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2024 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11 11/12/24 – 11/18/24
OFFICIAL LINES/ODDS FOR WEEK 11	WEEK 11 PICKS BY # OF TEAMS SELECTED
HOME TEAM IN CAPS EAGLES -3.5 vs. Commanders Packers -5 vs. BEARS SAINTS -1 vs. Browns Rams -4.5 vs. PATRIOTS Ravens -3 vs. STEELERS DOLPHINS -7 vs. Raiders LIONS -14 vs. Jaguars Vikings -6 vs. TITANS 49ERS-6.5 vs. Seahawks BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Falcons BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs CHARGERS -1.5 vs. Bengals NY JETS -4 vs. Colts Texans -7 vs. COWBOYS	CLE 393 GB 379 CIN 359 DEN 324 PIT 317 KC 281 BUF 240 IND 227 LAR 216 MIA 209 BAL 205 ATL 203 LAC 193 DET 187 HOU 172 SF 171 TOP 5 YTD RECORD 22-27-1	MIN 171 SEA 168 TEN 166 NE 156 NO 146 JAX 135 DAL 111 CHI 100 PHI 89 LV 82 NYJ 81 WAS 54 TB 0 ARI 0 NYG 0 CAR 0 RECORD LAST WEEK 2-3
TOP 10 SUPERCONTEST PLAYER PICKS AND STANDING
MAYBE TOMORROW 4 – W35 L14 LW 4-1 Week 11 Picks: GB NO LV ATL IND 2ND AND 20 – W34 L14 LW 3-2 Week 11 Picks: NO LV TEN SEA HOU TA2 RG – W34 L15 LW 4-1 Week 11 Picks: MIA DET SF DEN IND MEYER LANDSCAPING – W34 L15 LW 2-3 Week 11 Picks: PHI GB NO MIA DEN RAIDERNATION 2 – W34 L15 LW 2-3 Week 11 Picks: WAS BAL MIA ATL IND

BuzzKill · Nov 19, 2024

Recap

Gold Sheet November 21-25.pdf

drive.google.com

Goldiron Gold Sheet NCAAF Week 13.pdf

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Pointwise November 23.pdf

drive.google.com

username_ · Nov 19, 2024

PLAYBOOK EARLIES

Tuesday, Nov 19

Western Michigan over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 10
The Broncos have gone from unbeaten in the conference to a tie for first to looking up at the MAC standings after two straight losses. A date with their bitterest rival in Central Michigan should make WMU well again. A trip to the conference title game is out of the question, but a sixth win and bowl eligibility following last year’s rough four-win season would be a treat sweeter than what you can find at Kalamazoo’s legendary Sweetwater Donuts. Western is 6-0 ATS in the series when they are the visitor, while Da Chippers are 1-5 ATS in the last six games of the series and an equally dismal 1-6 ATS as the dog in their final home game. It also may be the final game for Jim McElwain at Central, which could open the door for the Mount Pleasant return of…Brian Kelly. What do you think the LSU crowd is going to accept this season gracefully?

Akron over KENT STATE by 5
What? No GameDay, or whatever the name of the Fox show is? If it were up to us, this game would be the Saturday ABC Prime Time game with Fowler and Herbstreit, rules experts in the booth, and pylon cameras everywhere. Akron’s two wins are 200% better than what Kent is dragging in. The opening line on this game was Kent minus 8.5, and it is now Akron -10, so as the incredibly irritating phrase goes, “If you know, you know.” Are we being sentimental about the Golden Grahams? No, just the facts, ma’am. Akron is 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight games and 5-15 ATS as conference road chalk. The Zips have beaten Colgate and Eastern Michigan, a win where Akron was outgained by nearly 300 yards. This bus trip rivalry sees Kent surprisingly competitive; they have cashed five straight tickets using the revenge card in this series. The revenge card is well-worn but may have one last use in it before getting tossed in the trash for good. Plus, Kent’s on a roll these days; last week against Miami, they had their first lead of the season when they jumped out 7-0 in the first quarter. You know the rest. Yes, Herbstreit’s private jet can land at the Akron-Canton airport, so give us a good reason why this game can’t be flexed off a network with no ratings.

