Pointwise Red Sheet 9/17--9/21
SEPTEMBER 19, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 3
AUBURN 37 - West Virginia 17 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 4, and is now minus 6½. Did
you really expect anything else? The Tigers have served us well thus far, & despite the
Mounties in a rare dog role (only 2nd such setup in last 3+ regular seasons), we are not
about to jump from this moneymaker. Auburn has topped 300 RYs in both outings (691 to
date) behind Tate & McCalebb, & shouldn't be contained by the comparatively green
WestVirginia "D" line. Tigs proved their mettle LW, with total domination, after falling behind,
17-14, with just 4 minutes left in half, winning 49-24. Color this "revenge".
RATING: AUBURN 89
TEXAS 51 - Texas Tech 21 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Texas minus 17½, and is now minus 16½. Even
the most casual of fans well remembers the incredible windup to last year's war between
these 2, as the 'Horns came all the way back from 29-13 deficit in the 3rd, taking the lead in
the final 1½ minutes, only to lose it on a 28-yd Harrell-to-Crabtree pass in the final second.
'Horns rank 2nd in the land, & have had this one in their sights since that wrencher. Have
McCoy, along with 7 other "O" starters, & seem to always play their best as host of this
series. Spread seems high, especially off Tech's rout of Rice, but we lay it.
RATING: TEXAS 89
KANSAS 45 - Duke 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 19, and is now minus 21. Jays were the talk
of the land for most of the '07 season, covering their 1st 10 games, & winding up at 12-1 SU,
as well as 11-1 ATS. But LY, despite the return of 15 starters, including the irrepressible
Reesing at QB, the magic just wasn't there, as its defense, which eventually finished 90th in
the nation, couldn't complement its productive offense. But things are harking back to '07,
thus far, as they're extremely balance, & have thus far, stymied foe attacks. Imps can't run,
so unable to shorten it. Note that KU is stellar 11-1 ATS as a HF.
RATING: KANSAS 88
NOTRE DAME 31 - Michigan State 27 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NotreDame minus 11, and is still minus 11.
A week ago, we begged off the obvious choice of the puppy in the NoDame/Michigan series.
We have made plenty of hay over the years, with that simple trend, but decided not to step
out, due to the plethora of questions surrounding the Wolves. Well, once again there was
money to be made with the dog, in that stunning upset (final 0:11). This series is also kneedeep
in tradition, namely the barnburner. Last week, the Spartans were caught peeking to
this contest, in their upset to CentralMichigan. But will be ready.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88
California 38 - MINNESOTA 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at California minus 13½, and is now minus 14. A
year ago, the Bears opened with a pair of wins & covers, the 2nd being a 66-3 wipeout of
WashingtonSt. They then were installed as a 2-TD chalk at Maryland in a 12:00 noon (Eastern)
start. It all seemed too easy, & it was, as they were completely dominated by the Terps,
with the eventual 35-27 final hardly reflective of the game itself. Well, they are again off to an
impressive start, & again travel east for a noon start. You can bet that they've learned their
lesson. Minny has a pair of 4th quarter comeback wins. Not here.
RATING: CALIFORNIA 88
CHICAGO 23 - Pittsburgh 19- (4:15) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 2½, and is still minus 2½. These
2 squads in off completely opposite windups, with the champ Steelers taking Tennessee in
OT, and the Bears going down to the Packers in the final 1:11. Both teams have to overcome
crucial defensive injuries as Steelers will go it without Polamalu, & Chicago without
Urlacher. And defense is surely their game. Pitt could do nothing, overland, in opening
squeaker (1.6 ypr), so the burden pretty much falls on Ben's shoulders. Bears had 126-yd
edge over the Packers, but were killed by 4 Cutler INTs. Don't look for repeat.
RATING: CHICAGO 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BoiseSt, Bowling Green, OklaSt, BYU -- NFL: Redskins, Cards, Colts
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): FresnoSt (+12 to –7); Air Force (-14½ to -17½); Nevada
(Pick to -3); Auburn (-4 to -6½); SMU (-4½ to -7); Kentucky (-10½ to -13); Navy (+9 to +7); Utah (+6 to +4);
Washington (+23 to +21); Miami-Fla (-3 to -4½); Army (-6½ to -8); Michigan (-22½ to -24); EastCarolina (+8
to +6½); UCLA (-10 to -11½); Oklahoma (-14 to -15½); TexasA&M (-16 to -17½); UNLV (-5½ to -7); SanJoseSt
(+19 to +17½); Cincinnati (+2½ to +1); UAB (+8½ to +7); Lafayette (+27½ to +26) - NFL: Arizona (+4½ to
+3½)
- TIME CHANGES: None -
KEY INJURIES: Colorado QB Hawkins (concussion) probable; ColoSt RB
Mosure (concussion) ??: UConn QB Frazer (knee) out 2 wks; Illinois QB Williams (thigh)??; KentSt QB
Morgan (ankle) ??, & RB Jarvis (kidney) out for season; Memphis RB Steele (knee) out 2 or 3 weeks; Memphis
RB McCluster (flu) probable; NoTexas QB Dodge (shoulder) doubtful; NoDame WR Floyd (leg) prob;
OklaSt RB Hunter (ankle) doubtful; UCLA QB Prince (jaw) out 2 or 3 weeks; UNLV QB Clayton (knee) ??;
USC QB Barkley (shoulder) prob; Utah RB Asiata (shoulder) ?? - NFL: Arizona QB Warner (arm) prob;
Chicago LB Urlacher (wrist) out for season; Dallas QB Romo (ankle) prob; J'Ville RB Jones-Drew (forearm)
prob; KC QB Cassel (knee) ??; NewOrleans RB Thomas (knee) ??; Philadelphia QB McNabb (ribs) doubtful;
Pitt S Polamalu (knee) out 3 to 6 wks; SanDiego RB Tomlinson (ankle) ??....
SEPTEMBER 19, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 3
AUBURN 37 - West Virginia 17 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 4, and is now minus 6½. Did
you really expect anything else? The Tigers have served us well thus far, & despite the
Mounties in a rare dog role (only 2nd such setup in last 3+ regular seasons), we are not
about to jump from this moneymaker. Auburn has topped 300 RYs in both outings (691 to
date) behind Tate & McCalebb, & shouldn't be contained by the comparatively green
WestVirginia "D" line. Tigs proved their mettle LW, with total domination, after falling behind,
17-14, with just 4 minutes left in half, winning 49-24. Color this "revenge".
RATING: AUBURN 89
TEXAS 51 - Texas Tech 21 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Texas minus 17½, and is now minus 16½. Even
the most casual of fans well remembers the incredible windup to last year's war between
these 2, as the 'Horns came all the way back from 29-13 deficit in the 3rd, taking the lead in
the final 1½ minutes, only to lose it on a 28-yd Harrell-to-Crabtree pass in the final second.
'Horns rank 2nd in the land, & have had this one in their sights since that wrencher. Have
McCoy, along with 7 other "O" starters, & seem to always play their best as host of this
series. Spread seems high, especially off Tech's rout of Rice, but we lay it.
RATING: TEXAS 89
KANSAS 45 - Duke 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 19, and is now minus 21. Jays were the talk
of the land for most of the '07 season, covering their 1st 10 games, & winding up at 12-1 SU,
as well as 11-1 ATS. But LY, despite the return of 15 starters, including the irrepressible
Reesing at QB, the magic just wasn't there, as its defense, which eventually finished 90th in
the nation, couldn't complement its productive offense. But things are harking back to '07,
thus far, as they're extremely balance, & have thus far, stymied foe attacks. Imps can't run,
so unable to shorten it. Note that KU is stellar 11-1 ATS as a HF.
RATING: KANSAS 88
NOTRE DAME 31 - Michigan State 27 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NotreDame minus 11, and is still minus 11.
A week ago, we begged off the obvious choice of the puppy in the NoDame/Michigan series.
We have made plenty of hay over the years, with that simple trend, but decided not to step
out, due to the plethora of questions surrounding the Wolves. Well, once again there was
money to be made with the dog, in that stunning upset (final 0:11). This series is also kneedeep
in tradition, namely the barnburner. Last week, the Spartans were caught peeking to
this contest, in their upset to CentralMichigan. But will be ready.
RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 88
California 38 - MINNESOTA 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at California minus 13½, and is now minus 14. A
year ago, the Bears opened with a pair of wins & covers, the 2nd being a 66-3 wipeout of
WashingtonSt. They then were installed as a 2-TD chalk at Maryland in a 12:00 noon (Eastern)
start. It all seemed too easy, & it was, as they were completely dominated by the Terps,
with the eventual 35-27 final hardly reflective of the game itself. Well, they are again off to an
impressive start, & again travel east for a noon start. You can bet that they've learned their
lesson. Minny has a pair of 4th quarter comeback wins. Not here.
RATING: CALIFORNIA 88
CHICAGO 23 - Pittsburgh 19- (4:15) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 2½, and is still minus 2½. These
2 squads in off completely opposite windups, with the champ Steelers taking Tennessee in
OT, and the Bears going down to the Packers in the final 1:11. Both teams have to overcome
crucial defensive injuries as Steelers will go it without Polamalu, & Chicago without
Urlacher. And defense is surely their game. Pitt could do nothing, overland, in opening
squeaker (1.6 ypr), so the burden pretty much falls on Ben's shoulders. Bears had 126-yd
edge over the Packers, but were killed by 4 Cutler INTs. Don't look for repeat.
RATING: CHICAGO 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BoiseSt, Bowling Green, OklaSt, BYU -- NFL: Redskins, Cards, Colts
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): FresnoSt (+12 to –7); Air Force (-14½ to -17½); Nevada
(Pick to -3); Auburn (-4 to -6½); SMU (-4½ to -7); Kentucky (-10½ to -13); Navy (+9 to +7); Utah (+6 to +4);
Washington (+23 to +21); Miami-Fla (-3 to -4½); Army (-6½ to -8); Michigan (-22½ to -24); EastCarolina (+8
to +6½); UCLA (-10 to -11½); Oklahoma (-14 to -15½); TexasA&M (-16 to -17½); UNLV (-5½ to -7); SanJoseSt
(+19 to +17½); Cincinnati (+2½ to +1); UAB (+8½ to +7); Lafayette (+27½ to +26) - NFL: Arizona (+4½ to
+3½)
- TIME CHANGES: None -
KEY INJURIES: Colorado QB Hawkins (concussion) probable; ColoSt RB
Mosure (concussion) ??: UConn QB Frazer (knee) out 2 wks; Illinois QB Williams (thigh)??; KentSt QB
Morgan (ankle) ??, & RB Jarvis (kidney) out for season; Memphis RB Steele (knee) out 2 or 3 weeks; Memphis
RB McCluster (flu) probable; NoTexas QB Dodge (shoulder) doubtful; NoDame WR Floyd (leg) prob;
OklaSt RB Hunter (ankle) doubtful; UCLA QB Prince (jaw) out 2 or 3 weeks; UNLV QB Clayton (knee) ??;
USC QB Barkley (shoulder) prob; Utah RB Asiata (shoulder) ?? - NFL: Arizona QB Warner (arm) prob;
Chicago LB Urlacher (wrist) out for season; Dallas QB Romo (ankle) prob; J'Ville RB Jones-Drew (forearm)
prob; KC QB Cassel (knee) ??; NewOrleans RB Thomas (knee) ??; Philadelphia QB McNabb (ribs) doubtful;
Pitt S Polamalu (knee) out 3 to 6 wks; SanDiego RB Tomlinson (ankle) ??....
The gold Sheet
All Of Gold Sheet Publacations
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
All Of Gold Sheet Publacations
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
Nelly's Greensheet
NOW 2-0 ON 3* PHONE PICKS!
NFL 2/3 ALSO WINS, NEWSLETTER PICKS ARE 61-41 SO FAR
THE GREEN SHEET $8.00
Volume XX – Issue 3
September 14, 2009
We rank our Key Selections in order of preference, grading them on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being a top selection. This does not mean we recommend you wager 5 times more on a 5 rating
than on a 1 rating. Our Phone Service works that way, but not the newsletter. Lines listed are as of early in the week and could be considerably different by game time. For games that are not key selections, the farther our difference from the line, the stronger the opinion. Remember to stay conservative because it is a long season. Weekend Phone Selections are available every Friday, 3:00 pm Central. Call us toll-free at 1-800-33-NELLY. Our address is Nelly’s Sportsline / P.O. Box 6433 / Madison, WI 53716-0433, or contact us through Nelly's Sportsline .
Copyright © 2009. All rights reserved. Nelly’s Sportsline is a registered trademark.
LAST WEEKS NEWSLETTER:
Our key selections have not made a big run yet going 6-6 last week but
overall picks from newsletter have succeeded at a nearly 60% clip with a
61-41 record through our first two full issues and our preseason issue.
NELLY’S 2009 ANNUAL:
Don’t throw out the Annual! The ‘Pointspread Preview’ picks are 8-2
through the first two weeks including Houston’s big upset last Saturday.
NELLY’S PHONE SERVICE:
September has been a big month for our phone service in recent years and
we have had two PLUS weekends in two weeks this year. We won our 3*
top play in college for the second straight week and our opening NFL 2/3
package was also profitable. The only disappointment has been the
Computer Slam. We will be featuring another 3* top play in college football
this week and another guaranteed NFL 2/3 package for Sunday . Last
season our phone service was profitable in 16 of 22 football weeks and
now we have made that run 18 of the last 24 weeks finishing PLUS $!
GREEN LIGHT REPORT:
The Green Light Report went 2-1 for the second straight week on our rising
star selections. Check for the report as an additional page added on the
online version or through a phone update every Friday. If you need a
telephone PIN number please contact the office. On to this week’s slate…
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 OKLAHOMA (-15½) over Tulsa
RATING 4 AUBURN (-6½) over West Virginia
RATING 3 SYRACUSE (+4) over Northwestern
RATING 2 CALIFORNIA (-13½) over Minnesota
RATING 2 BUFFALO (+4) over Central Florida
RATING 1 MICHIGAN STATE (+11½) over Notre Dame
RATING 1 FLORIDA (-28½) over Tennessee
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2009
MIAMI, FL (-4½) Georgia Tech 6:45 PM
This will be the second straight primetime Thursday night game for Georgia Tech, now sitting
at 2-0. Both teams in this match-up have ACC wins already and this will be a critical Coastal
division match-up between teams that hope to challenge Virginia Tech for the title. Georgia
Tech rushed for 472 yards in a dominant win in Miami last season but Miami’s run defense
looked improved in the opening game, holding Florida State to 110 yards on 30 carries. The
Hurricanes have had much more time to prepare for this game with an off-week last weekend.
Miami has been a terrible home favorite in recent years going 5-14 ATS in the last 19
attempts. Last week Georgia Tech got off to a 24-0 lead but then needed two late field goals
to tie and then overtake Clemson. That poor finish should leave a motivated Yellow Jackets
team with plenty to work on. Miami QB Jacory Harris impressed last week as Miami passed
for 386 yards but the Hurricanes will be unable to match the rushing numbers that Tech is
likely to post. Georgia Tech has beat Miami each of the last four years and this looks like a
game where the underdog will have a big rushing edge, which is always a very favorable
cover situation in college football. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2009
Boise State (-7½) FRESNO STATE 8:00 PM
Without the blue turf, Boise State is not as tough but the Broncos have only lost ATS in one of
the past seven road contests as favorites. Fresno State has had very little success in this
series in the last decade including failing to cover in seven of the past eight meetings. Boise
State cruised to a dominant 48-0 win last week against Miami, Ohio and in two games the
Broncos have allowed a total of just 69 rushing yards. Boise State is well known for its
offensive prowess but the defense may carry the team this season after two dominant efforts.
Fresno State outplayed Wisconsin last week but had a couple of costly turnovers to surrender
the lead and then fail in overtime. The Bulldogs showed a lot of promise last week and QB
Ryan Colburn made many excellent throws but it will be a tough follow -up after narrowly
missing a big upset opportunity. Boise State won 61-10 at home against Fresno State last
season so there should be plenty of motivational material for the Bulldogs but the gap
between these two powers of the WAC may be growing. Although Boise State gets more
attention for dominant home numbers, the Broncos are 15-2 S/U in road games under Coach
Petersen including going 6-0 S/U and 5-1 ATS last season. BOISE STATE BY 17
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2009
ARMY (-8) Ball State 11:00 AM
After losing at home to a North Texas team that went 1-11 in 2008 in the opening game, Ball
State responded with a 16-23 loss to FCS New Hampshire last week. The Cardinals averaged
443 yards per game last season but last week posted 129 yards of offense and just nine first
downs. New Hampshire is a well regarded team in the FCS division, ranked #9 going into that
game but Ball State clearly has some issues and Nate Davis is sorely missed at the QB
position. Ball State has defeated Navy the last two seasons and will have another crack at a
triple-option service academy this week facing an Army team that has split the first two
games. Army is expected to be an improved team this season with even a shot at a bowl bid
but last week’s home loss was a big set-back to those ideas. Army soundly out-gained Duke
last week but four turnovers proved costly. The Army defense held Duke to just 236 yards, a
week after holding Eastern Michigan to just 223 yards. Army has not exactly faced offensive
juggernauts, but the results have been encouraging and facing a Ball State team that does not
have much rhythm may be another favorable situation. Army is a dangerous team to back as
the records in recent years are very poor but new coach Ellerson has this team on track for
some margin of success in the near future. ARMY BY 6
PURDUE (-12½) Northern Illinois 11:00 AM
The Boilermakers have been incredibly productive on offense with 986 yards and 88 points in
two games. Purdue had a nice showing last week at Oregon, but ultimately fell short and this
could be a tricky game with Notre Dame visiting town next week. Last season Purdue won by
just seven in a tough game against Central Michigan from the MAC, played in a very similar
spot on the schedule. Northern Illinois is 13-5 as double-digit underdogs since 2000 and the
Huskies gave a commendable opening week effort against Wisconsin, a team generally
ranked ahead of Purdue in the Big Ten pecking order. NIU did not post great statistics in that
game but last week the Huskies gained some confidence with a 41-7 win ov er FCS Western
Illinois. The Huskies rushed for 244 yards last week and NIU covered in both games against
BCS conference opponents last season, actually holding great shots at major upsets in a pair
of 4-point losses. This looks like a tough situation for Purdue coming off a heartbreaking loss
and facing one of its biggest games of the season coming up next. PURDUE BY 7
MICHIGAN (-22½) Eastern Michigan 11:00 AM
Against the Big Ten’s Northwestern last week, Eastern Michigan made a miraculous
comeback attempt that fell just short. In the gam e the Eagles were out-gained by only 23
yards in that game and it was encouraging effort after a poor opening week performance.
Eastern coach Ron English is a former Michigan assistant so this will be a big game for him
but it will also be a second straight road game for the Eagles. Michigan came up with a late
score to steal a victory in one of the huge games last week. The win over Notre Dame has
Michigan back in the top 25 and the Wolverines have been impressive on offense after great
struggles last season. Michigan QB Tate Forcier is just a freshman but he showed a lot of
poise last week and the offensive line is providing quality protection. This could be tough
letdown spot for Michigan, particularly with the homecoming Big Ten opener on deck and this
will be an inflated spread for a team that is still very young and inexperienced. Eastern
Michigan will get a lot of points in this game and the Eagles may be able to hang around for a
while and force a few Michigan mistak es. MICHIGAN BY 21
PITTSBURGH (-7) Navy 5:00 PM
Pittsburgh won convincingly last week but the defense allowed 500 yards as Buffalo made
several big plays through the air. In 2007 Navy beat the Panthers but last season Pitt won 42-
21 in Annapolis. The Panthers actually out-rushed Navy last season which can be a difficult
thing to do and the Pittsburgh offense had 209 yards on the ground last week. There was no
letdown for navy after the near-miss against Ohio State as the Midshipmen dominated a
Louisiana Tech team that went to a bowl game last season. Navy is a very dangerous
underdog with great ATS numbers in recent years while Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in the last eight
games as home favorites. Navy has easily covered in both games this season and trying to go
against a team that is sure to rush for big numbers as an underdog makes little sense.
Pittsburgh has been impressive so far this season but the Panthers have not been an
impressive ATS home team under Coach Wannstedt. PITTSBURGH BY 6
Northwestern (-4) SYRACUSE 6:00 PM
Syracuse is 0-2 while Northwestern is 2-0 but the competition has been vastly different.
Syracuse has held its own against two Big Ten teams, losing in overtime against Minnesota
and playing respectably close against Penn State. The Orange has shown significant
improvement on defense as two strong offensive teams have only posted modest numbers.
Syracuse has made some mistakes on offense but this should be a favorable match-up.
Northwestern won against one of the worst FCS teams in week one and last week squeaked
out a very narrow win in a game that was statistically quite even last week against Eastern
Michigan at home. Last season Northwestern beat Syracuse 30-10 at home but this will be the
first road game for a rather inexperienced offense. Expect to get solid value on Syracuse at
home following two losses but the Orange has looked like a legitimately improved team
against two quality opponents. SYRACUSE BY 7
CLEMSON (-7) Boston College 11:00 AM
There were some mistakes but Clemson QB Kyle Parker led a furious comeback attempt last
week before Clemson eventually lost a tight game against Georgia Tech. This will be a critical
game for the Tigers looking to avoid a 0-2 hole in ACC in a season with expectations to
contend for a division title. Boston College is quietly 2-0 with two dominant wins but the
competition takes a big leap forward this week. The Eagles and a young offense will have a
much tougher time this week after cruising with little resistance the past two weeks. Clemson
beat Boston College last season in Chestnut Hill but BC had won the previous five meetings.
