Nelly's Greensheet
RATING 5 TEXAS A&M (-15) over Uab
RATING 4 NORTH CAROLINA (+2½) over Georgia Tech
RATING 3 TEXAS TECH (+1) over Houston
RATING 2 AIR FORCE (-16½) over San Diego State
RATING 2 OHIO (+20½) over Tennessee
RATING 1 OREGON (+7) over California
RATING 1 WYOMING (+5½) over Unlv
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ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2009
Mississippi (-3½) SOUTH CAROLINA 6:45 PM
The road team has won and covered each of the last six meetings between these teams and
last season South Carolina took advantage of catching Ole Miss off an upset win over Florida.
After an ugly win with just seven points in the opening week, the Gamecocks have scored 37
and 38 in the past two weeks. Both of these teams appeared to cruise in mismatches last
week but South Carolina endured a tough battle in the first half before a few big plays in the
second half changed the course of the game. The Rebels were also a little flat at the outset as
28 second half points padded the final margin. Both teams were less than sharp defensively
but the intensity should be increased this week. Mississippi is in uncharted territory with a high
national ranking and now playing as a road favorite in a tough SEC venue in a national TV
game. Ole Miss is 2-8 the last ten games as road favorites while South Carolina has not been
a formidable performer as a home dog. Mississippi features the more experienced offense
and should have the superior rushing attack and could keep up the road success trends in this
series with a key win in a tough stretch of road games early in the year. OLE MISS BY 10
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2009
Missouri (-7½) NEVADA 8:00 PM
Nevada opened the year with two big road games and the Wolf Pack did not come close in
either game. Nevada features veteran QB Colin Kaepernick who has posted huge numbers
but so far he and his teammates have had an 8-0 turnover deficit in two games. This will be
the first home game of the season for Nevada where they are 22-8 S/U the last five years.
Last season Missouri crushed Nevada 69-17 in a game where the Tigers posted huge passing
numbers. Notre Dame showed in the opener that the Nevada defense still has extensive
deficiencies against the pass so this could still be a problematic match-up. Last week Missouri
cruised against Furman but the defense allowed 22 first downs and serious yardage. This will
also be the first true road game for the Tigers on the season. Given last year’s result and the
ugly 0-2 result for Nevada so far this season, this should be an inflated line and the Wolf Pack
should have a much better performance finally playing at home. Missouri has covered in five
of the last six as road favorites but Nevada is 19-7-1 ATS at home since 2004 and this is a
must-win situation after two bad losses. MISSOURI BY 4
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2009
Wake Forest (-2½) BOSTON COLLEGE 1:00 PM
The Eagles faced tough conditions last week with rain delays but Boston College produced
just four first downs and netted 54 total yards. The BC defense did a nice job but there remain
major questions on offense as QB Justin Tuggle has completed just 35 percent of his passes
this season. After a frantic win over Stanford two weeks ago, Wake Forest picked up another
win with far less drama last week against Elon. Senior QB Riley Skinner had a career day last
week after a rocky start to the season he has compiled very efficient numbers. Last season
these teams endured a defensive battle with both teams being held to low yardage totals in a
late BC victory. There were 17 punts and eight sacks in last year’s game but the QB
advantage should prove significant in this year’s game. Boston College is yet to play a close
game this season so Wake Forest should be in an advantageous position late in the game
having battled through two tough four quarter games already this season and featuring
veterans in key spots while Boston College got both wins against weak competition. BC has
been penalized for last week with this line but the Deacons are the play. WAKE BY 6
OHIO STATE (-14) Illinois 2:30 PM
The Buckeyes bounced back last week with an impressive shutout win. The offensive
production was needed but shutting down the Toledo offense was more impressive as the
Rockets posted huge numbers in the first two weeks against BCS conference competition.
The last meeting with Illinois in Columbus resulted in a crushing 21-28 loss as the #1 team in
the nation, though the Buckeyes still found their way to the national title game that season.
Last year Illinois posted over 450 yards against Ohio State but still lost by ten at home despite
the yardage edge. Illinois has impressive success in this series, actually going 19-8 ATS since
1980 and this is a critical game for both teams that already own non-conference losses. Illinois
has allowed over 300 passing yards in both games this season, including against Illinois State
so there should be concerns for the Illini against an opened up passing game for Ohio State
that produced some big plays last week. Illinois lost its starting middle linebacker for the
season after the opening game so there are some concerns for the Illini but Ohio State’s
defense has not been air tight either this season. Given the history of success for Illinois in
this series and the season-making potential of this game, the Illini and an explosive offense
should have some success. Ohio State played flawlessly last week but this will be a much
tougher challenge for a team that has failed in many big games . OHIO STATE BY 10
NORTHWESTERN (-1½) Minnesota 11:00 AM
The Gophers earned some respect last week by hanging close with Cal on the scoreboard but
Minnesota gave up a lot of yards and star WR Eric Decker had to leave the game. Minnesota
has played a quality early season schedule which has hampered their offensive numbers
while Northwestern failed in a golden opportunity to start 3-0 with a narrow loss last week.
Minnesota’s defense gave up a lot of big plays early last week but held firm most of the
second half. Northwestern ignited the Syracuse offense last week as the Orange had 471
yards. In the opener Syracuse had just 257 yards against Minnesota. Both teams played at
the Carrier Dome and though Minnesota won and Northwestern loss, both games could have
gone either way. Last season Minnesota was 7-1 and leading Northwestern before things fell
apart. Current Northwestern QB Mike Kafka started that game and had a huge day on the
ground. Minnesota lost that game and did not win another game the rest of the season.
Minnesota has lost seven of the last eleven against Northwestern but has strong ATS
numbers in the series. Minnesota played commendably in each of the Big Ten road games
last season and the Gophers have played a far tougher schedule. MINNESOTA BY 7
MICHIGAN (-20) Indiana 11:00 AM
Michigan has one of the top rushing offenses in the nation as the spread offense is proving to
be highly effective in year two. Michigan’s defense has allowed nearly 360 yards per game
however with a schedule that has included two MAC teams and three home games. This will
be the homecoming game for Michigan and the Wolverines are coming off a fortunate cover in
a game that was much closer than the final margin represents. Indiana was dogged last week
on the road but the Hoosiers delivered by far their best offensive performance of the season.
These teams have not played the past two seasons and Indiana has had minimal success in
this series, going 8-15 ATS with just one S/U win since ’80. Michigan has covered in all three
games this season, all at home and the Wolverines should not be doubted this week. Indiana
is an unimpressive 2-1 after having opened with arguably the easiest schedule of any BCS
conference team and the Hoosiers will have big problems containing the superior athletes on
the Michigan offense. Although Michigan appears to have some vulnerability on defense this
is not a match-up that will expose those potential problems. MICHIGAN BY 28
TEMPLE (-2½) Buffalo 11:00 AM
The Bulls squeaked out a win last season at home against Temple on the way to an
unforgettable season. Buffalo converted 35-yard Hail Mary pass to win in the final seconds to
secure a two-point win. Buffalo was led by a solid rushing attack last year but that has not
been the case this season. Buffalo has played a very tough early season schedule and this
will be the third road game in four weeks. Temple suffered an embarrassing loss in week one,
although Villanova is likely destined to be one of the top FCS teams this season. Last week
against Penn State Temple held its own, although they put together few serious scoring
threats. Temple features a veteran defense that could have a few advantages in this matchup.
