I dont look at quarters in the first half too much, so maybe someone else can give you a better answer.
I would look at FG/TD ratio for both teams as well as gameplan and other team tendencies. Some teams prefer a chess-match type of approach and dont show much in the first half hoping to key on opponent's mistakes and turn it on in the 2nd. A lot of teams try to establish the run in the first half in order to wear down the opponent for the 2nd.
Seems like the number would be closer to 9.5, if I was looking at that game my initial lean would be to investigate the first half under, it seems that's what the bookmaker is thinking.
I would look at FG/TD ratio for both teams as well as gameplan and other team tendencies. Some teams prefer a chess-match type of approach and dont show much in the first half hoping to key on opponent's mistakes and turn it on in the 2nd. A lot of teams try to establish the run in the first half in order to wear down the opponent for the 2nd.
Seems like the number would be closer to 9.5, if I was looking at that game my initial lean would be to investigate the first half under, it seems that's what the bookmaker is thinking.
Thanks. Oly typically has 6½ to 7½ for 1st qtr lines on all games. I tried this Monday, taking over 7 1st qtr, under 38 for game. The last TD blew it of course but I was wondering if others see this as a plan.
Maybe 3rd over 7 under 17-22 would be an option as well. Just thinking a bit.
Maybe 3rd over 7 under 17-22 would be an option as well. Just thinking a bit.
ger, I used to fool around with DB's a lot more in the past, now I go a lot more on intuition. A lot of times the numbers simply get in the way, some of the stuff I keep I do bet blindly though. The oddsmakers keep those type of ratios and incorporate it into a lot of the spreads. I look more into predicting what will happen vs. their historical values.
General, you can beat OLY on quarters if you pick your spots, they simply put TOO MANY lines out there to be sharp on all of them. Be careful laying -120 or more though. That's the best way to line quarters--using key numbers with increased vig, using -7 -125 instead of -8.5 +100 for instance. This is all just off the top of my head, but chances are that the exact scoring would be 6, 7, or 10 (9 a little lower) in a quarter I would guess. And only one of those would be a winner on -7 -125 (and 9 too) so it depends on the frequency of the 10 vs 6 for instance. I dont mind laying -120 if I have a good reason, but anything above that gets dicey.
I am starting to look more at halves, so I'll be looking at more quarters this season. IMO, if you can get solid gameplan info and emotional factors for a team, then that can be very relevant for a specific 1st or 3rd quarter.
General, you can beat OLY on quarters if you pick your spots, they simply put TOO MANY lines out there to be sharp on all of them. Be careful laying -120 or more though. That's the best way to line quarters--using key numbers with increased vig, using -7 -125 instead of -8.5 +100 for instance. This is all just off the top of my head, but chances are that the exact scoring would be 6, 7, or 10 (9 a little lower) in a quarter I would guess. And only one of those would be a winner on -7 -125 (and 9 too) so it depends on the frequency of the 10 vs 6 for instance. I dont mind laying -120 if I have a good reason, but anything above that gets dicey.
I am starting to look more at halves, so I'll be looking at more quarters this season. IMO, if you can get solid gameplan info and emotional factors for a team, then that can be very relevant for a specific 1st or 3rd quarter.
I found this article, might be of help.
One area of football betting that has seen a surge in popularity over the past few years is “halftime wagering” where a player can place a stake on the outcome of a “half” rather than a full game.
The lines for the 1st half of games are a simple enough prospect, and are often close to the full line on a game divided by two. There’s usually a slight penalty to the favorite (so a –7 line might be –4.5 for the favorite in the first half), but by and large you can predict the lines with some accuracy if you know the full spread. The sportsbooks can set the 1st half numbers well in advance of the game, and suffer no more than the typical exposure in the event of a bad line.
On the other hand, the second half lines that get set in the short time between halves are where the real adventure takes place, for the linemakers, the books, and the players who elect to jump in!
For these latter wagers, linemakers send over a hastily created second half line and the casinos book a flurry of bets in the few minutes before the game resumes. Clearly when posting a number with so little time to assess everything there is substantial room for error, and this is one reason why the bets are finding an audience among sharp players.
Now unfortunately we don’t have a database built that contains halftime lines, so the following research is based on using the full line whole or divided by two to reflect an approximation of a halftime line. Again for the 1st half of games this will be reasonably close, while the second half may in some cases be far off.
