Newsletters: 11/18 to 11/25

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET


KEY RELEASES

BUFFALO by 8 over Bowling Green (Friday)
NORTHWESTERN by 9 over Illinois
VANDERBILT by 17 over Tennessee
MISSISSIPPI by 5 over Lsu



*Buffalo 34 - BOWLING GREEN 26—Hot Buffalo has won 4 straight,
as QB Drew Willy hasn’t thrown an int. in the streak. Bull RB Starks bounced
back from injury to rush for 171 ypg and 7 TDs in last 3 games. BG QB Sheehan
has cooled with the temperature in last 3 games, and Falcons make more
mistakes than title-minded Bulls. HC Gill’s Bulls have covered 7 straight on the
road; BG is 3-13 vs. spread last 16 at home.
(07-B. Green 31-BUF. 17...Bg.23-17 Bu.30/159 Bg.39/140 Bg.21/30/0/273 Bu.20/33/0/215 Bg.0 Bu.0)
(07-Bgu P 31-17 06-BGU -23 48-40 (OT) 05-Bgu -24 27-7...SR: Bowling Green 4-1)



VANDERBILT 27 - Tennessee 10—Now that Vandy is finally bowleligible
for 1st time since ‘82, must buck lame-duck coached UT, which never
found a QB or offensive identity TY (16 ppg, 3.4 ypc, just 7 TDP). Contrarily,
Vandy’s fast, versatile QB Nickson (118 YR, 3 TDP) had superb performance
vs. Kentucky, with help from gifted two-way performer CB D.J. Moore, who
caught two TD passes at Lexington. Note, ‘Dores aggressive defense leads
SEC in sacks (26); Vols dead last (15).
(07-TENN. 25-Vandy 24...T.22-17 V.41/131 T.28/105 T.29/43/0/245 V.14/26/0/139 T.1 V.0)
(07-TENN. -12 25-24 06-Tenn. -8 39-10 05-Vandy +11' 28-24...SR: Tennessee 69-27-5)




Mississippi 28 - LSU 23—Though LSU staged its biggest all-time
comeback in 40-31 victory vs. Troy, compelled go against Tiger squad that’s just
1-14 as SEC Baton Rouge chalk since ‘04 (0-6 overall as home favorite TY!). QB
edge goes to Ole Miss’ Snead (3rd in pass efficiency in SEC; only 1 int. last 3 games)
over mistake-prone LSU triggerman Lee (15 ints.), who’s tossed an incredible 7
ints. for TDs. And bowl-eligible, competitive Rebels (5 straight covers as away
dog) have much more in “tank” following breezy 59-0 debacle vs. UL-Monroe.
Ole Miss HC Nutt 9-1 last 10 as a road dog! TV—CBS
(07-Lsu 41-MISS. 24...M.25-21 L.40/228 M.28/201 M.17/39/3/265 L.17/25/0/168 L.0 M.1)
(07-Lsu -19' 41-24 06-LSU -27' 23-20 (OT) 05-Lsu -16' 40-7...SR: LSU 55-37-4)




★ NORTHWESTERN 28 - Illinois 19—Northwestern defense has played
surprisingly well 3 of last 4 games, and return to action of QB Bacher was a boost
to the Wildcats in upset at Michigan. Illinois has managed just 3.9 ypc & 2 rush TDs
in last 4 games, while QB Juice Williams has thrown 8 picks vs. just 6 TD passes
in that run. Illini season has unraveled with 1-3 SU & spread stretch run.
(07-ILL. 41-N’western 22...I.32-21 I.65/321 N.18/69 N.29/49/2/310 I.15/23/1/220 I.1 N.0)
(07-ILL. -14 41-22 06-NWU +2' 27-16 05-Nwu -15 38-21...SR: Illinois 52-44-5)






THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
*GEORGIA TECH 23 - Miami-Florida 16—Happenin’ Hurricanes have won 5
straight, as former Kansas d.c. Bill Young’s swarming stop unit begrudged foes
just 7 points & 139 total yards during third quarter of those games. Miami’s
offense (only 315 ypg) mostly doing just enough to get by, however. Big plays
more likely to come from Georgia Tech’s tough-to-prepare-for option attack &
soph RB Dwyer (1056 YR on 6.6 ypc). Jackets’ DL is top-notch, and crafty HC
Paul Johnson will have some surprises in store for RS frosh Cane QB Marve (10
ints., only 7 TDP). TV—ESPN
(07-Ga. Tech 17-MIAMI 14...G.22-12 G.50/264 M.38/167 G.11/29/1/114 M.8/18/0/56 G.0 M.0)
(07-Tech +2' 17-14 06-TECH -4' 30-23 05-Tech +18 14-10...SR: Georgia Tech 9-4)



FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21


*Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 25—Both teams played competitively in losses
last week, but they also each have just 1 SU win in last two months. Miami-O.
has QB edge with either Clay Belton (out injured last week) or Daniel
Raudabaugh, who’s coming off one of his best games (254 YP, 0 ints. vs. Ball
State). Rockets 0-4 SU at home this season and have rushed for just 92 ypg in last
7 TY. (DNP...SR: Miami-Ohio 27-20-1)



*SAN JOSE STATE 24 - Fresno State 17—Though earlier WAC contender
SJS hasn’t been the same since 33-16 home loss vs. Boise State on Oct. 24,
still prefer to buck banged-up (top RBs hurt), poor-tackling FSU (allowing 5.8
ypc), which has dropped 9 straight vs. spread, and is 9-27-1 last 37 on board.
Spartans capable QB Reed & WRs equipped to burn soft-covering Bulldog
2ndary (meager 6 ints. last 21 games!). Additionally, Tomey’s troops eager to
atone for previous home effort vs. La Tech (1st shutout in 40 yrs.!), and host has
covered 5 of last 6 in series. TV—ESPN2
(07-FRES. ST. 30-Sjs 0...F.22-18 F.43/251 S.30/140 S.22/44/1/254 F.16/26/0/132 F.1 S.0)
(07-FSU -13 30-0 06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7...SR: Fresno State 36-33-3)



SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22


TEMPLE 35 - Eastern Michigan 17—Temple is arguably most snake-bitten
squad in nation (2 OT losses & 3 others by combined 10 pts.). But with Owls
productive QB DiMichele (622 YP & 6 TDP last two games) in a groove since
returning from injury, Temple figures to win handily vs. defensively-porous EMU
(36 ppg, 5.8 ypc), which is bankroll-busting 6-15 vs. spread last 21. Owls a
hootin’ 8-3-2 vs. spread at the Linc since ‘06. (DNP...SR: Temple 3-0)



RUTGERS 36 - Army 10—Return to wishbone-type attack of yesteryear (as
well as a plucky veteran defense) making rested Army (6-1 vs. spread last 7) a
tough nut to crack in 2008. But prefer not to buck surging Scarlet Knights (4
straight victories, 6 covers in a row), as sizzling sr. QB Teel (12 TDP last 3
games!) figures to burn Black Knights’ secondary early & often.
(07-Rutgers 41-ARMY 6...R.25-6 R.72/404 A.20/97 A.7/24/1/55 R.3/12/1/42 R.1 A.4)
(07-Rutgers -19' 41-6...SR: Army 18-16)



*CINCINNATI 28 - Pittsburgh 20—First place in Big East at stake. Cincy’s
Brian Kelly (29-10-2 vs. spread last 41 on line!) is regarded as one of nation’s
top young mentors, and Bearcats own superior passing attack. Substantial
edge to Pitt ground game & stellar soph RB McCoy (1043 YR & 16 TDs). Seniorladen
Cincy “D” hasn’t beaten Pitt and vets will be primed for revenge. TV—ESPN2
(07-PITT 24-Cincy 17...P.26-18 P.46/260 C.28/121 C.21/32/1/237 P.18/29/1/167 P.0 C.2)
(07-PITT +10 24-17 06-Pitt -7' 33-15 05-PITT -13 38-20...SR: Pittsburgh 7-0)


WAKE FOREST 20 - Boston College 14—BC seized inside track to Atlantic
Division’s berth in ACC title game with last week’s win at Florida State. Wellcoached
Wake far from out of contention, however. Both defenses are very
stout vs. rush, and each opportunistic team has 29 takeaways (tied for 2nd in
nation). Ball security might prove key, and Deacon QB Skinner (only 1 int. last
6 games) more careful with rock than Eagle counterpart Crane. TV—ABC
(07-BOS. COL. 38-W. For. 28...24-24 B.27/54 W.24/2 B.32/52/2/408 W.45/60/4/366 B.1 W.0)
(07-BC -6 38-28 06-WFU +4 21-14 05-BC -14 35-30...SR: Boston College 7-6-2)



PURDUE 37 - Indiana 19—Most of Purdue’s few highlights this season have
come at home, and the host has covered 8 of last 10 in “Old Oaken Bucket”
series. Boiler 5th-year QB Painter flashed prime form in completing 24 of 30
passes at Iowa, and hurtin’ Hoosier “D” ranks 105th. Purdue primed for special
effort in HC Tiller’s finale. TV—ESPN2
(07-IND. 27-Purdue 24...P.25-24 I.41/219 P.32/78 P.28/45/1/281 I.23/39/1/216 I.1 P.1)
(07-IND. +2 27-24 06-PURDUE -12 28-19 05-Purdue -12 41-14...SR: Purdue 68-36-6)



OHIO STATE 35 - Michigan 10—This is the losingest Michigan team in
history, but rest assured Wolverines will muster their best effort in attempt to
eliminate Ohio State from Big Ten title chance. However, Beanie Wells should
repeatedly give the Buckeyes ball control, allowing QB produgy Pryor chances
to run and pass for big gains. TV—ABC
(07-Ohio St. 14-MICH. 3...O.16-8 O.59/229 M.24/15 M.12/37/0/76 O.7/13/1/50 O.0 M.0)
(07-Osu -4 14-3 06-OSU -6' 42-39 05-Osu -3 25-21...SR: Michigan 57-41-6)


*VIRGINIA TECH 32 - Duke 10—Don’t relish laying big points with tepid Tech,
as stodgy Hokie offense mustering just 289 ypg. Depth-shy Duke defense has
appeared drained lately, however, and Blue Devil QB Lewis now banged up.
CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Va. Tech 43-DUKE 14...V.21-13 V.38/99 D.36/72 V.21/30/1/346 D.14/28/1/122 V.1 D.2)
(07-Tech -13' 43-14 06-TECH -35 36-0 05-Tech -20' 45-0...SR: Virginia Tech 8-7)


*MARYLAND 19 - Florida State 13—Terps, who are undefeated at College
Park TY, need victory to set up possible Atlantic Division-deciding showdown at
BC next week. And, as long as scattershot jr. QB Turner (only 1 int. last 6
games) continues to at least avoid giveaways, Maryland (nearly 400 YR in last
2 games) should be able to slug its way past Seminole side that can’t seem to
avoid off-field distractions. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-FLA. ST. 24-Mary. 16...18-18 F.38/154 M.37/92 M.17/35/1/243 F.16/26/0/204 F.1 M.0)
(07-FSU -7' 24-16 06-MARY. +3' 27-24 05-FSU -17 35-27...SR: Florida State 16-2)



North Carolina State 28 - NORTH CAROLINA 27—In the ultra-balanced
ACC, there’s very little separating teams near the top from those at the bottom.
In fact, sub-.500 Wolfpack (covered 7 of last 8) is one of league’s hottest
squads vs. spread. So, eager to grab points with State, as resourceful RS frosh
QB R. Wilson (12 TDP, no ints. in his last 6 games!) fully capable of leading
upset over revenge-minded (but still-maturing) rival UNC.
(07-N. CAR. ST. 31-N. Car. 27...S.24-13 S.43/167 U.20/12 U.23/43/2/291 S.26/42/2/229 S.0 U.0)
(07-NCS -3' 31-27 06-UNC +3' 23-9 05-Unc +11 31-24...SR: North Carolina 63-28-6)


KANSAS STATE 30 - Iowa State 26—Last game for KSU’s Ron Prince. Both
teams happy to see 2008 season come to an end, with ISU having lost nine
straight, while Wildcats have given up 207 points in their last four games. But,
with K-State not displaying much discipline or leadership, can’t lay any points
vs. youthful, but well-drilled Cyclones.
(07-IOWA ST. 31-Kan. St. 20...K.22-14 I.40/120 K.29/78 K.28/45/2/347 I.17/26/1/228 I.0 K.1)
(07-ISU +14' 31-20 06-KSU -4' 31-10 05-ISU -7' 45-17...SR: Iowa State 49-38-4)



Arkansas 24 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 17—With offensively-pedestrian MSU
(15 ppg) out of bowl contention following 3rd straight SEC loss, favor rested,
motivated Arkansas (can still finish 6-6) on 9-game series win streak. Hogs own
decided offensive edge with trio of QB C. Dick (2389 YP, 11 TDs), fast RB M.
Smith (113 ypg rushing, 5.2 ypc) & sure-handed WR D.J. Williams (48 grabs).
Croom’s crew a stark 4-11 vs. spread last 15 in Starkville.
(07-ARK. 45-Miss. St. 31...M.27-20 A.45/206 M.31/80 M.29/51/4/421 A.15/18/0/223 A.0 M.1)
(07-ARK. -11' 45-31 06-Ark. -14' 28-14 05-ARK. -13' 44-10 at LR...SR: Arkansas 12-5-1)