Boston College has been an impressive underdog, covering in 13 of the last 17 games as
underdogs. Not much can be taken from Boston College’s two wins but they did completely
shutdown the Kent running game last week. BC could have a ground edge in this match-up
and the Eagles are a continually undervalued team that has had great success in the
underdog role while Clemson may be burnt out after a tough loss. BOSTON COLLEGE BY 3
PENN STATE (-29½) Temple 11:00 AM
The Nittany Lions have won comfortably in both games this season but both games resulted
in ATS losses. Another lopsided win should be in order as Penn State continues a very easy
non-conference slate but trusting the Lions to overcome a steep number is risky. The Big Ten
opener, a big revenge match-up against Iowa, is next up for Penn State so they would not be
blamed for overlooking Temple. Temple also was off last week and the Owls have had an
extra week to prep for this game coming off a disappointing loss to FCS Villanova in the
opening week. Temple returns 15 starters from last year and the Owls have been a winning
ATS team each of the past two seasons. Temple had five turnovers in the opener to contribute
to the loss and the Owls were a competitive team last season though they lost 45-3 against
Penn State. The Nittany Lions have won and covered each of the last three seasons against
Temple but that will create a very high spread in this match-up and Temple might be able stay
within the margin for another Lions ATS miss. PENN STATE BY 28
NORTH CAROLINA (-6) East Carolina 11:00 AM
The Tar Heels were fortunate to get a holding call in the end zone for a decisive safety in a
game where UNC was held scoreless for the first three quarters. North Carolina had a sizable
yardage edge in tough conditions at Connecticut but the running game was no where to be
found. Junior QB T.J. Yates has plenty of experience and this will be a revenge game from
two years ago for Coach Butch Davis and some of the Tar Heel players as East Carolina won
34-21 in 2007 against UNC. It was a one-point game at halftime but the Pirates likely could
have lost by much more than 15 after being out-gained 509-237 last week. West Virginia
turnovers kept ECU in the game but senior QB Patrick Pinkney had an awful game. North
Carolina has been labeled as a team on the rise this year but this is a program that rarely has
seen the results live up to the talent. UNC is now 2-0 and playing as a home favorite, coming
off a narrow win. This could be a bad spot going against ECU squad that has been a serious
upset-maker in recent years, including a 16-6 ATS mark in the last 22 games as underdogs.
East Carolina did not play well defensively last week but did create a few big plays and the
Pirates should be revitalized for a big performance this week in a marquee game against one
of the bigger schools in the region. NORTH CAROLINA BY 3
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-17) Miami, OH 6:00 PM
Miami has failed to score in two games, being out-scored 90-0 against two far superior teams.
This will be a more favorable match-up but the Redhawks are likely still in for a long rebuilding
season. After losing badly at Michigan in the opening week, Western Michigan had its
opportunity for a marquee win last week, falling by four against Indiana with a late fumble
squashing the upset bid. Western has a veteran QB but the running game has not provided
enough of an outlet for the Bronco offense. Western is much more of a passing team and the
potential will be there for big numbers this week. These teams have not met since ’06 and
much has changed as Miami has a new coach and few experienced players. Western
Michigan was 5-0 S/U at home last season and Miami has given little reason to believe they
can be competitive, although Western Michigan is also yet to cover this season. Both teams
should have their best opportunities to run their offenses this week. WESTERN BY 21
VANDERBILT (-8) Mississippi State 6:00 PM
Mississippi State beat Vanderbilt last season and both teams enter this match-up coming off
SEC losses. Vanderbilt hung with LSU last week but could not make enough plays although
the defense had a solid performance. Mississippi State led Auburn late in the second quarter
but then 28 unanswered points put the game out of reach. The final statistics were ugly as the
Bulldogs allowed nearly 600 yards. Last season Vanderbilt was held to only 107 yards in this
match-up but a lot has changed for Mississippi State this season. Vanderbilt looks like the
superior team so far this season but this is not a series that has played out well for the
Commodores as MSU has covered in six of the last seven meetings. Vanderbilt is a tough
team to trust as a favorite and there may be a bit of a hangover following a hard fought loss
last week in Baton Rouge that would have been a historic win. VANDERBILT BY 3
COLORADO (-7) Wyoming 2:30 PM
No team has been more of a disappointment than Colorado as the Buffaloes have lost both
games this season playing as favorites. Dismal first halves have led to huge outbursts in the
second halves but the rallies have fallen short and Coach Hawkins is in a bad position in a
season where the expectations have been elevated. Wyoming gave Texas a scare early last
week before a lopsided final result materialized. Colorado faced a difficult short week on the
road last week but allowing 624 yards affords little excuse. Wyoming has covered the last
three meetings with Colorado and the Cowboys will not have trouble adjusting to the altitude
as many other opponents might. Colorado is just 7-12 ATS at home since ’06 so Boulder has
not been as difficult of an environment as might be expected. Wyoming has a new staff this
season but the Cowboys did upset Tennessee last year on the road. This is do-or-die time for
Colorado and this team has to be better than they have shown. COLORADO BY 13
IOWA (-6) Arizona 2:30 PM
Despite being shorthanded last week Iowa was able to capitalize on turnovers and deliver a
convincing win against an Iowa State team that has had their number. Iowa’s nearembarrassing
opening week loss could actually propel the Hawkeyes to a strong season and
this is a key non-conference game. Arizona rushed for 365 yards last week in a victory over
Northern Arizona and in a great departure from past seasons, the Wildcats can be found near
the top of the national rushing rankings with over 600 yards in two games. Iowa has had nonconference
success in recent years as one of the few successful bowl teams from the Big Ten
so the Hawkeyes will likely be well prepared for this game even with Penn State up next.
Arizona has a fairly inexperienced team and this will be the first road game this season, facing
long travel and a hostile environment. Arizona is 8-17 S/U in road games under Coach Stoops
and Arizona will have to get it done through the air against Iowa, something they have not
proven capable of so far in the young season. IOWA BY 14
AKRON (-4) Indiana 2:30 PM
The Zips got a big win last week to gain some confidence for this match-up and Indiana will
hope to dodge another MAC power after a narrow escape last week. Indiana is 2-0 but both
games have been serious battles despite fairly weak competition. Akron is a veteran team on
offense and many favor the Zips as the top team in the MAC East. Indiana has been a terrible
road team in recent years and the Zips should get great support in the second game of the
new stadium on campus. This is the first time Akron has hosted a Big Ten opponent so this is
a huge game that the program has been gearing up for. Indiana has proven its mettle winning
two close games but pulling away on the road with the Big Ten season on deck makes for a
difficult situation even with line value on the Hoosiers side. AKRON BY 6
KANSAS (-20) Duke 11:00 AM
The Jayhawks have opened the season with two impressive wins including a solid road win at
UTEP last week. Kansas has allowed just 78 yards rushing in two games and Duke is not a
team likely to have a big day on the ground. Kansas has a veteran QB and the Jayhawks
have delivered a pronounced home field advantage 32-14 S/U since Coach Mangino took
over including a 17-7 ATS record as a home favorite in that span. Duke does not win games
often and they even more rarely win back-to-back games and this game can figure to be a
challenging second straight road game. Kansas has not been shy about pouring on the points
and they should do so as the late season schedule will be much tougher. Kansas QB Todd
Reesing has not yet put up huge numbers this season and this may be one of his best
opportunities in game that could start to get the Jayhawks a little attention. KANSAS BY 28
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (-15) Virginia 2:30 PM
Virginia was down 30-0 before scoring late last week to make the final score a bit more
respectable but the Cavaliers have fallen a long way to have lost badly as a double-digit
underdogs at home against a non-BCS conference team. The Virginia defense did a decent
job last week as it did in week 1 against William & Mary but the offense is often putting the
defense in very bad situations. Virginia started out last season poorly as well before making a
mid-season run so this is a team that should not be completely counted out just yet. Southern
Miss had a 2:1 yardage edge last week but the Eagles won by just seven in game that stayed
close in part due to special teams play. This will be a huge home game for Southern Miss and
they will be tough to slow down. SO MISS BY 17
OREGON (-4½) Utah 2:30 PM
The Chip Kelly era at Oregon has had a shaky start but securing a narrow win last week in a
wild game against Purdue was a big relief. Oregon was out-gained in that match-up and even
against a suspect Purdue defense the Duck offense rarely resembled the high-scoring unit of
recent seasons of the past. Utah is 2-0 to continue the longest winning streak in the nation but
that run appeared in jeopardy last week with a tie game in the fourth quarter before the Utes
pulled away. Utah has not been a great road favorite and this will be a second straight week
away from home. Utah had a huge yardage edge last week but so far through two games this
has been a turnover prone offense that has not scored with great efficiency. Utah has
dominated the Pac-10 at home but the Utes have just one road win against a Pac -10 team in
the past eight years and this could be a tough spot for the Utes. Oregon has displayed some
problems but this will be a favorable price on team that has been very strong at home in
recent seasons and still appears to have the tools to be one of the better teams out west
despite a rocky start to the year. OREGON BY 7
Usc (-21) WASHINGTON 2:30 PM
This would be a monumental upset considering Washington’s record last year but the Huskies
snapped the winless streak last week and showed against LSU in the opener that they can
compete with top notch talent. USC is in a tough spot facing a second straight road game with
long travel and coming off the great comeback win in the biggest game on the schedule. This
certainly qualifies as a letdown spot. USC has shown some weaknesses and the Trojans are
sure to be heavy road favorites in this game, actually going just 1-5 ATS in the past six
chances in that role. USC won 56-0 as a 45-point favorite last season so this will still be a
steep line but USC is still playing a freshmen QB and a very young defense. Washington did
allow a ton of yardage against Idaho last week so there are still some serious concerns for the
Huskies but the new coach in Seattle is former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian so
there will be a lot of familiarity with the Trojans. Last season’s game between these teams
came immediately after Willinghams’s firing announcement so it was a very flat effort and this
should be a motivated Washington team that could be a dangerous underdog. USC BY 14
UCLA (-10½) Kansas State 9:15 PM
A 48-yard field goal in the final minute lost last week’s game for Kansas State and despite a
soft opening schedule the Wildcats have not had a strong start in Coach Snyder’s return.
UCLA enters this game off a huge win at Tennessee so this will not be an ideal situation for
the Bruins. UCLA took advantages of turnovers last week as the offense only had 186 yards
and twelve first downs. UCLA did not exactly light it up offense in their opener either but at 2-0
and a favorable schedule ahead the Bruins figure to be serious players in the Pac -10 and
even national stage. UCLA is 14-5 in the last 19 games as home favorites and the K-State
offense should be forced into some bad situations while UCLA may create more turnovers in
this match-up as the Wildcats face long travel and a second-straight road game. UCLA BY 17
VIRGINIA TECH (-3½) Nebraska 2:30 PM
In what might have been a treacherous scheduling spot, Virginia Tech cruised with over 600
yards last week and a very strong defensive effort. Nebraska has faced off with two Sun Belt
teams and the final margins have been significant. Nebraska has allowed a decent amount of
yardage however so there will be questions regarding stopping a Hokies running game that
rushed for 444 yards last week. Last year Virginia Tech won in Lincoln 35-30 but Nebraska
was able to move the ball in a noble effort against a very strong defense. QB Zac Lee has little
experience but he had a near flawless game last week although this will be a huge increase in
the challenge level playing on the road against the Hokies. Virginia Tech was not impressive
defensively against Alabama in the opener however so there may be some opportunities for
Nebraska in this match-up though the Hokies are probably too tough. VIRGINIA TECH BY 7
NOTRE DAME (-11½) Michigan State 2:30 PM
The Irish could not hold on against Michigan last week and there will be no time to dwell on
the loss with a talented Michigan State team coming to town. An upset loss by the Spartans
last week likely elevates the spread but this MSU team should not be discounted as they have
had great success in this series including winning easily the past two seasons. Michigan State
is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series and last week’s loss could possibly be attributed
to looking ahead to this game. Notre Dame’s lofty rankings and projections have mainly been
based on the experience and schedule but the defense clearly had problems last week,
allowing 430 yards. Central Michigan is a very good team, likely the best in the MAC and the
Spartans allowed big passing numbers in the game which could be problematic heading into a
match-up against another strong passing offense. The MSU passing game led by two
sophomore QBs has not heeded great results so far but WR Blair White has had a big year.
The Spartans should be stung after losing on an onside kick conversion but Notre Dame may
be even more deflated as they faced much higher expectations. MICHIGAN STATE BY 3
Ohio State (-20½) Toledo @Cleveland, Ohio 11:00 AM
The Rockets enter this game coming off a huge national TV win over a major conference foe.
Ohio State enters this game off a deflating national loss in a game they led nearly the entire
way against USC. Toledo has put up a ton of yardage against two BCS conference teams this
year so this could be a dangerous match-up for the Buckeyes. This is technically a home
game for Toledo but the Buckeyes should be well supported in this battle of Ohio teams
played in Cleveland. Ohio State is also just 2-6 in the last eight games as double-digit
favorites and in playing Navy and USC the first two weeks Ohio State had to adjust for vastly
different offenses and an up-tempo Rockets squad that has had a lot of success could be in
favorable position. Ohio State’s defense has been far from dominant and the offense still
misses too many opportunities while lacking the running game that could help them pull away
and slow down this type of match-up. The Rockets are a veteran team, particularly on offense
and with over 1,100 yards in two games new coach Tim Beckman has the team moving the
ball. This will be a far bigger game for Toledo and a clear letdown spot for Ohio State who
also will have a key Big Ten opener against Illinois to look ahead to next week. Despite losing
the game, Ohio State gained some respect last week with a strong effort against USC and
could be overvalued in this game. OHIO STATE BY 17
AUBURN (-6½) West Virginia 6:45 PM
These teams are recent powerhouses that are going through transitions and despite some
gloomy projections for both squads the 2-0 starts have been encouraging. Both teams were
more dominant last week than the final score indicated and this game will propel the winner
upward in the national rankings and in a much more relevant place on the college football
landscape. Last season West Virginia won with relative ease with a dominant second half and
31 unanswered points in Morgantown. It was a lost season for Auburn however as the team
had been upset in back-to-back SEC games entering the marquee non-conference match-up.
The Mountaineers also had a much more veteran squad and faced the game in a more
favorable scheduling situation. West Virginia is passing the ball much more than in past years
while Auburn appears to be focused on running the ball, posting 390 yards on the ground last
week while putting up 301 in the first week. The Tigers have played a tough early season
schedule so they have had the production against decent teams. Coach Chizik fell under a lot
of heat as a questionable hire but so far things have looked promising. Auburn has enough
veterans to make this a smooth transition year and Coach Stewart has still not fully instilled
confidence since taking over at West Virginia. AUBURN BY 14
FLORIDA (-28½) Tennessee 2:30 PM
Coach Kiffin made headlines this winter calling out Urban Meyer for ‘cheating’ and providing
Florida with bulletin board material is probably not a smart move. Florida dismantled a decent
Troy squad last week and the Gators are heavy favorites in this match-up. Last season Florida
won 30-6 in Knoxville as just a 7½ point favorite Tennessee appeared to be in a favorable
situation last week but turnovers cost the Volunteers dearly inc luding four consecutive
possessions with a turnover. QB play will obviously be a huge advantage for Florida in this
match-up although Tennessee does possess an excellent secondary led by CB Eric Berry.
Florida has owned this series in recent years covering in eleven of the past 15 meetings and
despite being a heavy chalk in most situations the Gators have posted strong recent numbers
as home favorites. Florida has been waiting all summer for this game and despite a big spot
this should be a big win and cover for the #1 team in the nation. FLORIDA BY 38
Smu (-7) WASHINGTON STATE 4:00 PM
Seven turnovers plagued the Cougars last week and another long year is already well under
way for Washington State. The final score makes last week’s 38-20 loss appear to be a
competitive affair but Hawaii led 35-0 five minutes into the second quarter before Washington
State started to get some things together. Washington State allowed 626 yards last week
following a sound beating in the opener at home against Stanford. As a double-digit underdog
last week SMU surprised UAB and after one win in 2008, SMU has two in two games this year
with a great opportunity to move to 3-0 this week. SMU led 28-7 last week before a frantic
finish and the June Jones passing game appears to be finding some traction with big numbers
last week. The Mustangs have turned it over six times this season but they have benefited
from eleven turnovers by their two opponents and with the WSU offense more opportunities
are likely to be there. Though Washington State is far from a quality representative it will still
be a big deal for SMU to face off with a major conference opponent and most may not be
aware as to how much this team has improved from last year. SMU BY 14
San Diego State (-3½) IDAHO 4:00 PM
Last season one of the few bright spots for San Diego State came in a 45-17 win over Idaho.
The Vandals will host this time around this could be a difficult road trip for the Aztecs. San
Diego State is going through a transition after years of disappointment and the team held in
there against UCLA in the opening week and picked up an unspectacular but important win
over Southern Utah last week. Idaho won in the opener against New Mexico State and last
week played commendably at Washington. The Vandals had 20 first downs and actually outgained
the Huskies despite a 19-point loss that narrowly made Idaho 2-0 ATS on the year.
Idaho ultimately had to settle for field goals and the defense caved in key spots against a
faster and bigger team. Idaho features a veteran offense and with two teams that have really
struggled ATS recently the Vandals might have an opportunity for an upset. IDAHO BY 4
Nevada (-3) COLORADO STATE 4:00 PM
After what looked like a big win over Colorado in the opening week the Rams nearly lost to
FCS Weber State last week. Being a bit flat for that game is understandable but the win over
Colorado may not have been as impressive as it first looked. Weber State had 25 first downs
to just 12 for CSU as the Rams were out-gained and surrendered a lead before a fourth
quarter score pulled out a one-point home win. Colorado State failed to convert a third down in
the game but the narrow win could serve as a wake-up call for a young team. Nevada was a
trendy upset pick in the opening week against Notre Dame but the Wolf Pack could not find
the end zone. Nevada’s offense has had two weeks to prepare for this game after the poor
opening result. Nevada typically ends up with big number statistics at the end of the year but
much of that production comes against a bottom-heavy WAC. Colorado State has a great
record at home including 6-0 ATS in the last six lined home games and the Rams should be
given a mulligan for last week’s flat effort. COLORADO STATE BY 10
Bowling Green (-3) MARSHALL 6:00 PM
The Thundering Herd never came close last week against Virginia Tech as the Hokies
showed no ill-effects from the big game loss in week one. Marshall has a veteran team on
both sides of the ball but so far the results have been poor with that blowout loss and a very
narrow FCS win. Marshall has been a terrible favorite in recent history with a 5-13-1 ATS
record in the last 19 attempts. Bowling Green is supposedly rebuilding with few starters
returning and a new coach but so far the results have been impressive. The Falcons crushed
Troy despite falling behind early in the opening week and last week Bowling Green was on the
other end, getting a big lead against Missouri before eventually falling. Amazingly Bowling
Green has covered in eleven consecutive road games and this is a Falcons team that has
over performed expectations so far this season. Two games does not make a season but so
far Bowling Green has looked like the much better team and Marshall looks to be in for a long
season. Marshall has been a tough home team in the past but Coach Clawson should have
the Falcons prepared for this situation. BOWLING GREEN BY 7
California (-13½) MINNESOTA 11:00 AM
The Gophers have not displayed the offensive production that many expected but Minnesota
is 2-0, pulling out two close wins after being a team that often squandered opportunities in big
spots in past seasons. The opening of the new stadium in Minneapolis met great reviews and
should be a great atmosphere for a serious challenge for the Gophers with California visiting.
Cal has dominated two home games so far this season and despite being a great team in
Coach Tedford’s tenure the road performances have not been at the same level. These teams
met in Berkeley in 2006 with Cal winning 42-17 so this will be an immense challenge for the
Gophers who have been fortunate to win in both games so far this season. The Bears are a
legitimate national title threat but this will be the key stretch in the schedule with a challenging
non-conference road game before the Pac-10 opener at Oregon next week, and then the
huge home game with USC. Both teams hav e veteran QBs and quality offensive targets but
California should have more big play potential against a Minnesota defense that has been
decent but still is a vulnerable unit. A letdown could occur for Minnesota after a huge win last
week in an electric home opener. CALIFORNIA BY 21
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-4) Buffalo 6:30 PM
The Bulls put up big numbers against Pittsburgh last week but surrendered even more.
Buffalo has re-tooled and through two games this looks like one of the most explosive teams
in the MAC and a team with a shot at another bowl appearance. Central Florida was one of
the lowest scoring and yardage producing teams in the nation last year. The Golden Knights
posted just 194 yards last week but managed to hang close for the cover against Southern
Miss despite just eleven first downs. In the opening week UCF barely got by Samford and
despite returning much of last year’s team there has still been few effective drives. Buffalo has
covered in each of the last nine road games and the Bulls appear to still be a dangerous team
despite seemingly overachieving last season. BUFFALO BY 7
OKLAHOMA STATE (-31½) Rice 6:00 PM
The Cowboys got the huge opening week win they needed to rise to the national stage but a
shocking letdown loss took place last week as Houston upset Oklahoma State. The Cowboys
fell behind early and then rallied but Houston took over in the fourth quarter, exposing many of
the same problems on defense that have kept the Cowboys from taking the next step. Rice
will be the unfortunate victim in the path this week assuming OSU does not feel the season is
lost based on one non-conference loss. OSU does not play a FBS team until October 10th
after this game so Rice will not be overlooked as Houston may have been. Rice won ten
games last season but at 0-2 this is a much different team and this will be a third straight road
game. Rice was hammered by Texas Tech last week and also lost badly to UAB in the
opening week as the defense remains problematic and the offense has not been able to
match the production that carried the team last season. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 37
OKLAHOMA (-15½) Tulsa 6:00 PM
Tulsa is a dangerous team that is off to a 2-0 start with two blowout road wins. This will be a
third straight road game but the travel is not significant and there will be no lack of focus
facing a highly regarded Oklahoma team. The season has taken on a different picture after
the opening loss and the injury to Sam Bradford but the Sooners dominated last week in a
shutout win and won in Tulsa 62-21 two years ago. Oklahoma is 19-7 the last 26 games as
double-digit favorites despite the loss to BYU and the Sooners know they need to deliver great
results to get back into the elite picture. Tulsa’s offense is likely to be shut down against a
strong Sooners defense with a chip on its shoulder and the Hurricane do not have the
defensive personnel to slow down OU. Although Tulsa has been an impressive through two
weeks this is not an ideal opportunity to take down a giant. OKLAHOMA BY 28
BAYLOR (-10½) Connecticut 4:00 PM
The Bears won a big opening week game and this will be another challenging non-conference
threat. Connecticut was dominant against the run last week in a strong effort against a
talented North Carolina team but the Huskies finished with a deflating loss at home in a game
they had to have. That game was at home and Connecticut has not played well in the road
underdog role, including several blowout losses. Baylor has yet to prove it can deliver with the
growing expectations but the Bears have actually fared well in the rare recent opportunities as
home favorites. Baylor was also off last week so a solid game plan should be in tact.
Connecticut won by just three points last season in Storrs so this will be a payback game for
the Bears. Connecticut will have a tough time rebounding from a brutally tough loss and the
Huskies also will be without starting QB Frazer for this game. BAYLOR BY 13
TEXAS A&M (-17) Utah State 6:00 PM
This battle of Aggies features two improved teams that both had early season off weeks last
week. Texas A&M had a blowout win in week one while Utah State earned a narrow cover
against Utah. Both teams have a lot of experience and A&M has been a strong early season
team in recent years despite often fading late. A&M showed great balance in week one but
they did catch a favorable match-up against a New Mexico team facing a complete overhaul.