Nonetheless, we should be able to glean some patterns to how teams respond to events in the early stages of the game. Our first test is how often the team with the lead in the first half (against half the full spread or straight-up; we’ll look at it both ways) gets the “cover” in the second half against the full line divided by two. In other words, if we treat the second half spread as half the full line (which is an approximation) how often does the team ahead cover in the second half?
NFL Half Comparisons 1983-2002: % of the time the first half leader “covers” a second half line of the full spread divided by two
Team Type 1st Half "Spread" Leader 1st Half score Leader
ALL 45% 43%
Home Favorites 41% 41%
Home Underdogs 50% 48%
Away Favorites 44% 43%
Away Underdogs 49% 46%
So in general, the team that fared well in the first half is unlikely to cover a second half line of “half the full spread” – this is particularly true for favorites. In terms of the actual second half lines, what often happens is that an underdog that’s ahead will be receiving a line that is closer to the full value spread than half of it. Likewise a big favorite that’s far in the lead will not be facing half of the full spread again at that point.
The numbers in the table can also be flipped around to learn the comparable percentage for the team that is behind. For instance an away underdog that’s behind in the first half will “cover” half the full line in the second half at a healthy 59% clip.
The value then seems to be in going against favorites with a lead who are giving at least half the original spread in points in the second half (better of course if they are giving more!). Meanwhile underdogs with the lead can be solid plays if they are getting more than half the original spread in the second half line. There are key numbers in the NFL for spreads (eg 3’s and 7’s) that make it elaborate to give a hard and fast rule as to what the difference in an extra point translates into for a winning percentage. Rest assured though that one or two extra points can usually boost your expected winning percentage significantly!
A more detailed breakout of the above follows, showing the relative lead of the team in the first half --
1st Half "SPREAD" lead, 2nd half "line" performance 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL
HomeFavs 154 - 191 167 - 237 115 - 175 105 - 178 138 - 201 679 - 982
HomeDogs 100 - 88 108 - 95 63 - 77 55 - 65 79 - 83 405 - 408
AwayFavs 55 - 83 110 - 116 67 - 63 42 - 70 57 - 82 331 - 414
AwayDogs 189 - 169 238 - 186 124 - 154 90 - 121 99 - 152 740 - 782
Favorites 209 - 274 277 - 353 182 - 238 147 - 248 195 - 283 1010 - 1396
Underdogs 289 - 257 346 - 281 187 - 231 145 - 186 178 - 235 1145 - 1190
Home Teams 254 - 279 275 - 332 178 - 252 160 - 243 217 - 284 1084 - 1390
Away Teams 244 - 252 348 - 302 191 - 217 132 - 191 156 - 234 1071 - 1196
ALL PICKS 498 - 531 623 - 634 369 - 469 292 - 434 373 - 518 2155 - 2586
WIN % 48 % 50 % 44 % 40 % 42 % 45 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5
Favorites 131 - 195 387 - 543 492 - 658
Underdogs 148 - 131 391 - 410 606 - 649
So the bigger the "spread" lead, the less likely it is the team will cover a second half line of the full line divided by two. This is especially true of favorites that grab a lead in the first half of more than half the full spread on the game by 10+ points, as these favorites are just 342-531 (39%) against a second half line that is half the full line. Now it may well be that when a favorite grabs a huge lead the second half spread is adjusted down in ratio from the full one, but in the event that it is not, you now know where the value is!
Let's complete the look here by taking the same table from a "straight-up" first half perspective (eg the team that's in the lead on the scoreboard):
1st Half SCORE lead, 2nd half "line" performance 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL
HomeFavs 30 - 50 200 - 264 134 - 171 152 - 239 251 - 388 767 - 1112
HomeDogs 16 - 29 108 - 95 53 - 70 47 - 60 68 - 63 292 - 317
AwayFavs 19 - 32 81 - 127 77 - 90 87 - 84 91 - 139 355 - 472
AwayDogs 47 - 35 190 - 183 88 - 118 68 - 114 72 - 101 465 - 551
Favorites 49 - 82 281 - 391 211 - 261 239 - 323 342 - 527 1122 - 1584
Underdogs 63 - 64 298 - 278 141 - 188 115 - 174 140 - 164 757 - 868
Home Teams 46 - 79 308 - 359 187 - 241 199 - 299 319 - 451 1059 - 1429
Away Teams 66 - 67 271 - 310 165 - 208 155 - 198 163 - 240 820 - 1023
ALL PICKS 112 - 146 579 - 669 352 - 449 354 - 497 482 - 691 1879 - 2452
WIN % 43 % 46 % 44 % 42 % 41 % 43 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5
Favorites 179 - 261 428 - 644 515 - 679
Underdogs 66 - 68 215 - 307 476 - 493
More of the same kind of confirmation of the basic tenets to take away -- go against favorites that had the upper hand in the first half if they are laying at least half the original spread in the second half.