Akron 28 - OHIO 21—Akron RB Dennis Kennedy has been on fire in 2nd half
of season, rushing for 189 ypg and scoring 10 TDs in last 4 games. Zips QB
Jaquemain has balanced the offense by throwing for 243 ypg & 7 TDs (only 1
int.) in last 3 games. Akron still has shot at 7-win season and bowl
consideration.
(07-AKRON 48-Ohio 37...18-18 A.35/177 O.33/120 A.17/28/1/242 O.17/37/0/239 A.1 O.0)
(07-AKRON +3 48-37 06-OHIO -5 17-7 05-AKRON -3 27-3...SR: Akron 12-11-1)


Colorado State 24 - WYOMING 20—More angles than would meet the eye in
this “Border War,” with CSU a win away from bowl eligibility (really!) and Joe
Glenn perhaps coaching his last game for Wyo. Do we dare recommend Ram
side that’s yet to cover (0-5 vs. line) away from Ft. Collins TY? CSU more likely
to fire scoring shots, with QB Farris more capable of causing damage than
counterpart Stutzriem, but not comfy laying any significant points with poortravelin’
Rams.
(07-COLO. ST. 36-Wyo. 28...C.22-15 C.52/152 W.27/99 C.16/22/1/245 W.21/34/0/229 C.1 W.2)
(07-CSU -3' 36-28 06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31...SR: Colorado State 54-40-5)


RICE 42 - Marshall 28—Sure, being a substantial favorite is an unfamiliar
pointspread role for long-suffering Owls. But that doesn’t mean rested Rice &
record-setting sr. QB Clement (87 career TDP) won’t easily blow away poortraveling
Herd, who’ve managed just 6 covers in last 28 migrating from
Huntington.
(07-MARSHALL 34-Rice 21...R.24-22 M.46/254 R.27/130 R.30/49/1/298 M.15/33/0/227 M.0 R.0)
(07-MARSHALL -9 34-21...SR: Marshall 1-0)


NOTRE DAME 34 - Syracuse 10—Charlie Weis not out of the woods with
angry Domers just because ND survived Navy scare last week. And Weis
knows what would be coming from the “Subway Alums” if Irish can’t take care
of business vs. Syracuse. Fortunately for Weis, there’s not much “juice” left in
woeful Orange, with Greg Robinson’s imminent dismissal the worst-kept secret
since Madonna’s breakup with Guy Ritchie. Sieve-like Syracuse “D” provides
lots of opportunities for Jimmy Clausen to exploit. TV—NBC
(05-NOTRE DAME -33' 34-10...SR: N. Dame 3-2)



WASHINGTON STATE 21 - Washington 20—We’re not even sure James
Carville could spin a case for either of these “rotten” Apple Cup combatants, but
we’ll give it a try. Non-effort at home vs. the hated Rick Neuheisel & UCLA
suggests winless U-Dub has completely spit the bit for the soon-to-depart Ty
Willingham. And though Wazzu might be down to true frosh Levenseller at QB,
Cougs at least displaying a little spunk in recent weeks with back-to-back
covers. Besides, only one of these two (Wazzu, albeit vs. lower-level Portland
State) has tasted the heady nectar of victory in ‘08!
(07-Wash. St. 42-WASH. 35...U.22-20 U.50/225 S.26/110 S.27/40/0/399 U.13/37/2/239 S.0 U.1)
(07-Wsu +6' 42-35 06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22...SR: Washington 64-30-6)



TULSA 63 - Tulane 27—Potent Tulsa (nation-leading 584 ypg) headed back
home and looking to vent some frustration after 2 straight losses soured its 8-0
start. Enter punchless Tulane side that’s been decimated by attrition on both sides
of ball. Ouch!
(07-Tulsa 49-TULANE 25...Ts.27-21 Ts.49/281 Tn.38/114 Ts.18/27/1/319 Tn.23/39/1/287 Ts.2 Tn.0)
(07-Tulsa -6' 49-25 06-TULSA -17 38-3 05-Tulsa -15 38-14 at Monroe...SR: Tulsa 3-1)


*OKLAHOMA 37 - Texas Tech 27—Offensive statistics for both teams and
QBs are “silly” (Sam Bradford 38 TDs, 6 ints.; Graham Harrell 36 & 5). OU’s nohuddle
offense has yielded only 9 sacks; TT’s spread, 5. Bob Stoops is 59-2 SU
in Norman since arriving in 1999. Sooners seeking revenge for LY’s Lubbock
game, during which Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray were both injured. OU
strikes for more big plays, but Harrell’s decision-making TY has been nearly
impeccable. TT (2-4 as road dog L3+Ys) improved on defense TY, but Sooners
own the ground game that Texas did not in its narrow loss in Lubbock. TV—ABC
(07-TEX. TECH 34-Okla. 27...T.25-17 O.34/106 T.17/53 T.47/72/2/420 O.23/45/1/302 T.1 O.1)
(07-TECH +8 34-27 06-OKLA. -8' 34-24 05-TECH -7' 23-21...SR: Oklahoma 11-4)



PENN STATE 30 - Michigan State 21—Michigan State still has a chance to
grab a piece of Big Ten crown and is very capable of giving powerful Penn State
a game. Spartan QB Hoyer has thrown for 548 yds. & 5 TDs in 2 games against
the Nittany Lions, and RB Ringer is 3rd in the country in rushing. After throwing
for 12 scores in first 5 games, Nittany Lion attack has downshifted, managing just
5 TD passes in last 6. Paterno wins Big Ten, but not in a walkover. TV—ABC
(07-MICH. ST. 35-Penn St. 31...M.21-20 P.40/167 M.39/145 M.17/22/2/280 P.16/37/0/188 M.1 P.0)
(07-MSU +2' 35-31 06-PSU -17' 17-13 05-Psu -8 31-22...SR: EVEN 12-12-1)



VIRGINIA 20 - Clemson 19—Both teams need one more win to be bowl
eligible. No big surprise if up-and-down Virginia, which dropped its last 2 games
after capturing 4 straight, able to ride stalwart sr. RB Peerman & extra week of
prep to small victory at Charlottesville. Clemson speedy jr. RB/return man
Spiller has scored 12 TDs in his career that covered at least 50 yards. But
Virginia high-percentage play as home dog.
(DNP...SR: Clemson 35-8-1)


TCU 33 - Air Force 10—With 16 days to stew over blown BCS at-large
opportunity at Utah, expect TCU to take out some of its frustrations vs. AFA.
Falc frosh QB Jefferson yet to face a “D” remotely reminiscent of d.c. Dick
Bumpas’ voracious 4-2-5 Horned Frog stop unit that tops nation in rush “D” and
has allowed only Oklahoma to score more than 14 against it. With soph WR
Young emerging as legit homerun threat for QB Dalton, TCU capable of
extending margin.
(07-A. FORCE 20-Tcu 17 (OT)...T.20-15 A.42/146 T.32/89 T.29/45/2/320 A.17/28/1/193 A.0 T.1)
(07-AFA +8 20-17 (OT) 06-TCU -17 38-14 05-Tcu +1 48-10...SR: TCU 4-2-1)


Stanford 24 - CALIFORNIA 22—Acknowledge Cal’s prowess at Strawberry
Canyon TY, as Bears 5-0 SU and vs. line as host. But this is the Big Game,
where anything can happen (just ask Bear announcer Joe Starkey...”the band is on
the FIELD!”), and it‘s not much of a stretch to envision bowl-hungry Stanford
making things interesting as long as Cardinal can establish infantry with slamming
RB Gerhart, especially with Cal QB Riley’s confidence a bit shaky after subpar
outing at Corvallis. TV—ABC
(07-STAN. 20-Cal. 13...S.20-17 S.39/120 C.24/108 C.22/47/2/252 S.21/33/1/196 S.1 C.1)
(07-STAN. +13' 20-13 06-CAL. -29' 26-17 05-Cal. -5 27-3...SR: Stanford 55-44-11)



Louisiana Tech 35 - NEW MEXICO STATE 21—With these two programs
heading in opposite directions, must buck spiraling NMS (5 straight losses
since stunning Nevada upset), whose embroiled HC Mumme about to be
“mummified” by administration. 6-4 La Tech envisioning 1st bowl since 2002.
Fundamentally, Bulldogs dynamic RB tandem of D. Porter & D. Jackson gashes
sieve-like Aggie front 7 allowing a whopping 5.7 ypc. Speaking of sieves, Aggie
OL has allowed 10 sacks last two weeks.
(07-LA. TECH 22-Nms 21...L.20-19 L.26/98 N.36/65 N.29/40/0/319 L.27/47/0/269 L.0 N.0)
(07-TECH -7' 22-21 06-NMS -12' 50-23 05-TECH -10' 34-14...SR: New Mexico St. 4-3)



Boise State 34 - NEVADA 23—Nevada won’t be intimidated by Boise as it
was in years past, not after taking Broncos to multiple OTs in ‘07 and playing
Texas Tech competitively earlier this season in Reno. And Bronco “D” still
probably having nightmares about long-legged Wolf Pack QB Kaepernick
running wild in LY’s shootout. But Boise stop unit has the quicks to somewhat
diffuse Chris Ault’s Pistol, and deadeye Bronco QB K. Moore can exploit
bottom-ranked Nevada pass “D” yielding 318 ypg.
(07-BOISE ST. 69-Nev. 67 (OT)...B.30-28 N.52/396 B.48/274 B.27/36/1/353 N.11/26/0/243 B.1 N.0)
(07-BSU -26 69-67 (OT) 06-Bsu -2' 38-7 05-BSU -20' 49-14...SR: Boise State 22-12)


*East Carolina 24 - UAB 23—Since declining ECU attack (12 ppg last 3
games) showing how much it misses NFL Rookie of the Year candidate Chris
Johnson (787 YR with Tennessee!), willing to “take” with UAB, shooting for its
3rd straight cover as a home dog. Blazers dual-threat QB Webb (130 YR, 154
YP vs. Tulane) should move chains. And with UAB attack displaying improved
ball security (only one TO vs. Green Wave; 23 in previous 8), this one decided late.
(07-E. CAR. 41-Uab 6...E.22-19 E.35/216 U.35/168 E.20/31/0/255 U.17/37/2/128 E.0 U.0)
(07-ECU -14' 41-6 06-UAB -6' 17-12 05-ECU +5 31-23...SR: UAB 4-3)



HOUSTON 49 - Utep 42—There’s no question that prolific Houston, which
has scored at least 41 points in 5 of its last 6 games, possesses devastating KO
power. But even with Coug QB Keenum striking lots of blows against vulnerable
UTEP defense, Miners’ undersung soph QB Vittatoe (25 TDP, only 3 ints. last
7 games) should counterpunch effectively enough to take host the distance.
(07-Hou. 34-UTEP 31...H.28-17 H.56/306 U.37/193 H.23/36/0/214 U.11/26/0/176 H.0 U.1)
(07-Houston -6 34-31 06-HOUSTON -6' 34-17 05-UTEP -12 44-41 (OT)...SR: UTEP 3-2)



*UTAH 26 - Byu 24—Every LDS member from Mitt Romney to Donny Osmond
will be paying attention to this one, with MWC title and possible BCS at-large
ramifications. BYU must deal with rugged Utah “D” that’s almost impossible to
run against (allows only 3 ypc), likely forcing Coug QB Hall to carry extra burden.
Brian Johnson and Utah “O” no mystery to Bronco Mendenhall, either, but Utes’
uncanny knack to survive nailbiters (5 wins by 7 or fewer TY) likely to come in
handy once more.
(07-BYU 17-Utah 10...B.21-14 B.33/155 U.39/115 B.17/41/1/269 U.17/29/2/129 B.1 U.0)
(07-BYU -4' 17-10 06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT)...SR: Utah 49-30-4)



*MINNESOTA 23 - Iowa 21—Respect Minnesota’s defensive effort at
Wisconsin in holding Badgers to a season-low 116 YR. Gopher QB Weber
showed resourcefulness in generating 202 YP & 3 TDs under hostile
circumstances without services of star WR Decker. Also respect Iowa defense
and standout RB Shonn Greene (11 straight 100-yard games), but Hawkeye QB
Stanzi has completed just 49% with 3 ints. & only 2 TD throws in last 3 games.
(07-IOWA 21-Minn. 16...M.18-17 I.40/139 M.33/125 M.24/41/1/190 I.14/25/1/157 I.0 M.0)
(07-IOWA -14' 21-16 06-MINN. -2' 34-24 05-IOWA -5 52-28...SR: Minnesota 59-40-2)


*Oregon State 29 - ARIZONA 27—Will Lyle Moevao become the first OSU
QB since Paul Brothers (in 1964) to lead Beavers to Rose Bowl? We’ll find out
soon enough. And, with Arizona proving more susceptible to self-destruct
tendencies in recent weeks than OSU, Beavs can keep Pasadena hopes alive.
Remember, OSU d.c. Mark Banker’s schemes greatly flustered Willie Tuitama
and Wildcat spread LY, and Beaver “O” effectively probing opposition with frosh
RB Quizz Rodgers’ darting thrusts.
(07-ORE. ST. 31-Ariz. 16...O.19-15 O.41/187 A.27/9 A.18/38/3/222 O.20/35/2/164 O.0 A.0)
(07-OSU -3 31-16 06-Osu -2' 17-10 05-Ariz. +9' 29-27...SR: Arizona 20-10-1)