Utah State was lucky to break a few plays to stay close in the opener and there are likely not
enough playmakers to keep this a competitive game. Things should get better for Utah State
in the WAC season but this will be another tough game. TEXAS A&M BY 24
KENTUCKY (-11) Louisville 11:00 AM
This rivalry was a pretty big deal a few years ago but both teams are expected to be taking a
step back this season. Louisville is in a critical year for Coach Kragthorpe and it is hard to
gauge the Cardinals on one successful but underwhelming win over FCS Indiana State.
Defensively Louisville played well but the problems of the past may still be present against
better competition. Kentucky also had a big opening win that didn’t seem as dominant as the
42-0 final suggests. Kentucky won 27-2 last season so this will be a motivated Louisville team
though this has been an awful ATS team the past two years. Kentucky has covered in three of
the last four meetings and Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in the past five road games but the trends
may not hold up this year. Kentucky has been a surprise team the last few years but this is a
steep line in a big rivalry game. KENTUCKY BY 7
Iowa State (-2½) KENT STATE 6:00 PM
Turnovers killed any chance for the in-state upset last week for the Cyclones. Kent State beat
Iowa State in 2007 but the Cyclones got revenge last season winning 48-28 in Ames. Iowa
State has not won a road gam e since 2005, losing each of the last 17, so this will be a
challenging spot. Kent starting QB Giorgio Morgan had just 38 yards passing last week as the
Flashes were completely shut down by Boston College. Kent will have a rare opportunity to
host a major conference team but the Flashes have not had success playing at home, going
just 14-23 ATS under Coach Martin. Iowa State can not afford to lose this game but winning
on the road is a big step the Cyclones may not be ready to take. IOWA STATE BY 1
BYU (-7) Florida State 6:00 PM
Despite this big game on the horizon BYU showed no effects of stumbling in last week’s
letdown spot. The Cougars have not been a great performer as a non-conference favorite and
this will be a rare opportunity to face a non-western marquee opponent at home. This will also
be the first home game of the season for BYU, after going 18-0 S/U at home the past three
seasons. The Cougars have talent on offense but defense has carried the team so far this
season. Florida State lost a tough opening game against Miami, a game which they had a
great scoring opportunity that did not materialize late in the game. Last week the Seminoles
were on the ropes against Jacksonville State and former LSU QB Ryan Perrilloux, scoring
twice in the final 35 seconds to deliver a misleading ten-point win. The FSU pass defense has
been a terrible weakness so far this season and BYU has the tools to exploit that match-up.
Florida State is not often an underdog but they have done poorly in that role on the road and
BYU will again prove legit in a huge non-conference game. BYU BY 14
Georgia (PK) ARKANSAS 6:45 PM
While Georgia has endured fierce physical battles the opening two weeks Arkansas has
enjoyed a light early season with a blowout win over FCS Missouri State and an off-week last
week. Georgia held on for a key SEC win last week but the Bulldogs were significantly outgained
by South Carolina and the Bulldog offense created three more turnovers. Arkansas
has 18 starters back on a team that showed some promise late in the year in Coach Petrino’s
first season. Coach Richt has an incredible road record at Georgia, going 30-5 S/U but rarely
does a team face so many big games consecutively early in the year. Arkansas is on a 15-7
ATS run as a home underdogs and Georgia has shown too many early season mistakes to be
trusted in this match-up. The Razorbacks could be a serious surprise team this season and
this would be a great first step though there is little line value. ARKANSAS BY 7
Air Force (-17) NEW MEXICO 6:30 PM
The Falcons played well last week but could not come up with the spoiler win in Minnesota.
New Mexico is a team in a serious transition, which has been quite clear in the early going this
season. The Lobos have lost twice this season by lopsided margins, scoring a grand total of
16 points through two games. Air Force has covered in six of the last seven meetings between
these teams but won last season despite a major yardage disadvantage. Former New Mexico
Coach Long always did a great job containing the Air Force option attack but the Lobos have
instilled a whole new system and few players have significant real game experience. This will
be a second straight road game for Air Force but the Lobos have given no reason to consider
backing them and the Falcons should own the rushing edge. AIR FORCE BY 21
Utep (-13½) NEW MEXICO STATE 7:00 PM
The Miners have played the last two games at home in a season with fairly high expectations
and the results have not been pretty. A veteran offense has made many mistakes and the
defense has made few stops. This series has been inc redibly close the past three years with
New Mexico State winning the past two meetings. UTEP has been a terrible road team in the
recent years both S/U and ATS and after underperforming at home it is hard to expect great
things from the Miners in this match-up. This is a bigger rivalry than most realize in a battle of
nearby schools and the Aggies have shown a new commitment to running the ball this season
which should help the underdog. UTEP BY 4
TEXAS (-16½) Texas Tech 7:00 PM
This was one of the more memorable and important games in the Big 12 last season and
though many of the same key players are back in action for the Longhorns, Tech has had
great turnover. The Red Raiders had a big day last week with over 500 yards passing so the
offense can still be a serious threat. Texas struggled a bit in tough conditions at Wyoming but
eventually pulled through for a convincing win. This will be a key revenge game for Texas and
this will also be the first road game of the season for Texas Tech. Little has been proven for
the Red Raiders in a weak early season schedule and two years ago in Austin Texas won 59-
43. Texas has performed well in the home favorite role and this game has been the key focus
of the early season schedule. TEXAS BY 24
UNLV (-7) Hawaii 10:00 PM
The Runnin’ Rebels fell just short of a serious upset bid last week, losing on a last second
field goal. UNLV lost its starting QB in the game last week but back-up Mike Clausen
delivered two scoring drives in the 4th quarter to give UNLV a short-lived lead. In 2007 UNLV
lost 49-14 at home versus Hawaii but this should be a much different game as long as the
Rebels do not letdown after last week’s marquee home game. Hawaii beat a Pac -10 team last
week but Washington State gave the Warriors a lot of early opportunities. Hawaii greatly
struggled in the opening game and the defense certainly has some holes. UNLV BY 14
STANFORD (-18) San Jose State 8:00 PM
The Cardinal appeared on its way to a 2-0 start last week but could not hold on. This will be a
critical game for two teams with bowl hopes as Stanford can not afford another nonconference
loss. San Jose State is 0-2 but they have faced two teams that combined for one
loss last season and the Spartans held their own against Utah last week. Stanford has
dominated this series but last season was a very close game with the Cardinal pulling away
late to win by 13. Stanford is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games as home favorites and this is the
first home game of the season for the Cardinal. Last year Stanford’s only home loss was
against USC in a competitive game so this has become a tougher venue. STANFORD BY 21
OREGON STATE (-1½) Cincinnati 5:45 PM
The Bearcats were one of the great surprise stories last season and it has been an impressive
showing again this season, scoring 117 points in two games. The Cincinnati offense
dominated Rutgers in the opening week and there will be a lot of talent at the WR position in
this game. QB Canfield has stepped in admirably for Oregon State as the Beavers needed a
late score to avoid an upset last week. Two years ago Oregon State won 34-3 in this series
aided by turnovers. The Beavers own an impressive home field but there are significant
questions on defense for this team. Coach Kelly has a great track record and Cincinnati is 11-
1-1 ATS in the last 13 games as underdogs. CINCINNATI BY 4
RUTGERS (-15) Florida International 4:00 PM
After an ugly opening performance Rutgers has already made a QB change and freshmen
Tom Savage was efficient last week although the running game paved the way. FIU earned a
cover as a big underdog at Alabama last week and the Panthers have a veteran group that
avoided big mistakes in last week’s game despite being overmatched. Rutgers has a solid
recent history as a large favorite but the Knights also were poor early season performers last
season and looking ahead to a big non-conference game next week is a possibility. Panthers
coach Cristobal worked under Coach Schiano so this will be a big game for the veteran FIU
team that went 8-4 ATS last season. RUTGERS BY 14
ALABAMA (NL) North Texas 1:00 PM
North Texas QB Riley Dodge left last week’s game with an injury and the Mean Green
suffered a narrow loss despite out-gaining Ohio. North Texas is a greatly improved team this
year and the biggest difference has been highly visible on defense with two solid efforts this
season. Alabama will be a much tougher challenge but the Crimson Tide has been a lousy
ATS team as a home favorite. This could also be a difficult game with the SEC opener up next
and in 2007 the Tide lost S/U to a Sun Belt team. North Texas has not performed well as a
huge underdog in recent years but the numbers from the past two years should be ignored as
this is a vastly improved squad. ALABAMA BY 27
MARYLAND (-6½) Middle Tennessee State 2:20 PM
The Blue Raiders did not hold up against the ACC’s Clemson in the opening week but last
week a big home win over Memphis provided a big score. That was a key game for MTSU
with a rare big-time home opponent and there could be a letdown factor even though this is
another big match-up. Maryland lost in Murfreesboro last season and it has not been an
encouraging start for the Terrapins so far this year with a narrow escape against FCS James
Madison last week. James Madison is one of the elite FCS teams and the opening loss to Cal
was also a very tough match-up so Maryland is likely much better than the early numbers
indicate. With revenge in this game and catching MTSU off a big win this should be an
opportunity for a strong performance. MARYLAND BY 17
SOUTH CAROLINA (-21) Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
It has been a similar story for South Carolina in recent years as they often play well and
dominate the statistics in big games but find ways to fall short. South Carolina creamed
Georgia in the yardage last w eek but a lapse in the middle of the game set up a few scores
and forced the Gamecocks to make the comeback bid. The Gamecocks have been a tough
favorite and overlooking this game is not an option as every win is needed in a tough
schedule. Florida Atlantic has not performed well as a large underdog and though the Owls
have held up well against some mid-level teams they have mainly been destroyed by SEC
competition. Although it was a tough loss, the offense was encouraging for SC last week while
the defense should still be an elite unit despite 41 points allowed. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 24
TROY (-7) Uab 2:30 PM
Troy was expected to be a potential ten-win team this season but a 0-2 start makes that a
difficult task. The Trojans are expected to be the top team in the Sun Belt but a tough opener
against Bowling Green and a non-competitive effort last week against Florida was not part of
the plan. UAB has won the last two meetings between these teams and the Blazers are
reeling after a narrow loss last week. After falling behind early, UAB made a valiant comeback
bid and the Blazers did win big in their opening game against Rice. This will be the home
opener for Troy and the Trojans have excelled in those situations. Look for an impressive
effort from the Troy squad that was expected to show up this season, as the season is far
from lost for a team that still should end up in the postseason. TROY BY 14
LSU (-26) Louisiana 6:00 PM
The Ragin’ Cajuns scored a serious upset last week knocking off Kansas State at home and
ULL will face its first road game of the season in a very hostile environment. The Cajuns could
be a threat as a big underdog as they have an effective ground game and the LSU defense
has been less than dominant so far this season. In ’06 LSU won 45-3 in this match-up but this
could be a tricky game sandwiched in between SEC affairs. LSU has not looked as strong as
some of the other highly ranked teams but the Tigers have played two BCS conference teams
and this should be a much more favorable personnel match-up. The Tigers are just 1-9-1 ATS
in the past eleven games as home favorites however and the offense has not been that
productive so far this season. Louisiana has to letdown a bit after such a big win for the
program and the Cajuns will be a bit in awe taking on the state’s top program. LSU BY 31
ARIZONA STATE (-18) UL-Monroe 9:00 PM
The Sun Devils delivered a dominant defensive performance in the opening week and there
will be no looking ahead to Georgia coming off a bye week and after ASU was upset in that
situation last season. Arizona State has been a very solid performer in the home favorite role
and UL-Monroe will be in for a much tougher match-up this week after w inning 58-0 last week
and posting nearly 600 yards of offense. Monroe faces a key conference game next week and
the Warhawks will be better served conserving for that game. ULM did score 20 points and
post nearly 300 yards of offense against Texas in the opening week so there is some potential
on this team. ASU was a huge disappointment last season but the Sun Devils may be capable
of surprising with an impressive follow -up year as Coach Erickson has a very strong track
record wherever he has been except in the NFL. ARIZONA STATE BY 28
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 TENNESSEE (-7) over Houston
RATING 4 CAROLINA (+6½) over Atlanta
RATING 3 SAN FRANCISCO (+1) over Seattle
RATING 2 DENVER (-3) over Cleveland
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (-3½) over Arizona
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and all lines are obviously subject to change
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2009
KANSAS CITY (NL) Oakland 12:00 PM
Depending on how Oakland fares Monday night the Chiefs could actually be a decent-sized
favorite in this match-up given a historical home field edge, an encouraging week one
performance, and the general perception of ineptitude that plagues the Raiders. Oakland has
a decent defense however and the Raiders won 23-8 in Kansas City last year. The Chiefs are
just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 home games and although QB Croyle looked capable and the
defense made some big plays, there was a huge yardage deficit last w eek . Oakland should
have a solid rushing edge in this match-up as well. OAKLAND BY 3
TENNESSEE (-7) Houston (40) 12:00 PM
In a terrific opening game the Titans failed with several opportunities to take the win and the
last team to lose in 2008 was the first to lose in 2009. It could be argued that no team looked
worse in week 1 than Houston, a team expected to post big numbers on offense and with
elevated expectations after back-to-back 8-8 campaigns. The running game was no where to
be found and the defense allowed a rookie QB in his debut game to have great success. The
Texans were out-rushed 190-38 last week, a bad sign when Tennessee just held the Super
Bowl champions to 36 rushing yards. Houston beat Tennessee 13-12 the last time these
teams met but the game was of less consequence to the Titans who were in firm playoff
position and it was Houston’s lone ATS win in the last six meetings. TITANS BY 14
New England (NL) NY JETS 12:00 PM
The Jets were a very tough team to run against last week but forcing New England to pass
may not be a viable plan of attack. The Patriots have a short week to build for this game which
could be problematic with a veteran squad but they also will face rookie QB Sanchez in a
pressure filled home debut. The Jets beat New England the last time these teams met and
though there have been many changes in New York this will be a key game for the Patriots
after failing to win the division last season. New York looked great in week one which might
actually create value on the consensus top team in the league. PATRIOTS BY 13
GREEN BAY (-9) Cincinnati (42) 12:00 PM
The Packers emerged victorious in a wild Sunday night game while the comeback drive for
the Bengals proved not enough as an amazing 87-yard reception stole the opener in
Cincinnati for the Broncos. Cincinnati played well on defense last week but the offense had far
too many mistakes and missed opportunities and now faces a secondary that made a ton of
big plays last week. The Packers offense did not live up to its billing last week and the recent
history in the favorite role is poor for Green Bay. The Bengals are expected to be greatly
improved and this will be the true test. PACKERS BY 6
Minnesota (-9½) DETROIT (46½) 12:00 PM
Matthew Stafford made some great throws in his debut but he also had three interceptions
and got caught up in an impossible battle in a shootout with the Saints. The Lions showed
some resolve and rallied to keep the game interesting but the result was familiar to many
games last season. Detroit played Minnesota tough both games last season but the Lions
have been a lousy ATS team at home. The Vikings did what they needed to do last week and
playing indoors in a familiar venue should be favorable for this offense. Minnesota did not
deliver much in the air last week but they may not need to very often. VIKINGS BY 16
PHILADELPHIA (NL) New Orleans 12:00 PM
The Eagles rolled to the biggest blowout in week 1 thanks to turnovers and big plays. The
Saints posted huge numbers last week as the offense rolled through the Lions. This will be a
much tougher match-up for the Saints but New Orleans could catch a huge break with QB
McNabb unlikely to play in this game. McNabb did not have a great game last week but he is
the leader on the Eagles and this could be a chance for the Saints to steal a win and move to
the top of the NFC. The Eagles are a tough home team but it will be hard for the offense to
keep up in a potential shootout with a back-up QB. SAINTS BY 7
ATLANTA (-6½) Carolina (43½) 12:00 PM
The Falcons seemingly impressed last week but the offense really had some issues including
virtually no production on the ground. The suspect Atlanta defense appeared vulnerable but
four turnovers proved the difference in an opening win. Turnovers were the story in Carolina
as well with another nightmare game from QB Delhomme. Another chance is in order and the
running game was having success before the big plays changed priorities. It is far too soon to
write-off the Panthers and Atlanta will be overvalued in this game. PANTHERS BY 3
WASHINGTON (-10) St. Louis (37) 12:00 PM
The Rams failed to score in week one despite creating three turnovers as a rare blowout loser
that had a significant turnover edge. That is not a good sign for the offense now facing what
should be one of the better defenses in the NFC. Washington scored late to narrow the
margin last week and the Redskins were never really in position to win. The Redskins didn’t
play poorly but the Giants were just a little better in every area and completely controlled the
time of possession. St. Louis clearly has problems but Washington is a tough team to trust in
a favored role and they have covered in just one of the past six at home. REDSKINS BY 4
JACKSONVILLE (-3½) Arizona (43) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars gave up a lot of yards last week but were tough against the run and held firm in
key spots. The offense could not do enough and a narrow loss in a big division game resulted.
The same fate met Arizona but the defending NFC champs were at home in that game and
now face cross country travel. In two east coast road games last season the Cardinals
allowed 24, 56, 27, 48, and 47 so this could be a problematic spot for the defense. Arizona
also appeared to be missing former OC Todd Haley as the heralded receiving corps made
little impact in the game until it was too late. The Jaguars need to take this game or else it will
be another long season. JAGUARS BY 10
Seattle (-1) SAN FRANCISCO (40½) 3:05 PM
Seattle looked more impressive last week but considering the venues and the opponents the
Niners got the much bigger division win. San Francisco has turned things around under Coach
Singletary and this will be the key game to see if this is really a team that could challenge for
the playoffs. Seattle got away with very sloppy play early in the game as St. Louis had very
limited production on offense. The road team won both meetings last season but San
Francisco should have the superior running game and likely a less interception prone QB as
Shaun Hill has quietly been a classic game manager that all of sudden owns an 8-3 career
record. Hasselbeck appeared rusty last week and this will be a tougher game. 49ERS BY 7
BUFFALO (NL) Tampa Bay 3:05 PM
After an awful preseason it remains to be seen what the Bills accomplish Monday night. Too
much should not be read into that game as New England may be one of the top teams in the
league. Tampa Bay delivered a strong running game last week and Byron Leftwich was
capable at QB but the defense ultimately folded, particularly in the secondary. Historically the
Bills have held one of the tougher home field edges in the league while Tampa Bay has
struggled on the road in recent years. The Bucs are fortunate to play in Buffalo now rather
than after winter sets in but Tampa has won just seven road games in the past three seasons.
The ground results could prove decisive as the Bills are shorthanded without RB Lynch and
Tampa Bay might be a dog worth backing catching Buffalo off a short week. BILLS BY 3
DENVER (-3) Cleveland (39) 3:15 PM
After a bizarre and difficult off-season, no team needed an opening win more than Denver and
somehow the Broncos got it done. Denver did little right all day on offense but played
commendable defense and all that matters is the end results. Most project Denver as one of
the worst teams in the NFL but given the schedule ahead this is a team that has sleeper
potential. The defense looks vastly improved and QB Orton is a proven winner even if he
lacks eye-popping abilities or statistics. The Browns held tough for a while last week but
ultimately the same problems arouse, an inability to stop the run and QB mistakes. Cleveland
scored on special teams so the offense was not as productive as it appears. Denver did not
cover in a home game last season but the value may be back. BRONCOS BY 10
SAN DIEGO (NL) Baltimore 3:15 PM
The identity change for Baltimore continues as the Ravens posted 501 yards last week
including a 300 yard passing day from QB Flacco. Baltimore allowed 24 points but the
defense did hold firm, allowing just 29 rushing yards and 188 overall. The Ravens were lucky
to steal a narrow cover, but the yardage was a complete mismatch. San Diego faces a short
week but catches the Ravens facing very long travel. Baltimore won five road games last
season but the Ravens mainly failed against the elite teams last season and San Diego
figures to be in that mix. After an odd 2008 season San Diego should deliver dominant
performances at home and the Chargers should have an offense that can take advantage of
some of the new found weaknesses on the Baltimore defense. CHARGERS BY 9
Pittsburgh (-3) CHICAGO (37½) 3:15 PM
On and off the field Jay Cutler is infinitely more interesting than any Bears QB since Jim
McMahon but whether he can win remains in doubt. Cutler looked awful at times last week
and the four interceptions will stand out but he also made some great throws and his receivers
missed some opportunities. Pittsburgh won the opener but easily could have lost as they were
mostly out-played against Tennessee. The Bears defense may not be at that level but
Chicago caused a lot of problems for a Packers offense that is expected to post huge
numbers this season. An injury to Brian Urlacher looms large but the Steelers have lost Troy
Polamalu and Cutler may find some space to throw in. A few botched plays and a lack of
focus on rushing the ball likely cost the Bears the win last week and Chicago could be a
dangerous home dog as Pittsburgh has not had road favorite success. BEARS BY 3
DALLAS (-3) NY Giants (44) 7:20 PM
The Cowboys did not look like a juggernaut last week but they were effective on offense and
made enough big plays to pull away in what was a close game early. The new stadium
opening will grab a lot of attention and historically the Giants have not had success in Dallas.
Surprisingly the Cowboys are 6-1 in the last seven games as favorites and New York’s
defense was not as dominant as might have been expected last week. Dallas won 20-8
against New York in a big spot last season at home and the running game was completely
shut down in that game. Dallas will be focusing on stopping the run after Tampa Bay had
success last week and the Cowboys are actually undervalued at this point. COWBOYS BY 7
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2009
Indianapolis (-3) MIAMI (42) 7:35 PM
Miami was a team that caught a ton of breaks last season in amazing turnaround season and
the payback started in a big way last week. In a game that was very even statistically the
Dolphins lost 19-7 due to four turnovers including a few in huge spots that took points off the
board and put them on the other side. The Miami defense was outstanding against the run last
week and the Colts will likely be forced to the air again this week. Indianapolis lost #2 WR
Gonzalez to injury and Indianapolis has covered in just thee of the last twelve meetings with
Miami. Indianapolis has been a strong Monday night team but this could be a problematic
match-up and Miami has a lot of potential on offense even if it was not realized last week.
Miami should be a home underdog that owns the ground game in this match-up, a favorable
edge in a primetime match-up. COLTS BY 2
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Stubborn Chalk: 0-2 favorites favored in every game
PLAY ON: Any 0-2 NCAA home favorite that has been
favored in each of the first two games of the season.
10-4, 71.4% since ’91
PLAY ON: Colorado
Tighten It: Teams playing as double-digit favorites are 9-1, 90%
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
On the Road Again: 2nd in row on road vs. foes off losses
PLAY ON: Any week 2 NFL road team that played on the
road in week 1 and faces a team that lost S/U in week 1.
