Nfl 2009

TomGshotput · Sep 13, 2009

Going to keep score here

Guarantee I won't lose more than I bet. And with a lot of luck I just may break even

Week 1
Only real play Atlanta -4 $105 to win $100
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Not much opinion on these, just playing numbers, not the teams
Jets +14.5, Washington +17 and San Francisco +17 $55 to win $50
Indianapolis -2.5 and Kansas City +20 $50 to win $51
Tampa +3 first half $21 to win $20
Cleveland +3 first half $20 to win $16
Buffalo Money Line $10 to win $55
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Futures: Minnesota under 9.5, San Francisco over 7 and AFC -3 in the Super Bowl, $200 each
A few on SF to win NFC $2 to win $56 and Super Bowl $8 to win $528 -- or something like that

TomGshotput · Sep 15, 2009

+ $84

Locking in New England at -3.5 at 5D $103 to win $100

TomGshotput · Sep 17, 2009

Dallas -2.5

Since the start of 2007 the Giants have had more success than any other team in the league. But in the NFL things revert to the mean real quick. Last year Cowboys was near the bottom in interception rates both for and against, while the Giants were near the top. That is the one stat that almost always balances out

Dallas was better at both offensive and defensive efficiency

Like this play a lot and would take the Boys -2.5 at a neutral site. Still only one unit ($100)

Strong lean on San Diego, with Baltimore travelling from the eastcoast to the west

TomGshotput · Sep 18, 2009

All the Bears had to do was not have Cutler throw four interceptions and they would have won on the road against a good team. Now they are a home dog. In week two, you still have to look back to 2008 stats

Steelers have been very lucky that Roethlisberger's fumbling addiction hasn't cost them too much. Bears were simply unlucky to lose 13 of 19, cost them from being a legitimate 10 win team

Pittsburgh offense was marginally better than Chicago, the defense was truly great. But Chicago defense was very good and again simply unlucky to give up 30 redzone TDs

So why I am being such a pussy and not simply taking Chicago +3?

Chicago +10
San Francisco +7.5
Houston +15
$50 to win $70