West Virginia 27 - LOUISVILLE 23—WV trying to stay alive in Big East race;
Louisville (5-6) fighting for bowl eligibility. Mountaineers not the same TY
without coach “Rich Rod,” RBs Slaton & Schmitt, and big-play receiver Renaud.
D.c. Ron English (from Michigan) has stabilized the Cardinal defense, and RS
frosh Vic Anderson (973 YR) a revelation. But Louisville offense lacking
receivers. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-W. VA. 38-Lvl. 31...L.24-19 W.46/216 L.27/37 L.27/46/2/345 W.16/25/0/181 W.3 L.2)
(07-WVA -16' 38-31 06-LVL. -1' 44-34 05-WVA +7 46-44 (OT)...SR: West Virginia 7-2)



MEMPHIS 27 - Ucf 17—Despite losing three QBs TY (starter Arkelon Hall has
a chance to return), Memphis (which hosts Tulane next week) can still finish 7-
5 and garner a bowl berth. So, with RB Curtis Steele (1002 YR, 5.96 ypc)
leading the way, well-rested Tigers (DNP last week) and caretaker QB Brett
Toney (27 of 47, 3 TDs, 2 ints. last 3 games) likely to prevail.
(07-UCF 56-Memphis 20...U.28-19 U.59/313 M.36/130 U.17/21/0/288 M.16/33/0/173 U.3 M.0)
(07-UCF -7 56-20 06-Ucf -2' 26-24 05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: UCF 3-1)



*Unlv 41 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17—With SDSU continuing to plumb nearuncharted
depths of ineptitude (Aztecs couldn’t force even one punt from Utah
last week!), we’re not holding our breath for Chuck Long’s troops to finally gain
some traction. After all, surging UNLV in position to become bowl-eligible for
first time since 2000, as RS frosh QB Clausen proving able reliever for injured
starter Clayton. Popgun SDSU “O” unlikely to expose Rebels’ defensive
shortcomings.
(07-S. Diego St. 38-UNLV 30...U.24-18 U.49/275 S.26/122 U.18/29/1/207 S.17/23/1/196 S.0 U.0)
(07-Sds +3 38-30 06-SDS -9 21-7 05-UNLV +9' 13-10...SR: San Diego State 10-7



*HAWAII 47 - Idaho 17—Credit Idaho for at least taking some swings at
favored opposition in recent weeks (Vandals have covered last 3, and 4 of 5).
But after Boise battle, Idaho’s emotional tank could be empty vs. recent nemesis
UH, which has won and covered easily last 4 meetings. True, Warrior Red Gun
not as menacing as it was in June Jones’ days, but weak Vandal “D” (allowing
5.8 ypc) can be exploited by any of the QBs that Greg McMackin might wish to
utilize.
(07-Hawaii 48-IDAHO 20...H.31-19 H.25/91 I.34/90 H.32/51/5/394 I.19/41/5/213 H.1 I.0)
(07-Hawaii -24' 48-20 06-HAWAII -26' 68-10 05-Hawaii P 24-0...SR: Hawaii 7-1)



ADDED GAMES
Florida Atlantic 27 - ARKANSAS STATE 26—Hot FAU has won four straight,
with QB Rusty Smith (11 TDP, 3 ints. during streak) regaining his 2007 form (32
and 9 LY). But this is a tough field in Sun Belt play, and sagging ASU (now 4-
5 TY; lost last 3 SU; lost last 5 vs. spread) playing first home game since Oct. 11.
(07-FLA. ATL. 34-Ark. St. 31...F.19-14 A.35/125 F.39/105 F.22/42/2/268 A.19/33/1/131 F.1 A.0)
(07-FAU -6' 34-31 06-FAU +6 29-0 05-ASU -8' 3-0 (OT)...SR: EVEN 2-2)



*FLORIDA INTL. 23 - La.-Monroe 22—ULM happy to be back in the Sun
Belt after being shellacked 59-0 at Ole Miss. FIU (4-5 SU, 6-2 vs. the spread)
turning the corner after desperate 1-23 mark the L2Ys, and Golden Panthers
3-0 vs. the spread TY in Miami. But QB McCall hitting only 49.8%, with 8 TDs
and 8 interceptions. ULM (11-3 last 14 as Sun Belt dog) rarely out of games
on its own level.
(07-LA.-MON. 28-Fiu 14...L.21-15 L.40/160 F.38/125 L.17/24/0/270 F.15/36/1/198 L.1 F.0)
(07-ULM -13' 28-14 06-Ulm P 35-0 05-Fiu +10 31-29...SR: La.-Monroe 3-1)



MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. 45 - North Texas 16—Since MTS can avoid only
its 2nd non-losing campaign since ‘01, will lay lumber vs. defenseless, careless
NT (49 ppg, 27 giveaways), ripe for 3rd straight blowout loss in series. Blue
Raiders productive QB Craddock & his speedy WRs light board vs. Mean Green
2ndary that’s allowed nation-worst 32 TDP.
(07-Mts 48-N. TEXAS 28...21-21 M.42/132 N.22/87 N.25/45/4/296 M.22/38/0/203 M.0 N.1)
(07-Mts -13 48-28 06-Mts +4 35-0 05-Unt +5' 14-7...SR: North Texas 5-2)



*La.-Lafayette 34 - TROY 33—Recuperative powers of both will be tested
after disheartening recent defeats. But with New Orleans Bowl berth likely on
line, slight preference for experienced weaponry of ULL and sr. QB Desormeaux
& RB Fenroy. Besides, Troy’s Richmond transfer QB L. Brown might need to ice
arm after throwing 72 passes in last week’s bitter come-from-ahead loss at LSU!
(07-Troy 48-LA.-LAF. 31...T.26-22 L.46/345 T.43/271 T.30/43/1/297 L.21/41/2/159 T.2 L.0)
(07-Troy -9 48-31 06-TROY P 42-28 05-ULL -3' 31-28...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-3)



SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

*Connecticut 23 - SOUTH FLORIDA 21—Since the sputtering South Florida,
“whole” equaling much less than the sum of its talented parts lately, compelled
to back fundamentally-sound Huskies. Visiting UConn has top QB Lorenzen
back from injury, features the nation’s leading rusher in Donald Brown, and
possesses a lot more esprit de corps these days than troubled Bulls (lost 4 of last
5). TV—ESPN
(07-CON. 22-S. Fla. 15...C.20-18 S.44/253 C.46/159 C.13/26/1/194 S.16/30/2/189 C.0 S.0)
(07-CONN. +4 22-15 06-USF -6' 38-16 05-CONN. +7 15-10...SR: South Florida 3-2)


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25
*BALL ST. vs. W. Michigan—Check Sports Handicappers - Football Picks - Handicapping Picks - Basketball Betting on Tuesday!
(07-Ball St. 27-WMU 23...W.21-19 W.44/196 B.24/72 B.25/48/0/358 W.21/38/3/237 B.0 W.0)
(07-Bsu -1 27-23 06-Wmu -3 41-27 05-Bsu +11' 60-57 (OT)...SR: Western Michigan 19-15)


*NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. Navy—Check Sports Handicappers - Football Picks - Handicapping Picks - Basketball Betting on
Tuesday! CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-NAVY 35-Niu 24...Na.24-18 Na.60/359 Ni.44/149 Ni.21/35/1/206 Na.3/6/0/60 Na.0 Ni.0)
(07-NAVY -16' 35-24...SR: Navy 1-0
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 10 over Miami
DENVER by 21 over Oakland
OVER THE TOTAL in the Green Bay-New Orleans game




New England 23 - MIAMI 13—The Patriots were attacked by a
“wildcat” in the first meeting. Miami installed the popular college variation
during the week and then watched Ronnie Brown run for four TDs and pass for
another. N.E.’s in-game adjustments to slow the Wildcat proved fruitless. But
Bill Belichick has been burning the coaching phone since, so look for an
aggressive response this week. Moreover, QB Matt Cassel (67% last 5 games;
now handing more audibles) is vastly improved since the first meeting, which
was just his second start.
(08-Miami 38-N. ENG. 13...M.23-13 M.36/216 N.18/67 M.18/21/0/245 N.22/35/1/137 M.0 N.1)
(07-N. Eng. 49-MIAMI 28...M.25-23 M.30/179 N.22/84 N.22/28/1/359 M.24/37/1/203 N.0 M.1)
(07-N. ENG. 28-Miami 7...N.19-15 N.25/196 M.22/108 N.18/33/2/204 M.18/41/0/133 N.2 M.0)
(08-Miami +12' 38-13; 07-N. England -16 49-28, N. ENGLAND -22 28-7...SR: Miami 49-37



DENVER 34 - Oakland 13—Broncs romped in first meeting opening
week, with rookie WR Eddie Royal collecting 9 recs. for 146 yards, most of them
against high-priced Oakland CB DeAngelo Hall, since released. And Brandon
Marshall (63 recs.) missed that game due to suspension! The Raiders (no
offensive TDs last 13 Qs) sliding precipitously, with insiders reporting several
other players looking for an out. Denver (0-5 as a favorite since that Raider win)
owns huge QB edge, and Mike Shanahan never hesitates to punish Oakland
when he can.
(08-Denver 41-OAK. 14...D.24-15 O.31/150 D.34/142 D.16/25/0/299 O.17/26/0/167 D.0 O.1)
(07-DENVER 23-Oak. 20 (OT)...D.26-11 O.35/200 D.38/181 D.23/33/2/260 O.8/17/3/53 D.0 O.0)
(07-OAK. 34-Denver 20...O.20-14 O.41/175 D.29/86 D.16/32/2/206 O.18/28/0/197 O.1 D.2)
(08-Denver -3 41-14; 07-DENVER -9' 23-20 (OT), OAKLAND +3' 34-20...SR: Oakland 55-41-



MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24
OVER THE TOTAL *Green Bay 34 - NEW ORLEANS 31—G.B. has
become one of the NFL’s best road warriors, now 8-1 as a visiting dog under
Mike McCarthy. And the Saints are banged up and thin at CB, which is good
news for Packer wideouts, who led the NFL in yards after catch LY and are on
track to come close TY. G.B. has covered its last five games, during which
Ryan Grant—the key to their playoff drive LY—has rushed for 501 yards.
Packers have a team-record seven defensive TDs TY. Good offense; marginal
defense equals 19-9-1 “over” mark for last 29 for N.O. CABLE TV—ESPN
(06-New Orleans -2 34-27...SR: Green Bay 14-6)





*PITTSBURGH 23 - Cincinnati 19—Steelers easily won first meeting, pulling
away after leading only 10-7 at the half vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick. But little has come
easy this season for Pittsburgh, with its OL problems (35 sacks) and backfield
injuries. Sore-shouldered Ben Roethlisberger has only 10 TDs vs. 11 ints. TY.
And Bengals have covered 4 of their last 6 visits to the Steel City. Steelers 44-
16-1 “over” at Heinz. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-Pitt 38-CINCY 10...P.20-16 P.27/125 C.22/84 P.20/31/0/250 C.24/39/0/128 P.0 C.1)
(07-Pitt 24-CINCY 13...P.23-15 P.33/160 C.21/91 P.19/26/1/230 C.23/31/0/205 P.0 C.1)
(07-PITT 24-Cincy 10...P.20-15 P.35/101 C.23/74 P.21/32/2/184 C.17/44/0/175 P.2 C.1)
(08-Pitt -9 38-10; 07-Pitt -3' 24-13, PITT -7 24-10...SR: Pittsburgh 47-30)




SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23


CLEVELAND 27 - Houston 26—Sage Rosenfels (13 of 18, 1 int.) had only
one giveaway in last week’s 33-27 loss at Indy, so prefer to be “taking” with
hard-luck Houston. For Cleveland, Derek Anderson has absorbed most of the
blame (giving way to Brady Quinn), but Browns’ receivers have been “down” TY,
with Joe Jurevicius injured, Donte’ Stallworth & Kellen Winslow Jr. in & out of
the lineup, and Braylon Edwards plagued by drops. Always looking “over” with
Houston (“over” 9-1 TY; 22-8-1 last 31!). Texan defense only 6 ints. TY
(07-CLE. 27-Hou. 17...C.21-17 C.33/148 H.18/77 C.24/35/1/249 H.22/36/2/237 C.0 H.1)
(07-CLEVELAND -3' 27-17...SR: Cleveland 3-2)




KANSAS CITY 24 - Buffalo 22—Chiefs have been improving over the past
month, with QB Tyler Thigpen adjusting to NFL defenses and hitting 85 of 140
for 945 yards, with 8 TDs and 1 interception the last 4 games. With TE Tony
Gonzalez and WRs Dwayne Bowe & Mark Bradley, K.C. has been showing a
potent aerial game. Now, Larry Johnson, although not necessarily out of the
doghouse, is back in action (19 for 67 rushing last week vs. New Orleans). Prior
to their Monday nighter vs. Cleveland, long gainers had been evaporating from
the Bills’ offense.
(05-BUFFALO -2' 14-3...SR: Buffalo 21-17-1)