32-17-2, 65.3% since ’80 (16-5-1, 76.1% since ’97)
PLAY ON: Minnesota Vikings
Tighten It: Teams playing as favorites are 12-5-1, 70.6%
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘OVER’ USC at Washington
Washington allowed significant yardage to Idaho last week and as
the defense has not been able to shut down opponents and there
have been big special team plays as well. Coach Sarkisian will know
how to attack his former team so the Huskies should have some
success against a USC defense that has allowed only 18 points in
two games, forcing an artificially low total. The USC defense will
face a stiff test in a supreme letdown situation in a second straight
road game which could lead to some missed assignments.
Washington posted big yardage against LSU and won’t be
intimidated in this match-up despite being winless last season.
NFL: ‘OVER’ New England at NY Jets
The last time these teams played there was 65 points scored. A lot
has changed and two different QBs will be in the match-up but Tom
Brady is a clear upgrade and Mark Sanchez showed a lot of promise
in week one. The Jets defense looked very sharp and a New
England’s defense likely will perform well against Buffalo which
could force a lower number on this game. The history in this series
is lower scoring but remember many of those games took place in
cold weather late season conditions.
2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through September 13)
Home teams are 40-40-1
Favorites are 41-44-1
Double-Digit Favorites are 27-25-1
Home Favorites are 27-29-1
Road Favorites are 11-13
NFL (through September 13)
Home teams are 5-8-1
Favorites are 8-5-1
Double-Digit Favorites are 2-0
Home Favorites are 5-5-1
Road Favorites are 3-0
TREND OF THE WEEK
Bowling Green has covered in eleven consecutive road games
NOW 2-0 ON 3* PHONE PICKS!
NFL 2/3 ALSO WINS, NEWSLETTER PICKS ARE 61-41 SO FAR
THE GREEN SHEET $8.00
Volume XX – Issue 3
September 14, 2009
We rank our Key Selections in order of preference, grading them on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being a top selection. This does not mean we recommend you wager 5 times more on a 5 rating
than on a 1 rating. Our Phone Service works that way, but not the newsletter. Lines listed are as of early in the week and could be considerably different by game time. For games that are not key selections, the farther our difference from the line, the stronger the opinion. Remember to stay conservative because it is a long season. Weekend Phone Selections are available every Friday, 3:00 pm Central. Call us toll-free at 1-800-33-NELLY. Our address is Nelly’s Sportsline / P.O. Box 6433 / Madison, WI 53716-0433, or contact us through Nelly's Sportsline .
Copyright © 2009. All rights reserved. Nelly’s Sportsline is a registered trademark.
LAST WEEKS NEWSLETTER:
Our key selections have not made a big run yet going 6-6 last week but
overall picks from newsletter have succeeded at a nearly 60% clip with a
61-41 record through our first two full issues and our preseason issue.
NELLY’S 2009 ANNUAL:
Don’t throw out the Annual! The ‘Pointspread Preview’ picks are 8-2
through the first two weeks including Houston’s big upset last Saturday.
NELLY’S PHONE SERVICE:
September has been a big month for our phone service in recent years and
we have had two PLUS weekends in two weeks this year. We won our 3*
top play in college for the second straight week and our opening NFL 2/3
package was also profitable. The only disappointment has been the
Computer Slam. We will be featuring another 3* top play in college football
this week and another guaranteed NFL 2/3 package for Sunday . Last
season our phone service was profitable in 16 of 22 football weeks and
now we have made that run 18 of the last 24 weeks finishing PLUS $!
GREEN LIGHT REPORT:
The Green Light Report went 2-1 for the second straight week on our rising
star selections. Check for the report as an additional page added on the
online version or through a phone update every Friday. If you need a
telephone PIN number please contact the office. On to this week’s slate…
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 OKLAHOMA (-15½) over Tulsa
RATING 4 AUBURN (-6½) over West Virginia
RATING 3 SYRACUSE (+4) over Northwestern
RATING 2 CALIFORNIA (-13½) over Minnesota
RATING 2 BUFFALO (+4) over Central Florida
RATING 1 MICHIGAN STATE (+11½) over Notre Dame
RATING 1 FLORIDA (-28½) over Tennessee
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2009
MIAMI, FL (-4½) Georgia Tech 6:45 PM
This will be the second straight primetime Thursday night game for Georgia Tech, now sitting
at 2-0. Both teams in this match-up have ACC wins already and this will be a critical Coastal
division match-up between teams that hope to challenge Virginia Tech for the title. Georgia
Tech rushed for 472 yards in a dominant win in Miami last season but Miami’s run defense
looked improved in the opening game, holding Florida State to 110 yards on 30 carries. The
Hurricanes have had much more time to prepare for this game with an off-week last weekend.
Miami has been a terrible home favorite in recent years going 5-14 ATS in the last 19
attempts. Last week Georgia Tech got off to a 24-0 lead but then needed two late field goals
to tie and then overtake Clemson. That poor finish should leave a motivated Yellow Jackets
team with plenty to work on. Miami QB Jacory Harris impressed last week as Miami passed
for 386 yards but the Hurricanes will be unable to match the rushing numbers that Tech is
likely to post. Georgia Tech has beat Miami each of the last four years and this looks like a
game where the underdog will have a big rushing edge, which is always a very favorable
cover situation in college football. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2009
Boise State (-7½) FRESNO STATE 8:00 PM
Without the blue turf, Boise State is not as tough but the Broncos have only lost ATS in one of
the past seven road contests as favorites. Fresno State has had very little success in this
series in the last decade including failing to cover in seven of the past eight meetings. Boise
State cruised to a dominant 48-0 win last week against Miami, Ohio and in two games the
Broncos have allowed a total of just 69 rushing yards. Boise State is well known for its
offensive prowess but the defense may carry the team this season after two dominant efforts.
Fresno State outplayed Wisconsin last week but had a couple of costly turnovers to surrender
the lead and then fail in overtime. The Bulldogs showed a lot of promise last week and QB
Ryan Colburn made many excellent throws but it will be a tough follow -up after narrowly
missing a big upset opportunity. Boise State won 61-10 at home against Fresno State last
season so there should be plenty of motivational material for the Bulldogs but the gap
between these two powers of the WAC may be growing. Although Boise State gets more
attention for dominant home numbers, the Broncos are 15-2 S/U in road games under Coach
Petersen including going 6-0 S/U and 5-1 ATS last season. BOISE STATE BY 17
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2009
ARMY (-8) Ball State 11:00 AM
After losing at home to a North Texas team that went 1-11 in 2008 in the opening game, Ball
State responded with a 16-23 loss to FCS New Hampshire last week. The Cardinals averaged
443 yards per game last season but last week posted 129 yards of offense and just nine first
downs. New Hampshire is a well regarded team in the FCS division, ranked #9 going into that
game but Ball State clearly has some issues and Nate Davis is sorely missed at the QB
position. Ball State has defeated Navy the last two seasons and will have another crack at a
triple-option service academy this week facing an Army team that has split the first two
games. Army is expected to be an improved team this season with even a shot at a bowl bid
but last week’s home loss was a big set-back to those ideas. Army soundly out-gained Duke
last week but four turnovers proved costly. The Army defense held Duke to just 236 yards, a
week after holding Eastern Michigan to just 223 yards. Army has not exactly faced offensive
juggernauts, but the results have been encouraging and facing a Ball State team that does not
have much rhythm may be another favorable situation. Army is a dangerous team to back as
the records in recent years are very poor but new coach Ellerson has this team on track for
some margin of success in the near future. ARMY BY 6
PURDUE (-12½) Northern Illinois 11:00 AM
The Boilermakers have been incredibly productive on offense with 986 yards and 88 points in
two games. Purdue had a nice showing last week at Oregon, but ultimately fell short and this
could be a tricky game with Notre Dame visiting town next week. Last season Purdue won by
just seven in a tough game against Central Michigan from the MAC, played in a very similar
spot on the schedule. Northern Illinois is 13-5 as double-digit underdogs since 2000 and the
Huskies gave a commendable opening week effort against Wisconsin, a team generally
ranked ahead of Purdue in the Big Ten pecking order. NIU did not post great statistics in that
game but last week the Huskies gained some confidence with a 41-7 win ov er FCS Western
Illinois. The Huskies rushed for 244 yards last week and NIU covered in both games against
BCS conference opponents last season, actually holding great shots at major upsets in a pair
of 4-point losses. This looks like a tough situation for Purdue coming off a heartbreaking loss
and facing one of its biggest games of the season coming up next. PURDUE BY 7
MICHIGAN (-22½) Eastern Michigan 11:00 AM
Against the Big Ten’s Northwestern last week, Eastern Michigan made a miraculous
comeback attempt that fell just short. In the gam e the Eagles were out-gained by only 23
yards in that game and it was encouraging effort after a poor opening week performance.
Eastern coach Ron English is a former Michigan assistant so this will be a big game for him
but it will also be a second straight road game for the Eagles. Michigan came up with a late
score to steal a victory in one of the huge games last week. The win over Notre Dame has
Michigan back in the top 25 and the Wolverines have been impressive on offense after great
struggles last season. Michigan QB Tate Forcier is just a freshman but he showed a lot of
poise last week and the offensive line is providing quality protection. This could be tough
letdown spot for Michigan, particularly with the homecoming Big Ten opener on deck and this
will be an inflated spread for a team that is still very young and inexperienced. Eastern
Michigan will get a lot of points in this game and the Eagles may be able to hang around for a
while and force a few Michigan mistak es. MICHIGAN BY 21
PITTSBURGH (-7) Navy 5:00 PM
Pittsburgh won convincingly last week but the defense allowed 500 yards as Buffalo made
several big plays through the air. In 2007 Navy beat the Panthers but last season Pitt won 42-
21 in Annapolis. The Panthers actually out-rushed Navy last season which can be a difficult
thing to do and the Pittsburgh offense had 209 yards on the ground last week. There was no
letdown for navy after the near-miss against Ohio State as the Midshipmen dominated a
Louisiana Tech team that went to a bowl game last season. Navy is a very dangerous
underdog with great ATS numbers in recent years while Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in the last eight
games as home favorites. Navy has easily covered in both games this season and trying to go
against a team that is sure to rush for big numbers as an underdog makes little sense.
Pittsburgh has been impressive so far this season but the Panthers have not been an
impressive ATS home team under Coach Wannstedt. PITTSBURGH BY 6
Northwestern (-4) SYRACUSE 6:00 PM
Syracuse is 0-2 while Northwestern is 2-0 but the competition has been vastly different.
Syracuse has held its own against two Big Ten teams, losing in overtime against Minnesota
and playing respectably close against Penn State. The Orange has shown significant
improvement on defense as two strong offensive teams have only posted modest numbers.
Syracuse has made some mistakes on offense but this should be a favorable match-up.
Northwestern won against one of the worst FCS teams in week one and last week squeaked
out a very narrow win in a game that was statistically quite even last week against Eastern
Michigan at home. Last season Northwestern beat Syracuse 30-10 at home but this will be the
first road game for a rather inexperienced offense. Expect to get solid value on Syracuse at
home following two losses but the Orange has looked like a legitimately improved team
against two quality opponents. SYRACUSE BY 7
CLEMSON (-7) Boston College 11:00 AM
There were some mistakes but Clemson QB Kyle Parker led a furious comeback attempt last
week before Clemson eventually lost a tight game against Georgia Tech. This will be a critical
game for the Tigers looking to avoid a 0-2 hole in ACC in a season with expectations to
contend for a division title. Boston College is quietly 2-0 with two dominant wins but the
competition takes a big leap forward this week. The Eagles and a young offense will have a
much tougher time this week after cruising with little resistance the past two weeks. Clemson
beat Boston College last season in Chestnut Hill but BC had won the previous five meetings.
Boston College has been an impressive underdog, covering in 13 of the last 17 games as
underdogs. Not much can be taken from Boston College’s two wins but they did completely
shutdown the Kent running game last week. BC could have a ground edge in this match-up
and the Eagles are a continually undervalued team that has had great success in the
underdog role while Clemson may be burnt out after a tough loss. BOSTON COLLEGE BY 3
PENN STATE (-29½) Temple 11:00 AM
The Nittany Lions have won comfortably in both games this season but both games resulted
in ATS losses. Another lopsided win should be in order as Penn State continues a very easy
non-conference slate but trusting the Lions to overcome a steep number is risky. The Big Ten
opener, a big revenge match-up against Iowa, is next up for Penn State so they would not be
blamed for overlooking Temple. Temple also was off last week and the Owls have had an
extra week to prep for this game coming off a disappointing loss to FCS Villanova in the
opening week. Temple returns 15 starters from last year and the Owls have been a winning
ATS team each of the past two seasons. Temple had five turnovers in the opener to contribute
to the loss and the Owls were a competitive team last season though they lost 45-3 against
Penn State. The Nittany Lions have won and covered each of the last three seasons against
Temple but that will create a very high spread in this match-up and Temple might be able stay
within the margin for another Lions ATS miss. PENN STATE BY 28
NORTH CAROLINA (-6) East Carolina 11:00 AM
The Tar Heels were fortunate to get a holding call in the end zone for a decisive safety in a
game where UNC was held scoreless for the first three quarters. North Carolina had a sizable
yardage edge in tough conditions at Connecticut but the running game was no where to be
found. Junior QB T.J. Yates has plenty of experience and this will be a revenge game from
two years ago for Coach Butch Davis and some of the Tar Heel players as East Carolina won
34-21 in 2007 against UNC. It was a one-point game at halftime but the Pirates likely could
have lost by much more than 15 after being out-gained 509-237 last week. West Virginia
turnovers kept ECU in the game but senior QB Patrick Pinkney had an awful game. North
Carolina has been labeled as a team on the rise this year but this is a program that rarely has
seen the results live up to the talent. UNC is now 2-0 and playing as a home favorite, coming
off a narrow win. This could be a bad spot going against ECU squad that has been a serious
upset-maker in recent years, including a 16-6 ATS mark in the last 22 games as underdogs.
East Carolina did not play well defensively last week but did create a few big plays and the
Pirates should be revitalized for a big performance this week in a marquee game against one
of the bigger schools in the region. NORTH CAROLINA BY 3
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-17) Miami, OH 6:00 PM
Miami has failed to score in two games, being out-scored 90-0 against two far superior teams.
This will be a more favorable match-up but the Redhawks are likely still in for a long rebuilding
season. After losing badly at Michigan in the opening week, Western Michigan had its
opportunity for a marquee win last week, falling by four against Indiana with a late fumble
squashing the upset bid. Western has a veteran QB but the running game has not provided
enough of an outlet for the Bronco offense. Western is much more of a passing team and the
potential will be there for big numbers this week. These teams have not met since ’06 and
much has changed as Miami has a new coach and few experienced players. Western
Michigan was 5-0 S/U at home last season and Miami has given little reason to believe they
can be competitive, although Western Michigan is also yet to cover this season. Both teams
should have their best opportunities to run their offenses this week. WESTERN BY 21
VANDERBILT (-8) Mississippi State 6:00 PM
Mississippi State beat Vanderbilt last season and both teams enter this match-up coming off
SEC losses. Vanderbilt hung with LSU last week but could not make enough plays although
the defense had a solid performance. Mississippi State led Auburn late in the second quarter
but then 28 unanswered points put the game out of reach. The final statistics were ugly as the
Bulldogs allowed nearly 600 yards. Last season Vanderbilt was held to only 107 yards in this
match-up but a lot has changed for Mississippi State this season. Vanderbilt looks like the
superior team so far this season but this is not a series that has played out well for the
Commodores as MSU has covered in six of the last seven meetings. Vanderbilt is a tough
team to trust as a favorite and there may be a bit of a hangover following a hard fought loss
last week in Baton Rouge that would have been a historic win. VANDERBILT BY 3
COLORADO (-7) Wyoming 2:30 PM
No team has been more of a disappointment than Colorado as the Buffaloes have lost both
games this season playing as favorites. Dismal first halves have led to huge outbursts in the
second halves but the rallies have fallen short and Coach Hawkins is in a bad position in a
season where the expectations have been elevated. Wyoming gave Texas a scare early last
week before a lopsided final result materialized. Colorado faced a difficult short week on the
road last week but allowing 624 yards affords little excuse. Wyoming has covered the last
three meetings with Colorado and the Cowboys will not have trouble adjusting to the altitude
as many other opponents might. Colorado is just 7-12 ATS at home since ’06 so Boulder has
not been as difficult of an environment as might be expected. Wyoming has a new staff this
season but the Cowboys did upset Tennessee last year on the road. This is do-or-die time for
Colorado and this team has to be better than they have shown. COLORADO BY 13
IOWA (-6) Arizona 2:30 PM
Despite being shorthanded last week Iowa was able to capitalize on turnovers and deliver a
convincing win against an Iowa State team that has had their number. Iowa’s nearembarrassing
opening week loss could actually propel the Hawkeyes to a strong season and
this is a key non-conference game. Arizona rushed for 365 yards last week in a victory over
Northern Arizona and in a great departure from past seasons, the Wildcats can be found near
the top of the national rushing rankings with over 600 yards in two games. Iowa has had nonconference
success in recent years as one of the few successful bowl teams from the Big Ten
so the Hawkeyes will likely be well prepared for this game even with Penn State up next.
Arizona has a fairly inexperienced team and this will be the first road game this season, facing
long travel and a hostile environment. Arizona is 8-17 S/U in road games under Coach Stoops
and Arizona will have to get it done through the air against Iowa, something they have not
proven capable of so far in the young season. IOWA BY 14
AKRON (-4) Indiana 2:30 PM
The Zips got a big win last week to gain some confidence for this match-up and Indiana will
hope to dodge another MAC power after a narrow escape last week. Indiana is 2-0 but both
games have been serious battles despite fairly weak competition. Akron is a veteran team on
offense and many favor the Zips as the top team in the MAC East. Indiana has been a terrible
road team in recent years and the Zips should get great support in the second game of the
new stadium on campus. This is the first time Akron has hosted a Big Ten opponent so this is
a huge game that the program has been gearing up for. Indiana has proven its mettle winning
two close games but pulling away on the road with the Big Ten season on deck makes for a
difficult situation even with line value on the Hoosiers side. AKRON BY 6
KANSAS (-20) Duke 11:00 AM
The Jayhawks have opened the season with two impressive wins including a solid road win at
UTEP last week. Kansas has allowed just 78 yards rushing in two games and Duke is not a
team likely to have a big day on the ground. Kansas has a veteran QB and the Jayhawks
have delivered a pronounced home field advantage 32-14 S/U since Coach Mangino took
over including a 17-7 ATS record as a home favorite in that span. Duke does not win games
often and they even more rarely win back-to-back games and this game can figure to be a
challenging second straight road game. Kansas has not been shy about pouring on the points
and they should do so as the late season schedule will be much tougher. Kansas QB Todd
Reesing has not yet put up huge numbers this season and this may be one of his best
opportunities in game that could start to get the Jayhawks a little attention. KANSAS BY 28
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (-15) Virginia 2:30 PM
Virginia was down 30-0 before scoring late last week to make the final score a bit more
respectable but the Cavaliers have fallen a long way to have lost badly as a double-digit
underdogs at home against a non-BCS conference team. The Virginia defense did a decent
job last week as it did in week 1 against William & Mary but the offense is often putting the
defense in very bad situations. Virginia started out last season poorly as well before making a
mid-season run so this is a team that should not be completely counted out just yet. Southern
Miss had a 2:1 yardage edge last week but the Eagles won by just seven in game that stayed
close in part due to special teams play. This will be a huge home game for Southern Miss and
they will be tough to slow down. SO MISS BY 17
OREGON (-4½) Utah 2:30 PM
The Chip Kelly era at Oregon has had a shaky start but securing a narrow win last week in a
wild game against Purdue was a big relief. Oregon was out-gained in that match-up and even
against a suspect Purdue defense the Duck offense rarely resembled the high-scoring unit of
recent seasons of the past. Utah is 2-0 to continue the longest winning streak in the nation but
that run appeared in jeopardy last week with a tie game in the fourth quarter before the Utes
pulled away. Utah has not been a great road favorite and this will be a second straight week
away from home. Utah had a huge yardage edge last week but so far through two games this
has been a turnover prone offense that has not scored with great efficiency. Utah has
dominated the Pac-10 at home but the Utes have just one road win against a Pac -10 team in
the past eight years and this could be a tough spot for the Utes. Oregon has displayed some
problems but this will be a favorable price on team that has been very strong at home in
recent seasons and still appears to have the tools to be one of the better teams out west
despite a rocky start to the year. OREGON BY 7
Usc (-21) WASHINGTON 2:30 PM
This would be a monumental upset considering Washington’s record last year but the Huskies
snapped the winless streak last week and showed against LSU in the opener that they can
compete with top notch talent. USC is in a tough spot facing a second straight road game with
long travel and coming off the great comeback win in the biggest game on the schedule. This
certainly qualifies as a letdown spot. USC has shown some weaknesses and the Trojans are
sure to be heavy road favorites in this game, actually going just 1-5 ATS in the past six
chances in that role. USC won 56-0 as a 45-point favorite last season so this will still be a
steep line but USC is still playing a freshmen QB and a very young defense. Washington did
allow a ton of yardage against Idaho last week so there are still some serious concerns for the
Huskies but the new coach in Seattle is former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian so
there will be a lot of familiarity with the Trojans. Last season’s game between these teams
came immediately after Willinghams’s firing announcement so it was a very flat effort and this
should be a motivated Washington team that could be a dangerous underdog. USC BY 14
UCLA (-10½) Kansas State 9:15 PM
A 48-yard field goal in the final minute lost last week’s game for Kansas State and despite a
soft opening schedule the Wildcats have not had a strong start in Coach Snyder’s return.
