Nfl 2018-2019

[OnTheHop]

Last few years have not been good in the NFL. For each play I will do my best to give a 1-2 sentence explanation of why I am playing it. Full disclosure, that is not the extent of my research and capping but no one wants to read a novel. Good luck to all this season!


9/6/2018 (0-0, +0.00)

Atlanta Falcons 2H PK (+105), 1 unit: Never thought my first play of the NFL season would be a halftime play. Like the way the Falcons are moving the ball. Now they just need to finish. Trust the Atlanta defense and special teams more than the Eagles.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/9/2018 (0-1, -1.00)

Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Big Ben on the road without Bell is not a recipe for success. Browns have weapons on offense and a nice game manager in Taylor. Happy to get more than a FG in what should be a low scoring game in brutal conditions.

Minnesota Vikings -6 (-120), 2 units: The Niners will be improved but they're a little overhyped. Jimmy G did his damage against 4 bad teams and a Rams team that rested everyone. McKinnon's injury is a killer as well. Vikings should be as good as they were on D last year and even better with Cousins. Interested to see what Cousins will do with so many weapons around him. Will he be a game manager or will they let him throw it?

New York Giants +3 (-120), 2 units: Bortles on the road without any receivers getting blitzed all day. Tough to lay points in that situation even with the Jags D. Giants have a lot of options on offense and I'm happy to get a FG with the home team.

Denver Broncos -3 (-105), 1 unit: I don't love the Broncos but the Seahawks have nothing. No defense. No O line. They've never been the same team on the road as they are at home. Simply more weapons for the home team.

Carolina Panthers -3 (+100), 1 unit: Both teams can run the ball but I don't see how Dallas throws it. Interested to see how Carolina uses Newton and I expect them to utilize McCaffrey a lot more than last year. Carolina's secondary is soft but Dallas doesn't have the weapons to expose them.

Houston Texans +6 (-110), 1 unit: Texans are healthy (for at least 10 minutes) which gives them better WRs and more options on offense and a better defense. Watson certainly doesn't measure up to Brady but he showed he is a star in the making and can keep Houston in the game.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-130), 1 unit: Luck is back but he still can't throw the ball more than 20 yards. Look for Green and Ross to run free in the Colts secondary all day. Mixon should have his way in space as well. Colts O line is as porous as they come and if they get behind the chains Luck is in a lot of trouble.

Arizona Cardinals -1.5 (-110), 1 unit: New QBs in this one with solid receiving corps. For me the difference is that the Cardinals have a reliable running game against a run defense while the Skins have a suspect run game against a solid defense.

 

[HacheMan]

Good stuff...GL OTH

 

[OnTheHop]

​Chicago Bears +7 (-120), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks HM. Greatly appreciated!

 

[OnTheHop]

9/10/2018 (5-4-1, +0.40)

New York Jets +7 (-120), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Los Angeles Rams -6 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

9/13/2018 (7-4-1, +2.40)

Baltimore Ravens PICK (-110), 1 unit: Hate the idea of going against the home team on a short week but I cannot get past the fact that the Bengals were outgained by Indy. That doesn’t bode well for their O or their D. If Luck gets them in the end zone instead of a turnover that goes the other way for six at the end of the game the Ravens are favored by 2-3 here. I’ll go against my normal home team on a short week play to grab the better team not giving any points.

 

[indiana]

Hop...…..on them with you.....BOL buddy...…...indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks indy....hope all is well.

9/16/2018 (7-5-1, +1.30)

Houston Texans -3 (-105), 1 unit: Whether its Mariota or Gabbert I have no idea who he is going to throw to or how the Titans are going to run the ball. Texans have enough weapons to move the ball even in back to back road games.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Home Pittsburgh is very different than road Pittsburgh. Chiefs might have the worst D in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins +3 (-125), 1 unit: Darnold saw no pressure whatsoever last week. Now he's on a quick turnaround against a very tough D line.

Arizona Cardinals +14 (-120), 1 unit: Double digits against a team on a short week. OK, I'll take it.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 (-110), 1 unit: I don't think Fournette sees the field and I don't think it matters. Jags are one of the few teams that can stick their D out there and shut down New England.

 

[OnTheHop]

New York Giants +3 (-115), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Miami Dolphins +3 (+100), 1 unit: Adding a unit to the above play at a better number. Clearly I misread the line movement.

 

[OnTheHop]

Minnesota Vikings -1 (-110), 1 unit: Really thought Vikings would get points with Rodgers news but I held out as long as I could and it never happened.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/17/2018 (9-10-1, -1.30)

Chicago Bears -4 (-115), 1 unit

 

[HacheMan]

Best of luck

 

[OnTheHop]

Thanks HM!

9/20/2018 (10-10-1, -.30)

Cleveland Browns -3 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

9/23/2018 (11-10-1, +0.70)

Houston Texans -6 (-115), 1 unit
San Francisco 49ers +6 (-110), 2 units
Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-110), 1 unit
Seattle Seahawks PK (-110), 1 unit

Ties push: Eagles -.5/Patriots -1 (-120), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

New Orleans Saints 1H +.5 (-115), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

9/27/2018 (13-14-1, -1.65)

Minnesota Vikings +7 (-120), 2 units: Huge overreaction to the Minnesota loss last week. Rams secondary is decimated with injuries and I expect the Vikings to take advantage. Feels like a FG game.

 

[OnTheHop]

9/30/2018 (13-14-2, -2.95....had to correct my record from last week, bad math)

New England Patriots -6.5 (-110), 1 unit: Circle the wagons game for Pats against a Miami team that has played a favorable schedule.
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Too many injuries on D for the Falcons. Bengals can trade points with them in what feels like a FG game.
Chicago Bears -3 (-105), 1 unit: I'll take good D at home over good O. Fitz has Jameis looking over his shoulder. Bears control game with the run and let their D work.
Tennessee Titans +3 (-105), 1 unit: Same as above. Good D and running game at home versus good O. Give me the D, home team and points.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Cards D is better than most think, they've just been on the field too much, good matchup against Seattle O line.. Rosen gives the O a chance.
Oakland Raiders -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Coming into a home game against the Jets is very different than going to Oakland. Browns have been living on turnovers.
New York Giants +3 (+100), 1 unit: Saints D is too porous to be giving points on road against an improving Giants O.
Green Bay Packers -2.5/Jacksonville Jaguars PK (-110), 1.5 units