TENNESSEE 26 - NY Jets 17—This has some of the characteristics of the
type of banana peel that could finally slip up unbeaten Tennessee, especially
with Brett Favre now fully integrated into Jets’ offense. But a constant for the
Titans has been their rock-ribbed stop unit (13 ppg). And, with Thomas Jones
unlikely to find much running room vs. Albert Haynesworth and Co., Favre’s
preferred play-action not likely to be as effective as usual. Kerry Collins (3 TDP
last week) making just enough plays, and avoiding just enough mistakes, to
keep Titans’ unlikely run at perfection alive for another week.
(07-TENN. 10-Jets 6...T.17-14 T.36/127 N.24/68 N.26/32/2/228 T.12/23/1/146 T.1 N.0)
(07-TENNESSEE -8' 10-6...SR: Tennessee 22-15-1)




DALLAS 28 - San Francisco 23—Despite their 1-2 record, the 49ers are
clearly a different team under fiery coach Mike Singletary, a Texas native who
starred at Baylor. Shaun Hill (4 TDs, 2 ints. TY) is now 4-0 vs. the spread as a
starter LY & TY, and the S.F. defense is playing with new spirit. Cowboys also
reborn with Tony Romo, CB Terence Newman and others back to help rally
Dallas last week at Washington. But Romo (2 ints.) still not quite 100%. Niners’
secondary among the most experienced in the NFL.
(05-Dallas -6' 34-31...SR: San Francisco 16-14-1)



Tampa Bay 29 - DETROIT 16—Daunte Culpepper shaking the cobwebs
loose and providing Detroit with some legit NFL QBing, so Lions might yet taste
the heady nectar of victory this season. On the other hand, they’re still on
course to break the ‘76 Bucs’ heretofore untouchable 0-14 mark for singleseason
futility. Rest assured Jon Gruden is not about to let Tampa Bay become
the Lions’ first victim. Possible return of Cadillac Williams could bolster Buc
infantry, and Monte Kiffin’s tough-to-crack “Tampa Two” zone should limit
Culpepper’s downfield possibilities.
(07-DET. 23-T. Bay 16...T.27-17 D.24/147 T.29/124 T.37/45/0/298 D.16/20/0/131 D.0 T.2)
(07-DETROIT -2' 23-16...SR: Detroit 27-25)



Philadelphia 20 - BALTIMORE 16—Neither wants to put last week’s
respective efforts into a time capsule. But recuperative powers of Donovan
McNabb (3 ints. last week at Cincy) have been tested countless times in his 10-
year career; let’s see how Baltimore’s formerly-unflappable rookie Joe Flacco
deals with adversity after a couple of costly picks vs. Giants. Remember,
longtime Philly d.c. Jim Johnson has rattled many young QBs with his blitzes
and disguised coverages. If Eagles don’t get gashed by the Raven infantry,
McNabb more likely than Flacco to make a difference.
(04-PHILADELPHIA -7' 15-10...SR: Philadelphia 1-0-1)



Chicago 30 - ST. LOUIS 16—Bears have plenty of flaws, including a weak
cast of WRs that hamper their aerial game and allow teams to focus on rookie
RB Forte (777 YR). But even with Chicago in the negative role of road favorite,
we’re not eager to “stick a toe in the water” to test the temperature of the Rams,
who have trailed a by combined 75-3 at the half (!) of their last two games.
Bears still tied for first in the highly competitive NFC North.
(06-Chicago -6' 42-27...SR: Chicago 49-35-3)



Minnesota 23 - JACKSONVILLE 17—J’ville finally gaining a bit of traction
with its infantry past few weeks, but finding room to run vs. the suffocating
Minnesota rush “D” a different matter. And if Jags can’t establish a credible
ground assault, their lack of a deep passing threat (longest completion 35 yards
TY!) makes it extremely difficult for them to “matriculate the ball down the field.”
Meanwhile, Viking counterpart Gus Frerotte not likely to see much pressure from
limp Jag pass rush, which must constantly focus on Adrian Peterson (1100 YR).
(04-MINNESOTA -6 27-16...SR: Minnesota 2-1)



ATLANTA 20 - Carolina 16—Falcs suffered their first home loss week ago.
But rookie Matt Ryan still being praised for being such an “absorbent” QB—
advanced as a leader, a quick study in the film room, adding additional checkoffs
and adjustments as the season goes on. The Falcon defense will be
thoroughly challenged when trying to stem the Carolina ground game (264 YR
last week vs. timid Lions), but Panther QB Jake Delhomme (total of 172 YP last
two games) not exactly on fire.
(08-CAR. 24-Atl. 9...C.19-17 A.23/118 C.32/111 C.20/29/0/294 A.21/41/0/150 C.0 A.0)
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0)
(07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1)
(08-CAROLINA -7 24-9; 07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-11)



Washington 20 - SEATTLE 19—Jim Zorn returns to Seattle, where he
played QB for nine years, was an assistant coach for eight more, and was the
second player in the Seahawks’ Ring of Honor. However, after making crosscountry
trips four times this season (Buffalo, NYG, T.B., Miami) and losing them
all, the Seahawks are hardly in the mood to play nice host upon his return. Matt
Hasselbeck (3 ints. in his return last week) should be sharper for this one.
(07-SEA. 35-Wash. 14...W.21-14 S.21/77 W.29/75 W.29/50/2/244 S.20/32/2/227 S.0 W.0)
(07-SEATTLE -3' 35-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Washington 9-6)



NY Giants 31 - ARIZONA 24—Go-with vs. go-with. Arizona 4-0 SU and 3-1
vs. the spread at home TY. Too bad the Giants appear to have a “portable”
game they can take on the road and execute without slippage, going 16-3 vs.
the spread their last 19 away and 7-1 their last 8 as a road favorite! Key
question: Can the N.Y. pass rush get to Kurt Warner (20 TDs, 7 ints.) often
enough to keep the Cardinal WRs from dominating? Arizona believes in “theWhis,”
who is 3-0 as a home dog in his 1+Ys. But lean to superior rushing & pass rush of G-men.
(05-NY GIANTS -3 42-19...SR: NY Giants 78-41-2)



*Indianapolis 27 - SAN DIEGO 26—Indy lost two meetings vs. S.D. LY, with
Peyton Manning throwing six interceptions in the first (Adam Vinatieri missed a
FG at the end), and the harried Manning tossing two more in the AFC playoffs.
But that’s when the Chargers had intimidator Shawne Merriman to set up their
defense. S.D. not the same without him, collecting only six ints. so far TY,
compared with 30 LY! Not good, especially with Manning & Co. now hitting its
stride after early-season injuries. TV—NBC
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-S. Diego 28-INDY 24...I.29-20 S.30/99 I.18/44 I.33/48/2/402 S.17/23/1/312 S.0 I.1)
(07-SAN DIEGO +3' 23-21, San Diego +9 28-24 (Playoffs)...SR: San Diego 15-9)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast Powerplays 11-19 /25
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Rutgers has won the L4 in this series by 27 ppg and is 10-3 as a DD favorite. PP calls for RU to
win by 25 (line 17) with a 399-223 yd edge and the Knights can clinch bowl eligibility with a win.
4★ RUTGERS 31 ARMY 6



PU HC Tiller’s last game and he is 9-2 SU in the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. PP says PU
will win by 17 with a 460-265 yd edge and we agree.
4★ PURDUE 34 INDIANA 17



Tressel is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS vs rival Michigan. PP calls for OSU to win by 29 (line 19’) with a
385-165 yd edge and we agree.
4★ OHIO STATE 34 MICHIGAN 5


These schools are just 26 miles apart and the favorite is 5-11 ATS in this instate rivalry. PP calls
for NC to win by 16 (line 11’) with a 389-316 yd edge and we agree. NC is 2-0 SU & ATS off a SU
loss this year covering by 15 ppg.
4★ NORTH CAROLINA 31 NC STATE 15


We won a 4★ LPS on ND last week as they held back a 4Q Navy comeback attempt to win 27-21
(-4) in a gm in which they had a 24-11 FD edge. PP says ND will win by 23 with a 447-168 yd edge
and one more win probably gives ND a Gator Bowl trip.
4★ NOTRE DAME 33 SYRACUSE 10



PSU is 11-4 SU in this series and 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Happy Valley vs MSU with MSU’s last win
here in 1965. PP says PSU will win by 20 with a 435-230 yd edge and JoePa will earn his fi rst trip
to the Rose Bowl since 1994 with a big win here.
4★ PENN STATE 33 MICHIGAN STATE 13



TCU has held AF to over 2 ypc under their season avg the L2Y. They’ve allowed just 2.8 ypc in that
span and if you can shut down their fl exbone they don’t have many other options. Don’t forget that the
Horned Frogs are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home with an average score of 45-11. This is a Top Play.
4★ TCU 31 AIR FORCE 7


This is the fi nal gm in the Metrodome and PP is calling for Iowa to win by 8. The Hawkeyes have all’d
only 17 ppg in their three B10 road trips while Minny has lost 3 straight outright after their surprising 7-1
start. Added to the mix is the Gophers have failed to cover the L/2 at home by 23 ppg. This is a Top Play.
4★ IOWA 23 MINNESOTA 15



The attrition that the Aztecs have endured is becoming more and more obvious. This is the 10th
straight wk they’ve played and have allowed 46 ppg to conf foes. UNLV gets that huge 6th win here.
4★ UNLV 43 SAN DIEGO STATE 23


While the yards favor LSU they’ve had trouble scoring which is very obvious in the forecast. LSU
is 0-6 ATS at home, while Ole Miss is 3-0 as an AF incl an upset of Florida. This is an easy 4★.
4★ MISSISSIPPI 29 LSU 27


The yardage is close with Ark St only having a 369-353 yd edge. ASU has now dropped 5 straight
ATS while FAU’s QB Smith is fi nally healthy and the Owls have produced 46 & 40 pts the L/2 gms.
4★ FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+) 23 ULM 23



The Holy War has added meaning with a BCS bowl on the line. Remember that BYU’s ONE goal was
to be in the spot the Utes are in. PP says Utah’s balanced offense outgains BYU’s more pass dominated
one by a 459-383 ttl yd margin. We picked the Utes to win the MWC and they do it here in style.
4★ UTAH 37 BYU 24



East Carolina has struggled with injuries but have still won 3 of 4 SU incl 2 in OT. That gives them
great value to fi nish this season against a UAB squad they are forecasted to be outgained 376-326.
3★ EAST CAROLINA 30 UAB 20



You know what they say about paybacks. Houston got mauled by Tulsa 59-6 in ‘07 and returned
the favor 70-30 LW. They now face a Miners squad that dominated SMU LW with a fi nal yardage
total of 544-201. UTEP’s new 3-3-5 defense was installed for spread pass offense and they have
improved 4 straight weeks going from giving up 77 to 49 to 24 and 10 pts last week.
3★ UTEP (+) 30 HOUSTON 43


The Bears have a lot going for them. They are hungry after B2B conf road losses to the top two P10
tms, are ready for revenge after LY’s season ending loss and have PP calling for a 397-293 yd edge.
2★ CALIFORNIA 32 STANFORD 21

KSU is 11-3 SU (1-3 ATS) vs ISU winning by an average of 29 ppg and the home team is 8-3
ATS in this series. KSU HC Prince is coaching his fi nal game. PP calls for KSU to win by 12 (line
10) with a 482-398 yd edge.
1★ KANSAS ST 41 IOWA STATE 29
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS


(NE #11 vs MIA #14 MIA #8 vs NE #12) MIA has won 4 in a row but have done it with lots of trickery &
defense. They are tied with NE for 2nd in the AFC East & have a tiebreaker over NE based on their 38-13
win as a 12.5 pt AD TY. NE went to OT vs the Jets LW after recovering from a 24-6 defi cit in the 1H. PP
calls for a statistically even game here but with MIA being 4-21 ATS as a HF, NE having 3 extra days &
being 15-2 ATS after a div loss with a quality special teams edge the road dog is the play.
4★ PATRIOTS (+) 22 DOLPHINS 19



(WAS #10 vs SEA #28 SEA #31 vs WAS #4) Jim Zorn returns to SEA where he was the QB Coach & WAS
gets to take on a depleted SEA team that KO’d them out of the playoffs LY. WAS is off a key div loss on SNF
to DAL & are now tied for 2nd in the NFC East with them. Hasselbeck was very rusty LW (170 yds 59% 1-3)
after missing 5 games & handed the NFC West crown to ARZ. PP gives WAS a 360-228 yd edge & a 7 pt win
here but with Portis (knee sprain) hurting & this being a long fl ight on a short week this isn’t a big play.
3★ REDSKINS 17 SEAHAWKS 10


(HOU #5 vs CLE #26 CLE #27 vs HOU #22) This is the 6th meeting in 7 years with the HT being 4-1 SU
& ATS. CLE is off LW’s MNF game vs BUF & it’s not known if they rebounded after blowing 13 & 14 pt
leads at home prior. HOU lost a shootout vs IND LW & are one of 3 teams w/o a road win TY allowing 28
or more in each road game. Both teams are loaded offensively & have defenses that don’t generate much
pass rush or are strong vs the pass. CLE will be opening the playbook rapidly for Quinn & while there is
no line due to MNF the total is attractive here especially with HOU being 13-2 O/U the L/15.
NO PLAY: BROWNS 31 TEXANS 24
3★ TEXANS/BROWNS: OVER