UCLA enters this game off a huge win at Tennessee so this will not be an ideal situation for
the Bruins. UCLA took advantages of turnovers last week as the offense only had 186 yards
and twelve first downs. UCLA did not exactly light it up offense in their opener either but at 2-0
and a favorable schedule ahead the Bruins figure to be serious players in the Pac -10 and
even national stage. UCLA is 14-5 in the last 19 games as home favorites and the K-State
offense should be forced into some bad situations while UCLA may create more turnovers in
this match-up as the Wildcats face long travel and a second-straight road game. UCLA BY 17
VIRGINIA TECH (-3½) Nebraska 2:30 PM
In what might have been a treacherous scheduling spot, Virginia Tech cruised with over 600
yards last week and a very strong defensive effort. Nebraska has faced off with two Sun Belt
teams and the final margins have been significant. Nebraska has allowed a decent amount of
yardage however so there will be questions regarding stopping a Hokies running game that
rushed for 444 yards last week. Last year Virginia Tech won in Lincoln 35-30 but Nebraska
was able to move the ball in a noble effort against a very strong defense. QB Zac Lee has little
experience but he had a near flawless game last week although this will be a huge increase in
the challenge level playing on the road against the Hokies. Virginia Tech was not impressive
defensively against Alabama in the opener however so there may be some opportunities for
Nebraska in this match-up though the Hokies are probably too tough. VIRGINIA TECH BY 7
NOTRE DAME (-11½) Michigan State 2:30 PM
The Irish could not hold on against Michigan last week and there will be no time to dwell on
the loss with a talented Michigan State team coming to town. An upset loss by the Spartans
last week likely elevates the spread but this MSU team should not be discounted as they have
had great success in this series including winning easily the past two seasons. Michigan State
is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series and last week’s loss could possibly be attributed
to looking ahead to this game. Notre Dame’s lofty rankings and projections have mainly been
based on the experience and schedule but the defense clearly had problems last week,
allowing 430 yards. Central Michigan is a very good team, likely the best in the MAC and the
Spartans allowed big passing numbers in the game which could be problematic heading into a
match-up against another strong passing offense. The MSU passing game led by two
sophomore QBs has not heeded great results so far but WR Blair White has had a big year.
The Spartans should be stung after losing on an onside kick conversion but Notre Dame may
be even more deflated as they faced much higher expectations. MICHIGAN STATE BY 3
Ohio State (-20½) Toledo @Cleveland, Ohio 11:00 AM
The Rockets enter this game coming off a huge national TV win over a major conference foe.
Ohio State enters this game off a deflating national loss in a game they led nearly the entire
way against USC. Toledo has put up a ton of yardage against two BCS conference teams this
year so this could be a dangerous match-up for the Buckeyes. This is technically a home
game for Toledo but the Buckeyes should be well supported in this battle of Ohio teams
played in Cleveland. Ohio State is also just 2-6 in the last eight games as double-digit
favorites and in playing Navy and USC the first two weeks Ohio State had to adjust for vastly
different offenses and an up-tempo Rockets squad that has had a lot of success could be in
favorable position. Ohio State’s defense has been far from dominant and the offense still
misses too many opportunities while lacking the running game that could help them pull away
and slow down this type of match-up. The Rockets are a veteran team, particularly on offense
and with over 1,100 yards in two games new coach Tim Beckman has the team moving the
ball. This will be a far bigger game for Toledo and a clear letdown spot for Ohio State who
also will have a key Big Ten opener against Illinois to look ahead to next week. Despite losing
the game, Ohio State gained some respect last week with a strong effort against USC and
could be overvalued in this game. OHIO STATE BY 17
AUBURN (-6½) West Virginia 6:45 PM
These teams are recent powerhouses that are going through transitions and despite some
gloomy projections for both squads the 2-0 starts have been encouraging. Both teams were
more dominant last week than the final score indicated and this game will propel the winner
upward in the national rankings and in a much more relevant place on the college football
landscape. Last season West Virginia won with relative ease with a dominant second half and
31 unanswered points in Morgantown. It was a lost season for Auburn however as the team
had been upset in back-to-back SEC games entering the marquee non-conference match-up.
The Mountaineers also had a much more veteran squad and faced the game in a more
favorable scheduling situation. West Virginia is passing the ball much more than in past years
while Auburn appears to be focused on running the ball, posting 390 yards on the ground last
week while putting up 301 in the first week. The Tigers have played a tough early season
schedule so they have had the production against decent teams. Coach Chizik fell under a lot
of heat as a questionable hire but so far things have looked promising. Auburn has enough
veterans to make this a smooth transition year and Coach Stewart has still not fully instilled
confidence since taking over at West Virginia. AUBURN BY 14
FLORIDA (-28½) Tennessee 2:30 PM
Coach Kiffin made headlines this winter calling out Urban Meyer for ‘cheating’ and providing
Florida with bulletin board material is probably not a smart move. Florida dismantled a decent
Troy squad last week and the Gators are heavy favorites in this match-up. Last season Florida
won 30-6 in Knoxville as just a 7½ point favorite Tennessee appeared to be in a favorable
situation last week but turnovers cost the Volunteers dearly inc luding four consecutive
possessions with a turnover. QB play will obviously be a huge advantage for Florida in this
match-up although Tennessee does possess an excellent secondary led by CB Eric Berry.
Florida has owned this series in recent years covering in eleven of the past 15 meetings and
despite being a heavy chalk in most situations the Gators have posted strong recent numbers
as home favorites. Florida has been waiting all summer for this game and despite a big spot
this should be a big win and cover for the #1 team in the nation. FLORIDA BY 38
Smu (-7) WASHINGTON STATE 4:00 PM
Seven turnovers plagued the Cougars last week and another long year is already well under
way for Washington State. The final score makes last week’s 38-20 loss appear to be a
competitive affair but Hawaii led 35-0 five minutes into the second quarter before Washington
State started to get some things together. Washington State allowed 626 yards last week
following a sound beating in the opener at home against Stanford. As a double-digit underdog
last week SMU surprised UAB and after one win in 2008, SMU has two in two games this year
with a great opportunity to move to 3-0 this week. SMU led 28-7 last week before a frantic
finish and the June Jones passing game appears to be finding some traction with big numbers
last week. The Mustangs have turned it over six times this season but they have benefited
from eleven turnovers by their two opponents and with the WSU offense more opportunities
are likely to be there. Though Washington State is far from a quality representative it will still
be a big deal for SMU to face off with a major conference opponent and most may not be
aware as to how much this team has improved from last year. SMU BY 14
San Diego State (-3½) IDAHO 4:00 PM
Last season one of the few bright spots for San Diego State came in a 45-17 win over Idaho.
The Vandals will host this time around this could be a difficult road trip for the Aztecs. San
Diego State is going through a transition after years of disappointment and the team held in
there against UCLA in the opening week and picked up an unspectacular but important win
over Southern Utah last week. Idaho won in the opener against New Mexico State and last
week played commendably at Washington. The Vandals had 20 first downs and actually outgained
the Huskies despite a 19-point loss that narrowly made Idaho 2-0 ATS on the year.
Idaho ultimately had to settle for field goals and the defense caved in key spots against a
faster and bigger team. Idaho features a veteran offense and with two teams that have really
struggled ATS recently the Vandals might have an opportunity for an upset. IDAHO BY 4
Nevada (-3) COLORADO STATE 4:00 PM
After what looked like a big win over Colorado in the opening week the Rams nearly lost to
FCS Weber State last week. Being a bit flat for that game is understandable but the win over
Colorado may not have been as impressive as it first looked. Weber State had 25 first downs
to just 12 for CSU as the Rams were out-gained and surrendered a lead before a fourth
quarter score pulled out a one-point home win. Colorado State failed to convert a third down in
the game but the narrow win could serve as a wake-up call for a young team. Nevada was a
trendy upset pick in the opening week against Notre Dame but the Wolf Pack could not find
the end zone. Nevada’s offense has had two weeks to prepare for this game after the poor
opening result. Nevada typically ends up with big number statistics at the end of the year but
much of that production comes against a bottom-heavy WAC. Colorado State has a great
record at home including 6-0 ATS in the last six lined home games and the Rams should be
given a mulligan for last week’s flat effort. COLORADO STATE BY 10
Bowling Green (-3) MARSHALL 6:00 PM
The Thundering Herd never came close last week against Virginia Tech as the Hokies
showed no ill-effects from the big game loss in week one. Marshall has a veteran team on
both sides of the ball but so far the results have been poor with that blowout loss and a very
narrow FCS win. Marshall has been a terrible favorite in recent history with a 5-13-1 ATS
record in the last 19 attempts. Bowling Green is supposedly rebuilding with few starters
returning and a new coach but so far the results have been impressive. The Falcons crushed
Troy despite falling behind early in the opening week and last week Bowling Green was on the
other end, getting a big lead against Missouri before eventually falling. Amazingly Bowling
Green has covered in eleven consecutive road games and this is a Falcons team that has
over performed expectations so far this season. Two games does not make a season but so
far Bowling Green has looked like the much better team and Marshall looks to be in for a long
season. Marshall has been a tough home team in the past but Coach Clawson should have
the Falcons prepared for this situation. BOWLING GREEN BY 7
California (-13½) MINNESOTA 11:00 AM
The Gophers have not displayed the offensive production that many expected but Minnesota
is 2-0, pulling out two close wins after being a team that often squandered opportunities in big
spots in past seasons. The opening of the new stadium in Minneapolis met great reviews and
should be a great atmosphere for a serious challenge for the Gophers with California visiting.
Cal has dominated two home games so far this season and despite being a great team in
Coach Tedford’s tenure the road performances have not been at the same level. These teams
met in Berkeley in 2006 with Cal winning 42-17 so this will be an immense challenge for the
Gophers who have been fortunate to win in both games so far this season. The Bears are a
legitimate national title threat but this will be the key stretch in the schedule with a challenging
non-conference road game before the Pac-10 opener at Oregon next week, and then the
huge home game with USC. Both teams hav e veteran QBs and quality offensive targets but
California should have more big play potential against a Minnesota defense that has been
decent but still is a vulnerable unit. A letdown could occur for Minnesota after a huge win last
week in an electric home opener. CALIFORNIA BY 21
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-4) Buffalo 6:30 PM
The Bulls put up big numbers against Pittsburgh last week but surrendered even more.
Buffalo has re-tooled and through two games this looks like one of the most explosive teams
in the MAC and a team with a shot at another bowl appearance. Central Florida was one of
the lowest scoring and yardage producing teams in the nation last year. The Golden Knights
posted just 194 yards last week but managed to hang close for the cover against Southern
Miss despite just eleven first downs. In the opening week UCF barely got by Samford and
despite returning much of last year’s team there has still been few effective drives. Buffalo has
covered in each of the last nine road games and the Bulls appear to still be a dangerous team
despite seemingly overachieving last season. BUFFALO BY 7
OKLAHOMA STATE (-31½) Rice 6:00 PM
The Cowboys got the huge opening week win they needed to rise to the national stage but a
shocking letdown loss took place last week as Houston upset Oklahoma State. The Cowboys
fell behind early and then rallied but Houston took over in the fourth quarter, exposing many of
the same problems on defense that have kept the Cowboys from taking the next step. Rice
will be the unfortunate victim in the path this week assuming OSU does not feel the season is
lost based on one non-conference loss. OSU does not play a FBS team until October 10th
after this game so Rice will not be overlooked as Houston may have been. Rice won ten
games last season but at 0-2 this is a much different team and this will be a third straight road
game. Rice was hammered by Texas Tech last week and also lost badly to UAB in the
opening week as the defense remains problematic and the offense has not been able to
match the production that carried the team last season. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 37
OKLAHOMA (-15½) Tulsa 6:00 PM
Tulsa is a dangerous team that is off to a 2-0 start with two blowout road wins. This will be a
third straight road game but the travel is not significant and there will be no lack of focus
facing a highly regarded Oklahoma team. The season has taken on a different picture after
the opening loss and the injury to Sam Bradford but the Sooners dominated last week in a
shutout win and won in Tulsa 62-21 two years ago. Oklahoma is 19-7 the last 26 games as
double-digit favorites despite the loss to BYU and the Sooners know they need to deliver great
results to get back into the elite picture. Tulsa’s offense is likely to be shut down against a
strong Sooners defense with a chip on its shoulder and the Hurricane do not have the
defensive personnel to slow down OU. Although Tulsa has been an impressive through two
weeks this is not an ideal opportunity to take down a giant. OKLAHOMA BY 28
BAYLOR (-10½) Connecticut 4:00 PM
The Bears won a big opening week game and this will be another challenging non-conference
threat. Connecticut was dominant against the run last week in a strong effort against a
talented North Carolina team but the Huskies finished with a deflating loss at home in a game
they had to have. That game was at home and Connecticut has not played well in the road
underdog role, including several blowout losses. Baylor has yet to prove it can deliver with the
growing expectations but the Bears have actually fared well in the rare recent opportunities as
home favorites. Baylor was also off last week so a solid game plan should be in tact.
Connecticut won by just three points last season in Storrs so this will be a payback game for
the Bears. Connecticut will have a tough time rebounding from a brutally tough loss and the
Huskies also will be without starting QB Frazer for this game. BAYLOR BY 13
TEXAS A&M (-17) Utah State 6:00 PM
This battle of Aggies features two improved teams that both had early season off weeks last
week. Texas A&M had a blowout win in week one while Utah State earned a narrow cover
against Utah. Both teams have a lot of experience and A&M has been a strong early season
team in recent years despite often fading late. A&M showed great balance in week one but
they did catch a favorable match-up against a New Mexico team facing a complete overhaul.
Utah State was lucky to break a few plays to stay close in the opener and there are likely not
enough playmakers to keep this a competitive game. Things should get better for Utah State
in the WAC season but this will be another tough game. TEXAS A&M BY 24
KENTUCKY (-11) Louisville 11:00 AM
This rivalry was a pretty big deal a few years ago but both teams are expected to be taking a
step back this season. Louisville is in a critical year for Coach Kragthorpe and it is hard to
gauge the Cardinals on one successful but underwhelming win over FCS Indiana State.
Defensively Louisville played well but the problems of the past may still be present against
better competition. Kentucky also had a big opening win that didn’t seem as dominant as the
42-0 final suggests. Kentucky won 27-2 last season so this will be a motivated Louisville team
though this has been an awful ATS team the past two years. Kentucky has covered in three of
the last four meetings and Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in the past five road games but the trends
may not hold up this year. Kentucky has been a surprise team the last few years but this is a
steep line in a big rivalry game. KENTUCKY BY 7
Iowa State (-2½) KENT STATE 6:00 PM
Turnovers killed any chance for the in-state upset last week for the Cyclones. Kent State beat
Iowa State in 2007 but the Cyclones got revenge last season winning 48-28 in Ames. Iowa
State has not won a road gam e since 2005, losing each of the last 17, so this will be a
challenging spot. Kent starting QB Giorgio Morgan had just 38 yards passing last week as the
Flashes were completely shut down by Boston College. Kent will have a rare opportunity to
host a major conference team but the Flashes have not had success playing at home, going
just 14-23 ATS under Coach Martin. Iowa State can not afford to lose this game but winning
on the road is a big step the Cyclones may not be ready to take. IOWA STATE BY 1
BYU (-7) Florida State 6:00 PM
Despite this big game on the horizon BYU showed no effects of stumbling in last week’s
letdown spot. The Cougars have not been a great performer as a non-conference favorite and
this will be a rare opportunity to face a non-western marquee opponent at home. This will also
be the first home game of the season for BYU, after going 18-0 S/U at home the past three
seasons. The Cougars have talent on offense but defense has carried the team so far this
season. Florida State lost a tough opening game against Miami, a game which they had a
great scoring opportunity that did not materialize late in the game. Last week the Seminoles
were on the ropes against Jacksonville State and former LSU QB Ryan Perrilloux, scoring
twice in the final 35 seconds to deliver a misleading ten-point win. The FSU pass defense has
been a terrible weakness so far this season and BYU has the tools to exploit that match-up.
Florida State is not often an underdog but they have done poorly in that role on the road and
BYU will again prove legit in a huge non-conference game. BYU BY 14
Georgia (PK) ARKANSAS 6:45 PM
While Georgia has endured fierce physical battles the opening two weeks Arkansas has
enjoyed a light early season with a blowout win over FCS Missouri State and an off-week last
week. Georgia held on for a key SEC win last week but the Bulldogs were significantly outgained
by South Carolina and the Bulldog offense created three more turnovers. Arkansas
has 18 starters back on a team that showed some promise late in the year in Coach Petrino’s
first season. Coach Richt has an incredible road record at Georgia, going 30-5 S/U but rarely
does a team face so many big games consecutively early in the year. Arkansas is on a 15-7
ATS run as a home underdogs and Georgia has shown too many early season mistakes to be
trusted in this match-up. The Razorbacks could be a serious surprise team this season and
this would be a great first step though there is little line value. ARKANSAS BY 7
Air Force (-17) NEW MEXICO 6:30 PM
The Falcons played well last week but could not come up with the spoiler win in Minnesota.