Northern Illinois over MIAMI-OHIO by 6
Miami is one of three tied atop the MAC standings, fighting for two spots in the title game. Northern can’t make Detroit, but they can make Bowling Green and Ohio happy with a win. A RedHawks win means they could settle the score with BG next week. The Falcons have a Saturday date with Ball State. Defense will likely be the name of the game here; these teams rank 1-2 for the fewest points given up in the MAC all season (NIU 185, Miami 187). Northern must contend with the RedHawks' Social Security collecting QB in Brett Gabbert and slow top RB Keyon Mozee. We quickly remind you that NIU has already spoiled Western Michigan’s chances for the title game and the Huskies are 6-0 SUATS as a dog of six or fewer when facing a team with a winning record. That is tempting enough but then sprinkle on THE MIDWEEK ALERT, which hands NIU the coveted acronym “BOD,” which is better on offense and defense. Again, we quote Frank Sinatra, who once sang the lyric, “Pardon my mush, but I’ve got a crush on Northern.” Not sure what album that one is on.

Wednesday, Nov 20

Ohio over TOLEDO by 3
The Rockets’ last shot at first place will be taken in Athens with Toledo a game out of the three-way tie. Since becoming Ohio's head coach, Tim Albin is 9-1 on MACtion nights. Ohio is a part of the MAC Trifecta atop the standings, but the oddsmakers are going with the Glass Bowl edge here. THE Ohio University is 11-2 ATS as a dog if favored in the prior game and 9-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win. All Jason Candle’s men can offer is a burnt-out 2-9 ATS when coming off a conference home game and a weak 3-16-1 ATS coming off a win and next facing a team .500 or better. Ohio QB Parker Navarro has overcome his 7 TD 8 INT season with nine rushing scores, which thrusts THE MIDWEEK ALERT into overdrive, reminding us all that Ohio has the “BOD” advantage on Toledo, whose heart of glass may be shattered, shattered, sha dooby shattered, shattered all over the Glass Bowl.

EASTERN MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 6
Buffy slayed their last two opponents despite being outgained in both wins and nailed down Bull eligibility with win #6. Eastern (5-5) hasn’t reached that lofty goal yet, and in front of their “crowd” in Ypsilanti, they should be bringing more passion than Buffalo. The key to the game is whether EMU can keep talented QB Cole Snyder from a near-certain death. Snyder has been sacked 28 times in 2024 and has still completed 60% of his passes with a 12:6 TD/INT ratio and had the strength to run for four touchdowns. The Eagles are 3-0 SUATS in their last home games against winning teams, while Buffalo is 1-11 ATS in its last dozen Tuesday-Wednesday shows. We are also unimpressed with Da Bulls being 2-10 ATS when both teams are coming off a home game. We have not forgotten about the Green Team from The Gray Field losing three straight. Still, with Buffalo already assured of another game and Eastern needing a win, we will side with the more desperate, fierce, furious, dire, and critical team tonight. Thank you thesauras.com.

Thursday, Nov 21

3* BEST BET
NC State over Georgia Tech by 3
No faith in the recent conquerors of previously unbeaten Miami? Nope. Tech has been a wreck when coming off a game like that, going 2-9 ATS as the favorite when they were a dog in the last game. Worse, beating Miami seems to send Ga. Tech into a stupor, going 0-5-1 ATS at home in games following a win over the Hurricanes. Should we even mention that Tech has rival Georgia next? It is one of those rivalries where one school is angry while the larger, more famous one acts like it doesn’t have time for the other team. Georgia fans will list Florida, Auburn, and Clemson long before they remember Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack are among the many 5-5 teams needing that one more win for a bowl game, and they have a 9-2 ATS mark in ACC games vs. a team coming off an ACC tilt. Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey has six TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts. We’re doubling down on the Raleigh Gang with a one-two punch combination that, unlike the Tyson-Paul “fight,” will actually land. First, THE SMART BOX with a straight right hand on Page 3, followed by the vicious left hook we call THE CLINCHER, which points out NCSU is 24-5 ATS with rest in conference play since 1997, and that includes a hefty 11-1 SUATS, versus .600 or worse opponents. Even a Las Vegas boxing judge can see a clear-cut unanimous decision here.