(NYJ #13 vs TEN #6 TEN #20 vs NYJ #15) The Jets have sole possession of the AFC East for the 1st
time since 2001. They do get an extra 3 days rest while TEN is off another tough game where they rallied
from 11 pts down to score 21 unanswered pts for the win. TEN held JAX to just 3 FD’s & 84 yds in the 2H
LW. PP projects a 370-283 yd edge for TEN & favorites that just earned their 10th win are 27-12-2 ATS
but PP has this fairly close to the line keeping it to a small play.
1★ TITANS 26 JETS 19
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin O’neill’s The Max 11/19 - 11/25
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->College Football



Systems & Strategies

College System from Marc Lawrence,

Fond Farewell: Play on any college dog of more than 4 points in its Last Home Game
of the season if they have 17 or more starters from last year's team and are playing withrevenge.
Pointspread Record since 1990: 35-11 (76%)
This week’s application: UAB



College System from Dave Fobare,

Rivalry Dogs: In their last home game, play any college team as a dog if they are not
off consecutive losses and today's opponent is an in-state rival.
Pointspread Record Since 1990: 61-36 (62.8%)
This week’s application: Northwestern





Thursday, November 20th, 2008

@Georgia Tech (-3½) over Miami
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Pretty big game in the ACC, which is either parityladen
or mediocre, depending on your point of view.
Maryland’s win over North Carolina was helpful for
both of these teams, as was Miami’s win over
Virginia Tech, which also helped the Yellow Jackets.
Miami wins out and they win the division. Georgia
Tech has scenarios that could put them in the title
game, and they all include a win here. So this is a
big, big game, and it is a game where the unique
style of Tech, with their hard to defend triple option
attack, gives them an edge.
Georgia Tech was a popular “play against” in their
game against North Carolina. UNC had the week off
to prep for the triple option and the final score of
28-7 suggested that the Heels were the right side.
But as I wrote in my writeup against UNC last week,
“In fact, the Yellow Jackets all but gift-wrapped the
game for the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech won rushing
326-186, total yardage 423-314, and first downs 20-
13, but lost turnovers 3-0, and that killed them.
North Carolina used a pair of 4th quarter fumbles
(one on a punt, one a running play) to turn 7-0 into
21-0 on TD drives of 30 and 32 yards and then
tacked one on after a failed onside kick for a 28-7
win that saw only a single North Carolina scoring
drove of more than 39 yards. Considering the
scheduling advantage that UNC enjoyed heading into the
game it really wasn’t a great performance by the Tar
Heels, but to the betting public 28-7 looks like a whipping.”
Early last week, Paul Johnson was apoplectic about Tech’s
non-performance in that contest. He watched film with a
couple of beat writers and even those non-football guys
were amazed at the errors on every play. With that film to
look at for 11 days, Johnson will have his players’ full
attention this week. And the Hurricanes are quite a draw
themselves. Winners of five straight, Miami doesn’t have a
lot of offense but has been getting by on big plays. Typical
of recent performances, they outlasted Virginia Tech
Thursday night, despite gaining only 267 yards of offense
on 4.1 yards per play. Georgia Tech’s D has a number of
future NFLers and should be able to limit the Hurricanes.
Thursday outing leaves Miami with less prep time than
Tech. And Miami’s athleticism does not necessarily prepare
them for the assignment football required to defend the
triple option. ACC teams will defend the option better
once they see it for a couple of years, but first time
around, like right here, there will be times that Josh Nesbitt
and company make the Hurricanes look foolish. ACC
venues usually don’t supply a tremendous home field
advantage, but this may be an instance where the Tech
crowd is pretty pumped. Tech has the edge on both sides
of the ball in our judgment. Georgia Tech by 10.








Saturday, November 22nd, 2008

@Ohio St. (-20½) over Michigan
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Always a bit hesitant to lay big points in late season
rivalry affairs, as the old adage “you can throw out
the records when these two meet” seems to hold at
least some merit. However, this is one where I
think the superior team is going to flex its muscles in
a big way. These late November contests are a true
indicator of the culture of a program, and I’m not
sure that Rich Rodriguez has established any kind of
culture to this point at Michigan.
We all knew there would be an adjustment period
for the Maize and Blue to Rodriguez’s new offense,
and we all expect big improvements next season.
What is alarming though is that the play has often
been uninspired on both sides of the ball this
season. The players, especially the upperclassmen,
seemingly have not bought into Rodriguez’s system
and his methods. Several commentators and our
very own Dave Fobare, a Michigan fan and expert,
have commented that the team often looks dead on
the sideline during games. Sure, this is the game
you would expect the Wolverines play inspired ball,
and I’m sure Rich Rod will play the rivalry angle and
tell the troops all about pride and how this game is
their national championship. However, at this point,
off of yet another disappointing home loss last week
against Northwestern, you have to wonder if the words are
ringing hollow. Rodriguez is not Michigan Football the way
Lloyd Carr, even when his team was not Top 10 quality,
was Michigan football. You don’t get the feel that his
players would run through a wall for him (yet), and that’s
the type of blind faith that UM would need to be
competitive here after the season they’ve had. Even if I
am overemphasizing this angle and the Wolverines do
somehow summon some confidence and emotion, what
improvements have we seen in the quality of their play on
either side of the ball that lend us to think they can hang in
there with the best opponent that they’ve faced this year?
This is a 3-8 club with 4 double-digit losses on the season.
Jim Tressel would love nothing better than to hang a big
number here for recruiting purposes and to prove that the
Buckeyes, despite a couple of losses to two of the nation’s
best teams, haven’t gone anywhere. If he is up in the
second half, he’ll want to show Rodriguez and the
Wolverines just how much ground they have to make up in
this rivalry. No use giving you any stats here, instead just
trust your eyes. The Buckeyes are much better than UM in
every phase of the game. Terrell Pryor is the monster that
recruiting experts told us he would be, and Beanie Wells is
back to where he was pre-injury. Before this season, OSU
was on a 12-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 17 or more,
and Tressel will look to restore that killer instinct with a
blowout here. OSU by 27.







Florida St (+1) over @Maryland
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
These two teams garnered a lot of respect from
bettors last week. Florida St was a popular choice
over Boston College for most of the week, but when
news broke that multiple player suspensions were
looming, the Seminoles, or Criminoles in this case,
lost some of their backers. There was a huge brawl
at a frat house during the week, and as a result of
the rumble, five players were suspended. And oddly
enough all of them were wide receivers. But their
suspensions really had little influence on the
outcome of the actual game as Florida St still threw
the ball for 212 yards. It was their lack of a running
game (73 yards) that really did them in. The Seminoles
played a terrible game all around, and as Bobby Bowden
simply said afterward, “We got whipped.” BC won yardage
357-285 with a huge 176-73 rushing edge, so Bowden’s
simple statement basically sums up how the game played
out. But another simple and obvious statement by
Bowden, “It was a lousy week,” allows us to give Florida St
a pass for the bad performance. We’ll just draw a line
through the results, and expect the Seminoles to bounce
back strong off the home loss.
Maryland was in a great situational spot last week, and
because of it, the Terps took some action. We’ve seen
Maryland throw in a few clunkers throughout this season.
But after those bad performances, the Terps have bounced
back strong. And in fact, after Maryland’s 17-15 win over
North Carolina, they are now a perfect 3-0 straight up and
against the spread off a loss. But that last minute win over
North Carolina really wasn’t all that impressive because
North Carolina is a team that has been winning inside-out
games all year. In fact, heading into the Maryland game,
the Tar Heels had only out-yarded 3 of their 9 opponents
and amazingly, they won all six of those other games in
which they lost at the line of scrimmage. And before
Maryland’s 19-play, 73-yard, nine-minute game-winning
drive, the Terps were being out-yarded 275-263 by North
Carolina.
With Da’Rel Scott in the backfield, Maryland has a very
good running game. But Scott will face a stiff test here
against a formidable Florida St rush defense. The
Seminoles allow a sliver over 100 yards per game on just
3.3 yards per rush. After BC running back Montel Harris
rumbled for 121 yards, it marked just the fourth time this
season in which Florida St allowed more than 82 yards
rushing in a game. Harris was running with a chip on his
shoulder, “I wanted to show Florida State and their fans
how I could play,” because the Florida native was not
offered a scholarship by Florida St, the school he yearned
to play for. The Seminoles have not allowed a back-toback
100-yard rusher all season, and when Maryland has
been held to less than 100 yards on the ground, they are
0-2 losing by a combined score of 54-13. Florida St’s
ground game was stymied by a strong BC rush defense,
but the Seminoles should carve up Maryland’s 145 yards
per game, 4 yards per rush defensive line. Off a loss,
Florida St is 2-0 straight-up and against the spread this
year winning those games by 18 and 14 points. With
Bowden 42-24 against the spread off a loss in his coaching
career, look for the Seminoles to bag a win in College Park.
Florida St by 7.





@Virginia (+2½) over Clemson
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Don’t be overly impressed with Clemson’s win over
Duke. There’s no player in the ACC more important
to his team than Duke QB Thaddeus Young. When
Young went out in the first quarter with an ankle
injury, that was essentially the ballgame. Zack
Asack is the backup and he played like he used to as
the starter, “leading” the Blue Devils to four
consecutive three-and-outs, overthrowing and/or
throwing behind open receivers, taking sacks, etc.,
etc. Clifford Harris, the Dookies’ leading rusher,
broke his arm on his fourth carry. Those absences
put enormous pressure on the Duke defense and
like so many teams that lose their offensive leader,
the D couldn’t handle the short rests and additional
workload. Virginia has a big edge here with a week
to prepare. Al Groh has been around the block a
time or two and game planning is not necessarily a
strength of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and his
staff. Swinney has done a good job representing
the school and maintaining some enthusiasm, but
he’s a wide receivers coach and a recruiter, not a
tactician. Look for UVA to be physical against a
Clemson team that is more about finesse and speed.
Prior to their week off, Virginia’s 4-1 turnover
disadvantage spurred the Cavaliers to a 28-17 loss
to Wake Forest despite a 307-273-yardage
advantage. Workhorse back Peerman had a bland
game, not bouncing back from his fumble in
overtime against Miami (first of his career) and
fumbling again (second of his career) and will
benefit from the week off. Virginia needs a win to
become bowl eligible, and a win here off a bye week
is more attainable than next week’s game against
Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Last time Virginia had
a bye week, they broke a two-game losing streak
with a 31-0 stomping of Maryland as an underdog.
Can they come off of this bye week by breaking a
two-game losing streak against an inflated Clemson
team? Clemson has two wins over 1-AA competition
and only one of them counts, so they need to win
both here and against South Carolina to qualify.
Virginia has played mistake prone football the past
couple of weeks after a nice run, but expect them to
regroup here in a very winnable game. A rested
Virginia team getting off to a fast start could do a lot
of damage to an emotionally fragile, non-physical
Clemson team. Virginia by 4.




@Nevada (+6) over Boise State
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Jeremy Avery rushed for a career-high 156
yards and two touchdowns to help No. 9 Boise
State keep alive its hopes of returning to a BCS
bowl with a 45-10 win over Idaho on Saturday
and also clinched at least a share of its sixth
WAC title in the past seven seasons. To cash
the big BCS check, the 10-0 Broncos need to
sweep WAC rivals Nevada and Fresno State,
and probably need undefeated Utah, No. 7 in
the BCS standings, to lose.
Have to respect what Boise has done on the
road this season. Their 37-32 upset win as +10
over Oregon looks better every week, and the
Broncos are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road
this season. That crosses up the long time
Broncos ATS personality as a strong home team
(up to -28) and just mediocre away from their blue
turf. But that strong road mark plays into the best
tech material I have on this game, a 58-16 ATS
system that has covered by an average of more
than 10 points per game in the past and is 2-1 in
2008. The last game this system nabbed was Texas
Tech's epic 38-33 win over rival Texas.
I also have a 166-100 ATS statistical matchup
indicator that I've used in this space before which is
triggered by the Wolfpack's strong ground game.
This system is one of the rare few that has
performed better out of sample than overall, a sure
sign of something solid. Since Boise State is
undefeated, a whole passel of anti-"perfect road
team" systems pop up on the tech radar screen. A
similar theme is contained in a negative 63-114 ATS
contrary indicator that plays against certain road
teams with good statistical profiles like Boise's.
Boise had owned the Wolfpack until last season.
From 1999 thru 2006 the Broncos won all 7
meetings by an average score of about 50-7, with
no victory margin smaller than 31 points. But in
2007 Nevada's pistol offense finally grew to the
point it could trouble Boise. They won their 8th in a
row in this series 69-67 in four overtimes. The game
set a record for most points in an NCAA Division I-A
game since 1937, when official record keeping
began. Much as they have this season, Nevada
moved the ball well in both phases, but excelled on
the ground, gaining 396 yards on 52 carries. Both
teams should be able to move the ball today, but
history tends to favor the stronger ground game,
and that is the Wolfpack. The call here is for the
home team to spring a major upset. Nevada by 1.




