Pointwise 9/25-9/29
Pointwise College Key Releases
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
NFL Key Releases
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
Pointwise College Key Releases
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
NFL Key Releases
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF (11* 2-1-1) (10* 8-5)
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al
Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
“a considerable amount of time,” with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed
3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls
56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his
23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403
yards in the Broncos’ last 3 games. WMU’s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have
produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against
the Owls last week). Temple’s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn’t in good health, either, as four
starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21
Scouts report last week’s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the
Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O’Brien. N.C. State had been
giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell
Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for.
The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on
QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall
10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in “the pits,” is one of the few teams that figures
to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their
O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT
Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when
LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina’s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog
juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB
Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red
Elephants haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban’s tenure.
10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20
Big Ten scouts tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week,
as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working
on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines’ improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame)
to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident,
hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7.
Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top
RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with
Wolverines’ speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home
loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3
FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
NFL:
10 *TAMPA BAY over Green Bay
Late Score Forecast:
*TAMPA BAY 30 - Green Bay 17
Well, maybe replacing Brett Favre isn’t going to be as easy as it first seemed for Aaron Rodgers, who faced some
real pressure for the first time as a starter last week against Dallas, and couldn’t do much damage until outcome
was decided. It isn’t helping Rodgers that Green Bay infantry at less than 100% these days with Ryan Grant
slightly compromised by a sore hamstring. Things won’t get any easier at loud and distracting Raymond James
Stadium, where d.c. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 schemes have frustrated many accomplished QBs (much less one
making only 4th career start). Moreover, must note the leadership rejuvenated vet QB Brian Griese (67 pass
attempts at Chicago!) now providing for Buc offense. Greater accumulation of edges rests with T.B., which
usually takes care of business as home chalk (7-2 last 9 in role).
TOTALS:
OVER (45½) in the Denver-Kansas City game—Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Denver offense (38 ppg) lighting things up with new spread
attack; Broncos have played three straight “overs”...
UNDER (44½) in the Cleveland-Cincinnati game—Cleveland (9 ppg) hurting at receiver; Browns 8-0-
1 “under” last nine games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
NORTHWESTERN (+8) at Iowa—Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat
Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...
OHIO STATE (-18½) vs. Minnesota—Buckeyes
already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...
OKLAHOMA (-18) vs. Tcu—Sooners,
who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam Bradford running OU’s no-huddle offense...
NEW MEXICO STATE (+3½) vs. New Mexico—With Lobos’ Donovan Porterie gone for the season,QB edge in
this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State’s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...
WASHINGTON (+12) at Dallas—Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.
<!-- / message -->
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF (11* 2-1-1) (10* 8-5)
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al
Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
“a considerable amount of time,” with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed
3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls
56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his
23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403
yards in the Broncos’ last 3 games. WMU’s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have
produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against
the Owls last week). Temple’s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn’t in good health, either, as four
starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21
Scouts report last week’s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the
Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O’Brien. N.C. State had been
giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell
Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for.
The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on
QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall
10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in “the pits,” is one of the few teams that figures
to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their
O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT
Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when
LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina’s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog
juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB
Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red
Elephants haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban’s tenure.
10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20
Big Ten scouts tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week,
as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working
on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines’ improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame)
to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident,
hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7.
Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top
RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with
Wolverines’ speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home
loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3
FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
NFL:
10 *TAMPA BAY over Green Bay
Late Score Forecast:
*TAMPA BAY 30 - Green Bay 17
Well, maybe replacing Brett Favre isn’t going to be as easy as it first seemed for Aaron Rodgers, who faced some
real pressure for the first time as a starter last week against Dallas, and couldn’t do much damage until outcome
was decided. It isn’t helping Rodgers that Green Bay infantry at less than 100% these days with Ryan Grant
slightly compromised by a sore hamstring. Things won’t get any easier at loud and distracting Raymond James
Stadium, where d.c. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 schemes have frustrated many accomplished QBs (much less one
making only 4th career start). Moreover, must note the leadership rejuvenated vet QB Brian Griese (67 pass
attempts at Chicago!) now providing for Buc offense. Greater accumulation of edges rests with T.B., which
usually takes care of business as home chalk (7-2 last 9 in role).
TOTALS:
OVER (45½) in the Denver-Kansas City game—Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Denver offense (38 ppg) lighting things up with new spread
attack; Broncos have played three straight “overs”...
UNDER (44½) in the Cleveland-Cincinnati game—Cleveland (9 ppg) hurting at receiver; Browns 8-0-
1 “under” last nine games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
NORTHWESTERN (+8) at Iowa—Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat
Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...
OHIO STATE (-18½) vs. Minnesota—Buckeyes
already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...
OKLAHOMA (-18) vs. Tcu—Sooners,
who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam Bradford running OU’s no-huddle offense...
NEW MEXICO STATE (+3½) vs. New Mexico—With Lobos’ Donovan Porterie gone for the season,QB edge in
this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State’s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...
WASHINGTON (+12) at Dallas—Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.
<!-- / message -->
Power Sweep 9/25-29
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->CFB
4* UNLV
3* LSU
3* Penn State
2* Ohio State
2* North Carolina (+)
2* Auburn
Underdog Play--Michigan
NFL
4* Tennessee
3* Cleveland/Cincy OVER
2* Houston (+)
2* San Francisco (+)
NFL Totals (10-5 so far)
3* Cleveland/Cincy OVER
3* Atlanta/Carolina UNDER
3* Denver/Kansas City OVER
2* Houston/Jacksonville UNDER
2* Minnesota/Tennessee UNDER
Power Rating Play--TENNESSEE
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->CFB
4* UNLV
3* LSU
3* Penn State
2* Ohio State
2* North Carolina (+)
2* Auburn
Underdog Play--Michigan
NFL
4* Tennessee
3* Cleveland/Cincy OVER
2* Houston (+)
2* San Francisco (+)
NFL Totals (10-5 so far)
3* Cleveland/Cincy OVER
3* Atlanta/Carolina UNDER
3* Denver/Kansas City OVER
2* Houston/Jacksonville UNDER
2* Minnesota/Tennessee UNDER
Power Rating Play--TENNESSEE
THE GOLD SHEET - NCAA (9-7) KEY RELEASES- COLLEGE ANALYSIS
LOUISVILLE by 14 over Connecticut (Friday, September 26)
PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois
***LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 17—UConn brings nation’s leading rusher in jr. D. Brown (179 ypg & 10 TDs), as well as sound, veteran defense. However, Louisville’s own stop unit much improved, allowing only 4 meaningful TDs in first 3 games. Emergence of RS frosh RB V. Anderson (176 YR & 3 TDs last week) opening airways for rifle-armed Card sr. QB Cantwell, who’s a much more highly-regarded pro prospect than Husky counterpart Lorenzen. Cards avenge LY’s upset loss. TV—ESPN2 (07-CONN. 21-Lvl. 17...L.20-16 C.39/175 L.31/93 L.29/43/3/228 C.9/18/0/130 C.2 L.0)(07-CONN. +3 21-17 06-LVL. -28' 48-17 05-Lvl. -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-1)
***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20—Notre Dame reverted to recent form, as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP & 57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season). Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV—NBC(07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1)(07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)
***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17—Creative blitz and stunt packages devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation. (07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1) (07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4
***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17—Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe Paterno called his team’s 45-3 romp over Temple “sloppy” and said he wasn’t happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions, who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV—ABC(07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1)(07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)
*TULANE 37 - Smu 13—Although substantial favorite an exceedingly strange pointspread role for long-suffering Tulane, inclined to support resurgent host following last week’s satisfying win over La.-Monroe. Squalid SMU “stop” unit (nation’s-worst 531 ypg) can’t stop anyone, and Mustangs have scored just 2 TDs in last 2 games behind misfiring true frosh QB Mitchell (10 ints. TY).Green Wave has enough rushing and defense (only 223 ypg—No. 8 in country!) to bludgeon visitor into submission.
(07-Tulane 41-SMU 34 (OT)...S.23-21 T.50/361 S.32/84 S.28/37/1/354 T.13/24/0/160 T.1 S.1)(07-Tulane +6 41-34 (OT) 06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 11-5)
*Southern Cal 37 - OREGON STATE 10—Granted, Corvallis has been a real minefield lately for SC, which has failed to cover last 3 trips to Reser Stadium and lost 2 of those outright (including 33-31 shocker in ‘06). But can’t envision erratic OSU QB Moevao doing too much business vs. Pete Carroll’s latest defensive monster that’s loaded with future NFL first-round draftees. And since rebuilt Beaver “D” not yet generating the pressure of recent OSU stop units, Mark Sanchez should again have plenty of time to locate his various weapons downfield. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-S. CAL 24-Ore. St. 3...S.16-12 S.36/100 O.37/91 S.20/34/0/187 O.11/28/1/85 S.1 O.0)
(07-USC -16' 24-3 06-OSU +10' 33-31...SR: Southern Cal 58-9-4)
WAKE FOREST 32 - Navy 20—Swarming Demon Deacon defense has 50 takeaways in last 16 games (!) and holds MAJOR edge over smallish, slowish Navy stop unit. Still, no surprise if tough-minded Middies hang inside roomy impost, as Wake just 4-15 vs. line last 19 laying more than a TD. TV—ESPNU (07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)(07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-2)
Western Michigan 23 - TEMPLE 16—Western, with 17 returning starters and veteran leaders in nearly every platoon, saw its advantage grow when Temple QB DiMichele suffered a shoulder injury at Penn State, with RS frosh backup Stewart throwing three interceptions. Bronco QB Hiller (27 of 31, 5 TDP in 41-7 walkover vs. Tenn. Tech), RB West, WR Simmons, and FS Delmas (3 ints.) too much for Owls. (07-W. MICH. 16-Temple 3...W.19-6 W.40/162 T.27/54 W.24/39/1/276 T.6/25/0/92 W.0 T.1)
(07-WMU -12 16-3 06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 6-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 35 - Marshall 24—New WV HC Bill Stewart already under heavy fire in Morgantown, as Mountaineers off back-to-back losses for first time since 2004. Meanwhile, hungry instate rival Marshall catching a little updraft lately. Host can still hit “home runs” with star QB Pat White & speedy RB Devine. But confident RS frosh triggerman Cann helping Herd attack strike nicebalance last couple weeks. (07-W. Va. 48-MAR. 23...W.27-17 W.52/362 M.32/121 M.20/32/0/266 W.13/18/0/149 W.0 M.1)(07-Wvu -24' 48-23 06-WVU -22 42-10...SR: West Virginia 7-0)
Pittsburgh 32 - SYRACUSE 9—With tough trip to South Florida up next, Pitt probably content to ride star soph RB McCoy & HUGE defensive edge to any SU win. However, that’s not reason enough to back awful Orange, who have dropped their last 7 as Carrier Dome dog by average score of 46-16. (07-PITT 20-Syr. 17...P.16-15 P.41/141 S.31/30 S.19/37/0/235 P.21/30/0/153 P.0 S.0)(07-PITT -13 20-17 06-Pitt -7 21-11 05-PITT -12' 34-17...SR: EVEN 30-30-3)
Michigan State 34 - INDIANA 20—Indiana defense couldn’t handle run/ pass Ball St. combo of Lewis and Davis last week, and MSU has the potential of giving Hoosiers the same headaches. Spartans have played a tougher schedule, has won 3 straight, and QB Brian Hoyer has yet to find his best form (45%, just 1 TD pass). Also, WR Mark Dell (24 ypc) is developing into a go-to receiver and Javon Ringer is 2nd in the nation in rushing. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis was just 11 of 25 passing with 0 TDs and 2 ints. vs. Ball State, and 95 of his 159 YP came on two completions to Andrew Means. TV-ESPN2 (07-MICH. ST. 52-Ind. 27...M.28-9 M.67/368 I.17/22 M.20/23/0/190 I.13/19/0/171 M.1 I.2) (07-MSU -3' 52-27 06-IND. +7 46-21 05-MSU -18 46-15...SR: Michigan State 40-14-2)
IOWA 26 - Northwestern 23—Although off to a slow start, Northwestern QB Bacher still has an edge over Iowa counterparts, Christensen and Stanzi, neither of whom has played well enough to win the job. Hawkeye defense wasn’t quite as dominating last week at Pitt, and visitor has covered last 3 in series. NU RB Sutton’s injury that forced him out of Ohio game didn’t appear serious, but sr. Conteh is a quality backup. Wildcat defense making plays (rank 4th in sacks & TFLs). (07-Iowa 28-N’WESTERN 17...N.24-18 N.33/116 I.34/70 I.21/36/0/299 N.28/55/3/277 I.1 N.0) (07-Iowa +1' 28-17 06-Nwu +20 21-7 05-NWU +3 28-27...SR: Iowa 46-20-3)
DUKE 31 - Virginia 20—Sure, downtrodden Duke hasn’t been favored in an ACC game since 2002 (and they lost that one). But these programs headed in different directions. Confidence growing at Durham under new HC Cutclffe, while Charlottesville insiders insist longtime Virginia mentor Groh on his way out. Little chance Cavs’ inexperienced QBs able to trade points with Duke’s QBLewis (26 TDP, only 10 ints. last 1+ seasons). TV—ESPNU (07-VA. 24-Duke 13...V.17-12 V.34/133 D.34/84 V.22/32/0/191 D.15/35/1/145 V.2 D.0) (07-VIRGINIA -18 24-13 06-Virginia -5' 37-0 05-VIRGINIA -24' 38-7...SR: Virginia 32-27)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 28 - North Carolina 27—Check status of UNC starting QB T.J. Yates (ankle). If Yates is able to make post, then Tar Heels have enough weapons to inflict some damage on Miami’s speedy defense. If he’s not, resourceful Hurricane RS frosh QB Marve likely to lead host to more comfy victory. TV—ESPN (07-N. CAR. 33-Miami 27...M.20-18 N.46/183 M.36/109 M.17/33/4/302 N.15/23/0/218 N.1 M.0) (07-UNC +7 33-27 06-MIAMI -19 27-7 05-MIAMI -20' 34-16...SR: North Carolina 6-5)
FLORIDA 42 - Mississippi 10—Ole Miss has sprung a couple upsets (‘99 & ‘00) and took UF to wire (in ‘08) in last 3 meetings, but that only keeps Gators focused for SEC opener in The Swamp, where they are 7-1 vs. spread last 8. Rebel QB Snead, who had his confidence shaken in 4-int. effort in Vandy loss, won’t have it restored vs. smothering Gator “D” that hasn’t allowed a meaningful TD in ‘08! UF’s star-studded cast (RB Moody had 55 YR in 9 carries vs. Tennessee) taking pressure off Mr. Tebow (only 126 total yds. vs. Vols!).(07-Fla. 30-MISS. 24...F.28-18 F.45/246 M.21/80 M.19/32/1/310 F.20/34/0/261 F.0 M.0)(07-Florida -23 30-24...SR: Mississippi 11-10-1)
*LSU 37 - Mississippi State 3—Though LSU could suffer some letdown following thrilling, last-minute 26-21 victory at Auburn, want no part of regressing 1-3 MSU, which has failed to score a TD over last 8 Qs. Streak continues here. Meanwhile, Tigers rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Lee will take full advantage of explosive arsenal (RB Scott had 132 YR vs. Auburn!) vs. wound-licking Bulldog defense that allowed a whopping 500 yds. in Georgia Tech blowout loss. History repeats itself (Looking for an Angle). TV—ESPN2(07-Lsu 45-MISS. ST. 0...L.22-9 L.50/198 M.26/10 L.14/22/0/149 M.14/33/6/136 L.0 M.1) (07-Lsu -18' 45-0 06-LSU -33' 48-17 05-Lsu -14' 37-7...SR: LSU 65-33-3)
Northern Illinois 34 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 21—EMU “D” and special teams have regressed this season, and the Eagles have yielded 134 points in last 3 games. NIU is scoring 34 ppg, and the visitor has covered 7 straight in this series. NIU QB Harnish sat out Indiana St. game with a foot sprain, and Huskie HC Jerry Kill went with former starter Nicholson (on the mend from shoulder surgery) & RS frosh DeMarcus Grady effectively. (07-E. Mich. 21-N. ILL. 19...N.19-18 E.41/189 N.36/184 E.16/24/0/189 N.20/28/1/160 E.0 N.0)(07-Emu +13' 21-19 06-Niu -7' 27-0 05-NIU -21 24-8...SR: Northern Illinois 22-14-2)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31 - Buffalo 29—Could this be a MAC title game preview? Buffalo’s continuing improvement under Turner Gill suggests that might be a possibility, and doubt Bulls will flinch at prospect of facing productive CMU QB LeFevour after battling Chase Daniel and Mizzou’s high-octane attack last week. Pliable Chippewa “D” should present plenty of opportunities for UB QB Willy and big-play WR/KR E. Jackson (3 TDs vs. Mizzou) to make things interesting. (06-Central Michigan -15 55-28...SR: Central Michigan 3-1)
Cincinnati 30 - AKRON 17—Since Cincy’s strong-armed 6-6 jr. QB Pike (20 of 24 for 241 yds. vs. Miami-Ohio) has picked up where injured Grutza left off, Bearcats fast, sure-handed WRs Goodman & Gilyard (combined 41 catches, 6 TDs) should repeatedly burn rebuilt Akron 2ndary in Zips 1st acid test of year. So, support profitable Cincy (17-8-1 vs. spread since ‘06) making relatively-short 238-mile trip
to Rubber Bowl. (06-CINCINNATI -6 20-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
EAST CAROLINA 35 - Houston 29—Pirates trying to shake lingering emotional effects of last week’s OT loss at N.C. State that quashed BCS hopes stoked by ECU’s early upsets of Va. Tech & W. Virginia. Meanwhile, Houston desperate to get off the schneid after 3 straight losses, and quick-trigger QB Case Keenum (16 TDP, only 4 ints.) gives Cougars good chance to take this one the distance.
(07-E. Car. 37-HOU. 35...H.23-14 E.40/173 H.46/139 H.30/41/2/345 E.11/26/1/156 E.1 H.1) (07-East Carolina +13' 37-35...SR: East Carolina 5-3)
OHIO STATE 41 - Minnesota 9—Hype over Tyrelle Pryor’s ascension to the starting QB slot last week against Troy and his 4 TD passes can’t mask the fact that the Trojans outgained the Buckeyes in Columbus, and OSU led just 14-10 in the 4th Q. That being said, 4-0 Minnesota is jumping way up in class after facing lighter weight competiton, and the Gopher pass defense ranks last in the Big Ten after finishing 115th in the nation last season. Tressel’s Buckeyes continue dominance over Gophers. (07-Ohio St. 30-MINN. 7...O.24-15 O.47/250 M.29/45 M.27/44/2/232 O.18/29/0/209 O.1 M.0) (07-Osu -23' 30-7 06-OSU -27 44-0 05-Osu -4 45-31...SR: Ohio State 40-7)
*NEBRASKA 23 - Virginia Tech 20—VT traveling a long way to play the better-balanced Huskers. Hokies managed comeback win last week at North Carolina despite 2 ints. by QB T. Taylor and with the benefit of an injury to Hokie QB Yates. Nebraska OL bolstered by the return of sr. starter Christensen from suspension. Bo Pelini has improved the NU defense, but his young LBs will be tested by VT’s youthful, but talented, backfield. Hokies 11-2 last 13 as dog. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Nebraska 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 37 - Colorado State 19—Can the Mountain West play Larry Holmes to the Pac-10’s Leon Spinks one more time? Hard to envision Cal meeting same fate as befell various conference brethren, but still not sure Golden Bears can run away and hide from better-than-advertised CSU bunch that’s getting surprising production from QB Farris and rediscovered semblance of infantry diversion last week vs. Houston. Cal a notorious underachiever as DD chalk (3-13-1 last 17 in role). (07-Cal. 34-CSU 28...Co.22-14 Ca.31/245 Co.42/157 Co.21/30/2/301 Ca.19/29/0/146 Ca.0 Co.1) (07-California -14 34-28...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*GEORGIA 26 - Alabama 23—Though previously top-ranked UGA demonstrating it didn’t deserve to drop in polls with its resounding 38-7 thrashing in Tempe, still ready to “take” with big, fast & athletic Bama, owning plenty of playmakers on both sides of ball (school-record 2 ints. returned for TDs vs. Arkansas). Tide’s battle-tested, now-mistake-free QB J.P. Wilson (only 1 int.) keeps pace with Dawg counterpart Stafford, working play-action vs. UGA defense that hasn’t faced such a deep, formidable ground assault all year. Saban’s crew tough to beat by margin, with last 8 losses by 7 pts. or fewer. TV-ESPN (07-Georgia 26-ALA. 23 (OT)...G.20-18 A.35/164 G.40/153 G.19/36/2/224 A.17/35/0/185 G.0 A.1) (07-Georgia +3' 26-23 (OT)...SR: Alabama 35-25-4)
AUBURN 20 - Tennessee 17—Not counting on UT winning the SEC East as it did LY following 1-2 start. But do expect proud Vols to bounce back with fiercely-competitive effort vs. Auburnbunch not easily getting “off the mat” following last-minute loss vs. LSU. UT HC Fulmer unhappy with QB Crompton, but seriously doubt unfinished Tiger QB Todd dissects tight-covering Vol 2ndary (7 ints.; Florida had just 96 YP). AU still has ball security issues (9 Tos last 3 games). Tigers just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 on the Plains, while resilientVols 4-0-1 vs. spread last 5 following SU loss. TV-CBS (DNP...SR: Auburn 24-21-3)
Wisconsin 19 - MICHIGAN 17—Wisconsin HC Bielema spent the team’s bye week expanding the playbook, getting the team healthy, and discussing the merits of “cheddar vs. Swiss” cheese on The Big Ten Network. Michigan counterpart Rodriguez had no time for TV revelry, as he had work to do. The Wolverine defense has played well when not pressured by turnovers or poor field position. Doubt now-focused Michigan will oblige Badgers by committing 6 turnovers, as UM did vs. ND. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill hasn’t had much success against the vet Wolverine run defense (25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games), so Badger QB Evridge will be forced to make some plays in a
very hostile environment. TV-ABC (07-WIS. 37-Mich. 21...W.24-17 W.52/232 M.25/47 M.14/41/3/273 W.14/28/0/245 W.1 M.0)
(07-WIS. +2' 37-21 06-MICH. -14 27-13 05-WIS. +3 23-20...SR: Michigan 48-12-1)
CLEMSON 28 - Maryland 24—Since Maryland’s previously-meandering offense now finding end zone with regularity, eager to take points with Terps. Mobile backup QB Portis (originally at Florida; 9 carries for 98 yards last week) an added dimension for humming UM attack, while Clemson QB Harper (only 3 TDP & 4 ints. in first 4 games; 27 & 6 LY) developing “happy feet” behind Tigers’ young, rebuilt OL. (07-Clem. 30-MARY. 17...C.27-18 C.56/249 M.32/97 M.19/31/1/217 C.20/26/0/179 C.1 M.1)(07-Clem. -3' 30-17 06-Mary. +18' 13-12 05-Clem. +2 28-24...SR: Clemson 30-24-1)
Fresno State 24 - UCLA 12—After second straight TD-less performance last week vs. Arizona, banged-up UCLA “O” and QB Craft looking about as uncomfortable as Barack Obama in recent interview with Bill O’Reilly. As long as Bruin attack continues to flatline, have no problem supporting the far-greater offensive competence demonstrated by Fresno, which lives for these sort of dates and will have plenty of support at Rose Bowl (as many as 20,000 “Red Wavers” could make the trip!). REG'L TV—ABC (DNP...SR: UCLA 6-1)
Bowling Green 24 - WYOMING 13—The last time Wyo covered a pointspread (9-15-07 at Boise), Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were considered frontrunners in the presidential race! And with HC Joe Glenn’s future job prospects in Laramie not looking much better than Rudy or Hillary’s dashed White House dreams, prefer BGSU bunch that MAC sources say used “bye” week to tune-up “O” (expect more runs from QB Sheehan in Falc spread option). New Cowboy o.c. Cole might be readying his résumé, too, with redesigned Poke “O” scoring paltry 10 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
Oregon 38 - WASHINGTON STATE 15—We could excuse Mike Bellotti for asking Dan Fouts if he has any eligibility remaining after yet another Oregon QB (juco Masoli) was KO’d last week, forcing true frosh Darron Thomas into the fray vs. Boise. And Wazzu’s Paul Wulff might be down to his third option at QB (RS frosh Lobbestael) after starter Lopina & backup Rogers went down for the count
vs. Portland State. But Coug “D” still by far the most-vulnerable platoon on field, so need more evidence than last week’s smackdown of Jerry Glanville’s Vikings that WSU stop unit has plugged its many leaks. (07-ORE. 53-Wash. St. 7...O.30-17 O.51/213 W.30/63 O.26/35/0/338 W.15/36/2/251 O.1 W.1) (07-ORE. -19' 53-7 06-WSU +3' 34-23 05-Ore. -4 34-31...SR: Oregon 40-38-7)
*OKLAHOMA 35 - Tcu 10—Sooners well remember TCU’s 17-10 upset in Norman three years ago, so expect special effort from OU team averaging 55 ppg (eased up) in its new no-huddle offense, directed excellently by Sam Bradford (79%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.). Yes, points will not come so easy vs. the respected Horned Frog defense. But TCU will discover its ground game mostly grounded. (05-Tcu +25 17-10...SR: Oklahoma 6-4)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Uab 10—Realize USC mastermind Spurrier (says he might switch to hotshot QB Garcia) still seeking answers on laboring offense, but good chance he finally finds solutions vs. sieve-like UAB defense that’s permitted an eye-popping 1703 yds. in 3 non-covering losses so far. Look for swift, sturdy ‘Cock defense to spin a web around Blazers fleet-footed QB Webb after facing highly-mobile SEC triggermen Nickson & Stafford in early SEC battles. (DNP...SR: South Carolina 1-0)
TEXAS A&M 46 - Army 13—New A&M coach Mike Sherman is forcing a few square pegs of the old Aggie offense into the round holes required by his prostyle attack. Even so, A&M’s 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson has 6 TDP in two games relieving Stephen McGee, while Army looking toward the Pentagon for help after just 223 yards and 7 completions last week vs. Akron. (06-TX A&M -27'28-24 at San Antonio...SR: Tx. A&M 2-1)
BALL STATE 41 - Kent State 20—Could Ball State really be a stealth BCS contender? Well, Cards’ prospects of running the table are still in order after romping past Indiana. And even without star WR Love (scary cervical fracture vs. Hoosiers), Nate Davis & Co. should have no trouble outscoring sagging KSU bunch that allowed UL-Lafayette to gain 3/8 of a mile last week and has proven poorer value to its investors than some financial services stocks (Flashes no covers last 10 on board!) (06-BALL STATE -3 30-6...SR: Ball State 22-17-4)
*South Florida 23 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20—Plenty of “buy” signs flashing for Wolfpack during last week’s upset OT home win over E. Carolina. RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (3 TDP) is emerging as heady field general, hardcharging RBs Andre Brown & Jamelle Eugene are finally healthy, and athletic defense hung tough even though it was missing 2 top players. Bulls’ have burned backers’ money in 6 of last 8 away from Tampa. (05-NO. CAROLINA ST. -4 14-0 (Meineke Car Care Bowl)...SR: N.C. St. 1-0) TV—ESPNU
FLORIDA STATE 23 - Colorado 13—Last week’s grisly home loss to Wake (FSU had 7 giveaways & 139 yards in penalties!) proves early talk of Seminoles’ imminent return to grace was fantasy. On plus side, venerable d.c. Mickey Andrews’ stop unit looked plenty gnarly and welcomes back a handful of suspended starters vs. Colorado. Buff QB Hawkins’ lax ball security a major concern against hard-hitting FSU. (at Jacksonville, FL) (07-Fla. St. 16-COLO. 6...C.21-10 F.37/95 C.25/M27 C.34/54/2/306 F.8/18/0/126 F.0 C.0)(07-Florida State -4' 16-6...SR: Florida State 2-0) TV-ABC
*Ucf 24 - UTEP 17—Though UCF (led 7-3 at H!) forgot to show up following intermission of 34-7 setback at Boston College, still not endorsing floundering UTEP, which has dropped 9 straight games and might be down several key offensive starters, including QB Vittatoe (see Ticker). Knights developing dual threat, 6-3 jr. QB Greco, who was benched after throwing 3 ints. vs. Eagles,should bounce back vs. inviting Miner defense yielding 43 ppg over last 11. (07-UCF 36-Utep 20...C.27-17 C.55/213 T.19/28 T.20/37/2/292 C.19/28/1/267 C.0 T.0) (07-UCF -20' 36-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
*NEW MEXICO STATE 34 - New Mexico 29—Now that QB Holbrook (5 TDP vs. UTEP) back in cockpit of NMSU Air Raid after threatened benching by HC Mumme, don’t mind giving Aggies a whirl vs. hated UNM. After all, Rocky Long’s defenses haven’t exactly slowed Holbrook (945 YP & 8 TDP last 2 vs. Lobos), and UNM will have to go with backup QB Gruner after starter Porterie KO’d in last week’s humbling loss at Tulsa. (07-UNM 44-Nms 34...S.30-20 U.39/154 S.28/108 S.47/64/2/473 U.18/25/0/342 U.1 S.0) (07-UNM -7 44-34 06-Unm -6 34-28 05-UNM -22 38-21...SR: New Mexico 65-28-5)
*SAN DIEGO STATE 33 - Idaho 16—Which is the lesser of these two evils? A cautious vote for SDSU, whose RS frosh QB Lindley at least demonstrated some competence at Notre Dame (we won’t mention subsequent effort at San Jose). And even James Carville would be hard-pressed to put a positive spin on anemic Idaho bunch that’s on 1-11 pointspread run and absorbed vicious beating vs. Utah State (the Aggies, not the Utes) last week. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*Nevada 27 - UNLV 23—True, UNLV off to its most positive start in many years (3 wins already exceed victory total of each of Mike Sanford’s previous 3 teams!). But we’re accustomed to seeing similar encouraging early efforts from Rebs, and it’s worth noting that losses to Nevada in each of the last three campaigns have sent UNLV seasons spinning out of control. Wolf Pack “D” won’t be stretched as it was in recent outings vs. Big XII heavyweights Texas Tech & Mizzou, and Rebel “D” was burned badly the last time it saw a QB (Utah’s Brian Johnson) as mobile as Nevada’s Kaepernick. (07-NEV. 27-Unlv 20...U.24-21 U.39/205 N.35/128 N.20/38/1/330 U.18/40/1/249 N.0 U.0) (07-NEVADA -3' 27-20 06-Nevada -3' 31-3 05-NEVADA +1' 22-14...SR: Nevada 18-15)
*San Jose State 27 - HAWAII 20—Greg McMackin’s rebuilt Hawaii Red Gun about as similar to June Jones’ previous editions as Sean Hannity’s political views are to those of Alan Colmes. And with QB Graunke possibly compromised by hand injury, Warriors won’t rediscover their old scoring magic anytime soon. Not sure undersized UH “D” can blitz SJS QB Reed into submission as did Stanford last week, and Spartans’ shutdown CBs Owens & Francies will come in handy vs. Red Gun. (07-Hawaii 42-SJS 35 (OT)...H.34-18 H.26/56 S.25/42 H.44/75/4/545 S.27/47/3/302 H.0 S.1) (07-Hawaii -17 42-35 (OT) 06-HAWAII -25 54-17 05-Hawaii -6 45-38...SR: EVEN 15-15-
ADDED GAMES
*KENTUCKY 29 - Western Kentucky 10—In 1st-ever meeting between these two, lean to excited WKU squad that has enough offensive skill to sneak inside number vs. nicked-up UK team (key LB M. Johnson & DT Lumpkin doubtful) that still has issues at WR (too many drops & incorrect routes, according to coaches) & STs (kicker Seiber missed 4 of 6 FGs vs. MTS). Wildcats, who narrowly escaped vs. M. Tenn. St., have huge lookahead toward Bama next week. (FIRST MEETING)
Arkansas State 33 - MEMPHIS 27—Sure, Memphis in double-revenge mode after dominating cross-river rival ASU for years. However, current reality finds Red Wolves holding substantially stronger hand. Visitor’s irrepressible jr. QB Leonard and much deeper well of defensive resolve will trump top-notch Tiger WR corps. (07-ASU 35-Mem. 31...A.24-17 M.45/177 A.39/134 A.16/37/0/255 M.12/25/0/218 A.2 M.0) (07-ARKANSAS ST. -4' 35-31 06-Arkansas St. +9 26-23...SR: Memphis 27-22-5)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 17—It’s payback time for OSU, which remembers Troy’s boisterous celebration LY after the Trojans whupped the Cowboys 41-23 in Alabama. State defense still has a few questions, but don’t look for the Cowboy offense, led by heady jr. Zac Robinson, to let up. OSU (bye week following Sept. 13 rout vs. Mo. St.) has extra time to prep for youthful Troy offense. (07-TROY 41-Osu 23...T.29-20 O.38/241 T.48/174 T.34/49/1/388 O.18/37/2/191 T.1 O.3) (07-TROY +10 41-23...SR: Troy 1-0)
*TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 20—Stark contrast in offensive production for these two teams, as FIU ranks last in scoring and total offense while Toledo scores 37 ppg & generates 396 ypg. Would draw the line at 3 TDs as defense-shy Rockets have potential lookahead to homecoming vs. MAC foe Ball State up next. (FIRST MEETING)
KANSAS STATE 48 - La.-Lafayette 20—Clever QB Michael Desormeaux and Louisiana offense must be respected. But undersized Cajun defense (633 yards at So. Miss) should be just what the doctor ordered for K-State offense after its spotty Wednesday play at Louisville. Juco RB Keithen Valentine should be of more help to QB Freeman, while HC Prince’s STs already have 4 TDs TY.(DNP...SR: Kansas State 2-0)
*RICE 42 - North Texas 27—After being manhandled by big, bad Texas, Rice & star QB Clement will welcome shot at little, sad North Texas. Very measured vote to dog, however, based on belief that Mean Green attack can land some shots of its own against wounded Owl defense. (DNP...SR: North Texas 1-0)
WRITE-IN GAME
TEXAS 38 - Arkansas 16—Youthful Razorbacks (4 ints.) humiliated 49-14 last week by ascending Alabama. But Arkansas always extra-focused vs. Texas, whose early schedule of Florida Atlantic, UTEP & Rice has been none too testing. UT and Colt McCoy will get their win, but humbled Hogs will fight all the way. (DNP...SR: Texas 55-21) TV-ABC
THE GOLD SHEET (3-6)
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10—Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender (Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta “D” might be under new HC Mike Smith, it’s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did Minnesota’s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs’ two wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on road to compensate.(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0) (07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1) (07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13—Kudos to Joe Flacco for his hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs (ask Atlanta’s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers’ zone blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco (who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week’sloss at Philly. Steelers “over” 42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV—ESPN (07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3) (07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)(07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24—The Rams’ back seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58 of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more! Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load forimproving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis “over” 17-8-1 its last 26 at home. (04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
Denver 31 - KANSAS CITY 20—While K.C. has started three different QBs in the first three games, Denver’s Jay Cutler has emerged as one of the brightest young passers in the league, with 714 YP and 6 TDs. And, while the Chiefs’ rebuilt OL has failed to meld, the remodeled Bronco front wall has allowed only one sack. Rebuilding K.C. 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9 at home. However, with the pointspread so uncharacteristic for this old AFC West rivalry, and with Chiefs able to run with Larry Johnson, might look for 10-3 series “over”trend to continue. (07-Denv 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1) (07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2) (07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 52-44)
CINCINNATI 23 - Cleveland 13—0-3 vs. 0-3. Bengals at least showed signs of life last week with their near win vs. the Giants, as Carson Palmer hit 27 of 39, Chris Perry the balanced offense with 70 YR, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh got loose for 12 receptions. Meanwhile, Cleveland offense (9 ppg) was stifled in Baltimore, with Derek Anderson (5 sacks, 3 ints.) under pressure, receivingcorps thin, and Jamal Lewis showing his age. Cincy 6-1 SU last 7 in series; “under” 7 of last 9 overall; Cleveland “under” 8 of last 9 overall. (07-CLE. 51-Cin 45...Ci.33-23 Cl.30/226 Ci.26/137 Ci.33/50/2/394 Cl.20/33/1/328 Cl.0 Ci.1) (07-CIN 19-Cle. 14...Cl.25-15 Ci.33/155 Cl.26/136 Cl.29/48/4/244 Ci.11/21/2/115 Ci.1 Cl.0) (07-CLEVELAND +7 51-45, CINCINNATI +2' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 35-34)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Houston 20—Houston has played Jacksonville tough over the years, covering 9 times in 12 series meetings. With the Jags’ offense hurting in the line and at WR, don’t mind looking for a continuation, as Texan offense had problems shaking off the rust in the red zone last week in Tennessee. With 2007 seventh-round pick Zach Diles locking up one OLB spot, Houston now has four rock-solid young guns in front seven (Diles, MLB DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye) to counter Jacksonville’s improving ground game (236 YR at Indy). Must acknowledge, however, the hurricane-disrupted Texans have yet to play a home game.
(07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2) (07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1) (07-JACKSONVILLE -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-5)
NY JETS 24 - Arizona 16—The NFL’s answer to a Jamie Moyer vs. Randy Johnson pitching matchup, with vet QBs Kurt Warner (37) & Brett Favre (38) each a bit long in the tooth, but still quite serviceable. Warner has had more chances to show his stuff early in the season, but expect that dynamic to gradually change as Favre gains familiarity and Eric Mangini (hopefully)loosens the handcuffs on the Jets’ offense, which was limited by conservative playcalling in first two games. Will count on improved N.Y. OL to help Favre getthings going. Arizona only 3-7 SU last 10 on road. (04-NY Jets -3 13-3...SR: NY Jets 4-2)
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 27—With N.O. defense thinned by injuries, it’s a good time for S.F. QB J.T. O’Sullivan to make his second road start. Niner offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who liked what he saw of O’Sullivan a couple of years ago while studying film of NFL Europe players, says the QB could develop into one of his best with O’Sullivan’s combination of mobility with a quick release. Offensive-minded Saints (4-11 last 15 as Superdome favorite) have hardly protected their turf very well lately, but they do have a penchant for going “over” (16 of last 22).
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16—Another battle of “fossil” QBs, with 36-year-old Gus Frerotte opposing 35-year-old Kerry Collins after each was tabbed to provide veteran leadership. But, with both teams limited in receiving talent, this might turn out to be more of a contest between young RBs Adrian Peterson (340 YR) of the Vikes and speedy Chris Johnson (276 YR) of the Titans. And Minnesota has been No. 1 against the run for the L2Ys. In ground-oriented, defensive affair, would look for Tennessee’s 13-7 “under” trend to extend. (04-MINNESOTA -6 20-3...SR: Minnesota 7-3)
TAMPA BAY 24 - Green Bay 16—Aaron Rodgers of the Packers took his first loss as a starter Sunday night vs. Dallas, but he still has 4 TDs & no ints. TY, showing a better delivery & composure than many expected. However, the heat and noisy crowd of Raymond James has done in many a good QB, as Brett Favre showed with Green Bay many a time. The Bucs won last week in Chicago despite 4 turnovers, with Brian Griese completing 38 of 67 passes! With Ryan Grant still not 100% due to his sore hamstring, will side with rejuvenated veteran Griese and home-loving’ Bucs (7-2 last 9 as a home favorite). (05-Tampa Bay -3' 17-16...SR: Green Bay 30-19-1)
San Diego 26 - OAKLAND 13—The situation in Oakland seems to have at least one bizarre twist each week, with the team’s PR department last week distributing a column critical of HC Lane Kiffin. Mike Shanahan has pointed out that he lasted one year and four games, and this is ominous Week Four of Year Two for Kiffin. More importantly, S.D.’s talented CBs capable of taking adequate care of the Raiders’ WRs, allowing Chargers to overload their injury/suspension-thinned defense vs. the formidable Oakland ground game. With S.D. 9-0 SU last 9 in this rivalry (and 9-1 last 10 vs. the line), will side with Philip & L.T. over JaMarcus & “Run D.Mc.” (07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3) (07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-40-2)
DALLAS 27 - Washington 23—By all appearances so far, Dallas appears to by Super Bowl bound. But this is a lonnng season, and new Washington HC Jim Zorn seems to have done wonders with the Washington offense, boosting the confidence of big, mobile, strong-armed QB Jason Campbell by allowing him to fire away to talented targets Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris Cooley. Scouts report Redskins happy they finally have their top cover guys (Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Fred Smoot) all healthy again. Washington 5-1 vs. spread last 6 in series. (07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0) (07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASHINGTON -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-38-2)
*Philadelphia 27 - CHICAGO 20—Will side with the experience of Donovan McNabb to make game-deciding plays over the still-evolving Kyle Orton (2 ints. last week) vs. Philly pass rush (9 sacks last week). Bears again perfecting the art of the close defeat (back-to-back 3-point losses), with offense becoming increasingly reliant upon the work of impressive rookie RB Matt Forte (on pace for 1600-yard season). Eagles (check status of Brian Westbrook’s ankle) still seething from LY’s meeting at the Linc, when then-Chicago QB Brian Griese drove Bears the length of the field without a timeout for last-second win. Compelling “over” trends of note (Philly “over” 11-6 last 17 away; Bears “over” 16-4 last 20 at Soldier Field). TV—NBC (07-Chi. 19-PHIL. 16...P.21-19 P.25/123 C.23/72 C.27/41/0/314 P.21/34/0/211 C.0 P.0) (07-Chicago +5' 19-16...SR: Chicago 26-10-1)
LOUISVILLE by 14 over Connecticut (Friday, September 26)
PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois
***LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 17—UConn brings nation’s leading rusher in jr. D. Brown (179 ypg & 10 TDs), as well as sound, veteran defense. However, Louisville’s own stop unit much improved, allowing only 4 meaningful TDs in first 3 games. Emergence of RS frosh RB V. Anderson (176 YR & 3 TDs last week) opening airways for rifle-armed Card sr. QB Cantwell, who’s a much more highly-regarded pro prospect than Husky counterpart Lorenzen. Cards avenge LY’s upset loss. TV—ESPN2 (07-CONN. 21-Lvl. 17...L.20-16 C.39/175 L.31/93 L.29/43/3/228 C.9/18/0/130 C.2 L.0)(07-CONN. +3 21-17 06-LVL. -28' 48-17 05-Lvl. -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-1)
***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20—Notre Dame reverted to recent form, as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP & 57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season). Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV—NBC(07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1)(07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)
***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17—Creative blitz and stunt packages devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation. (07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1) (07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4
***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17—Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe Paterno called his team’s 45-3 romp over Temple “sloppy” and said he wasn’t happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions, who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV—ABC(07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1)(07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)
*TULANE 37 - Smu 13—Although substantial favorite an exceedingly strange pointspread role for long-suffering Tulane, inclined to support resurgent host following last week’s satisfying win over La.-Monroe. Squalid SMU “stop” unit (nation’s-worst 531 ypg) can’t stop anyone, and Mustangs have scored just 2 TDs in last 2 games behind misfiring true frosh QB Mitchell (10 ints. TY).Green Wave has enough rushing and defense (only 223 ypg—No. 8 in country!) to bludgeon visitor into submission.
(07-Tulane 41-SMU 34 (OT)...S.23-21 T.50/361 S.32/84 S.28/37/1/354 T.13/24/0/160 T.1 S.1)(07-Tulane +6 41-34 (OT) 06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 11-5)
*Southern Cal 37 - OREGON STATE 10—Granted, Corvallis has been a real minefield lately for SC, which has failed to cover last 3 trips to Reser Stadium and lost 2 of those outright (including 33-31 shocker in ‘06). But can’t envision erratic OSU QB Moevao doing too much business vs. Pete Carroll’s latest defensive monster that’s loaded with future NFL first-round draftees. And since rebuilt Beaver “D” not yet generating the pressure of recent OSU stop units, Mark Sanchez should again have plenty of time to locate his various weapons downfield. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-S. CAL 24-Ore. St. 3...S.16-12 S.36/100 O.37/91 S.20/34/0/187 O.11/28/1/85 S.1 O.0)
(07-USC -16' 24-3 06-OSU +10' 33-31...SR: Southern Cal 58-9-4)
WAKE FOREST 32 - Navy 20—Swarming Demon Deacon defense has 50 takeaways in last 16 games (!) and holds MAJOR edge over smallish, slowish Navy stop unit. Still, no surprise if tough-minded Middies hang inside roomy impost, as Wake just 4-15 vs. line last 19 laying more than a TD. TV—ESPNU (07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)(07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-2)
Western Michigan 23 - TEMPLE 16—Western, with 17 returning starters and veteran leaders in nearly every platoon, saw its advantage grow when Temple QB DiMichele suffered a shoulder injury at Penn State, with RS frosh backup Stewart throwing three interceptions. Bronco QB Hiller (27 of 31, 5 TDP in 41-7 walkover vs. Tenn. Tech), RB West, WR Simmons, and FS Delmas (3 ints.) too much for Owls. (07-W. MICH. 16-Temple 3...W.19-6 W.40/162 T.27/54 W.24/39/1/276 T.6/25/0/92 W.0 T.1)
(07-WMU -12 16-3 06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 6-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 35 - Marshall 24—New WV HC Bill Stewart already under heavy fire in Morgantown, as Mountaineers off back-to-back losses for first time since 2004. Meanwhile, hungry instate rival Marshall catching a little updraft lately. Host can still hit “home runs” with star QB Pat White & speedy RB Devine. But confident RS frosh triggerman Cann helping Herd attack strike nicebalance last couple weeks. (07-W. Va. 48-MAR. 23...W.27-17 W.52/362 M.32/121 M.20/32/0/266 W.13/18/0/149 W.0 M.1)(07-Wvu -24' 48-23 06-WVU -22 42-10...SR: West Virginia 7-0)
Pittsburgh 32 - SYRACUSE 9—With tough trip to South Florida up next, Pitt probably content to ride star soph RB McCoy & HUGE defensive edge to any SU win. However, that’s not reason enough to back awful Orange, who have dropped their last 7 as Carrier Dome dog by average score of 46-16. (07-PITT 20-Syr. 17...P.16-15 P.41/141 S.31/30 S.19/37/0/235 P.21/30/0/153 P.0 S.0)(07-PITT -13 20-17 06-Pitt -7 21-11 05-PITT -12' 34-17...SR: EVEN 30-30-3)
Michigan State 34 - INDIANA 20—Indiana defense couldn’t handle run/ pass Ball St. combo of Lewis and Davis last week, and MSU has the potential of giving Hoosiers the same headaches. Spartans have played a tougher schedule, has won 3 straight, and QB Brian Hoyer has yet to find his best form (45%, just 1 TD pass). Also, WR Mark Dell (24 ypc) is developing into a go-to receiver and Javon Ringer is 2nd in the nation in rushing. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis was just 11 of 25 passing with 0 TDs and 2 ints. vs. Ball State, and 95 of his 159 YP came on two completions to Andrew Means. TV-ESPN2 (07-MICH. ST. 52-Ind. 27...M.28-9 M.67/368 I.17/22 M.20/23/0/190 I.13/19/0/171 M.1 I.2) (07-MSU -3' 52-27 06-IND. +7 46-21 05-MSU -18 46-15...SR: Michigan State 40-14-2)
IOWA 26 - Northwestern 23—Although off to a slow start, Northwestern QB Bacher still has an edge over Iowa counterparts, Christensen and Stanzi, neither of whom has played well enough to win the job. Hawkeye defense wasn’t quite as dominating last week at Pitt, and visitor has covered last 3 in series. NU RB Sutton’s injury that forced him out of Ohio game didn’t appear serious, but sr. Conteh is a quality backup. Wildcat defense making plays (rank 4th in sacks & TFLs). (07-Iowa 28-N’WESTERN 17...N.24-18 N.33/116 I.34/70 I.21/36/0/299 N.28/55/3/277 I.1 N.0) (07-Iowa +1' 28-17 06-Nwu +20 21-7 05-NWU +3 28-27...SR: Iowa 46-20-3)
DUKE 31 - Virginia 20—Sure, downtrodden Duke hasn’t been favored in an ACC game since 2002 (and they lost that one). But these programs headed in different directions. Confidence growing at Durham under new HC Cutclffe, while Charlottesville insiders insist longtime Virginia mentor Groh on his way out. Little chance Cavs’ inexperienced QBs able to trade points with Duke’s QBLewis (26 TDP, only 10 ints. last 1+ seasons). TV—ESPNU (07-VA. 24-Duke 13...V.17-12 V.34/133 D.34/84 V.22/32/0/191 D.15/35/1/145 V.2 D.0) (07-VIRGINIA -18 24-13 06-Virginia -5' 37-0 05-VIRGINIA -24' 38-7...SR: Virginia 32-27)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 28 - North Carolina 27—Check status of UNC starting QB T.J. Yates (ankle). If Yates is able to make post, then Tar Heels have enough weapons to inflict some damage on Miami’s speedy defense. If he’s not, resourceful Hurricane RS frosh QB Marve likely to lead host to more comfy victory. TV—ESPN (07-N. CAR. 33-Miami 27...M.20-18 N.46/183 M.36/109 M.17/33/4/302 N.15/23/0/218 N.1 M.0) (07-UNC +7 33-27 06-MIAMI -19 27-7 05-MIAMI -20' 34-16...SR: North Carolina 6-5)
FLORIDA 42 - Mississippi 10—Ole Miss has sprung a couple upsets (‘99 & ‘00) and took UF to wire (in ‘08) in last 3 meetings, but that only keeps Gators focused for SEC opener in The Swamp, where they are 7-1 vs. spread last 8. Rebel QB Snead, who had his confidence shaken in 4-int. effort in Vandy loss, won’t have it restored vs. smothering Gator “D” that hasn’t allowed a meaningful TD in ‘08! UF’s star-studded cast (RB Moody had 55 YR in 9 carries vs. Tennessee) taking pressure off Mr. Tebow (only 126 total yds. vs. Vols!).(07-Fla. 30-MISS. 24...F.28-18 F.45/246 M.21/80 M.19/32/1/310 F.20/34/0/261 F.0 M.0)(07-Florida -23 30-24...SR: Mississippi 11-10-1)
*LSU 37 - Mississippi State 3—Though LSU could suffer some letdown following thrilling, last-minute 26-21 victory at Auburn, want no part of regressing 1-3 MSU, which has failed to score a TD over last 8 Qs. Streak continues here. Meanwhile, Tigers rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Lee will take full advantage of explosive arsenal (RB Scott had 132 YR vs. Auburn!) vs. wound-licking Bulldog defense that allowed a whopping 500 yds. in Georgia Tech blowout loss. History repeats itself (Looking for an Angle). TV—ESPN2(07-Lsu 45-MISS. ST. 0...L.22-9 L.50/198 M.26/10 L.14/22/0/149 M.14/33/6/136 L.0 M.1) (07-Lsu -18' 45-0 06-LSU -33' 48-17 05-Lsu -14' 37-7...SR: LSU 65-33-3)
Northern Illinois 34 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 21—EMU “D” and special teams have regressed this season, and the Eagles have yielded 134 points in last 3 games. NIU is scoring 34 ppg, and the visitor has covered 7 straight in this series. NIU QB Harnish sat out Indiana St. game with a foot sprain, and Huskie HC Jerry Kill went with former starter Nicholson (on the mend from shoulder surgery) & RS frosh DeMarcus Grady effectively. (07-E. Mich. 21-N. ILL. 19...N.19-18 E.41/189 N.36/184 E.16/24/0/189 N.20/28/1/160 E.0 N.0)(07-Emu +13' 21-19 06-Niu -7' 27-0 05-NIU -21 24-8...SR: Northern Illinois 22-14-2)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31 - Buffalo 29—Could this be a MAC title game preview? Buffalo’s continuing improvement under Turner Gill suggests that might be a possibility, and doubt Bulls will flinch at prospect of facing productive CMU QB LeFevour after battling Chase Daniel and Mizzou’s high-octane attack last week. Pliable Chippewa “D” should present plenty of opportunities for UB QB Willy and big-play WR/KR E. Jackson (3 TDs vs. Mizzou) to make things interesting. (06-Central Michigan -15 55-28...SR: Central Michigan 3-1)
Cincinnati 30 - AKRON 17—Since Cincy’s strong-armed 6-6 jr. QB Pike (20 of 24 for 241 yds. vs. Miami-Ohio) has picked up where injured Grutza left off, Bearcats fast, sure-handed WRs Goodman & Gilyard (combined 41 catches, 6 TDs) should repeatedly burn rebuilt Akron 2ndary in Zips 1st acid test of year. So, support profitable Cincy (17-8-1 vs. spread since ‘06) making relatively-short 238-mile trip
to Rubber Bowl. (06-CINCINNATI -6 20-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
EAST CAROLINA 35 - Houston 29—Pirates trying to shake lingering emotional effects of last week’s OT loss at N.C. State that quashed BCS hopes stoked by ECU’s early upsets of Va. Tech & W. Virginia. Meanwhile, Houston desperate to get off the schneid after 3 straight losses, and quick-trigger QB Case Keenum (16 TDP, only 4 ints.) gives Cougars good chance to take this one the distance.