Buffalo has covered in nine of the last ten road games but Temple has been a very good
team at home and the Owls may be in a better situation for this game. TEMPLE BY 4
WISCONSIN (-2½) Michigan State 11:00 AM
While Michigan State is 1-2 Wisconsin is 3-0, but this figures to be a fairly even match-up.
Last season Michigan State was scrambling to kick a game-winning field goal attempt when
Wisconsin inexplicably called timeout and the Spartans set up the game winner, 25-24. Two
years ago at Camp Randall Wisconsin won 37-34 in a wild game. Wisconsin rushed for 281
yards against the Spartans last season but the Badgers have been a bit shaky on offense so
far this season while showing great vulnerability on defense in their toughest game. Michigan
State appeared poised for an upset win last week on the heels of their own upset loss the
previous week. It didn’t work out for the Spartans and the schedule ahead is daunting for a
team that won nine games last seas on. The Spartans host Michigan next week and then head
to Illinois so a rough start to the season could continue. Michigan State has been very
successful through the air so far this season and Wisconsin will aim to establish the running
game in a classic pass versus run match-up. Though there are some grave concerns with this
Badger team the preference is to back the running team. WISCONSIN BY 6
CLEMSON (-3) Tcu 2:30 PM
This match-up features what could be two of the top defenses in the nation. TCU already won
at Virginia this season and this will be another opportunity for a big non-conference win. With
BYU and Utah falling last week TCU now is holding the flame for the Mountain West as
expectations for this conference to produce BCS bowl teams has become common. Clemson
lost two weeks ago against Georgia Tech but much of the early scoring against Clemson
came on fluky plays. The Tigers dominated last week although the conditions aided the stingy
numbers. The Tigers have only lost once in the last 16 hom e games against non-conference
opponents but that number is inflated with far lesser caliber teams. TCU has allowed 35 points
in two games this season but the Frogs have been dominant and much of that scoring has
come after a lead has been developed. This is the big game on TCU’s schedule in nonconference
play as a win here would legitimize a potential run towards a major bowl bid
should the Frogs win the Mountain West. Clemson was a popular play -on team last week and
the Tigers delivered, which may leave them a bit overvalued this week . TCU BY 4
Rutgers (-3) MARYLAND 2:30 PM
Maryland could easily be 0-3 and last week’s loss show s how far behind this team is as it
came in a favorable situation. Maryland has allowed over 200 yards per game rushing through
three games while featuring some of the worst defensive rankings in the nation. In 2007
Maryland beat a then ranked #10 Rutgers team 34-24 and the Terrapins have a great history
of success at home in non-conference games though last week’s loss hurts that record.
Rutgers won by just eight last week but the Knights were in complete control. Rutgers
struggled on offense however and freshmen QB Tom Savage hit just eleven of his 28 passes
and the QB position remains a major concern after opening week starter Domenic Natale
struggled with interceptions. Maryland has been a dangerous home underdog and though the
results have been ugly for the Terps, they have potential in this match-up. Rutgers has
allowed 367 yards per game despite two cupcakes on the schedule. MARYLAND BY 3
Boise State (-16) BOWLING GREEN 6:00 PM
With BYU and Utah knocked out of the running, Boise State may be in the best position to
make an undefeated run to BCS bowl territory. The Broncos look like far and away the class
of the WAC but this will be a challenging non-conference road game, the second straight
week away from home. Last season Boise State scored just 20 points against the Falcons in a
home win but failed cover as neither offense had consistent production. Bowling Green
impressed in the first two weeks with an upset over Troy and a very tight loss against Missouri
but last week the Falcons were thoroughly out-gained on the ground in a loss at Marshall.
Bowling Green is a pass-first team but Boise State did a nice job against Fresno State’s
passing game last week. Against Miami of the MAC Boise completely dominated but the
Redhawks appear to be the worst team in the conference this season. Bowling Green has
been an impressive home underdog, covering in eleven of the last 14 and if there is a letdown
spot on the Boise schedule this might be it. Boise is 3-0 ATS this season however and fading
the Broncos in almost any situation has usually been a losing proposition. BOISE BY 19
TENNESSEE (-20½) Ohio 6:00 PM
Though Tennessee had just 213 yards last week many are praising the effort against the
Gators almost as if the Volunteers had won. Tennessee easily covered an inflated spread but
the Volunteers still displayed some of the same problems that haunted the team in the home
loss against UCLA and QB Jonathan Crompton appears to be severely limiting this squad.
Tennessee barely beat a MAC team last season winning 13-9 against Northern Illinois and
although the Volunteers have impressed defensively they have had problems on offense. In
fairness UCLA and Florida have outstanding defensive teams so there should be more
opportunities for the offense this week. Ohio had a big game last week to beat Cal-Poly and
the Bobcats are now winners of two straight. This is expected to be one of the better teams in
the MAC and a greatly improved squad and overlooking the Bobcats would be a big mistake
in a tricky non-conference game scheduled between two huge SEC contests. Tennessee has
not been a strong ATS performer and value may be back going against Tennes see this week
in a letdown spot following a huge game. TENNESSEE BY 10
EAST CAROLINA (-10) Central Florida 2:30 PM
The early season darling of 2008 has struggled in 2009 as East Carolina has dropped backto-
back games. The Pirates have faced three tough games in a brutal early season schedule
but the offense has really been out of sync, averaging just 268 yards per game with plenty of
key mistakes. Central Florida is not known for offense but the Knights did enough to win last
week and defense and strong special team play are trademarks of this team. Last season
these teams needed overtime to settle up as East Carolina won in Orlando, 13-10, and the
Pirates have had the advantage in this series. Central Florida has been a gritty underdog
however, including covers in 13 of the last 18 as road dogs. After three pretty big games to
open the year, East Carolina could letdown a bit even though this is the C-USA opener. The
Knights are very good against the run and ECU has not proven they can provide a consistent
passing attack that can pull away in this match-up. EAST CAROLINA BY 6
CINCINNATI (-14½) Fresno State 11:00 AM
Fresno State will take on anyone anywhere and they will face a tough early start game back
towards the eastern part of the country. The Bulldogs have now lost back-to-back games
despite playing very competitively against quality competition. Expected to take a dive this
season, Cincinnati has been one of the most impressive teams in the nation and two big road
wins are already on the resume this season. Brian Kelly is 24-6 S/U since taking over the
Bearcats and he should start to be mentioned among the coaching elite if he keeps up this run
for the program . Cincinnati is facing travel back from the west coast after a win at Oregon
State last week but Fresno State is in the same situation. Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in the last 15
home games while Fresno State has not fared as well in these situations as its reputation
suggests. Although Fresno had an extra day playing last Friday, it will be tough to follow -up a
difficult loss in a competitive game against Boise State, the perennial WAC champion. Going
against Cincinnati, even in situations that look problematic has been highly unprofitable and
the Bearcats have shown a lot of promise on offense with som e of the best numbers in the
nation so far, with surprisingly solid numbers on defense as well. CINCINNATI BY 17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-17) Akron 2:30 PM
There was no letdown for Central Michigan last week, cruising to a comfortable win against
Alcorn State. Akron missed in two opportunities against the Big Ten but the Zips still appear to
be one of the of the better teams in the MAC and this will be a key interdivision game in the
standings. Akron had turnover problems last week, with three giveaways leading to 21 points.