@Arizona (-3) over Oregon St
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Well aware that this is a big game for Oregon St and
somewhat meaningless for Arizona. Oregon St, if
they can win out, will win the Pac 10 title and earn a
Rose Bowl invitation over USC because they beat the
Trojans earlier this season. But is this Oregon St
team really that good to be in this position anyway?
Don’t think so. The Beavers have three losses on
the year, but fortunately for them, two of them
came in out of conference games at Penn St and at
Utah. Two pretty good teams in their own right.
Aside from their big win over USC as 24-point home
underdogs, the Beavers conference wins have come
against the worst and most beat-up teams in the
Pac 10 like Washington St, Washington, Arizona St,
and UCLA. Those four teams have a combined
record of 9-32 on the year including a 6-23 mark
inside conference play. So to say that the Beavers
are a legit 7-3 team is very questionable, and the
thinking here is that they are a bit overrated.
Oregon St finally beat a winning team on Saturday
in their “better than the final score looks” 34-21 win
over California. The Beavers scored 21 points
because of special teams and defense. They had an
86-yard kick return for a touchdown, a 56-yard punt
return to the California 2-yard line which set-up a
one play, two yard touchdown drive, and a 25-yard
interception return for a touchdown. And their other
touchdown came on a 3-play drive after a 21-yard
California punt. As you can see, the 13-point win
over Cal was due to big plays, and not a dominating
performance. And if their offense doesn’t score
points in the desert on Saturday, the Beavers have
no shot against Arizona.
This is a big step-up in class for Oregon St as far as facing
a potent offensive attack goes. You have to go all the way
back to October 2nd when they faced Utah to see a decent
offensive team they’ve played. In that game, they trailed
20-9 with their only touchdown coming on an interception
return. So in reality, it should have been a 20-3 lead.
Forget their wins since that Utah loss because as we
mentioned above, they’ve come against very weak teams.
Arizona is not a weak team. The Wildcats have really
caught on to offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes’ system
this year. Dykes, former OC at Texas Tech, brought the
same system to Tucson last year and he guided the Cats to
the most passing yards in school history. But the reason
Arizona is much better in ‘08 than last year’s 5-7 squad is
the emergence of a productive running game. In 2007,
they ran for just 77 yards per game while averaging 308
yards through the air. There’s much more balance this
year with 172 yards on the ground and 240 yards through
the air per game. And that balance will be something
Oregon St hasn’t seen in 7 weeks time. Arizona is 4-1
straight-up (lost to USC 17-10) and a perfect 5-0 against
the spread at home. Make it 5-1 straight up and 6-0 to the
number when this game goes final. Arizona by 10.




Mississippi (+5) over @LSU
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
In the very early 90’s I had a huge couple of
years pounding non-conference teams playing
sandwich games against major conference
opponents. Sandwich games are when a team
is a non-conference home favorite in between
two conference games. It doesn’t really work
any more, as offenses are much more efficient
than they used to be, making it easier to cover
against inferior competition even if a team is
flat. LSU was in that very situation, and were
down 31-3 to Troy State late in the third
quarter, remarkably coming back for a 40-31
win in a largely empty Tiger Stadium. Is an
effort like that inspiring or tiring? I’m not sure
(I’m sure Dave Fobare has data on it), but I do
think that LSU is in vulnerable this week no
matter what the tech on that kind of situation
says.
Facing Troy State’s conference mate Louisiana-
Monroe, Ole’ Miss took care of business in a huge
way, reaching the 59-0 final score less than a
minute into the fourth quarter. Clearly this is a
team that was much more interested in playing well
and moving forward in a nothing game against a
poor opponent. And in their first year under a new
coach, you know they’re having better practices,
more attentive meetings, as well as players and
coaches who feel that they have a lot at stake. LSU
can’t possibly feel the same way. They’re going
from the national championship game to a far lesser
situation.
Ole’ Miss Coach Houston Nutt knows how to get an
apparently outmanned team cranked up for a big
game. In their first year under Nutt, Ole’ Miss is 3-
0 against the spread as a road dog, losing late at
Wake Forest 30-28 as a 7½-point dog. Winning
outright at Florida 31-30 as a 22-point dog, and
taking 12-point favorite Alabama to the wall in a 24-
20 loss. Nutt is 20-11 as a road dog in his career,
and nearly ruined LSU’s national championship
dreams when his Arkansas team lost that multiple
OT 50-48 game the day after Thanksgiving last year.
So the coach has revenge and the team has revenge
for Ole’ Miss’ 41-24 loss to LSU last year (UM won
yardage 466-396). The Rebels had the week off
before the Louisiana-Monroe game, and are fresher
than an LSU team that is playing for the seventh
week in a row. Look for an upset with a team on
the rise that is good in this role vs. a team playing
for lesser stakes than was expected a few short
weeks ago. Ole’ Miss by 3.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX


NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
Icy Homer: Play against any NFL home team that has lost at least three consecutive
games straight up facing a team that has lost at least two consecutive games straight up.
Pointspread Record Since 1986: 23-9 (71.9%)
This week’s application: Chicago Bears (play against St. Louis Rams)




NFL

Sunday, November 23rd, 2008

Patriots (+2) over @Dolphins
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Neither of these clubs has anything to be embarrassed
about following their losses last week despite
underperforming to the scoreboard. The Dolphins had to
fight to beat Oakland on a late field goal despite
dominating their game (382-186 total yards). It was the
second straight week that Miami slogged to a home win
over a bad team, the previous week they beat Seattle.
The Patriots lost at home in overtime after a monster
comeback. New England made a lot unforced errors early
in that game and though they came back to tie the
contest, they just couldn’t pull out the victory. New
England outgained the Jets 511-375 but much of that was
in comeback mode. Contributing to the Pats and ‘fins
underperforming on the scoreboard last week was the fact
that each gave up kickoffs for touchdowns.
Patriots have gone from a juggernaut hated by all to a
scrappy bunch that is fighting to overcome enormous
personnel losses. If you can get over your hatred for
Belichick you may even find the New Englanders to be
borderline likeable. Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Laurence
Maroney, are all guys who are out for the season but that
just scratches the surface when it comes to injuries
(Adalius Thomas is just the latest). Their loss on Thursday
night put them back to 6-4 on the season, but in each of
their past two losses, against the Colts and the Jets, you
can make a case that New England played well. The Pats
are 3-0 straight up and against the spread following those
losses and that takes them to 15-2 against the spread after
a loss since the start of the 2003 season. Using the
“Wildcat” single wing formation, the Dolphins ran all over
the Patriots 38-13 as Matt Cassel is much better now and
the defense will be much more prepared. There’s no doubt
that Belichick took this game as a personal challenge after
being caught unprepared in the September contest. The
Pats coaching staff has extra time to prepare for this one
and the proud veteran players have proven they can react
well to adversity. Youngsters like Jerrod Mayo and Matt
Cassel are performing a lot better today than they were
when Brady first went down.
Coach Tony Sparano and his team are doing a fantastic job
in Miami, but they have not played in a lot of big games
where a good opponent was primed for a top performance.
And make no mistake, this is an enormous game for New
England, and one that Belichick, his staff, and the proud
veterans on the defense have been pointing toward for a
couple of months. Not only due to revenge, but because
the Pats chances in the division would be greatly
compromised if they lose this game, as the Dolphins would
be one game ahead and would own the head-to-head
tiebreaker due to a sweep of the series. With the strong
record off a loss and having always adjusted well to an
opponent when meeting them for the second time in a
season, we’ll look for the Patriots to exact their revenge
over the Fish today. Patriots by 6.




Eagles (+1) over @Ravens
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
It’s hard to imagine that an NFL quarterback making
over 5 million dollars per season doesn’t know the
rules of an overtime game, especially one that has
led his team to four different NFC Championship
games and a Super Bowl. But that’s exactly the
case with Donovan McNabb. In his post-game press
conference, McNabb admitted that he did not know
if neither team scored in overtime then the game
ended as a tie. “I didn’t know that. I’ve never been
part of a tie. I never even knew it was in the
rulebook. I was looking forward to getting the
opportunity to get out there and try to drive to win
the game. But unfortunately with the rules, we
settled with a tie.” Is he for real? And to think that
we’re going to back McNabb and his Eagles here
may be even more questionable.
But it is what it is, right? McNabb should have much
more incentive now to go out and redeem himself
for the awful performance he put on in Cincinnati.
He was terrible against the Bengals; 28 of 58
(48.3%) while throwing three interceptions and
fumbling once. His three picks led directly to 10
Cincinnati points. While the Eagles offense
sputtered, their defense played tremendously. The
Eagles held the Bengals to only 282 yards of total
offense on just 3.4 yards per play including 56 yards
on the ground on a miniscule 1.9 yards per rush.
They had an impressive eight sacks in the game,
which brings their total for the year up to a league
leading 36. And that’s the key part of this game.
Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will confuse the
heck out of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco with his
multiple looks. Veteran QB’s can’t handle Johnson’s
pressure, so there’s no way a rookie with 10 games
under his belt will. Last week against another
formidable sack unit in the Giants, Flacco was able
to avoid the sacks (just one). But the pressure
forced him into throwing two costly interceptions.
We can expect more sacks and picks from Flacco
here.
Baltimore’s 4-game win and cover streak came to a
screeching halt in the Meadowlands. And of no surprise,
the Ravens offense wasn’t putting up big points because
they didn’t win the turnover battle. Instead, they lost it 2-
1, and only put up 10 points. Over their four-game run,
the Ravens scored 27 points or more in every game
because they had an 8-2-turnover edge. Turnovers are
not predictable, but considering the Eagles are off a 4
turnover game and the Ravens good fortune of getting
turnovers was snapped, we can make an educated guess
that this will not be another turnover aided game for
Baltimore. Rather, let’s go out on a limb and say the
Eagles win the turnover battle because of the pressure
their defense will put on quarterback Joe Flacco. As most
rookies do around this time of the season, Flacco may have
started to hit the wall last week. With Philadelphia off an
embarrassing game, and Baltimore’s gift-wrapped winning
streak over, look for the better team to get a comfortable
win. Eagles by 7.




Vikings (+2½) @Jaguars
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Simply going to back the better team here in
an underdog role in a game that they must
have to stay in the playoff race. Jacksonville,
for all intensive purposes, just lost their Super
Bowl this past weekend. They had a chance to
redeem themselves for a bad first half of the
season and start a second half run. They were
on their strong home field playing with revenge
against the NFL’s best team (for my money it’s
the Giants, but we are talking record-wise
here). They had the Titans on the ropes,
leading by 11 at the half, but were unable to
put their division rival away. I expect a bit of a
letdown here, as this team who’s been to the
postseason 2 out of the past 3 seasons, is all
bit eliminated this year.
The Jags simply aren’t the same team this
season, and much of their fall can be attributed
to an offensive line that has been without 3
starters and as many as 5 of the top 8 due to
injury. This has led to a 35 yards per game
decrease on offense, while their defense
surprisingly ranks 25th in the league at 5.9
yards per play, which continues a downward
trend which started last season. They simply
are a middle-of-the-pack team right now. The
schedule has been tough overall, but
remember in the 3 games preceding the
Tennessee showdown, the Jaguars lost to
Cleveland and Cincinnati before blowing out
the hapless Lions.
Minnesota is off of a 19-13 loss this past week
to Tampa in a game where the well-rested
Buccaneers simply took over in the second
half. They have played a rugged schedule, and
this is a make-or-break game for them to stay
in playoff contention. They are as strong as
any team in the league in the trenches, as
indicated by their +1.4 net rushing average.
They should dominate the Jags on both lines,
and that alone merits a look when taking
points. They will put the onus David Garrard
and the Jaguars inconsistent wide receivers.
The only area of concern here is their poor
coverage units against the Jaguars’ return
game led by Maurice Jones-Drew. If they can
shore up that weakness here, they are the
better team on both sides of the ball, and are
catching Jacksonville at the right time.
Minnesota by 4




Panthers (+1½) over @Falcons
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Both of these may be winning teams, but there
certainly are some warts. Panthers come in off a 31-
22 win over the hapless Lions as a 14-point favorite.
It’s easy to forgive the non-cover, as winless dogs
like Detroit are a very good betting proposition.
Running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo
Williams had a great day, combining for 250 yards
and three TDs. But QB Jake Delhomme has a second
lousy outing in a row against a Detroit secondary
that is easily the NFL's worst. While six of the first
seven starting QBs to face the Lions this season had
career best performances, Delhomme could manage
just 10 completions in 19 attempts and 98 yards.
Over the last two weeks Delhomme has completed
just 17 of 46 throws, and on the season has a 78
quarterback rating that is the worst in his 11 year
career.
The Falcons managed to lose at home 24-20 to a
Broncos team decimated by injury. Kevin doesn't
give me enough space or the time to list all the
wounded, but Denver has put sixteen players on the
NFL injury list in the last three weeks. Of particular
interest was the running game. In just the 10
previous days Denver lost running backs Andre Hall,
Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain and Selvin Young to
various ailments. They were so desperate they resigned
veteran Tatum Bell, who was cut by Lions in
September. Yet the Falcons still gave up 121 rushing
yards on just 26 carries to a collection of near
nobodies led by Peyton Hillis, P.J. Pope, Tatum Bell.
It gets worse. Spencer Larsen made history in his
first NFL start. Larsen, a rookie, became the first
Denver player to start on offense and defense in the
same game when he opened Sunday as the team's
middle linebacker and fullback.
Both teams are members of the NFC South. The NFC South
is arguably the league's best division. Its teams are a
cumulative twelve games above 0.500 while the NFC East
is thirteen games above break even. Winning teams in
competitive divisions are usually poor betting favorites,
according to a 180-99 ATS system I've been following since
2002. Since the move to the current divisional format there
are fewer plays, but the system is solid having rung up a
26-16 record over the last 6+ seasons including 4-3 this
season. I have one other tech system of note on this
game. It’s a 175-97 ATS statistical indicator that is based
on Carolina's rush defense. Over the past 6 years the NFL
has become a league dominated by the passing game, yet
this system has still managed to perform well, especially
later in the campaign.
From a QB perspective Carolina looks like an ugly play.
Jake Delhomme might be in a slump, but he might also be
heading downhill permanently. The Falcons' surprising
rookie Matt Ryan has to be a welcome face in the NFL
front offices after Atlanta's debacle with Micheal Vick. But
on overall season numbers I still make the Panthers a small
favorite, and the proven tech systems tilt to them as well.
Carolina by 6.




