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Let's go Brandon!
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PLAYBOOK: Tue (too late now) through Thu

LIBERTY over Florida International by 24

In the Beginning, the TV Networks created football seven days a week…and it was good. We wave the green flag on the nightly football craze with this Conference USA matchup featuring a Liberty team that had an unwanted bye vs. App State, thanks to the destruction of Helene. FIU has named their stadium after Pitbull and will be featuring “Miami Vice” uniforms later this month. Perhaps this is a diversionary tactic to keep your eyes trained on something other than FIU football. The Panthers are also playing shorthanded in the receiving corps, forcing a down lineman to play tight end until two regulars are healthy. During the “Born in the USA” Era, teams that are dogs of 17 or more points are 40-64-4 ATS when facing an unbeaten team, including 17-33-1 ATS when coming off a win. Liberty boasts a heavenly 26-2 SU and 17-8 ATS mark during the first half of the season (through game sixes) and 15-3 ATS in games where they surrender 22.5 or fewer PPG. Time to play an oldie, Marc’s “Ruby Tuesday” from 2010’s Black Book, which says regular season road teams coming off a SUATS win (FIU beat La. Tech last week) are just 4-14 SU and 7-11 ATS since 2000 including 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS dating back to 2017. If ‘Til Tuesday had Tuesday Weld sing Ruby Tuesday, we would have Marc’s Tuesday Trifecta. For now, Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday.

JACKSONVILLE STATE over New Mexico State by 24
Rich Rodriguez’s JSU Gamecocks were cruising to a 10-win season last year until they ran into another team on its way to 10 wins, New Mexico State, who stiffed the Cocks 20-17. NMS wound up with 10 wins for the first time since 1960. JSU ended with nine W’s. 2024 hasn’t been kind to either team; JSU started 0-3 on the scoreboard and in the stats sheets before a dramatic turnaround in back-to-back wins, outscoring foes 107-31. The Aggies are 1-4 and have been outgained by an average of 190 yards per game. This doesn’t seem like that’s going to change Wednesday in Alabama, particularly when we tell you that in the very short time the Gamecocks have been in FBS, they are 2-0 SUATS when favored by double-digits with both wins by 39 points. To paraphrase Peter Griffin, “we may be idiots sir, but one thing we are not, are idiots.”

JAMES MADISON over Coastal Carolina by 3
The Mad Men got to be part of the college football glitterati, joining the likes of Notre Dame, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss as double-digit favorite WTF losers this season. Louisiana-Monroe stunned J. Mad despite the Dukes outgaining them by 141 yards. The first meetings between CCU and JMU have not been pretty, as the Chanticleers were beheaded by the Dukes 56-14 and 47-7. What makes this year’s edition different are the facts ma’am, just the facts. The Facts of Life say 4-1 teams in game six, coming off a loss, are only 8-10 SU and 7-11 ATS when hosting .800 or greater teams, including 2-8 ATS when owning a defense that gives up more than 17 PPG. Meanwhile, all CCU does is win, now 39-12 over the past four plus years, including 4-1 this season. Give the Chants points at your own risk because CCU is 12-5 ATS when on the take, including 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS when trying to John Wick, their opponent. No, running around like a chicken with your head cut off at the sportsbook; just take aim at the Carolina Coast.

LOUSIANA TECH over Middle Tennessee State by 8
The Blue Raiders are turning into a middle-of-the-highway sinkhole, already 1-4 this season after 4-8 in 2023. Last year, they were occasionally respectable, losing the stats battle by three yards per game. This year, it’s -100 net yards. Despite being 1-3, the Techsters are winning the numbers game by an average of 27 YPG, thanks to a stiff defense ranked 24th in FBS, giving up 299.5 yards per game. MTSU knocked off the Bulldogs last year, but the harsh blue spotlight of truth shines in the eyes of the Blue Raiders, who are godawful when hitting the road against teams seeking vengeance, going 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in that role. Toss in Terry Bradshaw’s alma mater being 6-1 ATS in revenge games when coming off a loss. We often quote philosopher Gilles Deleuze around the water cooler, and he reminds us, “The spirit of revenge is the principle on which our whole psychology depends.” All this time, you thought Gilles Deleuze was the backup goalie on the 1989 Quebec Nordiques.

WESTERN KENTUCKY over Utep by 16
Handicapping rules, which may or may not have been hanging in the Cincinnati Reds’ clubhouse when Pete Rose managed (RIP Charley Hustle), dictate that you do not lay points with bad defenses. Amazingly, we’re not talking about the winless Miners but the Hilltoppers, whose defense you will have to spend some time scrolling down the list until you get to the 97th ranking. Miners coach Scotty Walden is playing the “we’re getting better one game at a time” card. The UTEP media bragged about a run game that posted 119 yards on 34 carries, a 3.5 per rush average. This tells us Walden isn’t playing with a full deck, literally and figuratively, but maybe they can unlock a 4.0-per-rush average against the leaky WKU defense. The Hilltoppers had Boston College on the run into the fourth quarter two weeks ago, but to no one’s surprise, the defense gave out late, and BC eked out a win. There are other golden handicapping numbers here, such as UTEP being 7-1 ATS since 1990 against teams coming off three straight ATS wins, plus WKU being 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 20 or fewer when coming off a bye. Follow the golden rules: Do for yourself what you want others to do for you.
 