An alternative way of looking at things is asking “how often does a team with a first half lead simply outscore its opponent in the second half?”
1st Half SCORE lead, Second Half SCORE results 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL
HomeFavs 46 - 33 235 - 188 156 - 116 197 - 169 309 - 262 943 - 768
HomeDogs 11 - 31 80 - 104 40 - 71 38 - 65 52 - 67 221 - 338
AwayFavs 20 - 26 100 - 79 88 - 62 92 - 65 110 - 98 410 - 330
AwayDogs 30 - 43 123 - 220 65 - 134 49 - 126 48 - 112 315 - 635
Favorites 66 - 59 335 - 267 244 - 178 289 - 234 419 - 360 1353 - 1098
Underdogs 41 - 74 203 - 324 105 - 205 87 - 191 100 - 179 536 - 973
Home Teams 57 - 64 315 - 292 196 - 187 235 - 234 361 - 329 1164 - 1106
Away Teams 50 - 69 223 - 299 153 - 196 141 - 191 158 - 210 725 - 965
ALL PICKS 107 - 133 538 - 591 349 - 383 376 - 425 519 - 539 1889 - 2071
WIN % 45 % 48 % 48 % 47 % 49 % 48 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5
Favorites 275 - 129 545 - 424 533 - 545
Underdogs 22 - 100 144 - 349 370 - 524
So it turns out that favorites with a lead do outscore opponents in the second half as well most of the time, but not to the degree as we discovered earlier that they will cover the second half spread (presuming it’s half the full spread or more). Dogs likewise with a lead seldom outplay the opposition in the second half – but again unless you are looking at second half “money-lines” the first table gives you a better sense of which teams to back against a second half spread.
One area of football betting that has seen a surge in popularity over the past few years is “halftime wagering” where a player can place a stake on the outcome of a “half” rather than a full game.
The lines for the 1st half of games are a simple enough prospect, and are often close to the full line on a game divided by two. There’s usually a slight penalty to the favorite (so a –7 line might be –4.5 for the favorite in the first half), but by and large you can predict the lines with some accuracy if you know the full spread. The sportsbooks can set the 1st half numbers well in advance of the game, and suffer no more than the typical exposure in the event of a bad line.
On the other hand, the second half lines that get set in the short time between halves are where the real adventure takes place, for the linemakers, the books, and the players who elect to jump in!
For these latter wagers, linemakers send over a hastily created second half line and the casinos book a flurry of bets in the few minutes before the game resumes. Clearly when posting a number with so little time to assess everything there is substantial room for error, and this is one reason why the bets are finding an audience among sharp players.
Now unfortunately we don’t have a database built that contains halftime lines, so the following research is based on using the full line whole or divided by two to reflect an approximation of a halftime line. Again for the 1st half of games this will be reasonably close, while the second half may in some cases be far off.
Nonetheless, we should be able to glean some patterns to how teams respond to events in the early stages of the game. Our first test is how often the team with the lead in the first half (against half the full spread or straight-up; we’ll look at it both ways) gets the “cover” in the second half against the full line divided by two. In other words, if we treat the second half spread as half the full line (which is an approximation) how often does the team ahead cover in the second half?
NFL Half Comparisons 1983-2002: % of the time the first half leader “covers” a second half line of the full spread divided by two
Team Type 1st Half "Spread" Leader 1st Half score Leader
ALL 45% 43%
Home Favorites 41% 41%
Home Underdogs 50% 48%
Away Favorites 44% 43%
Away Underdogs 49% 46%
So in general, the team that fared well in the first half is unlikely to cover a second half line of “half the full spread” – this is particularly true for favorites. In terms of the actual second half lines, what often happens is that an underdog that’s ahead will be receiving a line that is closer to the full value spread than half of it. Likewise a big favorite that’s far in the lead will not be facing half of the full spread again at that point.
The numbers in the table can also be flipped around to learn the comparable percentage for the team that is behind. For instance an away underdog that’s behind in the first half will “cover” half the full line in the second half at a healthy 59% clip.