The last two meetings between these teams have been very close but these teams did not
meet last season. Central Michigan has been a successful home favorite and the Chippewas
have been the most consistently successful team in the MAC over the past few seasons.
Akron had to play last week without senior QB Chris Jacquemain who was suspended and
that the Zips stayed as close as they did speaks to the depth of this team though this will be a
tough match-up if the QB is still suspended. Akron is just 7-13 in the last 20 games on the
road and CMU is 8-2 the last ten as home favorites. CENTRAL BY 21
Lsu (-14) MISSISSIPPI STATE 11:20 AM
The Bulldogs won with relative ease last week against Vanderbilt, winning the yardage 341-
157 despite a narrow margin on the scoreboard. This week’s game provides a tougher
challenge but the Bulldogs will be at home. LSU has covered in 14 of the last 17 meetings
between these teams despite often being a large favorite in recent years. Last year was a
different story as MSU lost by just ten in Baton Rouge, capitalizing on turnovers to keep the
game close. LSU is 3-0 but the Tigers own the 90th ranked offense in the nation and the
defense has been far from dominant. The schedule was expected to limit LSU this season but
so far the team has not appeared to have elite personnel in place. Mississippi State has not
performed well as home underdogs and the offense will likely have trouble keeping up coming
off a big win. A much bigger game against Georgia is waiting next week for the Tigers but
even an incomplete performance will probably be good enough. LSU BY 24
IOWA STATE (-10½) Army 6:00 PM
It is a bit rare to see Army with a winning record at least in recent years and this will be
another game where the Knights have a legitimate chance. Army has one of the top rushing
teams in the nation and this has been a sound defensive team, albeit through a light schedule.
Iowa State picked up a convincing win last week but the Cyclones caught Kent in their first
game without star RB Jarvis. In three games Iowa State has turned the ball over 12 times and
it somewhat remarkable that this team has two wins given that number. Army covered against
Iowa State in 2005 and also played tight with Texas A&M in two of the last three years so this
can be a tricky match-up for a major conference school. Both teams are 2-1 with new coaches
in the early going but there will be underdog value on Army as this is a tough team to blowout
and a team that is much better than most likely realize. IOWA STATE BY 7
MEMPHIS (-3½) Marshall 12:00 PM
Both of these teams avoided starting 0-3 with wins last week and these are two squads that
have a chance in a fairly wide open C-USA East. Last season Marshall beat Memphis 17-16
in a game where the Marshall defense did a great job and last week’s impressive shutdown of
Bowling Green was a big boost for the Herd. Both of those games came at home however and
Marshall is 6-21-2 in the last 29 road games. Memphis mainly got it done through the air last
week and Tigers actually played much closer than the score suggested against a highly
ranked Mississippi team to open the season. Memphis did allow over 400 yards last week
against Tennessee-Martin however and this is a team that has allowed around 30 points per
game each of the last three years. The overall statistics are ugly for both of these squads but
Marshall could be an underdog with a rushing edge and the Herd has presented a decent
pass rush this season with eleven sacks in three games. MEMPHIS BY 2
TEXAS A&M (-15) Uab 6:00 PM
UAB is a threat as they are rushing for 230 yards per game. The Blazers have lost the last two
games but this is an improved team that could be competitive in most games despite just four
wins last season. There are still some concerns on defense and Texas A&M has been fairly
impressive with two convincing wins, though the competition has not been a challenge. Given
the tough division play that the Aggies will face, A&M needs every win they can get so there
will be no looking past UAB. A&M actually owns the #1 offense in the nation averaging 589
yards per game though the numbers are a bit skewed having played only two games. This
may be a slightly increased challenge but sill not a clear indication of where the Aggies may
be in a bigger national picture. Still for a team that struggled mightily against the weakest
teams on the schedule last year the start has been encouraging. Last week’s win over Utah
State was not as close as the final score indicated and the Aggies have shown the potential
for blowouts this season. TEXAS A&M BY 27
KANSAS (-13½) Southern Mississippi 11:00 AM
The Jayhawks struggled early but eventually pulled away to quietly move to 3-0. The schedule
has not justified more mention for the Jayhawks but they have taken care of business in a
schedule that will get significantly tougher in the second half of the season. Southern Miss is
also 3-0 although the Golden Eagles have had to survive close calls each of the past two
weeks. No one talks about Conference USA in the discussion of BCS busters but Southern
Miss is a veteran team that could have a great season and a win here might elevate them to
consideration. The Golden Eagles have out-gained foes by over 200 yards per game on
average this season and this has been a very tough team to run against. Southern Miss has
not yet played a road game however so this will be a stiff test and last week’s win over an
ACC team will make this a tough follow -up game. Kansas has been an impressive home
favorite, now having covered in 12 of the last 13 attempts but the Jayhawks are going to be an
inflated favorite last week as they delivered as a heavily bet favorite last week. The Golden
Eagles may have what it takes to provide a scare here. KANSAS BY 10
AIR FORCE (-16½) San Diego State 1:00 PM
Last season Air Force won 35-10 in San Diego with a dominant defensive effort. The Falcons
lead the nation in rushing through three games and the defensive numbers have also been
excellent though the schedule has not been overly impressive. San Diego State lost at Idaho
last week and this is a program that has fallen to historic lows. This will also be the third week
on the road through the first four weeks of the season and it is unlikely that the Aztecs can
contain the rushing attack of Air Force. Air Force has covered in six of the last seven games
as home favorites and though the Falcons have not often been favored this steeply it would be
difficult to back SDSU in this situation. Idaho converted nine third down plays last week and
the Aztecs will have a hard time getting stops. AIR FORCE BY 28
Vanderbilt (-7½) RICE 7:00 PM
Rice has allowed at least 41 points in each game this season so a Vanderbilt team that posted
just a lone field goal last week should be provided better opportunities. The Owls featured a
very productive offense last season but it is clear this year’s team is not on the same level.