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Appreciate your hard work and effort Mendoza, BUT, I bet on Power Sweeps Revenge Play and lost. ULL only won by 10. 5-0 record should be 4-1.
You are correct. Thanks for pointing it out. I played that one myself, but still misread my own scribble on the sheet :)

Double-checking didn't even catch it lol

I'll fix it.
 

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Newsletter Tracking (through 10/07/2024)

The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking. There’s no reason to keep track of every bottom-tier or “recommended” play; it’s not worth the work.

Sometimes the newsletters will cheat a little by claiming a different common or later line if it turns a loss into a push or otherwise boosts their record. I’ll usually be able to note what happened to explain the discrepancy. A lot of letters had a pick on the Ravens/Bengals game, and most used + or - 2.5 points. Only the Gold Sheet got the push with Baltimore -3.

I’ll also highlight particularly good or bad weekends or short-term runs. I will not include picks from newsletter issues that we don’t get in time.

Starting to color-code the hottest and coldest records this week.



Gridiron Gold Sheet (3rd week we've gotten it this season)
NCAA (6-10-0)
NFL (6-6-0)

Bondi Bulletin
2* NCAA (2-2-1)
1* NCAA (7-7-0)
2* NFL (3-1-0)
1* NFL (3-5-0)

CKO
11* (0-0-0)
10* (0-0-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (5-1-0)
4* (4-2-0)
3* (3-3-0)
Upset pick (2-4-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (1-3-1)
Awesome Angle (4-2-0)
Incredible Stat (1-2-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (3-2-0)
4* (2-3-0)
3* (2-3-0)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (8-4-0)
2* (2-4-0)
3* (4-2-0)
4* (6-6-0)
5* (7-5-0)

Pointwise NFL (1-4 overall this week)
3* (1-4-0)
4* (3-6-1)
5* (1-9-0)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (4-2-0)
3* (8-4-0)
2* (6-5-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (4-2-0)
Tech Play of the Week (2-2-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-1-0)
Situational Play of the Week (2-2-0)
Series Play of the Week (2-3-0)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (1-4-0)
3* (0-5-0)
2* (4-1-0)
4* Pro Angle (0-0-0)
3* o/u play (3-2-0)
Power Rating POW (1-3-0)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (10-6-0)
NCAA 4* (21-14-2)
NFL 4* (2-3-0)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (6-6-0)
88* (12-7-0)
NFL 88* (3-2-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (9-7-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (3-6-1)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (3-3-0)
NCAA 3* (4-2-0)
NFL 4* (2-3-0)
NFL 3* (2-2-1)

King’s Totals Tipsheet
3* (1-2-0)
2* (6-6-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (0-3-0)
1* (2-5-0)

Gold Sheet (record represent 3 weeks of NFL picks, 3 weeks of NCAA. No NCAA this week.)
NCAA Key Releases (10-10-0)
NFL Key Releases (8-6-1)

Powers' Ratings NCAA
(can't really track his main plays this year)
Top Computer Play (2-4-0)

Powers' Ratings NFL
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)

Inside the Press Box NCAA
Phil's Best Bets (15-9-0)
Computer Best Bets (13-9-0)

Inside the Press Box NFL
Phil’s Best Bets (4-8-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)
 
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THE RED SHEET

OCTOBER 12, 2024 VOLUME 56 - NUMBER 7

ILLINOIS 44 - Purdue 10 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Illinois minus 20, and is now minus 19½. Hey, we'll take it,
namely the ½ pt move in our direction. Just about every informed fan can figure the main reason for
this selection, & it isn't the underwhelming offense of the Illini, which has posted a season-high of just
31 pts in its OT win at Nebraska. However Illinois keeps finding ways triumph in the battle of the
spread, with its only SU loss of the season, coming in its 21-7 loss to #4 PennSt, holding the Lions to
season-lows in scoring, passing, & rushing. Purdue a 184-44 pt deficit in LGs year, with #120 "D".
RATING: ILLINOIS 89

PITTSBURGH 30 - California 13 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 3½, and is now minus 3. To start with, note
that the host in Panther games was on a 10-1 spread run, before Pitt turned that trend on its ear, with
LW's 7½ pt cover at NoCarolina, with once again doing it behind the passing efforts of Holstein
(transfer from Alabama) who now stands at 313 PYpg & 15/3. The Bears are 7-12 ATS as the dog, &
are in off a 30-13 FD deficit, while ranking 83rd in total offense. As noted earlier, Cal lives by the
turnover, as the Bears rank 3rd in the nation with a +8 margin. With spread at a FG, take advantage.
RATING: PITTSBURGH 89