Colts @Chargers under 50½
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
We had the Colts over the total against the Texans
on Sunday, but that had a lot more do to with the
Texans than it did with the Colts. This matchup is
much more likely to see a lower score and this total
is quite high when you consider what kind of ball
these clubs are playing right now. Indy was
vulnerable against the run on Sunday, allowing 7.1
yards per rush. But it was the combination of Steve
Slaton’s insane speed and the fast turf of Indy that
created that 70-yard TD run against them, and the
Colts defense had allowed 3.3 yards rushing or less
in 4 of their previous 5 games. And Indy’s D clearly
was flat for this game. They expected to win, and
they did. But it was just one of those weeks against
a middling opponent that happens in the NFL. The
Colts have had three games go into the 50’s, their
two games against a Texans team that plays very
high scoring game, and the Monday night game
against Tennessee that reached a total of 52 thanks
to three TD’s in the last five minutes of the game.
Every other game has gone under 50 and with
Sunday’s wake up call and the respect the Colts
have for the Chargers D, there’s every reason to
expect that Indy will do a better job defensively
here. Offensively, the Colts succeeded Sunday
because of the competition. In fact they were pretty
sloppy offensively. They dropped six passes in the
first half and Manning’s timing with his receivers is
still off. This simply isn’t the high scoring Colts outfit
of yore.
And the Chargers aren’t playing a bunch of shootouts
either. They’ve played only one over since September, and
that game was the shootout in London against a Saints
team that gets into shootouts with everyone. San Diego’s
213 yards of offense on Sunday in Pittsburgh we can
blame on the weather (though the Steelers went for 410),
but it was the fourth time in the last seven games that
“high powered” San Diego has failed to reach 300 yards of
offense. Chargers passing game will struggle against a
Colts defense that allows a high percentage of completions
(69%, 31st in the league), but a low yards per pass attempt
(6.7, 13th in the league). Remarkably, the Colts D that is
31st in the league in completion percentage has allowed
only 2 TD passes all season, while corralling 10
interceptions. The Chargers pass defense has a similar
“keep it in front of you” philosophy, as they rank 30th in
completion percentage allowed and 16th in yards per pass
attempt. That indicates they’re play to keep the receivers
in front of them, which not only keeps the clock running,
but makes it difficult to score in the red zone.
This game will not have the 857 yards of offense that
these two combined for in the playoffs last year. And that
game saw only 52 points scored in the Chargers 28-24
playoff victory. This almost has the feel of a divisional
matchup, as this will be their third meeting in the past 53
weeks. And that familiarity should improve their chances
of slowing down each other, especially since both clubs are
down substantially when it comes to offensive production.
Ignore their reputations, look at what these teams are
doing this season, and look to the under.
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Sports Memo 11/19 - 11/25
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE SPORTS MEMO


ED CASH
IOWA STATE +10 AT KANSAS STATE
Recommendation: Iowa State
Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is questionable for this game after suffering a concussion last week against Nebraska. But even if he is 100% healthy, this line is much too high. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this season finale, as both have suffered through terrible seasons in the Big XII. They have been overwhelmed on defense for much of the season
and have each allowed almost 5,000 yards. Most pundits regard Freeman as an NFL prospect, but a 16-to-8 TD ratio in a conference littered with poor secondaries is nothing to write home about. Iowa State QB Austin Arnaud, who few could point out of a line-up, actually has posted better numbers over the last three weeks. Kansas State had just 247 total yards last week in its 56-28 loss to Nebraska while Iowa State had 444 yards in a losing effort to Missouri, 52-20. To me, that tells us that one team is playing hard and the other had given up on the season. This is KSU head coach Ron Prince’s final game but it doesn’t look as if this team will rally around him. Take the points in this battle of Big XII have-nots as Iowa State ends the year on a positive note.



BRENT CROW
NC STATE +11 AT NORTH CAROLINA
Recommendation: NC State
After watching the ACC this season, I think I would take 11 points with almost
any team and I will certainly grab double-digits with the improving NC State Wolfpack against their arch-rivals from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels basically fell out of the ACC Coastal Division race with their loss last week at Maryland. North Carolina now needs to win out and have Miami, Virginia and Virginia Tech lose at least once, which is certainly possible. They have to be disappointed after losing a tough, physical game to the Terps while NC State won its second straight game last week, beating Wake Forest, 21-17. NC State has gotten healthy in recent weeks and the steady improvement of freshman QB Russell Wilson has also keyed their turnaround. Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last six games. NC State has covered
its last five games, all as conference underdogs and they should have a chance to win this one straight up. State snapped a three-game losing streak to the Tar Heels last year, winning 31-27 in Raleigh as a 3-point favorite. There is no reason for the two-touchdown swing in the pointspread this week.



MARTY OTTO
BOSTON COLLEGE AT WAKE FOREST -2.5
Recommendation: Wake Forest
Boston College beat Florida State on the road last week while Wake was busy losing at NC State. The topsy-turvy ACC now sets up with BC controlling
its own destiny in the division, which is quite remarkable when you look at the team. They don’t have a very imposing rushing attack, QB Chris Crane has the second worst passer rating in the conference, their defense lost its heart and soul leader (Brian Toal), and they are ranked No. 11 in conference scoring defense. They also average almost three turnovers per game for the worst margin in the conference. To date, Wake Forest has largely disappointed with a 6-4 record but it should be in great position to post another home win this week. The Demon Deacons only loss in this venue came in a fluky game where Riley Skinner turned it over on seemingly every possession. Wake leads the ACC in conference scoring defense and turnover margin (+14) whereas NC State is one of only four ACC teams to have posted double-digit fumbles and interceptions. We’ll call for the season averages to play out in this one as the Demon Deacons record a nice home win with a reasonable point spread.



FAIRWAY JAY
AIR FORCE AT TCU -18
Recommendation: TCU
We cashed a solid winner last week with our Newsletter “Perception versus Reality”
article as BYU defeated Air Force 38-24. This week we’ll come right back with TCU as I expect the Frogs to fly over the Falcons. I’m impressed with Air Forces accomplishments this season but they have been extremely fortunate with favorable scheduling and opponents miscues. Air Force is in the top-10 in the nation in both turnovers gained and turnover margin. The triple option is a formidable attack for most opponents, but Air Force and its freshman quarterback
and running back are about to be grounded by the nation’s No. 1 defense. TCU allows just 220 ypg while possessing the nation’s No. 3 scoring defense (11 ppg) and No. 1 run defense (39 ypg). The Horned Frogs are also 5-0 at home this season and a perfect 4-0 ATS with no opponent scoring more than 14 points. Late season, home teams off a bye in conference action are a profitable
profile. Now add in a revenge motive for the TCU’s fluky overtime loss to Air Force last season and we now have yet another advantage to add to the fundamentals. Lay the points with TCU in what has the makings of a blowout.



DONNIE BLACK
NC STATE +11 AT NORTH CAROLINA
Recommendation: NC State
In the entire ACC there is not a single team that should ever be favored by double-digits. Twenty-eight of the 38 games played in the conference have been decided by 11 or fewer points. If we eliminate Duke from the equation there have been a total of six ACC games this entire season in which the final margin was by more than this pointspread. At the beginning of the season, dissension and attrition seemed to doom the Wolfpack to a terrible season. Head Coach Tom O’Brien was said to be in trouble and many felt the program was in decline. However with the emergence of freshman quarterback Russell Wilson, this is a different team altogether. During the last six games and over 175 passes, Wilson has not thrown an interception. This past weekend against Wake Forest he passed for two touchdowns and ran for another on 16-of-33 passing for 152 yards in the upset win. NC State, with a much weaker team a season ago, was able to beat their in-state rival, and with the program on the rise, we see no reason for anything other than a one score margin. Take the double digit points.




JARED KLEIN
IOWA AT MINNESOTA +5.5
Recommendation: Minnesota
Minnesota continues to be one of the hidden gems in the marketplace after another
ATS victory last weekend against Wisconsin. For the season, the Gophers are 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 7-3 ATS overall. We’ve spoken many times about Minnesota’s ability to force turnovers (+15 TO margin) and that should be in play against Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi, who has thrown seven interceptions in 11 games. We’ve also seen that Iowa is not the same team on the road going
1-3 SU this season away from Kinnick Stadium. Their lone road win came against the Big Ten’s worst team, Indiana. Minnesota WR Eric Decker is listed as questionable this weekend as he attempts to come back from a high ankle sprain. Decker is second in the Big Ten in receiving yards and touchdowns. Having him would be a big boost but Minnesota showed last week they are able to survive without him after a 32-point effort at Wisconsin. We’ve seen enough out of the Big Ten this season to acknowledge that outside of games involving Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana, every game is a virtual toss-up. This week, we’ll call for the home underdog to cash in with a favorable line.




TEDDY COVERS
WASHINGTON -7.5 AT WASHINGTON STATE
Recommendation: Washington
The closest Washington State has come to a win against an FBS opponent in 2008 is a 25-point loss to UCLA. Four of their last five opponents hung at least 58 points and they’ve been shut out in three of their last four games. This past Saturday, Paul Wolff’s squad gained a grand total of 130 total yards at Arizona State. Starting quarterback Kevin Lopina has a 0-to-10 touchdown-to-interception
ratio and leading rusher Dwight Tardy has gained 353 rushing yards for the season. Wazzou is way off the national radar and it’s probably a good thing because we’re talking about one of the worst seasons for any squad in the modern history of major college football. Yet despite all of its shortcomings, Washington State is once again being competitively priced this week against winless Washington. The last time we saw a team that was 0-10 SU as a road favorite of more than a touchdown was back in 2001 when Tom Holmoe’s 0-10 Cal Bears were nine-point chalk in their season finale at Rutgers. They won by double-digits. Washington has faced the toughest schedule in the nation and is finally in a situation to dominate an opponent. Lay the points with the Huskies.





ERIN RYNNING
PHILADELPHIA AT BALTIMORE -1
Recommendation: Baltimore
A short trek for the Eagles as they’ll travel to Baltimore and battle the Ravens this Sunday. Both teams come in off disappointing performances with the Ravens losing to the Giants and the Eagles recording a tie against the Bengals. The Ravens’ performance against New York was in my mind excusable when you consider their strenuous schedule of late. Amazingly, five of their last six games have been played on the road and I’ll call for their strong home turf to provide a boost this week. I feel the stigma associated
with the Ravens -- bad offense, good defense -- is quite misleading.
They’ve rarely lost a game in the box score and their ability to run the football in this game should provide a real advantage. Last week’s performance
against Cincinnati was certainly a red flag for Philadelphia backers. This is a team that people continually give a pass to because of the division they play in and their impressive offensive statistics but I’m not drinking the juice. Look for the Ravens to welcome the sight of M&T Bank Stadium and win this game on the strength of their running game and defense.




TIM TRUSHEL
NY GIANTS AT ARIZONA +3.5
Recommendation: Arizona
As defending Super Bowl Champs with a 9-1 record, the bandwagon for the Giants is pretty full. They have answered the call against all competition and are in fact the best team in the NFL. In the NFC, the next best team might just be Arizona. Along with Carolina and a healthy Dallas team, they are certainly in the conversation. Both the Giants and Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored averaging 29 ppg. Arizona does it with a tremendous passing attack, while the Giants are significantly more balanced and rely much more on the run. Defensively the Giants are the much better team. They rank second in the league against the pass, allowing just 175 ypg. Stopping Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin however could prove impossible. Last week, the tandem combined for 337 receiving yards and became the first-ever receiving
duo in NFL history to each have 150+ yards receiving in the same game. This week the Cardinals are installed as a home underdog for the fourth time in the last two seasons. The previous three times they beat three playoff teams in the likes of Dallas, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Having won seven straight games at home, we’ll call for another raucous home crowd and another outright win from the Cardinals




ROB VENO
WASHINGTON -3.5 AT SEATTLE
Recommendation: Washington
The importance of this game is night and day for both teams. Now off back-to-back home losses and in a six-team fight for the NFC’s pair of playoff wild card slots, Washington enters this contest with an extreme sense of urgency. Seattle meanwhile had its season implode for good last week when they lost to division mate Arizona. The Seahawks put everything they could into that game with a slim hopes of getting on a roll and slipping into the playoffs. But after the loss, reality has set in and a strong weekly effort for the remainder of the season is unlikely from this bunch. Washington’s fundamental ability to employ a power running game with solid success doesn’t bode well for the ‘Hawks who remain extremely vulnerable to such attacks. Their porous secondary
could also be gouged for big yardage. Redskins HC Jim Zorn noted after the loss to Dallas that there were multiple downfield pass play opportunities available for his team. His intent to correct some protection issues and go after those vertical completions this week versus Seattle could lead to quick scoring strikes. The Redskins’ rugged defense does the rest as they get the road cover.