Vandy was an impressive bowl team a year ago but it will be a difficult climb to get to the
postseason this year especially after losing a winnable home game last week. The
Commodores are a strong rushing team but QB Larry Smith completed just 12 of 32 passes
last week as the offense continually stalled. Rice has struggled this season but this is a
program that has delivered ATS success in the home underdog role and the Owls are likely to
score some points. It will be tough lay points with this Vandy offense. VANDY BY 6
AUBURN (-30½) Ball State 1:00 PM
After losing twice all season last year Ball State already has three losses this year and it will
continue to be a tough transition. The Cardinals severely out-gained Army last week for a step
in the right direction but turnovers were devastating. It will be tough for Auburn to not overlook
this game coming off a big revenge win over West Virginia last w eek and facing Tennessee
next on the schedule. Auburn had previously struggled as a home favorite but the Tigers are
3-0 S/U and ATS this year and this will be another home game. Auburn gave up a lot of
yardage last week but forced turnovers to take the win and Auburn has been an impressive
offensive team so far this season though they were lucky last week. AUBURN BY 28
Unlv (-5½) WYOMING 2:00 PM
Wyoming is a much different team at home and the Cowboys had won four in a row in this
series before a narrow loss last season in Las Vegas. Against Big XII competition the last two
games Wyoming has scored just ten points but the defense has kept the respectably close.
The Cowboys are 12-5 the last 17 games as home underdogs but the QB situation is a bit
unsettled with three different players seeing time under center last week. UNLV has had nailbitters
the last two weeks, falling short against Oregon State but hanging on against Hawaii.
UNLV QB Omar Clayton was healthy enough to play last week and though he posted strong
numbers he also made a few costly mistakes. The Runnin’ Rebels gave up over 500 yards
last week and UNLV was thoroughly out-gained against Oregon State despite the close final.
This was a very even match-up statistically last season. WYOMING BY 3
ALABAMA (-15½) Arkansas 2:30 PM
The Crimson Tide defense has allowed just 185 yards per game and the offensive numbers
have so far been impressive in a year where there were some question marks on that side of
the ball. Alabama has won 17 consecutive SEC openers and last season the Crimson Tide
won 49-14 on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks showed some promise last week
with big production on offense but it was not enough as Georgia prevailed. Alabama rushed
for 328 yards last year in this match-up and that advantage should be available this season as
well. The Tide dominated the yardage but battled in a close game in the one true test they
have faced against Virginia Tech and even in a loss, last week’s game should have built some
confidence for a Razorbacks team that failed to compete against several of the top teams last
season. Alabama is 6-18 in the last 24 games as home favorites. ALABAMA BY 10
Florida (-22½) KENTUCKY 5:00 PM
The Gators were not overly impressive last week when many expected a huge blowout but
beating Tennessee is still a quality SEC victory. Kentucky has had some success in this series
and the Wildcats are off to a great start to the season, still undefeated and coming off a big
rivalry game win. Kentucky lost by just eight the last time they hosted Florida but in Gainesville
lost 63-5 last season. Defending the run was a problem last week for Kentucky which could be
problematic against the Gators. Florida has reached a point where they will be inflated
favorites in every game but this is not a team that is worth trying to beat either. The Gators
have allowed just 19 points in three games and defense will continue to be the key to success.
There could be a bit of a letdown this week for Florida but Kentucky should be overmatched.
Kentucky has been a decent home underdog and could hang around. FLORIDA BY 21
GEORGIA (-12) Arizona State 6:00 PM
This was a hyped early season game last year that quickly turned into a laugher as Georgia
dominated and the Sun Devils removed much of the cachet for the match-up by being upset
the previous week. Georgia has allowed 78 points the last two weeks but the Bulldogs have
won both games. Turnovers have been a serious problem but this is a team that has learned
how to win and has been tested like few other teams through an insanely difficult early season
schedule. Arizona State has projected much worse than last year’s team but the Sun Devils
were huge disappointments a year ago, winning just five games. ASU has looked good so far
in 2009 but the schedule has been very light and not much should be read into the top ranking
statistically on defense. Georgia has played a ton of big games while this could be an
overlooked match-up after the easy win a year ago. GEORGIA BY 7
California (-7) OREGON 2:30 PM
Both Pac-10 contenders faced difficult games last week but both teams prevailed and with
USC already suffering a conference loss there is renewed hope for all the other teams
involved. Last season Cal won 26-16 at home in a fairly even statistical game that featured
sloppy weather. The Bears have beaten Oregon each of the past three years and led by RB
Jahvid Best this is a team that should be considered not just a Pac-10 contender but a
national threat. A huge game with USC is waiting next week for the Bears but there will be no
overlooking Oregon, where Coach Tedford was previously an assistant. It has been a shaky
season for the Ducks offensively, averaging just 25 points and 273 yards per game so far
under new coach Chip Kelly. Last season Oregon posted over 41 points per game but in
fairness the early season schedule has been extremely tough. Though Cal has been
impressive, this is not a team that has delivered considerable road success and this could be
a tough spot coming off a big road win in a game that was much tougher than anticipated last
week in Minnesota. Oregon could have its best output this week. OREGON BY 3
FLORIDA STATE (-14) South Florida 11:00 AM
This game sets up as a potential upset spot as Florida State is coming off a surprise thrashing
of highly ranked BYU on the road last week. The Seminoles showed off great speed in a
blowout win and now must face a Bulls team that has grown in stature on the Florida scene. A
big problem for South Florida exists however as long-time starting QB Matt Grothe ended his
season with injury last week in a blowout win over Charleston Southern. USF is 3-0 this
season with dominant numbers but the schedule has been a joke. This has been the key
game that the program has been waiting a long time for so an inspired effort should still be in
order. Freshmen B.J. Daniels played well in relief last week and USF has at times featured a
very impressive defense in recent years. The Bulls are 6-1 in the last seven games as
underdogs while Florida State has been a horrible home favorite. FLORIDA STATE BY 3
GEORGIA TECH (-2½) North Carolina 11:00 AM
The prolific rushing attack for the Yellow Jackets is proving much less effective against quality
competition in year two for Coach Johnson and North Carolina will be up for this game. The
Tar Heels won 28-7 at home in this match-up last season despite a Georgia Tech yardage
edge and UNC is now 3-0 after back-to-back non-conference wins over quality competition.
Right now the Tar Heels feature the 7th best rush defense in the nation and though that is sure
to elevate after this game Georgia Tech could face an uphill battle. The win over Clemson was
fortunate for the Jackets and UNC has been a dynamite underdog in recent years. North
Carolina has covered each of the last five meetings between these teams and the Tar Heels
look like a complete team that will continue to rise in the rankings. UNC BY 6
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-16) Idaho 2:30 PM
The Huskies made a comeback rally against Wisconsin in the opener but fell just short and
put together a great start last week against a flat Purdue squad and hung on for the upset.