(07-E. Car. 37-HOU. 35...H.23-14 E.40/173 H.46/139 H.30/41/2/345 E.11/26/1/156 E.1 H.1) (07-East Carolina +13' 37-35...SR: East Carolina 5-3)
OHIO STATE 41 - Minnesota 9—Hype over Tyrelle Pryor’s ascension to the starting QB slot last week against Troy and his 4 TD passes can’t mask the fact that the Trojans outgained the Buckeyes in Columbus, and OSU led just 14-10 in the 4th Q. That being said, 4-0 Minnesota is jumping way up in class after facing lighter weight competiton, and the Gopher pass defense ranks last in the Big Ten after finishing 115th in the nation last season. Tressel’s Buckeyes continue dominance over Gophers. (07-Ohio St. 30-MINN. 7...O.24-15 O.47/250 M.29/45 M.27/44/2/232 O.18/29/0/209 O.1 M.0) (07-Osu -23' 30-7 06-OSU -27 44-0 05-Osu -4 45-31...SR: Ohio State 40-7)
*NEBRASKA 23 - Virginia Tech 20—VT traveling a long way to play the better-balanced Huskers. Hokies managed comeback win last week at North Carolina despite 2 ints. by QB T. Taylor and with the benefit of an injury to Hokie QB Yates. Nebraska OL bolstered by the return of sr. starter Christensen from suspension. Bo Pelini has improved the NU defense, but his young LBs will be tested by VT’s youthful, but talented, backfield. Hokies 11-2 last 13 as dog. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Nebraska 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 37 - Colorado State 19—Can the Mountain West play Larry Holmes to the Pac-10’s Leon Spinks one more time? Hard to envision Cal meeting same fate as befell various conference brethren, but still not sure Golden Bears can run away and hide from better-than-advertised CSU bunch that’s getting surprising production from QB Farris and rediscovered semblance of infantry diversion last week vs. Houston. Cal a notorious underachiever as DD chalk (3-13-1 last 17 in role). (07-Cal. 34-CSU 28...Co.22-14 Ca.31/245 Co.42/157 Co.21/30/2/301 Ca.19/29/0/146 Ca.0 Co.1) (07-California -14 34-28...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*GEORGIA 26 - Alabama 23—Though previously top-ranked UGA demonstrating it didn’t deserve to drop in polls with its resounding 38-7 thrashing in Tempe, still ready to “take” with big, fast & athletic Bama, owning plenty of playmakers on both sides of ball (school-record 2 ints. returned for TDs vs. Arkansas). Tide’s battle-tested, now-mistake-free QB J.P. Wilson (only 1 int.) keeps pace with Dawg counterpart Stafford, working play-action vs. UGA defense that hasn’t faced such a deep, formidable ground assault all year. Saban’s crew tough to beat by margin, with last 8 losses by 7 pts. or fewer. TV-ESPN (07-Georgia 26-ALA. 23 (OT)...G.20-18 A.35/164 G.40/153 G.19/36/2/224 A.17/35/0/185 G.0 A.1) (07-Georgia +3' 26-23 (OT)...SR: Alabama 35-25-4)
AUBURN 20 - Tennessee 17—Not counting on UT winning the SEC East as it did LY following 1-2 start. But do expect proud Vols to bounce back with fiercely-competitive effort vs. Auburnbunch not easily getting “off the mat” following last-minute loss vs. LSU. UT HC Fulmer unhappy with QB Crompton, but seriously doubt unfinished Tiger QB Todd dissects tight-covering Vol 2ndary (7 ints.; Florida had just 96 YP). AU still has ball security issues (9 Tos last 3 games). Tigers just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 on the Plains, while resilientVols 4-0-1 vs. spread last 5 following SU loss. TV-CBS (DNP...SR: Auburn 24-21-3)
Wisconsin 19 - MICHIGAN 17—Wisconsin HC Bielema spent the team’s bye week expanding the playbook, getting the team healthy, and discussing the merits of “cheddar vs. Swiss” cheese on The Big Ten Network. Michigan counterpart Rodriguez had no time for TV revelry, as he had work to do. The Wolverine defense has played well when not pressured by turnovers or poor field position. Doubt now-focused Michigan will oblige Badgers by committing 6 turnovers, as UM did vs. ND. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill hasn’t had much success against the vet Wolverine run defense (25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games), so Badger QB Evridge will be forced to make some plays in a
very hostile environment. TV-ABC (07-WIS. 37-Mich. 21...W.24-17 W.52/232 M.25/47 M.14/41/3/273 W.14/28/0/245 W.1 M.0)
(07-WIS. +2' 37-21 06-MICH. -14 27-13 05-WIS. +3 23-20...SR: Michigan 48-12-1)
CLEMSON 28 - Maryland 24—Since Maryland’s previously-meandering offense now finding end zone with regularity, eager to take points with Terps. Mobile backup QB Portis (originally at Florida; 9 carries for 98 yards last week) an added dimension for humming UM attack, while Clemson QB Harper (only 3 TDP & 4 ints. in first 4 games; 27 & 6 LY) developing “happy feet” behind Tigers’ young, rebuilt OL. (07-Clem. 30-MARY. 17...C.27-18 C.56/249 M.32/97 M.19/31/1/217 C.20/26/0/179 C.1 M.1)(07-Clem. -3' 30-17 06-Mary. +18' 13-12 05-Clem. +2 28-24...SR: Clemson 30-24-1)
Fresno State 24 - UCLA 12—After second straight TD-less performance last week vs. Arizona, banged-up UCLA “O” and QB Craft looking about as uncomfortable as Barack Obama in recent interview with Bill O’Reilly. As long as Bruin attack continues to flatline, have no problem supporting the far-greater offensive competence demonstrated by Fresno, which lives for these sort of dates and will have plenty of support at Rose Bowl (as many as 20,000 “Red Wavers” could make the trip!). REG'L TV—ABC (DNP...SR: UCLA 6-1)
Bowling Green 24 - WYOMING 13—The last time Wyo covered a pointspread (9-15-07 at Boise), Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were considered frontrunners in the presidential race! And with HC Joe Glenn’s future job prospects in Laramie not looking much better than Rudy or Hillary’s dashed White House dreams, prefer BGSU bunch that MAC sources say used “bye” week to tune-up “O” (expect more runs from QB Sheehan in Falc spread option). New Cowboy o.c. Cole might be readying his résumé, too, with redesigned Poke “O” scoring paltry 10 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
Oregon 38 - WASHINGTON STATE 15—We could excuse Mike Bellotti for asking Dan Fouts if he has any eligibility remaining after yet another Oregon QB (juco Masoli) was KO’d last week, forcing true frosh Darron Thomas into the fray vs. Boise. And Wazzu’s Paul Wulff might be down to his third option at QB (RS frosh Lobbestael) after starter Lopina & backup Rogers went down for the count
vs. Portland State. But Coug “D” still by far the most-vulnerable platoon on field, so need more evidence than last week’s smackdown of Jerry Glanville’s Vikings that WSU stop unit has plugged its many leaks. (07-ORE. 53-Wash. St. 7...O.30-17 O.51/213 W.30/63 O.26/35/0/338 W.15/36/2/251 O.1 W.1) (07-ORE. -19' 53-7 06-WSU +3' 34-23 05-Ore. -4 34-31...SR: Oregon 40-38-7)
*OKLAHOMA 35 - Tcu 10—Sooners well remember TCU’s 17-10 upset in Norman three years ago, so expect special effort from OU team averaging 55 ppg (eased up) in its new no-huddle offense, directed excellently by Sam Bradford (79%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.). Yes, points will not come so easy vs. the respected Horned Frog defense. But TCU will discover its ground game mostly grounded. (05-Tcu +25 17-10...SR: Oklahoma 6-4)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Uab 10—Realize USC mastermind Spurrier (says he might switch to hotshot QB Garcia) still seeking answers on laboring offense, but good chance he finally finds solutions vs. sieve-like UAB defense that’s permitted an eye-popping 1703 yds. in 3 non-covering losses so far. Look for swift, sturdy ‘Cock defense to spin a web around Blazers fleet-footed QB Webb after facing highly-mobile SEC triggermen Nickson & Stafford in early SEC battles. (DNP...SR: South Carolina 1-0)
TEXAS A&M 46 - Army 13—New A&M coach Mike Sherman is forcing a few square pegs of the old Aggie offense into the round holes required by his prostyle attack. Even so, A&M’s 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson has 6 TDP in two games relieving Stephen McGee, while Army looking toward the Pentagon for help after just 223 yards and 7 completions last week vs. Akron. (06-TX A&M -27'28-24 at San Antonio...SR: Tx. A&M 2-1)
BALL STATE 41 - Kent State 20—Could Ball State really be a stealth BCS contender? Well, Cards’ prospects of running the table are still in order after romping past Indiana. And even without star WR Love (scary cervical fracture vs. Hoosiers), Nate Davis & Co. should have no trouble outscoring sagging KSU bunch that allowed UL-Lafayette to gain 3/8 of a mile last week and has proven poorer value to its investors than some financial services stocks (Flashes no covers last 10 on board!) (06-BALL STATE -3 30-6...SR: Ball State 22-17-4)
*South Florida 23 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20—Plenty of “buy” signs flashing for Wolfpack during last week’s upset OT home win over E. Carolina. RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (3 TDP) is emerging as heady field general, hardcharging RBs Andre Brown & Jamelle Eugene are finally healthy, and athletic defense hung tough even though it was missing 2 top players. Bulls’ have burned backers’ money in 6 of last 8 away from Tampa. (05-NO. CAROLINA ST. -4 14-0 (Meineke Car Care Bowl)...SR: N.C. St. 1-0) TV—ESPNU
FLORIDA STATE 23 - Colorado 13—Last week’s grisly home loss to Wake (FSU had 7 giveaways & 139 yards in penalties!) proves early talk of Seminoles’ imminent return to grace was fantasy. On plus side, venerable d.c. Mickey Andrews’ stop unit looked plenty gnarly and welcomes back a handful of suspended starters vs. Colorado. Buff QB Hawkins’ lax ball security a major concern against hard-hitting FSU. (at Jacksonville, FL) (07-Fla. St. 16-COLO. 6...C.21-10 F.37/95 C.25/M27 C.34/54/2/306 F.8/18/0/126 F.0 C.0)(07-Florida State -4' 16-6...SR: Florida State 2-0) TV-ABC
*Ucf 24 - UTEP 17—Though UCF (led 7-3 at H!) forgot to show up following intermission of 34-7 setback at Boston College, still not endorsing floundering UTEP, which has dropped 9 straight games and might be down several key offensive starters, including QB Vittatoe (see Ticker). Knights developing dual threat, 6-3 jr. QB Greco, who was benched after throwing 3 ints. vs. Eagles,should bounce back vs. inviting Miner defense yielding 43 ppg over last 11. (07-UCF 36-Utep 20...C.27-17 C.55/213 T.19/28 T.20/37/2/292 C.19/28/1/267 C.0 T.0) (07-UCF -20' 36-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
*NEW MEXICO STATE 34 - New Mexico 29—Now that QB Holbrook (5 TDP vs. UTEP) back in cockpit of NMSU Air Raid after threatened benching by HC Mumme, don’t mind giving Aggies a whirl vs. hated UNM. After all, Rocky Long’s defenses haven’t exactly slowed Holbrook (945 YP & 8 TDP last 2 vs. Lobos), and UNM will have to go with backup QB Gruner after starter Porterie KO’d in last week’s humbling loss at Tulsa. (07-UNM 44-Nms 34...S.30-20 U.39/154 S.28/108 S.47/64/2/473 U.18/25/0/342 U.1 S.0) (07-UNM -7 44-34 06-Unm -6 34-28 05-UNM -22 38-21...SR: New Mexico 65-28-5)
*SAN DIEGO STATE 33 - Idaho 16—Which is the lesser of these two evils? A cautious vote for SDSU, whose RS frosh QB Lindley at least demonstrated some competence at Notre Dame (we won’t mention subsequent effort at San Jose). And even James Carville would be hard-pressed to put a positive spin on anemic Idaho bunch that’s on 1-11 pointspread run and absorbed vicious beating vs. Utah State (the Aggies, not the Utes) last week. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*Nevada 27 - UNLV 23—True, UNLV off to its most positive start in many years (3 wins already exceed victory total of each of Mike Sanford’s previous 3 teams!). But we’re accustomed to seeing similar encouraging early efforts from Rebs, and it’s worth noting that losses to Nevada in each of the last three campaigns have sent UNLV seasons spinning out of control. Wolf Pack “D” won’t be stretched as it was in recent outings vs. Big XII heavyweights Texas Tech & Mizzou, and Rebel “D” was burned badly the last time it saw a QB (Utah’s Brian Johnson) as mobile as Nevada’s Kaepernick. (07-NEV. 27-Unlv 20...U.24-21 U.39/205 N.35/128 N.20/38/1/330 U.18/40/1/249 N.0 U.0) (07-NEVADA -3' 27-20 06-Nevada -3' 31-3 05-NEVADA +1' 22-14...SR: Nevada 18-15)
*San Jose State 27 - HAWAII 20—Greg McMackin’s rebuilt Hawaii Red Gun about as similar to June Jones’ previous editions as Sean Hannity’s political views are to those of Alan Colmes. And with QB Graunke possibly compromised by hand injury, Warriors won’t rediscover their old scoring magic anytime soon. Not sure undersized UH “D” can blitz SJS QB Reed into submission as did Stanford last week, and Spartans’ shutdown CBs Owens & Francies will come in handy vs. Red Gun. (07-Hawaii 42-SJS 35 (OT)...H.34-18 H.26/56 S.25/42 H.44/75/4/545 S.27/47/3/302 H.0 S.1) (07-Hawaii -17 42-35 (OT) 06-HAWAII -25 54-17 05-Hawaii -6 45-38...SR: EVEN 15-15-
ADDED GAMES
*KENTUCKY 29 - Western Kentucky 10—In 1st-ever meeting between these two, lean to excited WKU squad that has enough offensive skill to sneak inside number vs. nicked-up UK team (key LB M. Johnson & DT Lumpkin doubtful) that still has issues at WR (too many drops & incorrect routes, according to coaches) & STs (kicker Seiber missed 4 of 6 FGs vs. MTS). Wildcats, who narrowly escaped vs. M. Tenn. St., have huge lookahead toward Bama next week. (FIRST MEETING)
Arkansas State 33 - MEMPHIS 27—Sure, Memphis in double-revenge mode after dominating cross-river rival ASU for years. However, current reality finds Red Wolves holding substantially stronger hand. Visitor’s irrepressible jr. QB Leonard and much deeper well of defensive resolve will trump top-notch Tiger WR corps. (07-ASU 35-Mem. 31...A.24-17 M.45/177 A.39/134 A.16/37/0/255 M.12/25/0/218 A.2 M.0) (07-ARKANSAS ST. -4' 35-31 06-Arkansas St. +9 26-23...SR: Memphis 27-22-5)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 17—It’s payback time for OSU, which remembers Troy’s boisterous celebration LY after the Trojans whupped the Cowboys 41-23 in Alabama. State defense still has a few questions, but don’t look for the Cowboy offense, led by heady jr. Zac Robinson, to let up. OSU (bye week following Sept. 13 rout vs. Mo. St.) has extra time to prep for youthful Troy offense. (07-TROY 41-Osu 23...T.29-20 O.38/241 T.48/174 T.34/49/1/388 O.18/37/2/191 T.1 O.3) (07-TROY +10 41-23...SR: Troy 1-0)
*TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 20—Stark contrast in offensive production for these two teams, as FIU ranks last in scoring and total offense while Toledo scores 37 ppg & generates 396 ypg. Would draw the line at 3 TDs as defense-shy Rockets have potential lookahead to homecoming vs. MAC foe Ball State up next. (FIRST MEETING)
KANSAS STATE 48 - La.-Lafayette 20—Clever QB Michael Desormeaux and Louisiana offense must be respected. But undersized Cajun defense (633 yards at So. Miss) should be just what the doctor ordered for K-State offense after its spotty Wednesday play at Louisville. Juco RB Keithen Valentine should be of more help to QB Freeman, while HC Prince’s STs already have 4 TDs TY.(DNP...SR: Kansas State 2-0)
*RICE 42 - North Texas 27—After being manhandled by big, bad Texas, Rice & star QB Clement will welcome shot at little, sad North Texas. Very measured vote to dog, however, based on belief that Mean Green attack can land some shots of its own against wounded Owl defense. (DNP...SR: North Texas 1-0)
WRITE-IN GAME
TEXAS 38 - Arkansas 16—Youthful Razorbacks (4 ints.) humiliated 49-14 last week by ascending Alabama. But Arkansas always extra-focused vs. Texas, whose early schedule of Florida Atlantic, UTEP & Rice has been none too testing. UT and Colt McCoy will get their win, but humbled Hogs will fight all the way. (DNP...SR: Texas 55-21) TV-ABC
THE GOLD SHEET (3-6)
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10—Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender (Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta “D” might be under new HC Mike Smith, it’s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did Minnesota’s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs’ two wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on road to compensate.(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0) (07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1) (07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13—Kudos to Joe Flacco for his hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs (ask Atlanta’s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers’ zone blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco (who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week’sloss at Philly. Steelers “over” 42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV—ESPN (07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3) (07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)(07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24—The Rams’ back seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58 of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more! Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load forimproving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis “over” 17-8-1 its last 26 at home. (04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
Denver 31 - KANSAS CITY 20—While K.C. has started three different QBs in the first three games, Denver’s Jay Cutler has emerged as one of the brightest young passers in the league, with 714 YP and 6 TDs. And, while the Chiefs’ rebuilt OL has failed to meld, the remodeled Bronco front wall has allowed only one sack. Rebuilding K.C. 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9 at home. However, with the pointspread so uncharacteristic for this old AFC West rivalry, and with Chiefs able to run with Larry Johnson, might look for 10-3 series “over”trend to continue. (07-Denv 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1) (07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2) (07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 52-44)
CINCINNATI 23 - Cleveland 13—0-3 vs. 0-3. Bengals at least showed signs of life last week with their near win vs. the Giants, as Carson Palmer hit 27 of 39, Chris Perry the balanced offense with 70 YR, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh got loose for 12 receptions. Meanwhile, Cleveland offense (9 ppg) was stifled in Baltimore, with Derek Anderson (5 sacks, 3 ints.) under pressure, receivingcorps thin, and Jamal Lewis showing his age. Cincy 6-1 SU last 7 in series; “under” 7 of last 9 overall; Cleveland “under” 8 of last 9 overall. (07-CLE. 51-Cin 45...Ci.33-23 Cl.30/226 Ci.26/137 Ci.33/50/2/394 Cl.20/33/1/328 Cl.0 Ci.1) (07-CIN 19-Cle. 14...Cl.25-15 Ci.33/155 Cl.26/136 Cl.29/48/4/244 Ci.11/21/2/115 Ci.1 Cl.0) (07-CLEVELAND +7 51-45, CINCINNATI +2' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 35-34)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Houston 20—Houston has played Jacksonville tough over the years, covering 9 times in 12 series meetings. With the Jags’ offense hurting in the line and at WR, don’t mind looking for a continuation, as Texan offense had problems shaking off the rust in the red zone last week in Tennessee. With 2007 seventh-round pick Zach Diles locking up one OLB spot, Houston now has four rock-solid young guns in front seven (Diles, MLB DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye) to counter Jacksonville’s improving ground game (236 YR at Indy). Must acknowledge, however, the hurricane-disrupted Texans have yet to play a home game.
(07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2) (07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1) (07-JACKSONVILLE -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-5)
NY JETS 24 - Arizona 16—The NFL’s answer to a Jamie Moyer vs. Randy Johnson pitching matchup, with vet QBs Kurt Warner (37) & Brett Favre (38) each a bit long in the tooth, but still quite serviceable. Warner has had more chances to show his stuff early in the season, but expect that dynamic to gradually change as Favre gains familiarity and Eric Mangini (hopefully)loosens the handcuffs on the Jets’ offense, which was limited by conservative playcalling in first two games. Will count on improved N.Y. OL to help Favre getthings going. Arizona only 3-7 SU last 10 on road. (04-NY Jets -3 13-3...SR: NY Jets 4-2)
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 27—With N.O. defense thinned by injuries, it’s a good time for S.F. QB J.T. O’Sullivan to make his second road start. Niner offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who liked what he saw of O’Sullivan a couple of years ago while studying film of NFL Europe players, says the QB could develop into one of his best with O’Sullivan’s combination of mobility with a quick release. Offensive-minded Saints (4-11 last 15 as Superdome favorite) have hardly protected their turf very well lately, but they do have a penchant for going “over” (16 of last 22).
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16—Another battle of “fossil” QBs, with 36-year-old Gus Frerotte opposing 35-year-old Kerry Collins after each was tabbed to provide veteran leadership. But, with both teams limited in receiving talent, this might turn out to be more of a contest between young RBs Adrian Peterson (340 YR) of the Vikes and speedy Chris Johnson (276 YR) of the Titans. And Minnesota has been No. 1 against the run for the L2Ys. In ground-oriented, defensive affair, would look for Tennessee’s 13-7 “under” trend to extend. (04-MINNESOTA -6 20-3...SR: Minnesota 7-3)
TAMPA BAY 24 - Green Bay 16—Aaron Rodgers of the Packers took his first loss as a starter Sunday night vs. Dallas, but he still has 4 TDs & no ints. TY, showing a better delivery & composure than many expected. However, the heat and noisy crowd of Raymond James has done in many a good QB, as Brett Favre showed with Green Bay many a time. The Bucs won last week in Chicago despite 4 turnovers, with Brian Griese completing 38 of 67 passes! With Ryan Grant still not 100% due to his sore hamstring, will side with rejuvenated veteran Griese and home-loving’ Bucs (7-2 last 9 as a home favorite). (05-Tampa Bay -3' 17-16...SR: Green Bay 30-19-1)
San Diego 26 - OAKLAND 13—The situation in Oakland seems to have at least one bizarre twist each week, with the team’s PR department last week distributing a column critical of HC Lane Kiffin. Mike Shanahan has pointed out that he lasted one year and four games, and this is ominous Week Four of Year Two for Kiffin. More importantly, S.D.’s talented CBs capable of taking adequate care of the Raiders’ WRs, allowing Chargers to overload their injury/suspension-thinned defense vs. the formidable Oakland ground game. With S.D. 9-0 SU last 9 in this rivalry (and 9-1 last 10 vs. the line), will side with Philip & L.T. over JaMarcus & “Run D.Mc.” (07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3) (07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-40-2)
DALLAS 27 - Washington 23—By all appearances so far, Dallas appears to by Super Bowl bound. But this is a lonnng season, and new Washington HC Jim Zorn seems to have done wonders with the Washington offense, boosting the confidence of big, mobile, strong-armed QB Jason Campbell by allowing him to fire away to talented targets Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris Cooley. Scouts report Redskins happy they finally have their top cover guys (Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Fred Smoot) all healthy again. Washington 5-1 vs. spread last 6 in series. (07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0) (07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASHINGTON -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-38-2)
*Philadelphia 27 - CHICAGO 20—Will side with the experience of Donovan McNabb to make game-deciding plays over the still-evolving Kyle Orton (2 ints. last week) vs. Philly pass rush (9 sacks last week). Bears again perfecting the art of the close defeat (back-to-back 3-point losses), with offense becoming increasingly reliant upon the work of impressive rookie RB Matt Forte (on pace for 1600-yard season). Eagles (check status of Brian Westbrook’s ankle) still seething from LY’s meeting at the Linc, when then-Chicago QB Brian Griese drove Bears the length of the field without a timeout for last-second win. Compelling “over” trends of note (Philly “over” 11-6 last 17 away; Bears “over” 16-4 last 20 at Soldier Field). TV—NBC (07-Chi. 19-PHIL. 16...P.21-19 P.25/123 C.23/72 C.27/41/0/314 P.21/34/0/211 C.0 P.0) (07-Chicago +5' 19-16...SR: Chicago 26-10-1)
Pointwise College Key Releases
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 45 - Buffalo 20 - (4:00) -- As we've written before, the Chips are back in their element. Despite LW's last-minute loss to Purdue, note 26-16 FD & 440-344 yd edges, & have to see patented bounceback. Are +114 pts ATS in last 12 league tilts. Bull QB Willy: 10 TDs, but suddenly no run "O".
Cincinnati 41 - AKRON 17 - (3:30) -- Pike for Grutza was certainly no detriment for Bearcats in rout of Miami-O. He was 20-of-24 for 241 yds & 3 TDs. Andcheck overland domination in 2-of-3 games to date. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in Zip tilts (by 42 pts TY), & Akron allowed 35.5 ppg in 43 outings previous to Army.
Purdue 23 - NOTRE DAME 14 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Irish still in search of an "O", ranking 96th, with 203-16 RY deficit at MichSt. Clausen just 6/6 this yr, but check 14.8 ppg "D" last 5 outings. Boilers in off last minute win (46-yd Sheetsrun; he has 271 RYs last 2 weeks). And Painter has had his way with NoDame.
BALL STATE 50 - Kent State 20 - (12:00) -- Flashes now on 0-10 ATS slide by 145½ pts. In off 667-yd defensive effort vs Lafayette, & have allowed 46 ppg in their 2 roadsters. BSt smoking with 4-0 start, with Lewis on fire (166 RYs & 4 TDs) in 24-pt cover at Indiana. And try Davis' 10 TD passes so far. Romper!
PENN STATE 41 - Illinois 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Lions just keep on doing it. Now have a 211-44 pt edge for the year, with an enviously balanced "O": 1,182 RYs, 1,062 PYs, behind Royster, Clark, Green, etc. Illini are solid DD dogs (Wise Points), but are down a notch from LY's Rose Bowl team, despite presence of Juice at QB. Needed 27-yd fumble return to take Lafayette LW. Lions, easily.
Northern Illinois 48 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (1:00) -- Finally some "O" for the Eagles after an 83-27 deficit in their first 2 lined games. But they lost their last HG by 26 pts ATS, & have allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, & 51 pts in their last 6 lined games. NIU nailed first win for Kill. Averaging 34 ppg & a solid run "D".
Colorado 20 - FLORIDA STATE 16 - (3:30 @ Jacksonville) -- 'Noles came from 57.5 ppg to just 3, in a week. Seven TOs vs Wake, including 5 INTs from QBsPonder & Richardson. Can't run, but just 48 RYpg "D", so CU Stewart (166 RYs vs WVa) will be tested. And Hawkins may open up overhead lanes. Tite.
Oregon 48 - WASHINGTON STATE 14 - (6:15) -- Duck QB situation worse by the week, with Masoli (concussion) now hurting, after losing Roper. Still, a 227-38 RY edge in loss to Boise, along with 237 PYs. WSt lost its last 3 HGs by 38, 18½, 49½ pts ATS, & has the nation's worst rushing "D". No other way.
THURSDAY
TULANE 37 - Smu 17 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Wave as this solid a chalk certainly a rarity, but have allowed only 40 FDs in 3 games, & are 5-1 ATS by 67½ of late, with Anderson & Moore providing the "O". Pony "D": 44 ppg last 10 contests,including 55, 56, & 43 pts in last 3 RGs. Mitchell: 7 INTs last 2 games. Greenies.
So California 45 - OREGON STATE 13 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Sanchez latest USC Heisman candidate: 4 TDs in rout of OhioSt. Troy has a 1,149-523 yd edge in the early going, with an 87-10 pt advantage. Now +78½ pts ATS in last 5 tilts. Beavs off the schneid with 38-pt rout of hapless Hawaii, & Moevao has thrown for 923 yds, but still no overland game, & chalk is 17-7 ATS in OregSt contests.
FRIDAY
LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 27 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Only one way to go when UConn travels. Huskies are 0-4 ATS away of late by 59½ pts. Brown now at 716yds & 10 TDs, but 'Ville woke up the ghosts with 38-pt, 578-yd effort vs KanSt, led by Cantwell & Anderson (176 RYs, 3 TDs). And no TOs after 7 in previous 2.
SATURDAY
WAKE FOREST 44 - Navy 27 - (3:45) -- Wake in FlaSt/Clemson sandwich, &still seeking an overland game, but opportunistic Deacs have 15 takeaways sofar, held 'Noles to 3 pts, & winning breeds winning. Mids beat Rutgers in final 2:06, but still allowing 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 tilts. Skinner the difference.
Western Michigan 31 - TEMPLE 20 - (2:00) -- A taste of reality for Owls in PSt massacre. Check a 546-138 yd deficit in that 45-3 drubbing. Were 87½ pt ahead of the spot previous 13, so competitive. WM has allowed 34 ppg in lined games, but Hiller has thrown for 9 TDs past 2 wks, & had 300-yd edge yr ago.
WEST VIRGINIA 52 - Marshall 14 - (3:30) -- Implausible 17 pts combined for Mounties last 2 wks (just 72 & 43 PYs), despite 311 RYs at Colo. Herd stuckit to us LW, by snapping their 9-game road slide, in upset of SoMiss, with RB Marshall motoring for 252 yds last 2 wks. But call angry Mounties in bounceback.
Pittsburgh 27 - SYRACUSE 10 - (12:00) -- No 100 RY games for McCoy as yet, with underachieving Panthers in off mere 13 FD effort hosting Iowa. The dog is 17-3 ATS in Pitt games, with 2 of the 3 misses by 4 & 1½ pts, but the Orange have a 342-114 pt deficit as a HD since LY. Just a 23-22 FD edge vs N'Eastern.
Michigan State 33 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Check Hoosiers losing to a MAC team for first time in last 21 meetings, with 42-20 home embarrassment vs BallSt. QB Lewis is a force: 166 RYs, 159 PYs LW, but that "D" not to be trusted. Spartan RB Ringer has 483 yds last 2 wks, & 9 TDs for the yr. Rolled last yr.
IOWA 31 - Northwestern 20 - (12:00) -- The dog is 13-4 ATS in 'Cat games, & note allowing just 4 RYs in LW's win over OhioU. But Bacher threw 4 INTs inthat one (also 3 vs Iowa LY), & RB Sutton is hurt again. Hawk RB Greene has 10.0, 6.0, & 6.4 ypr last 3 games, & Iowa has a 105-8 pt edge at home so far.
Virginia 22 - DUKE 20 - (12:00) -- Both teams had last week off, & it could not have come at a better time for the 'Cavs, who have a 97-17 pt deficit in lined affairs to date, along with a 600-63 RY deficit. Fourth straight HG for the Imps, who've covered their last 3 games by 22½ pts. But still can't trust Duke as fav.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - North Carolina 20 - (12:00) -- Regrouping game for Tars, who led VaTech 17-3 in final minute of the 3rd, only to lose 20-17. Had 121 yds in penalties in that one, & now may have lost QB Yates. 'Canes were at 7.8 ppg, before 41 at TexA&M, behind QB Marve & RB Cooper. A bit of a payback.
FLORIDA 41 - Mississippi 13 - (12:30) -- Gators were outstatted in 30-6 win at Tennessee, but no denying a rush "D", which has allowed only 60, 41, & 96 ydsthus far. And what a weapon KR James is, to complement the steady Tebow. Reb QB Snead in off 4 INT effort in loss to Vandy, despite nearly doubling 'Dore yardage. But no "O" TDs in that one for OleMiss, & Gators 7-1 ATS as chalks.
LSU 26 - Mississippi State 10 - (7:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. The Bengalshave covered 10-of-11 vs 'Dogs, & have allowed only 52, 44, & 70 RYs so far. RB Scott rolled up 132 yds LW, but Lsu needed TD in final 1:03 to take Auburn. Solid MSt "D" was skunked for 438 RYs in 38-7 loss to GaTech, & only 1 "O" TD for 'Dogs in last 9 quarters. But Visitor is 17-4 ATS in Tiger games. 'Nother.
EAST CAROLINA 34 - Houston 27 - (3:30) -- Call this along lines of LY. The dog is 5-0 ATS in Pirate games lately, by 77½ pts. Balanced "O", but in off OT loss to NCSt. Coogs can't stop the run, but nearly climbed completely out of 17 & 21 pt holes last 2 wks. Eschewed tying FG LW. But Keenum: 16 TDs so far.
OHIO STATE 31 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Still no Wells for Bucks, but Pryor (true frosh QB) lit a fire vs Troy with 4 TD passes. That one was just 14-10 inthe 4th. OSt now minus 69½ pts ATS last 6 outings. Minny at 4-0 with 13-2 TO edge. RB Eskridge (192 RYs, 5 TDs in 2 games) & Co may keep it close.
NEBRASKA 22 - Virginia Tech 19 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The last 4 lined games involving the Hokies saw final scores of 24-21, 27-22, 20-17, & 20-17, so whynot another? Just 108th on "O", with QB Taylor in off 2 INT game. Neb: just 138 & 99 RYs first 2 tilts. Nowhere near Husker 48.3 ppg average last 4 HGs.
Stanford 27 - WASHINGTON 24 - ( 10:00) -- Rested Wash has heartbreaking 28-27 loss to BYU, bookended with 44-10 & 55-14 defeats. Can't run, & surely can't stop anyone. Cards have a 128-54 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs, but held SJSt to just 38 2nd half yds, & Gerhart is motoring (148 RYs LW). Mild upset.
CALIFORNIA 41 - Colorado State 14 - (6:00) -- Check the Bears' last 2 games:49½ pt cover; 32-pt ATS loss. And note Cal coming from 391 RYs to just 38(Best: from 200 to 25). Have to figure bounceback, as Rams in off nearly blowing all of 21-pt lead, with endzone INT on final play. Are 5-21 ATS of late.
GEORGIA 20 - Alabama 19 - (7:45) -- What a "D"! Bulldogs have allowed just 22 RYs combined past 2 wks, against SoCaro & ArizSt. Moreno: another 149 yds, with QB Stafford & WR Green the perfect complements. Tide hammered Arkies with the big play: 87, 25, 31, 62 yd plays, with 63 & 74 yd INT returns. GA "D" obviously horse of a different color, but 'Bama stayed with 'em yr ago.
Tennessee 19 - AUBURN 16 - (3:30) -- Both of these combatants came up shortin SEC biggies LW, with the Tigers losing to LSU in the final 1:03, managing just 70 RYs. Had allowed just 5 ppg entering that one, & rank 10th in the land on "D". Vols outstatted Fla, in their 30-6 setback, being stopped at the 1 twice. Were nicely balanced before that game, & bit of return to form. Call the upset.
MICHIGAN 27 - Wisconsin 22 - (3:30) -- That Badger overland game opened at 404 yds, but has managed just 158 & 154 since. But still perfect. Not that theWolverines are anything to write home about, with their 18.7 ppg "O". Six Tos in loss to Irish. But Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, & 34 pts last 4 Big10 RGs.
CLEMSON 26 - Maryland 20 - (12:00) -- Well, Tiger RB Davis finally got going in rout of SoCaroSt (3 TDs), but Harper managed 2 INTs in that 54-0 romp. Fact is CU is 0-5 ATS lately, by 46 pts. The dog is 49½ pts ahead of the line in MD games, with Terps nicely balanced all year (1 punt LW). They're worth a shot.
Fresno State 30 - UCLA 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Bruins at rock bottom now, with no TDs the past 2 wks, along with a 90-10 pt deficit. Only 11 FDs vs 'Zona, with just 81 PYs from Craft, & injuries taking their toll. FSt "D": from 10 ppg to 54 in LW's win at Toledo, stopping 2-pt OT try. But allowed only 304 yds vs Wisc.
Bowling Green 27 - WYOMING 17 - (4:00) -- A couple of teams plagued by the TO. Eight in last 2 games for BG, which outplayed Boise 2 wks ago,& six by the Cowboys in LW's 44-0 wipeout loss to BYU. WY ranks 115th in total "O", & 113th in total "D", & is on unheard of 0-11-1 ATS run. Not about to buck it.
OKLAHOMA 34 - Tcu 17 - (7:00) -- In '05, Frogs pulled off upset (Wise Points), & are loaded again. Check a 96-39 FD edge TY, allowing only 30.5 RYpg. Are 79½ pt ahead of the spot in their last 8 games, with QB Dalton leading a finely balanced "D". But Okies are another matter, altogether. Bradford: 47-of-59 for 699 yds & 10 TDs in their 2 lined games to date. But can't jump in either way.
SOUTH CAROLINA 33 - Uab 14 - (7:00) -- Gamecocks very unimpressive in the early going, despite a solid "D". Can't run, & another 2 INTs by Smelley LW, leading Wofford by just 16-13 until the final 1:58. Blazers snapped 9-game slide (AlabamaSt), with 223 PYs & 121 RYs from Webb. But 41 ppg "D" last 9.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Army 10 - (7:00) -- Ags in Miami/OklaSt sandwich, & hardly a safe play here, as they've lost their first 2 HGs by 22 & 15 pts ATS, & can't run, altho Johnson (for McGee: shoulder) has 6 TD passes last 2 games. First RG for the Cadets, which have 85-20 pt deficit thus far, & 12 TOs in their 3 games.
South Florida 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (7:30) -- No Grothe TDs, either running or passing, in narrow win over FlaInt (just 2nd time in 30 games), the Bull "D" is smothering: 6, 12, 9 FDs in 3-of-4 games. 'Pack rode 3 Wilson TD passes to upset of ECaro, so note 30 pts vs 29th rated Pirate "D". Pass.
UTEP 24 - Central Florida 21 - (8:00) -- Miners have unveiled a decent run "D" (122 yds vs Texas; 37 yds LW), but are hurting at RB, & now QB Vittatoe is out (ankle). Allowing 39.3 ppg, but the Knights have less than 200 RYs combined in their past 2 games, & have been a conference road flop. Mildest of plays hr.
New Mexico 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 37 - (8:00) -- Lobos shellshocked off 56 pt, 606 yd defensive effort vs Tulsa, & now QB Porterie is hurting. Shootout LY, with Holbrook's 437 PYs & 4 TDs, similar to his 329 PYs & 5 TDs in snapping 6-game losing skein LW. Lobos lost last 2 RGs by 37-0, 28-10, & 56-14 counts.
SAN DIEGO STATE 31 - Idaho 21 - (8:00) -- Worst of the worst here. SdiegoSt stands at 0-3, with a 293-6 RY deficit in its last game, while managing only 104 RYs for the year. Allowing 41 ppg in last 5 lined games. Vandals 1-11 ATS, & in off 356-84 RY deficit vs previously 0-3 UtahSt. Anyone remotely interested?
UNLV 33 - Nevada 27 - (10:00) -- Rebels in off a pair of 3-pt OT wins. Still no "D" (32.6 ppg last 25 contests), but showing decent balance, behind RB Summers & QB Clayton. Reno also defensive midgets, allowing 41.6 ppg in its last 10 outings, but note amassing 488 yds vs TexTech 2 wks back. Revenge takes it.
San Jose State 30 - HAWAII 20 - (12:05) -- Hate going against home team in SJSt contests (a 293-92 pt deficit away since last yr). Held to minus 24 yds in4th quarter at Stanford, but note QB Reed hitting his first 12 & first 16 passes last 2 wks. 'Bows have 142-27 pt deficit in their last 3 lined games. Spartans.
TEXAS 49 - Arkansas 14 - (2:00) -- This one was moved back a couple of wks, due to Hurricane Ike, but it makes little difference. Another 4 TDs for McCoy in LW's drubbing of Rice, so he has set a school-record with 62, & is 63-of-81 for the season. 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52, 42, & 52 pts in their last 5 wins, & that Arky "D" is ripe for the picking (39 ppg last 9). QB Dick: 3 INTs LW. Rout!
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Only way to go, as the Broncos are a spectacular 19-3 ATS as conference HFs of <28 pts. Check QB Moore with 3 TDs & 386 yds in his first start (upset of powerful Oregon). That 227-38 RY deficit may be cause for concern, but Tech won't to much denting of the Boise "D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY 31 - Western Kentucky 13
Arkansas State 23 - MEMPHIS 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 20
TOLEDO 37 - Fla International 24
KANSAS STATE 28 - La-Lafayette 17
RICE 28 - North Texas 27
Florida Atlanta 21 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20
Pointwise NFL Key Releases
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- It continues. Thus far, the visitor in games involving the Raiders is a perfect 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by a combined total of 51 pts. Oakland actually led the Bills, 23-14, with 4 minutes remaining, before that collapse. We say "actually", because the Raiders had a 25-10 FD deficit, while coming from 300 RYs at KC to just 98 at Buffalo. The Raiders catch the Chargers off their Monday Nighter with the Jets, but that should matter little, a Oakland is 6-15 ATS off a loss of <3 pts, is 2-15 ATS as a division host, is 1-9 ATS vs the Chargers, & a perfect 0-6 ATS as series host.
Cleveland 17 - CINCINNATI 16 - (1:00) -- A couple of very disappointing teams meet here. The Browns have said good-bye to LY's super "O", scoring just 8, 14, 20, 10, 6, & 10 pts in their last 6 outings (11.3 ppg). No rushing "O", & in off just 11 FDs in loss to the Ravens. Cincy took the Giants into OT, but have a 523-255 RY deficit for the season, altho Palmer was back in form a bit, with 286 PYs, after a combined 223 in his first 2 starts. The Bengals have reached 20 pts in just 2 of their last 8 games, with the dog covering 10-2 in their last dozen outings. Meshes nicely with Browns' spectacular 16-2 ATS log after allowing 27+ pts. And Cincy is 1-10 ATS at home vs a foe off a DD SU loss.
Buffalo 34 - ST LOUIS 13 - (4:05) -- Until things change, there is only one way to go when the Rams take the field. They are now not only on a 3-16 SU slide, but are 3-15-1 ATS since last year, accumulating a 116-29 pt deficit just this year, as well as allowing 39.3 ppg in their last 6 outings. They have yet to reach 200 PYs, have a 77-35 FD deficit, as well as a total yard 1,374-607 short end. The Bills are 3-0 for the first time since '92, & enter off 25-10 FD & 34:27-25:33 time edges, but a narrow 24-23 win. Lynch & Edwards have this "O" purring.Buff 17-9 ATS lately, & 26-8 ATS off a win of <3 pts. Extension of Ram futility.
CHICAGO 20 - Philadelphia 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Check it out. Nine sacks for the Eagles in their win over the Steelers. Philly had been held below 18 pts on 10 occasions LY, but opened with 38 & 37 pt outbursts. However, Westbrook is hurting (ankle: just 5 carries vs the Packers), & McNabb was shaken up as well. The Bears must regroup off blowing a 10-pt lead in the final 3:15 to the Bucs, losing despite a 158-47 RY edge. Forte is now at 304 RYs. The Bears are +68½ pts ATS in their last 6 games, & the dog is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in Chicago tilts. And the Bears are 13-0 ATS HDs off 2 losses vs a foe off a win.
CAROLINA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- We know that this one bucks prevailing wisdom whenever the Panthers take the field, namely sticking with the dog, as the pup is now 54-29 ATS in Carolina games lately. As if that weren't enough, the visitor is on an 8-0 spread run in Panther division games. But the time is now for Carolina to come storming back, following their dismal play at Minny, in which Delhomme was sacked 5 times, with key fumbles & 12 penalties putting the nails in that particular coffin. The Falcs have been splendid at home with Ryan 21-of-31, but he was just 13-of-31 with 2 picks in his lone RG. Ditto RB Turner: 324 RYs at home, but just 42 away. Falcons are 4-11 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 1-7 ATS Sept dogs off a win of more than 7 pts. Carolina the play.
Denver 30 - KANSAS CITY 27 - (1:00) -- Broncos 3-0 for first time since '03, but that "D" sure is vulnerable, a they've allowed 28 ppg, the most for any AFC team, & stingier than only the hapless Lions & Rams. Cutler a splendid 8/2 for the year, with Marshall snagging 24 passes the past 2 weeks. Note that this is Denver's 2nd division RG, & that they won their first such setup, 41-14. The Chiefs have dropped 12 straight on the field, with Thigpen an anemic 27-of-73 thus far, so hardly the answer. KC: just 12.2 ppg in its last 11 games. Sure, Johnson motored for 121 yds last week, but still a 38-14 loss. The host is 8-2 ATS in Bronco games, but the visitor is 10-3 ATS in Chief contests. Denver is 17-9 off allowing 30+ pts. Chiefs are 11-0 ATS in division play, off allowing 34+ pts, & 36-13 ATS as HDs. And backing Denver as chalk not profitable of late.
JACKSONVILLE 22 - Houston 19 - (1:00) -- Jags avoided 0-3 start on 51-yd Scobee FG in final 0:04 vs the Colts. Not only that, but their overland game came to life with Jones-Drew & Taylor both over 100 RYs. Throw in a 16-of-22 showing for Garrard, along with a 41:35-18:25 time edge, & shades of '07 beckon. Texans still searching for missing ingredient, after managing only 12 pts after getting inside the Titan 14 six times. Schaub: just 1 TD pass, with 5 INTs so far, & check a 69-29 scoring deficit. But also check Slaton with 116 RYs (6.4 ypr) vs Tennessee. Houston has a 277-148 pt deficit in its last 8 RGs, but is 10-2 ATS in division play off a pair of losses. We'll take the points.
Arizona 20 - NEW YORK JETS 16 - (1:00) -- Well it had to happen. No TOs for the Cards in their first 2 games of the season: 2 wins & covers. But 2 miscues at Washington, as they tried to go 3-0 for the 1st time since '74, with a 24-17 loss the result. And that one also snapped their 10-game streak of scoring at least 20 pts, but 'Zona is still scoring at a 30.7 ppg clip over its last 11 contests. And Warner is going along decently, with 6 TDs & only 1 pick for the season. The Jets are in off their Monday Nighter with the Chargers, & are just 8-23 ATS as Sept HFs. The Cardinals, meanwhile are 16-6 ATS off a SU loss of <8 pts.