RIVALRY GAMES

Once November football rolls around the college football games become bigger and more meaningful. Rivalry games are considered the lifeblood of college football and some of the most anticipated games of the year, as many of these rivalry
contests and results define a team’s season. This is a time when bitter enemies play for personal pride, past players,
fans, recruiting wars and state supremacy. The handicap of these rivalry and trophy games presents and interesting dynamic as statistical profiles and team records are often trumped by motivation with each team bringing a high level of intensity. The underdog may have a losing record and be playing this as their “bowl game” while also trying to ruin the enemy’s season. These contests attract special attention and coverage from the media, but thousands of fans and alumni across the nation look forward to at least one contest per season; a game versus their biggest rival.
The list below features many of the upcoming major rivalry games in college football. If you understand handicapping and betting strategies, you’re aware that not all contests have the same level of motivation, energy or effort. The underdogs
are a long-term profitable play, and it’s easy to provide
a big underdog example as proof that even the “ugly” underdogs can have their day. Late last season I personally cashed in on a pair of winners with the Pitt Panthers (+29) and the Under (59). Pittsburgh was a monumental underdog at West Virginia and prevailed 13-9 in the “Backyard Brawl” to knock the Mountaineers out of the national championship picture. Still, find a favorite that is focused, more skilled and ready to roll their rival and you’ll find yourself cashing tickets on the betting favorites as well. As always, evaluate the betting
line, market moves and price before backing your rival of choice.
I’ve outlined and added comments on many of the rivalries of interest and those contests that may have an impact on top of the conference standings or BSC Bowl and National Title game implications.



Date Away Team Home Team Rivalry Comments

11/21Fresno State San Jose State Battle of 152
Nearby neighbors and WAC rivals. The Bulldogs have won 13 of the last 14 meetings, including last season’s 30-0 shutout.


11/21 Michigan Ohio State None
No name or trophy needed for this contest. Michigan has lost four straight and is a 20-point underdog in Columbus.



11/22
Illinois Northwestern Sioux Tomahawk
Illinois may be on the outside looking in for a bowl invitation at 5-6. The Illini lead the all-time series 52-44-2.



11/22
Indiana Purdue Old Oaken Bucket
Purdue head coach Joe Tiller’s final game. The Boilermakers lead the all-time series 68-36-6 and have won 9 of the past 11 meetings.



11/22
Tennessee Vanderbilt I-40 Bowl
The Volunteers have won 24 of the last 25 meetings and needed a big rally to escape last year 25-24. Vanderbilt is favored for the first time since 1982.



11/22
Washington Washington St. Apple Cup
The 101st meeting for the Apple Cup. The Huskies lead the all time series 64-30-6. Both programs have fallen on hard times.




11/22
Stanford California The Big Game
The 102nd meeting. Stanford won last year’s game as a 13-point underdog, snapping the Golden Bears five-game winning streak over the Cardinal.




11/22
BYU Utah Holy War
BYU QB Max Hall convert a 49-yard pass completion on 4th and 18 to set up the game-winning touchdown in the final minute of last year’s 17-10 win over Utah.



11/22
Colorado State Wyoming Bronze Boot
The winner receives the Bronze Boot. Back-to-back struggling seasons for two programs trying to find their way back to respectability.





11/27
Texas A&M Texas Lone Start Showdown
Texas has dominated the series 73-36-6, but the Longhorns have lost the last two meetings as 7- and 14-point favorites.



11/28
Ole Miss Mississippi St. Egg Bowl
Ole Miss owns a 59-39-6 record in The Egg Bowl and the Rebels are going to a bowl for the first time in five years.


11/28
Ohio Miami (OH) Battle of the Bricks
The Battle of the Bricks has been won by the Ohio Bobcats the past two seasons, but Miami is 14-4 over their MAC rival since 1990.



11/28
Bowling Green Toledo Peace Pipe
Also known as the Battle Of I-75. Rust Belt bragging rights as these two teams have combined to average 66 ppg over the last eight years.


11/29
South Carolina Clemson Palmetto State
The last three contests have been decided by 4-points or less with Clemson winning last year’s showdown 23-21 on a last second field goal.




11/29
West Virginia
Pittsburgh Backyard Brawl
Pitt pulled the shocker in last year’s regular season finale, knocking off No. 2 West Virginia 13-9 as a 29-point underdog. Pitt leads the all-time series 60-37-3.



11/29
Auburn Alabama Iron Bowl
Alabama holds a 38-33-1 all-time edge, but Auburn has beaten Alabama six-straight times. The team with the rushing edge has won the last nine contests.



11/29
Georgia Tech Georgia None
A nasty nickname for this rivalry, “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate”. Georgia coach Mark Richt has never lost this rivalry game in seven tries.



11/29
Oklahoma Oklahoma State Bedlam Series
The series has been all Sooners recently, as Oklahoma has won the last five contests and covered the point spread in four of them; mostly as double digit favorite.




11/29
Missouri Kansas Indian War Drum
Played at a neutral site in Kansas City, the “Border War” is the longest uninterrupted rivalry west of the Mississippi River (played continuously since 1891).



11/29
Florida Florida State Governor’s Cup
The Gators have beaten the Seminoles four-straight times in the “Sunshine Showdown”.



11/29
Virginia Virginia Tech Commonwealth Cup
The Commonwealth Cup has been won by the Hokies each of the last four years.



11/29
North Carolina Duke Victory Bell
The Tar Heels have maintained possession of the Victory Bell 17 of the last 18 years.




11/29
Oregon Oregon State Civil War
The 112th meeting of the Civil War rivalry, which the Beavers won in overtime last year 38-31. Home team has won 10 of 11.



11/29
Houston Rice Bayou Bucket
Crosstown rivals have averaged 73 ppg the last three meetings in the battle for the Bayou Bucket.



12/6
USC UCLA Battle of LA
The Crosstown Rivalry has been all USC this decade; losing just one time in 2006 to cost the Trojans a National Title game trip.



12/6
Arizona State Arizona Territorial Cup
The Sun Devils have won 5 of the last 6, but ASU will be a 2-touchdown underdog in Tucson in the battle for the Territorial Cup.



12/6
Army Navy None
Navy leads the all-time series 53-49 with 7 ties, and Army’s current six-game losing streak to Navy is the longest in the historic rivalry..
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Sports Reporter 11/19 - 11/25

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->THE SPORTS REPORTER


BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA over TEXAS TECH by 20
OKLAHOMA, 50-30.



BEST BET
CLEMSON over *VIRGINIA by 16
CLEMSON, 30-14.



BEST BET
IOWA over *MINNESOTA by 17
IOWA, 37-20


BEST BET
WEST VIRGINIA over *LOUISVILLE by 20
WEST VIRGINIA, 34-14.



RECOMMENDED
*ARKANSAS STATE over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 14
ARKANSAS STATE, 34-20.


RECOMMENDED
*ARIZONA over OREGON STATE by 11
ARIZONA, 31-20.



RECOMMENDED
*OHIO STATE over MICHIGAN by 9
[Michigan, plus the points.] OHIO STATE, 29-20.


RECOMMENDED
*KANSAS STATE over IOWA STATE by 1
[Iowa State, plus the points.] KANSAS STATE, 29-28.


RECOMMENDED
*TULSA over TULANE by 36
TULSA, 48-12.





THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
*GEORGIA TECH over MIAMI-FL by 5
GEORGIA TECH, 21-16.



FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21
MIAMI-OH over *TOLEDO by 1
MIAMI-OH, 27-26.



BUFFALO over *BOWLING GREEN by 1
BUFFALO, 31-30.



*SAN JOSE STATE over FRESNO STATE by 2
SAN JOSE STATE, 23-21.



SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22
*TEMPLE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 8
TEMPLE, 25-17.



*RUTGERS over ARMY by 15
RUTGERS, 31-16.



ILLINOIS over *NORTHWESTERN by 1
ILLINOIS, 24-23.



*CINCINNATI over PITTSBURGH by 2
CINCINNATI, 25-23.



BOSTON COLLEGE over *WAKE FOREST by 1
BOSTON COLLEGE, 17-16.



*PURDUE over INDIANA by 8
PURDUE, 31-23.



*VIRGINIA TECH over DUKE by 14
VIRGINIA TECH, 24-10.


*MARYLAND over FLORIDA STATE by 4
MARYLAND, 27-23.



*NORTH CAROLINA over NC STATE by 11
NORTH CAROLINA, 24-13.



TENNESSEE over *VANDERBILT by 1
TENNESSEE, 14-13.


*MISSISSIPPI STATE over ARKANSAS by 1
MISSISSIPPI STATE, 21-20.



*OHIO over AKRON by 1
OHIO, 24-23.



COLORADO STATE over *WYOMING by 3
COLORADO STATE, 24-21.



*RICE over MARSHALL by 10
RICE, 38-30.



*NOTRE DAME over SYRACUSE by 21
NOTRE DAME, 38-17.



WASHINGTON over *WASHINGTON STATE by 7
WASHINGTON, 27-20.


*PENN STATE over MICHIGAN STATE by 12
PENN STATE, 25-13.


*TCU over AIR FORCE by 14
TCU, 26-12.



*CALIFORNIA over STANFORD by 10
CAL, 31-21.



LOUISIANA TECH over *NEW MEXICO STATE by 2
LOUISIANA TECH, 35-33.



BOISE STATE over *NEVADA by 4
BOISE STATE, 37-33.



EAST CAROLINA over *UAB by 11
EAST CAROLINA, 28-17.



*HOUSTON over UTEP by 10
HOUSTON, 42-32.



BYU over *UTAH by 1
BYU, 31-30


*MEMPHIS over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 5
MEMPHIS, 27-22.



UNLV over *SAN DIEGO STATE by 8
UNLV, 25-17.



*LSU over MISSISSIPPI by 4
LSU, 24-20.



*HAWAII over IDAHO by 20
HAWAII, 37-17.



*FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over LOUISIANA-MONROE by 5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 22-17.



*MIDDLE TENNESSEE over NORTH TEXAS by 17
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 38-21.



*TROY over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 7
TROY, 27-20.



SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

*SOUTH FLORIDA over CONNECTICUT by 4
SOUTH FLORIDA, 20-16.


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25
*BALL STATE over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 7
BALL STATE, 34-27.


NAVY over NORTHERN ILLINOIS* by 1
NAVY, 28-27.



THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

*TEXAS over TEXAS A&M by 27
TEXAS, 37-10.
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS REPORTER


BEST BET
CAROLINA over *ATLANTA by 11
CAROLINA 24-13.



BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over *SAN DIEGO by 10
INDIANAPOLIS 34-24.



BEST BET
WASHINGTON over *SEATTLE by 15
WASHINGTON, 31-16.




RECOMMENDED
*DETROIT over TAMPA BAY by 1
DETROIT, 17-16.



RECOMMENDED
MINNESOTA over *JACKSONVILLE by 8
MINNESOTA 21-13.







THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20
*PITTSBURGH over CINCINNATI by 9
PITTSBURGH, 26-17.




SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

*CLEVELAND over HOUSTON by 6
CLEVELAND 30-24.



BUFFALO over *KANSAS CITY by 7
BUFFALO, 20-13.



*TENNESSEE over NY JETS by 7
TENNESSEE, 23-16.



NEW ENGLAND over *MIAMI by 4
NEW ENGLAND 21-17.



*DALLAS over SAN FRANCISCO by 14
DALLAS 31-17.




*BALTIMORE over PHILADELPHIA by 4
BALTIMORE 14-10.



CHICAGO over *ST. LOUIS by 11
CHICAGO 24-13.



*DENVER over OAKLAND by 10
DENVER 20-10.



*NY GIANTS over ARIZONA by 6
NY GIANTS, 34-28.



MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24
*NEW ORLEANS over GREEN BAY by 3
NEW ORLEANS, 31-28.



THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

*TENNESSEE over DETROIT by 14
TENNESSEE, 31-17.


*DALLAS over SEATTLE by 17
DALLAS, 34-17.


*PHILADELPHIA over ARIZONA by 9
PHILADELPHIA, 26-17.
<!-- / message -->

 

[BuffaloSabre]

CPAW delivers. Thank you SO much.

 

[SaxonDog]

Power Sweep anyone!!

 

[DancesWSheep]

Power Sweep anyone!!

Post #6 has the link to download it.

 

[TMaN2000]

Playbook d/l:

http://www.ecapftp.com/08pb141414.pdf

Playbook Midweek d/l:

http://www.ecapftp.com/08mwten1010ten.pdf