Two years ago the Huskies won just two games and one of those wins was at Idaho, but the
Vandals are off to a 2-1 start this year with two S/U wins as dogs. Idaho has not been an easy
team to run against and the offense has shown improvement after averaging just 19 points per
game last year. This looks like a tricky spot for NIU coming off one of the bigger wins in recent
memory and now laying points at home. The Huskies have failed to cover in eight straight
games as double-digit favorites and Idaho is an improved squad. NIU BY 10
BYU (-14½) Colorado State 5:00 PM
Recovering from last week’s loss will not be easy for BYU as national aims were dashed in a
blow out home loss. The Cougars still feature a favorable MWC schedule ahead and a BCS
bowl is not completely out of the question though the once growing national title game talk can
be dismissed. This was a heck of match-up last season as BYU won 45-42 in Fort Collins as
turnovers helped the Rams stay close before BYU took the lead in the final seconds. Colorado
State is quietly 3-0 and although the narrow escape against Weber State two weeks ago left
much to be desired the other two wins have been impressive. Colorado State has benefited
from one of the top turnover margins in the nation so far this season and the Rams could be
vulnerable against the pass though they have been strong against the run. Given the
implications of last week’s loss this could be a tough follow-up game for BYU and Colorado
State appears to be a returning to power in this conference after a few down years. BYU BY 7
Pittsburgh (PK) NC STATE 2:30 PM
The Panthers have been an excellent statistical team this season and wins in tricky spots the
last two weeks have been impressive for a squad that has been upset prone in recent years.
NC State has had back-to-back blowout wins against FCS competition following the awful
opening effort which the Wolfpack scored just three points and had no rhythm on offense. The
defensive numbers have been very impressive for NC State but the schedule has been far
from it. NC State has been a dangerous home underdog and Pittsburgh does not feature a
strong past track record in non-conference road games, although the Panthers have been a
strong recent performer away from home. NC State can not be trusted based on success the
past two weeks and this will be a big game for the Big East and a Panthers team that is not
getting much publicity despite being in position for a very strong year. PITTSBURGH BY 7
STANFORD (-7) Washington 8:00 PM
Washington gave up 250 yards on the ground last week but greatly benefited from spotty QB
play from USC in a historic upset. The letdown factor will be huge and Stanford is a team on
the rise. Stanford won at Washington last season and the Cardinal have performed well
through a challenging opening schedule. This will be a key game for a veteran Cardinal team
looking to make a bowl run and though Washington may have the edge at QB, Stanford
freshmen Andrew Luck has exceeded expectations so far. Stanford has covered in seven
consecutive home games and is sure to have value on its side after Washington’s big win.
Washington has opened with each of the first three games at home this season so this will be
a whole new challenge for a team that has had a lot happen quickly. Stanford has covered in
five of the last seven in this series. STANFORD BY 13
KENT STATE (-9) Miami, OH 6:00 PM
Kent has scored just 13 points per game this season with just 83 rushing yards per game as
the running game is now shorthanded. The Flashes have been solid defensively this year but
this is not a team that has been trustworthy laying points, including going 2-12 ATS the past
14 games as favorites. Miami scored 26 points after being held scoreless in the first two
weeks but none of the scoring occurred until the second half with the Redhawks already down
35-0. Miami has one of the worst turnover margins in the nation and very poor numbers on
both sides of the ball. Miami is also now playing a third consecutive road game. Kent won 54-
21 in Oxford last season but the Redhawks have had overwhelming success in this series.
Miami will be getting a lot of points and the team could have some confidence after finally
getting some scoring late last week. Kent is a team that is tough to lay points with. KENT BY 4
UTAH (-11½) Louisville 6:30 PM
The warming seat of Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe nearly got some relief last week but
the Cardinals fell just short against Kentucky in back-and-forth rivalry game. This will be a
tough match-up as Louisville faces Utah off its first loss. Teams have been able to run
successfully against the Utes this season and after falling behind early at Oregon, a late rally
was not enough to keep the nation’s longest winning streak going. Louisville actually outgained
Kentucky last week and settling for field goals after solid 3rd quarter drives proved to be
the difference in a narrow loss. Utah has won all three meetings between these teams and
Louisville has been an underachieving underdog but it will be a tough rebound situation for
Utah following the first loss and the Utes have been suspect defensively. Catching decent
underdog value Louisville may be better than anticipated. UTAH BY 7
Miami, FL (-1½)VIRGINIA TECH 2:30 PM
The Virginia Tech did little all day against Nebraska in a big national game last week but the
Hokies put together a few quick big plays when it counted for a miraculous win in the closing
seconds. Nebraska kicked fiv e field goals in the game and one conversion to the end zone
would have been the difference but the Hokies held firm defensively when it mattered.
Nebraska won the yardage battle but the offense struggled as the Hokies still possess a
dominant defense even if the overall numbers do not look that impressive at this point through
a very challenging early season schedule. Miami is two-for-two in big primetime games and
the Hurricanes completely dominated last week against a Georgia Tech squad that had
handled them the previous year. Last season Miami pulled out a win at home in this match-up
16-14 in a defensive battle. Opponents have been able to run on the Hokies but the pass
defense has been excellent which could cause problems for the U, which has been reliant on
the air attack this season. Miami may be back on the national radar but Va Tech never left and
remains an elite program that is 33-5 S/U at home the last six+ years. VIRGINIA TECH BY 10
Notre Dame (-7½) PURDUE 7:00 PM
Following a hard fought loss at Oregon, the Boilers letdown with an upset loss at home last
week. Purdue has been productive on offense but the defense is giving up 32 points and 434
yards per game. Notre Dame has not been great defensively but through a tougher schedule
the Irish have been far stingier and the Notre Dame passing attack has been among the best
in the nation. That receiving corps takes a big hit with the loss of Floyd however. While Notre
Dame always seems to struggle with Michigan State as they did last week, Purdue has been a
more manageable opponent in recent years with ATS wins in six of the last nine. Purdue was
more vulnerable on the ground last week and overall the Boilers defense does not appear
ready to make stops in this match-up. Notre Dame walked a thin line last week but got the win
they needed and everything is still in place for the Irish. Purdue has not fared well as a home
underdog. Many want to still doubt the Irish and the last two week’s offered valid reasons, but
Purdue appears to be a big drop in the level of competition this week. NOTRE DAME BY 13
TEXAS (-34) Utep 2:30 PM
Last season in a highly anticipated home game for the Miners, UTEP did not come close
against the Longhorns. So far 2009 has been a tough go for the Miners but last week a much
needed win may have the team on track. Texas faced a hyped revenge game that was closer
than many expected last week. Texas has been a dominant offensive team on the season but
the defense has given some reason to believe this may not be the national contender that
many are anticipating. Texas has mainly performed well as a large favorite but last year’s
game was actually very even statistically despite a 29-point deficit. This will be a huge game