The value then seems to be in going against favorites with a lead who are giving at least half the original spread in points in the second half (better of course if they are giving more!). Meanwhile underdogs with the lead can be solid plays if they are getting more than half the original spread in the second half line. There are key numbers in the NFL for spreads (eg 3’s and 7’s) that make it elaborate to give a hard and fast rule as to what the difference in an extra point translates into for a winning percentage. Rest assured though that one or two extra points can usually boost your expected winning percentage significantly!
A more detailed breakout of the above follows, showing the relative lead of the team in the first half --
1st Half "SPREAD" lead, 2nd half "line" performance 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL
HomeFavs 154 - 191 167 - 237 115 - 175 105 - 178 138 - 201 679 - 982
HomeDogs 100 - 88 108 - 95 63 - 77 55 - 65 79 - 83 405 - 408
AwayFavs 55 - 83 110 - 116 67 - 63 42 - 70 57 - 82 331 - 414
AwayDogs 189 - 169 238 - 186 124 - 154 90 - 121 99 - 152 740 - 782
Favorites 209 - 274 277 - 353 182 - 238 147 - 248 195 - 283 1010 - 1396
Underdogs 289 - 257 346 - 281 187 - 231 145 - 186 178 - 235 1145 - 1190
Home Teams 254 - 279 275 - 332 178 - 252 160 - 243 217 - 284 1084 - 1390
Away Teams 244 - 252 348 - 302 191 - 217 132 - 191 156 - 234 1071 - 1196
ALL PICKS 498 - 531 623 - 634 369 - 469 292 - 434 373 - 518 2155 - 2586
WIN % 48 % 50 % 44 % 40 % 42 % 45 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5
Favorites 131 - 195 387 - 543 492 - 658
Underdogs 148 - 131 391 - 410 606 - 649
So the bigger the "spread" lead, the less likely it is the team will cover a second half line of the full line divided by two. This is especially true of favorites that grab a lead in the first half of more than half the full spread on the game by 10+ points, as these favorites are just 342-531 (39%) against a second half line that is half the full line. Now it may well be that when a favorite grabs a huge lead the second half spread is adjusted down in ratio from the full one, but in the event that it is not, you now know where the value is!
Let's complete the look here by taking the same table from a "straight-up" first half perspective (eg the team that's in the lead on the scoreboard):
1st Half SCORE lead, 2nd half "line" performance 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL
HomeFavs 30 - 50 200 - 264 134 - 171 152 - 239 251 - 388 767 - 1112
HomeDogs 16 - 29 108 - 95 53 - 70 47 - 60 68 - 63 292 - 317
AwayFavs 19 - 32 81 - 127 77 - 90 87 - 84 91 - 139 355 - 472
AwayDogs 47 - 35 190 - 183 88 - 118 68 - 114 72 - 101 465 - 551
Favorites 49 - 82 281 - 391 211 - 261 239 - 323 342 - 527 1122 - 1584
Underdogs 63 - 64 298 - 278 141 - 188 115 - 174 140 - 164 757 - 868
Home Teams 46 - 79 308 - 359 187 - 241 199 - 299 319 - 451 1059 - 1429
Away Teams 66 - 67 271 - 310 165 - 208 155 - 198 163 - 240 820 - 1023
ALL PICKS 112 - 146 579 - 669 352 - 449 354 - 497 482 - 691 1879 - 2452
WIN % 43 % 46 % 44 % 42 % 41 % 43 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5
Favorites 179 - 261 428 - 644 515 - 679
Underdogs 66 - 68 215 - 307 476 - 493
More of the same kind of confirmation of the basic tenets to take away -- go against favorites that had the upper hand in the first half if they are laying at least half the original spread in the second half.
An alternative way of looking at things is asking “how often does a team with a first half lead simply outscore its opponent in the second half?”