Boise State 63 - HAWAII 27 - (11:00) -- Line opened at BoiseSt minus 21½, & is now minus 20½. A respected member
of our staff is inordinately consumed by the power of the ½ pt on either side of a TD or FG, & after all
these years, we simply have to agree, especially with the spread on this one being a perfect example,
moving 3 TD spot our way. Whether or not the Warriors need it is another matter. The 17th-ranked
Broncos of Boise, are just a 3-pt loss at Oregon, from SU perfection, & should continue, behind the
weekly exploits of the land's top RB, as Jeanty owns 260 RY edge over his closest competitor. Rout.
RATING: BOISE STATE 88

NEW MEXICO 34 - Air Force 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at New Mexico minus -3½, and is now minus 6½. Never in a
thousand years, did we could imagine the Falcons of Air Force, as a TD dog in this rivalry. The Lobos
have always been a bit sporadic, when it comes to their overland production, but never low enough to
take the field as the chalk vs the flyers. However, things have changed, most notably with the Falcons
as they returned exactly 6 starters from LY's bowl winning campaign, coming from 1st & 2nd in RYs
the past 2 years to TY's 58th & 131st in rushing & total offense, with 96-29 SU pt deficit in L3 gms.
RATING: NEW MEXICO 88

ARMY 70 - Uab 30 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Army minus 24½, and is now minus 25½. Cadets are the 2nd military
outfit to grace this week's publication, altho the reasoning is poles apart, with the Black Knights moving
to the top spot in the nation in rushing (361 RYpg). Army is now on a 7-0 spread run by 132½ pts,
as well as a 128-35 pt edge in its last 3 games. while climbing to the #9 slot in total "D". The Blazers,
on the other hand, have little competition in hurrying to the bottom of the run "D" barrel, where they've
settled at 126th in rushing defense (8th worst), allowing 227 RYpg. Appears huge spot is generous.
RATING: ARMY 88

Detroit 31 - DALLAS 20 - (4:25) -- Line opened at Detroit minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. Well, they're doing it again,
as the Lions are just a 4-pt loss to the Bucs, from arriving here with a perfect slate, something that
would match what Detroit QB Goff did in Lions' Monday win over the Seahawks. He was a spectacular
18-OF-18 for 292 yds, 2 passing TDs, along with a TD catch in that 42-29 win, which keeps the Lions
just a game behind the perfect Vikings, who are on a sweet 8-0 run, SU & ATS, when including the
preseason. Detroit has Minny up next week, therefore cannot afford any letdown of focus. Lion call.
RATING: DETROIT LIONS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BYU, LSU, Tennessee, Western Mich - NFL: Washington, Green Bay, NY Jets

LARGE LINE MOVES: Utah (-3 to -6½); New Mexico (-3½ to -6½); Fla Intl (+20½ to +17½); San Diego St (+½ to -2);
UTSA (-4 to -6); Memphis (-6 to -8); Miss St (+34 to +32); Colorado (+5½ to +4); So Carolina (+22½ to +21); Penn St (-
4 to -5); Army (-24½ to -25½); Bowling Grn (-2 to -3); Stanford (+23½ to +22½); Akron (+9½ to +8½); BYU (-3½ to -4½);
Hawaii (+21½ to +20½); New Mexico St (+21 to +20); UTEP (+20½ to +19½); La Tech (-4 to -5); NFL:Tampa Bay (+2½
to -2½); Atlanta (-4½ to -6½); Indianapolis (+½ to -1); Cleveland (+9½ to +8½); KEY INJURIES: Appalachian St WR
Horn (Und) ??; Arizona St WR McClain (redshirting); BYU WR Epps (Und) Out; Boise St WR Marshall (ankle) Pos-
sible; Calif WR Grayes (Und) ??; WR Merriweather (Und) ??; UConn RB Rosa (finger) ??; Duke RB Moore (leg) ??;
East Carolina RB Bond (Und) ??; Georgia WR Young (legal) ??;Georgia Tech QB Leary (transfer portal); Old
Dominion QB Wilson (Und) ??; Oregon St RB Griffin (Und) ??; Southern Miss QB Crawford (Und) ??; Temple RB
Washington (Und) ??; UCLA WR Flores (Und) ??; QB Garbers (lower leg) Probable; Wyoming RB Jones (personal)
Out; - NFL: Atlanta RB McClellan (illness) ??; Baltimore RB Ali (neck) ??; Cleveland RB Chubb (knee) Out; RB Hines
(knee) Out; RB Strong (hamstring) ??; Denver RB Badie (back) Out; Green Bay WR Watson (ankle) Doubtful; Hous-
ton RB Brooks (knee) Out; RB Mixon (ankle) Out; RB Pierce (hamstring) ??; Indianapolis QB Richardson (oblique) ??;
Las Vegas RB White (groin) Out; Miami QB Thompson (ribs) ??; NY Giants RB Singletary (groin) Doubtful; New
Orleans QB Carr (oblique) ??; RB Miller (hamstring) Doubtful; Pittsburgh RB Warren (knee) Out; Washington QB
Mariota (pectoral) ??; RB Robinson (knee) ??...
 

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