on the schedule for a veteran Miners squad and with the pressure off and a steep line UTEP
might be playable here. UTEP is 12-5 in the las t 17 games as double-digit dogs and despite
the slow start this team should be one of the top C-USA representatives. Texas has bigger
games ahead and this has not been a dominant defensive team. TEXAS BY 27
PENN STATE (-10) Iowa 7:00 PM
With others around them losing, Penn State has climbed to a strong position in the national
rankings although the Lions have faced a very weak schedule. Penn State has failed to cover
in all three games though they have never been seriously threatened and the offense has
been productive enough and the defense has allowed no more than seven points in any
game. Iowa has had some ups and downs already this year but last week was a big nonconference
win against an Arizona team that should be highly competitive in the Pac-10. Iowa
didn’t do anything remarkable on offense but the defense held firm. Iowa is also 3-0 despite
taking some heat for the narrow opening win. The Hawkeyes beat Penn State to end an
undefeated run for the Lions last year so this will be a key game and the first true test of the
season. Iowa has enjoyed great success in this series but it is very tough to go against Penn
State at home, even though that has been a profitable proposition so far this year. This is a
different scenario and Penn State is ready to prove it warrants a lofty ranking even though the
schedule raises a lot of questions. PENN STATE BY 10
HOUSTON (-1) Texas Tech 8:15 PM
The Cougars have had two weeks to unravel after the huge upset of Oklahoma State and
another opportunity is waiting for Houston. A win here could put Houston in a BCS bowl
driver’s seat should they manage an undefeated run in Conference USA. Texas Tech played
with Texas last week despite the loss and the Red Raiders still possess a great passing
offense. This game should feature a lot of throws and potentially big numbers on both sides as
these are two of the top offensive teams in the nation. The Red Raiders have been a capable
road favorite in past years and Houston may be getting a bit too much respect as their upset
win came in a very favorable situation. Houston allowed over 30 points per game last season
and they will have the full attention of the Red Raiders knowing the upset risk. This will be a
great chance for the Cougars to make a national dent while hosting a marquee opponent but
Texas Tech is capable of posting huge numbers and the Red Raiders do not appear to have
dropped off that far from a year ago. TEXAS TECH BY 13
NEW MEXICO (-9½) New Mexico State 9:00 PM
This should be New Mexico’s best opportunity for a win but the Lobos have posted
horrendous numbers through three games in a dramatic transition year. New Mexico has won
six straight in this series and the Lobos have faced quality competition each of the first three
weeks of the season making for the tough start. The schedule has been unimpressive but
New Mexico State has run the ball effectively this year and a greater defensive focus has led
to a few more stops. New Mexico State is 11-46 S/U on the road the last eight years and this
battle of first year coaches that could sorely use wins could be closely contested. Neither team
has taken care of the ball well this season so there are likely to be some more mistakes in this
match-up but the experience edge should side with New Mexico even though the system has
changed significantly. New Mexico ran the ball well last week against Air Force and if
mistakes at the QB position can be avoided the Lobos should win. NEW MEXICO BY 10
USC (-43) Washington State 9:15 PM
After the upset loss last week most will expect a resounding rebound win from the Trojans.
While Washington State is the perfect opponent for such a performance the ineffectiveness at
the QB position last week poses a serious concern. Against a defense that is allowing 537
yards per game however the Trojans should have no trouble moving the ball. Last season
USC won 69-0 in Pullman and the Trojans were dominant defensively in that game as WSU
never had a legitimate scoring chance. USC has performed well in the huge favorite role and
coming off a Pac-10 loss last year the Trojans crushed Oregon 44-10. USC has covered in
five of the last six in this series despite laying a ton of points and USC has been an
outstanding statistical team this year despite playing a very tough schedule with two hard road
games. Looking ahead to a showdown with California next week is a possibility but going
against USC at home is typically a problematic situation. Washington State was extremely
fortunate to get a comeback win last week, aided by a big turnover. In a season where a
winless year was a possibility getting a W early in the year is a huge relief and this will also be
the first road game of the season for a turnover prone squad that has struggled through a very
weak schedule so far this year. USC BY 48
Arizona (-2½) OREGON STATE 6:35 PM
Both of these Pac-10 squads suffered tough losses last week and last year these teams
battled to a 19-17 Oregon State win in Tucson. Oregon State still pulled out the win last year
without their starting QB and star RB and the Beavers have been an unsung performer with
an impressive Pac -10 mark the last three years. This is the second straight week on the road
for Arizona with long travel involved in both games and the Wildcats have covered just once in
the last ten meetings of this series. The Beavers still maintain a great home field edge despite
a loss last week to a Cincinnati team that may be better than expected. Arizona has been a
strong rushing team so far this season but those statistics have been inflated in weaker nonconference
games. Stopping the run is the strength of the Beavers and Arizona may not have
the weapons to win a road game through the air. OREGON STATE BY 4
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-5) UL-Monroe 3:00 PM
This will be the third road game in four weeks for the Warhawks and long travel has been
involved in the last two weeks. Last season Monroe rushed for 153 yards per game which
makes them a threat as an underdog and this year the team is averaging 193 yards per game.
Florida Atlantic won by one at Monroe last season in an even statistical game. The Owls
connected in the final seconds after Monroe missed an opportunity to put the game away. The
visitor has had great success in this series and Florida Atlantic’s performance last week
against South Carolina may take a toll as the Owls played well before running out of gas in the
second half. Florida Atlantic has been the superior team in recent years and may be overly
favored against a veteran Monroe squad that has been able to move the ball reasonably well
against two very tough non-conference foes in addition to delivering a blowout against a FCS
team. Florida Atlantic is winless and this may be a tougher than expected spot to get that first
win as this has been a close series . FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 3
NEBRASKA (-26½) Louisiana 6:00 PM
This is the third Sun Belt game for Nebraska as the Huskers have won by 46 and 29 against
two teams that project higher than Louisiana in the conference. After knocking off Kansas
State in a big upset the Ragin’ Cajuns made LSU work for a win last week. In a third straight
game against a major conference foe this could be a tough situation however. Nebraska may
be emotionally drained after a very tough loss last week but the Huskers should find plenty of
open passing lanes in this match-up. Nebraska’s next game is a big one against Missouri but
they have an extra week before that match-up and this will be a critical bounce back spot for
the team. The Huskers have been v ery tough at home but in this situation off a tough loss this
may be too steep of a line considering how well Louisiana has played in recent years against
bigger schools. There will be no overlooking ULL but Nebraska could letdown after the first
loss of the year. NEBRASKA BY 20
NAVY (-27½) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
Western Kentucky would have been a viable Sun Belt team at the FBS level a few years ago
but the Hilltoppers are caught in a very tough transition year as the team is down significantly.