1st Half SCORE lead, Second Half SCORE results 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL
HomeFavs 46 - 33 235 - 188 156 - 116 197 - 169 309 - 262 943 - 768
HomeDogs 11 - 31 80 - 104 40 - 71 38 - 65 52 - 67 221 - 338
AwayFavs 20 - 26 100 - 79 88 - 62 92 - 65 110 - 98 410 - 330
AwayDogs 30 - 43 123 - 220 65 - 134 49 - 126 48 - 112 315 - 635
Favorites 66 - 59 335 - 267 244 - 178 289 - 234 419 - 360 1353 - 1098
Underdogs 41 - 74 203 - 324 105 - 205 87 - 191 100 - 179 536 - 973
Home Teams 57 - 64 315 - 292 196 - 187 235 - 234 361 - 329 1164 - 1106
Away Teams 50 - 69 223 - 299 153 - 196 141 - 191 158 - 210 725 - 965
ALL PICKS 107 - 133 538 - 591 349 - 383 376 - 425 519 - 539 1889 - 2071
WIN % 45 % 48 % 48 % 47 % 49 % 48 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5
Favorites 275 - 129 545 - 424 533 - 545
Underdogs 22 - 100 144 - 349 370 - 524
So it turns out that favorites with a lead do outscore opponents in the second half as well most of the time, but not to the degree as we discovered earlier that they will cover the second half spread (presuming it’s half the full spread or more). Dogs likewise with a lead seldom outplay the opposition in the second half – but again unless you are looking at second half “money-lines” the first table gives you a better sense of which teams to back against a second half spread.
winbet, I just glanced at the article, but I cant believe they are making all of these assumptions without a 2nd half database!! 2nd half lines are definitely NOT full games/2. It looks like another math guru stumbling over the numbers and looking in all the wrong places. Thanks for posting it Winbet, I find it invaluable to see how other people, especially the more statistically inclined, look at things. Where did you find it? I'll reread it later and maybe add a few things. Thanks, winbet, I wish more people would add to these discussions.
http://www.twominutewarning.com/index.htm
Although its a bit heavy for stats, there are some which can show up holes that are disguised by the normal stats. I found the cornerback stats interesting when comparing what is perceived to be an elite miami duo against a regardedly weak Pittsburgh duo.
Although its a bit heavy for stats, there are some which can show up holes that are disguised by the normal stats. I found the cornerback stats interesting when comparing what is perceived to be an elite miami duo against a regardedly weak Pittsburgh duo.
thanks, Winbet.
any other sites with theory out there from anyone?
I don't spend any time searching for stuff like this, but I find it very interesting.
2nd half spreads are rarely 1/2 full game totals/sides. And the value of a half point in the 2nd half is enormous, especially around key numbers.
any other sites with theory out there from anyone?
I don't spend any time searching for stuff like this, but I find it very interesting.
2nd half spreads are rarely 1/2 full game totals/sides. And the value of a half point in the 2nd half is enormous, especially around key numbers.
The Logical Approach
Recently I've been studying runlines and the percentage of one-run games. The link there is a link to a good web site. It's kind of hard to find stuff but it has a search engine to search their own site.
Recently I've been studying runlines and the percentage of one-run games. The link there is a link to a good web site. It's kind of hard to find stuff but it has a search engine to search their own site.
A possible lesson from English soccer.
Scoring patterns in soccer aren't uniform.Around 44% of the goals are scored in the first half & the remaining 56% come in the second.(Soccer's a game of two halves to use a well worn commentating cliche).
A pretty good approximation of the goal expectancy for the remaining duration of the game is given by A*(B^0.83),where A is the initial goal expectancy for the whole game & B is the proportion of the game remaining.(This though assumes your original estimation of A was correct & is still valid).
I presume,although I haven't gone thru the box scores that this accelerated scoring as the game progresses is also seen in American football.
The only complication I can see is you'd really have to look at scoring events(TD's,FG's,etc) as opposed to points when dealing with the NFL.
P.
Scoring patterns in soccer aren't uniform.Around 44% of the goals are scored in the first half & the remaining 56% come in the second.(Soccer's a game of two halves to use a well worn commentating cliche).
A pretty good approximation of the goal expectancy for the remaining duration of the game is given by A*(B^0.83),where A is the initial goal expectancy for the whole game & B is the proportion of the game remaining.(This though assumes your original estimation of A was correct & is still valid).
I presume,although I haven't gone thru the box scores that this accelerated scoring as the game progresses is also seen in American football.
The only complication I can see is you'd really have to look at scoring events(TD's,FG's,etc) as opposed to points when dealing with the NFL.
P.
Thanks for all the feedback. I tried the team total of Cal over 9½ in the second half last night, then parlayed cal(13½) & under 31 for game second half. If lose the Cal over 9½, good chance of the parlay coming in. In this case got both.
I like playing around with this qtr & halves.
I like playing around with this qtr & halves.