mendozaline · Nov 19, 2024

Newsletter Tracking (through 11/18/2024)

The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking. There’s no reason to keep track of every bottom-tier or “recommended” play; it’s not worth the work.

Sometimes the newsletters will cheat a little by claiming a different common or later line if it turns a loss into a push or otherwise boosts their record. I’ll usually be able to note what happened to explain the discrepancy.

I’ll also highlight particularly good or bad weekends or short-term runs. I will not include picks from newsletter issues that we don’t get in time.

Starting to color-code the hottest and coldest records. Usually just anything hitting/missing around 70% or more with a reasonable sample.

Gridiron Gold Sheet (records represent 9 issues total)
NCAA (23-28-0)
NFL (20-18-1)

Bondi Bulletin
2* NCAA (5-4-1)
1* NCAA (12-15-2)
2* NFL (4-4-1)
1* NFL (7-11-0) (also fixed error, numbers now correct)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (6-6-0)
4* (8-4-0)
3* (7-5-0)
Upset pick (7-5-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-5-1)
Awesome Angle (9-4-0)
Incredible Stat (3-8-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (0-3 overall this week)
5* (6-5-0)
4* (4-7-0)
3* (4-7-0)

Pointwise NCAA (lost their top 6 picks this week)
1* (13-10-1)
2* (7-5-0)
3* (6-6-0)
4* (12-12-0)
5* (13-11-0)

Pointwise NFL (4-1 overall, their best week of the season)
3* (2-9-0) (won this week with Minn -6.5)
4* (8-13-1)
5* (9-12-1)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (8-4-0)
3* (15-9-0)
2* (11-11-2)
Underdog Play of the Week (6-6-0)
Tech Play of the Week (4-3-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (7-4-0)
Situational Play of the Week (6-4-0)
Series Play of the Week (2-6-0)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (5-6-0)
3* (4-7-0)
2* (8-3-0)
3* o/u play (7-4-0)
Power Rating POW (5-4-0)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (20-13-0)
NCAA 4* (37-35-3)
NFL 4* (5-6-0)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (8-16-0)
88* (24-12-1)
NFL 88* (5-5-1)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (18-18-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (8-13-1)

Winning Points (0-4 overall this week)
NCAA 4* (4-6-0)
NCAA 3* (4-6-0)
NFL 4* (4-5-0)
NFL 3* (4-4-1)

King’s Totals Tipsheet (1-4 overall for the 2nd-straight week)
3* (4-5-0)
2* (9-14-0)
1* (1-0-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (0-4-0)
1* (10-8-0)

Gold Sheet NCAA
Key Releases (6-16-1)
Priority Picks (8-9-0)
Tech Plays (9-6-0)

Gold Sheet NFL
Key Releases (12-7-1)
Priority Picks (2-9-0)
Tech Plays (7-6-1)

Powers' Ratings NCAA
(can't really track his main plays this year)
Top Computer Play (5-7-0)

Powers' Ratings NFL
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)

Inside the Press Box NCAA
Phil's Best Bets (20-24-1) (includes 1-10-1 the last four weeks)
Computer Best Bets (25-18-0)

Inside the Press Box NFL
Phil’s Best Bets (11-19-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)

Feel free to point out any typos or grading errors

BuzzKill · Nov 19, 2024

Recap

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