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 13 - (1:00) -- Wow! After failing to reach 18 pts on 13 occasions since LY, the Niners explode for 33 & 31 pts in back-toback weeks. Check their 35:54-24:06 time edge in their win over the Lions, with Gore cranking out 130 RYs, & O'Sullivan tossing a pair of TDs (no INTs). First of 3 HGs for the Saints, who haven't normally done all that well as hosts (12-24 ATS run, & 6-15 ATS as a HF off a SU loss), but who've succeeded nicely vs the Niners: 9-2 ATS of late, including LY's 31-10 win in 'Frisco. The Saints nearly came all the way back from an 18-pt deficit at Denver, with Brees & Bush leading the way to 27 FDs & >500 yds. We'll call for it to continue here.
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16 - (1:00) -- No questioning the fine play of the Titans, as they stand at 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by 10, 18, & 14½ pts. Are 3-0 for just the 3rd time, & have held their last 7 opponents under 18 pts. And check Collins' 28-of-47 the past couple of weeks. But the Vikes are rarely out of a game, with their 2 losses this year coming by just 3 &1½ pts. Not only that, but Frerotte (for Jackson) has breathed new life into this team, with RB Peterson now at 340 yds. And check allowing only 25 & 47 RYs past 2 wks. This could easily go down to the final gun, with pts at a premium. Mild dog call.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Green Bay 17 - (1:00) -- Battle of old NFC Central powers meeting here. Buccaneer QB Griese set a franchise record by throwing no less than 67 passes, in Tampa's OT upset of the Bears, connecting on 38 of them for 407 yds, altho 3 wound up in Chicago hands. Tampa trailed 24-14 with just 3:15 remaining in that one, by the way. The Pack couldn't get it done at home vs the Cowboys, but are still a formidable play, covering 16-6-1 lately, & 20-5 SU since the windup of the '06 campaign. Bucs are 32-17 ATS as non division hosts, while the Pack is 0-8 ATS as a RD off a SU loss to NFL East foe.
DALLAS 30 - Washington 17 - (4:15) -- Home team is the way to go in 'Skin games thus far, as Washington has compiled 53 pts, 46 FDs, & 778 yds the past 2 weeks (both played at Fedex). But in their only RG, they were held to just 11 FDs in that opening day loss to the Giants. Campbell is in the groove, with a nice 69.7% completion rate the past 2 wks (46-of-66), & has thrown for 4 TDs, without an INT. But taking to the road vs this dedicated Cowboy outfit is a bit too much. Check 488 & 453 yds in 2 of their 3 outings, with Romo at 5 TDs already. 'Boys are only 10-21 ATS as DD chalks lately, but mild chalk call.
MONDAY
PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - (8:35) -- First RG for the Ravens, who have opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs; 631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 Rys the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7 ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 45 - Buffalo 20 - (4:00) -- As we've written before, the Chips are back in their element. Despite LW's last-minute loss to Purdue, note 26-16 FD & 440-344 yd edges, & have to see patented bounceback. Are +114 pts ATS in last 12 league tilts. Bull QB Willy: 10 TDs, but suddenly no run "O".
Cincinnati 41 - AKRON 17 - (3:30) -- Pike for Grutza was certainly no detriment for Bearcats in rout of Miami-O. He was 20-of-24 for 241 yds & 3 TDs. Andcheck overland domination in 2-of-3 games to date. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in Zip tilts (by 42 pts TY), & Akron allowed 35.5 ppg in 43 outings previous to Army.
Purdue 23 - NOTRE DAME 14 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Irish still in search of an "O", ranking 96th, with 203-16 RY deficit at MichSt. Clausen just 6/6 this yr, but check 14.8 ppg "D" last 5 outings. Boilers in off last minute win (46-yd Sheetsrun; he has 271 RYs last 2 weeks). And Painter has had his way with NoDame.
BALL STATE 50 - Kent State 20 - (12:00) -- Flashes now on 0-10 ATS slide by 145½ pts. In off 667-yd defensive effort vs Lafayette, & have allowed 46 ppg in their 2 roadsters. BSt smoking with 4-0 start, with Lewis on fire (166 RYs & 4 TDs) in 24-pt cover at Indiana. And try Davis' 10 TD passes so far. Romper!
PENN STATE 41 - Illinois 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Lions just keep on doing it. Now have a 211-44 pt edge for the year, with an enviously balanced "O": 1,182 RYs, 1,062 PYs, behind Royster, Clark, Green, etc. Illini are solid DD dogs (Wise Points), but are down a notch from LY's Rose Bowl team, despite presence of Juice at QB. Needed 27-yd fumble return to take Lafayette LW. Lions, easily.
Northern Illinois 48 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (1:00) -- Finally some "O" for the Eagles after an 83-27 deficit in their first 2 lined games. But they lost their last HG by 26 pts ATS, & have allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, & 51 pts in their last 6 lined games. NIU nailed first win for Kill. Averaging 34 ppg & a solid run "D".
Colorado 20 - FLORIDA STATE 16 - (3:30 @ Jacksonville) -- 'Noles came from 57.5 ppg to just 3, in a week. Seven TOs vs Wake, including 5 INTs from QBsPonder & Richardson. Can't run, but just 48 RYpg "D", so CU Stewart (166 RYs vs WVa) will be tested. And Hawkins may open up overhead lanes. Tite.
Oregon 48 - WASHINGTON STATE 14 - (6:15) -- Duck QB situation worse by the week, with Masoli (concussion) now hurting, after losing Roper. Still, a 227-38 RY edge in loss to Boise, along with 237 PYs. WSt lost its last 3 HGs by 38, 18½, 49½ pts ATS, & has the nation's worst rushing "D". No other way.
THURSDAY
TULANE 37 - Smu 17 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Wave as this solid a chalk certainly a rarity, but have allowed only 40 FDs in 3 games, & are 5-1 ATS by 67½ of late, with Anderson & Moore providing the "O". Pony "D": 44 ppg last 10 contests,including 55, 56, & 43 pts in last 3 RGs. Mitchell: 7 INTs last 2 games. Greenies.
So California 45 - OREGON STATE 13 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Sanchez latest USC Heisman candidate: 4 TDs in rout of OhioSt. Troy has a 1,149-523 yd edge in the early going, with an 87-10 pt advantage. Now +78½ pts ATS in last 5 tilts. Beavs off the schneid with 38-pt rout of hapless Hawaii, & Moevao has thrown for 923 yds, but still no overland game, & chalk is 17-7 ATS in OregSt contests.
FRIDAY
LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 27 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Only one way to go when UConn travels. Huskies are 0-4 ATS away of late by 59½ pts. Brown now at 716yds & 10 TDs, but 'Ville woke up the ghosts with 38-pt, 578-yd effort vs KanSt, led by Cantwell & Anderson (176 RYs, 3 TDs). And no TOs after 7 in previous 2.
SATURDAY
WAKE FOREST 44 - Navy 27 - (3:45) -- Wake in FlaSt/Clemson sandwich, &still seeking an overland game, but opportunistic Deacs have 15 takeaways sofar, held 'Noles to 3 pts, & winning breeds winning. Mids beat Rutgers in final 2:06, but still allowing 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 tilts. Skinner the difference.
Western Michigan 31 - TEMPLE 20 - (2:00) -- A taste of reality for Owls in PSt massacre. Check a 546-138 yd deficit in that 45-3 drubbing. Were 87½ pt ahead of the spot previous 13, so competitive. WM has allowed 34 ppg in lined games, but Hiller has thrown for 9 TDs past 2 wks, & had 300-yd edge yr ago.
WEST VIRGINIA 52 - Marshall 14 - (3:30) -- Implausible 17 pts combined for Mounties last 2 wks (just 72 & 43 PYs), despite 311 RYs at Colo. Herd stuckit to us LW, by snapping their 9-game road slide, in upset of SoMiss, with RB Marshall motoring for 252 yds last 2 wks. But call angry Mounties in bounceback.
Pittsburgh 27 - SYRACUSE 10 - (12:00) -- No 100 RY games for McCoy as yet, with underachieving Panthers in off mere 13 FD effort hosting Iowa. The dog is 17-3 ATS in Pitt games, with 2 of the 3 misses by 4 & 1½ pts, but the Orange have a 342-114 pt deficit as a HD since LY. Just a 23-22 FD edge vs N'Eastern.
Michigan State 33 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Check Hoosiers losing to a MAC team for first time in last 21 meetings, with 42-20 home embarrassment vs BallSt. QB Lewis is a force: 166 RYs, 159 PYs LW, but that "D" not to be trusted. Spartan RB Ringer has 483 yds last 2 wks, & 9 TDs for the yr. Rolled last yr.
IOWA 31 - Northwestern 20 - (12:00) -- The dog is 13-4 ATS in 'Cat games, & note allowing just 4 RYs in LW's win over OhioU. But Bacher threw 4 INTs inthat one (also 3 vs Iowa LY), & RB Sutton is hurt again. Hawk RB Greene has 10.0, 6.0, & 6.4 ypr last 3 games, & Iowa has a 105-8 pt edge at home so far.
Virginia 22 - DUKE 20 - (12:00) -- Both teams had last week off, & it could not have come at a better time for the 'Cavs, who have a 97-17 pt deficit in lined affairs to date, along with a 600-63 RY deficit. Fourth straight HG for the Imps, who've covered their last 3 games by 22½ pts. But still can't trust Duke as fav.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - North Carolina 20 - (12:00) -- Regrouping game for Tars, who led VaTech 17-3 in final minute of the 3rd, only to lose 20-17. Had 121 yds in penalties in that one, & now may have lost QB Yates. 'Canes were at 7.8 ppg, before 41 at TexA&M, behind QB Marve & RB Cooper. A bit of a payback.
FLORIDA 41 - Mississippi 13 - (12:30) -- Gators were outstatted in 30-6 win at Tennessee, but no denying a rush "D", which has allowed only 60, 41, & 96 ydsthus far. And what a weapon KR James is, to complement the steady Tebow. Reb QB Snead in off 4 INT effort in loss to Vandy, despite nearly doubling 'Dore yardage. But no "O" TDs in that one for OleMiss, & Gators 7-1 ATS as chalks.
LSU 26 - Mississippi State 10 - (7:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. The Bengalshave covered 10-of-11 vs 'Dogs, & have allowed only 52, 44, & 70 RYs so far. RB Scott rolled up 132 yds LW, but Lsu needed TD in final 1:03 to take Auburn. Solid MSt "D" was skunked for 438 RYs in 38-7 loss to GaTech, & only 1 "O" TD for 'Dogs in last 9 quarters. But Visitor is 17-4 ATS in Tiger games. 'Nother.
EAST CAROLINA 34 - Houston 27 - (3:30) -- Call this along lines of LY. The dog is 5-0 ATS in Pirate games lately, by 77½ pts. Balanced "O", but in off OT loss to NCSt. Coogs can't stop the run, but nearly climbed completely out of 17 & 21 pt holes last 2 wks. Eschewed tying FG LW. But Keenum: 16 TDs so far.
OHIO STATE 31 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Still no Wells for Bucks, but Pryor (true frosh QB) lit a fire vs Troy with 4 TD passes. That one was just 14-10 inthe 4th. OSt now minus 69½ pts ATS last 6 outings. Minny at 4-0 with 13-2 TO edge. RB Eskridge (192 RYs, 5 TDs in 2 games) & Co may keep it close.
NEBRASKA 22 - Virginia Tech 19 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The last 4 lined games involving the Hokies saw final scores of 24-21, 27-22, 20-17, & 20-17, so whynot another? Just 108th on "O", with QB Taylor in off 2 INT game. Neb: just 138 & 99 RYs first 2 tilts. Nowhere near Husker 48.3 ppg average last 4 HGs.
Stanford 27 - WASHINGTON 24 - ( 10:00) -- Rested Wash has heartbreaking 28-27 loss to BYU, bookended with 44-10 & 55-14 defeats. Can't run, & surely can't stop anyone. Cards have a 128-54 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs, but held SJSt to just 38 2nd half yds, & Gerhart is motoring (148 RYs LW). Mild upset.
CALIFORNIA 41 - Colorado State 14 - (6:00) -- Check the Bears' last 2 games:49½ pt cover; 32-pt ATS loss. And note Cal coming from 391 RYs to just 38(Best: from 200 to 25). Have to figure bounceback, as Rams in off nearly blowing all of 21-pt lead, with endzone INT on final play. Are 5-21 ATS of late.
GEORGIA 20 - Alabama 19 - (7:45) -- What a "D"! Bulldogs have allowed just 22 RYs combined past 2 wks, against SoCaro & ArizSt. Moreno: another 149 yds, with QB Stafford & WR Green the perfect complements. Tide hammered Arkies with the big play: 87, 25, 31, 62 yd plays, with 63 & 74 yd INT returns. GA "D" obviously horse of a different color, but 'Bama stayed with 'em yr ago.
Tennessee 19 - AUBURN 16 - (3:30) -- Both of these combatants came up shortin SEC biggies LW, with the Tigers losing to LSU in the final 1:03, managing just 70 RYs. Had allowed just 5 ppg entering that one, & rank 10th in the land on "D". Vols outstatted Fla, in their 30-6 setback, being stopped at the 1 twice. Were nicely balanced before that game, & bit of return to form. Call the upset.
MICHIGAN 27 - Wisconsin 22 - (3:30) -- That Badger overland game opened at 404 yds, but has managed just 158 & 154 since. But still perfect. Not that theWolverines are anything to write home about, with their 18.7 ppg "O". Six Tos in loss to Irish. But Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, & 34 pts last 4 Big10 RGs.
CLEMSON 26 - Maryland 20 - (12:00) -- Well, Tiger RB Davis finally got going in rout of SoCaroSt (3 TDs), but Harper managed 2 INTs in that 54-0 romp. Fact is CU is 0-5 ATS lately, by 46 pts. The dog is 49½ pts ahead of the line in MD games, with Terps nicely balanced all year (1 punt LW). They're worth a shot.
Fresno State 30 - UCLA 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Bruins at rock bottom now, with no TDs the past 2 wks, along with a 90-10 pt deficit. Only 11 FDs vs 'Zona, with just 81 PYs from Craft, & injuries taking their toll. FSt "D": from 10 ppg to 54 in LW's win at Toledo, stopping 2-pt OT try. But allowed only 304 yds vs Wisc.
Bowling Green 27 - WYOMING 17 - (4:00) -- A couple of teams plagued by the TO. Eight in last 2 games for BG, which outplayed Boise 2 wks ago,& six by the Cowboys in LW's 44-0 wipeout loss to BYU. WY ranks 115th in total "O", & 113th in total "D", & is on unheard of 0-11-1 ATS run. Not about to buck it.
OKLAHOMA 34 - Tcu 17 - (7:00) -- In '05, Frogs pulled off upset (Wise Points), & are loaded again. Check a 96-39 FD edge TY, allowing only 30.5 RYpg. Are 79½ pt ahead of the spot in their last 8 games, with QB Dalton leading a finely balanced "D". But Okies are another matter, altogether. Bradford: 47-of-59 for 699 yds & 10 TDs in their 2 lined games to date. But can't jump in either way.
SOUTH CAROLINA 33 - Uab 14 - (7:00) -- Gamecocks very unimpressive in the early going, despite a solid "D". Can't run, & another 2 INTs by Smelley LW, leading Wofford by just 16-13 until the final 1:58. Blazers snapped 9-game slide (AlabamaSt), with 223 PYs & 121 RYs from Webb. But 41 ppg "D" last 9.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Army 10 - (7:00) -- Ags in Miami/OklaSt sandwich, & hardly a safe play here, as they've lost their first 2 HGs by 22 & 15 pts ATS, & can't run, altho Johnson (for McGee: shoulder) has 6 TD passes last 2 games. First RG for the Cadets, which have 85-20 pt deficit thus far, & 12 TOs in their 3 games.
South Florida 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (7:30) -- No Grothe TDs, either running or passing, in narrow win over FlaInt (just 2nd time in 30 games), the Bull "D" is smothering: 6, 12, 9 FDs in 3-of-4 games. 'Pack rode 3 Wilson TD passes to upset of ECaro, so note 30 pts vs 29th rated Pirate "D". Pass.
UTEP 24 - Central Florida 21 - (8:00) -- Miners have unveiled a decent run "D" (122 yds vs Texas; 37 yds LW), but are hurting at RB, & now QB Vittatoe is out (ankle). Allowing 39.3 ppg, but the Knights have less than 200 RYs combined in their past 2 games, & have been a conference road flop. Mildest of plays hr.
New Mexico 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 37 - (8:00) -- Lobos shellshocked off 56 pt, 606 yd defensive effort vs Tulsa, & now QB Porterie is hurting. Shootout LY, with Holbrook's 437 PYs & 4 TDs, similar to his 329 PYs & 5 TDs in snapping 6-game losing skein LW. Lobos lost last 2 RGs by 37-0, 28-10, & 56-14 counts.
SAN DIEGO STATE 31 - Idaho 21 - (8:00) -- Worst of the worst here. SdiegoSt stands at 0-3, with a 293-6 RY deficit in its last game, while managing only 104 RYs for the year. Allowing 41 ppg in last 5 lined games. Vandals 1-11 ATS, & in off 356-84 RY deficit vs previously 0-3 UtahSt. Anyone remotely interested?
UNLV 33 - Nevada 27 - (10:00) -- Rebels in off a pair of 3-pt OT wins. Still no "D" (32.6 ppg last 25 contests), but showing decent balance, behind RB Summers & QB Clayton. Reno also defensive midgets, allowing 41.6 ppg in its last 10 outings, but note amassing 488 yds vs TexTech 2 wks back. Revenge takes it.
San Jose State 30 - HAWAII 20 - (12:05) -- Hate going against home team in SJSt contests (a 293-92 pt deficit away since last yr). Held to minus 24 yds in4th quarter at Stanford, but note QB Reed hitting his first 12 & first 16 passes last 2 wks. 'Bows have 142-27 pt deficit in their last 3 lined games. Spartans.
TEXAS 49 - Arkansas 14 - (2:00) -- This one was moved back a couple of wks, due to Hurricane Ike, but it makes little difference. Another 4 TDs for McCoy in LW's drubbing of Rice, so he has set a school-record with 62, & is 63-of-81 for the season. 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52, 42, & 52 pts in their last 5 wins, & that Arky "D" is ripe for the picking (39 ppg last 9). QB Dick: 3 INTs LW. Rout!
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Only way to go, as the Broncos are a spectacular 19-3 ATS as conference HFs of <28 pts. Check QB Moore with 3 TDs & 386 yds in his first start (upset of powerful Oregon). That 227-38 RY deficit may be cause for concern, but Tech won't to much denting of the Boise "D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY 31 - Western Kentucky 13
Arkansas State 23 - MEMPHIS 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 20
TOLEDO 37 - Fla International 24
KANSAS STATE 28 - La-Lafayette 17
RICE 28 - North Texas 27
Florida Atlanta 21 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20
Pointwise NFL Key Releases
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- It continues. Thus far, the visitor in games involving the Raiders is a perfect 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by a combined total of 51 pts. Oakland actually led the Bills, 23-14, with 4 minutes remaining, before that collapse. We say "actually", because the Raiders had a 25-10 FD deficit, while coming from 300 RYs at KC to just 98 at Buffalo. The Raiders catch the Chargers off their Monday Nighter with the Jets, but that should matter little, a Oakland is 6-15 ATS off a loss of <3 pts, is 2-15 ATS as a division host, is 1-9 ATS vs the Chargers, & a perfect 0-6 ATS as series host.
Cleveland 17 - CINCINNATI 16 - (1:00) -- A couple of very disappointing teams meet here. The Browns have said good-bye to LY's super "O", scoring just 8, 14, 20, 10, 6, & 10 pts in their last 6 outings (11.3 ppg). No rushing "O", & in off just 11 FDs in loss to the Ravens. Cincy took the Giants into OT, but have a 523-255 RY deficit for the season, altho Palmer was back in form a bit, with 286 PYs, after a combined 223 in his first 2 starts. The Bengals have reached 20 pts in just 2 of their last 8 games, with the dog covering 10-2 in their last dozen outings. Meshes nicely with Browns' spectacular 16-2 ATS log after allowing 27+ pts. And Cincy is 1-10 ATS at home vs a foe off a DD SU loss.
Buffalo 34 - ST LOUIS 13 - (4:05) -- Until things change, there is only one way to go when the Rams take the field. They are now not only on a 3-16 SU slide, but are 3-15-1 ATS since last year, accumulating a 116-29 pt deficit just this year, as well as allowing 39.3 ppg in their last 6 outings. They have yet to reach 200 PYs, have a 77-35 FD deficit, as well as a total yard 1,374-607 short end. The Bills are 3-0 for the first time since '92, & enter off 25-10 FD & 34:27-25:33 time edges, but a narrow 24-23 win. Lynch & Edwards have this "O" purring.Buff 17-9 ATS lately, & 26-8 ATS off a win of <3 pts. Extension of Ram futility.
CHICAGO 20 - Philadelphia 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Check it out. Nine sacks for the Eagles in their win over the Steelers. Philly had been held below 18 pts on 10 occasions LY, but opened with 38 & 37 pt outbursts. However, Westbrook is hurting (ankle: just 5 carries vs the Packers), & McNabb was shaken up as well. The Bears must regroup off blowing a 10-pt lead in the final 3:15 to the Bucs, losing despite a 158-47 RY edge. Forte is now at 304 RYs. The Bears are +68½ pts ATS in their last 6 games, & the dog is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in Chicago tilts. And the Bears are 13-0 ATS HDs off 2 losses vs a foe off a win.
CAROLINA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- We know that this one bucks prevailing wisdom whenever the Panthers take the field, namely sticking with the dog, as the pup is now 54-29 ATS in Carolina games lately. As if that weren't enough, the visitor is on an 8-0 spread run in Panther division games. But the time is now for Carolina to come storming back, following their dismal play at Minny, in which Delhomme was sacked 5 times, with key fumbles & 12 penalties putting the nails in that particular coffin. The Falcs have been splendid at home with Ryan 21-of-31, but he was just 13-of-31 with 2 picks in his lone RG. Ditto RB Turner: 324 RYs at home, but just 42 away. Falcons are 4-11 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 1-7 ATS Sept dogs off a win of more than 7 pts. Carolina the play.
Denver 30 - KANSAS CITY 27 - (1:00) -- Broncos 3-0 for first time since '03, but that "D" sure is vulnerable, a they've allowed 28 ppg, the most for any AFC team, & stingier than only the hapless Lions & Rams. Cutler a splendid 8/2 for the year, with Marshall snagging 24 passes the past 2 weeks. Note that this is Denver's 2nd division RG, & that they won their first such setup, 41-14. The Chiefs have dropped 12 straight on the field, with Thigpen an anemic 27-of-73 thus far, so hardly the answer. KC: just 12.2 ppg in its last 11 games. Sure, Johnson motored for 121 yds last week, but still a 38-14 loss. The host is 8-2 ATS in Bronco games, but the visitor is 10-3 ATS in Chief contests. Denver is 17-9 off allowing 30+ pts. Chiefs are 11-0 ATS in division play, off allowing 34+ pts, & 36-13 ATS as HDs. And backing Denver as chalk not profitable of late.
JACKSONVILLE 22 - Houston 19 - (1:00) -- Jags avoided 0-3 start on 51-yd Scobee FG in final 0:04 vs the Colts. Not only that, but their overland game came to life with Jones-Drew & Taylor both over 100 RYs. Throw in a 16-of-22 showing for Garrard, along with a 41:35-18:25 time edge, & shades of '07 beckon. Texans still searching for missing ingredient, after managing only 12 pts after getting inside the Titan 14 six times. Schaub: just 1 TD pass, with 5 INTs so far, & check a 69-29 scoring deficit. But also check Slaton with 116 RYs (6.4 ypr) vs Tennessee. Houston has a 277-148 pt deficit in its last 8 RGs, but is 10-2 ATS in division play off a pair of losses. We'll take the points.
Arizona 20 - NEW YORK JETS 16 - (1:00) -- Well it had to happen. No TOs for the Cards in their first 2 games of the season: 2 wins & covers. But 2 miscues at Washington, as they tried to go 3-0 for the 1st time since '74, with a 24-17 loss the result. And that one also snapped their 10-game streak of scoring at least 20 pts, but 'Zona is still scoring at a 30.7 ppg clip over its last 11 contests. And Warner is going along decently, with 6 TDs & only 1 pick for the season. The Jets are in off their Monday Nighter with the Chargers, & are just 8-23 ATS as Sept HFs. The Cardinals, meanwhile are 16-6 ATS off a SU loss of <8 pts.
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 13 - (1:00) -- Wow! After failing to reach 18 pts on 13 occasions since LY, the Niners explode for 33 & 31 pts in back-toback weeks. Check their 35:54-24:06 time edge in their win over the Lions, with Gore cranking out 130 RYs, & O'Sullivan tossing a pair of TDs (no INTs). First of 3 HGs for the Saints, who haven't normally done all that well as hosts (12-24 ATS run, & 6-15 ATS as a HF off a SU loss), but who've succeeded nicely vs the Niners: 9-2 ATS of late, including LY's 31-10 win in 'Frisco. The Saints nearly came all the way back from an 18-pt deficit at Denver, with Brees & Bush leading the way to 27 FDs & >500 yds. We'll call for it to continue here.
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16 - (1:00) -- No questioning the fine play of the Titans, as they stand at 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by 10, 18, & 14½ pts. Are 3-0 for just the 3rd time, & have held their last 7 opponents under 18 pts. And check Collins' 28-of-47 the past couple of weeks. But the Vikes are rarely out of a game, with their 2 losses this year coming by just 3 &1½ pts. Not only that, but Frerotte (for Jackson) has breathed new life into this team, with RB Peterson now at 340 yds. And check allowing only 25 & 47 RYs past 2 wks. This could easily go down to the final gun, with pts at a premium. Mild dog call.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Green Bay 17 - (1:00) -- Battle of old NFC Central powers meeting here. Buccaneer QB Griese set a franchise record by throwing no less than 67 passes, in Tampa's OT upset of the Bears, connecting on 38 of them for 407 yds, altho 3 wound up in Chicago hands. Tampa trailed 24-14 with just 3:15 remaining in that one, by the way. The Pack couldn't get it done at home vs the Cowboys, but are still a formidable play, covering 16-6-1 lately, & 20-5 SU since the windup of the '06 campaign. Bucs are 32-17 ATS as non division hosts, while the Pack is 0-8 ATS as a RD off a SU loss to NFL East foe.
DALLAS 30 - Washington 17 - (4:15) -- Home team is the way to go in 'Skin games thus far, as Washington has compiled 53 pts, 46 FDs, & 778 yds the past 2 weeks (both played at Fedex). But in their only RG, they were held to just 11 FDs in that opening day loss to the Giants. Campbell is in the groove, with a nice 69.7% completion rate the past 2 wks (46-of-66), & has thrown for 4 TDs, without an INT. But taking to the road vs this dedicated Cowboy outfit is a bit too much. Check 488 & 453 yds in 2 of their 3 outings, with Romo at 5 TDs already. 'Boys are only 10-21 ATS as DD chalks lately, but mild chalk call.
MONDAY
PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - (8:35) -- First RG for the Ravens, who have opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs; 631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 Rys the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7 ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET --NCAA (8-6-1)
9/26/2008 (105) CONNECTICUT at (106) LOUISVILLE Well, it seems that Louisville in as bad of shape as oddsmakers would have led you to believe prior to the Kansas State game. With QB Hunter Cantwell getting the passing game going in the last two outings, the Cardinals are now one of the more balanced teams in the Big East, both offensively and defensively. The same can’t be said for connecticut, who relies extensively on the running game. The Huskies’ inability to throw the ball on Baylor last Friday night was eye opening. Though they still won that game, the problem for them in this Friday night clash is that they’re going to have problems
running the ball on Louisville. HC Steve Kragthorpe’s team has shut down each of their first three opponents’ ground attacks. With the
running game, UConn will have trouble staying in this one. They are 4-0 having played NOBODY. This game will be a wake up call. Take the hosts. Play: Louisville -3
9/27/2008 (125) MISSISSIPPI ST at(126) LSU Conference games with lines in the 20’s should catch your eye, especially if both teams are returning bowl teams. LSU comes off its huge win at Auburn last weekend and has this game to get ready for the real showdown of 2008, at Florida on October 11th. That alone makes this a tough spot for the Tigers, not necessarily dangerous in terms of winning the game, but a difficult game in which to beat a large pointspread. Mississippi State, of course, relies on its defense, as the offense is probably the worst in the SEC. However, this is the same team that held Auburn to 3-points two weeks ago. In fact, had this game been played last weekend, before the Bulldogs’ blowout loss at Georgia Tech, the line would have been at least 3-4 points more favorable. As it is, it’s in overreaction. LSU has struggled at home vs. SEC foes, going 22-41 ATS. MSU is 6-0 ATS on the road off of a spread loss. Look for a 30-13 type of game here with the dogs getting done on the number. Play: Mississippi St +24.5
9/27/2008 (135) PURDUE at (136) NOTRE DAME Saturday’s game at Michigan State was proof enough for me that this Notre Dame team is not ready to turn the corner just yet. The Irish are lacking offensively, producing just 287 YPG in their first three outings. They are also struggling with turnovers week-in and week-out, having given up the ball nine times thus far. Purdue meanwhile, is all about offense, and road underdogs with prolific offenses make for good plays typically. The Boilermakers’ defensive numbers are also negatively influenced by the fact that they’ve played Oregon and Central Michigan, a pair of clubs that put up big numbers. Saturday’s game figures to improve Purdue’s defensive outlook. In terms of trends: NOTRE DAME is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. The average score was NOTRE DAME 25.7, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 1*). This is a case where the wrong team is favored. Take advantage. Play: Purdue +2.5
9/27/2008 (145) ALABAMA at (146) GEORGIA Alabama has put up some heady numbers in the early going as part of their 4-0 start. In not-so-typical Tide-fashion, they are averaging a healthy 5.9 yards per play. However, something about that performance at Tulane has me believing this is the same inconsistent ‘Bama offense. In that game, they put up just 172 yards in all. Against Georgia, it certainly won’t be easy to move the ball: GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GEORGIA 34.2, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 1*). Additionally, the Bulldogs have typically brought their best game for the biggest games: Richt is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good teams – outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of GEORGIA. The average score was GEORGIA 28.1, OPPONENT 21.0 - (Rating = 1*). In this contest, you have one of the elite teams in the country taking on one that is still coming into its own. The best part is that the elite team is laying less than a TD at home.Play: Georgia –6
9/27/2008 (153) FRESNO ST at (154)UCLA UCLA and Fresno State have a naturally developed regional rivalry and have met four times in the last 15 seasons. In those four contests, UCLA was the favorite each time, by an average of 12.5 PPG. Fresno State won outright in one of the games, a bowl game following the 2003 season. This time around, a Bulldogs’ team that is 2-1 with wins over a suspect Rutgers club and Toledo is the somewhat heavy road favorite. In the game against the Rockets, Fresno couldn’t get a stop, winning 55-54 in overtime. Let me ask you this: Is this the type of team you want to again lay 6-1/2 points with on the road playing “up” in conference stature? This is still WAC vs. Pac 10, and the WAC is rarely favored in such matchups. UCLA is still one of the better home underdogs in college football, going 18-5 ATS in their L23 opportunities. Having beaten Tennessee outright in the season opener, I imagine the Bruins will be extra motivated by being an underdog here. This game means a lot on the West Coast, don’t expect the Bruins to roll over. Play: UCLA +6.5
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. WAKE FOREST (-15.5) over NAVY 20
2. WISCONSIN (-4) over MICHIGAN 16
3. ALABAMA (+7) over GEORGIA 16
4. MARSHALL (+17) over W VIRGINIA 14
5. BALL ST (-18) over KENT ST 14
6. SAN JOSE ST (+3) over HAWAII 13
Top College Football Systems, Trends and Head-to-Head Data
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (161) UAB vs. (162) S CAROLINA Play On - A home team (S CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. (38-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +28.1 units. Rating=4*). The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (16-2). L10 Seasons: (62-59). Since 1992: (94-84).
Friday, 09/26/2008 (105) CONNECTICUT vs. (106) LOUISVILLE Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - off an upset win as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9. (25-4 since 1992.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating=3*). The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-1). L5 Seasons: (8-1). Since 1992: (18-3).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA, IDAHO) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a
winning record on the season playing another winning team. (29-7 since 1992.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (9-4). L5 Seasons: (14-4). L10 Seasons: (19-6).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (125) MISSISSIPPI ST. vs. (126) LSU LSU is 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS vs. MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (127) N ILLINOIS vs. (128) E MICHIGAN The ROAD TEAM is 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in N ILLINOIS-E MICHIGAN series since ‘00.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (117) NORTHWESTERN vs. (118) IOWA The UNDERDOG is 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in NORTHWESTERN-IOWA series since ‘95.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (135) PURDUE vs. (136) NOTRE DAME The UNDERDOG is 4-12 SU but 11-4 ATS in PURDUE-NOTRE DAME series since ‘92.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (179) NEVADA vs. (180) UNLV The FAVORITE is 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in NEVADA-UNLV series since ‘94.
Statfox Platinum Sheet NFL Games September 28-29
9/28/2008 (199) HOUSTON at (200) JACKSONVILLE Hold your applause for Jacksonville everyone, the Jaguars are not “back” as most experts are now claiming. They simply beat a struggling Colts team last weekend, a team that HC Jack Del Rio’s team has always gotten up for and played competitively against. The Jags struggle against the Texans, having gone just 3-9 ATS in the L12 games of this head-to-head series. Meanwhile, Houston certainly can’t be happy about its season thus far, but let’s not forget, they’ve played two of the toughest defenses in the NFL in the first two games and they’ve faced an unusual scheduling situation. This will be their third straight road game and with things finally getting back to some semblance of normalcy on the home front, I expect the same on the football field. This game price is an overreaction to Jacksonville’s win. The last time the Texans faced a similar overpricing in Jacksonville, they won outright 13-10 in 2006. Play: Houston +7.5
9/28/2008 (203) SAN FRANCISCO at (204) NEW ORLEANS Far for me to be talking about which teams are good or not after my personal Week 3 performance, but I just don’t get all the buzz about the Saints. This team is 1-2 and giving up over 27 PPG and nearly 400 YPG. This week they’ll be hosting a San Francisco team that has proven itself very offensively worthy in the early going, averaging a lofty 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Anyone who reads the StatFox site often knows how important this stat is to handicapping NFL games. When you can get a team with this much big play potential playing as a 6-point underdog, the numbers say you gotta play it. If that’s not enough, consider the tremendous defensive advantage that the 49ers will enjoy here. They are allowing 4.6 yards per play, the Saints give up 6.3. In actuality, San Francisco’s YPP numbers (6.5 offense, 4.6 defense) are characteristic of an elite team. This pointspread doesn’t reflect it. Play: San Francisco +6
9/28/2008 (207) MINNESOTA at (208) TENNESSEE There aren’t too many occasions where a 3-0 team with the best point differential is playing at home against a 1-2 team and only laying 3-1/2 points. What gives? Why is Tennessee not getting the respect that the Giants, Dallas, and Denver are getting? Perhaps because they are winning with dominant defense and not big play offense. Still, the Titans are outscoring opponents by 14.3 PPG thus far and holding opponents to just 240.3 YPG and 4.2 YPP. Here they’ll be hosting an unfamiliar foe that has endured offensive struggles to date. This will be a very tough spot for the Vikings, who’ve struggled on the road versus AFC
foes, losing seven straight games while going 1-5-1 ATS. The Titans meanwhile, have thrived versus the NFC, covering 66.7% of the time under Jeff Fisher. Tennessee is a solid team, it just isn’t being treated as such. Play: Tennessee -3.5
9/28/2008(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND If San Diego is truly an elite team, this is a game where it should easily take care of business. The Raiders have little to no home field advantage to speak of and are the NFL’s most discombobulated team. They are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games. If Lane Kiffin were to survive this week’s rumors, this is still a franchise with a cloud hanging over it. Meanwhile, San Diego’s Super Bowl aspirations may have taken a hit in the early going but the Chargers are still breathing and ready to make a run. They have dominated Oakland as well, going 21-11 ATS overall since ’92, and 13-3 ATS on the road. Norv Turner’s team has also thrived in divisional play, recognizing its importance. San Diego could and should be in a much better spot than it is now. They’ll eventually get back to that spot, and in the meantime, there will be some nice lines to take advantage of. Play: San Diego -7
9/28/2008 (217) PHILADELPHIA at (218) CHICAGO The NFC East Division is loaded with playoff caliber clubs and only a painstaking 41-37 loss at Dallas in Week 2 has Philadelphia looking up in the standings. Right now, the Eagles have to be considered one of the top teams in the NFL. The numbers back it up. Even with that 41-point effort by the Cowboys, HC Andy Reid’s team is allowing just 242 YPG, holding its two other opponents to 6 & 3 points respectively. On offense, led by the resurgent Donovan McNabb, the Eagles are averaging 289 YPG thru the air and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Chicao, while better than expected offensively in the early going, has still lost a pair of heartbreakers that have demoralizing potential. The Bears’ offensive balance has been the key to their early season offensive success. However, with Philly stopping the run at a 46 YPG and 2.4 YPR pace, this game figures to fall on Kyle Orton for the first time this season. Like you are probably think, I don’t like those chances either. Look for Philly to win a 5th straight game in Chicago.Play: Philadelphia -3
9/26/2008 (105) CONNECTICUT at (106) LOUISVILLE Well, it seems that Louisville in as bad of shape as oddsmakers would have led you to believe prior to the Kansas State game. With QB Hunter Cantwell getting the passing game going in the last two outings, the Cardinals are now one of the more balanced teams in the Big East, both offensively and defensively. The same can’t be said for connecticut, who relies extensively on the running game. The Huskies’ inability to throw the ball on Baylor last Friday night was eye opening. Though they still won that game, the problem for them in this Friday night clash is that they’re going to have problems
running the ball on Louisville. HC Steve Kragthorpe’s team has shut down each of their first three opponents’ ground attacks. With the
running game, UConn will have trouble staying in this one. They are 4-0 having played NOBODY. This game will be a wake up call. Take the hosts. Play: Louisville -3
9/27/2008 (125) MISSISSIPPI ST at(126) LSU Conference games with lines in the 20’s should catch your eye, especially if both teams are returning bowl teams. LSU comes off its huge win at Auburn last weekend and has this game to get ready for the real showdown of 2008, at Florida on October 11th. That alone makes this a tough spot for the Tigers, not necessarily dangerous in terms of winning the game, but a difficult game in which to beat a large pointspread. Mississippi State, of course, relies on its defense, as the offense is probably the worst in the SEC. However, this is the same team that held Auburn to 3-points two weeks ago. In fact, had this game been played last weekend, before the Bulldogs’ blowout loss at Georgia Tech, the line would have been at least 3-4 points more favorable. As it is, it’s in overreaction. LSU has struggled at home vs. SEC foes, going 22-41 ATS. MSU is 6-0 ATS on the road off of a spread loss. Look for a 30-13 type of game here with the dogs getting done on the number. Play: Mississippi St +24.5
9/27/2008 (135) PURDUE at (136) NOTRE DAME Saturday’s game at Michigan State was proof enough for me that this Notre Dame team is not ready to turn the corner just yet. The Irish are lacking offensively, producing just 287 YPG in their first three outings. They are also struggling with turnovers week-in and week-out, having given up the ball nine times thus far. Purdue meanwhile, is all about offense, and road underdogs with prolific offenses make for good plays typically. The Boilermakers’ defensive numbers are also negatively influenced by the fact that they’ve played Oregon and Central Michigan, a pair of clubs that put up big numbers. Saturday’s game figures to improve Purdue’s defensive outlook. In terms of trends: NOTRE DAME is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. The average score was NOTRE DAME 25.7, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 1*). This is a case where the wrong team is favored. Take advantage. Play: Purdue +2.5
9/27/2008 (145) ALABAMA at (146) GEORGIA Alabama has put up some heady numbers in the early going as part of their 4-0 start. In not-so-typical Tide-fashion, they are averaging a healthy 5.9 yards per play. However, something about that performance at Tulane has me believing this is the same inconsistent ‘Bama offense. In that game, they put up just 172 yards in all. Against Georgia, it certainly won’t be easy to move the ball: GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GEORGIA 34.2, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 1*). Additionally, the Bulldogs have typically brought their best game for the biggest games: Richt is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good teams – outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of GEORGIA. The average score was GEORGIA 28.1, OPPONENT 21.0 - (Rating = 1*). In this contest, you have one of the elite teams in the country taking on one that is still coming into its own. The best part is that the elite team is laying less than a TD at home.Play: Georgia –6
9/27/2008 (153) FRESNO ST at (154)UCLA UCLA and Fresno State have a naturally developed regional rivalry and have met four times in the last 15 seasons. In those four contests, UCLA was the favorite each time, by an average of 12.5 PPG. Fresno State won outright in one of the games, a bowl game following the 2003 season. This time around, a Bulldogs’ team that is 2-1 with wins over a suspect Rutgers club and Toledo is the somewhat heavy road favorite. In the game against the Rockets, Fresno couldn’t get a stop, winning 55-54 in overtime. Let me ask you this: Is this the type of team you want to again lay 6-1/2 points with on the road playing “up” in conference stature? This is still WAC vs. Pac 10, and the WAC is rarely favored in such matchups. UCLA is still one of the better home underdogs in college football, going 18-5 ATS in their L23 opportunities. Having beaten Tennessee outright in the season opener, I imagine the Bruins will be extra motivated by being an underdog here. This game means a lot on the West Coast, don’t expect the Bruins to roll over. Play: UCLA +6.5
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. WAKE FOREST (-15.5) over NAVY 20
2. WISCONSIN (-4) over MICHIGAN 16
3. ALABAMA (+7) over GEORGIA 16
4. MARSHALL (+17) over W VIRGINIA 14
5. BALL ST (-18) over KENT ST 14
6. SAN JOSE ST (+3) over HAWAII 13
Top College Football Systems, Trends and Head-to-Head Data
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (161) UAB vs. (162) S CAROLINA Play On - A home team (S CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. (38-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +28.1 units. Rating=4*). The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (16-2). L10 Seasons: (62-59). Since 1992: (94-84).
Friday, 09/26/2008 (105) CONNECTICUT vs. (106) LOUISVILLE Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - off an upset win as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9. (25-4 since 1992.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating=3*). The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-1). L5 Seasons: (8-1). Since 1992: (18-3).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA, IDAHO) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a
winning record on the season playing another winning team. (29-7 since 1992.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (9-4). L5 Seasons: (14-4). L10 Seasons: (19-6).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (125) MISSISSIPPI ST. vs. (126) LSU LSU is 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS vs. MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (127) N ILLINOIS vs. (128) E MICHIGAN The ROAD TEAM is 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in N ILLINOIS-E MICHIGAN series since ‘00.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (117) NORTHWESTERN vs. (118) IOWA The UNDERDOG is 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in NORTHWESTERN-IOWA series since ‘95.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (135) PURDUE vs. (136) NOTRE DAME The UNDERDOG is 4-12 SU but 11-4 ATS in PURDUE-NOTRE DAME series since ‘92.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (179) NEVADA vs. (180) UNLV The FAVORITE is 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in NEVADA-UNLV series since ‘94.
Statfox Platinum Sheet NFL Games September 28-29
9/28/2008 (199) HOUSTON at (200) JACKSONVILLE Hold your applause for Jacksonville everyone, the Jaguars are not “back” as most experts are now claiming. They simply beat a struggling Colts team last weekend, a team that HC Jack Del Rio’s team has always gotten up for and played competitively against. The Jags struggle against the Texans, having gone just 3-9 ATS in the L12 games of this head-to-head series. Meanwhile, Houston certainly can’t be happy about its season thus far, but let’s not forget, they’ve played two of the toughest defenses in the NFL in the first two games and they’ve faced an unusual scheduling situation. This will be their third straight road game and with things finally getting back to some semblance of normalcy on the home front, I expect the same on the football field. This game price is an overreaction to Jacksonville’s win. The last time the Texans faced a similar overpricing in Jacksonville, they won outright 13-10 in 2006. Play: Houston +7.5
9/28/2008 (203) SAN FRANCISCO at (204) NEW ORLEANS Far for me to be talking about which teams are good or not after my personal Week 3 performance, but I just don’t get all the buzz about the Saints. This team is 1-2 and giving up over 27 PPG and nearly 400 YPG. This week they’ll be hosting a San Francisco team that has proven itself very offensively worthy in the early going, averaging a lofty 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Anyone who reads the StatFox site often knows how important this stat is to handicapping NFL games. When you can get a team with this much big play potential playing as a 6-point underdog, the numbers say you gotta play it. If that’s not enough, consider the tremendous defensive advantage that the 49ers will enjoy here. They are allowing 4.6 yards per play, the Saints give up 6.3. In actuality, San Francisco’s YPP numbers (6.5 offense, 4.6 defense) are characteristic of an elite team. This pointspread doesn’t reflect it. Play: San Francisco +6
9/28/2008 (207) MINNESOTA at (208) TENNESSEE There aren’t too many occasions where a 3-0 team with the best point differential is playing at home against a 1-2 team and only laying 3-1/2 points. What gives? Why is Tennessee not getting the respect that the Giants, Dallas, and Denver are getting? Perhaps because they are winning with dominant defense and not big play offense. Still, the Titans are outscoring opponents by 14.3 PPG thus far and holding opponents to just 240.3 YPG and 4.2 YPP. Here they’ll be hosting an unfamiliar foe that has endured offensive struggles to date. This will be a very tough spot for the Vikings, who’ve struggled on the road versus AFC
foes, losing seven straight games while going 1-5-1 ATS. The Titans meanwhile, have thrived versus the NFC, covering 66.7% of the time under Jeff Fisher. Tennessee is a solid team, it just isn’t being treated as such. Play: Tennessee -3.5
9/28/2008(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND If San Diego is truly an elite team, this is a game where it should easily take care of business. The Raiders have little to no home field advantage to speak of and are the NFL’s most discombobulated team. They are just 2-11 in their last 13 home games. If Lane Kiffin were to survive this week’s rumors, this is still a franchise with a cloud hanging over it. Meanwhile, San Diego’s Super Bowl aspirations may have taken a hit in the early going but the Chargers are still breathing and ready to make a run. They have dominated Oakland as well, going 21-11 ATS overall since ’92, and 13-3 ATS on the road. Norv Turner’s team has also thrived in divisional play, recognizing its importance. San Diego could and should be in a much better spot than it is now. They’ll eventually get back to that spot, and in the meantime, there will be some nice lines to take advantage of. Play: San Diego -7
9/28/2008 (217) PHILADELPHIA at (218) CHICAGO The NFC East Division is loaded with playoff caliber clubs and only a painstaking 41-37 loss at Dallas in Week 2 has Philadelphia looking up in the standings. Right now, the Eagles have to be considered one of the top teams in the NFL. The numbers back it up. Even with that 41-point effort by the Cowboys, HC Andy Reid’s team is allowing just 242 YPG, holding its two other opponents to 6 & 3 points respectively. On offense, led by the resurgent Donovan McNabb, the Eagles are averaging 289 YPG thru the air and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Chicao, while better than expected offensively in the early going, has still lost a pair of heartbreakers that have demoralizing potential. The Bears’ offensive balance has been the key to their early season offensive success. However, with Philly stopping the run at a 46 YPG and 2.4 YPR pace, this game figures to fall on Kyle Orton for the first time this season. Like you are probably think, I don’t like those chances either. Look for Philly to win a 5th straight game in Chicago.Play: Philadelphia -3
Red Sheet
Red Sheet for 9/25-9/29
ALABAMA 20 - Georgia 19 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 7½, and is now minus 6½. Admittedly, the 1-pt swing has moved the line from more to less than TD. Regardless, this one should be an all-out war. The Bulldogs rank #3 in the land, & deservedly so, with their defense holding SoCarolina & ArizonaSt to a combined 22 RYs the past 2 weeks. And the
Moreno/Stafford combo keeps all opposing defenses honest. But the Tide has also posted a perfect 4-0 record, with impressive showings in all but one outing. A year ago, this one went into OT, & 'Bama is much improved this time around. The Bulldogs are still fairly green across their offensive line, & the Tide's 13th ranked "D" will do its part.
RATING: ALABAMA 89
Western Michigan 34 - TEMPLE 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Western Michigan minus 3, and is now minus 3½. No questioning the improvement of the Owls, under Golden's tutelage. They've been a highly profitable play, covering 16 of their last 24, & had been 87½ pts ahead of the spread
in their 13 games, previous to their trip to PennSt last week, a game in which they were totally exposed, not only by the 45-3 final, but more importantly by a 546-138 yd deficit. Not only that, but may have lost the services of their most important player, QB DiMichele, who went down with a shoulder injury. The Bronco "D" is cause for concern, of course, but without DiMichele, the dynamic has changed, & WM "O" purring all year.