Potter: Do you have any specific references for the soccer stuff you mention? I'd love to add to my meager collection of soccer papers.
It should also be noted that soccer scoring tends to increase during each half, reaching its crescendo in stoppage time. Injuries follow a similar pattern.
It should also be noted that soccer scoring tends to increase during each half, reaching its crescendo in stoppage time. Injuries follow a similar pattern.
potter, it's a little different in the NFL. you are headed in the right direction though. I can't get very detailed but it's a combination of key numbers, actual line, and public perception for pounding the books on NFL 2nd halves. I'm not 100% sure how much one-sided action they want, but it looks like they are baiting. IMO a lot of NFL 2nd halves are catered to middlers who want to middle with halves to full game spreads they already own. Regular season games provide more value as the spreads are more variable, and there is more effort from key personnell for the last 30 min, but the same strategy I use in the reg. season has fared well in NFLX. How beatable is European football (soccer) on 2nd halves in your opinion? I have a lifetime 80% winning percentage in your football. I have won 4 and lost 1, lol.
General, the quarters are beatable if you form a strategy. I noticed OLY went from o/u 9.5 -110 3rd and o/u 11.5 4th-110 to -115 on each. I was looking hard at the under 11.5 in the 4th Q then they moved to -115 on each. Somebody is forcing them to do that IMO.
General, the quarters are beatable if you form a strategy. I noticed OLY went from o/u 9.5 -110 3rd and o/u 11.5 4th-110 to -115 on each. I was looking hard at the under 11.5 in the 4th Q then they moved to -115 on each. Somebody is forcing them to do that IMO.
ATX,thanks for the imput,very readable as always.The NFL's the only US sport I bet on(I actually love watching the game)& your posts have influece just about every perception I have about the game.Thanks.
Soccer as a betting medium is probably as punter friendly as its ever been.Internet betting means the overrounds are down to tiny amounts & singles as opposed to minimum trebles is now universal.
Most numerate people could handicap a soccer game with a fair degree of accuracy.Goals scored in the past are a good indicator of goals scored in the future & they follow the poisson distribution closely.
As to your specific point about betting on second halves.Looking at the posted prices most firms seem to do it by the book.The closest you get to them taking a view is if the pre game fav is trailing.Possibly some book balancing or bettors not being able to make a dispassionate judgement.
Where they can be exploited is "in running" betting.I've tracked a few games that I've watched live(they bet upto the 80th min) & again if the fav goes behind you're almost certain to get the wrong prices posted about the team leading.
Editor Dave,
A lot of the soccer theories posted on forums etc is at best unsubstanciated nonsense....which is good.
Check out www.Racingpost.com its the UK's daily trade paper for horse racing,but it deals with sport as well.You need to register,but at the moment it's free.
Scroll down to Library cuttings & when the search page appears,in headlines as opposed to content search for "football trends" & "Between the lines"(no need for the quotes).You should get over 200 articles.
They're written by Kevin Pullein,he's a stats guy but he keeps it simple.I'd agree with a large part of what he writes & he borrows a bit from most of the more academic stuff published in the UK.
If you read all his articles I'd say you'd probably know more about soccer betting/how to devise prices/how to spot angles etc than 99.9% of soccer bettors world wide.
Unfortunately his most common phrase is "the layers have got it right".
Well worth tracking down though.
BTW you're quite right on the 45th & 90th mins producing more goals.Refs add time on for injuries,30 secs for each goal scored & 30 secs for each substitution.
P.
Soccer as a betting medium is probably as punter friendly as its ever been.Internet betting means the overrounds are down to tiny amounts & singles as opposed to minimum trebles is now universal.
Most numerate people could handicap a soccer game with a fair degree of accuracy.Goals scored in the past are a good indicator of goals scored in the future & they follow the poisson distribution closely.
As to your specific point about betting on second halves.Looking at the posted prices most firms seem to do it by the book.The closest you get to them taking a view is if the pre game fav is trailing.Possibly some book balancing or bettors not being able to make a dispassionate judgement.
Where they can be exploited is "in running" betting.I've tracked a few games that I've watched live(they bet upto the 80th min) & again if the fav goes behind you're almost certain to get the wrong prices posted about the team leading.
Editor Dave,
A lot of the soccer theories posted on forums etc is at best unsubstanciated nonsense....which is good.
Check out www.Racingpost.com its the UK's daily trade paper for horse racing,but it deals with sport as well.You need to register,but at the moment it's free.