New Mexico is a team in a serious transition, which has been quite clear in the early going this
season. The Lobos have lost twice this season by lopsided margins, scoring a grand total of
16 points through two games. Air Force has covered in six of the last seven meetings between
these teams but won last season despite a major yardage disadvantage. Former New Mexico
Coach Long always did a great job containing the Air Force option attack but the Lobos have
instilled a whole new system and few players have significant real game experience. This will
be a second straight road game for Air Force but the Lobos have given no reason to consider
backing them and the Falcons should own the rushing edge. AIR FORCE BY 21
Utep (-13½) NEW MEXICO STATE 7:00 PM
The Miners have played the last two games at home in a season with fairly high expectations
and the results have not been pretty. A veteran offense has made many mistakes and the
defense has made few stops. This series has been inc redibly close the past three years with
New Mexico State winning the past two meetings. UTEP has been a terrible road team in the
recent years both S/U and ATS and after underperforming at home it is hard to expect great
things from the Miners in this match-up. This is a bigger rivalry than most realize in a battle of
nearby schools and the Aggies have shown a new commitment to running the ball this season
which should help the underdog. UTEP BY 4
TEXAS (-16½) Texas Tech 7:00 PM
This was one of the more memorable and important games in the Big 12 last season and
though many of the same key players are back in action for the Longhorns, Tech has had
great turnover. The Red Raiders had a big day last week with over 500 yards passing so the
offense can still be a serious threat. Texas struggled a bit in tough conditions at Wyoming but
eventually pulled through for a convincing win. This will be a key revenge game for Texas and
this will also be the first road game of the season for Texas Tech. Little has been proven for
the Red Raiders in a weak early season schedule and two years ago in Austin Texas won 59-
43. Texas has performed well in the home favorite role and this game has been the key focus
of the early season schedule. TEXAS BY 24
UNLV (-7) Hawaii 10:00 PM
The Runnin’ Rebels fell just short of a serious upset bid last week, losing on a last second
field goal. UNLV lost its starting QB in the game last week but back-up Mike Clausen
delivered two scoring drives in the 4th quarter to give UNLV a short-lived lead. In 2007 UNLV
lost 49-14 at home versus Hawaii but this should be a much different game as long as the
Rebels do not letdown after last week’s marquee home game. Hawaii beat a Pac -10 team last
week but Washington State gave the Warriors a lot of early opportunities. Hawaii greatly
struggled in the opening game and the defense certainly has some holes. UNLV BY 14
STANFORD (-18) San Jose State 8:00 PM
The Cardinal appeared on its way to a 2-0 start last week but could not hold on. This will be a
critical game for two teams with bowl hopes as Stanford can not afford another nonconference
loss. San Jose State is 0-2 but they have faced two teams that combined for one
loss last season and the Spartans held their own against Utah last week. Stanford has
dominated this series but last season was a very close game with the Cardinal pulling away
late to win by 13. Stanford is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games as home favorites and this is the
first home game of the season for the Cardinal. Last year Stanford’s only home loss was
against USC in a competitive game so this has become a tougher venue. STANFORD BY 21
OREGON STATE (-1½) Cincinnati 5:45 PM
The Bearcats were one of the great surprise stories last season and it has been an impressive
showing again this season, scoring 117 points in two games. The Cincinnati offense
dominated Rutgers in the opening week and there will be a lot of talent at the WR position in
this game. QB Canfield has stepped in admirably for Oregon State as the Beavers needed a
late score to avoid an upset last week. Two years ago Oregon State won 34-3 in this series
aided by turnovers. The Beavers own an impressive home field but there are significant
questions on defense for this team. Coach Kelly has a great track record and Cincinnati is 11-
1-1 ATS in the last 13 games as underdogs. CINCINNATI BY 4
RUTGERS (-15) Florida International 4:00 PM
After an ugly opening performance Rutgers has already made a QB change and freshmen
Tom Savage was efficient last week although the running game paved the way. FIU earned a
cover as a big underdog at Alabama last week and the Panthers have a veteran group that
avoided big mistakes in last week’s game despite being overmatched. Rutgers has a solid
recent history as a large favorite but the Knights also were poor early season performers last
season and looking ahead to a big non-conference game next week is a possibility. Panthers
coach Cristobal worked under Coach Schiano so this will be a big game for the veteran FIU
team that went 8-4 ATS last season. RUTGERS BY 14
ALABAMA (NL) North Texas 1:00 PM
North Texas QB Riley Dodge left last week’s game with an injury and the Mean Green
suffered a narrow loss despite out-gaining Ohio. North Texas is a greatly improved team this
year and the biggest difference has been highly visible on defense with two solid efforts this
season. Alabama will be a much tougher challenge but the Crimson Tide has been a lousy
ATS team as a home favorite. This could also be a difficult game with the SEC opener up next
and in 2007 the Tide lost S/U to a Sun Belt team. North Texas has not performed well as a
huge underdog in recent years but the numbers from the past two years should be ignored as
this is a vastly improved squad. ALABAMA BY 27
MARYLAND (-6½) Middle Tennessee State 2:20 PM
The Blue Raiders did not hold up against the ACC’s Clemson in the opening week but last
week a big home win over Memphis provided a big score. That was a key game for MTSU
with a rare big-time home opponent and there could be a letdown factor even though this is
another big match-up. Maryland lost in Murfreesboro last season and it has not been an
encouraging start for the Terrapins so far this year with a narrow escape against FCS James
Madison last week. James Madison is one of the elite FCS teams and the opening loss to Cal
was also a very tough match-up so Maryland is likely much better than the early numbers
indicate. With revenge in this game and catching MTSU off a big win this should be an
opportunity for a strong performance. MARYLAND BY 17
SOUTH CAROLINA (-21) Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
It has been a similar story for South Carolina in recent years as they often play well and
dominate the statistics in big games but find ways to fall short. South Carolina creamed
Georgia in the yardage last w eek but a lapse in the middle of the game set up a few scores
and forced the Gamecocks to make the comeback bid. The Gamecocks have been a tough
favorite and overlooking this game is not an option as every win is needed in a tough
schedule. Florida Atlantic has not performed well as a large underdog and though the Owls
have held up well against some mid-level teams they have mainly been destroyed by SEC
competition. Although it was a tough loss, the offense was encouraging for SC last week while
the defense should still be an elite unit despite 41 points allowed. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 24
TROY (-7) Uab 2:30 PM
Troy was expected to be a potential ten-win team this season but a 0-2 start makes that a
difficult task. The Trojans are expected to be the top team in the Sun Belt but a tough opener
against Bowling Green and a non-competitive effort last week against Florida was not part of
the plan. UAB has won the last two meetings between these teams and the Blazers are
reeling after a narrow loss last week. After falling behind early, UAB made a valiant comeback
bid and the Blazers did win big in their opening game against Rice. This will be the home
opener for Troy and the Trojans have excelled in those situations. Look for an impressive
effort from the Troy squad that was expected to show up this season, as the season is far
from lost for a team that still should end up in the postseason. TROY BY 14
LSU (-26) Louisiana 6:00 PM
The Ragin’ Cajuns scored a serious upset last week knocking off Kansas State at home and
ULL will face its first road game of the season in a very hostile environment. The Cajuns could
be a threat as a big underdog as they have an effective ground game and the LSU defense
has been less than dominant so far this season. In ’06 LSU won 45-3 in this match-up but this
could be a tricky game sandwiched in between SEC affairs. LSU has not looked as strong as
some of the other highly ranked teams but the Tigers have played two BCS conference teams
and this should be a much more favorable personnel match-up. The Tigers are just 1-9-1 ATS
in the past eleven games as home favorites however and the offense has not been that
productive so far this season. Louisiana has to letdown a bit after such a big win for the
program and the Cajuns will be a bit in awe taking on the state’s top program. LSU BY 31
ARIZONA STATE (-18) UL-Monroe 9:00 PM
The Sun Devils delivered a dominant defensive performance in the opening week and there
will be no looking ahead to Georgia coming off a bye week and after ASU was upset in that
situation last season. Arizona State has been a very solid performer in the home favorite role
and UL-Monroe will be in for a much tougher match-up this week after w inning 58-0 last week
and posting nearly 600 yards of offense. Monroe faces a key conference game next week and
the Warhawks will be better served conserving for that game. ULM did score 20 points and
post nearly 300 yards of offense against Texas in the opening week so there is some potential
on this team. ASU was a huge disappointment last season but the Sun Devils may be capable
of surprising with an impressive follow -up year as Coach Erickson has a very strong track
record wherever he has been except in the NFL. ARIZONA STATE BY 28
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 TENNESSEE (-7) over Houston
RATING 4 CAROLINA (+6½) over Atlanta
RATING 3 SAN FRANCISCO (+1) over Seattle
RATING 2 DENVER (-3) over Cleveland
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (-3½) over Arizona
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and all lines are obviously subject to change
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2009
KANSAS CITY (NL) Oakland 12:00 PM
Depending on how Oakland fares Monday night the Chiefs could actually be a decent-sized
favorite in this match-up given a historical home field edge, an encouraging week one
performance, and the general perception of ineptitude that plagues the Raiders. Oakland has
a decent defense however and the Raiders won 23-8 in Kansas City last year. The Chiefs are
just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 home games and although QB Croyle looked capable and the
defense made some big plays, there was a huge yardage deficit last w eek . Oakland should
have a solid rushing edge in this match-up as well. OAKLAND BY 3
TENNESSEE (-7) Houston (40) 12:00 PM
In a terrific opening game the Titans failed with several opportunities to take the win and the
last team to lose in 2008 was the first to lose in 2009. It could be argued that no team looked
worse in week 1 than Houston, a team expected to post big numbers on offense and with
elevated expectations after back-to-back 8-8 campaigns. The running game was no where to
be found and the defense allowed a rookie QB in his debut game to have great success. The
Texans were out-rushed 190-38 last week, a bad sign when Tennessee just held the Super
Bowl champions to 36 rushing yards. Houston beat Tennessee 13-12 the last time these
teams met but the game was of less consequence to the Titans who were in firm playoff
position and it was Houston’s lone ATS win in the last six meetings. TITANS BY 14
New England (NL) NY JETS 12:00 PM
The Jets were a very tough team to run against last week but forcing New England to pass
may not be a viable plan of attack. The Patriots have a short week to build for this game which
could be problematic with a veteran squad but they also will face rookie QB Sanchez in a
pressure filled home debut. The Jets beat New England the last time these teams met and
though there have been many changes in New York this will be a key game for the Patriots
after failing to win the division last season. New York looked great in week one which might
actually create value on the consensus top team in the league. PATRIOTS BY 13
GREEN BAY (-9) Cincinnati (42) 12:00 PM
The Packers emerged victorious in a wild Sunday night game while the comeback drive for
the Bengals proved not enough as an amazing 87-yard reception stole the opener in
Cincinnati for the Broncos. Cincinnati played well on defense last week but the offense had far
too many mistakes and missed opportunities and now faces a secondary that made a ton of
big plays last week. The Packers offense did not live up to its billing last week and the recent
history in the favorite role is poor for Green Bay. The Bengals are expected to be greatly
improved and this will be the true test. PACKERS BY 6
Minnesota (-9½) DETROIT (46½) 12:00 PM
Matthew Stafford made some great throws in his debut but he also had three interceptions
and got caught up in an impossible battle in a shootout with the Saints. The Lions showed
some resolve and rallied to keep the game interesting but the result was familiar to many
games last season. Detroit played Minnesota tough both games last season but the Lions
have been a lousy ATS team at home. The Vikings did what they needed to do last week and
playing indoors in a familiar venue should be favorable for this offense. Minnesota did not
deliver much in the air last week but they may not need to very often. VIKINGS BY 16
PHILADELPHIA (NL) New Orleans 12:00 PM
The Eagles rolled to the biggest blowout in week 1 thanks to turnovers and big plays. The
Saints posted huge numbers last week as the offense rolled through the Lions. This will be a
much tougher match-up for the Saints but New Orleans could catch a huge break with QB
McNabb unlikely to play in this game. McNabb did not have a great game last week but he is
the leader on the Eagles and this could be a chance for the Saints to steal a win and move to
the top of the NFC. The Eagles are a tough home team but it will be hard for the offense to
keep up in a potential shootout with a back-up QB. SAINTS BY 7
ATLANTA (-6½) Carolina (43½) 12:00 PM
The Falcons seemingly impressed last week but the offense really had some issues including
virtually no production on the ground. The suspect Atlanta defense appeared vulnerable but
four turnovers proved the difference in an opening win. Turnovers were the story in Carolina
as well with another nightmare game from QB Delhomme. Another chance is in order and the
running game was having success before the big plays changed priorities. It is far too soon to
write-off the Panthers and Atlanta will be overvalued in this game. PANTHERS BY 3
WASHINGTON (-10) St. Louis (37) 12:00 PM
The Rams failed to score in week one despite creating three turnovers as a rare blowout loser
that had a significant turnover edge. That is not a good sign for the offense now facing what
should be one of the better defenses in the NFC. Washington scored late to narrow the
margin last week and the Redskins were never really in position to win. The Redskins didn’t
play poorly but the Giants were just a little better in every area and completely controlled the
time of possession. St. Louis clearly has problems but Washington is a tough team to trust in
a favored role and they have covered in just one of the past six at home. REDSKINS BY 4
JACKSONVILLE (-3½) Arizona (43) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars gave up a lot of yards last week but were tough against the run and held firm in
key spots. The offense could not do enough and a narrow loss in a big division game resulted.
The same fate met Arizona but the defending NFC champs were at home in that game and
now face cross country travel. In two east coast road games last season the Cardinals
allowed 24, 56, 27, 48, and 47 so this could be a problematic spot for the defense. Arizona
also appeared to be missing former OC Todd Haley as the heralded receiving corps made
little impact in the game until it was too late. The Jaguars need to take this game or else it will
be another long season. JAGUARS BY 10
Seattle (-1) SAN FRANCISCO (40½) 3:05 PM
Seattle looked more impressive last week but considering the venues and the opponents the
Niners got the much bigger division win. San Francisco has turned things around under Coach
Singletary and this will be the key game to see if this is really a team that could challenge for
the playoffs. Seattle got away with very sloppy play early in the game as St. Louis had very
limited production on offense. The road team won both meetings last season but San
Francisco should have the superior running game and likely a less interception prone QB as
Shaun Hill has quietly been a classic game manager that all of sudden owns an 8-3 career
record. Hasselbeck appeared rusty last week and this will be a tougher game. 49ERS BY 7
BUFFALO (NL) Tampa Bay 3:05 PM
After an awful preseason it remains to be seen what the Bills accomplish Monday night. Too
much should not be read into that game as New England may be one of the top teams in the
league. Tampa Bay delivered a strong running game last week and Byron Leftwich was
capable at QB but the defense ultimately folded, particularly in the secondary. Historically the
Bills have held one of the tougher home field edges in the league while Tampa Bay has
struggled on the road in recent years. The Bucs are fortunate to play in Buffalo now rather
than after winter sets in but Tampa has won just seven road games in the past three seasons.
The ground results could prove decisive as the Bills are shorthanded without RB Lynch and
Tampa Bay might be a dog worth backing catching Buffalo off a short week. BILLS BY 3
DENVER (-3) Cleveland (39) 3:15 PM
After a bizarre and difficult off-season, no team needed an opening win more than Denver and
somehow the Broncos got it done. Denver did little right all day on offense but played
commendable defense and all that matters is the end results. Most project Denver as one of
the worst teams in the NFL but given the schedule ahead this is a team that has sleeper
potential. The defense looks vastly improved and QB Orton is a proven winner even if he
lacks eye-popping abilities or statistics. The Browns held tough for a while last week but
ultimately the same problems arouse, an inability to stop the run and QB mistakes. Cleveland
scored on special teams so the offense was not as productive as it appears. Denver did not
cover in a home game last season but the value may be back. BRONCOS BY 10
SAN DIEGO (NL) Baltimore 3:15 PM
The identity change for Baltimore continues as the Ravens posted 501 yards last week
including a 300 yard passing day from QB Flacco. Baltimore allowed 24 points but the
defense did hold firm, allowing just 29 rushing yards and 188 overall. The Ravens were lucky
to steal a narrow cover, but the yardage was a complete mismatch. San Diego faces a short
week but catches the Ravens facing very long travel. Baltimore won five road games last
season but the Ravens mainly failed against the elite teams last season and San Diego
figures to be in that mix. After an odd 2008 season San Diego should deliver dominant
performances at home and the Chargers should have an offense that can take advantage of
some of the new found weaknesses on the Baltimore defense. CHARGERS BY 9
Pittsburgh (-3) CHICAGO (37½) 3:15 PM
On and off the field Jay Cutler is infinitely more interesting than any Bears QB since Jim
McMahon but whether he can win remains in doubt. Cutler looked awful at times last week
and the four interceptions will stand out but he also made some great throws and his receivers
missed some opportunities. Pittsburgh won the opener but easily could have lost as they were
mostly out-played against Tennessee. The Bears defense may not be at that level but
Chicago caused a lot of problems for a Packers offense that is expected to post huge
numbers this season. An injury to Brian Urlacher looms large but the Steelers have lost Troy
Polamalu and Cutler may find some space to throw in. A few botched plays and a lack of
focus on rushing the ball likely cost the Bears the win last week and Chicago could be a
dangerous home dog as Pittsburgh has not had road favorite success. BEARS BY 3
DALLAS (-3) NY Giants (44) 7:20 PM
The Cowboys did not look like a juggernaut last week but they were effective on offense and
made enough big plays to pull away in what was a close game early. The new stadium
opening will grab a lot of attention and historically the Giants have not had success in Dallas.
Surprisingly the Cowboys are 6-1 in the last seven games as favorites and New York’s
defense was not as dominant as might have been expected last week. Dallas won 20-8
against New York in a big spot last season at home and the running game was completely
shut down in that game. Dallas will be focusing on stopping the run after Tampa Bay had
success last week and the Cowboys are actually undervalued at this point. COWBOYS BY 7
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2009
Indianapolis (-3) MIAMI (42) 7:35 PM
Miami was a team that caught a ton of breaks last season in amazing turnaround season and
the payback started in a big way last week. In a game that was very even statistically the
Dolphins lost 19-7 due to four turnovers including a few in huge spots that took points off the
board and put them on the other side. The Miami defense was outstanding against the run last
week and the Colts will likely be forced to the air again this week. Indianapolis lost #2 WR
Gonzalez to injury and Indianapolis has covered in just thee of the last twelve meetings with
Miami. Indianapolis has been a strong Monday night team but this could be a problematic
match-up and Miami has a lot of potential on offense even if it was not realized last week.
Miami should be a home underdog that owns the ground game in this match-up, a favorable
edge in a primetime match-up. COLTS BY 2
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Stubborn Chalk: 0-2 favorites favored in every game
PLAY ON: Any 0-2 NCAA home favorite that has been
favored in each of the first two games of the season.
10-4, 71.4% since ’91
PLAY ON: Colorado
Tighten It: Teams playing as double-digit favorites are 9-1, 90%
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
On the Road Again: 2nd in row on road vs. foes off losses
PLAY ON: Any week 2 NFL road team that played on the
road in week 1 and faces a team that lost S/U in week 1.
32-17-2, 65.3% since ’80 (16-5-1, 76.1% since ’97)
PLAY ON: Minnesota Vikings
Tighten It: Teams playing as favorites are 12-5-1, 70.6%
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘OVER’ USC at Washington
Washington allowed significant yardage to Idaho last week and as
the defense has not been able to shut down opponents and there
have been big special team plays as well. Coach Sarkisian will know
how to attack his former team so the Huskies should have some
success against a USC defense that has allowed only 18 points in
two games, forcing an artificially low total. The USC defense will
face a stiff test in a supreme letdown situation in a second straight
road game which could lead to some missed assignments.
Washington posted big yardage against LSU and won’t be
intimidated in this match-up despite being winless last season.
NFL: ‘OVER’ New England at NY Jets
The last time these teams played there was 65 points scored. A lot
has changed and two different QBs will be in the match-up but Tom
Brady is a clear upgrade and Mark Sanchez showed a lot of promise
in week one. The Jets defense looked very sharp and a New
England’s defense likely will perform well against Buffalo which
could force a lower number on this game. The history in this series
is lower scoring but remember many of those games took place in
cold weather late season conditions.
2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through September 13)
Home teams are 40-40-1
Favorites are 41-44-1
Double-Digit Favorites are 27-25-1
Home Favorites are 27-29-1
Road Favorites are 11-13
NFL (through September 13)
Home teams are 5-8-1
Favorites are 8-5-1
Double-Digit Favorites are 2-0
Home Favorites are 5-5-1
Road Favorites are 3-0
TREND OF THE WEEK
Bowling Green has covered in eleven consecutive road games
Hello guys, there is no pdf for this, so here we go!!!
POWER PLAYS
NCAA
NO PLAY: MIAMI, FL 34 GEORGIA TECH 23
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOISE STATE 133 205 24 2.5 ✔ ✔
FRESNO STATE 182 190 22 3.5 –
Get Friday’s marquee winner on the Private Play Hotline after 3:00 pm ET on September
18th. Call 1-900-438-9467 and pay $15 or save by using your Northcoast Debit Card for $9.
NO PLAY: BOISE STATE 24 FRESNO STATE 22
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALL STATE 78 113 13 3.1 ✔
ARMY 253 98 17 2.5 –
PP leans with BSU +8 showing Army with a 4 pt win but also predicts Army will have a 253-78
yd rush edge. This is BSU QB Page’s fi rst road start and we disagree with PP here and like Army.
NO PLAY: ARMY 17 BALL STATE 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 128 135 21 2.6 –
PURDUE 167 285 33 2.5 –
PU has won 8 in a row SU vs the MAC but is just 3-5 ATS in that span. PP calls for a 12 pt win
by PU (line 12’) with a 452-263 yd edge, but we disagree with PP and like Purdue.
NO PLAY: PURDUE 33 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
EASTERN MICHIGAN 93 210 17 2.7 –
MICHIGAN 297 225 45 2.3 ✔
EM HC English faces his former tm as he was the DC under Carr and wasn’t retained when Rodriguez
was hired. PP calls for a 28 pt win (line 22’) by UM with a 522-303 yd edge and we agree.
4★ MICHIGAN 45 EASTERN MICHIGAN 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NAVY 205 78 18 3.2 –
PITTSBURGH 111 278 35 2.2 ✔
Pitt is just 3-8 ATS as a HF with 6 upset losses and Navy is 19-8 ATS as an AD. PP calls for Pitt
to win by 17 (line 7), but we’re not sold on Pitt yet and it’s tough to ignore Navy as a dog.
NO PLAY: PITTSBURGH 35 NAVY 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTHWESTERN 121 155 20 2.9 –
SYRACUSE 159 160 18 2.7 –
NW has dropped 4 in a row ATS when visiting a non-conf foe, but Syr is just 3-8 ATS as a HD.
PP says NW will win by 2 (line 4) but the ydg forecast says Syr has the edge (319-276).
NO PLAY: NORTHWESTERN 20 SYRACUSE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOSTON COLLEGE 102 133 20 3.4 –
CLEMSON 139 213 27 2.5 ✔
This matchup has been decided by a total of 13 pts in the last 4 years. PP calls for CU to win by
7 which is right at the line and shows the Tigers with a 352-235 yd edge. We like Clemson.
NO PLAY: CLEMSON 27 BOSTON COLLEGE 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEMPLE 4 143 3 3.6 –
PENN STATE 147 303 31 2.5 ✔
Paterno faces 5 of his former plyrs incl HC Golden. PSU has beaten TU the L3Y by a combined 123-3. PP
calls for a 28 pt win (line 30) with a 450-147 yd edge and PSU has a huge revenge gm with Iowa on deck.
NO PLAY: PENN STATE 31 TEMPLE 3
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
EAST CAROLINA 65 173 14 2.6 –
NORTH CAROLINA 111 233 27 3.5 –
PP says NC will win by 13 (line 6) with a 344-238 yd edge and we will have to take a closer look.
NO PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA 27 EAST CAROLINA 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIAMI, OH 121 225 14 2.1 –
WESTERN MICHIGAN 184 290 35 1.9 ✔
Miami hasn’t scored a pt yet TY and has allowed 90 pts combined in their 1st 2 gms. PP calls for
WM to win by 21 (line 17) with a 474-346 yd edge and we agree.
4★ WESTERN MICHIGAN 35 MIAMI, OH 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MISSISSIPPI STATE 118 125 15 3.2 ✔
VANDERBILT 242 170 28 2.2 –
LY MSU upset 13th ranked 5-0 Vandy which puts VU in a legitimate revenge situation. PP calls
for a 13 pt win (line 8) and gives VU a dominating 242-118 yd rush edge.
4★ VANDERBILT 28 MISSISSIPPI STATE 15
NOTE: Power Plays - PP
Welcome to this week’s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in
the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system
or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4★ Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week’s Power Plays Selections.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WYOMING 145 153 19 2.7 –
COLORADO 126 268 27 2.8 ✔ ✔
CU HC Hawkins is in a must-win situation off 2 losses to Colorado St & Toledo. PP calls for CU
to win by 8 (line 7) with a 394-298 yd edge, but we like Colorado.
NO PLAY: COLORADO 27 WYOMING 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA 145 150 11 3.4 –
IOWA 145 175 23 2.8 ✔
AZ HC Stoops is an Iowa alumnus. PP calls for Iowa to win by 12 (line 6), but AZ has started their season
with stronger performances (outgained 1st 2 opp by an avg of 504-204, Iowa 378-329) and we will pass.
NO PLAY: IOWA 23 ARIZONA 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
INDIANA 113 215 19 2.3 ✔
AKRON 152 280 30 2.2 –
PP calls for Akron to win by 11 w/a 432-328 yd edge and the Zips will be excited to host a BCS tm in their new stadium.
4★ AKRON 30 INDIANA 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
DUKE 82 173 18 2.6 –
KANSAS 199 338 38 2.2 ✔
KU is 11-4 ATS vs non-conf with their avg win by 38-14. PP calls for a 20 pt win by KU which is
right at the line with a 537-255 yd edge.
NO PLAY: KANSAS 38 DUKE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VIRGINIA 113 150 16 3.7 ✔
SOUTHERN MISS 222 260 31 1.7 –
UVA HC Groh is another coach on the hot seat and PP shows it won’t get any cooler TW. PP
says SM wins by 15 (line 14’) with a 482-263 yd edge.
NO PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS 31 VIRGINIA 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTAH 145 210 23 3.1 ✔
OREGON 180 230 31 2.5 –
Oregon faces another tough opp with Utah holding the nation’s longest winning streak (16 gms).
PP says UO will win by 8 (line 4’) with a 410-355 yd edge but the Ducks have Cal on deck.
NO PLAY: OREGON 31 UTAH 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USC 235 235 35 2.1 ✔
WASHINGTON 95 200 17 2.8 –
UW ended their 15 gm losing streak LW while USC is off a hard fought win over Ohio St so there
could be some letdown. PP calls for USC to win by 18 (line 22) and we like UW within 3 TDs.
4★ WASHINGTON (+ if 21 pts or more) 17 USC 35
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
KANSAS STATE 103 115 11 3.3 ✔
UCLA 147 225 29 2.7 –
PP says UCLA will win by 18 (line 10) with a 372-218 yd edge after their hard fought win at Tenn.
Unfortunately UCLA QB Prince (broken jaw) is out for this gm, and we will pass.
NO PLAY: UCLA 29 KANSAS STATE 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEBRASKA 122 210 25 2.8 –
VIRGINIA TECH 253 160 28 2.2 –
NU QB Lee makes his fi rst road start in a very hostile venue and PP shows the Hokies pulling
out a 3 pt win (line 3’) with a 413-332 yd edge.
NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 28 NEBRASKA 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MICHIGAN STATE 88 190 18 2.4 –
NOTRE DAME 152 335 33 1.9 ✔ ✔
The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s 23-7 win by MSU in East Lansing. PP says ND
will win by 15 (line 11) with a 487-278 yd edge and we agree.
4★ NOTRE DAME 33 MICHIGAN STATE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TOLEDO 94 230 19 3.0 –
OHIO STATE 231 220 38 2.2 ✔ ✔
Cleveland Brown Stadium. OSU is off a last minute loss to USC while Toledo is off a solid win over
Colorado. PP calls for OSU to win by 19 (line 21) with a 451-324 yd edge, but this is not a good situation.
NO PLAY: OHIO STATE 38 TOLEDO 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WEST VIRGINIA 148 150 18 2.5 –
AUBURN 192 225 28 2.9 ✔ ✔
WV QB Brown’s 1st road start and Aub is in a revenge situation after leading by 14 LY but then
allowing 31 unanswered pts in Morgantown. PP says Aub wins by 10 (line 6) and we agree.
4★ AUBURN 28 WEST VIRGINIA 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TENNESSEE 90 120 10 3.5 –
FLORIDA 250 230 42 2.2 ✔ ✔ ✔
UF HC Meyer and UT HC Kiffi n have already clashed in a war of words, but Meyer has the troops
to name the score here. PP says UF wins by 32 (line 27’) and the Gators should dominate.
