This is from an article in covers, back in week 3. The part in red
I am not a huge fan of trends or system plays, but occassionally I see one thats too sweet to ignore.
"One of my favorite Monday Night plays involves home teams returning off back-to-back road games. That's because, since 1980, teams in this situation are 54-36-1 ATS (against the spread) – or 60 percent ATS on the blind. But when you add one more factor, those numbers get even better.
Play on any NFL Monday night home team off back-to-back road games versus an opponent coming off a home game. When you follow that criteria, the record improves to 39-20-1 ATS. Better yet, make sure you are playing on a worthy team (win percentage greater than .400) and we improve those numbers to 32-13-1 ATS.
Best of all, put the worthy home team up against an opponent off a division home game and we soar to new heights, going 20-3-1 ATS.
Here is the list of teams that fall into this sweet spot this 2008 NFL season: 9/29 Pittsburgh, 10/13 Cleveland, 10/20 New England, 11/10 Arizona, 11/24 New Orleans, 12/1 Houston and 12/8 Chicago.
Mark down the dates now."
The first 3, this year: Pit, Cle and NE........
Week 4....Pitt-5 vs Bal, Pit wins 23-20, but ats loss
Week 6....Cle+8 vs NYG, Cle wins su 35-14. This was the game that rekindled my inerest.
Week 7.....NE-3 vs Den, NE wins 34-7
This week we have Arz-9.5 vs SF. I think Arz, playing at home will stomp SF. In their last 5 games SF's opponents have scored 34, 29, 40, 30 and 31. While scoring 13, 17, 26, 21 and 17.
In those 5 games, SF averages -14, a 2 td defecit!!! Scoring 18.8 and giving up 32.8.
Arz went into SL and whipped them 34-14, and SL is a better team than SF. This is the same SL team that in October, logged ats wins @ Was, vs Dal and @ NE, beating Dal and Was su.
I'm going to play it, ats or in a teaser, after I see the injury reports.
I am not a huge fan of trends or system plays, but occassionally I see one thats too sweet to ignore.
"One of my favorite Monday Night plays involves home teams returning off back-to-back road games. That's because, since 1980, teams in this situation are 54-36-1 ATS (against the spread) – or 60 percent ATS on the blind. But when you add one more factor, those numbers get even better.
Play on any NFL Monday night home team off back-to-back road games versus an opponent coming off a home game. When you follow that criteria, the record improves to 39-20-1 ATS. Better yet, make sure you are playing on a worthy team (win percentage greater than .400) and we improve those numbers to 32-13-1 ATS.
Best of all, put the worthy home team up against an opponent off a division home game and we soar to new heights, going 20-3-1 ATS.
Here is the list of teams that fall into this sweet spot this 2008 NFL season: 9/29 Pittsburgh, 10/13 Cleveland, 10/20 New England, 11/10 Arizona, 11/24 New Orleans, 12/1 Houston and 12/8 Chicago.
Mark down the dates now."
The first 3, this year: Pit, Cle and NE........
Week 4....Pitt-5 vs Bal, Pit wins 23-20, but ats loss
Week 6....Cle+8 vs NYG, Cle wins su 35-14. This was the game that rekindled my inerest.
Week 7.....NE-3 vs Den, NE wins 34-7
This week we have Arz-9.5 vs SF. I think Arz, playing at home will stomp SF. In their last 5 games SF's opponents have scored 34, 29, 40, 30 and 31. While scoring 13, 17, 26, 21 and 17.
In those 5 games, SF averages -14, a 2 td defecit!!! Scoring 18.8 and giving up 32.8.
Arz went into SL and whipped them 34-14, and SL is a better team than SF. This is the same SL team that in October, logged ats wins @ Was, vs Dal and @ NE, beating Dal and Was su.
I'm going to play it, ats or in a teaser, after I see the injury reports.
