NFL Championship 02/11/2024, 3:30PM

[Loves2kickass]

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - POSSIBLE MATCHUPS (CIRCA)

SF (PK) vs BAL
BAL (-4.5) vs DET
SF (-2.5) vs KC
KC (-3) vs DET

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - POSSIBLE MATCHUPS (L2KA)

SF (-2.4) vs BAL
BAL (-4.3) vs DET
SF (-4.1) vs KC
KC (-2.6) vs DET

 

[Loves2kickass]

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - POSSIBLE MATCHUPS (CIRCA)

SF (-2.5) vs KC
KC (-3) vs DET

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - POSSIBLE MATCHUPS (L2KA)

SF (-4.1) vs KC
KC (-2.6) vs DET

 

[Loves2kickass]

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - (CIRCA)

SF (-2) vs KC

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - (L2KA)

SF (-4.1) vs KC

 

[Loves2kickass]

I'll be posting my pointspread opinion/suggestion the day of the Super Bowl, Feb 11th.

 

[Loves2kickass]

All betting & game updates in my post will be only from Circa Sports.

Opening Line 01/22, 3:08PM
San Francisco -2.5 (-115), o47 (-110), -145
Kansas City +2.5 (-105), u47 (-110), +125

Current Line 01/28, 9:10 PM
San Francisco -1 (-110), o47.5 (-110), -120
Kansas City +1 (-110), u47.5 (-110), +100

 

[Loves2kickass]

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP - (L2KA)

SF (-4.1) vs KC

The SuperBook opened San Fran -2 on the Super Bowl 58 odds board, and the number immediately got bet down to -1.5. It then dipped to Niners -1 late this evening.

"This was a difficult line to make. Definitely some scrambling as San Francisco made its second-half comeback," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said. "San Francisco's offense is so good that they were gonna be favored against anyone."

Michaelson noted two components that kept The SuperBook from opening higher.

"The San Francisco defense has looked really suspect recently, and Christian McCaffrey looked injured at the end of the game. Otherwise, we would've opened toward 49ers -3."

The line would have opened closer to what it should have without the last couple reasons in the last paragraph above. I have it at SF -4. I assumed it would open at SF -3/-3.5. The books settled at SF -2/-2.5

 

[Joe$$Moneyline]

ML
For me
I don’t trust them to cover any spread

 

[Loves2kickass]

Is the KC offense really fixed or did they just play the two most depleted defenses in the NFL before only putting up 17 in the AFCCG?

Is the 49ers’ defense really a liability or did they just play two of the hottest offenses in the league?

 

[Serbone]

Is the 49ers’ defense really a liability or did they just play two of the hottest offenses in the league?

Steve Wilks is the new SF DC this year. Look at his resume, he rarely makes it 2 years per gig. What does that tell you?

Per an insider, as DC at U of Missouri in 2021, he had the kids so messed up they took play calling from him mid season and massively simplified the defense and Missouri did a lot better. He of course left the team for a new gig after one year.

I have wagered on SF this year anyway, but IMO with the talent they have they are not playing as well as they should.

As a coach:

Johnson C. Smith (1995–1996) Defensive coordinator Savannah State (1997–1998) Defensive coordinator Savannah State (1999) Head coach Illinois State (2000) Defensive backs coach Appalachian State (2001) Defensive backs coach East Tennessee State (2002) Defensive coordinator Bowling Green (2003) Defensive backs coach Notre Dame (2004) Defensive backs coach Washington (2005) Secondary coach Chicago Bears (2006–2008) Defensive backs coach San Diego Chargers (2009–2011) Defensive backs coach Carolina Panthers (2012–2014) Defensive backs coach Carolina Panthers (2015–2016) Assistant head coach & defensive backs coach Carolina Panthers (2017) Assistant head coach & defensive coordinator Arizona Cardinals (2018) Head coach Cleveland Browns (2019) Defensive coordinator Missouri (2021) Defensive coordinator Carolina Panthers (2022) Defensive passing game coordinator & secondary coach Carolina Panthers (2022) Interim head coach San Francisco 49ers (2023–present) Defensive coordinator

 

[exploited17]

Great defenses stop great(Not sure I would call either great anyway) offenses all the time....especially at home in the playoffs or SB. That is no excuse. I hope you are not relying on that.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Great defenses stop great(Not sure I would call either great anyway) offenses all the time....especially at home in the playoffs or SB. That is no excuse. I hope you are not relying on that.

Just passing on facts. I haven't made any SB bets yet as you have already.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Is the 49ers’ defense really a liability or did they just play two of the hottest offenses in the league?

The last 5 weeks of the regular season and playoffs Offensive team EPA/Sucess Rate. GB #1, DET #5.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Great defenses stop great(Not sure I would call either great anyway) offenses all the time....especially at home in the playoffs or SB. That is no excuse. I hope you are not relying on that.

In my opinion, the line should be SF -3/-4. After the line was put back on the board at the conclusion of the championship games everyone jumped on KC dropping the line to -1. Looks like it's settling back at -2.5 closer to what it should be.

 

[exploited17]

You have to watch the playoffs as if you know nothing about these teams. Once you get to the SB your eyes should tell you everything. No idea how anyone can bet SF. While no doubt there isn't a huge difference in these teams I think if they play best of 7 KC wins. Anyone relying on regular season and what they saw then and how good they thought those teams were should be surprised SF would have not smoked one of these teams and KC shouldn't be here. I think that says plenty
BOL whatever your final decision. After all if SF wins by 3 fine by me.

 

[Serbone]

You have to watch the playoffs as if you know nothing about these teams. Once you get to the SB your eyes should tell you everything. No idea how anyone can bet SF. While no doubt there isn't a huge difference in these teams I think if they play best of 7 KC wins. Anyone relying on regular season and what they saw then and how good they thought those teams were should be surprised SF would have not smoked one of these teams and KC shouldn't be here. I think that says plenty
BOL whatever your final decision. After all if SF wins by 3 fine by me.

Looking at playoff results, primarily, I totally agree that KC looks to be the significantly better team inm this spot.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Are you are waiting for my guidance L2KA? I am taking SF on the ML. Official pick. I bet that as soon as it was posted. I hope I am not jinxed that other dude likes it also. All in. It's a winner. SF to many weapons of mass destruction.

 

[XXII]

San Fran is beyond stacked.
CHM should run through them like a hot knife through soft butter.
Buffalo should have beat them……..again. Never forget 13 seconds!
Lots of experience with Mahomes. The guy is like a magician.
Bottom line. To be the Man, you got to Beat the Man.
Story book finish….Kelce MVP ….. he is going to DisneyWorld with Swifty!

 

[itchyback]

Is the KC offense really fixed or did they just play the two most depleted defenses in the NFL before only putting up 17 in the AFCCG?

Is the 49ers’ defense really a liability or did they just play two of the hottest offenses in the league?

No one talking about chiefs D holding ravens to 10 points

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Or someone's choking on their chicken bone?

 

[exploited17]

People always get worked up about unstoppable offenses. Like 2007 Pats or 2001 Rams and so on. What happened to those teams?