Navy could not score a big upset last week and this should be by far the most favorable
match-up faced for the Midshipmen so far all season as the schedule has been very tough by
Navy standards. Navy’s defense has held up against quality competition and at 1-2 despite
playing well it will be critical to get off to a strong start and put this game away. Navy has not
performed well in the home favorite role as its style makes for a more effective underdog but
Western Kentucky is coming off three straight lopsided losses including last week against FCS
Central Arkansas. Central Arkansas is a quality team that is one of the best at that level in the
region and also nearly beat Hawaii earlier this season. Still it will be a depressing picture for
the Hilltoppers and the schedule will not get any easier this week. NAVY BY 31
ARKANSAS STATE (-1) Troy 3:30 PM
After a disappointing start to the season Troy got back on track last week and remains the
favorite in the Sun Belt. The Trojans won 35-9 against Arkansas State last season but this will
still be one of the key match-ups in the conference. Arkansas State is rushing for 250 yards
per game as they had decent production against Nebraska and the Red Wolves have had two
weeks to prepare for arguably the biggest game of the season on the schedule. Arkansas
State is 15-7 ATS as home underdogs since ’98 and Troy has underachieved so far this
season leaving some serious questions despite lofty projections. Troy’s defense is allowing
445 yards per game and even with the Florida game out of the equation this has not been the
team that was expected to dominate the Sun Belt. ARKANSAS STATE BY 4
Middle Tennessee State (-7½) NORTH TEXAS 6:00 PM
For the second year in a row MTSU knocked off Maryland and that game came off a win over
Memphis the previous week. The Blue Raiders should have great confidence but this is a
team that has not lived up to its billing in Sun Belt play in recent years despite often making
noise in non-conference games. Last season The Blue Raiders won 52-13 against North
Texas but the Mean Green are greatly improved. Without QB Dodge, UNT struggled last week
but there is no shame in a lopsided loss to Alabama. If Dodge is back North Texas could be a
dangerous underdog in this match-up and defensively the team is much better than the
numbers indicate. MTSU could fall a bit flat after two huge wins and now playing third road
game in four weeks. Last year’s game between these teams was much closer statistically than
the final score suggests and MTSU is reliant on a passing game that has shown some
inconsistency so far even with the big wins. MTSU BY 6
Toledo (PK) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6:00 PM
FIU is 0-2 but both games have been on the road against major conference foes and the
Panthers have taken the cover in both games. The statistics look grim relative to Toledo’s big
production but it is not a fair comparison at this point in the schedule. The Rockets did not
come close in last week’s in-state match-up but the win over Colorado and the big numbers
against Purdue show s what Toledo can do. This is not a team that has been successful on the
road however and FIU was tough at home last year. The Panthers have a veteran team that
won five games last year and beat Toledo 35-16 on the road a year ago. Turnovers were
critical in that game but this seems like another favorable spot for FIU. FIU BY 4
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 TENNESSEE (+2½) over NY Jets
RATING 4 PITTSBURGH (-4½) over Cincinnati
RATING 3 SEATTLE (-1½) over Chicago
RATING 2 GREEN BAY (-6½) over St. Louis
RATING 1 BUFFALO (+4) over New Orleans
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and all lines are obviously subject to change
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2009
NY JETS (-2½) Tennessee (37½) 12:00 PM
The Titans could easily be 2-0 as they have lost on late field goals in both games. Tennessee
has been very tough against the run but both Pittsburgh and Houston posted big days in the
air against the Titans defense that has not featured the same level of pass rush as in past
years. New York has been the surprise team of the season and last week’s win was
impressive as QB Sanchez is proving legit but more impressive has been the New York
defense. New York could face a letdown after pouring so much into last week’s game and
coming through with a huge win. If this game was played in week 1 the Titans surely would
have been favored and the losses came against two quality opponents. TITANS BY 3
HOUSTON (-4½) Jacksonville (47) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars were burned early by a blocked field goal last week in a game that ended up very
even statistically despite a 14-point margin. Jacksonville is now 0-2 but this is a much better
team than currently projected. Houston caught a few breaks to avoid the 0-2 hole and the
Texans could have some success passing again in this match-up. Jacksonville has not
performed well in this series historically but this will be a desperate situation for the Jaguars
and Houston has allowed 911 yards in two games. Trusting Houston laying points is
dangerous until a better defensive effort can be witnessed. JAGUARS BY 3
PHILADELPHIA (NL) Kansas City 12:00 PM
The Eagles posted big yardage last week but could not keep pace with the Saints and in a
NFC that looks much tougher this season Philadelphia can not afford another early season
loss, no matter who is at QB. Philadelphia was the beneficiary of turnovers in week one but
things went the other way last week. Kansas City was burned by turnovers as well as the
Chiefs had a big yardage edge against Oakland. The Chiefs finally put together a late scoring
drive to take the lead but Oakland responded and did the same thing to steal the win. The
Chiefs are 0-2 S/U and ATS but they have been in position to win fairly late in both games. QB
Cassel had a few mistakes in his debut but this offense has shown some promise.
Unfortunately Kansas City will play the NFC East in four straight games so getting the first win
could take a while. It is tough to call this game without the QB information. EAGLES BY 10
BALTIMORE (-13) Cleveland (39) 12:00 PM
The Ravens may be the team to beat in the AFC as the Chargers, Patriots, and Steelers all
took losses last week. Baltimore QB Flacco has been impressive and the Baltimore RB
committee provides a balance that few teams can match, or stop. Cleveland has looked the
most hopeless through two weeks with very limited offensive production and a complete
inability to stop the run. The Browns have allowed over 400 yards on the ground in two games
and the Ravens will be a very tough match-up. Baltimore is not what they once were on
defense but the offense has made up the difference and this has been a very good team in
the home favorite role. This will be a popular play but Baltimore is the pick. RAVENS BY 17
NY Giants (-7) TAMPA BAY (44) 12:00 PM
The Buccaneers are now 0-2 as early turnovers proved costly last week. The opposition has
been tough and it will not get any easier this week against the Giants. Tampa Bay moved the
ball effectively last week but falling behind early took away the running game that should be
the strong point of this team. New York needed a late rally to win last week despite owning a
4-0 turnover edge and although the Giants are 2-0 they have been far from dominant in two
tough division games. This could be a tricky spot for New York facing a second straight road
game off a big win Sunday night and the Bucs have historically been a strong home underdog
including covers in 16 of the last 22 instances. GIANTS BY 4
Washington (-6½) DETROIT (38½) 12:00 PM
The Redskins managed to avoid a 0-2 hole with a narrow win over St. Louis but the inability to
put points up has been scary for Washington. Detroit is 0-2 but New Orleans and Minnesota
look like two of the top teams in the NFC and the Lions played respectably close in both
games before fading away late. The Lions had 129 yards on the ground against Minnesota
which is an impressive feat but somewhat related to the rookie QB having his chances limited
after some early season mistakes. Washington is a tough team to trust as a road favorite and
this line is begging bettors to lay the points. REDSKINS BY 3
Green Bay (-6½) ST. LOUIS (41) 12:00 PM
The Packers were one of the most impressive preseason teams but there have been some
serious issues exposed in two weeks. Green Bay allowed Cincinnati to run the ball effectively
and the pass protection was problematic as the Bengals were able to create a lot of pressure.
St. Louis has done a decent job defensively but it will be tough to win averaging 3.5 points
scored per game. The Rams are just 6-15 ATS in the last 21 home games and there will not
exactly be resounding enthusiasm for the home opener that will probably feature a decent
amount of Packer fans traveling. Green Bay may be overvalued after two unimpressive games
but this is not the spot to catch them. The Packers can score points and the Rams will not be
able to keep up in a shootout. PACKERS BY 13
MINNESOTA (-7) San Francisco (40½) 12:00 PM
The Vikings are 2-0 and after slow starts in each game Minnesota has pulled away. Minnesota
opened with the first two games on the road but they also faced two of the worst teams in the
league. San Francisco is also 2-0 with a strong start in the NFC West with two division wins.