4★ FLORIDA 42 TENNESSEE 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SMU 106 285 31 2.5 –
WASHINGTON STATE 199 230 24 4.0 ✔
SMU is 2-0 and WSU is 0-2 but huge difference in strength of opp. PP calls for SMU to win by 7
(line 4’) but this might be WSU’s best chance for a win left on their tough slate.
NO PLAY: SMU 31 WASHINGTON ST 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN DIEGO STATE 131 245 30 2.7 ✔
IDAHO 164 220 25 2.8 –
Idaho’s home opener and the Vandal fans have to be pleased with a 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) start. This
week PP is calling for the Aztecs to get their 1st non-conf road win since 2003.
2★ SAN DIEGO STATE 30 IDAHO 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEVADA 251 220 30 2.4 –
COLORADO STATE 84 275 23 2.9 ✔
Nevada needs to get that bad taste from their mouths after the shutout at ND. Col St struggled vs
1AA Weber St LW but is still 2-0. Kaepernick’s balanced attacked gives Nev a 471-359 yd edge.
4★ NEVADA 30 COLORADO STATE 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOWLING GREEN 130 238 25 2.4 –
MARSHALL 196 193 25 1.6 ✔ ✔
BG is off to a 2-0 ATS start far exceeding expectations in both games. Marshall is not as bad as
LW running up against an angry VT squad. The Herd is 8-2-1 ATS as a home dog.
3★ MARSHALL 25 (+) BOWLING GREEN 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CALIFORNIA 203 210 35 2.2 ✔ ✔
MINNESOTA 127 215 18 2.9 –
The yards are closer than expected but this Cal offense is loaded and is now facing a Gopher
squad off an emotional home opener win in their new stadium despite getting outFD’d 24-14.
3★ CALIFORNIA 35 MINNESOTA 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BUFFALO 70 208 19 2.4 –
UCF 141 158 25 2.4 ✔
PP doesn’t often project UCF to have a yardage edge but it does here with the Knights fi nishing with
a 299-278 yd edge. The projection is for Buffalo to be held to just 70 yds rush w/out inj RB Starks.
3★ UCF 25 BUFFALO 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
RICE 29 203 12 3.0 –
OKLAHOMA STATE 277 293 50 2.5 ✔
The Cowboys avg’d 56 ppg in their 1st 4 at home LY and now have scored a total of 59 pts in their
1st 2 this season. PP thinks they’ll get back on track with a 570-232 yd edge and a 38 pt mauling.
4★ OKLAHOMA STATE 50 RICE 12
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TULSA 64 213 20 3.5 –
OKLAHOMA 192 313 40 2.8 –
Looks can be deceiving as Tulsa is 2-0 SU/ATS but against weaker foes. While the inj to QB Bradford
may slow the offense the D will hold TU to 277 yds & under 21 pts for the 1st time in 30 games.
4★ OKLAHOMA 40 TULSA 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CONNECTICUT 128 120 14 3.6 –
BAYLOR 172 230 24 2.6 ✔ ✔
At a glance the game looks close but check out the yards. Baylor is projected with a 402-248 yd edge.
The Bears are playing with revenge from LY in Griffi ns 1st road start and Conn’s QB is out w/inj.
NO PLAY: BAYLOR 24 CONNECTICUT 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTAH STATE 157 188 21 2.5 ✔
TEXAS A&M 184 343 42 2.6 –
Both teams are off byes which should favor the more talented squad hungry to hit someone. A&M
is forecasted with a 527-345 yd edge and did outgain NMex 606-231 in their opener.
3★ TEXAS A&M 42 UTAH STATE 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISVILLE 140 178 18 3.0 –
KENTUCKY 146 268 32 3.0 –
Times have changed when UK is projected with 90 yds more passing than UL. This is only the
2nd time the Wildcats have been favored in this series since 2001.
3★ KENTUCKY 32 LOUISVILLE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IOWA STATE 161 230 24 3.4 ✔ ✔
KENT STATE 209 175 24 2.8 –
This looks to be a battle as PP is projecting a tie game. Iowa St is a rare road favorite and the
forecast is for the Cyclones to have a slight 391-384 yd edge but for KSU to stay inside the number.
3★ KENT STATE 24 IOWA STATE 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA STATE 85 170 17 2.9 ✔
BYU 105 385 31 3.0 –
It’s not surprising that PP is forecasting a BYU win, even by 14 pts. The ydg, however, caught my
eye, as the Cougars will defend their home turf and are projected to fi nish with a 490-255 yd edge.
4★ BYU 31 FLORIDA STATE 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
GEORGIA 143 205 30 2.7 ✔ ✔ ✔
ARKANSAS 92 300 28 2.3 –
While Georgia got the conf win LW, they were outgained by 119 yds vs SC. PP projects them to
get outgained again as it shows Arkansas fi nished with a 392-348 yd edge.
NO PLAY: GEORGIA 30 ARKANSAS 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AIR FORCE 310 123 33 1.7 –
NEW MEXICO 96 188 13 2.7 –
NM continues their scheme changes and it shows on the fi eld as they’ve been outscored 85-16 and outgained
1,095-402. You have to like AF off of a loss with the Lobos’ D now w/out their option stopping former HC Long.
3★ AIR FORCE 33 NEW MEXICO 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTEP 168 253 31 1.7 –
NEW MEXICO STATE 138 208 17 3.2 –
The Miners have been a disappointment failing to cover their 1st games by a combined 30 pts.
Because of the 2 poor games, PP only has UTEP fi nishing with a 421-346 yd edge.
NO PLAY: UTEP 31 NEW MEXICO STATE 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEXAS TECH -35 320 18 3.0 –
TEXAS 205 355 46 2.5 –
Everyone will have the revenge motive in this one but PP says UT will get it done on the fi eld. They
are forecasted to fi nish with a 560-285 yd edge. TT has been held under 21 pts once in 34 gms.
4★ TEXAS 46 TEXAS TECH 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HAWAII 85 295 22 2.9 –
UNLV 175 285 33 2.4 ✔
Hawaii gained 626 yds LW at WSU but this Rebel defense matches up much better. UNLV had
Oregon St on the ropes LW but gets the win here fi nishing with a 460-380 yd edge.
4★ UNLV 33 HAWAII 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN JOSE STATE 88 203 13 2.6 –
STANFORD 238 238 32 2.6 ✔ ✔
Stanford couldn’t fi nish off Wake & San Jose St missed their opportunities hosting Utah. This
week PP says Stanford should handle the Spartans and give the home opener crowd a solid win.
NO PLAY: STANFORD 32 SAN JOSE STATE 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 110 250 28 2.6 –
OREGON STATE 155 290 28 2.5 –
This game is why you buy PP. OSU struggled at UNLV and Cincy has beaten their 2 opponents by a combined
117-18. BUT check out the yards as the Beavers are forecasted to fi nish with a 445-360 yd edge.
NO PLAY: OREGON STATE 28 CINCINNATI 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FIU 90 268 21 2.8 ✔
RUTGERS 196 223 34 1.9 –
The numbers may be a bit skewed due to Rutgers’ opening wk loss. PP says RU will fi nish with just a 419-
358 yard edge. Remember Rutgers is at home for their 3rd straight while FIU is on it’s 2nd of B2B AG’s.
NO PLAY: RUTGERS 34 FIU 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTH TEXAS 23 170 10 3.7 –
ALABAMA 242 240 39 2.1 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
NT has played a pair of quality games but maybe without their talented young QB Dodge. Bama
held fellow SBC team FIU to 214 yds LW and does better here fi nishing with a 482-193 yd edge.
NO PLAY: ALABAMA 39 NORTH TEXAS 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 178 225 26 1.8 –
MARYLAND 162 210 28 2.4 ✔
Middle played a great game LW outgaining Memphis 436-219 but they also outgained Maryland
LY 402-357 in their upset win. PP is calling for them to win the yardage battle again 403-372.
NO PLAY: MARYLAND 28 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38 220 11 3.1 –
SOUTH CAROLINA 217 270 38 2.4 ✔
Coaches battle between future HOF’ers Spurrier & Schnellenberger. SC fi nishes with a 487-258
yd edge and a 27 pt win. SC held NCSt to 11 FD’s & Georgia to 16, in starting 2-0 ATS.
3★ SOUTH CAROLINA 38 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UAB 158 230 28 2.9 –
TROY 182 300 35 3.1 ✔ ✔ ✔
UAB got knocked off in a favorites role LW but they’re now back as an underdog. Troy has struggled
and PP may still have them rated fairly high but expect them to fall. We like UAB plus the points.
NO PLAY: TROY 35 UAB 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISIANA 90 115 9 3.4 –
LSU 250 260 39 2.2 ✔ ✔
ULL is off a BCS upset but will struggle against their in-state “big brother” PP is projecting a dominating
Tigers’ win as it has LSU fi nishing with a 510-205 yd edge. The line, however, is almost 4 TD’s.
NO PLAY: LSU 39 LOUISIANA 9
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ULM 98 120 15 2.8 –
ARIZONA STATE 157 210 31 2.7 –
Second trip in 3 weeks against a BCS team for ULM. While the 58-0 win vs a 1AA LW looks nice
on paper, PP is calling for ASU to fi nish with a 367-218 yd edge. ASU is at Georgia next week.
NO PLAY: ARIZONA STATE 31 ULM 15
NFL
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OAKLAND 127 210 21 3 #6
KANSAS CITY 118 205 23 1 #28
PP doesn’t have OAK’s MNF game vs SD factored in & is relying on preseason numbers. KC was
outFD’d 32-11 & outgained 501-188 LW vs BAL. 14 pts were off a blocked punt & a 70 yd int return.
While PP likes OAK who were in this same situation LY coming off a MNF game & facing KC, to keep
it close here the MNF results are needed to really make fi rm choice here.
NO PLAY: CHIEFS 23 RAIDERS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HOUSTON 57 218 16 2 #7
TENNESSEE 130 258 26 2 #10
HOU was throttled in all phases by a Jets team led by a rookie QB that played in the system & got
away with a lot of cross body/fi eld passes that are very dangerous. They now travel to TEN who has
3 extra days rest here. TEN took PIT to the wire LW & PP gives them a 113 yd edge here with a 10 pt
margin. We like TEN’s defense much more than HOU’s esp in the secondary & agree with PP here.
3★ TITANS 26 TEXANS 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW ENGLAND 104 243 33 2 #4
NY JETS 107 198 16 1 #13
The Jets are off one of the more surprising upsets of week 1 vs a HOU team that was underestimated
them. NE is off LW’s MNF game vs the Bills & PP is working with preseason numbers here. NE has had
its 1st road game occur at the Jets the L3Y winning each SU & ATS. The Jets win vs a Texans team
that is projected to be a playoff team will keep the players sharp here. Ryan’s challenge to Belichick
in the offseason brought an interesting facet to the rivalry but without a proper line this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: PATRIOTS 33 JETS 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 48 223 14 2 #27
GREEN BAY 97 230 23 1 #31
Palmer looked sluggish as he made his 1st start after almost a full year of inactivity here. CIN was very
lethargic overall & squeezed out what looked to be a go ahead score with :38 left. CIN was burned on
a defl ected pass which bounced up into a DEN WR’s hands for an 87 yd TD just 27 sec later for the
loss. GB was slow to start the CHI game but Rodgers had a great pass with 1:11 left on a play action
call. PP calls for a fairly even game here & there is no line due to SNF so No Play.
NO PLAY: PACKERS 23 BENGALS 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MINNESOTA 157 213 34 1 #22
DETROIT 38 228 13 1 #21
The Vikings dominated the 2H of the CLE game as they scored 24 unanswered points to put the game
away. Peterson had 180 yds (7.2) with 5 rushes of 12 or more yds. DET gave up 6 passing TD’s to Brees
LW but Favre is just 5-11 ATS in DET. PP however gives MIN a huge rushing edge (119 yds) & 21 pt
margin here & we aren’t overreacting to Stafford’s passing total vs a NO team that was uninterested.
4★VIKINGS 34 LIONS 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW ORLEANS 49 181 23 2 #17
PHILADELPHIA 107 225 31 0 #11
PP doesn’t take injuries into account & McNabb (ribs) could miss. The PHI defense mauled CAR LW with a 267-99
yd edge after the opening drive. PHI forced 7 TO’s, held CAR to negative yardage on 5 drives, & had 15 QB hits/
sacks. NO shredded a much lesser quality foe with DET LW with a 515-231 yd edge with 6 TD passes by Brees.
PP gives PHI a 332-230 yd edge & McNabb’s injury situation keeps this from being a stronger play.
2★ EAGLES 31 SAINTS 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CAROLINA 158 208 28 2 #23
ATLANTA 133 225 30 1 #12
CAR imploded LW thanks to 7 TO’s at home & Delhomme has 9 ints in his L51 pass att’s. ATL was
+4 in TO’s LW & were able to shut down the short to intermediate passing game vs MIA LW. Usually
the situations balance out the following week but ATL is at home with better depth offensively & on
special teams here. Delhomme isn’t as bad as his recent performances & PP likes CAR here in a
close game but we disagree here so No Play.
NO PLAY: FALCONS 30 PANTHERS 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ST LOUIS 60 180 24 2 #20
WASHINGTON 137 218 29 1 #26
This is a tough spot for STL here. After being shutout by SEA on the road they have to travel to the
other side of the country vs a WAS team that was dominated by the Giants LW. WAS 2 TD’s LW came
on a fake FG & a garbage time TD drive & were outgained 350-200 minus the late drive. WAS has a
huge defensive edge here & this is a very rare revenge match in the NFL as STL upset WAS at home
LY. PP gives WAS a 355-240 yd edge but not enough point difference so this is a NO Play.
NO PLAY: REDSKINS 29 RAMS 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA 45 270 24 1 #30
JACKSONVILLE 121 228 28 1 #15
The Jaguars usually matchup well vs the Colts early in the season & their defense was able to keep them
in the game. They do have a huge amount of work to do for the passing game (122 yds 50% LW) & will
have growing pains with 2 rookie OT’s. ARZ went 0-5 ATS on the East Coast LY & were very lethargic
vs SF at home. Despite the travel issues they get a good matchup with their WR’s vs a JAX secondary
that isn’t very good esp with a young DL up front. PP has this at the line though making it a No Play.
NO PLAY: JAGUARS 28 CARDINALS 24
PRO FOOTBALL SEPTEMBER 20th-21st, 2009
6
2009 NFL POWER RATINGS
These are current 2009 Power Rating grades for each team based on talent.
STREAKERS STREAKERS WILL BEGIN
AFTER 3 WEEKS OF PLAY
TEAM RTG
1 New England 107.1
2 Pittsburgh 104.8
3 NY Giants 104.4
4 Minnesota 104.3
5 San Diego 103.1
6 Dallas 101.9
7 Philadelphia 101.7
8 Tennessee 100.5
9 New Orleans 100.1
10 Carolina 99.5
11 Indianapolis 99.4
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SEATTLE 88 215 23 1 #18
SAN FRANCISCO 78 238 21 1 #3
SEA thumped a woeful STL team 28-0 LW & Hasselbeck had a decent game with 279 yds (69%)
with a 3-2 ratio. They now have to travel to a SF team that gained a lot of confi dence after knocking
off ARZ on the road. SF’s run game wasn’t especially effective (21 yds 0.8) which was a surprise
but they get a good matchup here. PP calls for an essentially even game here (13 yds diff) with SEA
pulling out a road upset but we disagree on that aspect so No Play.
NO PLAY: SEAHAWKS 23 49ers 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TAMPA BAY 114 200 12 2 #2
BUFFALO 98 265 31 1 #1
PP is working with BUF’s preseason #’s here but we need to see how the team fares on MNF with
the late change at OC. They have the talent edge at WR here but RB Lynch is suspended for another
2 games. TB wasn’t as close as the score indicates as they had a 72 yd drive in garbage time LW vs
DAL. We now have an inexperienced coaching staff with a weaker team travelling to a foe who could
be off a big MNF loss. We need to see how BUF’s offense looked vs NE so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: BILLS 31 BUCS 12
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CLEVELAND 126 188 18 2 #24
DENVER 147 218 23 1 #32
CLE played a perfect 1H vs MIN & went into the locker room with a 13-10 lead. They simply don’t
have the talent on the team to compete with a SB contender at this point but take a step down in
competition here. CIN’s defense held DEN to 10 1st Dns & 75 yds rushing (3.8) as Orton didn’t look
crisp with his fi nger injury. PP sides with DEN here with a 365-314 yd edge but it’s hard to side with
a team that is 3-17 ATS as a HF so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 23 BROWNS 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALTIMORE 83 218 21 1 #8
SAN DIEGO 51 228 23 2 #5
SD is off LW’s MNF game vs OAK & PP is utilizing their preseason info here. BAL had the KC game
in hand except for 2 mistakes which gave the Chiefs 14 easy points. BAL is 0-4 ATS in West Coast
games & this will be a great benchmark to see just how much Flacco has improved in the preseason.
With no MNF results or a line this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: CHARGERS 23 RAVENS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PITTSBURGH 60 203 20 2 #16
CHICAGO 48 250 21 3 #19
Not only did CHI lose to GB on SNF LW they will likely be without MLB Urlacher (disloc wrist) & WLB
Tinoisamoa (right knee) here. They now take on a rested PIT team that has the depth to make up
for the fact that SS Polamalu (MCL sprain) will miss 3-6 weeks. PP leans with the Bears here but
we disagree as PIT has a better defense than GB which held CHI to 86 yds rushing (2.8) & pulled
in 4 ints so No Play.
NO PLAY: BEARS 21 STEELERS 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NY GIANTS 97 185 16 1 #9
DALLAS 73 248 22 2 #14
The Cowboys offi cially open up their $1 billion stadium with a real game here. While DAL has a comfortable
win vs TB for momentum the Giants controlled most of the game vs a tougher foe with WAS.
DAL will have a great home edge here but the pressure is really on them here due to how they closed
out Texas Stadium. We remain undecided here as both teams have their strengths so No Play.
NO PLAY: COWBOYS 22 GIANTS 16
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21st
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
INDIANAPOLIS 66 233 21 2 #25
MIAMI 112 198 15 3 #29
Manning tied Johnny Unitas career record for wins (118) with a 14-12 win over the Jags LW. Manning
looked sharp vs the Jags with 301 yds (74%) with a 1-1 ratio. MIA will be very focused here after coming
within 3:22 of being shutout LW & will reexamine their playbook & pull out their best plays here.
NO PLAY: COLTS 21 DOLPHINS 15
POWER PLAYS
NCAA
NO PLAY: MIAMI, FL 34 GEORGIA TECH 23
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOISE STATE 133 205 24 2.5 ✔ ✔
FRESNO STATE 182 190 22 3.5 –
Get Friday’s marquee winner on the Private Play Hotline after 3:00 pm ET on September
18th. Call 1-900-438-9467 and pay $15 or save by using your Northcoast Debit Card for $9.
NO PLAY: BOISE STATE 24 FRESNO STATE 22
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALL STATE 78 113 13 3.1 ✔
ARMY 253 98 17 2.5 –
PP leans with BSU +8 showing Army with a 4 pt win but also predicts Army will have a 253-78
yd rush edge. This is BSU QB Page’s fi rst road start and we disagree with PP here and like Army.
NO PLAY: ARMY 17 BALL STATE 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 128 135 21 2.6 –
PURDUE 167 285 33 2.5 –
PU has won 8 in a row SU vs the MAC but is just 3-5 ATS in that span. PP calls for a 12 pt win
by PU (line 12’) with a 452-263 yd edge, but we disagree with PP and like Purdue.
NO PLAY: PURDUE 33 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
EASTERN MICHIGAN 93 210 17 2.7 –
MICHIGAN 297 225 45 2.3 ✔
EM HC English faces his former tm as he was the DC under Carr and wasn’t retained when Rodriguez
was hired. PP calls for a 28 pt win (line 22’) by UM with a 522-303 yd edge and we agree.
4★ MICHIGAN 45 EASTERN MICHIGAN 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NAVY 205 78 18 3.2 –
PITTSBURGH 111 278 35 2.2 ✔
Pitt is just 3-8 ATS as a HF with 6 upset losses and Navy is 19-8 ATS as an AD. PP calls for Pitt
to win by 17 (line 7), but we’re not sold on Pitt yet and it’s tough to ignore Navy as a dog.
NO PLAY: PITTSBURGH 35 NAVY 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTHWESTERN 121 155 20 2.9 –
SYRACUSE 159 160 18 2.7 –
NW has dropped 4 in a row ATS when visiting a non-conf foe, but Syr is just 3-8 ATS as a HD.
PP says NW will win by 2 (line 4) but the ydg forecast says Syr has the edge (319-276).
NO PLAY: NORTHWESTERN 20 SYRACUSE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOSTON COLLEGE 102 133 20 3.4 –
CLEMSON 139 213 27 2.5 ✔
This matchup has been decided by a total of 13 pts in the last 4 years. PP calls for CU to win by
7 which is right at the line and shows the Tigers with a 352-235 yd edge. We like Clemson.
NO PLAY: CLEMSON 27 BOSTON COLLEGE 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEMPLE 4 143 3 3.6 –
PENN STATE 147 303 31 2.5 ✔
Paterno faces 5 of his former plyrs incl HC Golden. PSU has beaten TU the L3Y by a combined 123-3. PP
calls for a 28 pt win (line 30) with a 450-147 yd edge and PSU has a huge revenge gm with Iowa on deck.
NO PLAY: PENN STATE 31 TEMPLE 3
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
EAST CAROLINA 65 173 14 2.6 –
NORTH CAROLINA 111 233 27 3.5 –
PP says NC will win by 13 (line 6) with a 344-238 yd edge and we will have to take a closer look.
NO PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA 27 EAST CAROLINA 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIAMI, OH 121 225 14 2.1 –
WESTERN MICHIGAN 184 290 35 1.9 ✔
Miami hasn’t scored a pt yet TY and has allowed 90 pts combined in their 1st 2 gms. PP calls for
WM to win by 21 (line 17) with a 474-346 yd edge and we agree.
4★ WESTERN MICHIGAN 35 MIAMI, OH 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MISSISSIPPI STATE 118 125 15 3.2 ✔
VANDERBILT 242 170 28 2.2 –
LY MSU upset 13th ranked 5-0 Vandy which puts VU in a legitimate revenge situation. PP calls
for a 13 pt win (line 8) and gives VU a dominating 242-118 yd rush edge.
4★ VANDERBILT 28 MISSISSIPPI STATE 15
NOTE: Power Plays - PP
Welcome to this week’s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in
the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system
or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4★ Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week’s Power Plays Selections.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WYOMING 145 153 19 2.7 –
COLORADO 126 268 27 2.8 ✔ ✔
CU HC Hawkins is in a must-win situation off 2 losses to Colorado St & Toledo. PP calls for CU
to win by 8 (line 7) with a 394-298 yd edge, but we like Colorado.
