminoles have to play Ga. Tech and must do so on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta. They also must go on the road to take on Clemson and Florida.

2015 College Football Win Totals

Air Force
Over 6 -130
Under 6 -110

Alabama
Over 9½ -145
Under 9½ +105

Arizona
Over 7 -140
Under 7 +100

Arizona State
Over 8½ +130
Under 8½ -170

Arkansas
Over 8½ +120
Under 8½ -160

Arkansas State
Over 7 -140
Under 7 +100

Army
Over 3½ -155
Under 3½ +115

Appalachian State
Over 8½ -175
Under 8½ +135

Auburn
Over 8½ +100
Under 8½ -140

Ball State
Over 7 +120
Under 7 -160

Baylor
Over 10 +120
Under 10 -160

Boise State
Over 9½ -110
Under 9½ -130

Boston College
Over 5½ -135
Under 5½ -105

Bowling Green
Over 5 -120
Under 5 -120

Buffalo U
Over 5½ +115
Under 5½ -155

BYU
Over 8½ +140
Under 8½ -180

California
Over 5 -130
Under 5 -110

Central Florida
Over 7 -120
Under 7 -120

Central Michigan
Over 4 -150
Under 4 +110

Charlotte
Over 2½ -130
Under 2½ -110

Clemson
Over 8½ -170
Under 8½ +130

Colorado
Over 4½ -140
Under 4½ +100

Connecticut
Over 3 -125
Under 3 -115

Duke
Over 7 -150
Under 7 +110

East Carolina
Over 7 -120
Under 7 -120

Eastern Michigan
Over 1½ -185
Under 1½ +145

Florida Atlantic
Over 5 -130
Under 5 -110

Florida International
Over 6 +110
Under 6 -150

Florida State
Over 9½ +100
Under 9½ -140

Fresno State
Over 4 -115
Under 4 -125

Georgia
Over 9 -135
Under 9 -105

Georgia State
Over 2½ -140
Under 2½ +100

Georgia Tech
Over 7½ -160
Under 7½ +120

Hawaii
Over 6 +115
Under 6 -155

Houston
Over 8½ +105
Under 8½ -145

Idaho
Over 3½ -130
Under 3½ -110

Illinois
Over 3½ -140
Under 3½ +100

Indiana
Over 6 +140
Under 6 -180

Iowa State
Over 3 -140
Under 3 +100

Kansas
Over 1½ -260
Under 1½ +180

Kansas State
Over 7 -130
Under 7 -110

Kentucky
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -120

Kent State
Over 4½ +100
Under 4½ -140

UL Lafayette
Over 8 +100
Under 8 -140

UL Monroe
Over 4 -150
Under 4 +110

Louisiana Tech
Over 8 -115
Under 8 -125

Louisville
Over 7½ +105
Under 7½ -145

LSU
Over 8 -115
Under 8 -125

Marshall
Over 10 -120
Under 10 -120

Maryland
Over 4½ -120
Under 4½ -120

Massachusetts
Over 4½ -150
Under 4½ +110

Memphis
Over 8½ -105
Under 8½ -135

Miami Florida
Over 5½ -160
Under 5½ +120

Miami Ohio
Over 4 -110
Under 4 -130

Michigan
Over 7½ -140
Under 7½ +100

Michigan State
Over 9½ -140
Under 9½ +100

Middle Tennessee
Over 7 -105
Under 7 -135

Minnesota
Over 5½ -140
Under 5½ +100

Mississippi
Over 8½ -110
Under 8½ -130

Mississippi State
Over 7 -110
Under 7 -130

Nebraska
Over 8 -120
Under 8 -120

Nevada
Over 7 -115
Under 7 -125

New Mexico
Over 4½ -135
Under 4½ -105

New Mexico State
Over 3 -130
Under 3 -110

North Carolina
Over 8 -115
Under 8 -125

North Texas
Over 5 -120
Under 5 -120

Northern Illinois
Over 8½ +120
Under 8½ -160

Northwestern
Over 6½ +110
Under 6½ -150

Notre Dame
Over 9 +110
Under 9 -150

Ohio
Over 5 -115
Under 5 -125

Ohio State
Over 11 +100
Under 11 -140

Oklahoma
Over 9 -110
Under 9 -130

Oklahoma State
Over 7 -130
Under 7 -110

Old Dominion
Over 4½ -145
Under 4½ +105

Oregon
Over 9½ -165
Under 9½ +125

Oregon State
Over 4 -110
Under 4 -130

Pittsburgh
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -120

Purdue
Over 4 -145
Under 4 +105

Rutgers
Over 5 -145
Under 5 +105

San Jose State
Over 4 -125
Under 4 -115

South Alabama
Over 3½ -135
Under 3½ -105

South Carolina
Over 7 -120
Under 7 -120

South Florida
Over 4 -105
Under 4 -135

SMU
Over 2½ -110
Under 2½ -130

Southern Miss
Over 4½ +115
Under 4½ -155

Stanford
Over 9 +100
Under 9 -140

Syracuse
Over 4½ -125
Under 4½ -115

Temple
Over 7 -130
Under 7 -110

Texas
Over 6½ +160
Under 6½ -210

Texas A&M
Over 7½ -135
Under 7½ -105

TCU
Over 10 -115
Under 10 -125

Texas San Antonio
Over 2½ -170
Under 2½ +130

Texas State
Over 7 -120
Under 7 -120

Texas Tech
Over 6 -105
Under 6 -135

Toledo
Over 7 -140
Under 7 +100

Troy
Over 4 -150
Under 4 +110

Tulane
Over 5 -120
Under 5 -120

Tulsa
Over 5 -105
Under 5 -135

UCLA
Over 9½ +100
Under 9½ -140

UNLV
Over 2½ +145
Under 2½ -185

USC
Over 8½ -105
Under 8½ -135

Utah State
Over 8 +125
Under 8 -165

UTEP
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -120

Vanderbilt
Over 3 -135
Under 3 -105

Virginia
Over 4½ -115
Under 4½ -125

Virginia Tech
Over 8 +105
Under 8 -145

Wake Forest
Over 3½ -125
Under 3½ -115

Washington
Over 4 -185
Under 4 +145

Washington State
Over 5 -130
Under 5 -110

West Virginia
Over 8 +140
Under 8 -180

Western Michigan
Over 8 -120
Under 8 -120

Wisconsin
Over 10 +160
Under 10 -210

Wyoming
Over 5 -120
Under 5 -120

Odds Subject to Change - Not All Schools Listed