RATING: WESTERN MICHIGAN 89
TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 17, and is now minus 18½. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Panthers have covered 2 of their 3 games to date, against no less than #18 Kansas, & #13 SouthFlorida. But the former cover was by a mere
6 pts, as the Panthers' only TD came as the result of a punt return, with Kansas calling off the dogs over the final 20 minutes. And the latter took place just a week ago, when they caught the SoFlorida off a brutal 37-34 game. Thus the draining element is squarely on the other foot in this contest, as FlaInt must now travel to take on a suddenly potent Rocket
squad (95 pts last 2 wks). Panthers have an 82-10 pt deficit on the road.
RATING: TOLEDO 88
BALL STATE 51 - Kent State 20 - (12:00 Noon) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 18, and is now minus 17. They say that opposites attract, & this one certainly attracts us. Difficult to find 2 more different squads than these 2, with that Cardinal offense a thing of beauty, due to no less than 10 starters from last year's 30th ranked "O". The combo of QB Davis (10 TD passes so far), & RB Lewis (166 RYs in last week's 42-20 upset of Indiana) has them cooking. Check averaging 41.5 ppg thus far, with the Flashes allowing 48 & 44 pts in their 2 RGs to date, & in off being battered for 667 yds by Lafayette. Spread more than reasonable.
RATING: BALL STATE 88
OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Troy 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at OkahomaSt minus 17, and is still minus 17. The Trojans of Troy continue to impress. They've made it to a couple of bowls over the past 4 seasons, with a 29-pt cover over Rice in the '06 New Orleans Bowl. So their credentials
have been well established, with no greater proof than their brutal battle with OhioSt just last week, when they trailed the Buckeyes by just 14-10 in the 4th. But that game had to takes its toll, & now they run smack into one of the more unappreciated teams around. Cowboys have topped 40 pts 13 times since '06, & continue production.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 88
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.
The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.
RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): CentMich, Cincinnati, Michigan, Maryland -- NFL: Chargers, Bills, Steelers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Wisconsin (-3 to -6½); FresnoSt (-3½ to -7); Illinois (+16½ to +13½); SouthernCal (-21½ to -24); Louisville (-1½ to -3½); SanDiegoSt (-9 to -11); UAB (+26½ to +24½); Marshall (+17 to +15½); Duke (-5½ to -7); Stanford (+5 to +3½); Toledo
(-17 to -18½) - NFL: StLouis (+9½ to +8).
-
TIME CHANGES: NoIllinois/EastMich: now Noon; TexasA&M/Army: now 12:30; PennSt/ Illinois: now 8:10; Texas/Arkansas: now 3:30 -
KEY INJURIES: BallSt WR Love (Head) out; Cincy QB Grutza (neck) out; EastMich QB Schmitt (shoulder) questionable; MichiganSt RB Ringer (ankle) probable; NewMexico QB Porterie (ACL) out; NorthCarolina QB Yates (ankle) out; Northwestern RB Sutton (leg) probable; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Costa (ACL) out; Oregon QB Masoli (head) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder) doubtful; TexasA&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; UTEP QBVittatoe (ankle) doubtful; WashingtonSt QB Lopina (shoulder) questionable.....
Red Sheet for 9/25-9/29
ALABAMA 20 - Georgia 19 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 7½, and is now minus 6½. Admittedly, the 1-pt swing has moved the line from more to less than TD. Regardless, this one should be an all-out war. The Bulldogs rank #3 in the land, & deservedly so, with their defense holding SoCarolina & ArizonaSt to a combined 22 RYs the past 2 weeks. And the
Moreno/Stafford combo keeps all opposing defenses honest. But the Tide has also posted a perfect 4-0 record, with impressive showings in all but one outing. A year ago, this one went into OT, & 'Bama is much improved this time around. The Bulldogs are still fairly green across their offensive line, & the Tide's 13th ranked "D" will do its part.
RATING: ALABAMA 89
Western Michigan 34 - TEMPLE 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Western Michigan minus 3, and is now minus 3½. No questioning the improvement of the Owls, under Golden's tutelage. They've been a highly profitable play, covering 16 of their last 24, & had been 87½ pts ahead of the spread
in their 13 games, previous to their trip to PennSt last week, a game in which they were totally exposed, not only by the 45-3 final, but more importantly by a 546-138 yd deficit. Not only that, but may have lost the services of their most important player, QB DiMichele, who went down with a shoulder injury. The Bronco "D" is cause for concern, of course, but without DiMichele, the dynamic has changed, & WM "O" purring all year.
RATING: WESTERN MICHIGAN 89
TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 17, and is now minus 18½. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Panthers have covered 2 of their 3 games to date, against no less than #18 Kansas, & #13 SouthFlorida. But the former cover was by a mere
6 pts, as the Panthers' only TD came as the result of a punt return, with Kansas calling off the dogs over the final 20 minutes. And the latter took place just a week ago, when they caught the SoFlorida off a brutal 37-34 game. Thus the draining element is squarely on the other foot in this contest, as FlaInt must now travel to take on a suddenly potent Rocket
squad (95 pts last 2 wks). Panthers have an 82-10 pt deficit on the road.
RATING: TOLEDO 88
BALL STATE 51 - Kent State 20 - (12:00 Noon) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 18, and is now minus 17. They say that opposites attract, & this one certainly attracts us. Difficult to find 2 more different squads than these 2, with that Cardinal offense a thing of beauty, due to no less than 10 starters from last year's 30th ranked "O". The combo of QB Davis (10 TD passes so far), & RB Lewis (166 RYs in last week's 42-20 upset of Indiana) has them cooking. Check averaging 41.5 ppg thus far, with the Flashes allowing 48 & 44 pts in their 2 RGs to date, & in off being battered for 667 yds by Lafayette. Spread more than reasonable.
RATING: BALL STATE 88
OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Troy 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at OkahomaSt minus 17, and is still minus 17. The Trojans of Troy continue to impress. They've made it to a couple of bowls over the past 4 seasons, with a 29-pt cover over Rice in the '06 New Orleans Bowl. So their credentials
have been well established, with no greater proof than their brutal battle with OhioSt just last week, when they trailed the Buckeyes by just 14-10 in the 4th. But that game had to takes its toll, & now they run smack into one of the more unappreciated teams around. Cowboys have topped 40 pts 13 times since '06, & continue production.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 88
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.
The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.
RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): CentMich, Cincinnati, Michigan, Maryland -- NFL: Chargers, Bills, Steelers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Wisconsin (-3 to -6½); FresnoSt (-3½ to -7); Illinois (+16½ to +13½); SouthernCal (-21½ to -24); Louisville (-1½ to -3½); SanDiegoSt (-9 to -11); UAB (+26½ to +24½); Marshall (+17 to +15½); Duke (-5½ to -7); Stanford (+5 to +3½); Toledo
(-17 to -18½) - NFL: StLouis (+9½ to +8).
-
TIME CHANGES: NoIllinois/EastMich: now Noon; TexasA&M/Army: now 12:30; PennSt/ Illinois: now 8:10; Texas/Arkansas: now 3:30 -
KEY INJURIES: BallSt WR Love (Head) out; Cincy QB Grutza (neck) out; EastMich QB Schmitt (shoulder) questionable; MichiganSt RB Ringer (ankle) probable; NewMexico QB Porterie (ACL) out; NorthCarolina QB Yates (ankle) out; Northwestern RB Sutton (leg) probable; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Costa (ACL) out; Oregon QB Masoli (head) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder) doubtful; TexasA&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; UTEP QBVittatoe (ankle) doubtful; WashingtonSt QB Lopina (shoulder) questionable.....
Statfox Platinum Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Games September 28-29
9/28/2008 (199) HOUSTON at (200) JACKSONVILLE
Hold your applause for Jacksonville everyone, the Jaguars are
not ?back? as most experts are now claiming. They simply beat
a struggling Colts team last weekend, a team that HC Jack Del
Rio?s team has always gotten up for and played competitively
against. The Jags struggle against the Texans, having gone
just 3-9 ATS in the L12 games of this head-to-head series.
Meanwhile, Houston certainly can?t be happy about its season
thus far, but let?s not forget, they?ve played two of the toughest
defenses in the NFL in the first two games and they?ve faced an
unusual scheduling situation. This will be their third straight road
game and with things finally getting back to some semblance of
normalcy on the home front, I expect the same on the football
field. This game price is an overreaction to Jacksonville?s win. The
last time the Texans faced a similar overpricing in Jacksonville,
they won outright 13-10 in 2006.
Play: Houston +7.5
9/28/2008 (203) SAN FRANCISCO at
(204) NEW ORLEANS
Far for me to be talking about which
teams are good or not after my personal
Week 3 performance, but I just don?t
get all the buzz about the Saints. This
team is 1-2 and giving up over 27 PPG
and nearly 400 YPG. This week they?ll
be hosting a San Francisco team that
has proven itself very offensively worthy
in the early going, averaging a lofty 8.6
yards per pass attempt. Anyone who
reads the StatFox site often knows how
important this stat is to handicapping
NFL games. When you can get a team
with this much big play potential playing
as a 6-point underdog, the numbers say
you gotta play it. If that?s not enough,
consider the tremendous defensive
advantage that the 49ers will enjoy here.
They are allowing 4.6 yards per play, the
Saints give up 6.3. In actuality, San Francisco?s YPP numbers
(6.5 offense, 4.6 defense) are characteristic of an elite team. This
pointspread doesn?t reflect it.
Play: San Francisco +6
9/28/2008 (207) MINNESOTA at (208) TENNESSEE
There aren?t too many occasions where a 3-0 team with the best
point differential is playing at home against a 1-2 team and only
laying 3-1/2 points. What gives? Why is Tennessee not getting
the respect that the Giants, Dallas, and Denver are getting?
Perhaps because they are winning with dominant defense and
not big play offense. Still, the Titans are outscoring opponents
by 14.3 PPG thus far and holding opponents to just 240.3 YPG
and 4.2 YPP. Here they?ll be hosting an unfamiliar foe that has
endured offensive struggles to date. This will be a very tough
spot for the Vikings, who?ve struggled on the road versus AFC
foes, losing seven straight games while going 1-5-1 ATS. The
Titans meanwhile, have thrived versus the NFC, covering 66.7%
of the time under Jeff Fisher. Tennessee is a solid team, it just
isn?t being treated as such.
Play: Tennessee -3.5
9/28/2008(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND
If San Diego is truly an elite team, this is a game where it
should easily take care of business. The Raiders have little to
no home field advantage to speak of and are the NFL?s most
discombobulated team. They are just 2-11 in their last 13 home
games. If Lane Kiffin were to survive this week?s rumors, this is still
a franchise with a cloud hanging over it. Meanwhile, San Diego?s
Super Bowl aspirations may have taken
a hit in the early going but the Chargers
are still breathing and ready to make a
run. They have dominated Oakland as
well, going 21-11 ATS overall since ?92,
and 13-3 ATS on the road. Norv Turner?s
team has also thrived in divisional play,
recognizing its importance. San Diego
could and should be in a much better
spot than it is now. They?ll eventually get
back to that spot, and in the meantime,
there will be some nice lines to take
advantage of.
Play: San Diego -7
9/28/2008 (217) PHILADELPHIA
at (218) CHICAGO
The NFC East Division is loaded
with playoff caliber clubs and only a
painstaking 41-37 loss at Dallas in
Week 2 has Philadelphia looking up in
the standings. Right now, the Eagles
have to be considered one of the top
teams in the NFL. The numbers back
it up. Even with that 41-point effort by the Cowboys, HC Andy
Reid?s team is allowing just 242 YPG, holding its two other
opponents to 6 & 3 points respectively. On offense, led by the
resurgent Donovan McNabb, the Eagles are averaging 289
YPG thru the air and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Chicao, while
better than expected offensively in the early going, has still lost
a pair of heartbreakers that have demoralizing potential. The
Bears? offensive balance has been the key to their early season
offensive success. However, with Philly stopping the run at a 46
YPG and 2.4 YPR pace, this game figures to fall on Kyle Orton
for the first time this season. Like you are probably think, I don?t
like those chances either. Look for Philly to win a 5th straight
game in Chicago.
Play: Philadelphia -3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Games September 28-29
9/28/2008 (199) HOUSTON at (200) JACKSONVILLE
Hold your applause for Jacksonville everyone, the Jaguars are
not ?back? as most experts are now claiming. They simply beat
a struggling Colts team last weekend, a team that HC Jack Del
Rio?s team has always gotten up for and played competitively
against. The Jags struggle against the Texans, having gone
just 3-9 ATS in the L12 games of this head-to-head series.
Meanwhile, Houston certainly can?t be happy about its season
thus far, but let?s not forget, they?ve played two of the toughest
defenses in the NFL in the first two games and they?ve faced an
unusual scheduling situation. This will be their third straight road
game and with things finally getting back to some semblance of
normalcy on the home front, I expect the same on the football
field. This game price is an overreaction to Jacksonville?s win. The
last time the Texans faced a similar overpricing in Jacksonville,
they won outright 13-10 in 2006.
Play: Houston +7.5
9/28/2008 (203) SAN FRANCISCO at
(204) NEW ORLEANS
Far for me to be talking about which
teams are good or not after my personal
Week 3 performance, but I just don?t
get all the buzz about the Saints. This
team is 1-2 and giving up over 27 PPG
and nearly 400 YPG. This week they?ll
be hosting a San Francisco team that
has proven itself very offensively worthy
in the early going, averaging a lofty 8.6
yards per pass attempt. Anyone who
reads the StatFox site often knows how
important this stat is to handicapping
NFL games. When you can get a team
with this much big play potential playing
as a 6-point underdog, the numbers say
you gotta play it. If that?s not enough,
consider the tremendous defensive
advantage that the 49ers will enjoy here.
They are allowing 4.6 yards per play, the
Saints give up 6.3. In actuality, San Francisco?s YPP numbers
(6.5 offense, 4.6 defense) are characteristic of an elite team. This
pointspread doesn?t reflect it.
Play: San Francisco +6
9/28/2008 (207) MINNESOTA at (208) TENNESSEE
There aren?t too many occasions where a 3-0 team with the best
point differential is playing at home against a 1-2 team and only
laying 3-1/2 points. What gives? Why is Tennessee not getting
the respect that the Giants, Dallas, and Denver are getting?
Perhaps because they are winning with dominant defense and
not big play offense. Still, the Titans are outscoring opponents
by 14.3 PPG thus far and holding opponents to just 240.3 YPG
and 4.2 YPP. Here they?ll be hosting an unfamiliar foe that has
endured offensive struggles to date. This will be a very tough
spot for the Vikings, who?ve struggled on the road versus AFC
foes, losing seven straight games while going 1-5-1 ATS. The
Titans meanwhile, have thrived versus the NFC, covering 66.7%
of the time under Jeff Fisher. Tennessee is a solid team, it just
isn?t being treated as such.
Play: Tennessee -3.5
9/28/2008(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND
If San Diego is truly an elite team, this is a game where it
should easily take care of business. The Raiders have little to
no home field advantage to speak of and are the NFL?s most
discombobulated team. They are just 2-11 in their last 13 home
games. If Lane Kiffin were to survive this week?s rumors, this is still
a franchise with a cloud hanging over it. Meanwhile, San Diego?s
Super Bowl aspirations may have taken
a hit in the early going but the Chargers
are still breathing and ready to make a
run. They have dominated Oakland as
well, going 21-11 ATS overall since ?92,
and 13-3 ATS on the road. Norv Turner?s
team has also thrived in divisional play,
recognizing its importance. San Diego
could and should be in a much better
spot than it is now. They?ll eventually get
back to that spot, and in the meantime,
there will be some nice lines to take
advantage of.
Play: San Diego -7
9/28/2008 (217) PHILADELPHIA
at (218) CHICAGO
The NFC East Division is loaded
with playoff caliber clubs and only a
painstaking 41-37 loss at Dallas in
Week 2 has Philadelphia looking up in
the standings. Right now, the Eagles
have to be considered one of the top
teams in the NFL. The numbers back
it up. Even with that 41-point effort by the Cowboys, HC Andy
Reid?s team is allowing just 242 YPG, holding its two other
opponents to 6 & 3 points respectively. On offense, led by the
resurgent Donovan McNabb, the Eagles are averaging 289
YPG thru the air and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Chicao, while
better than expected offensively in the early going, has still lost
a pair of heartbreakers that have demoralizing potential. The
Bears? offensive balance has been the key to their early season
offensive success. However, with Philly stopping the run at a 46
YPG and 2.4 YPR pace, this game figures to fall on Kyle Orton
for the first time this season. Like you are probably think, I don?t
like those chances either. Look for Philly to win a 5th straight
game in Chicago.
Play: Philadelphia -3
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Sunshine Forecast
===============
NFL Computer Predictions
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Denver Broncos (-9) at Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 25 Kansas City Chiefs 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 31 Denver Broncos 23
Kansas City Chiefs (1 star)
Angle: Scored 30+ Points in Consecutive Games [Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 30 points ]
Go against Denver Broncos ( Won neither previous game by at least 7 points, 4-10-2, 28.6% )
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Denver Broncos ( No additional conditions, 44-65-3, 40.4% )
Historical trend: Take Kansas City Chiefs ( Domination by home team, 11-4-1, 73.3% )
Cleveland Browns (+3?) at Cincinnati Bengals
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati Bengals 22 Cleveland Browns 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 22 Cleveland Browns 21
Houston Texans (+7?) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 29 Houston Texans 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 31 Houston Texans 17
Historical trend: Take Houston Texans ( Domination by Houston Texans, 9-3, 75.0% )
Arizona Cardinals (+3?) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 21 Arizona Cardinals 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Jets 20 Arizona Cardinals 19
San Francisco 49ers (+6) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
New Orleans Saints 28 San Francisco 49ers 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 35 San Francisco 49ers 30
Atlanta Falcons (+7) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 19 Atlanta Falcons 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 13 Atlanta Falcons 10
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Tennessee Titans
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee Titans 20 Minnesota Vikings 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 14 Tennessee Titans 13
Green Bay Packers (+1?) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rating Projection:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Green Bay Packers 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 Green Bay Packers 28
Buffalo Bills (-8) at St Louis Rams
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo Bills 26 St Louis Rams 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 28 St Louis Rams 20
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Buffalo Bills ( No additional conditions, 44-65-3, 40.4% )
San Diego Chargers (-7) at Oakland Raiders
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 30 Oakland Raiders 21
Historical trend: Take San Diego Chargers ( Domination by San Diego Chargers, 12-4, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take San Diego Chargers ( Domination on the road by San Diego Chargers, 7-1, 87.5% )
Washington Redskins (+12) at Dallas Cowboys
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 25 Washington Redskins 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 28 Washington Redskins 23
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 25 Chicago Bears 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 31 Chicago Bears 28
Monday, September 29, 2008
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Baltimore Ravens 13
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
===============
NFL Computer Predictions
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Denver Broncos (-9) at Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 25 Kansas City Chiefs 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 31 Denver Broncos 23
Kansas City Chiefs (1 star)
Angle: Scored 30+ Points in Consecutive Games [Teams coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 30 points ]
Go against Denver Broncos ( Won neither previous game by at least 7 points, 4-10-2, 28.6% )
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Denver Broncos ( No additional conditions, 44-65-3, 40.4% )
Historical trend: Take Kansas City Chiefs ( Domination by home team, 11-4-1, 73.3% )
Cleveland Browns (+3?) at Cincinnati Bengals
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati Bengals 22 Cleveland Browns 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 22 Cleveland Browns 21
Houston Texans (+7?) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 29 Houston Texans 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 31 Houston Texans 17
Historical trend: Take Houston Texans ( Domination by Houston Texans, 9-3, 75.0% )
Arizona Cardinals (+3?) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 21 Arizona Cardinals 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Jets 20 Arizona Cardinals 19
San Francisco 49ers (+6) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
New Orleans Saints 28 San Francisco 49ers 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 35 San Francisco 49ers 30
Atlanta Falcons (+7) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 19 Atlanta Falcons 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 13 Atlanta Falcons 10
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Tennessee Titans
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee Titans 20 Minnesota Vikings 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota Vikings 14 Tennessee Titans 13
Green Bay Packers (+1?) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rating Projection:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Green Bay Packers 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 Green Bay Packers 28
Buffalo Bills (-8) at St Louis Rams
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo Bills 26 St Louis Rams 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 28 St Louis Rams 20
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Buffalo Bills ( No additional conditions, 44-65-3, 40.4% )
San Diego Chargers (-7) at Oakland Raiders
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 30 Oakland Raiders 21
Historical trend: Take San Diego Chargers ( Domination by San Diego Chargers, 12-4, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take San Diego Chargers ( Domination on the road by San Diego Chargers, 7-1, 87.5% )
Washington Redskins (+12) at Dallas Cowboys
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 25 Washington Redskins 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 28 Washington Redskins 23
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 25 Chicago Bears 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 31 Chicago Bears 28
Monday, September 29, 2008
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Baltimore Ravens 13
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Sunshine Forecast College
====================
CFB Computer Predictions
Thursday, September 25, 2008
S-M-U(+17) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
Tulane 32 S-M-U 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulane 32 S-M-U 21
Southern Cal(-24) at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 33 Oregon State 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 33 Oregon State 19
Angle: After Bye Week [Teams playing after a bye week ]
Go against Southern Cal ( Playing on the Road, Favored by 7?+ Points, 46-84-2, 35.4% )
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by home team, 6-1, 85.7% )
Friday, September 26, 2008
Connecticut(+3?) at Louisville
Power Rating Projection:
Louisville 29 Connecticut 28
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Connecticut 31 Louisville 30
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Navy(+15?) at Wake Forest
Power Rating Projection:
Wake Forest 38 Navy 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 44 Navy 31
Western Michigan(-4) at Temple
Power Rating Projection:
Western Michigan 25 Temple 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Temple 24 Western Michigan 18
Temple (1 star)
Marshall(+17) at West Virginia
Power Rating Projection:
West Virginia 41 Marshall 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
West Virginia 45 Marshall 24
Pittsburgh(-15?) at Syracuse
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh 33 Syracuse 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 32 Syracuse 17
Historical trend: Take Pittsburgh ( Domination by favorite, 6-2, 75.0% )
Michigan State(-8?) at Indiana
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan State 28 Indiana 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 30 Indiana 28
Northwestern(+8) at Iowa
Power Rating Projection:
Iowa 28 Northwestern 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa 27 Northwestern 17
Virginia(+7) at Duke
Power Rating Projection:
Duke 29 Virginia 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Duke 31 Virginia 30
Historical trend: Take Duke ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
North Carolina(+7?) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Florida 24 North Carolina 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Florida 21 North Carolina 20
Mississippi(+23) at Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Florida 46 Mississippi 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 51 Mississippi 21
Mississippi State(+24) at Louisiana State
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana State 38 Mississippi State 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 38 Mississippi State 14
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination by Louisiana State, 7-1, 87.5% )
Northern Illinois(-6) at Eastern Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Eastern Michigan 27 Northern Illinois 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Eastern Michigan 27 Northern Illinois 26
Historical trend: Take Northern Illinois ( Domination by visiting team, 6-1-1, 85.7% )
Buffalo(+6) at Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 31 Buffalo 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 34 Buffalo 28
Cincinnati(-10) at Akron
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati 40 Akron 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati 47 Akron 31
Houston(+10?) at East Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
East Carolina 34 Houston 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
East Carolina 38 Houston 30
Purdue(+2?) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection:
Purdue 32 Notre Dame 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Purdue 34 Notre Dame 27
Minnesota(+17?) at Ohio State
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio State 35 Minnesota 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 42 Minnesota 17
Ohio State (1 star)
Virginia Tech(+7) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 32 Virginia Tech 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia Tech 35 Nebraska 30
Virginia Tech (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game [Teams playing 4th straight home game ]
Go against Nebraska ( Won previous three games, Previous three games had betting line, 8-21, 27.6% )
Stanford(+3?) at Washington
Power Rating Projection:
Stanford 27 Washington 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Stanford 29 Washington 28
Colorado State(+25) at California
Power Rating Projection:
California 38 Colorado State 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 44 Colorado State 28
Alabama(+6?) at Georgia
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 26 Alabama 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 26 Alabama 23
Tennessee(+6?) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 32 Tennessee 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 35 Tennessee 27
Wisconsin(-6?) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Wisconsin 21 Michigan 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 16 Michigan 14
Historical trend: Take Michigan ( Domination by underdog, 5-0-1, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Wisconsin ( Domination by Wisconsin, 5-0-1, 100.0% )
Maryland(+11?) at Clemson
Power Rating Projection:
Clemson 30 Maryland 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Clemson 24 Maryland 23
Maryland (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Maryland ( Domination on the road by Maryland, 4-0, 100.0% )
Fresno State(-7) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection:
Fresno State 29 U.C.L.A. 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Fresno State 31 U.C.L.A. 30
Bowling Green(-3?) at Wyoming
Power Rating Projection:
Wyoming 21 Bowling Green 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wyoming 17 Bowling Green 15
Oregon(-20) at Washington State
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon 44 Washington State 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon 48 Washington State 20
Historical trend: Take Washington State ( Domination by underdog at Washington State, 5-1, 83.3% )
Texas Christian(+17?) at Oklahoma
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma 44 Texas Christian 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma 50 Texas Christian 30
U-A-B(+24?) at South Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
South Carolina 40 U-A-B 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Carolina 42 U-A-B 17
Army(+28) at Texas A+M
Power Rating Projection:
Texas A+M 36 Army 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas A+M 35 Army 10
Kent State(+17) at Ball State
Power Rating Projection:
Ball State 43 Kent State 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ball State 48 Kent State 21
South Florida(-8?) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection:
South Florida 32 No Carolina State 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Florida 27 No Carolina State 25
No Carolina State (1 star)
Colorado(+6) at Florida State [@ Jacksonville FL]
Power Rating Projection:
Florida State 27 Colorado 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida State 26 Colorado 22
U-C-F(-5) at UTEP
Power Rating Projection:
U-C-F 35 UTEP 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-C-F 41 UTEP 31
Illinois(+13?) at Penn State
Power Rating Projection:
Penn State 37 Illinois 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 42 Illinois 30
New Mexico(-3) at New Mexico State
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 28 New Mexico State 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 27 New Mexico State 17
Idaho(+11?) at San Diego State
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego State 42 Idaho 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego State 48 Idaho 27
Nevada-Reno(+3?) at Nevada-Las Vegas
Power Rating Projection:
Nevada-Las Vegas 35 Nevada-Reno 28
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nevada-Las Vegas 42 Nevada-Reno 34
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by favorite at Nevada-Las Vegas, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
San Jose State(+3) at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Hawaii 30 San Jose State 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 28 San Jose State 17
Western Kentucky(+22) at Kentucky
Power Rating Projection:
Kentucky 44 Western Kentucky 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kentucky 44 Western Kentucky 16
Arkansas State(+1) at Memphis
Power Rating Projection:
Arkansas State 29 Memphis 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas State 30 Memphis 24
Troy(+16) at Oklahoma State
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma State 40 Troy 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma State 42 Troy 38
Troy (1 star)
Florida Intl(+17?) at Toledo
Power Rating Projection:
Toledo 47 Florida Intl 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Toledo 53 Florida Intl 29
UL-Lafayette(+21) at Kansas State
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas State 46 UL-Lafayette 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas State 52 UL-Lafayette 20
North Texas(+19) at Rice
Power Rating Projection:
Rice 43 North Texas 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rice 50 North Texas 27
Arkansas(+28) at Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 38 Arkansas 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 40 Arkansas 19
Rhode Island at Boston College
Power Rating Projection:
Boston College 39 Rhode Island 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 44 Rhode Island 0
Virginia Military at Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio 31 Virginia Military 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio 32 Virginia Military 0
Morgan State at Rutgers
Power Rating Projection:
Rutgers 31 Morgan State 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rutgers 38 Morgan State 0
Central Arkansas at Tulsa
Power Rating Projection:
Tulsa 53 Central Arkansas 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulsa 54 Central Arkansas 3
Weber State at Utah
Power Rating Projection:
Utah 50 Weber State 4
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 52 Weber State 6
====================
CFB Computer Predictions
Thursday, September 25, 2008
S-M-U(+17) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
Tulane 32 S-M-U 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulane 32 S-M-U 21
Southern Cal(-24) at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 33 Oregon State 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 33 Oregon State 19
Angle: After Bye Week [Teams playing after a bye week ]
Go against Southern Cal ( Playing on the Road, Favored by 7?+ Points, 46-84-2, 35.4% )
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by home team, 6-1, 85.7% )
Friday, September 26, 2008
Connecticut(+3?) at Louisville
Power Rating Projection:
Louisville 29 Connecticut 28
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Connecticut 31 Louisville 30
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Navy(+15?) at Wake Forest
Power Rating Projection:
Wake Forest 38 Navy 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 44 Navy 31
Western Michigan(-4) at Temple
Power Rating Projection:
Western Michigan 25 Temple 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Temple 24 Western Michigan 18
Temple (1 star)
Marshall(+17) at West Virginia
Power Rating Projection:
West Virginia 41 Marshall 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
West Virginia 45 Marshall 24
Pittsburgh(-15?) at Syracuse
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh 33 Syracuse 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 32 Syracuse 17
Historical trend: Take Pittsburgh ( Domination by favorite, 6-2, 75.0% )
Michigan State(-8?) at Indiana
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan State 28 Indiana 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 30 Indiana 28
Northwestern(+8) at Iowa
Power Rating Projection:
Iowa 28 Northwestern 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa 27 Northwestern 17
Virginia(+7) at Duke
Power Rating Projection:
Duke 29 Virginia 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Duke 31 Virginia 30
Historical trend: Take Duke ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
North Carolina(+7?) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Florida 24 North Carolina 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Florida 21 North Carolina 20
Mississippi(+23) at Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Florida 46 Mississippi 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 51 Mississippi 21
Mississippi State(+24) at Louisiana State
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana State 38 Mississippi State 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 38 Mississippi State 14
Historical trend: Take Louisiana State ( Domination by Louisiana State, 7-1, 87.5% )
Northern Illinois(-6) at Eastern Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Eastern Michigan 27 Northern Illinois 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Eastern Michigan 27 Northern Illinois 26
Historical trend: Take Northern Illinois ( Domination by visiting team, 6-1-1, 85.7% )
Buffalo(+6) at Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 31 Buffalo 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 34 Buffalo 28
Cincinnati(-10) at Akron
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati 40 Akron 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati 47 Akron 31
Houston(+10?) at East Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
East Carolina 34 Houston 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
East Carolina 38 Houston 30
Purdue(+2?) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection:
Purdue 32 Notre Dame 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Purdue 34 Notre Dame 27
Minnesota(+17?) at Ohio State
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio State 35 Minnesota 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 42 Minnesota 17
Ohio State (1 star)
Virginia Tech(+7) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 32 Virginia Tech 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia Tech 35 Nebraska 30
Virginia Tech (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game [Teams playing 4th straight home game ]
Go against Nebraska ( Won previous three games, Previous three games had betting line, 8-21, 27.6% )
Stanford(+3?) at Washington
Power Rating Projection:
Stanford 27 Washington 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Stanford 29 Washington 28
Colorado State(+25) at California
Power Rating Projection:
California 38 Colorado State 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 44 Colorado State 28
Alabama(+6?) at Georgia
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 26 Alabama 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 26 Alabama 23
Tennessee(+6?) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 32 Tennessee 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 35 Tennessee 27
Wisconsin(-6?) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Wisconsin 21 Michigan 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 16 Michigan 14
Historical trend: Take Michigan ( Domination by underdog, 5-0-1, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Wisconsin ( Domination by Wisconsin, 5-0-1, 100.0% )
Maryland(+11?) at Clemson
Power Rating Projection:
Clemson 30 Maryland 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Clemson 24 Maryland 23
Maryland (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Maryland ( Domination on the road by Maryland, 4-0, 100.0% )
Fresno State(-7) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection:
Fresno State 29 U.C.L.A. 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Fresno State 31 U.C.L.A. 30
Bowling Green(-3?) at Wyoming
Power Rating Projection:
Wyoming 21 Bowling Green 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wyoming 17 Bowling Green 15
Oregon(-20) at Washington State
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon 44 Washington State 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon 48 Washington State 20
Historical trend: Take Washington State ( Domination by underdog at Washington State, 5-1, 83.3% )
Texas Christian(+17?) at Oklahoma
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma 44 Texas Christian 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma 50 Texas Christian 30
U-A-B(+24?) at South Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
South Carolina 40 U-A-B 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Carolina 42 U-A-B 17
Army(+28) at Texas A+M
Power Rating Projection:
Texas A+M 36 Army 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas A+M 35 Army 10
Kent State(+17) at Ball State
Power Rating Projection:
Ball State 43 Kent State 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ball State 48 Kent State 21
South Florida(-8?) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection:
South Florida 32 No Carolina State 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Florida 27 No Carolina State 25
No Carolina State (1 star)
Colorado(+6) at Florida State [@ Jacksonville FL]
Power Rating Projection:
Florida State 27 Colorado 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida State 26 Colorado 22
U-C-F(-5) at UTEP
Power Rating Projection:
U-C-F 35 UTEP 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-C-F 41 UTEP 31
Illinois(+13?) at Penn State
Power Rating Projection:
Penn State 37 Illinois 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 42 Illinois 30
New Mexico(-3) at New Mexico State
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 28 New Mexico State 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 27 New Mexico State 17
Idaho(+11?) at San Diego State
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego State 42 Idaho 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego State 48 Idaho 27
Nevada-Reno(+3?) at Nevada-Las Vegas
Power Rating Projection:
Nevada-Las Vegas 35 Nevada-Reno 28
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nevada-Las Vegas 42 Nevada-Reno 34
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by favorite at Nevada-Las Vegas, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
San Jose State(+3) at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Hawaii 30 San Jose State 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 28 San Jose State 17
Western Kentucky(+22) at Kentucky
Power Rating Projection:
Kentucky 44 Western Kentucky 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kentucky 44 Western Kentucky 16
Arkansas State(+1) at Memphis
Power Rating Projection:
Arkansas State 29 Memphis 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas State 30 Memphis 24
Troy(+16) at Oklahoma State
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma State 40 Troy 27
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma State 42 Troy 38
Troy (1 star)
Florida Intl(+17?) at Toledo
Power Rating Projection:
Toledo 47 Florida Intl 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Toledo 53 Florida Intl 29
UL-Lafayette(+21) at Kansas State
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas State 46 UL-Lafayette 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas State 52 UL-Lafayette 20
North Texas(+19) at Rice
Power Rating Projection:
Rice 43 North Texas 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rice 50 North Texas 27
Arkansas(+28) at Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 38 Arkansas 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 40 Arkansas 19
Rhode Island at Boston College
Power Rating Projection:
Boston College 39 Rhode Island 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 44 Rhode Island 0
Virginia Military at Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio 31 Virginia Military 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio 32 Virginia Military 0
Morgan State at Rutgers
Power Rating Projection:
Rutgers 31 Morgan State 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rutgers 38 Morgan State 0
Central Arkansas at Tulsa
Power Rating Projection:
Tulsa 53 Central Arkansas 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulsa 54 Central Arkansas 3
Weber State at Utah
Power Rating Projection:
Utah 50 Weber State 4
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 52 Weber State 6
The Gold Sheet Extra 9/25- 9/30
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
TULANE
One of the most important elements of handicapping is to be on top
of emerging teams and trends, and try to capitalize upon any
extended pointspread win or losing streaks before it gets too late.
Such is the case with surging Tulane, one of the early-season
surprise teams and ready to continue its upswing Thursday night
when hosting SMU at the Superdome. HC Bob Toledo’s Green Wave
has covered its first three out of the chute in 2008, extending its
pointspread run to 5-1 its last 6 on the board since late 2007.
Meanwhile, the Mustangs continue to struggle, dropping 2 of their
first 3 vs. the line and now 11 of their last 16 dating to late ‘06.
DUKE
One of the most-pronounced team trends in recent years has been
Virginia’s ongoing failures on the road. The Cavaliers stand a poor 9-
24 vs. the number their last 33 as a visitor for HC Al Groh, and a mere
4-13 vs. the points their last 17 as a visiting dog. And please note
how poorly the Cavs have fared lately, reflected in their lowly -24.75
“AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number their past two on the board.
All of that could mean bad news for UVa when it travels to Durham for
a Saturday date vs. revived Duke. The Blue Devils have been one of
those early streakers in 2008, covering their first 2 on the board, and
are a featured Rested Home Winner recommendation this week.
VIRGINIA TECH
Virginia Tech has been providing such good pointspread value
on the road for so long that it almost seems like the Hokies should
be an automatic recommendation whenever that situation arises.
Which it does again this Saturday at Nebraska. Tech is simply
one of the best road performers in the land, reflected in its 16-3
spread mark its last 19 as a true visitor, and has posted quite an
underdog mark as well, standing 11-2 vs. the points its last 13 as
the “short.” The Hokies are a featured recommendation in a
number of systems this week, including Coach & Pointspread &
College Coach as Underdog with HC Frank Beamer, as well as a
Power Underdog play.
FRESNO STATE
As mentioned in the Tulane writeup, it’s important to keep on top of
pointspread developments as they are happening, and try to catch
extended winning or losing spread streaks in their earliest stages.
One of those barometers we use to measure a team’s current form is
the “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) calculation. And over the last two
weeks, there hasn’t been a worse “AFS” team in the country than
UCLA, a whopping -34.00 in that span. Needless to say, the Bruins
didn’t cover either of those games, which is another good reason
we’re going to recommend visiting Fresno State for their Saturday tilt
at the Rose Bowl.
SAN JOSE STATE
That was a tough loss San Jose State endured last week at
Stanford, but indicators are still pointing up for the Spartans...and
they’re not for Hawaii, which hosts Dick Tomey’s troops Saturday
night in Honolulu. The Warriors have fallen off the map in the early
going, crushed in their first two pointspread decisions, reflected in a
poor -17.50 “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) mark. UH is also just 4-9 vs.
the line its last 13 on the board, while SJSU has covered 8 of its last
vs. the number.
SAN FRAN.-N.ORL. “OVER”
It’s not hard to recognize New Orleans’ recent “totals” pattern, one
of the most-pronounced in the league. Simply, it’s “over” time when
the Saints take the field these days, and expect more of the same for
Sunday’s home encounter vs. San Francisco. The Saints are "over"
in their first three this season and 16 of their last 22, as well as 8 of
their last 11 at the Superdome.
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the "tech edge"
SMU at TULANE (Thursday, September 25)...Road team has
won and covered last 3 meetings, including exciting Wave win LY at
Dallas in OT. Tulane has not been DD chalk since ’03 vs. Army, but
Bob Toledo 2-0 vs. line TY, 4-1 last 5 on board. Tech edge-Tulane,
based on recent trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at OREGON STATE (Thursday, September
25)...Trojans have had their problems this decade at Corvallis, losing
2 of 3 trips SU and failing to cover any of those, including pointpsread
losses by powerful ’04 & ’06 teams (losing SU in ’06 by 33-31 count).
Riley 7-2 vs. line last 9 at home, though Beavs just 1-3 as home dog
since ’05 (win coming vs. SC in ’06). Tech edge-slight to OSU,
based on series home trends.
UCONN at LOUISVILLE (Friday, September 26)...Edsall not quite
as tough on road as at home in recent years (6-10 vs. line away, 14-
4 vs. spread at home since ’05). Tech edge-UL, based on UConn
home/road pattern.
NAVY at WAKE FOREST...Mids no covers first 2 away TY and now
just 2-5 vs. line last 7 as visitor. Grobe covered 5 of 7 as favorite LY
and also established home field edge at Winston-Salem (5-1 vs.
spread as host LY). Tech edge-slight to Wake, based on recent
trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at TEMPLE...Owlies now 15-9 last 24 on
board since mid ’06 for Al Golden. Owls 8-3 vs. line at Linc for Golden,
and Temple 2-1 in rare chalk role for Golden. Broncos only 4-9-1 vs.
line since LY. Tech edge-Temple, based on recent trends.
MARSHALL at WEST VIRGINIA...Herd 1-2 vs .line TY and now 5-
19-1 vs. line last 24 away from Huntington. WVU only 5-5-1 as DD
chalk at Morgantown the past two years and has dropped last 2 on
board TY.. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended Herd
road woes.
PITT at SYRACUSE...Robinson on 0-6 spread run since late LY
and just 4-15 last 19 vs. number. Robinson also no covers last 7 as
Carrier Dome dog. Tech edge-Pitt, based on Robinson negatives.
MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Home team has won and covered
last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Hoosiers 5-2 vs. line last 7 as Big Ten
host. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, absed on series home trends.
NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Underdog team has won SU last 3
meetings. Ferentz 4-11 as chalk since ’06, 9-18-1 vs. line last 28
overall on board. Tech edge-NU, based on series and team trends.
VIRGINIA at DUKE...Al Groh now 9-24 vs. line last 33 as visitor, 4-
13 last 17 as visiting dog Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Heels have covered 3 of
4 (2-2 SU) since Canes joined ACC in ’04. Canes only 2-5 vs. line at
home for Shannon LY and 12-25 vs. spread last 37 as host. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, based on team trends.
OLE MISS at FLORIDA...Rebs have covered 2 of first 3 for Houston
Nutt, and remember that Ole Miss still fared well as dog for Orgeron
(10-7 last 2 years; Rebs now 11-7 as dog since ’06). Urban Meyer has
covered last 7 reg.-season games, however, and is now 7-1 vs. line
at Swamp since LY. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on team
trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU...LSU has really brutalized MSU over
the years, winning last 8 SU by hefty DD margins, covering 10 of last
11 and 14 of last 16 in series. Les Miles, however, only 2-8-1 vs. line
last 10 reg.-season games, and Sly Croom 7-3-1 vs. number last 10
as visitor. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on series trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Road team has
covered last 7 meetings! EMU only 4-11 vs. line last 15 on board, and
Eagles just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Rynearson Stadium. Tech edge-
NIU, based on series and team trends.
BUFFALO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN..Chips are 10-2-2 vs. line at
Mt. Pleasant since ’05, although they surprisingly haven’t covered 5
of last 6 reg.-season games. Turner Gill 5-1 vs. line last 6 as dog.
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at AKRON...Cincy 17-8-1 vs. line since ’06, and Brian
Kelly teams 26-9-3 vs. line since ’05. Kelly teams also 15-6 vs. line
as chalk that span. Zips tough as Rubber Bowl dog, however,
covering all 4 chances in role since ’05. Tech edge-slight to Cincy,
based on extended team trends.
HOUSTON at EAST CAROLINA...ECU won a wild one at UH LY
and has covered 5 of 6 meetings since ’00. Skip 7-3 as home chalk
since arriving at ECU in ’05. Cougs no covers last 8 on board since
late LY. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
PURDUE at NOTRE DAME...Note that road team has covered last
4 meetings. Weis only 10-20-1 vs. line last 31 on board overall.
Tiller’s recent visitor mark (7-3-1 vs. line since ’06) a lot better than his
home mark lately. Tech edge-Purdue, based on team trends.
MINNESOTA at OHIO STATE...Tressel has dominated Gophers
and has covered 4 of last 5 in series. Buckeyes 13-8 as DD home
chalk since ’05. Tech edge-Ohio State, based on team and
extended series trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at NEBRASKA...Beamer 15-3 vs. line last 18 as
true visitor, and 10-2 as dog since 2001. Tech edge-Beamer, based
on extended trends.
STANFORD at WASHINGTON...Ugh! Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last
4 meetings. Harbaugh only 5-8 as dog as Tree HC. Ty only 3-6 as
chalk at U-Dub and 8-13 vs. spread as host since taking over in ’05
(1-5 as home chalk that span). Tech edge-slight to Tree, based on
series and team trends.
COLORADO STATE at CAL...Rams actually covered meeting at
Fort Collins LY, and were 3-2 for Lubick as visiting dog LY. Tedford
only 3-13-1 vs. line as DD chalk since ’05. Tech edge-slight to CSU,
based on extended Cal DD chalk woes.
ALABAMA at GEORGIA...Georgia has covered 4 of last 5 between
the hedges since mid ’07 and is 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Tech
edge-slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at AUBURN...Fulmer 5-4-1 as dog since ’06 and 13-
7-1 as dog since ’03. Tuberville only 6-13 vs. line last 19 as chalk, 4-
8 vs. spread last 12 at Jordan-Hare. Tech edge-slight to UT, based
on team trends.
WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN...Badgers now 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in
series. Badgers 9-5 vs. line at Camp Randall under Bielema. Tech
edge-Wisconsin, based on series and recent team trends.
MARYLANDat CLEMSON...Road team has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6
in series, but Ralph only 4-8 vs. line as visitor since ’06. Tommy
Bowden now on 5-game pointspread slide since late LY. Terps 6-2
vs. line last 8 in series. Tech edge-Maryland, based on series and
recent team trends.
FRESNO STATE at UCLA...If getting points, note Pat Hill 5-1 as
dog away from Fresno since LY. Throw out bad ’06 and Pat Hill 21-
10 last 31 as dog. Bruins 17-5 vs. line at Rose Bowl since late ’04 but
no covers last 2 in '08 Tech edge-Fresno, especially if dog, based
on team trends.
BOWLING GREEN at WYOMING...Wyo on 0-10-1 spread run last
11 on board and 2-15-1 last 18 against number. BGSU has covered
first two on road TY and is 6-1 vs. line last 7 reg.-season games since
late ’07. Pokes also 1-7-1 last 9 at Laramie. Tech edge-BGSU,
based on recent trends.
OREGON at WASHINGTON STATE...Ducks 4-6 as visiting chalk
since ’06, but Bellotti 35-20 vs. line last 55 on board. Cougs 0-3 vs.
line under Wulff. Tech edge-Oregon, based on recent trends.
TCU at OKLAHOMA...Frogs have been better at home vs. line than
on road in recent years, but note TCU 7-2 as DD dog since ’98 (1-0 since
’05, that being ’05 opener vs. Sooners). Stoops 10-3-1 as Norman chalk
since ’06. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on team trends.
UAB at SOUTH CAROLINA...UAB now 2-7 vs. spread last 9 on
board. Spurrier 15-8-1 vs. line last 24 on board, 9-4 last 13 as chalk.
Also 6-3 as DD chalk since taking over Gamecocks since ’05. Tech
edge-SC, based on UAB woes.
ARMY at TEXAS A&M...Army 7-18 vs. line last 25 on board, 4-9 last
13 as visitor. Stan Brock no covers last 4 away from home. Tech
edge-slight to A&M, based on recent Army woes.
KENT STATE at BALL STATE...Ball State 17-8 vs. line since ’06,
9-3 vs. line as chalk since ’06. Golden Flashes only 1-7 last 8 as dog
(0-2 TY) and 2-13 last 15 overall on board. Tech edge-Ball State,
based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at NC STATE...Bulls only 2-6 vs. line last 8 as
visiting chalk. Not much home edge lately for Wolfpack, however, just
2-4 vs. line at Raleigh for O’Brien LY, and a solid 33% previously as
host (4-8 since ’06, 6-12 since ’05). Tech edge-slight to USF, based
on NCS negatives.
COLORADO vs. FLORIDA STATE (at Jacksonville)...Hawkins
only 5-10-1 as “short” since taking over Buffs in ’06. Tech edgeslight
to FSU, based on extended CU dog marks.
UCF at UTEP...If UCF a dog note 1-9 mark vs. line as visiting dog
since ’03. UTEP no covers first 2 TY (both as dog) but if Miners a dog,
note Price 13-7-1 last 21 as short. Tech edge-UTEP, based on team
trends.
ILLINOIS at PENN STATE...Zook has covered the last 2 vs.
Shades and beat him SU at Champaign-Urbana LY. Shades 11-6 as
home chalk since ’05, however. Zook 4-1 vs. line as true visitor LY
and 6-2 as DD dog since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Zook, based on
team trends.
NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Road team had covered
4 straight in series until Lobos won and covered at Albuquerque LY.
Rocky was 0-2 as road chalk LY, and NMSU 6-3-1 vs. line last 10 at
home. Tech edge-NMSU, based on team trends. .
IDAHO at SAN DIEGO STATE...Vandals 0-5 last 5, 1-10 last 11 on
board since early ’07. Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on team
trends.
NEVADA at UNLV...Fremont Cannon! Home team has covered 5
of last 6 in series, although Wolf Pack rolled 31-3 in last trip to Vegas
in ’06, and Pack has won and covered last 3 meetings. Tech edgeslight
to Nevada, based on recent series trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at HAWAII...Leahey has won last 7 in series,
although Dick Tomey has covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 on board since
early ’07. UH just 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board. Tech edge-SJSU,
based on recent UH woes.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at KENTUCKY...UK just 2-6 vs. line last 8
on board since late LY, no covers last 3 as home chalk. Tech edgeslight
to WKU, based on recent trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at MEMPHIS...Underdog team has covered
last 3 meetings. If Memphis chalk note 3-7 spread mark at Liberty
Bowl in role since ’05, and Tommy West just 5-10 vs. line last 15 as
chalk overall. If ASU a dog, note 8-4 mark on road in role since ’06.
Tech edge-Arkansas State, if dog, based on team trends.
