Next Sunday's early line fumbles

[bradyisgod]

These are just some thoughts on next weekends games. After the Jets line this weekend, I realized I need to be hopping on these games sooner. At one point it was at +10 and that was an insane amount of value for any serious bettor. If anything stands out or seems funny to me early in the week I'm just going to take it. I'm using bookmaker for favorites and bovada for dogs. Bovada seems to run a point higher on dogs than most, so I usually only use it for that. Bookmaker usually has the best lines that I can find for favorites.

Jets -1 @ Raiders

Why is this line a point vs. Oakland? Sure, Oakland played a weak Chargers team, but the Jets are much better. Home field at OAK is not worth that much. I'll take arguably the best defense in the league (along with Denver) even if my QB sucks. Fitzpatrick is playing good this year, too. This line seems funny and I expect it to just shoot up. A point seems like too much value with no huge injuries unless I missed something. You have to remember that Brandon Marshall dropped the ball near the in zone, or in it, or this game is tied up vs. the defending super bowl champs AT home. I'm all over it.

Vikings -2 @ Bears

Seems too low. Bears are terrible. No need for a write up. Adrian Peterson is playing great. I'll take the better team.

Green Bay -2.5 @ Denver

Another line that just looks too low. Denver has the best defense in the league which is the only reason I'm going ML. Public probably will ride high on the Broncos at home but the Packers should smoke them. I think you'd be fine taking the 2.5 here. When two good teams play I just money line. The Broncos should not be undefeated right now. They have had quite a few lucky breaks and Manning of this year doesn't look like the Manning of years past. I'll take the edge and put my money in Rodgers hands here.


I'm already on all three of these plays. These lines just strike me as off. Just my opinions on the early lines posted for next weekend. I fully expect every one of these lines to move up and would be willing to bet money that at least 2/3 do (with Denver being the least likely, but it's still gonna happen). I don't bet the playoffs normally unless the line looks wrong so I'll be going hard for the next few weeks. I'm experimenting with taking the juice at 3 and 7 (a lot less on 7) and money lining a few more bets than usual this year. It seems to be working well. BOL on MNF!

 

[sdf]

Oak is a much better team TY. Good QB play, good WRs, good RB and their defense isnt as craptacular as usual. Better coaching seems to help. Jets obviously playing much better than recent years as well. Jets off a huge deflating loss against their rivals and now traveling cross country to play a team they really dont care about. Could be a let down spot perhaps.

GB....i got suckered in. -2.5 was too low for me.

Vikings...b2b travel and Bears off a bye. Another line that seems too low though. Chi not much HFA and Minny defense is much better.

 

[bradyisgod]

All lines moving up on bookmaker. Jets line up a full point. Vikings and GB both up half a point. I'll update this next weekend for a total.

 

[bradyisgod]

Oak is a much better team TY. Good QB play, good WRs, good RB and their defense isnt as craptacular as usual. Better coaching seems to help. Jets obviously playing much better than recent years as well. Jets off a huge deflating loss against their rivals and now traveling cross country to play a team they really dont care about. Could be a let down spot perhaps.

GB....i got suckered in. -2.5 was too low for me.

Vikings...b2b travel and Bears off a bye. Another line that seems too low though. Chi not much HFA and Minny defense is much better.

I agree with most of it. Don't really agree with them not caring about Oakland because trust me they care and they will be giving it 100%. The Jets have a lot to be happy about including their record. They just played a superbowl team on the road and were within a touchdown all game. Brandon Marshall had a key drop for an easy TD right on the in-zone or that game ends up tied. That's a huge deal. I know you can say that about a lot of plays, but I'm saying it to prove a point on how close the game was. Oakland isn't going to perform like that on the road against NE in my opinion. NE could be the best team, if not top 3, the franchise has ever seen. Jets backers should be watching that game closely and licking their chops when the line looks too low against any other team. As far as Oakland in concerned, they are BETTER this year but they are not in the Jets league IMO. A point is too low and the line should start at 3. This is the best I've seen the Jets look in a long time. These are just my opinions from watching both teams this year. I'm not taking anything away from OAK, they look good too.

 

[powerz]

Jets - Oak was PK in the Spring

Jets have improved by 5 in PR and Oakland By 4 - Opening at -1 was spot on based on the team play in season

FYI Pinny Opened NYJ -2.5 and have moved them down to -1.5

GL

 

[bradyisgod]

Jets - Oak was PK in the Spring

Jets have improved by 5 in PR and Oakland By 4 - Opening at -1 was spot on based on the team play in season

FYI Pinny Opened NYJ -2.5 and have moved them down to -1.5

GL

Thanks. My ratings for the lines are a bit different than what the books list the teams at, especially in this match-up. I'm not surprised that Jets were a PK with them at the beginning of the year. Not sure anyone expected the Jets to look this good - or at least not me. GL this weekend!

 

[bradyisgod]

Woops ignore my last post. Going to re-post the edited version. 5 minute limit walked away from my computer.

Thanks. My ratings for the lines are a bit different than what the books list the teams at, especially in this match-up. I'm not surprised that Jets were a PK with them at the beginning of the year. Not sure anyone expected the Jets to look this good - or at least not me. It did open at -2.5 Jets, but moving it to -1 is too low IMO. I'm aware that most books probably think the line is between 1 and 2. I think I'm giving the Jets more credit than the books are after last game (I've watched the pats/jets rivalry a lot, that game means quite a bit in terms of my rankings). Still sticking with my original gut instinct which is that the line should be -3. Possibly between -2.5 and -3 based on my rankings.

The line for me is -2 on bookmaker and Bovada. Next time I'll include the opening line. My post was just geared toward the current line and how I expect it to move. GL this weekend!

 

[gqdavek1]

I completely agree with all of the games. Those lines just don't make sense. Lets hope that they don't move too much, and we can all take advantage of it... BOL!!!

 

[indiana]

B/G............BOL with this week ends action............nice thought pattern.............indy

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Note on NYJ... 2nd straight road game and traveling x-country after tough battle for 1st place in division at NE. Let down possible. OAK didnt need to go far last week. Stayed in Cali. Bookmakers may be taking this into account?

 

[woodypaige]

Just thought you might want to know. Every team that comes off their bye week has cover this year.
This weeks play Bears, Bengals. Broncos are playing the Packers

 

[bradyisgod]

Just thought you might want to know. Every team that comes off their bye week has cover this year.
This weeks play Bears, Bengals. Broncos are playing the Packers

That's a nice statistic. Thanks.

 

[rozario173]

so this stat doesn't apply to packers and broncos as both were on a bye?

 

[Slurve~Ball]

so this stat doesn't apply to packers and broncos as both were on a bye?

Maybe game will push?