NO PLAY: COLORADO 27 WYOMING 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA 145 150 11 3.4 –
IOWA 145 175 23 2.8 ✔
AZ HC Stoops is an Iowa alumnus. PP calls for Iowa to win by 12 (line 6), but AZ has started their season
with stronger performances (outgained 1st 2 opp by an avg of 504-204, Iowa 378-329) and we will pass.
NO PLAY: IOWA 23 ARIZONA 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
INDIANA 113 215 19 2.3 ✔
AKRON 152 280 30 2.2 –
PP calls for Akron to win by 11 w/a 432-328 yd edge and the Zips will be excited to host a BCS tm in their new stadium.
4★ AKRON 30 INDIANA 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
DUKE 82 173 18 2.6 –
KANSAS 199 338 38 2.2 ✔
KU is 11-4 ATS vs non-conf with their avg win by 38-14. PP calls for a 20 pt win by KU which is
right at the line with a 537-255 yd edge.
NO PLAY: KANSAS 38 DUKE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VIRGINIA 113 150 16 3.7 ✔
SOUTHERN MISS 222 260 31 1.7 –
UVA HC Groh is another coach on the hot seat and PP shows it won’t get any cooler TW. PP
says SM wins by 15 (line 14’) with a 482-263 yd edge.
NO PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS 31 VIRGINIA 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTAH 145 210 23 3.1 ✔
OREGON 180 230 31 2.5 –
Oregon faces another tough opp with Utah holding the nation’s longest winning streak (16 gms).
PP says UO will win by 8 (line 4’) with a 410-355 yd edge but the Ducks have Cal on deck.
NO PLAY: OREGON 31 UTAH 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USC 235 235 35 2.1 ✔
WASHINGTON 95 200 17 2.8 –
UW ended their 15 gm losing streak LW while USC is off a hard fought win over Ohio St so there
could be some letdown. PP calls for USC to win by 18 (line 22) and we like UW within 3 TDs.
4★ WASHINGTON (+ if 21 pts or more) 17 USC 35
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
KANSAS STATE 103 115 11 3.3 ✔
UCLA 147 225 29 2.7 –
PP says UCLA will win by 18 (line 10) with a 372-218 yd edge after their hard fought win at Tenn.
Unfortunately UCLA QB Prince (broken jaw) is out for this gm, and we will pass.
NO PLAY: UCLA 29 KANSAS STATE 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEBRASKA 122 210 25 2.8 –
VIRGINIA TECH 253 160 28 2.2 –
NU QB Lee makes his fi rst road start in a very hostile venue and PP shows the Hokies pulling
out a 3 pt win (line 3’) with a 413-332 yd edge.
NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 28 NEBRASKA 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MICHIGAN STATE 88 190 18 2.4 –
NOTRE DAME 152 335 33 1.9 ✔ ✔
The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s 23-7 win by MSU in East Lansing. PP says ND
will win by 15 (line 11) with a 487-278 yd edge and we agree.
4★ NOTRE DAME 33 MICHIGAN STATE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TOLEDO 94 230 19 3.0 –
OHIO STATE 231 220 38 2.2 ✔ ✔
Cleveland Brown Stadium. OSU is off a last minute loss to USC while Toledo is off a solid win over
Colorado. PP calls for OSU to win by 19 (line 21) with a 451-324 yd edge, but this is not a good situation.
NO PLAY: OHIO STATE 38 TOLEDO 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WEST VIRGINIA 148 150 18 2.5 –
AUBURN 192 225 28 2.9 ✔ ✔
WV QB Brown’s 1st road start and Aub is in a revenge situation after leading by 14 LY but then
allowing 31 unanswered pts in Morgantown. PP says Aub wins by 10 (line 6) and we agree.
4★ AUBURN 28 WEST VIRGINIA 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TENNESSEE 90 120 10 3.5 –
FLORIDA 250 230 42 2.2 ✔ ✔ ✔
UF HC Meyer and UT HC Kiffi n have already clashed in a war of words, but Meyer has the troops
to name the score here. PP says UF wins by 32 (line 27’) and the Gators should dominate.
4★ FLORIDA 42 TENNESSEE 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SMU 106 285 31 2.5 –
WASHINGTON STATE 199 230 24 4.0 ✔
SMU is 2-0 and WSU is 0-2 but huge difference in strength of opp. PP calls for SMU to win by 7
(line 4’) but this might be WSU’s best chance for a win left on their tough slate.
NO PLAY: SMU 31 WASHINGTON ST 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN DIEGO STATE 131 245 30 2.7 ✔
IDAHO 164 220 25 2.8 –
Idaho’s home opener and the Vandal fans have to be pleased with a 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) start. This
week PP is calling for the Aztecs to get their 1st non-conf road win since 2003.
2★ SAN DIEGO STATE 30 IDAHO 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEVADA 251 220 30 2.4 –
COLORADO STATE 84 275 23 2.9 ✔
Nevada needs to get that bad taste from their mouths after the shutout at ND. Col St struggled vs
1AA Weber St LW but is still 2-0. Kaepernick’s balanced attacked gives Nev a 471-359 yd edge.
4★ NEVADA 30 COLORADO STATE 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOWLING GREEN 130 238 25 2.4 –
MARSHALL 196 193 25 1.6 ✔ ✔
BG is off to a 2-0 ATS start far exceeding expectations in both games. Marshall is not as bad as
LW running up against an angry VT squad. The Herd is 8-2-1 ATS as a home dog.
3★ MARSHALL 25 (+) BOWLING GREEN 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CALIFORNIA 203 210 35 2.2 ✔ ✔
MINNESOTA 127 215 18 2.9 –
The yards are closer than expected but this Cal offense is loaded and is now facing a Gopher
squad off an emotional home opener win in their new stadium despite getting outFD’d 24-14.
3★ CALIFORNIA 35 MINNESOTA 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BUFFALO 70 208 19 2.4 –
UCF 141 158 25 2.4 ✔
PP doesn’t often project UCF to have a yardage edge but it does here with the Knights fi nishing with
a 299-278 yd edge. The projection is for Buffalo to be held to just 70 yds rush w/out inj RB Starks.
3★ UCF 25 BUFFALO 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
RICE 29 203 12 3.0 –
OKLAHOMA STATE 277 293 50 2.5 ✔
The Cowboys avg’d 56 ppg in their 1st 4 at home LY and now have scored a total of 59 pts in their
1st 2 this season. PP thinks they’ll get back on track with a 570-232 yd edge and a 38 pt mauling.
4★ OKLAHOMA STATE 50 RICE 12
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TULSA 64 213 20 3.5 –
OKLAHOMA 192 313 40 2.8 –
Looks can be deceiving as Tulsa is 2-0 SU/ATS but against weaker foes. While the inj to QB Bradford
may slow the offense the D will hold TU to 277 yds & under 21 pts for the 1st time in 30 games.
4★ OKLAHOMA 40 TULSA 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CONNECTICUT 128 120 14 3.6 –
BAYLOR 172 230 24 2.6 ✔ ✔
At a glance the game looks close but check out the yards. Baylor is projected with a 402-248 yd edge.
The Bears are playing with revenge from LY in Griffi ns 1st road start and Conn’s QB is out w/inj.
NO PLAY: BAYLOR 24 CONNECTICUT 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTAH STATE 157 188 21 2.5 ✔
TEXAS A&M 184 343 42 2.6 –
Both teams are off byes which should favor the more talented squad hungry to hit someone. A&M
is forecasted with a 527-345 yd edge and did outgain NMex 606-231 in their opener.
3★ TEXAS A&M 42 UTAH STATE 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISVILLE 140 178 18 3.0 –
KENTUCKY 146 268 32 3.0 –
Times have changed when UK is projected with 90 yds more passing than UL. This is only the
2nd time the Wildcats have been favored in this series since 2001.
3★ KENTUCKY 32 LOUISVILLE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IOWA STATE 161 230 24 3.4 ✔ ✔
KENT STATE 209 175 24 2.8 –
This looks to be a battle as PP is projecting a tie game. Iowa St is a rare road favorite and the
forecast is for the Cyclones to have a slight 391-384 yd edge but for KSU to stay inside the number.
3★ KENT STATE 24 IOWA STATE 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA STATE 85 170 17 2.9 ✔
BYU 105 385 31 3.0 –
It’s not surprising that PP is forecasting a BYU win, even by 14 pts. The ydg, however, caught my
eye, as the Cougars will defend their home turf and are projected to fi nish with a 490-255 yd edge.
4★ BYU 31 FLORIDA STATE 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
GEORGIA 143 205 30 2.7 ✔ ✔ ✔
ARKANSAS 92 300 28 2.3 –
While Georgia got the conf win LW, they were outgained by 119 yds vs SC. PP projects them to
get outgained again as it shows Arkansas fi nished with a 392-348 yd edge.
NO PLAY: GEORGIA 30 ARKANSAS 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AIR FORCE 310 123 33 1.7 –
NEW MEXICO 96 188 13 2.7 –
NM continues their scheme changes and it shows on the fi eld as they’ve been outscored 85-16 and outgained
1,095-402. You have to like AF off of a loss with the Lobos’ D now w/out their option stopping former HC Long.
3★ AIR FORCE 33 NEW MEXICO 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTEP 168 253 31 1.7 –
NEW MEXICO STATE 138 208 17 3.2 –
The Miners have been a disappointment failing to cover their 1st games by a combined 30 pts.
Because of the 2 poor games, PP only has UTEP fi nishing with a 421-346 yd edge.
NO PLAY: UTEP 31 NEW MEXICO STATE 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEXAS TECH -35 320 18 3.0 –
TEXAS 205 355 46 2.5 –
Everyone will have the revenge motive in this one but PP says UT will get it done on the fi eld. They
are forecasted to fi nish with a 560-285 yd edge. TT has been held under 21 pts once in 34 gms.
4★ TEXAS 46 TEXAS TECH 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HAWAII 85 295 22 2.9 –
UNLV 175 285 33 2.4 ✔
Hawaii gained 626 yds LW at WSU but this Rebel defense matches up much better. UNLV had
Oregon St on the ropes LW but gets the win here fi nishing with a 460-380 yd edge.
4★ UNLV 33 HAWAII 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN JOSE STATE 88 203 13 2.6 –
STANFORD 238 238 32 2.6 ✔ ✔
Stanford couldn’t fi nish off Wake & San Jose St missed their opportunities hosting Utah. This
week PP says Stanford should handle the Spartans and give the home opener crowd a solid win.
NO PLAY: STANFORD 32 SAN JOSE STATE 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 110 250 28 2.6 –
OREGON STATE 155 290 28 2.5 –
This game is why you buy PP. OSU struggled at UNLV and Cincy has beaten their 2 opponents by a combined
117-18. BUT check out the yards as the Beavers are forecasted to fi nish with a 445-360 yd edge.
NO PLAY: OREGON STATE 28 CINCINNATI 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FIU 90 268 21 2.8 ✔
RUTGERS 196 223 34 1.9 –
The numbers may be a bit skewed due to Rutgers’ opening wk loss. PP says RU will fi nish with just a 419-
358 yard edge. Remember Rutgers is at home for their 3rd straight while FIU is on it’s 2nd of B2B AG’s.
NO PLAY: RUTGERS 34 FIU 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTH TEXAS 23 170 10 3.7 –
ALABAMA 242 240 39 2.1 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
NT has played a pair of quality games but maybe without their talented young QB Dodge. Bama
held fellow SBC team FIU to 214 yds LW and does better here fi nishing with a 482-193 yd edge.
NO PLAY: ALABAMA 39 NORTH TEXAS 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 178 225 26 1.8 –
MARYLAND 162 210 28 2.4 ✔
Middle played a great game LW outgaining Memphis 436-219 but they also outgained Maryland
LY 402-357 in their upset win. PP is calling for them to win the yardage battle again 403-372.
NO PLAY: MARYLAND 28 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38 220 11 3.1 –
SOUTH CAROLINA 217 270 38 2.4 ✔
Coaches battle between future HOF’ers Spurrier & Schnellenberger. SC fi nishes with a 487-258
yd edge and a 27 pt win. SC held NCSt to 11 FD’s & Georgia to 16, in starting 2-0 ATS.
3★ SOUTH CAROLINA 38 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UAB 158 230 28 2.9 –
TROY 182 300 35 3.1 ✔ ✔ ✔
UAB got knocked off in a favorites role LW but they’re now back as an underdog. Troy has struggled
and PP may still have them rated fairly high but expect them to fall. We like UAB plus the points.
NO PLAY: TROY 35 UAB 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISIANA 90 115 9 3.4 –
LSU 250 260 39 2.2 ✔ ✔
ULL is off a BCS upset but will struggle against their in-state “big brother” PP is projecting a dominating
Tigers’ win as it has LSU fi nishing with a 510-205 yd edge. The line, however, is almost 4 TD’s.
NO PLAY: LSU 39 LOUISIANA 9
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ULM 98 120 15 2.8 –
ARIZONA STATE 157 210 31 2.7 –
Second trip in 3 weeks against a BCS team for ULM. While the 58-0 win vs a 1AA LW looks nice
on paper, PP is calling for ASU to fi nish with a 367-218 yd edge. ASU is at Georgia next week.
NO PLAY: ARIZONA STATE 31 ULM 15
NFL
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OAKLAND 127 210 21 3 #6
KANSAS CITY 118 205 23 1 #28
PP doesn’t have OAK’s MNF game vs SD factored in & is relying on preseason numbers. KC was
outFD’d 32-11 & outgained 501-188 LW vs BAL. 14 pts were off a blocked punt & a 70 yd int return.
While PP likes OAK who were in this same situation LY coming off a MNF game & facing KC, to keep
it close here the MNF results are needed to really make fi rm choice here.
NO PLAY: CHIEFS 23 RAIDERS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HOUSTON 57 218 16 2 #7
TENNESSEE 130 258 26 2 #10
HOU was throttled in all phases by a Jets team led by a rookie QB that played in the system & got
away with a lot of cross body/fi eld passes that are very dangerous. They now travel to TEN who has
3 extra days rest here. TEN took PIT to the wire LW & PP gives them a 113 yd edge here with a 10 pt
margin. We like TEN’s defense much more than HOU’s esp in the secondary & agree with PP here.
3★ TITANS 26 TEXANS 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW ENGLAND 104 243 33 2 #4
NY JETS 107 198 16 1 #13
The Jets are off one of the more surprising upsets of week 1 vs a HOU team that was underestimated
them. NE is off LW’s MNF game vs the Bills & PP is working with preseason numbers here. NE has had
its 1st road game occur at the Jets the L3Y winning each SU & ATS. The Jets win vs a Texans team
that is projected to be a playoff team will keep the players sharp here. Ryan’s challenge to Belichick
in the offseason brought an interesting facet to the rivalry but without a proper line this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: PATRIOTS 33 JETS 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 48 223 14 2 #27
GREEN BAY 97 230 23 1 #31
Palmer looked sluggish as he made his 1st start after almost a full year of inactivity here. CIN was very
lethargic overall & squeezed out what looked to be a go ahead score with :38 left. CIN was burned on
a defl ected pass which bounced up into a DEN WR’s hands for an 87 yd TD just 27 sec later for the
loss. GB was slow to start the CHI game but Rodgers had a great pass with 1:11 left on a play action
call. PP calls for a fairly even game here & there is no line due to SNF so No Play.
NO PLAY: PACKERS 23 BENGALS 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MINNESOTA 157 213 34 1 #22
DETROIT 38 228 13 1 #21
The Vikings dominated the 2H of the CLE game as they scored 24 unanswered points to put the game
away. Peterson had 180 yds (7.2) with 5 rushes of 12 or more yds. DET gave up 6 passing TD’s to Brees
LW but Favre is just 5-11 ATS in DET. PP however gives MIN a huge rushing edge (119 yds) & 21 pt
margin here & we aren’t overreacting to Stafford’s passing total vs a NO team that was uninterested.
4★VIKINGS 34 LIONS 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW ORLEANS 49 181 23 2 #17
PHILADELPHIA 107 225 31 0 #11
PP doesn’t take injuries into account & McNabb (ribs) could miss. The PHI defense mauled CAR LW with a 267-99
yd edge after the opening drive. PHI forced 7 TO’s, held CAR to negative yardage on 5 drives, & had 15 QB hits/
sacks. NO shredded a much lesser quality foe with DET LW with a 515-231 yd edge with 6 TD passes by Brees.
PP gives PHI a 332-230 yd edge & McNabb’s injury situation keeps this from being a stronger play.
2★ EAGLES 31 SAINTS 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CAROLINA 158 208 28 2 #23
ATLANTA 133 225 30 1 #12
CAR imploded LW thanks to 7 TO’s at home & Delhomme has 9 ints in his L51 pass att’s. ATL was
+4 in TO’s LW & were able to shut down the short to intermediate passing game vs MIA LW. Usually
the situations balance out the following week but ATL is at home with better depth offensively & on
special teams here. Delhomme isn’t as bad as his recent performances & PP likes CAR here in a
close game but we disagree here so No Play.
NO PLAY: FALCONS 30 PANTHERS 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ST LOUIS 60 180 24 2 #20
WASHINGTON 137 218 29 1 #26
This is a tough spot for STL here. After being shutout by SEA on the road they have to travel to the
other side of the country vs a WAS team that was dominated by the Giants LW. WAS 2 TD’s LW came
on a fake FG & a garbage time TD drive & were outgained 350-200 minus the late drive. WAS has a
huge defensive edge here & this is a very rare revenge match in the NFL as STL upset WAS at home
LY. PP gives WAS a 355-240 yd edge but not enough point difference so this is a NO Play.
NO PLAY: REDSKINS 29 RAMS 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA 45 270 24 1 #30
JACKSONVILLE 121 228 28 1 #15
The Jaguars usually matchup well vs the Colts early in the season & their defense was able to keep them
in the game. They do have a huge amount of work to do for the passing game (122 yds 50% LW) & will
have growing pains with 2 rookie OT’s. ARZ went 0-5 ATS on the East Coast LY & were very lethargic
vs SF at home. Despite the travel issues they get a good matchup with their WR’s vs a JAX secondary
that isn’t very good esp with a young DL up front. PP has this at the line though making it a No Play.
NO PLAY: JAGUARS 28 CARDINALS 24
PRO FOOTBALL SEPTEMBER 20th-21st, 2009
6
2009 NFL POWER RATINGS
These are current 2009 Power Rating grades for each team based on talent.
STREAKERS STREAKERS WILL BEGIN
AFTER 3 WEEKS OF PLAY
TEAM RTG
1 New England 107.1
2 Pittsburgh 104.8
3 NY Giants 104.4
4 Minnesota 104.3
5 San Diego 103.1
6 Dallas 101.9
7 Philadelphia 101.7
8 Tennessee 100.5
9 New Orleans 100.1
10 Carolina 99.5
11 Indianapolis 99.4
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SEATTLE 88 215 23 1 #18
SAN FRANCISCO 78 238 21 1 #3
SEA thumped a woeful STL team 28-0 LW & Hasselbeck had a decent game with 279 yds (69%)
with a 3-2 ratio. They now have to travel to a SF team that gained a lot of confi dence after knocking
off ARZ on the road. SF’s run game wasn’t especially effective (21 yds 0.8) which was a surprise
but they get a good matchup here. PP calls for an essentially even game here (13 yds diff) with SEA
pulling out a road upset but we disagree on that aspect so No Play.
NO PLAY: SEAHAWKS 23 49ers 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TAMPA BAY 114 200 12 2 #2
BUFFALO 98 265 31 1 #1
PP is working with BUF’s preseason #’s here but we need to see how the team fares on MNF with
the late change at OC. They have the talent edge at WR here but RB Lynch is suspended for another
2 games. TB wasn’t as close as the score indicates as they had a 72 yd drive in garbage time LW vs
DAL. We now have an inexperienced coaching staff with a weaker team travelling to a foe who could
be off a big MNF loss. We need to see how BUF’s offense looked vs NE so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: BILLS 31 BUCS 12
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CLEVELAND 126 188 18 2 #24
DENVER 147 218 23 1 #32
CLE played a perfect 1H vs MIN & went into the locker room with a 13-10 lead. They simply don’t
have the talent on the team to compete with a SB contender at this point but take a step down in
competition here. CIN’s defense held DEN to 10 1st Dns & 75 yds rushing (3.8) as Orton didn’t look
crisp with his fi nger injury. PP sides with DEN here with a 365-314 yd edge but it’s hard to side with
a team that is 3-17 ATS as a HF so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 23 BROWNS 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALTIMORE 83 218 21 1 #8
SAN DIEGO 51 228 23 2 #5
SD is off LW’s MNF game vs OAK & PP is utilizing their preseason info here. BAL had the KC game
in hand except for 2 mistakes which gave the Chiefs 14 easy points. BAL is 0-4 ATS in West Coast
games & this will be a great benchmark to see just how much Flacco has improved in the preseason.
With no MNF results or a line this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: CHARGERS 23 RAVENS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PITTSBURGH 60 203 20 2 #16
CHICAGO 48 250 21 3 #19
Not only did CHI lose to GB on SNF LW they will likely be without MLB Urlacher (disloc wrist) & WLB
Tinoisamoa (right knee) here. They now take on a rested PIT team that has the depth to make up
for the fact that SS Polamalu (MCL sprain) will miss 3-6 weeks. PP leans with the Bears here but
we disagree as PIT has a better defense than GB which held CHI to 86 yds rushing (2.8) & pulled
in 4 ints so No Play.
NO PLAY: BEARS 21 STEELERS 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NY GIANTS 97 185 16 1 #9
DALLAS 73 248 22 2 #14
The Cowboys offi cially open up their $1 billion stadium with a real game here. While DAL has a comfortable
win vs TB for momentum the Giants controlled most of the game vs a tougher foe with WAS.
DAL will have a great home edge here but the pressure is really on them here due to how they closed
out Texas Stadium. We remain undecided here as both teams have their strengths so No Play.
NO PLAY: COWBOYS 22 GIANTS 16
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21st
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
INDIANAPOLIS 66 233 21 2 #25
MIAMI 112 198 15 3 #29
Manning tied Johnny Unitas career record for wins (118) with a 14-12 win over the Jags LW. Manning
looked sharp vs the Jags with 301 yds (74%) with a 1-1 ratio. MIA will be very focused here after coming
within 3:22 of being shutout LW & will reexamine their playbook & pull out their best plays here.
NO PLAY: COLTS 21 DOLPHINS 15