TROY at OKLAHOMA STATE...Revenge for OSU after getting
whipped at Troy 41-23 LY. Trojans, however, solid 8-3 as dog since
’06 and 12-4 vs. spread away from home that span. Cowboys have
covered their last 6 as DD chalk, however. Tech edge-slight to Troy,
based on extended trends.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TOLEDO...Amstutz just 2-6 as DD
chalk since ’06, but is 6-1 vs. line hosting non-conference opposition
since taking over in ’01. Tech edge-slight to Toledo, based on team
trends.
LOUISIANA at KANSAS STATE...Cajuns now 5-2 last 7 as DD road
dog after combative cover at Illinois. KSU now 1-5 vs. line last 6 on
board (only cover against North Texas), although Ron Prince is 7-1 vs.
line as home chalk since ’06 (4-0 laying DDs since ’06 at home). Tech
edge-slight to KSU, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at RICE...UNT 2-17 vs. line last 19 away from Denton
vs non-Belt foes. Tech edge-Rice, based on UNT negatives
NFL
DENVER at KANSAS CITY...Broncos dominated LY, winning and
covering both by hefty 68-18 combined score. Although Broncos had
failed to win previous 4 or cover previous 3 at Arrowhead. “Overs” 10-
3 last 13 meetings. Chiefs just 1-7-1 vs. line themselves their last 9
at Arrowhead. Tech edge-Broncos and “over,” based on recent
team and series “totals” trends.
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI...Bengals “under” 7-2 last 9 on
board, Brownies “under” last 9 on board since late LY. Tech edge-
“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE...Texans have done well in this
series, covering 9 of 12 all-time vs. Jags (3-1 vs. line the last 2 years,
loss came at Alltel LY). Texans “over” 15-7-1 previous 23. Tech
edge-“Over” and Texans, based on series and “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at NY JETS...Mangini 2-6-1 vs. line as host since LY.
Jets “under” 6 straight since late ’07, though Cards “over” 12-7 for
Whisenhunt (since ’07) and “over” 32-18-1 last 51 since late ’04. Tech
edge-slight to Cards, based on recent Jets home woes.
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS...Saints “over” 16-6 last 22
on board. NO also just 4-11 vs. line as Superdome chalk since ’06 (1-
0 TY). Tech edge-“Over” and 49ers, based on “totals” and team
trends.
ATLANTA at CAROLINA...”Unders” 11-4-1 last 15 in series. Falcs
“under” 13-4 away since ’06, and Panthers “under” 11-5-1 at Charlotte
since ‘06. Road team has won and covered last 5 meetings. Tech
edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
MINNESOTA at TENNESSEE...Vikes “under” 7-3 last 10 away.
Titans have turned into an “under” team after being an “over” in ’06,
now “under” 13-7 since ’07. Tech edge-“Under,” based on
“totals”trends.
GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY...Gruden now 6-2 vs. line as home
chalk since LY, but Pack 10-2-1 vs. line last 13 away since late ’06 (1-
0 TY). Pack also “over” 8-1 away since LY and “over” 16-4 since ’07.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on Pack “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at ST. LOUIS...Rams now 5-13 vs. line since ’07 (0-2
TY), 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at Edward Jones Dome. Rams “over” 11-
5-1 at home since ’06 (1-0 TY), 17-8-1 “over” last 26 as host. Tech
edge-Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND...All Bolts lately in this spirited rivalry, as
Chargers have won last 9 meetings SU and stand 9-1 vs. line last 10
meetings. 5 of last 6 meetings “under” as well, but Chargers “over”
14-5 away since ‘06. Bolts have also covered last 6 at Oakland.
Raiders poor 11-29-1 vs. line at home since ’03. Tech edge-
Chargers and slight to “over,” based on team and Bolt “totals”
trends.
WASHINGTON at DALLAS...Skins getting upper hand lately in
series, covering both meetings LY and 5 of last 6. Tech edge-slight
to Redskins, based on recent series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO...Birds now 10-2 vs. line last 12 as
visitor, also “over” 11-6 last 17 as visitor. Bears “over” 15-4 last 19 at
Soldier Field. Tech edge-“Over” and Eagles, based on “totals”
and team trends.
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (Monday, September 29)...Series
“over” last 3, and Ravens have covered 5 of last 6 meetings, though
they were routed 38-7 at Heinz Field LY. Tomlin, however, is 7-3
vs. line at home since LY, and Steel 11-6 as home chalk since ’06.
Steel also “over” 42-14-1 at Heinz Field since late ’01. Tech edge-
“Over” and slight to Steel, based on “totals” and team trends
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Texas, AUBURN
over Tennessee@, BALL STATE over Kent State, CINCINNATI over
Akron, EAST CAROLINA over Houston, MICHIGAN over Wisconsin,
NICHIGAN STATE over Indiana, OHIO STATE over minnesota,
OREGON over Washington State, SOUTH FLORIDA over NC State@,
TCU over Oklahoma@, VIRGINIA TECH over Nebraska@.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-ILLINOIS over Penn State@,
MICHIGAN STATE* over Indiana, NC STATE over South Florida@,
UTEP* over Ucf, UCLA* over Fresno State, VIRGINIA TECH over
Nebraska@.
RIVALRY DOGS-NEW MEXICO STATE over New Mexico, and
dog in NEVADA-UNLV game.
POWER UNDERDOGS-OREGON STATE over Southern Cal
(Thursday, September 25), ALABAMA over Georgia, ILLINOIS over
Penn State@, MICHIGAN over Wisconsin, NAVY over Wake Forest,
PURDUE* over Notre Dame, TENNESSEE over Auburn@, TCU over
Oklahoma@, VIRGINIA TECH over Nebraska@, and dog in FRESNO
STATE-UCLA game.
PAINFUL MEMORY-No plays this week.
POWER REVENGE-PENN STATE over Illinois@.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-OREGON STATE oer Southern Cal
(Thursday, September 25), DUKE over Virginia@, NEBRASKA over
Virginia Tech@, OKLAHOMA over Tcu@, OKLAHOMA ST. over Troy.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over San Diego State.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-OREGON STATE over
Southern Cal (Thursday, September 25), NORTH TEXAS over Rice,
NAVYover Wake Forest, STANFORD over Washington; off
pointspread loss-COLORADO STATE over Cal.
"NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-GREEN BAY over Tampa Bay,
PHILADELPHIA* over Chicago.
FAMILIARITY-KANSAS CITy over Denver, CINCINNATI# over
Cleveland, OAKLAND over San Diego.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK- KANSAS CITY over Denver, St.
LOUIS over Buffalo.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-CAROLINA over Atlanta.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems.
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
TULANE
One of the most important elements of handicapping is to be on top
of emerging teams and trends, and try to capitalize upon any
extended pointspread win or losing streaks before it gets too late.
Such is the case with surging Tulane, one of the early-season
surprise teams and ready to continue its upswing Thursday night
when hosting SMU at the Superdome. HC Bob Toledo’s Green Wave
has covered its first three out of the chute in 2008, extending its
pointspread run to 5-1 its last 6 on the board since late 2007.
Meanwhile, the Mustangs continue to struggle, dropping 2 of their
first 3 vs. the line and now 11 of their last 16 dating to late ‘06.
DUKE
One of the most-pronounced team trends in recent years has been
Virginia’s ongoing failures on the road. The Cavaliers stand a poor 9-
24 vs. the number their last 33 as a visitor for HC Al Groh, and a mere
4-13 vs. the points their last 17 as a visiting dog. And please note
how poorly the Cavs have fared lately, reflected in their lowly -24.75
“AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number their past two on the board.
All of that could mean bad news for UVa when it travels to Durham for
a Saturday date vs. revived Duke. The Blue Devils have been one of
those early streakers in 2008, covering their first 2 on the board, and
are a featured Rested Home Winner recommendation this week.
VIRGINIA TECH
Virginia Tech has been providing such good pointspread value
on the road for so long that it almost seems like the Hokies should
be an automatic recommendation whenever that situation arises.
Which it does again this Saturday at Nebraska. Tech is simply
one of the best road performers in the land, reflected in its 16-3
spread mark its last 19 as a true visitor, and has posted quite an
underdog mark as well, standing 11-2 vs. the points its last 13 as
the “short.” The Hokies are a featured recommendation in a
number of systems this week, including Coach & Pointspread &
College Coach as Underdog with HC Frank Beamer, as well as a
Power Underdog play.
FRESNO STATE
As mentioned in the Tulane writeup, it’s important to keep on top of
pointspread developments as they are happening, and try to catch
extended winning or losing spread streaks in their earliest stages.
One of those barometers we use to measure a team’s current form is
the “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) calculation. And over the last two
weeks, there hasn’t been a worse “AFS” team in the country than
UCLA, a whopping -34.00 in that span. Needless to say, the Bruins
didn’t cover either of those games, which is another good reason
we’re going to recommend visiting Fresno State for their Saturday tilt
at the Rose Bowl.
SAN JOSE STATE
That was a tough loss San Jose State endured last week at
Stanford, but indicators are still pointing up for the Spartans...and
they’re not for Hawaii, which hosts Dick Tomey’s troops Saturday
night in Honolulu. The Warriors have fallen off the map in the early
going, crushed in their first two pointspread decisions, reflected in a
poor -17.50 “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) mark. UH is also just 4-9 vs.
the line its last 13 on the board, while SJSU has covered 8 of its last
vs. the number.
SAN FRAN.-N.ORL. “OVER”
It’s not hard to recognize New Orleans’ recent “totals” pattern, one
of the most-pronounced in the league. Simply, it’s “over” time when
the Saints take the field these days, and expect more of the same for
Sunday’s home encounter vs. San Francisco. The Saints are "over"
in their first three this season and 16 of their last 22, as well as 8 of
their last 11 at the Superdome.
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the "tech edge"
SMU at TULANE (Thursday, September 25)...Road team has
won and covered last 3 meetings, including exciting Wave win LY at
Dallas in OT. Tulane has not been DD chalk since ’03 vs. Army, but
Bob Toledo 2-0 vs. line TY, 4-1 last 5 on board. Tech edge-Tulane,
based on recent trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at OREGON STATE (Thursday, September
25)...Trojans have had their problems this decade at Corvallis, losing
2 of 3 trips SU and failing to cover any of those, including pointpsread
losses by powerful ’04 & ’06 teams (losing SU in ’06 by 33-31 count).
Riley 7-2 vs. line last 9 at home, though Beavs just 1-3 as home dog
since ’05 (win coming vs. SC in ’06). Tech edge-slight to OSU,
based on series home trends.
UCONN at LOUISVILLE (Friday, September 26)...Edsall not quite
as tough on road as at home in recent years (6-10 vs. line away, 14-
4 vs. spread at home since ’05). Tech edge-UL, based on UConn
home/road pattern.
NAVY at WAKE FOREST...Mids no covers first 2 away TY and now
just 2-5 vs. line last 7 as visitor. Grobe covered 5 of 7 as favorite LY
and also established home field edge at Winston-Salem (5-1 vs.
spread as host LY). Tech edge-slight to Wake, based on recent
trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at TEMPLE...Owlies now 15-9 last 24 on
board since mid ’06 for Al Golden. Owls 8-3 vs. line at Linc for Golden,
and Temple 2-1 in rare chalk role for Golden. Broncos only 4-9-1 vs.
line since LY. Tech edge-Temple, based on recent trends.
MARSHALL at WEST VIRGINIA...Herd 1-2 vs .line TY and now 5-
19-1 vs. line last 24 away from Huntington. WVU only 5-5-1 as DD
chalk at Morgantown the past two years and has dropped last 2 on
board TY.. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended Herd
road woes.
PITT at SYRACUSE...Robinson on 0-6 spread run since late LY
and just 4-15 last 19 vs. number. Robinson also no covers last 7 as
Carrier Dome dog. Tech edge-Pitt, based on Robinson negatives.
MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Home team has won and covered
last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Hoosiers 5-2 vs. line last 7 as Big Ten
host. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, absed on series home trends.
NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Underdog team has won SU last 3
meetings. Ferentz 4-11 as chalk since ’06, 9-18-1 vs. line last 28
overall on board. Tech edge-NU, based on series and team trends.
VIRGINIA at DUKE...Al Groh now 9-24 vs. line last 33 as visitor, 4-
13 last 17 as visiting dog Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Heels have covered 3 of
4 (2-2 SU) since Canes joined ACC in ’04. Canes only 2-5 vs. line at
home for Shannon LY and 12-25 vs. spread last 37 as host. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, based on team trends.
OLE MISS at FLORIDA...Rebs have covered 2 of first 3 for Houston
Nutt, and remember that Ole Miss still fared well as dog for Orgeron
(10-7 last 2 years; Rebs now 11-7 as dog since ’06). Urban Meyer has
covered last 7 reg.-season games, however, and is now 7-1 vs. line
at Swamp since LY. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on team
trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU...LSU has really brutalized MSU over
the years, winning last 8 SU by hefty DD margins, covering 10 of last
11 and 14 of last 16 in series. Les Miles, however, only 2-8-1 vs. line
last 10 reg.-season games, and Sly Croom 7-3-1 vs. number last 10
as visitor. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on series trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Road team has
covered last 7 meetings! EMU only 4-11 vs. line last 15 on board, and
Eagles just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Rynearson Stadium. Tech edge-
NIU, based on series and team trends.
BUFFALO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN..Chips are 10-2-2 vs. line at
Mt. Pleasant since ’05, although they surprisingly haven’t covered 5
of last 6 reg.-season games. Turner Gill 5-1 vs. line last 6 as dog.
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at AKRON...Cincy 17-8-1 vs. line since ’06, and Brian
Kelly teams 26-9-3 vs. line since ’05. Kelly teams also 15-6 vs. line
as chalk that span. Zips tough as Rubber Bowl dog, however,
covering all 4 chances in role since ’05. Tech edge-slight to Cincy,
based on extended team trends.
HOUSTON at EAST CAROLINA...ECU won a wild one at UH LY
and has covered 5 of 6 meetings since ’00. Skip 7-3 as home chalk
since arriving at ECU in ’05. Cougs no covers last 8 on board since
late LY. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
PURDUE at NOTRE DAME...Note that road team has covered last
4 meetings. Weis only 10-20-1 vs. line last 31 on board overall.
Tiller’s recent visitor mark (7-3-1 vs. line since ’06) a lot better than his
home mark lately. Tech edge-Purdue, based on team trends.
MINNESOTA at OHIO STATE...Tressel has dominated Gophers
and has covered 4 of last 5 in series. Buckeyes 13-8 as DD home
chalk since ’05. Tech edge-Ohio State, based on team and
extended series trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at NEBRASKA...Beamer 15-3 vs. line last 18 as
true visitor, and 10-2 as dog since 2001. Tech edge-Beamer, based
on extended trends.
STANFORD at WASHINGTON...Ugh! Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last
4 meetings. Harbaugh only 5-8 as dog as Tree HC. Ty only 3-6 as
chalk at U-Dub and 8-13 vs. spread as host since taking over in ’05
(1-5 as home chalk that span). Tech edge-slight to Tree, based on
series and team trends.
COLORADO STATE at CAL...Rams actually covered meeting at
Fort Collins LY, and were 3-2 for Lubick as visiting dog LY. Tedford
only 3-13-1 vs. line as DD chalk since ’05. Tech edge-slight to CSU,
based on extended Cal DD chalk woes.
ALABAMA at GEORGIA...Georgia has covered 4 of last 5 between
the hedges since mid ’07 and is 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Tech
edge-slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at AUBURN...Fulmer 5-4-1 as dog since ’06 and 13-
7-1 as dog since ’03. Tuberville only 6-13 vs. line last 19 as chalk, 4-
8 vs. spread last 12 at Jordan-Hare. Tech edge-slight to UT, based
on team trends.
WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN...Badgers now 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in
series. Badgers 9-5 vs. line at Camp Randall under Bielema. Tech
edge-Wisconsin, based on series and recent team trends.
MARYLANDat CLEMSON...Road team has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6
in series, but Ralph only 4-8 vs. line as visitor since ’06. Tommy
Bowden now on 5-game pointspread slide since late LY. Terps 6-2
vs. line last 8 in series. Tech edge-Maryland, based on series and
recent team trends.
FRESNO STATE at UCLA...If getting points, note Pat Hill 5-1 as
dog away from Fresno since LY. Throw out bad ’06 and Pat Hill 21-
10 last 31 as dog. Bruins 17-5 vs. line at Rose Bowl since late ’04 but
no covers last 2 in '08 Tech edge-Fresno, especially if dog, based
on team trends.
BOWLING GREEN at WYOMING...Wyo on 0-10-1 spread run last
11 on board and 2-15-1 last 18 against number. BGSU has covered
first two on road TY and is 6-1 vs. line last 7 reg.-season games since
late ’07. Pokes also 1-7-1 last 9 at Laramie. Tech edge-BGSU,
based on recent trends.
OREGON at WASHINGTON STATE...Ducks 4-6 as visiting chalk
since ’06, but Bellotti 35-20 vs. line last 55 on board. Cougs 0-3 vs.
line under Wulff. Tech edge-Oregon, based on recent trends.
TCU at OKLAHOMA...Frogs have been better at home vs. line than
on road in recent years, but note TCU 7-2 as DD dog since ’98 (1-0 since
’05, that being ’05 opener vs. Sooners). Stoops 10-3-1 as Norman chalk
since ’06. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on team trends.
UAB at SOUTH CAROLINA...UAB now 2-7 vs. spread last 9 on
board. Spurrier 15-8-1 vs. line last 24 on board, 9-4 last 13 as chalk.
Also 6-3 as DD chalk since taking over Gamecocks since ’05. Tech
edge-SC, based on UAB woes.
ARMY at TEXAS A&M...Army 7-18 vs. line last 25 on board, 4-9 last
13 as visitor. Stan Brock no covers last 4 away from home. Tech
edge-slight to A&M, based on recent Army woes.
KENT STATE at BALL STATE...Ball State 17-8 vs. line since ’06,
9-3 vs. line as chalk since ’06. Golden Flashes only 1-7 last 8 as dog
(0-2 TY) and 2-13 last 15 overall on board. Tech edge-Ball State,
based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at NC STATE...Bulls only 2-6 vs. line last 8 as
visiting chalk. Not much home edge lately for Wolfpack, however, just
2-4 vs. line at Raleigh for O’Brien LY, and a solid 33% previously as
host (4-8 since ’06, 6-12 since ’05). Tech edge-slight to USF, based
on NCS negatives.
COLORADO vs. FLORIDA STATE (at Jacksonville)...Hawkins
only 5-10-1 as “short” since taking over Buffs in ’06. Tech edgeslight
to FSU, based on extended CU dog marks.
UCF at UTEP...If UCF a dog note 1-9 mark vs. line as visiting dog
since ’03. UTEP no covers first 2 TY (both as dog) but if Miners a dog,
note Price 13-7-1 last 21 as short. Tech edge-UTEP, based on team
trends.
ILLINOIS at PENN STATE...Zook has covered the last 2 vs.
Shades and beat him SU at Champaign-Urbana LY. Shades 11-6 as
home chalk since ’05, however. Zook 4-1 vs. line as true visitor LY
and 6-2 as DD dog since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Zook, based on
team trends.
NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Road team had covered
4 straight in series until Lobos won and covered at Albuquerque LY.
Rocky was 0-2 as road chalk LY, and NMSU 6-3-1 vs. line last 10 at
home. Tech edge-NMSU, based on team trends. .
IDAHO at SAN DIEGO STATE...Vandals 0-5 last 5, 1-10 last 11 on
board since early ’07. Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on team
trends.
NEVADA at UNLV...Fremont Cannon! Home team has covered 5
of last 6 in series, although Wolf Pack rolled 31-3 in last trip to Vegas
in ’06, and Pack has won and covered last 3 meetings. Tech edgeslight
to Nevada, based on recent series trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at HAWAII...Leahey has won last 7 in series,
although Dick Tomey has covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 on board since
early ’07. UH just 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board. Tech edge-SJSU,
based on recent UH woes.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at KENTUCKY...UK just 2-6 vs. line last 8
on board since late LY, no covers last 3 as home chalk. Tech edgeslight
to WKU, based on recent trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at MEMPHIS...Underdog team has covered
last 3 meetings. If Memphis chalk note 3-7 spread mark at Liberty
Bowl in role since ’05, and Tommy West just 5-10 vs. line last 15 as
chalk overall. If ASU a dog, note 8-4 mark on road in role since ’06.
Tech edge-Arkansas State, if dog, based on team trends.
TROY at OKLAHOMA STATE...Revenge for OSU after getting
whipped at Troy 41-23 LY. Trojans, however, solid 8-3 as dog since
’06 and 12-4 vs. spread away from home that span. Cowboys have
covered their last 6 as DD chalk, however. Tech edge-slight to Troy,
based on extended trends.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TOLEDO...Amstutz just 2-6 as DD
chalk since ’06, but is 6-1 vs. line hosting non-conference opposition
since taking over in ’01. Tech edge-slight to Toledo, based on team
trends.
LOUISIANA at KANSAS STATE...Cajuns now 5-2 last 7 as DD road
dog after combative cover at Illinois. KSU now 1-5 vs. line last 6 on
board (only cover against North Texas), although Ron Prince is 7-1 vs.
line as home chalk since ’06 (4-0 laying DDs since ’06 at home). Tech
edge-slight to KSU, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at RICE...UNT 2-17 vs. line last 19 away from Denton
vs non-Belt foes. Tech edge-Rice, based on UNT negatives
NFL
DENVER at KANSAS CITY...Broncos dominated LY, winning and
covering both by hefty 68-18 combined score. Although Broncos had
failed to win previous 4 or cover previous 3 at Arrowhead. “Overs” 10-
3 last 13 meetings. Chiefs just 1-7-1 vs. line themselves their last 9
at Arrowhead. Tech edge-Broncos and “over,” based on recent
team and series “totals” trends.
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI...Bengals “under” 7-2 last 9 on
board, Brownies “under” last 9 on board since late LY. Tech edge-
“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE...Texans have done well in this
series, covering 9 of 12 all-time vs. Jags (3-1 vs. line the last 2 years,
loss came at Alltel LY). Texans “over” 15-7-1 previous 23. Tech
edge-“Over” and Texans, based on series and “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at NY JETS...Mangini 2-6-1 vs. line as host since LY.
Jets “under” 6 straight since late ’07, though Cards “over” 12-7 for
Whisenhunt (since ’07) and “over” 32-18-1 last 51 since late ’04. Tech
edge-slight to Cards, based on recent Jets home woes.
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS...Saints “over” 16-6 last 22
on board. NO also just 4-11 vs. line as Superdome chalk since ’06 (1-
0 TY). Tech edge-“Over” and 49ers, based on “totals” and team
trends.
ATLANTA at CAROLINA...”Unders” 11-4-1 last 15 in series. Falcs
“under” 13-4 away since ’06, and Panthers “under” 11-5-1 at Charlotte
since ‘06. Road team has won and covered last 5 meetings. Tech
edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
MINNESOTA at TENNESSEE...Vikes “under” 7-3 last 10 away.
Titans have turned into an “under” team after being an “over” in ’06,
now “under” 13-7 since ’07. Tech edge-“Under,” based on
“totals”trends.
GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY...Gruden now 6-2 vs. line as home
chalk since LY, but Pack 10-2-1 vs. line last 13 away since late ’06 (1-
0 TY). Pack also “over” 8-1 away since LY and “over” 16-4 since ’07.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on Pack “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at ST. LOUIS...Rams now 5-13 vs. line since ’07 (0-2
TY), 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at Edward Jones Dome. Rams “over” 11-
5-1 at home since ’06 (1-0 TY), 17-8-1 “over” last 26 as host. Tech
edge-Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND...All Bolts lately in this spirited rivalry, as
Chargers have won last 9 meetings SU and stand 9-1 vs. line last 10
meetings. 5 of last 6 meetings “under” as well, but Chargers “over”
14-5 away since ‘06. Bolts have also covered last 6 at Oakland.
Raiders poor 11-29-1 vs. line at home since ’03. Tech edge-
Chargers and slight to “over,” based on team and Bolt “totals”
trends.
WASHINGTON at DALLAS...Skins getting upper hand lately in
series, covering both meetings LY and 5 of last 6. Tech edge-slight
to Redskins, based on recent series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO...Birds now 10-2 vs. line last 12 as
visitor, also “over” 11-6 last 17 as visitor. Bears “over” 15-4 last 19 at
Soldier Field. Tech edge-“Over” and Eagles, based on “totals”
and team trends.
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (Monday, September 29)...Series
“over” last 3, and Ravens have covered 5 of last 6 meetings, though
they were routed 38-7 at Heinz Field LY. Tomlin, however, is 7-3
vs. line at home since LY, and Steel 11-6 as home chalk since ’06.
Steel also “over” 42-14-1 at Heinz Field since late ’01. Tech edge-
“Over” and slight to Steel, based on “totals” and team trends
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Texas, AUBURN
over Tennessee@, BALL STATE over Kent State, CINCINNATI over
Akron, EAST CAROLINA over Houston, MICHIGAN over Wisconsin,
NICHIGAN STATE over Indiana, OHIO STATE over minnesota,
OREGON over Washington State, SOUTH FLORIDA over NC State@,
TCU over Oklahoma@, VIRGINIA TECH over Nebraska@.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-ILLINOIS over Penn State@,
MICHIGAN STATE* over Indiana, NC STATE over South Florida@,
UTEP* over Ucf, UCLA* over Fresno State, VIRGINIA TECH over
Nebraska@.
RIVALRY DOGS-NEW MEXICO STATE over New Mexico, and
dog in NEVADA-UNLV game.
POWER UNDERDOGS-OREGON STATE over Southern Cal
(Thursday, September 25), ALABAMA over Georgia, ILLINOIS over
Penn State@, MICHIGAN over Wisconsin, NAVY over Wake Forest,
PURDUE* over Notre Dame, TENNESSEE over Auburn@, TCU over
Oklahoma@, VIRGINIA TECH over Nebraska@, and dog in FRESNO
STATE-UCLA game.
PAINFUL MEMORY-No plays this week.
POWER REVENGE-PENN STATE over Illinois@.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-OREGON STATE oer Southern Cal
(Thursday, September 25), DUKE over Virginia@, NEBRASKA over
Virginia Tech@, OKLAHOMA over Tcu@, OKLAHOMA ST. over Troy.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over San Diego State.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-OREGON STATE over
Southern Cal (Thursday, September 25), NORTH TEXAS over Rice,
NAVYover Wake Forest, STANFORD over Washington; off
pointspread loss-COLORADO STATE over Cal.
"NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-GREEN BAY over Tampa Bay,
PHILADELPHIA* over Chicago.
FAMILIARITY-KANSAS CITy over Denver, CINCINNATI# over
Cleveland, OAKLAND over San Diego.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK- KANSAS CITY over Denver, St.
LOUIS over Buffalo.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-CAROLINA over Atlanta.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems.
<!-- / message -->
Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK
PRO FOOTBALL
Monday, September 29th
5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh
is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.
SUNDAY
4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off
a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.
3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when
taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5
ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing.
No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off
an away game. Take Tex.
NY JETS over Arizona by 6
Flyboys return to the Apple off Monday night’s skirmish in San Diego while the
Cardinals look to regroup after Sunday’s hard-fought, fi rst loss of the season
at Washington. It won’t be easy considering Zona’s 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS mark
against the AFC East. Couple that with the fact that Brett Favre is 8-1 as a nondivision
favorite after Monday nights and 3-1 SU and ATS in his career against
the Cardinals. We won’t fade those kind of numbers
NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco by 3
One team’s got it and the other doesn’t. Defense, that is. And if you’re Frisco
head coach Mike Nolan you’re banking heavily on it as the Saints have managed
to post 30 or more points in each if its last four meetings in this series (all wins).
Our friendly database tells us that favorites or dogs of 1 or less points off backto-
back losses are 0-7-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when taking on a foe
off back-to-back wins. The loss of TE Jeremy Shockey certainly doesn’t help
matters. The bottom line is it’s hard to pass on a touchdown dog with 100 yards
the better defense. We won’t.
CAROLINA over Atlanta by 3
Panthers let us down in a major way last week when, after jumping out to a
10-0 lead at Minnesota, they then no-showed the fi nal 40 minutes of the game.
With that we have no choice but to fade them in their non-desirable role as
chalk. That’s confi rmed by John Fox’s 3-9 ATS record as a division home favorite,
including 1-5 when laying more than 6 points. In somewhat of a surprise, the
rebuilding Falcons will look to improve to 3-1 (or better) through the fi rst four
games of the season for the 4th time in the last fi ve years with a win here today.
Averaging 55 yards more than they allow per game against an opponent that
surrenders 23 YPG more than it gains, another 3-1 start is a distinct possibility.
You know what to do.
TENNESSEE over Minnesota by 1
From a technical standpoint this game is a tough call. That’s because 3-0 teams
at home, favored by less than 7 points, are an eye-popping 12-1 ATS in Game
Four. On the fl ip side, dogs with a 1-2 record off a win are 14-1-2 ATS when
facing a foe off back-to-back wins. Whew! What to do? The feeling here is the
1-2 dog is a lot hungrier than the 3-0 favorite. The decision-maker comes from
the fact that Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3
or more points off a win against an opponent off a win of less than 10 points.
Take three or leave it.
TAMPA BAY over Green Bay by 1
Battle of the Bays fi nds Tampa back home off an exhilarating 3-point OT win
over Chicago while Green Bay takes to the road off Monday night’s SU and ATS
loss to the Cowboys. That loss snapped a 6-0 ATS win skein in September for the
Pack. Given the Packers’ 5-0 ATS log as dogs of 3 or more points against the NFC
South, we’ll opt for the points. If the line drops below 3, forget it.
Buffalo over ST. LOUIS by 10
Not much of a case to be made for the hapless Rams here. Not when 0-3 SU and
ATS home teams are 9-18-1 ATS, including 0-5 when hosting an undefeated foe.
Buffalo has been one of the surprise teams in 2008, for sure. It’s hard laying this
many points with them, though, as they are just 9-17-2 ATS as road favorites,
including 2-9-2 against an opponent off back-to-back losses. Then again, with
St. Louis’ 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS against winning teams under Scott Linehan
there is no way we’d entertain wasting our hard-earned money on a team that
can’t compete.
San Diego over OAKLAND by 10
With rumors circulating hot and heavy about the impending fi ring of Raider
coach Lane Kiffi n, one has to wonder about the mental approach of the Blackand-
Silver as they enter this game. And that’s a shame as this year’s team
appears much more competitive than editions past. Nonetheless, the Chargers
have owned this series (9-1 ATS the last 10 games, including 6-0 here) and
they own a gaudy 11-1 ATS mark in September on the road against avenging
opposition. The Raiders’ 2-14 ATS record at home in division games slants this
game heavily in the visitor’s favor.
DALLAS over Washington by 7
All aboard. It’s time for everyone jumping on the Cowboy bandwagon to step
up and be counted. To that we refer to Lee Corso’s favorite phrase, “Not so fast,
my friend!” Sure, they’re another 3-0 team at home in Game Four taking on a
winning opponent (these teams are 20-8 ATS). And, yes, Wade Phillips is 6-1 ATS
in games against opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. But the fact of
the matter is the Redskins are a well-schooled unit (one turnover this season)
that has given Dallas fi ts the last three seasons (4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS). They are
also 14-6-1 ATS as road dogs against division foes off a win, including 9-3 taking
6 or more points. Too many points to pass here. No leaping allowed.
Philadelphia over CHICAGO by 6
Eagles continue to soar behind a healthy Donovan McNabb while the Bears
continue to search for a quarterback they can rely upon. Granted, Kyle Orton
has given Chicago a shot in the arm early on but the fact of the matter is there is
a huge edge in Philly’s favor in this QB matchup. Ditto on the coaching sidelines
where Andy Reid reigns superior over Lovie Smith. That’s confi rmed by Reid’s
25-11 ATS road mark against an opponent off a loss, including 11-2 when he
has road rage (revenge). Conversely, Smith is just 9-14 ATS against non-division
opposition seeking revenge, including 0-6 during the fi rst six games of the
season. Andy looks just dandy here tonight.
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PRO FOOTBALL
Monday, September 29th
5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh
is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.
SUNDAY
4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off
a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.
3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when
taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5
ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing.
No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off
an away game. Take Tex.
NY JETS over Arizona by 6
Flyboys return to the Apple off Monday night’s skirmish in San Diego while the
Cardinals look to regroup after Sunday’s hard-fought, fi rst loss of the season
at Washington. It won’t be easy considering Zona’s 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS mark
against the AFC East. Couple that with the fact that Brett Favre is 8-1 as a nondivision
favorite after Monday nights and 3-1 SU and ATS in his career against
the Cardinals. We won’t fade those kind of numbers
NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco by 3
One team’s got it and the other doesn’t. Defense, that is. And if you’re Frisco
head coach Mike Nolan you’re banking heavily on it as the Saints have managed
to post 30 or more points in each if its last four meetings in this series (all wins).
Our friendly database tells us that favorites or dogs of 1 or less points off backto-
back losses are 0-7-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when taking on a foe
off back-to-back wins. The loss of TE Jeremy Shockey certainly doesn’t help
matters. The bottom line is it’s hard to pass on a touchdown dog with 100 yards
the better defense. We won’t.
CAROLINA over Atlanta by 3
Panthers let us down in a major way last week when, after jumping out to a
10-0 lead at Minnesota, they then no-showed the fi nal 40 minutes of the game.
With that we have no choice but to fade them in their non-desirable role as
chalk. That’s confi rmed by John Fox’s 3-9 ATS record as a division home favorite,
including 1-5 when laying more than 6 points. In somewhat of a surprise, the
rebuilding Falcons will look to improve to 3-1 (or better) through the fi rst four
games of the season for the 4th time in the last fi ve years with a win here today.
Averaging 55 yards more than they allow per game against an opponent that
surrenders 23 YPG more than it gains, another 3-1 start is a distinct possibility.
You know what to do.
TENNESSEE over Minnesota by 1
From a technical standpoint this game is a tough call. That’s because 3-0 teams
at home, favored by less than 7 points, are an eye-popping 12-1 ATS in Game
Four. On the fl ip side, dogs with a 1-2 record off a win are 14-1-2 ATS when
facing a foe off back-to-back wins. Whew! What to do? The feeling here is the
1-2 dog is a lot hungrier than the 3-0 favorite. The decision-maker comes from
the fact that Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3
or more points off a win against an opponent off a win of less than 10 points.
Take three or leave it.
TAMPA BAY over Green Bay by 1
Battle of the Bays fi nds Tampa back home off an exhilarating 3-point OT win
over Chicago while Green Bay takes to the road off Monday night’s SU and ATS
loss to the Cowboys. That loss snapped a 6-0 ATS win skein in September for the
Pack. Given the Packers’ 5-0 ATS log as dogs of 3 or more points against the NFC
South, we’ll opt for the points. If the line drops below 3, forget it.
Buffalo over ST. LOUIS by 10
Not much of a case to be made for the hapless Rams here. Not when 0-3 SU and
ATS home teams are 9-18-1 ATS, including 0-5 when hosting an undefeated foe.
Buffalo has been one of the surprise teams in 2008, for sure. It’s hard laying this
many points with them, though, as they are just 9-17-2 ATS as road favorites,
including 2-9-2 against an opponent off back-to-back losses. Then again, with
St. Louis’ 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS against winning teams under Scott Linehan
there is no way we’d entertain wasting our hard-earned money on a team that
can’t compete.
San Diego over OAKLAND by 10
With rumors circulating hot and heavy about the impending fi ring of Raider
coach Lane Kiffi n, one has to wonder about the mental approach of the Blackand-
Silver as they enter this game. And that’s a shame as this year’s team
appears much more competitive than editions past. Nonetheless, the Chargers
have owned this series (9-1 ATS the last 10 games, including 6-0 here) and
they own a gaudy 11-1 ATS mark in September on the road against avenging
opposition. The Raiders’ 2-14 ATS record at home in division games slants this
game heavily in the visitor’s favor.
DALLAS over Washington by 7
All aboard. It’s time for everyone jumping on the Cowboy bandwagon to step
up and be counted. To that we refer to Lee Corso’s favorite phrase, “Not so fast,
my friend!” Sure, they’re another 3-0 team at home in Game Four taking on a
winning opponent (these teams are 20-8 ATS). And, yes, Wade Phillips is 6-1 ATS
in games against opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. But the fact of
the matter is the Redskins are a well-schooled unit (one turnover this season)
that has given Dallas fi ts the last three seasons (4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS). They are
also 14-6-1 ATS as road dogs against division foes off a win, including 9-3 taking
6 or more points. Too many points to pass here. No leaping allowed.
Philadelphia over CHICAGO by 6
Eagles continue to soar behind a healthy Donovan McNabb while the Bears
continue to search for a quarterback they can rely upon. Granted, Kyle Orton
has given Chicago a shot in the arm early on but the fact of the matter is there is
a huge edge in Philly’s favor in this QB matchup. Ditto on the coaching sidelines
where Andy Reid reigns superior over Lovie Smith. That’s confi rmed by Reid’s
25-11 ATS road mark against an opponent off a loss, including 11-2 when he
has road rage (revenge). Conversely, Smith is just 9-14 ATS against non-division
opposition seeking revenge, including 0-6 during the fi rst six games of the
season. Andy looks just dandy here tonight.
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Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK
Volume 23, Issue 6 September 25-29, 2008
COLLEGE
5* BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Tcu by 28
Stoops’ recall is just fi ne, thanks, and when he sees the Horned Frogs
take the fi eld at Norman on Saturday he’ll be thinking of one thing only:
opening day, 2005, when 25-point OU was suffocated in a 17-10 TCU win.
The coach that orchestrated that shocker, Gary Patterson, is still wearing
purple and his 4-0 Frogs own a punishing defense that has limited foes
to just 7.8 PPG in 2008. Well, say goodbye to that stat right now. When
playing at home with revenge, Stoopsie is a jaw-dropping 7-0 SU and 6-1
ATS – with the average win being 46-9. And we’re here to tell you that
this bunch of Sooners is something special. Led by phenomenal QB Sam
Bradford, the OU offense is cranking out 54.7 PPG, slightly more than the
52.6 PPG they averaged at home last. Oklahoma also owns a huge edge
in depth, a major advantage late in any game. We’re aware that TCU has
yet to trail in a game this season and has gone 10-4 ATS versus the Big
12 but there’ll be none of that ‘lizard sneakin’ up on somebody’ business
this time... the best of this week’s SMART BOX says so. Stoops has his
team nicely positioned at this stage of the season for a deep run at the
BCS Championship game and he won’t show mercy if the Sooners blow it
open. THIS JUST IN: TCU 4-21-1 ATS when the Froggies lose SU as a road
dog against an avenging opponent (1-15-1 vs. winning foe). Ouch!
4* BEST BET
PENN ST over Illinois by 27
Okay, so the Nittany Lions haven’t taken on world-class competition so
far in 2008 – they still look like the team to beat in this season’s Big 10
race. The Nits have taken to Joe Pa’s new spread offense, averaging an
Oklahoma-like 539 YPG (273 rushing / 266 passing). Last year’s 27-20 win
by Illinois was head coach Ron Zook’s fi rst over Paterno and Joe Shades
is a good bet to return the favor: he’s 17-5 ATS when winning SU as a
favorite with revenge. Zook’s numbers don’t look nearly so good. He’s a
weak 1-6 ATS on the road versus revenge (0-3 as a dog with losses of 17,
23 and 33 points) and has not cashed a single ticket against an avenging
conference foe. With the 81-year old Paterno noticeably bothered by a
broken leg suffered last season, this is Penn State’s best opportunity to
reach the BCS title game before the iconic Joe Pa resigns. Regardless, the
Lions should avenge last year’s SU road favorite loss at Champaign by
squeezing the Juice out of the Illini.
3* BEST BET
Alabama over GEORGIA by 3
Alabama coach Nick Saban has the Tide rolling full speed ahead right
now, exceeding just about everyone’s expectations (Bama ranked #24
in preseason) while Georgia looks as talented, strong and deep as any
program in the country. Saban’s bunch made this one a real dogfi ght last
year, losing 26-23 at Tuscaloosa, and they’ve snarled their way to a 9-0-1
mark as dogs of 6 > points off BB wins. Saban also has a 10-0-1 ATS card
up his sleeve when Bama dresses up as a conference dog with revenge off
a conference win taking on a foe off a SU win. Georgia’s Mark Richt is just
1-5 ATS between the hedges off consecutive away games and 3-7 ATS at
home before a revenger (UGA has Tennessee next). Alabama has taken
the bullet in three straight meetings but appears to be a young team on
the rise under Saban (only 9 seniors on roster), capable of matching up
physically with Georgia’s superb athletes. The clincher? Little Nicky is the
answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, an offer we can never
refuse. Put a leash on them dawgs… the tide’s coming in.
TULANE over Smu by 16
The critics said it would take awhile for June Jones’ offense to catch on at
SMU and they were right. Still, four games into the season, the Mustangs are
averaging a semi-respectable 22 PPG. Too bad the defense never gets off the
bus. They’ve been stampeded for 45.8 PPG and at this rate, it won’t be long
before Pony fans are threatening the defensive coaches with waterboarding.
Jones (now known as ‘June Rodriguez’ in Honolulu) may start feeling some
heat himself if he can’t kick-start an offense that’s scored only ONE TD in each
of SMU’s previous two games. Unlike the 91-14 point defi cit run up by the
Mustangs in losses to Texas Tech and TCU, Tulane was much more competitive
with the big boys, falling to Alabama and East Carolina by just a 48-30 margin.
SMU has been an easy mark in this rivalry lately, failing to cover in six of the last
seven get-togethers. That smells like money when we consider Tulane’s robust
20-5 ATS record when they win SU as a favorite off a prior SUATS win (Wave
already 3-0 ATS in ’08). The scent starts to fade, however, when we realize the
Greenies haven’t swept over an opponent by this big a margin since 2005. With
Bob Toledo’s team thrust into such an unfamiliar role, we may reluctantly pass
this one by.
Usc over OREGON ST by 17
Even though the Beavers shook off a disappointing 0-2 start by blasting Hawaii
45-7 two weeks ago, we’re still not sure how good they are. On the other hand,
talk to anyone who saw USC’s sacrifi cial slaughter of Ohio State and they’re
probably convinced that Pete Carroll has unleashed an army of maroon-andgold
cyborgs that simply cannot be stopped (hmmm… wonder what the line
would be on a neutral fi eld game between USC and the Detroit Lions?). While
a little genetic tampering wouldn’t surprise us, the Trojans run headlong into
some very bad ATS numbers in today’s situation: 1-5 as DD PAC 10 road chalk,
1-3 as weekday favorites of 7 > pts and 4-10 away versus conference foes with
revenge. Not so for the guys with the overbite. OSU has covered three straight
in the series on this fi eld, cashed in 9 of its last 12 tries as DD home dogs and
grabbed the dough 11 out of 15 times when playing the dog in the second
of back-to-back homers. If you still believe Southern Cal will roll through
Corvallis like Patton’s Third Army, a word of caution: 2-0 SUATS RF’s are Major
Moneyburners in Game Three. Both teams have had an extra week to tighten
up the armor but our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) fi nds the Beavers ‘Back On
Track’ in USC’s 2008 conference opener.
Friday, September 26th
LOUISVILLE over UConn by 6
Both of these Big Easters were showcased against Big 12 foes last week in
primetime and both emerged with SU wins, just what was needed from a
conference that’s endured some withering criticism so far in 2008. For the
home-lovin’ Cardinals, this game marks the fi rst of four league paybacks from
last year. However, there are a few more ‘fours’ that need to be considered
here: conference home favorites in Game Four of a season-opening four-game
homestand are a lukewarm 7-16-1 ATS. Duly noted but we’ll also point out that
the invading Huskies don’t really live up to their name on the conference road,
mushing along to a feeble 2-9 ATS mark when getting points. With the series
visitor currently 0-3 ATS, it’s possible these sled dogs could lose their way on a
chilly Kentucky night.
Saturday, September 27th
WAKE FOREST over Navy by 13
And then there was one. With household names like Virginia Tech, Florida State,
Miami Fla and Clemson grabbing the headlines, the notion that Wake Forest
would one day – any day – fi nd themselves to be the ACC’s fl agship program
seemed about as impossible as something like Elvis’ daughter marrying Michael
Jackson (wait… that did happen, didn’t it?). After confi dently humiliating
Florida State 12-3 on national TV to remain undefeated, Jim Grobe’s Deacons
can no longer be ignored as major players in the ACC. Wake does owe a debt
of gratitude to the schedule maker after being set up with a very beatable foe
in Navy on Saturday, then given a timely week off to prep for Clemson. The
Middies squared their season at 2-2 after becoming the latest bully to beat up
on Rutgers but still carry the scars of last year’s 20-point thrashing by Wake
at Annapolis. The sailors are 5-1 ATS as dogs of 14 > points, a stat that loses
some signifi cance when we note Navy’s 2-7 mark as dogs lately against the
ACC. However, the Demon Deacons own an embarrassing 0-6 spread record as
non-conference home chalk at this price. After trading bruises with the physical
Seminoles, Riley Skinner and company may not have enough left in the tank for
a margin call over the hard-trying Midshipmen.
TEMPLE over W Michigan by 1
We knew the Owls would have trouble getting up for Penn State last week
following their devastating last-second defeat by Buffalo on a Hail Mary TD
pass. Temple’s luck went from bad to worse when the Nittany Lions knocked
QB Adam DiMichele out of the game on the fi fth play from scrimmage but the
Owl defense stepped up to hold PSU scoreless in the fi rst quarter. Then the roof
collapsed and Temple was buried beneath 31 second-quarter points en route
to a 45-3 embarrassment. Western Michigan rides into Philly on a 3-game win
streak and will get to line up against its fi fth consecutive foe that suffered a
losing season in ’07. However, we’re not that impressed by the Broncos’ list of
victims – Northern Illinois, Idaho and Tennessee Tech – and the trip to hostile
Lincoln Financial Field may be tougher than expected. The barn-dwellers are 5-
1 ATS playing with revenge after tangling with Penn State and we actually like
homecoming home dogs playing with triple revenge. Although DiMichele will
miss the game (and likely be out for a considerable length of time), replacement
Chester Stewart won’t be running for his life all afternoon like he was against
the fearsome Nittany Lion pass rush. Owls fi ght their way back into the MAC
race with the upset here.
WEST VIRGINIA over Marshall by 15
Mountaineer fans are silently praying they haven’t jumped the gun in awarding
a contract extension to coach Bill Stewart… especially after West Virginia’s 17-14
overtime loss at Colorado dropped the Mounties to 1-2 for the fi rst time since
2003. We’ve already warned you against putting your faith in a home favorite
recovering from an OT loss; that’s a shame because the Hillbillies are totin’
some good numbers to this fracas: West Virginia is 5-2 ATS off consecutive SU
road losses and 5-2 ATS at Morgantown taking on C-USA opponents. The Herd
may be 3-1 SU in ’08 but they’re 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) and have visited the shed
in their last two hoedowns with WVU, getting whacked by 25 and 32 points.
Despite their early woes, the Mountaineers represent a big step up in class for
Marshall, who will slide to 0-4-1 ATS versus the Big East if they fail against the
number here. Time for QB Pat White to step up and take control of his team.
Pittsburgh over SYRACUSE by 13
Here’s a real shocker: both coaches enter this contest off a SU win, although
Pittsburgh’s Dave Wannstedt earned his against a tough Iowa team while soonto-
be-cast-into-the-lake-of-fi re Greg Robinson watched his ‘Cuse batter 1-AA
cream puff Northeastern (0-3 this year and 3-8 in ’07). Even more unbelievable is
the Stunning Stat of the Week: the Orange are 25-8 SUATS in the dome off a SU
win, including a 3-1 ATS mark under the doomed Robinson. The Panthers are an
awful 1-5 ATS of late in Big East openers but we can’t get too excited because
Syracuse resides at the bottom of an 0-7 hole they’ve dug as home underdogs.
We also can’t seriously consider investing in two bad coaches who’ve enjoyed
about as much success lately as our country’s fi nancial institutions. No thanks.
Michigan St over INDIANA by 7
Ball State’s 42-20 pummeling of the Hoosiers last week lets us know the IU
program still has a ways to go under coach Bill Lynch. Indiana’s defense failed
to show up, allowing the Gonads to pile up 463 total yards in a disappointing
home favorite loss. Even more troubling is the 224 rushing yards the Hoosiers
yielded, a number that should have Michigan State RB Javon Ringer licking
his chops. After ripping through Notre Dame for 201 rushing yards, Ringer
increased his season total to 699 yards (2nd in the nation) and chalked up his
11th TD, the most in the country. The ATS archives also point us in Sparty’s
direction: MSU has cashed in 5 of the last 6 series meetings including a 4-1
ATS mark at Bloomington. The Hoosiers sweeten the deal by offering up a
miserable 10-24 ATS record at home when tackling a foe off back-to-back wins.
All these glowing numbers can’t disguise the fact that today’s game marks the
fi rst of FIVE straight Big 10 revengers for the Spartans and after being spoiled
by a trio of games in friendly East Lansing, MSU may be a tad overpriced as road
chalk in its conference opener. Pass.