Scroll down to Library cuttings & when the search page appears,in headlines as opposed to content search for "football trends" & "Between the lines"(no need for the quotes).You should get over 200 articles.
They're written by Kevin Pullein,he's a stats guy but he keeps it simple.I'd agree with a large part of what he writes & he borrows a bit from most of the more academic stuff published in the UK.
If you read all his articles I'd say you'd probably know more about soccer betting/how to devise prices/how to spot angles etc than 99.9% of soccer bettors world wide.
Unfortunately his most common phrase is "the layers have got it right".
Well worth tracking down though.
BTW you're quite right on the 45th & 90th mins producing more goals.Refs add time on for injuries,30 secs for each goal scored & 30 secs for each substitution.
P.
It was mentioned earlier in this thread that half points and key numbers become even more important in 2nd half NFL betting. That's true, but it should be noted that 2nd half key numbers are often greatly different from the set of key numbers that a game starts with.
Example: Home team goes off at -6 and is up 13-7 at the half. Naturally, the 2nd half line should be roughly Home -3. Most books post Home -3, and you manage to find one that hangs a -2.5. Have you found the Holy Grail? Should you back up the truck and unload?
Not quite. Why? It isn't really that likely that the Home team will outscore Away by precisely 3 in the 2nd half. If they did, the final margin would end up Home -9. Unless you've been living in a cave, you know that 9 is not exactly a key number. It is actually more likely that the Home team will win the 2nd half by 1 or lose it by 3 rather than win it by 3.
Makes sense if you think about it. Of course, it also helps to have a tool that easily researches these things for you. I just happen to have built one, which is why I know this stuff.
What I *don't* have is knowledge of any books that allow one to buy half points on halftime lines.
Example: Home team goes off at -6 and is up 13-7 at the half. Naturally, the 2nd half line should be roughly Home -3. Most books post Home -3, and you manage to find one that hangs a -2.5. Have you found the Holy Grail? Should you back up the truck and unload?
Not quite. Why? It isn't really that likely that the Home team will outscore Away by precisely 3 in the 2nd half. If they did, the final margin would end up Home -9. Unless you've been living in a cave, you know that 9 is not exactly a key number. It is actually more likely that the Home team will win the 2nd half by 1 or lose it by 3 rather than win it by 3.
Makes sense if you think about it. Of course, it also helps to have a tool that easily researches these things for you. I just happen to have built one, which is why I know this stuff.
What I *don't* have is knowledge of any books that allow one to buy half points on halftime lines.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Potter:
BTW you're quite right on the 45th & 90th mins producing more goals.Refs add time on for injuries,30 secs for each goal scored & 30 secs for each substitution.
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Even when accounting for the extra time, both scoring and injuries increase as the halves come to a close. Also, injury severity increases as well. Fatigue contribute to ill-advised and poorly executed tackles. Its much more likely to tear an MCL or ACL in the 40th minute than the 20th.
BTW you're quite right on the 45th & 90th mins producing more goals.Refs add time on for injuries,30 secs for each goal scored & 30 secs for each substitution.
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Even when accounting for the extra time, both scoring and injuries increase as the halves come to a close. Also, injury severity increases as well. Fatigue contribute to ill-advised and poorly executed tackles. Its much more likely to tear an MCL or ACL in the 40th minute than the 20th.
Dave,
I cant say too much as I dont want to give a whole lot away. One of the key things is to have a stronger line on a game than what is being sold. Then at the half with points being more valuable, it is magnified in many cases. Teams that are underdogs should often be favored, you cant let the full game line influence a move in the 2nd half, the correlation is opposite what seems obvious. 2nd halves are somewhat independent events, but there are correlations by scoring patterns. This probably doesnt make a lot of sense, I'm sorry I have to be so vague, but I dont necessarily consider the full game line to be accurate in a lot of events, accuracy and profitability are two different things.
I cant say too much as I dont want to give a whole lot away. One of the key things is to have a stronger line on a game than what is being sold. Then at the half with points being more valuable, it is magnified in many cases. Teams that are underdogs should often be favored, you cant let the full game line influence a move in the 2nd half, the correlation is opposite what seems obvious. 2nd halves are somewhat independent events, but there are correlations by scoring patterns. This probably doesnt make a lot of sense, I'm sorry I have to be so vague, but I dont necessarily consider the full game line to be accurate in a lot of events, accuracy and profitability are two different things.