The 49ers have not been flashy on offense but RB Gore had a huge game last week and QB
Hill has avoided key mistakes that have plagued this team in the past. Hill is a former Vikings
back-up so he will be comfortable in the dome. Minnesota has been able to ride the running
game and capitalize on opponents mistakes but the 49ers defense may force the ball into the
air a bit more and there could be some issues. VIKINGS BY 3
NEW ENGLAND (-4) Atlanta (45) 12:00 PM
The Patriots probably should be 0-2 and they will face an Atlanta team that has lived up to the
hype with an impressive 2-0 start against two teams that won divisions last season. This will
be the first road game for the Falcons however but New England has been a lousy home
favorite the last two years. With a limited running game the Patriots could have trouble in this
match-up but Atlanta’s defense has not been fairly tested yet this season. The Falcons could
have some problems in the secondary and New England is capable of bouncing back with a
much better game plan after two ugly performances. The Patriots have not been this small of
a hom e favorite with Brady in the lineup since the home opener in 2007. PATRIOTS BY 7
Chicago (-1½) SEATTLE 3:05 PM
With QB Hasselbeck banged up the Seahawks will have some concerns but back-up Wallace
has some experience and has been with the team for a long time. Seattle did struggle
offensively last week and stopping the run will be a major concern after letting the Niners run
wild last week. The Bears got the win they needed with a late rally against Pittsburgh but the
tough opening schedule will continue with long travel out west. Chicago has not been able to
run the ball but the defense proved it can still be very effective even with a few key injuries.
Seattle remains one of the top home teams in the NFL with one of the few remaining home
field advantages and the Bears could letdown after a big win. SEAHAWKS BY 7
New Orleans (-4) BUFFALO 3:05 PM
The Saints have scored 48 points in each of the first two games and they travel again this
week back up to the northeast. The Bills caught a lot of breaks last week but still it has been
an impressive showing through two games and this has historically been a tough place to
play. The Saints have had huge numbers on offense but the defense has created seven
turnovers which have set up many of the extra scores. New Orleans has not proven it can
grind out a game and there have been mistakes on the offensive end that have not been
damaging yet. The Bills will play as home underdogs and the Saints will catch a lot of public
action here which could make this a dangerous spot. BILLS BY 3
SAN DIEGO (NL) Miami 3:15 PM
The Dolphins are coming off a critical Monday night game while the Chargers suffered a tough
home loss and may be off to another slow September start. With RB Tomlinson out the
running game had just 53 yards last week though QB Rivers had big numbers this team is
much better suited with more balance. Miami has covered in six in a row against San Diego
and although the Dolphins will have a hard time matching last year’s eleven wins, they are not
a worse team. The Chargers have failed in many recent home games and this team may be
overrated again, particularly at home and if Miami is 0-2. CHARGERS BY 3
Pittsburgh (-4½) CINCINNATI (37) 3:15 PM
The Steelers have had great recent success in this series and though the Steelers were
nearly 2-0 with a couple of costly missed field goals, they benefited from misses in a week 1
win and in reality Pittsburgh is not far from being 0-2. The Steelers have won and covered in
nine of the last eleven in this series and the Bengals may be getting too much credit for a big
win last week in Green Bay. Denver shut down the Bengals in week 1 and Cincinnati’s offense
is not ready to be trusted in this match-up. STEELERS BY 10
OAKLAND (-2½) Denver 3:15 PM
The Raiders managed to win last week with a late scoring drive after very limited production
on offense. Denver is a surprising 2-0 team that has delivered an unbelievable defensive
turnaround but the Broncos have faced two suspect opponents. Denver has failed in five of
the last six ATS against the Raiders and the Broncos were very ineffective on offense in their
last road game before being bailed out in the miracle finish. Oakland’s defense has stood tall
this season with commendable efforts and the Raiders should have some success running the
ball in this match-up. The Raiders look odd favored over a 2-0 team but don’t fall for it as
Denver is still a team with a lot of questions. RAIDERS BY 6
Indianapolis (NL) ARIZONA 7:20 PM
The Colts have not been impressive road favorites and they will lay points in a tough venue for
a second consecutive week. Facing long travel off a short week could be a problematic
situation and Arizona was able to bounce back from a shaky opener with a win last week. The
Colts have lost some punch offensively and although the Indianapolis defense can still be
effective this game will present some problematic match-ups should the Cardinals exploit
them. Arizona will be priced cheaply despite still being one of the most impressive offense
teams, and a team that appears to have added a complimentary running game to the mix with
decent results on the ground through two weeks. CARDINALS BY 4
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2009
DALLAS (-9½) Carolina (46) 7:35 PM
The Cowboys will play in primetime for the second straight week and a little more familiarity
with the surroundings might eliminate some of the costly mistakes. Dallas has not been sharp
defensively through two weeks last week ’s final drive came a little too easily and inevitably last
week for the Giants. Carolina cut down on mistakes and posted a great offensive game but
still ended up as the loser and the Panthers are already halfway to the losses they had all of
last season. Carolina has failed in seven of the last eight against Dallas S/U and the Panthers
are reeling in what will likely be a 0-3 start. COWBOYS BY 13
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Undefeated 10+ dogs: At least 3-0 DD underdogs
PLAY ON: Any college football undefeated double-digit
underdog in Game 4 or later.
17-9-1, 65.3% since 2002
PLAY ON: Southern Miss, South Florida, Colorado State, & Iowa
Tighten It: Teams going against teams with at least one loss are 9-2, 82%
Fits: South Florida & Colorado State (vs. Florida State & BYU)
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Week 3 Home Opener: Teams starting with 2 on the road
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL team in game 3 that had to play
the first two weeks on the road
45-28-2, 61.6% since 1985
PLAY AGAINST: Minnesota, St. Louis
(PLAY ON: Green Bay, San Francisco)
Tighten It: If the team is 0-2 in this situation the system is 19-9-1, 70.4%
Fits: St. Louis (Play On: Green Bay)
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Florida at Kentucky
The Gators are accustomed to posting huge numbers in blowout
wins which will force a higher number on this game. This could be a
lethargic Gators squad coming off a big win and also batting rumors
of the flu spreading around the team. Kentucky also enters this
game off a huge rivalry win so expecting both offenses to be a bit
flat makes sense. After allowing 63 points to Florida last season the
Wildcats will be focused on a much better defensive effort.
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Falcons at Patriots
Atlanta’s scoring has been greatly aided by turnovers in two games
and the Falcons have not rushed the ball as effectively as last
season. New England is clearly not near the level of play of two
years ago, or even last season and the Patriots are getting forced
into 3rd and long situations with a very limited rushing presence. New
England’s opening game barely pushed ‘over’ with a late scoring
flurry and last week’s game stayed well ‘under’. The ‘under’ was 6-2
in Atlanta road games last season and this will be the first road
game of the season for the Falcons.