IOWA over Northwestern by 8
Unbeaten Northwestern will get its fi rst major test of the young season in
Iowa City when they tackle an angry bunch of Hawkeyes who easily could have
beaten Pittsburgh last week but stumbled to a 21-20 loss instead. Iowa coach
Kirk Ferentz drew some criticism when he chose to go with QB Jake Christensen
over Ricky Stanzi for the entire second half but the truth is the loss was a total
team effort. The Hawkeyes outgained Pitt 361-259 but converted just 4-of-17
third-down opportunities, suffered six sacks and missed a critical 35-yard fi eld
goal. Expect the Iowa defense to rise to the occasion while Ferentz sorts out
his QB dilemma – the Hawkeye stop unit had allowed ZERO touchdowns in
three games before Pittsburgh crossed the goal line three times. The Wildcats’
fast start has come against a trio of weaklings that own a 1-7 SU mark against
lined competition in ’08 but Northwestern’s usually porous defense has shown
some fi re, holding back-to-back opponents to single digits for the fi rst time
since 1995. Still, there’s no denying NU’s sorry 4-10 ATS log as an underdog off
consecutive wins while the hosts chip in with a 4-0 SUATS mark when playing off
a 1-point loss. The bottom line is we’re just not that crazy about homecoming
favorites and the early line looks to be pretty sharp.
DUKE over Virginia by 3
No, it’s not a misprint… the Blue Devils are actually favored, quite a rare sight
for a team that’s taken an average of 16 PPG from the Cavaliers in ten straight
series doggie appearances. In fact, the Wahoos have been favored a whopping
19 times in a row over the Dukies, winning 17 of those confrontations SU. As
you might expect, Duke owns a horrid 1-10 ATS record as chalk and they don’t
know how to handle success, failing to cash in 15 of 16 tries after logging a SU
win. Fortunately for the Cavs, they’ve had an extra week off to initiate repairs to
a defense that was obliterated in a 45-10 loss at UConn (Huskies had a 506-219
advantage in total yards, outrushed UVA 382-31 and led 28-0 at halftime). They’ll
also be welcoming a walk-on at QB, a position devastated by injuries, defections
and suspensions. Despite these sobering stats, we still can’t open the wallet to lay
a touchdown with a team that’s been favored only TWICE in the last four years.
Our INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3) says it all: hold your nose and take the points.
MIAMI FLA over North Carolina by 4
Hurricanes showed some spunk in their loss to Florida two weeks ago, then
built on that success by roaring into College Station last Saturday and fl attening
Texas A&M 41-23. Suddenly, Miami is fl ashing a bit of the old UM swagger and
they’d love nothing more than to settle the score with former head coach Butch
Davis, who beat the Canes 33-27 as a 7-point home dog at Chapel Hill in ’07.
UNC looked to be in control of its ACC opener with Virginia Tech last week but
the Heels consistently shot themselves in both feet: critical turnovers combined
with 121 yards in penalties allowed the Hokies to rally from a 14-point defi cit
for the win. A major concern for this game is the health of Carolina QB T.J.
Yates, who left with an ankle against Va Tech and will not suit up here. That
adds up to a major advantage for the speedy Hurricane ‘D’ but until coach
Randy Shannon improves on his 2-6 SUATS mark in conference games (0-4 ATS
home), we simply can’t trust laying points with him. Miami’s 2-8 ATS record as a
revenger further clouds the picture and with the line currently hovering around
7 points, we think Baby Blue could actually steal the green here.
FLORIDA over Ole Miss by 20
The TV coverage of Florida’s 30-6 Saturday smackdown of Tennessee consisted
mainly of sideline shots of UT coach Phil Fulmer cursing, grimacing and gritting
his teeth in rage, images that will convince most bettors to expect a similarly
dominating effort from the Gators today. Not so fast, though… both teams
enter today’s tussle off ‘Inside-Out’ performances. Ole Miss buried Vandy by
183 yards in a 23-17 home loss to the Commodores while Fulmer’s Vols actually
won the stats against Florida. Even more disconcerting for reptile lovers is the
array of ATS stats that back the visiting Rebels. Ole Miss has cashed in four
straight meetings (3-0 L3 at The Swamp), owns a 4-0 ATS log off back-to-back
homers and rings the register when playing on the highway with SEC revenge
(7-2 ATS L9). Meanwhile, the Gators have dropped six straight to the number
after tangling with Tennessee and they’ve laid an 0-3 egg lately as conference
home chalk of 22 or more points. UF’s 3-0 start is somewhat misleading: the
Gators are averaging 37 PPG despite gaining only 332 YPG thanks to their
overwhelming 10-1 edge in the turnover department. Florida’s Urban Meyer
has faced Mississippi coach Houston Nutt only once, winning by 10 points in the
2006 SEC Championship game, and he’ll have to coax another such effort from
his Gators to have a realistic shot at covering today’s huge impost.
LSU over Mississippi St by 21
Even if LSU doesn’t get a chance to defend its national championship this
season, there’s no denying the toughness and tenacity of this superb Tiger team.
Trailing 14-3 at the half in Saturday night’s showdown with Auburn, the Bayou
Bengals scored a touchdown on their fi rst possession of the second stanza, then
silenced the sold-out crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium when Les Miles pulled an
onside kick from under his hat and regained possession of the football. Several
plays later, LSU scored to take the lead and even though Auburn rallied for
a late 21-20 edge, the better-conditioned, more physical Tiger offensive line
cleared the way for a game-winning – and spread covering – TD with just over
a minute remaining. Coupled with Mississippi State’s horrendous no-show at
Georgia Tech (lost 38-7), today’s matchup looks like the latest in a long line of
LSU blowouts of the Bulldogs. The Bengals have grabbed the cash in 10 of the
last 11 series meetings and Miles has punished MSU coach Sylvester Croom in
their three contests by an average of over 35 PPG. True, LSU is stuck between
an Auburn/Florida sandwich but the Tigers get a bye week after Missy State to
gear up for the Gators. We can trot out a few stats in favor of the Bulldogs – 8-2
ATS on the road with revenge, for example – but we know you’ll ignore them.
Our take is simple… we don’t see how LSU can recover from its emotionally
depleting win over Auburn to take the woeful Bulldogs seriously and as we’ve
said before, disinterested favorites are not to our liking. Pass.
No Illinois over E MICHIGAN by 6
Following a pair of season-opening losses to Minnesota and Western Michigan
that could easily have ended as wins, Northern Illinois fi nally broke into the
win column with a 48-3 destruction of Indiana State. We’d be more impressed
if new Huskies coach Jerry Kill had beaten up someone besides a Sycamore
scrap heap that went 0-11 last season but, in truth, NIU could be heading into
today’s revenger with the EMUs sporting a 3-0 record. The Eagles opened their
season with a 52-0 smashing of the same sad Sycamores but have since been
grounded by a trio of consecutive ugly losses where they were outscored 134-
51. This probably explains why Northern Illinois, a team that lost to Eastern
Michigan last year as double-digit home favorites, has been installed as 6-point
road chalk here. The Huskies can improve to 4-0 SU and ATS on this fi eld with a
win-and-cover today but from where we’re sitting, it looks too close to call.
C MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 3
More MAC madness as both teams try to shake off non-conference losses.
Gutty Buffalo continues to impress under coach Turner Gill, hanging tough
with mighty Missouri before falling 42-21 (easily covering as a 32-point dog).
The Chippewas played hard, too, losing a second straight last-minute decision
to Purdue but also cashing the ATS ticket. We know the linemaker is impressed
with Buffy: the Bulls are catching just 7 points at Mount Pleasant compared to
the 15 they took in a home game with CMU back in 2006. With few ATS stats to
recommend either side, let’s talk intangibles. We think Buffalo gained a world
of confi dence from their game with Mizzou while Central Michigan could still
be down after dropping an emotional double revenger to the Boilers. The Bulls
are 7-1 ATS after allowing 21 or more points and if the Chips let down just a
little, Buffy could easily roam into the Winner’s Circle.
Cincinnati over AKRON by 7
Bearcats showed no ill effects from their previous manhandling at Oklahoma
when they rebounded to spank Miami Ohio 45-20. Cincy QB Tony Pike replaced
injured starter Dustin Grutza and almost pitched a perfect game, completing
20 of 24 passes for 241 yards and 3 touchdowns. Though today’s matchup is a
home game for Akron, the Zips are probably wishing they could take on the
Bearcats somewhere in New York… both their wins this season came in the
Empire State against Syracuse and Army. Yes, the Rubber City boys did go fl at
in losses to Wisconsin and Ball State but with Cincinnati’s Pike making his fi rst
road start, Akron may be able to keep the Bearcat offense in check. The Zips’
22-3 win over the Cadets last week makes them a play in this sweet little angle:
home underdogs off a SU win as double-digit favorites are a solid 13-6 ATS
since 1990. We’ll cast a slim vote on Akron’s behalf here.
EAST CAROLINA over Houston by 7
You’d be hard-pressed to fi nd two more dejected squads squaring off on
today’s schedule than ECU and Houston. The BCS bowl glass slipper that the
Pirates were so proudly displaying after a 3-0 start was rudely shattered by an
overtime loss to hated NC State when ECU QB Patrick Pinkney set up State for
the winning score by losing a critical fumble. The Cougars, a bowl team for
the past three seasons, sank to a 1-3 start when new coach Kevin Sumlin rolled
the dice against Colorado State and came up empty. Instead of attempting a
32-yard FG that would have forced overtime with the Rams, Sumlin directed
QB Case Keenum to go for the win – and his pass was picked off in the CSU
end zone. Despite their disappointed demeanor, both teams bring some strong
ATS credentials to the party. East Carolina has covered fi ve of the last six in the
series. They also own a 5-0 ATS mark off consecutive road trips and stand 6-1
ATS as double-digit conference chalk. Houston counters with a 5-1-1 ATS mark
when playing with conference revenge, a scenario that was assured by last
year’s ugly 37-35 loss to ECU as a 14-point home favorite. Our aversion to OT
losers that show up as home favorites will keep us from sailing with the Pirates
here, especially since the ship appears to have sprung a few serious leaks.
NOTRE DAME over Purdue by 1
The Joe Tiller Farewell Tour is not exactly going as planned. Two weeks ago
the Boilermakers let Oregon climb back from a 20-3 defi cit to defeat Purdue
in overtime and last Saturday the Boilers fell behind Central Michigan 25-24
before Kory Sheets saved Tiller’s scalp with a 46-yard TD run in the game’s fi nal
minute. Even so, the 2-1 Boilermakers have allowed more yards than they’ve
gained this season and could be walking into a real hornet’s nest today. Just
the fact that Notre Dame is favored in this game is a moral victory of sorts for
the Irish – Charlie Weis and company were 22-point dogs in last year’s game
at Ross-Ade Stadium. Success is certainly measured in small steps these days at
South Bend... Notre Dame fans are ecstatic with their team’s current 3-game
home win streak! However, lurking beneath the shadow of Touchdown Jesus
is a blasphemous 5-11 ATS record by the Irish in their previous 16 home games.
Since we don’t have much faith in a Notre Dame offense that rushed for a
measly 16 yards against Michigan State, the points look like the play here.
OHIO ST over Minnesota by 20
Somebody get the smelling salts. We just thought we saw where Minnesota
was 4-0 and sitting atop the Big 10 with Northwestern and Penn State. Let’s
hope the Gophers have enjoyed their brief moment in the sun because they’re
about to take a class in Tressel-ology… where one important lesson teaches
“the best way to reverse a poor early-season start is to redirect the entire focus
of the team to their conference opener.” That’s evidenced by the Buckeyes’ 7-0
SU and ATS mark in conference lid-lifters against winning teams. Unfortunately
for Minnesota, the golden rodents happen to be fi rst into the breech – and
they’ve misfi red in their last three duels with Herbie, losing by 23, 44 and
14 points. Dust off the Gophers’ dismal 2-7 ATS mark as road dogs with Big
10 revenge and the Bucks start to look like the side. Don’t go emptying the
vault just yet, though: Ohio State is currently re-tooling its offense to feature
freshman phenom QB Terrell Pryor and aren’t fully in synch yet (Buckeyes were
outyarded in last week’s win/no cover against Troy). Could this fi nally be the
week we get to bear witness to the Second Coming of Nine-Toe Wells?
NEBRASKA over Va Tech by 8
Unbeaten Nebraska gets a cold shot of reality this weekend. After opening
against a trio of losers from 2007, Bo Pelini’s Huskers must trade consecutive
punches with ACC power Virginia Tech and Big 12 foe Missouri. First things
first: Big Red is solid gold when taking on a non-conference team at Lincoln
following a week of rest. The Huskers have shucked their way to an 8-0 SU
and 5-1 ATS record in this role, scoring 38 or more points in each game with
the average fi nal score being 49-14! Now comes the hard part. The Hokies
have compiled an outstanding 12-2-1 ATS success story as road underdogs,
including a near-perfect 8-0-1 ATS record if it’s a single-digit game – but this
week’s SMART BOX (page 2) tells us to look away from the visitors. Yeah, we
know it’s tough to fade Frank Beamer in this desirable dog role but Va Tech
was really outplayed in its slim, come-from-behind win over North Carolina.
Beamer’s decision to continue the two-headed QB system of Tyrod Taylor and
Sean Glennon is another cause for concern. A win-and-cover here will be a
huge boost for Pelini’s fl edgling program; we think he’ll get it.
WASHINGTON over Stanford by 6
We’d like about fi ve minutes alone with Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Holding a 16-10 lead and the ball at San Jose State’s 2-yard line with just 9
seconds remaining, Harbaugh could have shown a little class in this west coast
rivalry by ordering his QB to ‘put down the knee’ and let the clock run out.
Instead, he had the Cardinal offense run another play and they punched in a TD
that changed our 4* Late Phone Release on the Spartans from a comfortable
winner to an agonizing defeat (none of the Stanford alumni were complaining,
however). A bit farther north, Washington’s Ty Willingham has watched his
popularity sink to a Bush-like low after the Huskies were steamrolled 55-14
by Oklahoma two weeks ago, a loss that kept U-Dub winless in 2008. Despite
having a week off to recover from the Sooner spanking, Washington’s ATS
history warns us of another impending defeat. The Huskies have soiled the
bedsheets lately as home favorites, cashing just FOUR of their previous 23
opportunities (1-11 versus PAC 10 foes) and they’ve posted the big zero when
laying more than 3 points to a conference opponent, going 0-12 ATS. There’s
just one catch: our SAGACIOUS SQUARE (page 3) tells us that the Huskies are
the side – and like Merrill-Lynch in days gone by, when TSB speaks, we listen.
Take that, Harbaugh!
CALIFORNIA over Colorado St by 28
Here we go again. The not-so-Golden Bears have had an extra week to shake
the cobwebs from their rock-bottom road favorite failure at Maryland but
history tells us Cal is just 1-6 ATS recently as double-digit non-conference HF’s.
Big deal… the SMART BOX comes to Jeff Tedford’s rescue here, instructing all
wise followers to fade a Colorado State squad that’s just 1-5 ATS in its last six
tries as an underdog to the PAC 10. The Rams hung tough in last year’s battle
at Fort Collins, losing 34-28 as 14-point home pups but we feel that will just
make the Golden Boys considerably more focused today. CSU’s two wins after a
humbling 38-17 season-opening loss to rival Colorado have come against 1-AA
Sacramento State and struggling Houston. If Cal hadn’t been hoodwinked into
a high-noon start at Maryland that wreaked havoc on the Bear players’ internal
body clocks, Berkeley’s Best might be undefeated right now. We think they’ll
take out some major frustration on CSU here and send the Rams home minus a
few sets of horns. As California cookouts go, this looks to be a ROAST.
AUBURN over Tennessee by 4
At the end of last week’s monster brawl between LSU and Auburn, Tiger
head coach Tommy Tuberville wore his now-familiar ‘deer in the headlights’
expression, the look of a man desperately trying to change the outcome of an
event by continually replaying the closing moments in his mind. Tennessee’s
Phil Fulmer wore a similar expression at the end of Florida’s 30-6 romp over
his outclassed Vols, three punishing hours for UT that grew more frustrating
by the minute. Thus the task for both teams this Saturday will be to shake off
a crushing defeat and prepare for the next opponent in the SEC gauntlet. Our
crack crew of Southeastern Conference insiders (there really aren’t any… we
just wanted to say that) are unanimous in backing the Big Orange in today’s
slugfest. The Vols have covered four straight after wrestling the Gators, own a
solid 8-1 ATS mark when hitting the road after back-to-back games in Knoxville
and have barked their way to a 6-2-2 ATS record as conference dogs of 10
points or less. Tennessee’s 1-2 SU mark may look butt-ugly to their fans but
the Vols’ 3-0 ITS mark this season certainly gets our attention. The series host
may be 9-3 versus the number but we’re convinced Aubbie left an awful lot on
the fi eld after blowing a pair of leads in last Saturday’s heartbreaking failure
against LSU. Take the points with Rocky Top.
GAME OF THE WEEK
MICHIGAN over Wisconsin by 6
Okay, let’s have a show of hands. How many of you have already
sh**canned the Wolverines? We thought so. However, as handicappers,
we have to be a bit more forgiving in our evaluation of a team’s weekly
performance and right now we know that Joe Public thinks of Michigan
as little more than Big 10 road kill. Can you handle the truth? The Maizeand-
Blue has won 16 of the last 20 clashes with Wisky outright – and they
were chalk in all 20 games! We love dominating dogs that have been
favored forever in a series, especially when their foes own a 1-5 ATS mark
against revenging conference opponents. Both squads come in off a week
of rest and have performed well in that role (Wisconsin 5-1 ATS, Michigan
4-1-1 ATS). Rich Rodriguez has a solid defense at his disposal so if he can
just get the offense to cut down on stupid penalties and critical turnovers,
the homeboys can bury the Badgers in the Big House. This just in from our
DID YOU KNOW library: Rodriguez is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in his last ten
tries as a conference dog. Like the old cliché says, this one will be decided
by the team that wants it most… and Richie Rich needs today’s game like
a vampire needs blood.
CLEMSON over Maryland by 11
It seems like every year the Tigers show up with bigger, faster, more experienced
athletes but the Terps somehow lumber back home with the cash (4-0 ATS L4).
Clemson seems to have rebounded from its season-opening embarrassment
against Alabama (Tigers were outrushed by 239-0) by outdistancing their last
three opponents by an incredible 100 points. But Maryland’s offensive unit has
also answered the bell, following a pair of 14-point efforts with 86 points in
wins over California and Eastern Michigan. The problem in College Park is a
leaky defense that’s been riddled with injuries, particularly in the secondary,
but coach Ralph Friedgen is hoping some key players will be healthy enough to
return for the Clemson game. Alabama’s monster start has erased some of the
criticism that dogged Tiger coach Tommy Bowden following that ugly loss but
TB knows the wolves are still lying in wait… especially bettors who are growing
weary of Clemmie’s recent ATS failures (12-15 L27). Our PLAYBOOK database
adds more grist to the mill when we note Clemson’s anemic 2-8 ATS log as ACC
home chalk of less than 20 points against a foe seeking revenge. Our honest
opinion is there are more than a few sharp numbers on Saturday’s board and
this happens to be one of them.
UCLA over Fresno St by 1
The Bruins were brought down and fi eld-dressed by Arizona last week, bringing
UCLA’s point defi cit for its last two games (both losses) to 90-10 – fi gures that
make the squad’s season-opening defeat of Tennessee seem like a distant
mirage. However, against the Wildcats, the Bruin were without their top QBs,
top two running backs, best pass receiver, starting center and starting tight
end. Whew! Coach Rick Neuheisel did fi nd some solace in his team’s ability to
fi ght into the fourth quarter against Zona after they had been chased out of
Provo just after the coin toss. “Those who stay and continue to work will be
rewarded,” said Neuheisel and we’re not about to give up on Ricky boy just
yet… not with UCLA logging a 7-2 ATS mark versus the WAC. We’ve already
told you that OT winners are bad news if they head out on the highway in their
next game (52-74-2 ATS entering this season) and Fresno comes to town off one
of the wildest OT wins we’ve ever witnessed, a 55-54 barnburner over Toledo
that made the Bulldogs the fi rst ranked team ever to win at the Glass Bowl.
Pat Hill’s team has not cashed many checks as non-conference chalk, though,
going just 3-10 ATS (including an awful 0-3 road record). It’s going to take some
courage on your part but we look for a bruised Bruins bounce-back tonight.
Bowling Green over WYOMING by 1
Have you checked out Wyoming’s logo this season? Not only has the cowboy
been bucked off his ride, he’s hobbling around on crutches. Wyoming has
been all hat and no cattle in ‘08, winning a pair of games against mediocre
opposition by just 1 and 3 points. They’ve also been emasculated in their two
losses by a brutal 67-3 margin and may have 6th-year coach Joe Glenn riding
the proverbial hot-seat. Laramie will be no easy venue for the BeeGees; the
Cowboys are 9-3 SU in their last dozen on the high plains. They’re also a mindboggling
0-11-1 in their 12 games – a number we’d love to use if Bowling
Green wasn’t 0-3 ITS so far in ’08. This will be the Falcons’ second consecutive
game at high altitude (Boise State two weeks ago) but perhaps a week of rest
can help them iron out some serious kinks. Given Wyoming’s current state of
disintegration, a loss would come as no surprise but can we really trust the
Falcons to cover the hook? If you told a friend you were playing this game,
you’d probably get a ‘you should be in a clinic’ look.
Oregon over WASHINGTON ST by 19
With both teams hobbled by quarterback problems (Ducks have lost their
starter to injury in 5 of their last 8 games), we must withdraw to the stacks for
insight. And the magic eight-ball says… Oregon. Check these ATS credentials: 5-
0 as PAC 10 road chalk of 12 or more points, 3-0 off a SU favorite loss, 5-1 versus
a conference opponent with revenge and 10-2 before USC. Wow! Our Captain
Obvious Award of the week goes to WSU coach Paul Wulff when his Cougars
beat 1-AA Portland State 48-9 – after being annihilated in their three previous
games by 150-33: “This team is taking steps. It’s maybe not as fast as we want,
but it is.” That sort of coaching acumen usually points us in the direction of the
opponent but there’s a problem: the magic eight-ball said Oregon by 19 and
that’s real close to the line. We may revisit this later in the week.
S CAROLINA over Uab by 21
Poor Steve Spurrier. A head coach who was spoiled by quality, precision athletes
at Florida must now battle weekly to get anything out of his ragtag South
Carolina offense. Sad to say but the not-so-game Cocks actually struggled last
week with 1-AA Wofford before subduing the Terriers 23-13 (a game Spurrier
would have won 52-3 at Gainesville). The ol’ ball coach is laying a lot today
for someone with a 9-17-1 ATS record as chalk off a win when teeing it up
against a non-SEC foe off a win. That could work with UAB’s 9-4 ATS mark as
a double-digit dog versus an opponent off a win but the Blazers have been in
a downward spiral since Watson Brown’s last year. They’re just 6-17 SU since
the start of 2006 – with two of those wins coming against unlined teams – and
simply don’t have the livestock to compete at this level. Even so, we’re not
risking any hard-earned money on a Gamecock team favored by three TDs
when they’ve managed just 15.7 PPG in their last three outings. Nope!
TEXAS A&M over Army by 24
Aggies have got a long way to go after making Miami Fla look like the
Hurricanes of old in a disappointing 41-23 loss at College Station last Saturday.
New Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman has taken his lumps, opening 1-2 while
juggling quarterbacks on the way to the Big 12 South cellar. Fortunately for
Sherman, help has arrived in the form of an even more hapless outfi t, the
Army Black Knights. But while we’re convinced the Aggies can bag the SU win,
they’re certainly no lock to get the money. A&M faced off with the Cadets in
2006 as 27-point favorites and barely escaped with a 28-24 win. These Cadets
may not be much but double-digit military dogs off a loss are an outstanding
90-65-3 ATS, including 40-23 when battling a foe also off a loss. Still, Army’s
normally reliable ground offense has been held to single-digit scoring in two of
three games (no TDs in seven straight quarters), a fact that puts us right back
on the fence. Your call.
BALL ST over Kent St by 15
How ‘bout them ‘Nads? They’re currently the toast of the MAC, the league’s
only unbeaten team and owners of a lethal offense that has infl icted doubledigit
beatings on all four of this season’s opponents. Last week’s 42-20 rout of
Indiana was the fi rst win ever for the Cards against a BCS-conference team,
impressive enough to force the linemaker to make BSU a double-digit favorite
this Saturday for just the 3rd time in the last 53 games. Granted, the Testicular
Ones will miss fallen WR Dante Love but they still rolled up 463 yards against the
Hoosiers and should damage a Golden Gashes defense that got ripped for 677
yards and 44 points versus UL-Lafayette. However, we think the number’s a bit
infl ated, especially with Ball State cast in the unprofi table role of Homecoming
favorite – and coming off a big revenge win over in-state rival Indiana. With
Kent State owning a 10-2 ATS record as road dogs of less than 20 points with
revenge, the pendulum starts to reverse direction. We do love our ‘Nads but
not at this price. Later, boys.
South Florida over NC STATE by 7
The Wolfpack used up a season’s worth of emotion in last week’s electrifying
overtime win over East Carolina at Raleigh. NC State fans that were wondering
if the Tom O’Brien hire would ever produce dividends must have breathed a
huge sigh of relief following the 30-24 Wolfpack win. They may fi nd themselves
gasping for breath today when State butts heads with the Bulls of South Florida
(3-0 ATS vs. ACC foes). USF sleepwalked through a weak 17-9 win over woeful
Florida International last Saturday so you can bet the coaches will clamp down
and demand greater intensity for this tough road game. State does have one
solid stat in its favor: entering this season, home underdogs off a SU overtime
win are 27-17 ATS. We have great respect for the USF program but State could
ride the home crowd to another cover here.
Florida State over Colorado by 6
Sure wish we hadn’t already handed out the Caption Obvious Award. Try out
this gem from Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden after his Seminoles lost
SEVEN turnovers in a brutal 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest: “We’re not where
I hoped we would be.” Guess what? Things might not improve real soon. Fresh
off a confi dence-builder over West Virginia, the Buffs carry a 5-1 ATS mark into
Jacksonville when playing off a SU home dog win. No need to worry about a
Colorado look-ahead to Texas; the Buffaloes have cashed eight of nine tries
before taking on the Longhorns. The dazed Seminoles are 0-4 ATS lately after
playing Wake and own a poor 1-5 ATS mark off an ACC opponent when taking
on a non-league opponent. The site should provide a major edge for FSU in
terms of fan support, the main reason we’re calling for a fi nal so close to the
current number.
led Boston College 7-3 at halftime last week, then were
trampled underfoot by a 31-point second-half outburst by the Eagles. Poor
play at quarterback and a rash of missed fi eld goals doomed UCF, not good
news for a squad that’s only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 tries as a road favorite.
George O’Leary’s Knights beat the Miners last season, 36-20, as 21-point home
favorites – making the current 4-5 point line look mighty tempting. That’s when
the PLAYBOOK database warns us UTEP is a solid 6-2 ATS recently as a home
underdog. Sure, the Miners aren’t much but they did outgain mighty Texas in a
loss here three weeks ago. Close call.
New Mexico over NEW MEXICO ST by 1
Lobos must have still been reading the press clippings from their stirring 36-
28 home shocker over Arizona when they took the fi eld against Tulsa last
Saturday. Thirty minutes later, the Golden Hurricane had blown New Mexico
off the fi eld by a 35-0 score. Tulsa fi nished with 606 total yards of offense and
scored touchdowns on fi ve of its six fi rst-half possessions. Thankfully for UNM
coach Rocky Long, he gets to take on an opponent he’s beaten fi ve consecutive
times. But this little beauty from the PLAYBOOK database puts us on Hal
Mumme’s Aggies: home teams in Game Three are 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS vs.
sub .500 foes playing Game Five, including 7-0 ATS if the host is off a loss. With
State gradually closing the gap between these two enemy programs, look for
the Aggies to improve to 6-0-1 ATS in Game Three of a season by nabbing the
cover here.
SAN DIEGO ST over Idaho by 13
These sure are some sporadic Spuds. Idaho has gone 2-2 so far ITS this year
but those two stat losses were by an ungodly 409 and 309 yards. How bad
are the Vandals? So bad that we like a San Diego State team that’s averaging
just 34.7 yards rushing per game (#118) to bring home the pointspread bacon
against the Tater Heads. Aztecs play their best off a bye week, covering 10 of 13
opportunities, a number that tightens to 8-1 if they’re off back-to-back losses
(SDSU 0-3 in ’08). Any team that gives up 42 points to lowly Utah State like the
spud-boys did last week can’t be trusted at any price.
UNLV over Nevada by 3
Surprising Rebels (2-win season each of the previous four years) have started
3-1 for the fi rst time since 2003. They followed their huge upset of Arizona
State with a tense 34-31 win over Iowa State, their second consecutive overtime
victory. Vegas hasn’t slowed down the Wolf Pack lately, though, dropping three
in a row both SU and ATS. Nevada won last year’s meeting 27-20 but the loss of
star RB Luke Lippincott (broken leg against Texas Tech on 9/6) is a major blow
for the Reno Wolves. We’re going to pass here so if you plan on playing this
Silver State battle, you’ll have to pick your poison.
San Jose St over HAWAII by 1
Spartans got shoved around by more physical Stanford last week but will have
no such problem here: Hawaii has gone from being an undefeated BCS bowl
squad to a WAC punching bag in record time. SJSU coach Dick Tomey has come
up empty in three cracks at the Warriors but this could be his breakthrough
opportunity. The Islanders are just 4-8 ATS in the series, including a sad 1-5 mark
off a SU loss, and their offense has declined to the point where the defense is
spending far too many minutes on the fi eld. We’ll take the better team with
the better coach – and as many points as we can scrape up by game time.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY over W Kentucky by 25
On paper this is a much bigger game for the new kids on the block from
Bowling Green than it is for the Lexington Cats. The little schools always bring
all they’ve got against their brethren (witness Ohio U at Ohio State earlier this
season). With Alabama on deck (0-4 ATS in games before the Tide), Kentucky
could be in a prime look-ahead spot. However, in deference to the SMART BOX,
we’ll ditch those ideas and instead ignore the Hilltoppers.
MEMPHIS over Arkansas St by 3
The Red Wolves have been a pleasant surprise this season and look to be in
position to challenge Florida Atlantic for Sun Belt honors. Before buying a ride
on the Red Wolf express, though, be advised Memphis has played much better
than its 1-3 record would indicate. The fact of the matter is the Tigers are 4-0 In
the Stats this season. They also enter today’s fray with a dose of double revenge
against ASU. With a Louisiana Monroe revenge affair up next for the Wolves,
we’ll run with the Tigers in this four-legged special.
OKLAHOMA ST over Troy by 18
Hats off to the Trojans. Not only did they manage to outstat Ohio State in
Columbus last week, they are also 17-6 SU in their last 23 games. Hence, a 5-1
ATS log as dogs of 24 or less points when squaring off against .666 or greater
opposition. The question today, though, is whether or not a letdown is in
order? In the Cowboys they take on a team that has bagged the cash in 10 of
its last 12 tries as a non-conference favorite of 13 or more points. If a string of
three straight Big 12 revenge games weren’t on tap, we’d consider snapping
the rubberband with this offensive juggernaut.
TOLEDO over Florida Int’l by 16
Holy Toledo, what a contest the Rockets were involved in last week. A 55-54
overtime loss to Fresno, on this fi eld, was determined when Tom Amstutz
decided to pull a ‘Shanahan’ and go-for-two to win the game in the 2nd OT.
Now they become a non-desirous home favorite off an overtime loss with a
Ball State revenge game up next. While FIU isn’t much, they did battle USF
tooth-n-nail in the debut of their new home stadium last week and could be in
a letdown mode themselves. No interest either way here.
KANSAS ST over UL-Lafayette by 21
Another paycheck game but then aren’t all non conference Sun Belt games for
the love of the money? The thinking here is the Wildcats likely have bigger fi sh
to fry next week (Texas Tech). Next thought is the Ragin’ Cajuns are a nifty 6-3
ATS against the Big 12. The fi nal thinking is KSU is 7-1 ATS at home versus an
opponent off a double-digit victory. The bottom line is we suppose we’ll pass.
RICE over North Texas by 19
Rotten numbers abound on both sides of the ball in this stinker. The not-so
Mean Green are 2-9 ATS as non-conference pups off a loss and 1-5 ATS as wellrested
dogs. The soggy Krispies have no snap, crackle or pop either as they are
1-9 ATS as chalk off a non-conference game when taking on a foe off a loss;
1-6 SU and ATS in their last 7 tries as a favorite; and are a not-so-glamorous
13-33 SU record in their last 46 games. We’re not interested whatsoever in this
scrabble match.
WRITE-IN GAME
TEXAS over Arkansas by 24
The Hogs were taken back behind the shed and whupped-up at home by
Alabama in a red-faced 35-point loss last week while Texas trounced Rice by 42
points in preparation for this Hurricane Ike makeup. According to our history
book, Arkansas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last four games in this series while the
visiting team is a super-sharp 9-1-1 ATS the last 10 games. Considering that,
since 1980, the largest line in this series has been 13.5 points (two times) and
that the underdog won both of those affairs STRAIGHT-UP, you’d have to hogtie
us to keep us from taking the points.
<!-- / message -->
Volume 23, Issue 6 September 25-29, 2008
COLLEGE
5* BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Tcu by 28
Stoops’ recall is just fi ne, thanks, and when he sees the Horned Frogs
take the fi eld at Norman on Saturday he’ll be thinking of one thing only:
opening day, 2005, when 25-point OU was suffocated in a 17-10 TCU win.
The coach that orchestrated that shocker, Gary Patterson, is still wearing
purple and his 4-0 Frogs own a punishing defense that has limited foes
to just 7.8 PPG in 2008. Well, say goodbye to that stat right now. When
playing at home with revenge, Stoopsie is a jaw-dropping 7-0 SU and 6-1
ATS – with the average win being 46-9. And we’re here to tell you that
this bunch of Sooners is something special. Led by phenomenal QB Sam
Bradford, the OU offense is cranking out 54.7 PPG, slightly more than the
52.6 PPG they averaged at home last. Oklahoma also owns a huge edge
in depth, a major advantage late in any game. We’re aware that TCU has
yet to trail in a game this season and has gone 10-4 ATS versus the Big
12 but there’ll be none of that ‘lizard sneakin’ up on somebody’ business
this time... the best of this week’s SMART BOX says so. Stoops has his
team nicely positioned at this stage of the season for a deep run at the
BCS Championship game and he won’t show mercy if the Sooners blow it
open. THIS JUST IN: TCU 4-21-1 ATS when the Froggies lose SU as a road
dog against an avenging opponent (1-15-1 vs. winning foe). Ouch!
4* BEST BET
PENN ST over Illinois by 27
Okay, so the Nittany Lions haven’t taken on world-class competition so
far in 2008 – they still look like the team to beat in this season’s Big 10
race. The Nits have taken to Joe Pa’s new spread offense, averaging an
Oklahoma-like 539 YPG (273 rushing / 266 passing). Last year’s 27-20 win
by Illinois was head coach Ron Zook’s fi rst over Paterno and Joe Shades
is a good bet to return the favor: he’s 17-5 ATS when winning SU as a
favorite with revenge. Zook’s numbers don’t look nearly so good. He’s a
weak 1-6 ATS on the road versus revenge (0-3 as a dog with losses of 17,
23 and 33 points) and has not cashed a single ticket against an avenging
conference foe. With the 81-year old Paterno noticeably bothered by a
broken leg suffered last season, this is Penn State’s best opportunity to
reach the BCS title game before the iconic Joe Pa resigns. Regardless, the
Lions should avenge last year’s SU road favorite loss at Champaign by
squeezing the Juice out of the Illini.
3* BEST BET
Alabama over GEORGIA by 3
Alabama coach Nick Saban has the Tide rolling full speed ahead right
now, exceeding just about everyone’s expectations (Bama ranked #24
in preseason) while Georgia looks as talented, strong and deep as any
program in the country. Saban’s bunch made this one a real dogfi ght last
year, losing 26-23 at Tuscaloosa, and they’ve snarled their way to a 9-0-1
mark as dogs of 6 > points off BB wins. Saban also has a 10-0-1 ATS card
up his sleeve when Bama dresses up as a conference dog with revenge off
a conference win taking on a foe off a SU win. Georgia’s Mark Richt is just
1-5 ATS between the hedges off consecutive away games and 3-7 ATS at
home before a revenger (UGA has Tennessee next). Alabama has taken
the bullet in three straight meetings but appears to be a young team on
the rise under Saban (only 9 seniors on roster), capable of matching up
physically with Georgia’s superb athletes. The clincher? Little Nicky is the
answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, an offer we can never
refuse. Put a leash on them dawgs… the tide’s coming in.
TULANE over Smu by 16
The critics said it would take awhile for June Jones’ offense to catch on at
SMU and they were right. Still, four games into the season, the Mustangs are
averaging a semi-respectable 22 PPG. Too bad the defense never gets off the
bus. They’ve been stampeded for 45.8 PPG and at this rate, it won’t be long
before Pony fans are threatening the defensive coaches with waterboarding.
Jones (now known as ‘June Rodriguez’ in Honolulu) may start feeling some
heat himself if he can’t kick-start an offense that’s scored only ONE TD in each
of SMU’s previous two games. Unlike the 91-14 point defi cit run up by the
Mustangs in losses to Texas Tech and TCU, Tulane was much more competitive
with the big boys, falling to Alabama and East Carolina by just a 48-30 margin.
SMU has been an easy mark in this rivalry lately, failing to cover in six of the last
seven get-togethers. That smells like money when we consider Tulane’s robust
20-5 ATS record when they win SU as a favorite off a prior SUATS win (Wave
already 3-0 ATS in ’08). The scent starts to fade, however, when we realize the
Greenies haven’t swept over an opponent by this big a margin since 2005. With
Bob Toledo’s team thrust into such an unfamiliar role, we may reluctantly pass
this one by.
Usc over OREGON ST by 17
Even though the Beavers shook off a disappointing 0-2 start by blasting Hawaii
45-7 two weeks ago, we’re still not sure how good they are. On the other hand,
talk to anyone who saw USC’s sacrifi cial slaughter of Ohio State and they’re
probably convinced that Pete Carroll has unleashed an army of maroon-andgold
cyborgs that simply cannot be stopped (hmmm… wonder what the line
would be on a neutral fi eld game between USC and the Detroit Lions?). While
a little genetic tampering wouldn’t surprise us, the Trojans run headlong into
some very bad ATS numbers in today’s situation: 1-5 as DD PAC 10 road chalk,
1-3 as weekday favorites of 7 > pts and 4-10 away versus conference foes with
revenge. Not so for the guys with the overbite. OSU has covered three straight
in the series on this fi eld, cashed in 9 of its last 12 tries as DD home dogs and
grabbed the dough 11 out of 15 times when playing the dog in the second
of back-to-back homers. If you still believe Southern Cal will roll through
Corvallis like Patton’s Third Army, a word of caution: 2-0 SUATS RF’s are Major
Moneyburners in Game Three. Both teams have had an extra week to tighten
up the armor but our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) fi nds the Beavers ‘Back On
Track’ in USC’s 2008 conference opener.
Friday, September 26th
LOUISVILLE over UConn by 6
Both of these Big Easters were showcased against Big 12 foes last week in
primetime and both emerged with SU wins, just what was needed from a
conference that’s endured some withering criticism so far in 2008. For the
home-lovin’ Cardinals, this game marks the fi rst of four league paybacks from
last year. However, there are a few more ‘fours’ that need to be considered
here: conference home favorites in Game Four of a season-opening four-game
homestand are a lukewarm 7-16-1 ATS. Duly noted but we’ll also point out that
the invading Huskies don’t really live up to their name on the conference road,
mushing along to a feeble 2-9 ATS mark when getting points. With the series
visitor currently 0-3 ATS, it’s possible these sled dogs could lose their way on a
chilly Kentucky night.
Saturday, September 27th
WAKE FOREST over Navy by 13
And then there was one. With household names like Virginia Tech, Florida State,
Miami Fla and Clemson grabbing the headlines, the notion that Wake Forest
would one day – any day – fi nd themselves to be the ACC’s fl agship program
seemed about as impossible as something like Elvis’ daughter marrying Michael
Jackson (wait… that did happen, didn’t it?). After confi dently humiliating
Florida State 12-3 on national TV to remain undefeated, Jim Grobe’s Deacons
can no longer be ignored as major players in the ACC. Wake does owe a debt
of gratitude to the schedule maker after being set up with a very beatable foe
in Navy on Saturday, then given a timely week off to prep for Clemson. The
Middies squared their season at 2-2 after becoming the latest bully to beat up
on Rutgers but still carry the scars of last year’s 20-point thrashing by Wake
at Annapolis. The sailors are 5-1 ATS as dogs of 14 > points, a stat that loses
some signifi cance when we note Navy’s 2-7 mark as dogs lately against the
ACC. However, the Demon Deacons own an embarrassing 0-6 spread record as
non-conference home chalk at this price. After trading bruises with the physical
Seminoles, Riley Skinner and company may not have enough left in the tank for
a margin call over the hard-trying Midshipmen.
TEMPLE over W Michigan by 1
We knew the Owls would have trouble getting up for Penn State last week
following their devastating last-second defeat by Buffalo on a Hail Mary TD
pass. Temple’s luck went from bad to worse when the Nittany Lions knocked
QB Adam DiMichele out of the game on the fi fth play from scrimmage but the
Owl defense stepped up to hold PSU scoreless in the fi rst quarter. Then the roof
collapsed and Temple was buried beneath 31 second-quarter points en route
to a 45-3 embarrassment. Western Michigan rides into Philly on a 3-game win
streak and will get to line up against its fi fth consecutive foe that suffered a
losing season in ’07. However, we’re not that impressed by the Broncos’ list of
victims – Northern Illinois, Idaho and Tennessee Tech – and the trip to hostile
Lincoln Financial Field may be tougher than expected. The barn-dwellers are 5-
1 ATS playing with revenge after tangling with Penn State and we actually like
homecoming home dogs playing with triple revenge. Although DiMichele will
miss the game (and likely be out for a considerable length of time), replacement
Chester Stewart won’t be running for his life all afternoon like he was against
the fearsome Nittany Lion pass rush. Owls fi ght their way back into the MAC
race with the upset here.
WEST VIRGINIA over Marshall by 15
Mountaineer fans are silently praying they haven’t jumped the gun in awarding
a contract extension to coach Bill Stewart… especially after West Virginia’s 17-14
overtime loss at Colorado dropped the Mounties to 1-2 for the fi rst time since
2003. We’ve already warned you against putting your faith in a home favorite
recovering from an OT loss; that’s a shame because the Hillbillies are totin’
some good numbers to this fracas: West Virginia is 5-2 ATS off consecutive SU
road losses and 5-2 ATS at Morgantown taking on C-USA opponents. The Herd
may be 3-1 SU in ’08 but they’re 1-3 ITS (In The Stats) and have visited the shed
in their last two hoedowns with WVU, getting whacked by 25 and 32 points.
Despite their early woes, the Mountaineers represent a big step up in class for
Marshall, who will slide to 0-4-1 ATS versus the Big East if they fail against the
number here. Time for QB Pat White to step up and take control of his team.
Pittsburgh over SYRACUSE by 13
Here’s a real shocker: both coaches enter this contest off a SU win, although
Pittsburgh’s Dave Wannstedt earned his against a tough Iowa team while soonto-
be-cast-into-the-lake-of-fi re Greg Robinson watched his ‘Cuse batter 1-AA
cream puff Northeastern (0-3 this year and 3-8 in ’07). Even more unbelievable is
the Stunning Stat of the Week: the Orange are 25-8 SUATS in the dome off a SU
win, including a 3-1 ATS mark under the doomed Robinson. The Panthers are an
awful 1-5 ATS of late in Big East openers but we can’t get too excited because
Syracuse resides at the bottom of an 0-7 hole they’ve dug as home underdogs.
We also can’t seriously consider investing in two bad coaches who’ve enjoyed
about as much success lately as our country’s fi nancial institutions. No thanks.
Michigan St over INDIANA by 7
Ball State’s 42-20 pummeling of the Hoosiers last week lets us know the IU
program still has a ways to go under coach Bill Lynch. Indiana’s defense failed
to show up, allowing the Gonads to pile up 463 total yards in a disappointing
home favorite loss. Even more troubling is the 224 rushing yards the Hoosiers
yielded, a number that should have Michigan State RB Javon Ringer licking
his chops. After ripping through Notre Dame for 201 rushing yards, Ringer
increased his season total to 699 yards (2nd in the nation) and chalked up his
11th TD, the most in the country. The ATS archives also point us in Sparty’s
direction: MSU has cashed in 5 of the last 6 series meetings including a 4-1
ATS mark at Bloomington. The Hoosiers sweeten the deal by offering up a
miserable 10-24 ATS record at home when tackling a foe off back-to-back wins.
All these glowing numbers can’t disguise the fact that today’s game marks the
fi rst of FIVE straight Big 10 revengers for the Spartans and after being spoiled
by a trio of games in friendly East Lansing, MSU may be a tad overpriced as road
chalk in its conference opener. Pass.
IOWA over Northwestern by 8
Unbeaten Northwestern will get its fi rst major test of the young season in
Iowa City when they tackle an angry bunch of Hawkeyes who easily could have
beaten Pittsburgh last week but stumbled to a 21-20 loss instead. Iowa coach
Kirk Ferentz drew some criticism when he chose to go with QB Jake Christensen
over Ricky Stanzi for the entire second half but the truth is the loss was a total
team effort. The Hawkeyes outgained Pitt 361-259 but converted just 4-of-17
third-down opportunities, suffered six sacks and missed a critical 35-yard fi eld
goal. Expect the Iowa defense to rise to the occasion while Ferentz sorts out
his QB dilemma – the Hawkeye stop unit had allowed ZERO touchdowns in
three games before Pittsburgh crossed the goal line three times. The Wildcats’
fast start has come against a trio of weaklings that own a 1-7 SU mark against
lined competition in ’08 but Northwestern’s usually porous defense has shown
some fi re, holding back-to-back opponents to single digits for the fi rst time
since 1995. Still, there’s no denying NU’s sorry 4-10 ATS log as an underdog off
consecutive wins while the hosts chip in with a 4-0 SUATS mark when playing off
a 1-point loss. The bottom line is we’re just not that crazy about homecoming
favorites and the early line looks to be pretty sharp.
DUKE over Virginia by 3
No, it’s not a misprint… the Blue Devils are actually favored, quite a rare sight
for a team that’s taken an average of 16 PPG from the Cavaliers in ten straight
series doggie appearances. In fact, the Wahoos have been favored a whopping
19 times in a row over the Dukies, winning 17 of those confrontations SU. As
you might expect, Duke owns a horrid 1-10 ATS record as chalk and they don’t
know how to handle success, failing to cash in 15 of 16 tries after logging a SU
win. Fortunately for the Cavs, they’ve had an extra week off to initiate repairs to
a defense that was obliterated in a 45-10 loss at UConn (Huskies had a 506-219
advantage in total yards, outrushed UVA 382-31 and led 28-0 at halftime). They’ll
also be welcoming a walk-on at QB, a position devastated by injuries, defections
and suspensions. Despite these sobering stats, we still can’t open the wallet to lay
a touchdown with a team that’s been favored only TWICE in the last four years.
Our INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3) says it all: hold your nose and take the points.
MIAMI FLA over North Carolina by 4
Hurricanes showed some spunk in their loss to Florida two weeks ago, then
built on that success by roaring into College Station last Saturday and fl attening
Texas A&M 41-23. Suddenly, Miami is fl ashing a bit of the old UM swagger and
they’d love nothing more than to settle the score with former head coach Butch
Davis, who beat the Canes 33-27 as a 7-point home dog at Chapel Hill in ’07.
UNC looked to be in control of its ACC opener with Virginia Tech last week but
the Heels consistently shot themselves in both feet: critical turnovers combined
with 121 yards in penalties allowed the Hokies to rally from a 14-point defi cit
for the win. A major concern for this game is the health of Carolina QB T.J.
Yates, who left with an ankle against Va Tech and will not suit up here. That
adds up to a major advantage for the speedy Hurricane ‘D’ but until coach
Randy Shannon improves on his 2-6 SUATS mark in conference games (0-4 ATS
home), we simply can’t trust laying points with him. Miami’s 2-8 ATS record as a
revenger further clouds the picture and with the line currently hovering around
7 points, we think Baby Blue could actually steal the green here.
FLORIDA over Ole Miss by 20
The TV coverage of Florida’s 30-6 Saturday smackdown of Tennessee consisted
mainly of sideline shots of UT coach Phil Fulmer cursing, grimacing and gritting
his teeth in rage, images that will convince most bettors to expect a similarly
dominating effort from the Gators today. Not so fast, though… both teams
enter today’s tussle off ‘Inside-Out’ performances. Ole Miss buried Vandy by
183 yards in a 23-17 home loss to the Commodores while Fulmer’s Vols actually
won the stats against Florida. Even more disconcerting for reptile lovers is the
array of ATS stats that back the visiting Rebels. Ole Miss has cashed in four
straight meetings (3-0 L3 at The Swamp), owns a 4-0 ATS log off back-to-back
homers and rings the register when playing on the highway with SEC revenge
(7-2 ATS L9). Meanwhile, the Gators have dropped six straight to the number
after tangling with Tennessee and they’ve laid an 0-3 egg lately as conference
home chalk of 22 or more points. UF’s 3-0 start is somewhat misleading: the
Gators are averaging 37 PPG despite gaining only 332 YPG thanks to their
overwhelming 10-1 edge in the turnover department. Florida’s Urban Meyer
has faced Mississippi coach Houston Nutt only once, winning by 10 points in the
2006 SEC Championship game, and he’ll have to coax another such effort from
his Gators to have a realistic shot at covering today’s huge impost.
