Not going to answer your second question but I'll go for your first one.
Releasing both sides is very difficult in 2023. That said, it's still relatively easy to make bogus claims online. The list is long but a couple examples: A new service, very high price, by either a name handicapper; or a new company can say they did xyz. Generally EARLY in a new service or a new company or a new avatar/handicapper material, it's impossible to prove or disprove the picks.
I've traded picks with some of the bigger names in the game (back in the 80's and also more recently in the 10's ...the 2010's) Nothing since.
My experience was that I have always done well enough (played several super contests, maybe 10, it's all there) and they NEVER did. I traded picks that were being sold for five digits per year. I don't recall anyone picking over 55% in these private exchanges, including me. I've always been good early, and in post season; and frustratingly, not so good after week 9 or 10 (confirm with supercontest historic records).
I have a simple suggestion based on discussions but not facts. I've been TOLD there are plenty of groups going out there to the contests in the 2000's to date in the form of individuals with their own social security number of course but the money is part of the group. HOW? Easy. You get paid it's gambling winnings. You file your 1040 and use schedule C. You pay all your buddies out equally and keep your share, everyone paying their own taxes.
Let's just use 1000 people in the pool and say that the "groups" are 10, 20, 30 people to a group. Now things in 2023 are certainly much bigger.
Once someone gets big, say CC Ballers (I'm NOT saying they did anything wrong at all) they had a lucky year or two, then went on to sell picks and then they fell off my radar. This is just an example.)
Imagine such a group has 20 aliases and one of them does 65% or 70% in circa or westgate. Boom they get their huge payout and it is absolute proof they are gods and now they are revealed. But that's not really how it might be happening in reality. It goes back to Bob's teaching me in the 80's how these....perception changing...seeming proof of excellence, is really no more than having two good seasons out of 20-100 run by a syndicate (i'm making up that name). If 30 people reading this forum teamed up and formed a contractual agreement or even an LLC to split winnings, it is very probable one or two will do quite well in a pool of say 1000.
If your group owns 3% of a pool and you have a 10 tier pay out, you need just a few years to give you a high probability single name that wins. And if you have 50 people, you now have a 5% in the thousand person group to WIN, for example. But it's much higher to win ENOUGH to get great publicity and a big check. If it's random as to whoever wins in the group as it is going to all be equally distributed, and carefully designed, you've got winners (people who place) and you can sell picks for a few years off of that promotional advantage from getting the check, having the name Circa or SuperBook over your head.
The math is irritating and I'll spare you but here's a quickie question: How many people have to be at a party before there is a 50% chance that two have the same birthday?..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................
It's 23. But here is the more important question.
How many have to be in the same room before you have a 99.9% chance of two people having the same birthday?..........................................................
...............................................
..............................seventy five. This isn't exactly the same situation but when you play in the Super Contest as I did for awhile, I realized that you aren't up against 1/1000 you are up against several groups of 20, 30, 40, 50. Yes you could place, but you are statistically meaningless. When you have 50 you can make picks the first several weeks so that you have gone undefeated after week 1 (1/32 must go undefeated by design in week 1). You only need a few "people" to have awesome starts to the season before you have a HUGE advantage going forward to where design is easier and also less important. Now luck will matter but start at 9-1 or 8-2 or 7-3 and you have a significant mathematical edge.
I haven't checked the last five years for pool sizes and rule changes but you can't stop the groups and the groups are how you can make a powerful promo for 2 - 5 years and THAT is where the serious money is made, selling the picks, not because of the placing itself.
I see I went long, I'll give you a few scenarios (if you aren't bored silly) for giving both sides (you can imagine them by now probably) later.................................................................................................................................
Buzzkill. Thank you for the space. I've been here a few years lurking and appreciate your time and work here (and occasional therapy and etiquette lessons you have to give).
KH
PS: No I have ZERO interest in being part of a group. Ever. I have a real job.
drive.google.com
I've been in the industry for 45 yrs lmao ?