LSU over Mississippi St by 21
Even if LSU doesn’t get a chance to defend its national championship this
season, there’s no denying the toughness and tenacity of this superb Tiger team.
Trailing 14-3 at the half in Saturday night’s showdown with Auburn, the Bayou
Bengals scored a touchdown on their fi rst possession of the second stanza, then
silenced the sold-out crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium when Les Miles pulled an
onside kick from under his hat and regained possession of the football. Several
plays later, LSU scored to take the lead and even though Auburn rallied for
a late 21-20 edge, the better-conditioned, more physical Tiger offensive line
cleared the way for a game-winning – and spread covering – TD with just over
a minute remaining. Coupled with Mississippi State’s horrendous no-show at
Georgia Tech (lost 38-7), today’s matchup looks like the latest in a long line of
LSU blowouts of the Bulldogs. The Bengals have grabbed the cash in 10 of the
last 11 series meetings and Miles has punished MSU coach Sylvester Croom in
their three contests by an average of over 35 PPG. True, LSU is stuck between
an Auburn/Florida sandwich but the Tigers get a bye week after Missy State to
gear up for the Gators. We can trot out a few stats in favor of the Bulldogs – 8-2
ATS on the road with revenge, for example – but we know you’ll ignore them.
Our take is simple… we don’t see how LSU can recover from its emotionally
depleting win over Auburn to take the woeful Bulldogs seriously and as we’ve
said before, disinterested favorites are not to our liking. Pass.
No Illinois over E MICHIGAN by 6
Following a pair of season-opening losses to Minnesota and Western Michigan
that could easily have ended as wins, Northern Illinois fi nally broke into the
win column with a 48-3 destruction of Indiana State. We’d be more impressed
if new Huskies coach Jerry Kill had beaten up someone besides a Sycamore
scrap heap that went 0-11 last season but, in truth, NIU could be heading into
today’s revenger with the EMUs sporting a 3-0 record. The Eagles opened their
season with a 52-0 smashing of the same sad Sycamores but have since been
grounded by a trio of consecutive ugly losses where they were outscored 134-
51. This probably explains why Northern Illinois, a team that lost to Eastern
Michigan last year as double-digit home favorites, has been installed as 6-point
road chalk here. The Huskies can improve to 4-0 SU and ATS on this fi eld with a
win-and-cover today but from where we’re sitting, it looks too close to call.
C MICHIGAN over Buffalo by 3
More MAC madness as both teams try to shake off non-conference losses.
Gutty Buffalo continues to impress under coach Turner Gill, hanging tough
with mighty Missouri before falling 42-21 (easily covering as a 32-point dog).
The Chippewas played hard, too, losing a second straight last-minute decision
to Purdue but also cashing the ATS ticket. We know the linemaker is impressed
with Buffy: the Bulls are catching just 7 points at Mount Pleasant compared to
the 15 they took in a home game with CMU back in 2006. With few ATS stats to
recommend either side, let’s talk intangibles. We think Buffalo gained a world
of confi dence from their game with Mizzou while Central Michigan could still
be down after dropping an emotional double revenger to the Boilers. The Bulls
are 7-1 ATS after allowing 21 or more points and if the Chips let down just a
little, Buffy could easily roam into the Winner’s Circle.
Cincinnati over AKRON by 7
Bearcats showed no ill effects from their previous manhandling at Oklahoma
when they rebounded to spank Miami Ohio 45-20. Cincy QB Tony Pike replaced
injured starter Dustin Grutza and almost pitched a perfect game, completing
20 of 24 passes for 241 yards and 3 touchdowns. Though today’s matchup is a
home game for Akron, the Zips are probably wishing they could take on the
Bearcats somewhere in New York… both their wins this season came in the
Empire State against Syracuse and Army. Yes, the Rubber City boys did go fl at
in losses to Wisconsin and Ball State but with Cincinnati’s Pike making his fi rst
road start, Akron may be able to keep the Bearcat offense in check. The Zips’
22-3 win over the Cadets last week makes them a play in this sweet little angle:
home underdogs off a SU win as double-digit favorites are a solid 13-6 ATS
since 1990. We’ll cast a slim vote on Akron’s behalf here.
EAST CAROLINA over Houston by 7
You’d be hard-pressed to fi nd two more dejected squads squaring off on
today’s schedule than ECU and Houston. The BCS bowl glass slipper that the
Pirates were so proudly displaying after a 3-0 start was rudely shattered by an
overtime loss to hated NC State when ECU QB Patrick Pinkney set up State for
the winning score by losing a critical fumble. The Cougars, a bowl team for
the past three seasons, sank to a 1-3 start when new coach Kevin Sumlin rolled
the dice against Colorado State and came up empty. Instead of attempting a
32-yard FG that would have forced overtime with the Rams, Sumlin directed
QB Case Keenum to go for the win – and his pass was picked off in the CSU
end zone. Despite their disappointed demeanor, both teams bring some strong
ATS credentials to the party. East Carolina has covered fi ve of the last six in the
series. They also own a 5-0 ATS mark off consecutive road trips and stand 6-1
ATS as double-digit conference chalk. Houston counters with a 5-1-1 ATS mark
when playing with conference revenge, a scenario that was assured by last
year’s ugly 37-35 loss to ECU as a 14-point home favorite. Our aversion to OT
losers that show up as home favorites will keep us from sailing with the Pirates
here, especially since the ship appears to have sprung a few serious leaks.
NOTRE DAME over Purdue by 1
The Joe Tiller Farewell Tour is not exactly going as planned. Two weeks ago
the Boilermakers let Oregon climb back from a 20-3 defi cit to defeat Purdue
in overtime and last Saturday the Boilers fell behind Central Michigan 25-24
before Kory Sheets saved Tiller’s scalp with a 46-yard TD run in the game’s fi nal
minute. Even so, the 2-1 Boilermakers have allowed more yards than they’ve
gained this season and could be walking into a real hornet’s nest today. Just
the fact that Notre Dame is favored in this game is a moral victory of sorts for
the Irish – Charlie Weis and company were 22-point dogs in last year’s game
at Ross-Ade Stadium. Success is certainly measured in small steps these days at
South Bend... Notre Dame fans are ecstatic with their team’s current 3-game
home win streak! However, lurking beneath the shadow of Touchdown Jesus
is a blasphemous 5-11 ATS record by the Irish in their previous 16 home games.
Since we don’t have much faith in a Notre Dame offense that rushed for a
measly 16 yards against Michigan State, the points look like the play here.
OHIO ST over Minnesota by 20
Somebody get the smelling salts. We just thought we saw where Minnesota
was 4-0 and sitting atop the Big 10 with Northwestern and Penn State. Let’s
hope the Gophers have enjoyed their brief moment in the sun because they’re
about to take a class in Tressel-ology… where one important lesson teaches
“the best way to reverse a poor early-season start is to redirect the entire focus
of the team to their conference opener.” That’s evidenced by the Buckeyes’ 7-0
SU and ATS mark in conference lid-lifters against winning teams. Unfortunately
for Minnesota, the golden rodents happen to be fi rst into the breech – and
they’ve misfi red in their last three duels with Herbie, losing by 23, 44 and
14 points. Dust off the Gophers’ dismal 2-7 ATS mark as road dogs with Big
10 revenge and the Bucks start to look like the side. Don’t go emptying the
vault just yet, though: Ohio State is currently re-tooling its offense to feature
freshman phenom QB Terrell Pryor and aren’t fully in synch yet (Buckeyes were
outyarded in last week’s win/no cover against Troy). Could this fi nally be the
week we get to bear witness to the Second Coming of Nine-Toe Wells?
NEBRASKA over Va Tech by 8
Unbeaten Nebraska gets a cold shot of reality this weekend. After opening
against a trio of losers from 2007, Bo Pelini’s Huskers must trade consecutive
punches with ACC power Virginia Tech and Big 12 foe Missouri. First things
first: Big Red is solid gold when taking on a non-conference team at Lincoln
following a week of rest. The Huskers have shucked their way to an 8-0 SU
and 5-1 ATS record in this role, scoring 38 or more points in each game with
the average fi nal score being 49-14! Now comes the hard part. The Hokies
have compiled an outstanding 12-2-1 ATS success story as road underdogs,
including a near-perfect 8-0-1 ATS record if it’s a single-digit game – but this
week’s SMART BOX (page 2) tells us to look away from the visitors. Yeah, we
know it’s tough to fade Frank Beamer in this desirable dog role but Va Tech
was really outplayed in its slim, come-from-behind win over North Carolina.
Beamer’s decision to continue the two-headed QB system of Tyrod Taylor and
Sean Glennon is another cause for concern. A win-and-cover here will be a
huge boost for Pelini’s fl edgling program; we think he’ll get it.
WASHINGTON over Stanford by 6
We’d like about fi ve minutes alone with Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Holding a 16-10 lead and the ball at San Jose State’s 2-yard line with just 9
seconds remaining, Harbaugh could have shown a little class in this west coast
rivalry by ordering his QB to ‘put down the knee’ and let the clock run out.
Instead, he had the Cardinal offense run another play and they punched in a TD
that changed our 4* Late Phone Release on the Spartans from a comfortable
winner to an agonizing defeat (none of the Stanford alumni were complaining,
however). A bit farther north, Washington’s Ty Willingham has watched his
popularity sink to a Bush-like low after the Huskies were steamrolled 55-14
by Oklahoma two weeks ago, a loss that kept U-Dub winless in 2008. Despite
having a week off to recover from the Sooner spanking, Washington’s ATS
history warns us of another impending defeat. The Huskies have soiled the
bedsheets lately as home favorites, cashing just FOUR of their previous 23
opportunities (1-11 versus PAC 10 foes) and they’ve posted the big zero when
laying more than 3 points to a conference opponent, going 0-12 ATS. There’s
just one catch: our SAGACIOUS SQUARE (page 3) tells us that the Huskies are
the side – and like Merrill-Lynch in days gone by, when TSB speaks, we listen.
Take that, Harbaugh!
CALIFORNIA over Colorado St by 28
Here we go again. The not-so-Golden Bears have had an extra week to shake
the cobwebs from their rock-bottom road favorite failure at Maryland but
history tells us Cal is just 1-6 ATS recently as double-digit non-conference HF’s.
Big deal… the SMART BOX comes to Jeff Tedford’s rescue here, instructing all
wise followers to fade a Colorado State squad that’s just 1-5 ATS in its last six
tries as an underdog to the PAC 10. The Rams hung tough in last year’s battle
at Fort Collins, losing 34-28 as 14-point home pups but we feel that will just
make the Golden Boys considerably more focused today. CSU’s two wins after a
humbling 38-17 season-opening loss to rival Colorado have come against 1-AA
Sacramento State and struggling Houston. If Cal hadn’t been hoodwinked into
a high-noon start at Maryland that wreaked havoc on the Bear players’ internal
body clocks, Berkeley’s Best might be undefeated right now. We think they’ll
take out some major frustration on CSU here and send the Rams home minus a
few sets of horns. As California cookouts go, this looks to be a ROAST.
AUBURN over Tennessee by 4
At the end of last week’s monster brawl between LSU and Auburn, Tiger
head coach Tommy Tuberville wore his now-familiar ‘deer in the headlights’
expression, the look of a man desperately trying to change the outcome of an
event by continually replaying the closing moments in his mind. Tennessee’s
Phil Fulmer wore a similar expression at the end of Florida’s 30-6 romp over
his outclassed Vols, three punishing hours for UT that grew more frustrating
by the minute. Thus the task for both teams this Saturday will be to shake off
a crushing defeat and prepare for the next opponent in the SEC gauntlet. Our
crack crew of Southeastern Conference insiders (there really aren’t any… we
just wanted to say that) are unanimous in backing the Big Orange in today’s
slugfest. The Vols have covered four straight after wrestling the Gators, own a
solid 8-1 ATS mark when hitting the road after back-to-back games in Knoxville
and have barked their way to a 6-2-2 ATS record as conference dogs of 10
points or less. Tennessee’s 1-2 SU mark may look butt-ugly to their fans but
the Vols’ 3-0 ITS mark this season certainly gets our attention. The series host
may be 9-3 versus the number but we’re convinced Aubbie left an awful lot on
the fi eld after blowing a pair of leads in last Saturday’s heartbreaking failure
against LSU. Take the points with Rocky Top.
GAME OF THE WEEK
MICHIGAN over Wisconsin by 6
Okay, let’s have a show of hands. How many of you have already
sh**canned the Wolverines? We thought so. However, as handicappers,
we have to be a bit more forgiving in our evaluation of a team’s weekly
performance and right now we know that Joe Public thinks of Michigan
as little more than Big 10 road kill. Can you handle the truth? The Maizeand-
Blue has won 16 of the last 20 clashes with Wisky outright – and they
were chalk in all 20 games! We love dominating dogs that have been
favored forever in a series, especially when their foes own a 1-5 ATS mark
against revenging conference opponents. Both squads come in off a week
of rest and have performed well in that role (Wisconsin 5-1 ATS, Michigan
4-1-1 ATS). Rich Rodriguez has a solid defense at his disposal so if he can
just get the offense to cut down on stupid penalties and critical turnovers,
the homeboys can bury the Badgers in the Big House. This just in from our
DID YOU KNOW library: Rodriguez is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in his last ten
tries as a conference dog. Like the old cliché says, this one will be decided
by the team that wants it most… and Richie Rich needs today’s game like
a vampire needs blood.
CLEMSON over Maryland by 11
It seems like every year the Tigers show up with bigger, faster, more experienced
athletes but the Terps somehow lumber back home with the cash (4-0 ATS L4).
Clemson seems to have rebounded from its season-opening embarrassment
against Alabama (Tigers were outrushed by 239-0) by outdistancing their last
three opponents by an incredible 100 points. But Maryland’s offensive unit has
also answered the bell, following a pair of 14-point efforts with 86 points in
wins over California and Eastern Michigan. The problem in College Park is a
leaky defense that’s been riddled with injuries, particularly in the secondary,
but coach Ralph Friedgen is hoping some key players will be healthy enough to
return for the Clemson game. Alabama’s monster start has erased some of the
criticism that dogged Tiger coach Tommy Bowden following that ugly loss but
TB knows the wolves are still lying in wait… especially bettors who are growing
weary of Clemmie’s recent ATS failures (12-15 L27). Our PLAYBOOK database
adds more grist to the mill when we note Clemson’s anemic 2-8 ATS log as ACC
home chalk of less than 20 points against a foe seeking revenge. Our honest
opinion is there are more than a few sharp numbers on Saturday’s board and
this happens to be one of them.
UCLA over Fresno St by 1
The Bruins were brought down and fi eld-dressed by Arizona last week, bringing
UCLA’s point defi cit for its last two games (both losses) to 90-10 – fi gures that
make the squad’s season-opening defeat of Tennessee seem like a distant
mirage. However, against the Wildcats, the Bruin were without their top QBs,
top two running backs, best pass receiver, starting center and starting tight
end. Whew! Coach Rick Neuheisel did fi nd some solace in his team’s ability to
fi ght into the fourth quarter against Zona after they had been chased out of
Provo just after the coin toss. “Those who stay and continue to work will be
rewarded,” said Neuheisel and we’re not about to give up on Ricky boy just
yet… not with UCLA logging a 7-2 ATS mark versus the WAC. We’ve already
told you that OT winners are bad news if they head out on the highway in their
next game (52-74-2 ATS entering this season) and Fresno comes to town off one
of the wildest OT wins we’ve ever witnessed, a 55-54 barnburner over Toledo
that made the Bulldogs the fi rst ranked team ever to win at the Glass Bowl.
Pat Hill’s team has not cashed many checks as non-conference chalk, though,
going just 3-10 ATS (including an awful 0-3 road record). It’s going to take some
courage on your part but we look for a bruised Bruins bounce-back tonight.
Bowling Green over WYOMING by 1
Have you checked out Wyoming’s logo this season? Not only has the cowboy
been bucked off his ride, he’s hobbling around on crutches. Wyoming has
been all hat and no cattle in ‘08, winning a pair of games against mediocre
opposition by just 1 and 3 points. They’ve also been emasculated in their two
losses by a brutal 67-3 margin and may have 6th-year coach Joe Glenn riding
the proverbial hot-seat. Laramie will be no easy venue for the BeeGees; the
Cowboys are 9-3 SU in their last dozen on the high plains. They’re also a mindboggling
0-11-1 in their 12 games – a number we’d love to use if Bowling
Green wasn’t 0-3 ITS so far in ’08. This will be the Falcons’ second consecutive
game at high altitude (Boise State two weeks ago) but perhaps a week of rest
can help them iron out some serious kinks. Given Wyoming’s current state of
disintegration, a loss would come as no surprise but can we really trust the
Falcons to cover the hook? If you told a friend you were playing this game,
you’d probably get a ‘you should be in a clinic’ look.
Oregon over WASHINGTON ST by 19
With both teams hobbled by quarterback problems (Ducks have lost their
starter to injury in 5 of their last 8 games), we must withdraw to the stacks for
insight. And the magic eight-ball says… Oregon. Check these ATS credentials: 5-
0 as PAC 10 road chalk of 12 or more points, 3-0 off a SU favorite loss, 5-1 versus
a conference opponent with revenge and 10-2 before USC. Wow! Our Captain
Obvious Award of the week goes to WSU coach Paul Wulff when his Cougars
beat 1-AA Portland State 48-9 – after being annihilated in their three previous
games by 150-33: “This team is taking steps. It’s maybe not as fast as we want,
but it is.” That sort of coaching acumen usually points us in the direction of the
opponent but there’s a problem: the magic eight-ball said Oregon by 19 and
that’s real close to the line. We may revisit this later in the week.
S CAROLINA over Uab by 21
Poor Steve Spurrier. A head coach who was spoiled by quality, precision athletes
at Florida must now battle weekly to get anything out of his ragtag South
Carolina offense. Sad to say but the not-so-game Cocks actually struggled last
week with 1-AA Wofford before subduing the Terriers 23-13 (a game Spurrier
would have won 52-3 at Gainesville). The ol’ ball coach is laying a lot today
for someone with a 9-17-1 ATS record as chalk off a win when teeing it up
against a non-SEC foe off a win. That could work with UAB’s 9-4 ATS mark as
a double-digit dog versus an opponent off a win but the Blazers have been in
a downward spiral since Watson Brown’s last year. They’re just 6-17 SU since
the start of 2006 – with two of those wins coming against unlined teams – and
simply don’t have the livestock to compete at this level. Even so, we’re not
risking any hard-earned money on a Gamecock team favored by three TDs
when they’ve managed just 15.7 PPG in their last three outings. Nope!
TEXAS A&M over Army by 24
Aggies have got a long way to go after making Miami Fla look like the
Hurricanes of old in a disappointing 41-23 loss at College Station last Saturday.
New Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman has taken his lumps, opening 1-2 while
juggling quarterbacks on the way to the Big 12 South cellar. Fortunately for
Sherman, help has arrived in the form of an even more hapless outfi t, the
Army Black Knights. But while we’re convinced the Aggies can bag the SU win,
they’re certainly no lock to get the money. A&M faced off with the Cadets in
2006 as 27-point favorites and barely escaped with a 28-24 win. These Cadets
may not be much but double-digit military dogs off a loss are an outstanding
90-65-3 ATS, including 40-23 when battling a foe also off a loss. Still, Army’s
normally reliable ground offense has been held to single-digit scoring in two of
three games (no TDs in seven straight quarters), a fact that puts us right back
on the fence. Your call.
BALL ST over Kent St by 15
How ‘bout them ‘Nads? They’re currently the toast of the MAC, the league’s
only unbeaten team and owners of a lethal offense that has infl icted doubledigit
beatings on all four of this season’s opponents. Last week’s 42-20 rout of
Indiana was the fi rst win ever for the Cards against a BCS-conference team,
impressive enough to force the linemaker to make BSU a double-digit favorite
this Saturday for just the 3rd time in the last 53 games. Granted, the Testicular
Ones will miss fallen WR Dante Love but they still rolled up 463 yards against the
Hoosiers and should damage a Golden Gashes defense that got ripped for 677
yards and 44 points versus UL-Lafayette. However, we think the number’s a bit
infl ated, especially with Ball State cast in the unprofi table role of Homecoming
favorite – and coming off a big revenge win over in-state rival Indiana. With
Kent State owning a 10-2 ATS record as road dogs of less than 20 points with
revenge, the pendulum starts to reverse direction. We do love our ‘Nads but
not at this price. Later, boys.
South Florida over NC STATE by 7
The Wolfpack used up a season’s worth of emotion in last week’s electrifying
overtime win over East Carolina at Raleigh. NC State fans that were wondering
if the Tom O’Brien hire would ever produce dividends must have breathed a
huge sigh of relief following the 30-24 Wolfpack win. They may fi nd themselves
gasping for breath today when State butts heads with the Bulls of South Florida
(3-0 ATS vs. ACC foes). USF sleepwalked through a weak 17-9 win over woeful
Florida International last Saturday so you can bet the coaches will clamp down
and demand greater intensity for this tough road game. State does have one
solid stat in its favor: entering this season, home underdogs off a SU overtime
win are 27-17 ATS. We have great respect for the USF program but State could
ride the home crowd to another cover here.
Florida State over Colorado by 6
Sure wish we hadn’t already handed out the Caption Obvious Award. Try out
this gem from Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden after his Seminoles lost
SEVEN turnovers in a brutal 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest: “We’re not where
I hoped we would be.” Guess what? Things might not improve real soon. Fresh
off a confi dence-builder over West Virginia, the Buffs carry a 5-1 ATS mark into
Jacksonville when playing off a SU home dog win. No need to worry about a
Colorado look-ahead to Texas; the Buffaloes have cashed eight of nine tries
before taking on the Longhorns. The dazed Seminoles are 0-4 ATS lately after
playing Wake and own a poor 1-5 ATS mark off an ACC opponent when taking
on a non-league opponent. The site should provide a major edge for FSU in
terms of fan support, the main reason we’re calling for a fi nal so close to the
current number.
led Boston College 7-3 at halftime last week, then were
trampled underfoot by a 31-point second-half outburst by the Eagles. Poor
play at quarterback and a rash of missed fi eld goals doomed UCF, not good
news for a squad that’s only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 tries as a road favorite.
George O’Leary’s Knights beat the Miners last season, 36-20, as 21-point home
favorites – making the current 4-5 point line look mighty tempting. That’s when
the PLAYBOOK database warns us UTEP is a solid 6-2 ATS recently as a home
underdog. Sure, the Miners aren’t much but they did outgain mighty Texas in a
loss here three weeks ago. Close call.
New Mexico over NEW MEXICO ST by 1
Lobos must have still been reading the press clippings from their stirring 36-
28 home shocker over Arizona when they took the fi eld against Tulsa last
Saturday. Thirty minutes later, the Golden Hurricane had blown New Mexico
off the fi eld by a 35-0 score. Tulsa fi nished with 606 total yards of offense and
scored touchdowns on fi ve of its six fi rst-half possessions. Thankfully for UNM
coach Rocky Long, he gets to take on an opponent he’s beaten fi ve consecutive
times. But this little beauty from the PLAYBOOK database puts us on Hal
Mumme’s Aggies: home teams in Game Three are 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS vs.
sub .500 foes playing Game Five, including 7-0 ATS if the host is off a loss. With
State gradually closing the gap between these two enemy programs, look for
the Aggies to improve to 6-0-1 ATS in Game Three of a season by nabbing the
cover here.
SAN DIEGO ST over Idaho by 13
These sure are some sporadic Spuds. Idaho has gone 2-2 so far ITS this year
but those two stat losses were by an ungodly 409 and 309 yards. How bad
are the Vandals? So bad that we like a San Diego State team that’s averaging
just 34.7 yards rushing per game (#118) to bring home the pointspread bacon
against the Tater Heads. Aztecs play their best off a bye week, covering 10 of 13
opportunities, a number that tightens to 8-1 if they’re off back-to-back losses
(SDSU 0-3 in ’08). Any team that gives up 42 points to lowly Utah State like the
spud-boys did last week can’t be trusted at any price.
UNLV over Nevada by 3
Surprising Rebels (2-win season each of the previous four years) have started
3-1 for the fi rst time since 2003. They followed their huge upset of Arizona
State with a tense 34-31 win over Iowa State, their second consecutive overtime
victory. Vegas hasn’t slowed down the Wolf Pack lately, though, dropping three
in a row both SU and ATS. Nevada won last year’s meeting 27-20 but the loss of
star RB Luke Lippincott (broken leg against Texas Tech on 9/6) is a major blow
for the Reno Wolves. We’re going to pass here so if you plan on playing this
Silver State battle, you’ll have to pick your poison.
San Jose St over HAWAII by 1
Spartans got shoved around by more physical Stanford last week but will have
no such problem here: Hawaii has gone from being an undefeated BCS bowl
squad to a WAC punching bag in record time. SJSU coach Dick Tomey has come
up empty in three cracks at the Warriors but this could be his breakthrough
opportunity. The Islanders are just 4-8 ATS in the series, including a sad 1-5 mark
off a SU loss, and their offense has declined to the point where the defense is
spending far too many minutes on the fi eld. We’ll take the better team with
the better coach – and as many points as we can scrape up by game time.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY over W Kentucky by 25
On paper this is a much bigger game for the new kids on the block from
Bowling Green than it is for the Lexington Cats. The little schools always bring
all they’ve got against their brethren (witness Ohio U at Ohio State earlier this
season). With Alabama on deck (0-4 ATS in games before the Tide), Kentucky
could be in a prime look-ahead spot. However, in deference to the SMART BOX,
we’ll ditch those ideas and instead ignore the Hilltoppers.
MEMPHIS over Arkansas St by 3
The Red Wolves have been a pleasant surprise this season and look to be in
position to challenge Florida Atlantic for Sun Belt honors. Before buying a ride
on the Red Wolf express, though, be advised Memphis has played much better
than its 1-3 record would indicate. The fact of the matter is the Tigers are 4-0 In
the Stats this season. They also enter today’s fray with a dose of double revenge
against ASU. With a Louisiana Monroe revenge affair up next for the Wolves,
we’ll run with the Tigers in this four-legged special.
OKLAHOMA ST over Troy by 18
Hats off to the Trojans. Not only did they manage to outstat Ohio State in
Columbus last week, they are also 17-6 SU in their last 23 games. Hence, a 5-1
ATS log as dogs of 24 or less points when squaring off against .666 or greater
opposition. The question today, though, is whether or not a letdown is in
order? In the Cowboys they take on a team that has bagged the cash in 10 of
its last 12 tries as a non-conference favorite of 13 or more points. If a string of
three straight Big 12 revenge games weren’t on tap, we’d consider snapping
the rubberband with this offensive juggernaut.
TOLEDO over Florida Int’l by 16
Holy Toledo, what a contest the Rockets were involved in last week. A 55-54
overtime loss to Fresno, on this fi eld, was determined when Tom Amstutz
decided to pull a ‘Shanahan’ and go-for-two to win the game in the 2nd OT.
Now they become a non-desirous home favorite off an overtime loss with a
Ball State revenge game up next. While FIU isn’t much, they did battle USF
tooth-n-nail in the debut of their new home stadium last week and could be in
a letdown mode themselves. No interest either way here.
KANSAS ST over UL-Lafayette by 21
Another paycheck game but then aren’t all non conference Sun Belt games for
the love of the money? The thinking here is the Wildcats likely have bigger fi sh
to fry next week (Texas Tech). Next thought is the Ragin’ Cajuns are a nifty 6-3
ATS against the Big 12. The fi nal thinking is KSU is 7-1 ATS at home versus an
opponent off a double-digit victory. The bottom line is we suppose we’ll pass.
RICE over North Texas by 19
Rotten numbers abound on both sides of the ball in this stinker. The not-so
Mean Green are 2-9 ATS as non-conference pups off a loss and 1-5 ATS as wellrested
dogs. The soggy Krispies have no snap, crackle or pop either as they are
1-9 ATS as chalk off a non-conference game when taking on a foe off a loss;
1-6 SU and ATS in their last 7 tries as a favorite; and are a not-so-glamorous
13-33 SU record in their last 46 games. We’re not interested whatsoever in this
scrabble match.
WRITE-IN GAME
TEXAS over Arkansas by 24
The Hogs were taken back behind the shed and whupped-up at home by
Alabama in a red-faced 35-point loss last week while Texas trounced Rice by 42
points in preparation for this Hurricane Ike makeup. According to our history
book, Arkansas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last four games in this series while the
visiting team is a super-sharp 9-1-1 ATS the last 10 games. Considering that,
since 1980, the largest line in this series has been 13.5 points (two times) and
that the underdog won both of those affairs STRAIGHT-UP, you’d have to hogtie
us to keep us from taking the points.
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LOGICAL APPROACH
2008 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HAWAII - 3 over San Jose State- After stepping up in class and being blown out by Florida and Oregon State - both on the road - Hawaii opens WAC play against San Jose State, a team they have had great success against over the years. Hawaii is clearly down from last season when they were unbeaten until crushed by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They had a Bye last week and will be fresh for this contest against a team coach by ex-Hawaii coach Dick Tomey. San Jose has lost79 straight to Hawaii. Their last 4 trips to the islands have resulted in Hawaii wins by 37, 18, 9 and 24 points. This is still an intimidating place to play and Hawaii's rough experience against tougher teams will have them primed for this contest in which they still have the superior athletes. Hawaii wins 41-24.
Other Featured College Selections
Virginia + 7 over DUKE- It's clear that the fortunes of both programs are changing as Duke is improved under first season coach Cutcliffe while Virginia is in decline after winning so many close games last season that could easily have turned their 9-4 season into a losing campaign had some of those close games gone the other way. Still, Virginia has the much greater talent and is an underdog in this series for the first time since 1988 (when the Cavs did cover). Virginia lost one sided games to USC and Uconn, sandwiched around a win over I-AA/FCS Richmond. Duke has beaten I-AA/FCS James Madison and Navy sandwiched around a home loss to Northwestern. This is the ACC opener for both teams and although Duke seemingly enjoys a huge statistical edge, the quality of competition must be considered. Duke has significant concerns on defense that the heretofore struggling Virginia offense should exploit. Both teams are off of Byes and while it is acknowledged that Duke is not the patsy of seasons past, Virginia has won the last 8 games in the annual series, 7 of which have been by double digits. This one is closer but Virginia wins again, 23-17.
MICHIGAN + 6 ½ over Wisconsin- Both teams are off of Bye weeks as they open Big 10 play. Michigan has clearly struggled in dropping 2 of their first 3 games under new coach Rodriguez, although the defense has played well, especially against the run. Wisconsin is unbeaten and is favored over Michigan for the first time in at least 30 years! And they are not just favored, but favored in Ann Arbor. Michigan still has some very talented athletes and this is the Big House where Michigan is rarely an underdog. In fact, Michigan has been a home underdog just 4 times in the past decade and 2 of those were against arch rival Ohio State. In their other two home underdog games, the Wolverines upset Penn State twice - last season and in 1998. UM is playing with revenge for a 37-21 loss at Wisconsin last season. Wisky has beaten Michigan twice in the past 3 seasons, both at home. Asking Wisconsin to upset Michigan at the Big House is not that far fetched given the fortunes of both teams this season. But EXPECTING them to do so by making them favorites, especially close to a TD, IS something of a stretch. This game goes to the wire. Wisconsin wins but by just 23-20.
Nevada Reno + 4 over UNLV- UNLV seems to have turned the corner for beleaguered coach Mike Sanford who had won just 2 games in each of his first 3 seasons. Already the Rebels are 3-1 following a pair of wins over BCS teams Arizona State and Iowa State. Both wins were by 3 points in overtime and the games were draining experiences, especially the Iowa State win in which UNLV led 21-0 at the half and then allowed ISU to tie the game at the end of regulation following a 98 yard drive. Nevada is rested for this annual rivalry game in which the Wolfpack have won the last 3. Nevada has played a very tough early schedule, losing one sided contests to a pair of Top Ten teams, Texas Tech and Missouri which followed a one sided win over I-AA/FCS Grambling to open the season. The talent gap between the teams has narrowed and UNLV is not making the mistakes that have doomed them in recent seasons. Still, this is a well coached Nevada team that places great emphasis on beating their downstate rival. Nevada coach Ault has a history of success in his multiple tenures and relishes being the underdog this season. Nevada wins 28-24.
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 7 over Atlanta-It's been a nice start for Atlanta in what is a season of rebuilding and their two wins in three games has to give the young Falcons great confidence. But those wins came against inept Detroit and Kansas City and both were at home. Rookie QB Ryan struggled in his lone road start at Tampa Bay. Carolina is a legitimate Playoff caliber team and should find Atlanta's defense much more yielding than the Minnesota defense they faced last week. The Panthers will also be focused and motivated to atone for back to back losses on this field to Atlanta the past two seasons. The offense should continue to improve with WR Smith back for a second straight week following his suspension. Carolina has faced a much tougher early schedule and has the much better defense. Look for that defense to confuse the Falcons and their rookie QB, focusing on taking away Atlanta's fine running game and forcing QB Ryan into mistakes. Carolina wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
KANSAS CITY + 9 over Denver-Denver is unbeaten through three games largely sue to their offense. In their last two games against San Diego and New Orleans, the defense was unable to protect huge early leads and that nearly cost them two wins. Kansas City is one of the weakest teams in the league and unlikely to show much improvement in the short term, turning to untested QB Tyler Thigpen to lead the offense. But the Chiefs have always enjoyed a strong home field and have defeated the Broncos in 7 of their last 9 meetings on this field.Denver has come close to losing each of their last two games - both at home - but the wins have served to inflate the line here. KC does have problems on offense although the running game did emerge last week. Denver is allowing 425 yards per game and now plays in a very hostile environment. This is the NFL and an outright upset would not be a shock. Still, Denver finds a way to win yet another close game. Denver wins but by just 20-17.
NEW ORLEANS - 6 over San Francisco- The 49ers have won two in a row while the Saints have dropped their last two. San Francisco's offense seems much improved under offensive coordinator Mike Martz and gets to face another team with defensive deficiencies. But the Saints are dropping in class after starting the season against a pair of Playoff teams from last season and much improved Denver. This becomes a game of need for New Orleans to avoid a 1-3 start and they have the more mature offense and a defense that should match up well against the 49ers' offense. The teams are meeting for a third straight season and the Saints have won the last two meetings by nearly identical 31-10 and 34-10 scores. San Francisco has narrowed the gap and the Saints have been hit by injuries to their receiving corps including TE Shockey. But the Saints have depth on offense and an improving defense and catch the 49ers still in the early stages of learning the Martz offense. The familiarity that existed last week for the 49ers against Detroit does not exist here. New Orleans puts forth their best effort of the early season this week. New Orleans wins 34-17.
Washington + 11 ½ over DALLAS- This is another long time bitter Divisional rivalry. Washington has fared well against the Cowboys of late, covering 5 of the last 6 meetings with 4 straight up wins. This is only the third time in the past decade that there's been a double digit point spread between these teams. The Underdog has covered the two previous such games and Washington''s new offense is steadily showing improvement. It's hard to find fault with anything Dallas has done this season in starting 3-0 although there are still some concerns on defense. Washington is a physical team and that could work to wear down the Cowboys in the second half, meaning the 'Skins could put points on the board when trailing by a couple of touchdowns. But much more likely is a competitively played game from the start, with the running game of Washington keeping the Dallas defense on the field for long stretches. The offense is gaining more confidence each week and the series history suggests this gets decided late. Dallas wins but by just 27-20.
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2008 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HAWAII - 3 over San Jose State- After stepping up in class and being blown out by Florida and Oregon State - both on the road - Hawaii opens WAC play against San Jose State, a team they have had great success against over the years. Hawaii is clearly down from last season when they were unbeaten until crushed by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They had a Bye last week and will be fresh for this contest against a team coach by ex-Hawaii coach Dick Tomey. San Jose has lost79 straight to Hawaii. Their last 4 trips to the islands have resulted in Hawaii wins by 37, 18, 9 and 24 points. This is still an intimidating place to play and Hawaii's rough experience against tougher teams will have them primed for this contest in which they still have the superior athletes. Hawaii wins 41-24.
Other Featured College Selections
Virginia + 7 over DUKE- It's clear that the fortunes of both programs are changing as Duke is improved under first season coach Cutcliffe while Virginia is in decline after winning so many close games last season that could easily have turned their 9-4 season into a losing campaign had some of those close games gone the other way. Still, Virginia has the much greater talent and is an underdog in this series for the first time since 1988 (when the Cavs did cover). Virginia lost one sided games to USC and Uconn, sandwiched around a win over I-AA/FCS Richmond. Duke has beaten I-AA/FCS James Madison and Navy sandwiched around a home loss to Northwestern. This is the ACC opener for both teams and although Duke seemingly enjoys a huge statistical edge, the quality of competition must be considered. Duke has significant concerns on defense that the heretofore struggling Virginia offense should exploit. Both teams are off of Byes and while it is acknowledged that Duke is not the patsy of seasons past, Virginia has won the last 8 games in the annual series, 7 of which have been by double digits. This one is closer but Virginia wins again, 23-17.
MICHIGAN + 6 ½ over Wisconsin- Both teams are off of Bye weeks as they open Big 10 play. Michigan has clearly struggled in dropping 2 of their first 3 games under new coach Rodriguez, although the defense has played well, especially against the run. Wisconsin is unbeaten and is favored over Michigan for the first time in at least 30 years! And they are not just favored, but favored in Ann Arbor. Michigan still has some very talented athletes and this is the Big House where Michigan is rarely an underdog. In fact, Michigan has been a home underdog just 4 times in the past decade and 2 of those were against arch rival Ohio State. In their other two home underdog games, the Wolverines upset Penn State twice - last season and in 1998. UM is playing with revenge for a 37-21 loss at Wisconsin last season. Wisky has beaten Michigan twice in the past 3 seasons, both at home. Asking Wisconsin to upset Michigan at the Big House is not that far fetched given the fortunes of both teams this season. But EXPECTING them to do so by making them favorites, especially close to a TD, IS something of a stretch. This game goes to the wire. Wisconsin wins but by just 23-20.
Nevada Reno + 4 over UNLV- UNLV seems to have turned the corner for beleaguered coach Mike Sanford who had won just 2 games in each of his first 3 seasons. Already the Rebels are 3-1 following a pair of wins over BCS teams Arizona State and Iowa State. Both wins were by 3 points in overtime and the games were draining experiences, especially the Iowa State win in which UNLV led 21-0 at the half and then allowed ISU to tie the game at the end of regulation following a 98 yard drive. Nevada is rested for this annual rivalry game in which the Wolfpack have won the last 3. Nevada has played a very tough early schedule, losing one sided contests to a pair of Top Ten teams, Texas Tech and Missouri which followed a one sided win over I-AA/FCS Grambling to open the season. The talent gap between the teams has narrowed and UNLV is not making the mistakes that have doomed them in recent seasons. Still, this is a well coached Nevada team that places great emphasis on beating their downstate rival. Nevada coach Ault has a history of success in his multiple tenures and relishes being the underdog this season. Nevada wins 28-24.
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 7 over Atlanta-It's been a nice start for Atlanta in what is a season of rebuilding and their two wins in three games has to give the young Falcons great confidence. But those wins came against inept Detroit and Kansas City and both were at home. Rookie QB Ryan struggled in his lone road start at Tampa Bay. Carolina is a legitimate Playoff caliber team and should find Atlanta's defense much more yielding than the Minnesota defense they faced last week. The Panthers will also be focused and motivated to atone for back to back losses on this field to Atlanta the past two seasons. The offense should continue to improve with WR Smith back for a second straight week following his suspension. Carolina has faced a much tougher early schedule and has the much better defense. Look for that defense to confuse the Falcons and their rookie QB, focusing on taking away Atlanta's fine running game and forcing QB Ryan into mistakes. Carolina wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
KANSAS CITY + 9 over Denver-Denver is unbeaten through three games largely sue to their offense. In their last two games against San Diego and New Orleans, the defense was unable to protect huge early leads and that nearly cost them two wins. Kansas City is one of the weakest teams in the league and unlikely to show much improvement in the short term, turning to untested QB Tyler Thigpen to lead the offense. But the Chiefs have always enjoyed a strong home field and have defeated the Broncos in 7 of their last 9 meetings on this field.Denver has come close to losing each of their last two games - both at home - but the wins have served to inflate the line here. KC does have problems on offense although the running game did emerge last week. Denver is allowing 425 yards per game and now plays in a very hostile environment. This is the NFL and an outright upset would not be a shock. Still, Denver finds a way to win yet another close game. Denver wins but by just 20-17.
NEW ORLEANS - 6 over San Francisco- The 49ers have won two in a row while the Saints have dropped their last two. San Francisco's offense seems much improved under offensive coordinator Mike Martz and gets to face another team with defensive deficiencies. But the Saints are dropping in class after starting the season against a pair of Playoff teams from last season and much improved Denver. This becomes a game of need for New Orleans to avoid a 1-3 start and they have the more mature offense and a defense that should match up well against the 49ers' offense. The teams are meeting for a third straight season and the Saints have won the last two meetings by nearly identical 31-10 and 34-10 scores. San Francisco has narrowed the gap and the Saints have been hit by injuries to their receiving corps including TE Shockey. But the Saints have depth on offense and an improving defense and catch the 49ers still in the early stages of learning the Martz offense. The familiarity that existed last week for the 49ers against Detroit does not exist here. New Orleans puts forth their best effort of the early season this week. New Orleans wins 34-17.
Washington + 11 ½ over DALLAS- This is another long time bitter Divisional rivalry. Washington has fared well against the Cowboys of late, covering 5 of the last 6 meetings with 4 straight up wins. This is only the third time in the past decade that there's been a double digit point spread between these teams. The Underdog has covered the two previous such games and Washington''s new offense is steadily showing improvement. It's hard to find fault with anything Dallas has done this season in starting 3-0 although there are still some concerns on defense. Washington is a physical team and that could work to wear down the Cowboys in the second half, meaning the 'Skins could put points on the board when trailing by a couple of touchdowns. But much more likely is a competitively played game from the start, with the running game of Washington keeping the Dallas defense on the field for long stretches. The offense is gaining more confidence each week and the series history suggests this gets decided late. Dallas wins but by just 27-20.
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KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX
NCAA (ES 2-1) (DF 3-0) (KO 5-4) (MB 1-4)
Saturday, September 27th, 2008
Marshall (+15½) over @West Virginia
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Who would have thought Rich Rodriguez'
departure would have affected the Mountaineer
air attack more than their ground game?
Despite not being known as a good passing
quarterback Pat White managed to notch 9.2
and 8.0 yards per attempt the last two
seasons. In three games so far in 2008 White
has gained just 5.0 yards per attempt and that
includes a 48-21 win over FCS squad Villanova.
Over the summer new head man Bill Stewart
and his offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen talked
up the need for more offensive balance in
Morgantown by throwing the ball more. After
poor results in the first two games the plan
was junked and last week against Colorado
White and RB Noel Divine combined for 281
yards on 45 carries. White threw the ball just
15 times for an anemic 43 yards. Still, even the
ground game is down a notch in 2008. Last
season White and Devine combined to gain 7.4
yards per carry, and this season that number is
down to 6.1 ypc.
My best tech system on this game is not a play
against West Virginia, but a play on Marshall. It
is a 154-81 ATS cross-season bounceback
system. Marshall qualifies because of their 3-1
record off a dismal 3-9 mark in 2007. This
system is already 4-1 ATS this season,
including a 48-7 win last week on TCU over
SMU.
When Rich Rodriguez left for Ann Arbor assistant Bill
Stewart took the helm and led the Mountaineers
over Oklahoma 48-28 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a
prime example of what I call the "Altobelli
Syndrome". That happens when an iconic head
coach leaves a program and the players try to prove
to themselves and the world that they were the
reason for the team's success and not the coach.
The Baltimore Orioles won the World Series in 1983
with coach Joe Altobelli after the legendary Earl
Weaver retired. Then the inevitable decline set in
and Altobelli was fired in May 1985. That decline has
started for the Mountaineers, and the betting public
has yet to catch up. Take the points. West Virginia
by 7.
Northwestern (+7½) over @Iowa
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
I like the look of this Northwestern team under
young head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They returned 16
starters and 47 lettermen from a team that won 6
games last season. They had to get used to new
systems on both sides of the ball, but have had 4
games against a fair even if non-intimidating
schedule to get used to those systems. I especially
liked Fitzgerald’s hire of Mike Hankwitz as the
defensive coordinator. Hankwitz has held the same
role at Texas A&M and most recently Wisconsin, and
always seems to field a quality unit on that side of
the ball. He has a surprising amount of talent (by
NW standards) to work with this season and the
results have been good so far at 11 points per game
and 282ypg. The key to the offense is senior RB
Tyrell Sutton who suffered a leg injury against Ohio
U this weekend, but was in street clothes on the
sideline after the game, and both he and teammates
say he will be fine. Check Sutton’s status for sure,
but we will continue under the assumption he will be
starting for NW. As I said above they haven’t faced the nation’s
toughest schedule thus far, but it hasn’t been the
nation’s worst either, as the 24-20 win at improving
Duke is far more impressive than it’s been in a long
while, and Ohio U gave Ohio St. a scare at the
Horseshoe. Also, the Southern Illinois team that the
Wildcats ran through was one of the nation’s top 5
1AA teams last season, and rated one of the top 15
this season by the Dunkel Index. The Wildcats are a
very business-like 4-0. Last season they won 3
conference games, only one less than today’s
opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes. However, it must be
noted that Iowa did not play either Michigan or Ohio
St. last season while Northwestern played both.
Northwestern was outyarded by 23 per game in Big
10 affairs while Iowa was outyarded by 89 per game
against the far weaker conference schedule. With
similar returnee numbers (slight advantage to
Northwestern) and a small overall talent edge to
Iowa, I actually have these teams rated very close
to equal, making this line look about 4 points too
high. The Hawkeyes have played the toughest opponent
of either of these teams so far, losing by 1 at
Pittsburgh this past week. However, the rest of
their schedule has been cupcake city, and they have
really beaten up on some weak offensive clubs.
After being a cash cow as home chalk from 2001-
2005, Kirk Ferentz is only 3-7 ATS in that role since.
This line is too high based on the names and
histories of these two clubs. Take the points with
the under-the-radar Wildcats. Iowa by only 3
Mississippi (+23) over @Florida
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Going against Florida cost us on these pages last
week, but we have no hesitation in doing it once
again in this spot. Based on scheduling dynamics
and recent results, this looks like a prime spot to
fade Florida. The Gators enter off a spotlight win
over SEC rival Tennessee, a game in which they had
an extra week to prepare. But it wasn’t the typical
big number Florida win. The Gators managed only
243 total yards with quarterback Tim Tebow
completing 8 of 15 passes for 96 yards. And off the
win we have to consider their previous history under
head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last four years,
Meyer has had Florida geared-up off their bye going
4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread. But
things are not so easy in their following game with
the Gators going 2-1 straight-up and 0-3 against the
spread. The two wins came by only 6 and 7 points.
In games following Florida’s two biggest rivals,
Tennessee and Georgia, Meyer’s Gators are just 1-5
against the spread with their average win coming by
14.3 points per game. Those two situations
certainly indicate negative coaching spread patterns
on Meyer heading into this game.
Ole Miss is in their first year under head coach
Houston Nutt. And he stepped into a pretty good
situation in Oxford, getting a very talented team that
just needed some good coaching. Things started off
nicely with a smashing of Memphis in their opener.
They then followed that with a near miss at Wake
Forest, rebounded by stomping Samford, and lost a
tough one last week to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss
dominated the game despite the loss, allowing only
11 first downs on 202 total yards and just 3.8 yards
per play. What did Ole Miss in was quarterback
Jevan Snead who threw 4 interceptions, which
basically handed Vandy the win. The Rebels played
a sloppy game overall with six turnovers and seven
costly penalties. Snead is a very good QB, and off
his worst performance, he’ll bounce back and keep
Ole Miss competitive here. Nutt and defensive
coordinator Tyrone Nix (DC at South Carolina) have
coached in the SEC for awhile so they know what to
expect in conference play, and that experience
cannot be overlooked.
With Florida off the huge Tennessee win, and Ole Miss off
a home loss, the Gators may not take the Rebels too
seriously. And that would be a huge mistake because
Florida had all kinds of trouble with them in the same exact
situation last year. The only difference (albeit a big one) is
that this game will be played in The Swamp. Ole Miss
actually should have won last year’s game, but came up 6
points short in their 30-24 loss. Last year’s experience
should give them confidence that they can hang with
Florida, and Nutt’s presence should give them more of a
chance. Taking over 3 touchdowns with a much improved
Ole Miss club off a home favorite loss is the way to go,
especially when we consider the negative indicators on the
host’s coach. Florida by only 17.
Alabama (+6½) over @Georgia
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Attractive game between a pair of teams who beat
up on overmatched opponents on Saturday.
Georgia has an incredible schedule, and a nearly
endless series of big games on tap. Georgia and the
20,000 fans they brought to Tempe were ready for
the Arizona State game and dominated, and there’s
no question that they had big edges in athleticism
and depth over the Sun Devils. Among Georgia
people there was tons of hype for that game
throughout the offseason. Obviously with ASU’s loss
to UNLV the week before it was not as intense as it
could have been, but this is still the third
consecutive big game for Georgia. Knowing that he’s
going to need to pull out all the stops to motivate
his team through their vicious schedule, Marc Richt
is pulling out the black shirts for this one. That
worked last year when they were a surprise for the
Auburn game, and worked again in the Sugar Bowl.
Alabama is off of an absolute whipping of Arkansas. And
while Arkansas is down, 35-7 at the half, with a full game
rushing yardage edge of 328-92 are nice aspects of a win.
The clunker that Bama threw in against Tulane following
their rampage over Clemson is helpful here, as it gives Nick
Saban a effective warning for his club on not believing the
hype after a big game. And this is a very big game. In
Matthew Stafford and John Parker Wilson, you’ve got a pair
of quality veteran quarterbacks. And they have possibly
the two best true freshman WR’s in the country to throw
to, in Georgia’s AJ Green (8 catches for 158 yards in
Tempe) and Alabama’s Julio Jones.
But what has us taking the points here is the play on
the line of scrimmage. Already young, Georgia has
lost some horses on their offensive front. They’re
well coached up there, but those injuries have
caused a shuffling in their lineup that didn’t matter against
Arizona State, but should matter against a Bama team with
a rock-ribbed defensive line. Nose tackle Terrence Cody is
an absolute beast, going 360 pounds and forcing Arkansas
to offer double team help to their center, Rimington Award
candidate Jonathan Luigs. After playing up the
summertime conventional wisdom that Bama actually
lacked defensive depth, Saban must be laughing now, as
their defense has waves of players. And Saban is one of
the best defensive game planners around, important to
have considering Georgia’s skill position weaponry.
Nobody has had any better luck with injuries than the
Crimson Tide. They’re as completely healthy as a team
could possibly be for their fifth game of the campaign.
Bama’s Arkansas walkover had a morning starting time in
the Central Time Zone, and they were back in Tuscaloosa
in time to watch Georgia’s win in the desert. The Bulldogs
flew a redeye back to Atlanta, and then bused out to
Athens. Obviously there’s time to recover, but will that all
nighter catch up to the Dawgs late in the 4th quarter?
There are some intangibles that favor Alabama, though of
course the UGA crowd will be revved up for this prime time
affair. But the depth of talent that Bama has defensively
is remarkable, and the concerns for UGA’s offensive line
are warranted. This looks like one of your last chances to
take substantial points with Bama for a long time. Could
go either way, and we’ll call it Bama by 1.
South Florida (-8) over @NC State
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
South Florida was in a tough spot last week, and the
fact that they laid an egg is not all that surprising.
Two weeks back, the Bulls hosted Kansas in a Friday
night spotlight game. They were down by 10 points
at the half, but scored 17 points in the 3rd quarter,
and then struck quickly in the 4th to take a 14 point
lead. But then the Bulls needed to dig down again
after Kansas tied the score at 34 with just over five
minutes to play. South Florida eventually pulled out
a 37-34 on a last play field goal, but the game left
them drained. And they suffered a huge hangover
last week at Florida International and the
unimpressive 17-9 win definitely raised a few
eyebrows. But South Florida has some excuses. First, and
most relevant, is how the game described above
played out. Second, the Bulls were playing the
worst team in major college football. The FIU
Golden Panthers owned just one win in their last 26
games coming in, so to expect any focus from the
Bulls was simply not going to happen. “I think we
were thinking a little bit ahead,” South Florida
quarterback Matt Grothe said. “Luckily we won that
game. It was a little scary.” And this game was also
on the day of the big grand opening of FIU’s brand
new on-campus stadium, which was a huge day for
the school and football program. They were going
to show up; this was their Super Bowl, especially
against an in-state opponent ranked # 12. “We
really, really played with everything we had,” FIU
coach Mario Cristobal said. So everything adds up
perfectly to draw a line through the game and forget
the results because South Florida basically just
showed up and went through the motions. And with
head coach Jim Leavitt saying, “We played about as
bad as we could have played, I don’t see how we
could have played worse,” look for his team to play
60 minutes of football here. NC State enters off an upset
win over one in-state foe East
Carolina. It was fitting that the game went to overtime
because the stats were dead even (literally). But it was
still the first game this year in which NC State actually
scored a touchdown against a real opponent after getting
shutdown against South Carolina and Clemson. And South
Florida’s defense is just as good if not better than those
two so look for State’s offensive troubles to comeback in
this game. And this comment by head coach Tom O’Brien
makes me believe that his team may bounce off last
week’s win: “They listen to the trash about how they can’t
score and how they’ve been scoreless for so many halves
(against FBS teams),” O’Brien said. “It bothers our young
guys. Our veterans are more used to it and don’t take it to
heart. This win got the weight off their shoulders and
showed them how it feels to win a big game.” So we have
two teams entering off wins, but South Florida is looking to
play much better while NC State is satisfied because they
finally scored a touchdown. The better team will be
extremely focused here and stretches out to a comfortable
win. South Florida by 14.
Colorado (+6) over Florida State
@Jacksonville, Florida
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Not buying into the “Florida State hype” was one of
my few exhibitions of wisdom on Saturday. You
may not have noticed the Seminoles on Saturday, as
Georgia/Arizona State and LSU/Auburn were
certainly more attractive games, but FSU’s offense
was horrendous. FSU turned the ball over 7 times,
but it wasn’t a case of them marching up and down
the field only to have turnovers kill them. The
Seminoles gained only 230 yards on 64 plays (yep,
that is, in fact, only 3.6 yards per play. Wasn’t Jimbo
Fisher supposed to solve all these problems?) Their
offensive design continues to be dreadful, and they
just aren’t a heady group. FSU has a lot of speed,
and it works well on defense, but they’re going to
have to score some points to get this cover and
where is that coming from? Colorado is used to
facing athletic teams from the Big 12 (and West
Virginia, who they beat on Thursday night), and
they won’t be intimidated.
Dan Hawkins son Cody is the quarterback for the
Buffs. He’s improved this season, completing 70%
of his attempts with 6 TD’s and 3 INT’s. Colorado
is a program that’s really coming together. Talent
has never been in short supply in Boulder, but a ton
of off-field problems predated Coach Hawkins’
arrival. And he had to win the team over. But it
appears that he has. After the upset win over West
Virginia Hawkins said, "I think they totally believe in
what we're doing and why we do it. And that is
huge." There’s no such buy-in at FSU right now. Bobby
Bowden is barely involved in any game-planning or
actual coaching. His heir apparent Fisher was
supposed to be a great developer of quarterbacks.
But he appears to have given up on Drew
Weatherford after his bad year in ’07. Christian
Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson were both awful
for the Seminoles at QB Saturday, and Colorado
enjoys a very solid quarterbacking advantage.
This game is not being played in Tallahassee; it is
being played in Jacksonville. Obviously 90%+ of the
fans will be rooting for the ‘noles, but there will be
empty seats, it isn’t the ordinary home crowd, and it
isn’t something that’s obvious to all bettors. In fact,
the buzz is so little, that you could log on to
Ticketmaster on Monday afternoon and order lowerlevel
30-yard line tickets for the game and you can’t
find major ticket scalping web sites asking for any
more than $150 apiece for the best seats. This
hardly screams “big game”. Some suspended
players come back for FSU this week, bolstering a
solid defense. But the offense is a disaster and this
game looks like it’ll be a low scoring, tight affair, and
we like the direction the Buffaloes are heading in.
Colorado by 3
San Jose State (+3) over @Hawaii
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Following a terrific season, but thinking he’s peaked
with what he can accomplish with the program, the
coach leaves his established home for a better
paying job. An overmatched assistant takes over as
head man, and the losses mount. Sure, this
discussion could be about West Virginia, but it is
about Hawaii, wiped out by their only two 1-A
opponents thus far. Getting blasted at Florida is
understandable. Losing 45-7 at Oregon State (a
team that replaced their entire front 7 on defense)
on yardage of 485-211? Not so much. Even the 1-
AA home game in between, a 35-17 win over Weber
State, was blasé. You may have read that Tyler
Graunke, the UH quarterback, is supposed to be back in
the lineup, but against the vulnerable defense of Oregon
State he threw 27 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt with
two interceptions. Nothing to be scared about. This team
lost not only head coach June Jones, but QB Colt Brennan
and a lot of other good players as well, as they returned
only 9 starters. They’re a shadow of what they were
under Jones and the fan support is suffering, as there was
a lot of controversy over Jones’ departure and the
culpability of the university administration and the athletic
department leadership in not keeping him around.
And in this game they’re taking on a team that’s better
than many realize. San Jose State’s Dick Tomey has done
a fine job at a school that was considering dropping the
sport within the past decade. In a loss to Stanford on
Saturday night, Cal transfer Kyle Reed completed 23 of 26
passes, but protection was a major issue, as the Spartans
allowed him to be sacked six times in the second half.
There were some instances where he should have thrown
the ball away. But San Jose State can compete against a
team below the BCS level of talent (outrushed San Diego
State 293-6). And their 23-10 loss to Stanford was 16-10
and the Spartans had the ball at midfield with a couple of
minutes left. Stanford made the strange decision (first
and goal from the 9 with less than a minute left and no
timeouts for SJSU) to punch in a TD to make the margin
look more significant at 23-10. Stanford isn’t that bad, and
at this point a significantly better team than this depleted
Hawaii club, something that is obvious when you compare
their results against Oregon State. Stanford outplayed
Oregon State on the line of scrimmage, with a 210-86
rushing edge. That same OSU team outrushed this Hawaii
team 217-57. Of course those stats were all from games played on the
mainland, and UH has exhibited a big home field edge over
the years. But even with better talent they are only 2-4
against the spread in their last six outings as a home
favorite. Hawaii has a week off but this coaching matchup
of Tomey against Greg McMakin is men vs. boys. There
will definitely be support for Hawaii in the betting markets
by those who are used to playing Hawaii at home and have
trouble realizing that these two teams are completely
different from the ones that resulted in a 42-35 Hawaii
road win at Spartan Stadium last season. Take the points
and look for the outright upset. San Jose State by 4.
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NCAA (ES 2-1) (DF 3-0) (KO 5-4) (MB 1-4)
Saturday, September 27th, 2008
Marshall (+15½) over @West Virginia
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Who would have thought Rich Rodriguez'
departure would have affected the Mountaineer
air attack more than their ground game?
Despite not being known as a good passing
quarterback Pat White managed to notch 9.2
and 8.0 yards per attempt the last two
seasons. In three games so far in 2008 White
has gained just 5.0 yards per attempt and that
includes a 48-21 win over FCS squad Villanova.
Over the summer new head man Bill Stewart
and his offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen talked
up the need for more offensive balance in
Morgantown by throwing the ball more. After
poor results in the first two games the plan
was junked and last week against Colorado
White and RB Noel Divine combined for 281
yards on 45 carries. White threw the ball just
15 times for an anemic 43 yards. Still, even the
ground game is down a notch in 2008. Last
season White and Devine combined to gain 7.4
yards per carry, and this season that number is
down to 6.1 ypc.
My best tech system on this game is not a play
against West Virginia, but a play on Marshall. It
is a 154-81 ATS cross-season bounceback
system. Marshall qualifies because of their 3-1
record off a dismal 3-9 mark in 2007. This
system is already 4-1 ATS this season,
including a 48-7 win last week on TCU over
SMU.
When Rich Rodriguez left for Ann Arbor assistant Bill
Stewart took the helm and led the Mountaineers
over Oklahoma 48-28 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a
prime example of what I call the "Altobelli
Syndrome". That happens when an iconic head
coach leaves a program and the players try to prove
to themselves and the world that they were the
reason for the team's success and not the coach.
The Baltimore Orioles won the World Series in 1983
with coach Joe Altobelli after the legendary Earl
Weaver retired. Then the inevitable decline set in
and Altobelli was fired in May 1985. That decline has
started for the Mountaineers, and the betting public
has yet to catch up. Take the points. West Virginia
by 7.
Northwestern (+7½) over @Iowa
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
I like the look of this Northwestern team under
young head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They returned 16
starters and 47 lettermen from a team that won 6
games last season. They had to get used to new
systems on both sides of the ball, but have had 4
games against a fair even if non-intimidating
schedule to get used to those systems. I especially
liked Fitzgerald’s hire of Mike Hankwitz as the
defensive coordinator. Hankwitz has held the same
role at Texas A&M and most recently Wisconsin, and
always seems to field a quality unit on that side of
the ball. He has a surprising amount of talent (by
NW standards) to work with this season and the
results have been good so far at 11 points per game
and 282ypg. The key to the offense is senior RB
Tyrell Sutton who suffered a leg injury against Ohio
U this weekend, but was in street clothes on the
sideline after the game, and both he and teammates
say he will be fine. Check Sutton’s status for sure,
but we will continue under the assumption he will be
starting for NW. As I said above they haven’t faced the nation’s
toughest schedule thus far, but it hasn’t been the
nation’s worst either, as the 24-20 win at improving
Duke is far more impressive than it’s been in a long
while, and Ohio U gave Ohio St. a scare at the
Horseshoe. Also, the Southern Illinois team that the
Wildcats ran through was one of the nation’s top 5
1AA teams last season, and rated one of the top 15
this season by the Dunkel Index. The Wildcats are a
very business-like 4-0. Last season they won 3
conference games, only one less than today’s
opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes. However, it must be
noted that Iowa did not play either Michigan or Ohio
St. last season while Northwestern played both.
Northwestern was outyarded by 23 per game in Big
10 affairs while Iowa was outyarded by 89 per game
against the far weaker conference schedule. With
similar returnee numbers (slight advantage to
Northwestern) and a small overall talent edge to
Iowa, I actually have these teams rated very close
to equal, making this line look about 4 points too
high. The Hawkeyes have played the toughest opponent
of either of these teams so far, losing by 1 at
Pittsburgh this past week. However, the rest of
their schedule has been cupcake city, and they have
really beaten up on some weak offensive clubs.
After being a cash cow as home chalk from 2001-
2005, Kirk Ferentz is only 3-7 ATS in that role since.
This line is too high based on the names and
histories of these two clubs. Take the points with
the under-the-radar Wildcats. Iowa by only 3
Mississippi (+23) over @Florida
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Going against Florida cost us on these pages last
week, but we have no hesitation in doing it once
again in this spot. Based on scheduling dynamics
and recent results, this looks like a prime spot to
fade Florida. The Gators enter off a spotlight win
over SEC rival Tennessee, a game in which they had
an extra week to prepare. But it wasn’t the typical
big number Florida win. The Gators managed only
243 total yards with quarterback Tim Tebow
completing 8 of 15 passes for 96 yards. And off the
win we have to consider their previous history under
head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last four years,
Meyer has had Florida geared-up off their bye going
4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread. But
things are not so easy in their following game with
the Gators going 2-1 straight-up and 0-3 against the
spread. The two wins came by only 6 and 7 points.
In games following Florida’s two biggest rivals,
Tennessee and Georgia, Meyer’s Gators are just 1-5
against the spread with their average win coming by
14.3 points per game. Those two situations
certainly indicate negative coaching spread patterns
on Meyer heading into this game.
Ole Miss is in their first year under head coach
Houston Nutt. And he stepped into a pretty good
situation in Oxford, getting a very talented team that
just needed some good coaching. Things started off
nicely with a smashing of Memphis in their opener.
They then followed that with a near miss at Wake
Forest, rebounded by stomping Samford, and lost a
tough one last week to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss
dominated the game despite the loss, allowing only
11 first downs on 202 total yards and just 3.8 yards
per play. What did Ole Miss in was quarterback
Jevan Snead who threw 4 interceptions, which
basically handed Vandy the win. The Rebels played
a sloppy game overall with six turnovers and seven
costly penalties. Snead is a very good QB, and off
his worst performance, he’ll bounce back and keep
Ole Miss competitive here. Nutt and defensive
coordinator Tyrone Nix (DC at South Carolina) have
coached in the SEC for awhile so they know what to
expect in conference play, and that experience
cannot be overlooked.
With Florida off the huge Tennessee win, and Ole Miss off
a home loss, the Gators may not take the Rebels too
seriously. And that would be a huge mistake because
Florida had all kinds of trouble with them in the same exact
situation last year. The only difference (albeit a big one) is
that this game will be played in The Swamp. Ole Miss
actually should have won last year’s game, but came up 6
points short in their 30-24 loss. Last year’s experience
should give them confidence that they can hang with
Florida, and Nutt’s presence should give them more of a
chance. Taking over 3 touchdowns with a much improved
Ole Miss club off a home favorite loss is the way to go,
especially when we consider the negative indicators on the
host’s coach. Florida by only 17.
Alabama (+6½) over @Georgia
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Attractive game between a pair of teams who beat
up on overmatched opponents on Saturday.
Georgia has an incredible schedule, and a nearly
endless series of big games on tap. Georgia and the
20,000 fans they brought to Tempe were ready for
the Arizona State game and dominated, and there’s
no question that they had big edges in athleticism
and depth over the Sun Devils. Among Georgia
people there was tons of hype for that game
throughout the offseason. Obviously with ASU’s loss
to UNLV the week before it was not as intense as it
could have been, but this is still the third
consecutive big game for Georgia. Knowing that he’s
going to need to pull out all the stops to motivate
his team through their vicious schedule, Marc Richt
is pulling out the black shirts for this one. That
worked last year when they were a surprise for the
Auburn game, and worked again in the Sugar Bowl.
Alabama is off of an absolute whipping of Arkansas. And
while Arkansas is down, 35-7 at the half, with a full game
rushing yardage edge of 328-92 are nice aspects of a win.
The clunker that Bama threw in against Tulane following
their rampage over Clemson is helpful here, as it gives Nick
Saban a effective warning for his club on not believing the
hype after a big game. And this is a very big game. In
Matthew Stafford and John Parker Wilson, you’ve got a pair
of quality veteran quarterbacks. And they have possibly
the two best true freshman WR’s in the country to throw
to, in Georgia’s AJ Green (8 catches for 158 yards in
Tempe) and Alabama’s Julio Jones.
But what has us taking the points here is the play on
the line of scrimmage. Already young, Georgia has
lost some horses on their offensive front. They’re
well coached up there, but those injuries have
caused a shuffling in their lineup that didn’t matter against
Arizona State, but should matter against a Bama team with
a rock-ribbed defensive line. Nose tackle Terrence Cody is
an absolute beast, going 360 pounds and forcing Arkansas
to offer double team help to their center, Rimington Award
candidate Jonathan Luigs. After playing up the
summertime conventional wisdom that Bama actually
lacked defensive depth, Saban must be laughing now, as
their defense has waves of players. And Saban is one of
the best defensive game planners around, important to
have considering Georgia’s skill position weaponry.
Nobody has had any better luck with injuries than the
Crimson Tide. They’re as completely healthy as a team
could possibly be for their fifth game of the campaign.
Bama’s Arkansas walkover had a morning starting time in
the Central Time Zone, and they were back in Tuscaloosa
in time to watch Georgia’s win in the desert. The Bulldogs
flew a redeye back to Atlanta, and then bused out to
Athens. Obviously there’s time to recover, but will that all
nighter catch up to the Dawgs late in the 4th quarter?
There are some intangibles that favor Alabama, though of
course the UGA crowd will be revved up for this prime time
affair. But the depth of talent that Bama has defensively
is remarkable, and the concerns for UGA’s offensive line
are warranted. This looks like one of your last chances to
take substantial points with Bama for a long time. Could
go either way, and we’ll call it Bama by 1.
South Florida (-8) over @NC State
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
South Florida was in a tough spot last week, and the
fact that they laid an egg is not all that surprising.
Two weeks back, the Bulls hosted Kansas in a Friday
night spotlight game. They were down by 10 points
at the half, but scored 17 points in the 3rd quarter,
and then struck quickly in the 4th to take a 14 point
lead. But then the Bulls needed to dig down again
after Kansas tied the score at 34 with just over five
minutes to play. South Florida eventually pulled out
a 37-34 on a last play field goal, but the game left
them drained. And they suffered a huge hangover
last week at Florida International and the
unimpressive 17-9 win definitely raised a few
eyebrows. But South Florida has some excuses. First, and
most relevant, is how the game described above
played out. Second, the Bulls were playing the
worst team in major college football. The FIU
Golden Panthers owned just one win in their last 26
games coming in, so to expect any focus from the
Bulls was simply not going to happen. “I think we
were thinking a little bit ahead,” South Florida
quarterback Matt Grothe said. “Luckily we won that
game. It was a little scary.” And this game was also
on the day of the big grand opening of FIU’s brand
new on-campus stadium, which was a huge day for
the school and football program. They were going
to show up; this was their Super Bowl, especially
against an in-state opponent ranked # 12. “We
really, really played with everything we had,” FIU
coach Mario Cristobal said. So everything adds up
perfectly to draw a line through the game and forget
the results because South Florida basically just
showed up and went through the motions. And with
head coach Jim Leavitt saying, “We played about as
bad as we could have played, I don’t see how we
could have played worse,” look for his team to play
60 minutes of football here. NC State enters off an upset
win over one in-state foe East
Carolina. It was fitting that the game went to overtime
because the stats were dead even (literally). But it was
still the first game this year in which NC State actually
scored a touchdown against a real opponent after getting
shutdown against South Carolina and Clemson. And South
Florida’s defense is just as good if not better than those
two so look for State’s offensive troubles to comeback in
this game. And this comment by head coach Tom O’Brien
makes me believe that his team may bounce off last
week’s win: “They listen to the trash about how they can’t
score and how they’ve been scoreless for so many halves
(against FBS teams),” O’Brien said. “It bothers our young
guys. Our veterans are more used to it and don’t take it to
heart. This win got the weight off their shoulders and
showed them how it feels to win a big game.” So we have
two teams entering off wins, but South Florida is looking to
play much better while NC State is satisfied because they
finally scored a touchdown. The better team will be
extremely focused here and stretches out to a comfortable
win. South Florida by 14.
Colorado (+6) over Florida State
@Jacksonville, Florida
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Not buying into the “Florida State hype” was one of
my few exhibitions of wisdom on Saturday. You
may not have noticed the Seminoles on Saturday, as
Georgia/Arizona State and LSU/Auburn were
certainly more attractive games, but FSU’s offense
was horrendous. FSU turned the ball over 7 times,
but it wasn’t a case of them marching up and down
the field only to have turnovers kill them. The
Seminoles gained only 230 yards on 64 plays (yep,
that is, in fact, only 3.6 yards per play. Wasn’t Jimbo
Fisher supposed to solve all these problems?) Their
offensive design continues to be dreadful, and they
just aren’t a heady group. FSU has a lot of speed,
and it works well on defense, but they’re going to
have to score some points to get this cover and
where is that coming from? Colorado is used to
facing athletic teams from the Big 12 (and West
Virginia, who they beat on Thursday night), and
they won’t be intimidated.
Dan Hawkins son Cody is the quarterback for the
Buffs. He’s improved this season, completing 70%
of his attempts with 6 TD’s and 3 INT’s. Colorado
is a program that’s really coming together. Talent
has never been in short supply in Boulder, but a ton
of off-field problems predated Coach Hawkins’
arrival. And he had to win the team over. But it
appears that he has. After the upset win over West
Virginia Hawkins said, "I think they totally believe in
what we're doing and why we do it. And that is
huge." There’s no such buy-in at FSU right now. Bobby
Bowden is barely involved in any game-planning or
actual coaching. His heir apparent Fisher was
supposed to be a great developer of quarterbacks.
But he appears to have given up on Drew
Weatherford after his bad year in ’07. Christian
Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson were both awful
for the Seminoles at QB Saturday, and Colorado
enjoys a very solid quarterbacking advantage.
This game is not being played in Tallahassee; it is
being played in Jacksonville. Obviously 90%+ of the
fans will be rooting for the ‘noles, but there will be
empty seats, it isn’t the ordinary home crowd, and it
isn’t something that’s obvious to all bettors. In fact,
the buzz is so little, that you could log on to
Ticketmaster on Monday afternoon and order lowerlevel
30-yard line tickets for the game and you can’t
find major ticket scalping web sites asking for any
more than $150 apiece for the best seats. This
hardly screams “big game”. Some suspended
players come back for FSU this week, bolstering a
solid defense. But the offense is a disaster and this
game looks like it’ll be a low scoring, tight affair, and
we like the direction the Buffaloes are heading in.
Colorado by 3
San Jose State (+3) over @Hawaii
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Following a terrific season, but thinking he’s peaked
with what he can accomplish with the program, the
coach leaves his established home for a better
paying job. An overmatched assistant takes over as
head man, and the losses mount. Sure, this
discussion could be about West Virginia, but it is
about Hawaii, wiped out by their only two 1-A
opponents thus far. Getting blasted at Florida is
understandable. Losing 45-7 at Oregon State (a
team that replaced their entire front 7 on defense)
on yardage of 485-211? Not so much. Even the 1-
AA home game in between, a 35-17 win over Weber
State, was blasé. You may have read that Tyler
Graunke, the UH quarterback, is supposed to be back in
the lineup, but against the vulnerable defense of Oregon
State he threw 27 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt with
two interceptions. Nothing to be scared about. This team
lost not only head coach June Jones, but QB Colt Brennan
and a lot of other good players as well, as they returned
only 9 starters. They’re a shadow of what they were
under Jones and the fan support is suffering, as there was
a lot of controversy over Jones’ departure and the
culpability of the university administration and the athletic
department leadership in not keeping him around.
And in this game they’re taking on a team that’s better
than many realize. San Jose State’s Dick Tomey has done
a fine job at a school that was considering dropping the
sport within the past decade. In a loss to Stanford on
Saturday night, Cal transfer Kyle Reed completed 23 of 26
passes, but protection was a major issue, as the Spartans
allowed him to be sacked six times in the second half.
There were some instances where he should have thrown
the ball away. But San Jose State can compete against a
team below the BCS level of talent (outrushed San Diego
State 293-6). And their 23-10 loss to Stanford was 16-10
and the Spartans had the ball at midfield with a couple of
minutes left. Stanford made the strange decision (first
and goal from the 9 with less than a minute left and no
timeouts for SJSU) to punch in a TD to make the margin
look more significant at 23-10. Stanford isn’t that bad, and
at this point a significantly better team than this depleted
Hawaii club, something that is obvious when you compare
their results against Oregon State. Stanford outplayed
Oregon State on the line of scrimmage, with a 210-86
rushing edge. That same OSU team outrushed this Hawaii
team 217-57. Of course those stats were all from games played on the
mainland, and UH has exhibited a big home field edge over
the years. But even with better talent they are only 2-4
against the spread in their last six outings as a home
favorite. Hawaii has a week off but this coaching matchup
of Tomey against Greg McMakin is men vs. boys. There
will definitely be support for Hawaii in the betting markets
by those who are used to playing Hawaii at home and have
trouble realizing that these two teams are completely
different from the ones that resulted in a 42-35 Hawaii
road win at Spartan Stadium last season. Take the points
and look for the outright upset. San Jose State by 4.
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KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX
NFL (ES 1-1) (DF 0-2) (KO 1-2) (MB 2-1)
Sunday, September 28th, 2008
@Cincinnati (-3½) over Cleveland
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Both teams come into this rivalry game
with a deserved 0-3 record. But the
Bengals woke up last weekend falling in
overtime to the defending Super Bowl
champ Giants 26-23. The offense showed
some spine, erasing deficits three times
during regulation. Carson Palmer had his
first solid game of the season,
withstanding a furious Gotham pass rush
(six sacks) to deliver 27 completions in 39
passes. Browns' QB Derek Anderson was supposed
to be the pillar of a revived Cleveland
attack. In 2007 he orchestrated a boomor-
bust air game that completed lots of
long passes (averaged nearly 13 yard per
completion) with a higher than average
interception rate. So far in 2008 there has
been no boom only bust. Anderson has
completed less than 45% of his passes and
averaged less than 10 yards per
completion. My top tech on this game is a 108-44 ATS
system that plays on losing teams that must
give a good effort now because the road ahead
looks difficult. On deck Cincinnati has a visit to
a 3-0 Dallas team that is off an impressive 27-
16 Sunday night nationally televised win over
the Packers at Lambeau. This system is already
1-0 ATS in 2008 with a winner on Minnesota
over Carolina last week.
Long term I'm not a fan of the Bengals'
prospects. Over the offseason Marvin Lewis
wanted to get rid of bad seed wideout Chris
Henry, but owner Mike Brown overruled him.
The slight has undercut Lewis' authority in the
locker room. But a good effort on the road
against the Super Bowl winning Giants should
be enough inspiration to succeed here. Lay the
points. Cincinnati by 11.
Texans (+7½) over @Jaguars
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Texans were in a terrible spot last week. Not
only were they playing in just their second game of
the season, but they also had to deal with much
more important things than football. Hurricane Ike
wrecked havoc in the city of Houston, and the
Texans’ players had to deal with the harsh realities.
It was impossible for them to focus on football when
they and their families were directly affected by the
nasty storm. They lost close to four days of
preparation, so their results from Sunday’s game at
Tennessee should be ignored. But now they’ll be
back into the swing of football full time, and their
improvement will show on the field this week as
they face another divisional opponent in
Jacksonville. Houston’s running game was very impressive in the
loss at Tennessee. The Titans possess one of the
best defensive lines in the game, and heading into
Sunday’s game, they allowed only 33 yards on 1.9
yards per rush to the Jaguars and 88 yards on 3.1
yards to the Bengals. Those numbers are no fluke
after ending last year allowing only 91 yards per
game on 3.8 yards per rush. But the Texans gashed
them yesterday for 148 yards on 5.2 yards per rush.
Steve Slaton had a field day, and the zone blocking
scheme seems to be working for Houston. Despite
scoring only 12 points, the Texans had plenty of
chances throughout the game. In fact, they had the
ball inside the Tennessee 14-yard line six times, but
came up empty on those possessions. Head coach
Gary Kubiak is catching some heat for sticking with
Matt Schaub at quarterback. Schaub has not played
well at all with 6 turnovers in two games. But he
was facing good defenses in Pittsburgh and
Tennessee, and you cannot underestimate the
setbacks caused by Ike. At 0-2, the Texans are
desperate which might cause Kubiak to make a
hasty QB switch to Sage Rosenfels. Still like the
Texans in this spot though, regardless of who’s
under center. Jacksonville was one play away from being 0-3.
They were bailed out on a 4th down penalty on the Colts, which kept
their final drive alive on way to the game winning field
goal. And that was after the Jags held the ball for over 25
minutes in the 2nd half. Even with the win, the Jaguars still
have issues. We can’t overlook the fact that the Jags are
still missing two starters on their offensive line. A center
and a guard missing make it extremely difficult for
Jacksonville to run up the middle, a spot where the Jags
love to run the football. They shredded the Colts for 236
yards on the ground, but that’s the norm for them when
facing Indy. David Garrard admitted to reporters he could
“exhale” after Sunday’s win, and that really doesn’t shout
confidence right now. The Jags are satisfied off their first
win while the Texans will give their all to avoid a 0-3 start.
Jaguars by only 1.
Niners (+6) @Saints
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It’s never a bad idea to fade teams with poor
defenses in the NFL, particularly as the pointspread
gets larger. The Saints D is again a weak outfit.
Thus far this season they’ve allowed nearly 28
points per game, on 392 yards per game, and 6.2
yards per play. They rank 27th or worse in all those
categories. And before you excuse away these
numbers by saying, “well they played the Broncos,
and Denver is playing in some very high scoring
games,” realize that New Orleans’ other two games
were against the Redskins and the Bucs, who are
much closer to average offensively. And the Saints
offensive production resulted in part from having to
let it fly when trailing 21-3.
And while these are not you father’s 49ers, neither
are they the horrific outfit from last season. Alex
Smith will get his guaranteed $25 million, but is
unlikely to ever see the field again for this ballclub.
JT O’Sullivan had yet another strong performance on
Sunday. Sure it was only against the Lions (that
was an excellent report on Detroit by Dave Fobare
that we emailed to you), but the Niners outgained
the Detroit 5.9 yards per play to 4.4, marking the
third straight impressive boxscore for San Francisco.
O’Sullivan is averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per
pass attempt on the season. With only a single
interception on the season thus far, he could be a
guy who is really emerging into an impressive
player. In the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Lions, the Niners
have faced a pretty blah set of opponents, but it is
well worth noting that they’re gaining 6.0 yards per
play, while giving up 4.4. Against some tougher
competition (Bucs, Redskins, Broncos) the Saints
gain 6.3 yards per play while allowing the 6.2 we
mentioned earlier. The Niners were a team that
everyone had on their “look out for these guys” list
last season, but Alex Smith and injuries hurt them.
Now they’ve got O’Sullivan, the unheralded but
effective quarterback, and are enjoying some better
health. When you see the difference between their
offense last season and this season, and the decline
of Detroit’s, it looks like Mike Martz is a positive
influence on an offense, even relatively quickly. This
club has a lot of good young players who may be
blossoming. There is some concern that they gave
up some yards and points on the road a couple of
weeks ago to a beat-up Seattle offense, but the
Saints defensive vulnerabilities strike us as being
more important. Taking a TD with them against a
club with significant defensive issues doesn’t look
like the worst move to make on Sunday’s NFL card.
Niners by 1.
Falcons (+7) @Panthers
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Matt Ryan had a real nice advantage in his 5th-year
senior season at Boston College. He had already
graduated, so he was taking a class or two as a
graduate student, but for the most part he was
majoring in football. He would show up to watch
film for hours each day before the rest of the team
gathered for his afternoon practice. Steve Logan
(former East Carolina coach) had most recently been
a QB coach in NFL Europe and BC head coach Jeff
Jagodiznski was previously Brett Favre’s offensive
coordinator with the Packers. So he had all kinds of
time to watch film and learn from a couple of
coaches with a lot of background in helping coach
professional quarterbacks. As a result, he is more
prepared than most to be an NFL quarterback and is
averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ties
him for 7th in the league. Veterans on the Falcons
suggest that after the horror of having Bobby
Petrino as head coach, Mike Smith and his staff are
a breath of fresh air. Smith’s defenses at
Jacksonville certainly always looked well coached, so
maybe we shouldn’t be surprised by the new
professionalism being exhibited by Atlanta.
The Sporting News projected a 1-15 season for
Atlanta but this team is making good progress.
They’ve been fortunate to have home games against
sad-sacks Detroit and Kansas City, but they blew
both clubs out and the fact remains they’re on the
right track. The Falcons are averaging 6.2 yards
per play while allowing 4.9. Carolina has played
stiffer competition but has averaged only 4.5 yards
per play while allowing 4.9. The Panthers haven’t
looked sharp since their opening win over the
Chargers. In their loss at Minnesota on Sunday they
didn’t score after taking a 10-0 lead with 9:55 left in
the second quarter. They were penalized 12 times.
And they gained only 203 yards of total offense.
Valuable special teams performer and situational
linebacker Dan Connor (3rd round rookie out of Penn
State) tore his ACL and is done for the season.
While there are new faces on the Atlanta coaching
staff, many of these players are familiar with each
other from having played in the division together.
As bad as the Falcons were the past two seasons,
they’re won in Charlotte as an underdog both times.
Panthers have won only 3 of their last 18 games by
more than 7 points and since the start of the 2003
season are 10-21-1 against the spread as a home
favorite. In fact, you could likely do a lot worse
than simply taking the points in games involving
either one of these coaches. Take the points in a
game that will go to the wire. Panthers by only 3.
Monday, September 29th, 2008
Ravens @Steelers Under The Total
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
No line has been posted on this game yet due to the
uncertain status of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger
who suffered a hand injury against Philadelphia on
Sunday. Big Ben and the Black and Gold offense
were rendered surprisingly ineffective at Philly as
they could muster only 6 points on 180 yards. They
struggled mightily with Eagles’ defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson’s blitz packages and it won’t be any
easier here against Rex Ryan’s attacking defense.
However, Pittsburgh can afford to be more patient
with the running game here, knowing that the
Ravens offense is far less capable than Donovan
McNabb and the Eagles. Now the line will certainly
adjust downward if Byron Leftwich is under center
instead of Roethlisberger, but that will create a more
cautious and probably punchless Pittsburgh attack,
as Leftwich will be a sitting duck for Baltimore. I
expect Pittsburgh to attempt to win this game with
its defense, more worried about field position than
going up top with the passing game.
The Ravens will likely do the same thing, as
subjecting Joe Flacco to Dick Lebeau’s blitz packages
any more than they have to just wouldn’t be fair at
this point of the rookie’s career. The Ravens lack
weapons on the outside, but have a very deep
backfield with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron Mclain, and
Ray Rice. With those three healthy, they won’t mind
as much as some teams repeatedly plunging it into
the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense. The Baltimore
defense looks as strong as ever, as they’ve allowed
only 333 yards TOTAL in their two games thus far.
As I said last week, until they wear down in
December, I expect them to be top 5 on that side of
the ball. Last week I recommended Baltimore Under in these
pages. It was a winner at the opening price, but a
loser if you bet it on Sunday. One of Baltimore’s
scores was a defensive touchdown. They face a
much stiffer defense this week, and I expect this to
be a smashmouth type affair. Both teams will run
and run some more vs. defenses that simply have
not been run on in years. Neither team wants to
play from behind thus neither will want to make the
first mistake. I expect the number to be
somewhere around 36 with Rothelisberger starting,
and most likely 33.5 or 34 if he’s not. Either way,
the call is Under as the first one to 17 may just be
the winner here.
Systems & Strategies
Running To Daylight: Through Game 5, play any NFL team that rushed for more than
200 yards last week and is a dog or fave up to -7 today.
Record Since 1990: 77-55 ATS (58.3%)
This week’s application: Jacksonville Jaguars
Bye Bye: Play against any undefeated college road favorite in Game 3 or later coming
off a bye week.
Pointspread Record Since 1983: 73-44 (63.5%)
This week’s application: Oregon State (play against USC), Michigan (play against
Wisconsin)
That’s More Like It: Play on any 1-2 team off a loss in Game 4 vs. an undefeated
conference opponent off of back to back straight-up and pointspread wins.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 17-6 (74%)
This week’s application: Michigan over Wisconsin
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NFL (ES 1-1) (DF 0-2) (KO 1-2) (MB 2-1)
Sunday, September 28th, 2008
@Cincinnati (-3½) over Cleveland
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Both teams come into this rivalry game
with a deserved 0-3 record. But the
Bengals woke up last weekend falling in
overtime to the defending Super Bowl
champ Giants 26-23. The offense showed
some spine, erasing deficits three times
during regulation. Carson Palmer had his
first solid game of the season,
withstanding a furious Gotham pass rush
(six sacks) to deliver 27 completions in 39
passes. Browns' QB Derek Anderson was supposed
to be the pillar of a revived Cleveland
attack. In 2007 he orchestrated a boomor-
bust air game that completed lots of
long passes (averaged nearly 13 yard per
completion) with a higher than average
interception rate. So far in 2008 there has
been no boom only bust. Anderson has
completed less than 45% of his passes and
averaged less than 10 yards per
completion. My top tech on this game is a 108-44 ATS
system that plays on losing teams that must
give a good effort now because the road ahead
looks difficult. On deck Cincinnati has a visit to
a 3-0 Dallas team that is off an impressive 27-
16 Sunday night nationally televised win over
the Packers at Lambeau. This system is already
1-0 ATS in 2008 with a winner on Minnesota
over Carolina last week.
Long term I'm not a fan of the Bengals'
prospects. Over the offseason Marvin Lewis
wanted to get rid of bad seed wideout Chris
Henry, but owner Mike Brown overruled him.
The slight has undercut Lewis' authority in the
locker room. But a good effort on the road
against the Super Bowl winning Giants should
be enough inspiration to succeed here. Lay the
points. Cincinnati by 11.
Texans (+7½) over @Jaguars
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Texans were in a terrible spot last week. Not
only were they playing in just their second game of
the season, but they also had to deal with much
more important things than football. Hurricane Ike
wrecked havoc in the city of Houston, and the
Texans’ players had to deal with the harsh realities.
It was impossible for them to focus on football when
they and their families were directly affected by the
nasty storm. They lost close to four days of
preparation, so their results from Sunday’s game at
Tennessee should be ignored. But now they’ll be
back into the swing of football full time, and their
improvement will show on the field this week as
they face another divisional opponent in
Jacksonville. Houston’s running game was very impressive in the
loss at Tennessee. The Titans possess one of the
best defensive lines in the game, and heading into
Sunday’s game, they allowed only 33 yards on 1.9
yards per rush to the Jaguars and 88 yards on 3.1
yards to the Bengals. Those numbers are no fluke
after ending last year allowing only 91 yards per
game on 3.8 yards per rush. But the Texans gashed
them yesterday for 148 yards on 5.2 yards per rush.
Steve Slaton had a field day, and the zone blocking
scheme seems to be working for Houston. Despite
scoring only 12 points, the Texans had plenty of
chances throughout the game. In fact, they had the
ball inside the Tennessee 14-yard line six times, but
came up empty on those possessions. Head coach
Gary Kubiak is catching some heat for sticking with
Matt Schaub at quarterback. Schaub has not played
well at all with 6 turnovers in two games. But he
was facing good defenses in Pittsburgh and
Tennessee, and you cannot underestimate the
setbacks caused by Ike. At 0-2, the Texans are
desperate which might cause Kubiak to make a
hasty QB switch to Sage Rosenfels. Still like the
Texans in this spot though, regardless of who’s
under center. Jacksonville was one play away from being 0-3.
They were bailed out on a 4th down penalty on the Colts, which kept
their final drive alive on way to the game winning field
goal. And that was after the Jags held the ball for over 25
minutes in the 2nd half. Even with the win, the Jaguars still
have issues. We can’t overlook the fact that the Jags are
still missing two starters on their offensive line. A center
and a guard missing make it extremely difficult for
Jacksonville to run up the middle, a spot where the Jags
love to run the football. They shredded the Colts for 236
yards on the ground, but that’s the norm for them when
facing Indy. David Garrard admitted to reporters he could
“exhale” after Sunday’s win, and that really doesn’t shout
confidence right now. The Jags are satisfied off their first
win while the Texans will give their all to avoid a 0-3 start.
Jaguars by only 1.
Niners (+6) @Saints
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It’s never a bad idea to fade teams with poor
defenses in the NFL, particularly as the pointspread
gets larger. The Saints D is again a weak outfit.
Thus far this season they’ve allowed nearly 28
points per game, on 392 yards per game, and 6.2
yards per play. They rank 27th or worse in all those
categories. And before you excuse away these
numbers by saying, “well they played the Broncos,
and Denver is playing in some very high scoring
games,” realize that New Orleans’ other two games
were against the Redskins and the Bucs, who are
much closer to average offensively. And the Saints
offensive production resulted in part from having to
let it fly when trailing 21-3.
And while these are not you father’s 49ers, neither
are they the horrific outfit from last season. Alex
Smith will get his guaranteed $25 million, but is
unlikely to ever see the field again for this ballclub.
JT O’Sullivan had yet another strong performance on
Sunday. Sure it was only against the Lions (that
was an excellent report on Detroit by Dave Fobare
that we emailed to you), but the Niners outgained
the Detroit 5.9 yards per play to 4.4, marking the
third straight impressive boxscore for San Francisco.
O’Sullivan is averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per
pass attempt on the season. With only a single
interception on the season thus far, he could be a
guy who is really emerging into an impressive
player. In the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Lions, the Niners
have faced a pretty blah set of opponents, but it is
well worth noting that they’re gaining 6.0 yards per
play, while giving up 4.4. Against some tougher
competition (Bucs, Redskins, Broncos) the Saints
gain 6.3 yards per play while allowing the 6.2 we
mentioned earlier. The Niners were a team that
everyone had on their “look out for these guys” list
last season, but Alex Smith and injuries hurt them.
Now they’ve got O’Sullivan, the unheralded but
effective quarterback, and are enjoying some better
health. When you see the difference between their
offense last season and this season, and the decline
of Detroit’s, it looks like Mike Martz is a positive
influence on an offense, even relatively quickly. This
club has a lot of good young players who may be
blossoming. There is some concern that they gave
up some yards and points on the road a couple of
weeks ago to a beat-up Seattle offense, but the
Saints defensive vulnerabilities strike us as being
more important. Taking a TD with them against a
club with significant defensive issues doesn’t look
like the worst move to make on Sunday’s NFL card.
Niners by 1.
Falcons (+7) @Panthers
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Matt Ryan had a real nice advantage in his 5th-year
senior season at Boston College. He had already
graduated, so he was taking a class or two as a
graduate student, but for the most part he was
majoring in football. He would show up to watch
film for hours each day before the rest of the team
gathered for his afternoon practice. Steve Logan
(former East Carolina coach) had most recently been
a QB coach in NFL Europe and BC head coach Jeff
Jagodiznski was previously Brett Favre’s offensive
coordinator with the Packers. So he had all kinds of
time to watch film and learn from a couple of
coaches with a lot of background in helping coach
professional quarterbacks. As a result, he is more
prepared than most to be an NFL quarterback and is
averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ties
him for 7th in the league. Veterans on the Falcons
suggest that after the horror of having Bobby
Petrino as head coach, Mike Smith and his staff are
a breath of fresh air. Smith’s defenses at
Jacksonville certainly always looked well coached, so
maybe we shouldn’t be surprised by the new
professionalism being exhibited by Atlanta.
The Sporting News projected a 1-15 season for
Atlanta but this team is making good progress.
They’ve been fortunate to have home games against
sad-sacks Detroit and Kansas City, but they blew
both clubs out and the fact remains they’re on the
right track. The Falcons are averaging 6.2 yards
per play while allowing 4.9. Carolina has played
stiffer competition but has averaged only 4.5 yards
per play while allowing 4.9. The Panthers haven’t
looked sharp since their opening win over the
Chargers. In their loss at Minnesota on Sunday they
didn’t score after taking a 10-0 lead with 9:55 left in
the second quarter. They were penalized 12 times.
And they gained only 203 yards of total offense.
Valuable special teams performer and situational
linebacker Dan Connor (3rd round rookie out of Penn
State) tore his ACL and is done for the season.
While there are new faces on the Atlanta coaching
staff, many of these players are familiar with each
other from having played in the division together.
As bad as the Falcons were the past two seasons,
they’re won in Charlotte as an underdog both times.
Panthers have won only 3 of their last 18 games by
more than 7 points and since the start of the 2003
season are 10-21-1 against the spread as a home
favorite. In fact, you could likely do a lot worse
than simply taking the points in games involving
either one of these coaches. Take the points in a
game that will go to the wire. Panthers by only 3.
Monday, September 29th, 2008
Ravens @Steelers Under The Total
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
No line has been posted on this game yet due to the
uncertain status of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger
who suffered a hand injury against Philadelphia on
Sunday. Big Ben and the Black and Gold offense
were rendered surprisingly ineffective at Philly as
they could muster only 6 points on 180 yards. They
struggled mightily with Eagles’ defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson’s blitz packages and it won’t be any
easier here against Rex Ryan’s attacking defense.
However, Pittsburgh can afford to be more patient
with the running game here, knowing that the
Ravens offense is far less capable than Donovan
McNabb and the Eagles. Now the line will certainly
adjust downward if Byron Leftwich is under center
instead of Roethlisberger, but that will create a more
cautious and probably punchless Pittsburgh attack,
as Leftwich will be a sitting duck for Baltimore. I
expect Pittsburgh to attempt to win this game with
its defense, more worried about field position than
going up top with the passing game.
The Ravens will likely do the same thing, as
subjecting Joe Flacco to Dick Lebeau’s blitz packages
any more than they have to just wouldn’t be fair at
this point of the rookie’s career. The Ravens lack
weapons on the outside, but have a very deep
backfield with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron Mclain, and
Ray Rice. With those three healthy, they won’t mind
as much as some teams repeatedly plunging it into
the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense. The Baltimore
defense looks as strong as ever, as they’ve allowed
only 333 yards TOTAL in their two games thus far.
As I said last week, until they wear down in
December, I expect them to be top 5 on that side of
the ball. Last week I recommended Baltimore Under in these
pages. It was a winner at the opening price, but a
loser if you bet it on Sunday. One of Baltimore’s
scores was a defensive touchdown. They face a
much stiffer defense this week, and I expect this to
be a smashmouth type affair. Both teams will run
and run some more vs. defenses that simply have
not been run on in years. Neither team wants to
play from behind thus neither will want to make the
first mistake. I expect the number to be
somewhere around 36 with Rothelisberger starting,
and most likely 33.5 or 34 if he’s not. Either way,
the call is Under as the first one to 17 may just be
the winner here.
Systems & Strategies
Running To Daylight: Through Game 5, play any NFL team that rushed for more than
200 yards last week and is a dog or fave up to -7 today.
Record Since 1990: 77-55 ATS (58.3%)
This week’s application: Jacksonville Jaguars
Bye Bye: Play against any undefeated college road favorite in Game 3 or later coming
off a bye week.
Pointspread Record Since 1983: 73-44 (63.5%)
This week’s application: Oregon State (play against USC), Michigan (play against
Wisconsin)
That’s More Like It: Play on any 1-2 team off a loss in Game 4 vs. an undefeated
conference opponent off of back to back straight-up and pointspread wins.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 17-6 (74%)
This week’s application: Michigan over Wisconsin
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