News and Notes

[NewYorkKnight]

Defense is often undervalued by the public, as casual bettors tend to overlook teams following strong defensive showings in the tournament. That is a mistake.

Since 2005, teams that held their previous opponent to fewer than 60 points have gone 224-178-10 (55.7%) against the spread in their next game during March Madness.

With defense being undervalued, oddsmakers are less likely to inflate the lines, making it easier for defensive teams to cover.

Underdogs following a great defensive game are the best bets. Texas Tech limited Michigan State, which had averaged 77.6 points per game (48th in nation), to 51 points in their Final Four meeting.

169-123-6 ... +$3,708

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Texas Tech is 72-46-4 ATS in the 2nd half under Chris Beard

In Beard’s 11 NCAA Tournament games as a head coach, his teams are 10-1 against the second-half spread

While at Texas Tech, he is 9-0 against the second-half spread in the tournament

Beard is 33-8-1 against the second-half spread when facing a non-conference opponent over his career

24-4 against the second-half spread when facing those opponents on the road or on a neutral court

 

[NewYorkKnight]

CG Technology


56% tickets on Texas Tech
56% of money on Virginia

56% on Moneyline UVA

2x more tickets on Over 117.5 ... but money is even on it

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fan Duel Sportsbook

Virginia (-1.5)

Spread $$ ... 67% Tech

Spread Bet Count ... 55% Tech


ML $$ ... 54% Virginia

ML Bet Count ... 63% Tech

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Bet Labs

Small favorites (3 or fewer points) in the NCAA Tournament that receive less than 50% of bets have gone 47-32-4 (60%) ATS since 2005

Currently, 42% of spread tickets are on UVA -1.5 according to Sports Insights Contributing Books

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Draft Kings Sportsbook

Virginia (-2)

Spread: 77% $$ on Tech ... 64% Tix on Tech

ML: 59% $$ on Tech ... 67% Tix on Tech

Total (117.5) ... 80% $$ & 71% Tix on Over

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Caesars Palace Books

Texas Tech vs. Virginia (-1, 118)

Tickets are nearly 2-1 in favor of Texas Tech

Money wagered is about 1.25-1 on Tech

 

[NewYorkKnight]

William Hill

Texas Tech vs. Virginia (-1, 118)

53% of point-spread bets ... 56% of money wagered is on the Red Raiders

56% money on the Over

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Chris Beard teams have been an underdog 7 times in the NCAA Tournament. They have won 5 of them outright.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

US Bookmaking saw so much action on the underdog Red Raiders that it moved the line to pick 'em as of Monday afternoon, according to oddsmaker Robert Walker.

"Most players are on the dog early," he said. "There's been a lot of dog play in this tournament."

The split of money wagered on Texas Tech and Virginia at US Bookmaking is about 60/40, Walker estimated.

Not having Zion Williamson and Duke in the championship game may have decreased the handle by "10 or 20 percent, because everyone knows Duke," Walker said. But even though this might not be the sexiest matchup for television executives, it's still getting plenty of wagering acton with US Bookmaking -- even though having it at pick 'em is taking away some of the potential moneyline action.

"Very few people know Texas Tech, but it adds to what the tournament is," Walker said. "It's going to be a really fun game. I can see it being maybe two or three possessions one way or the other the entire game."

It's also expected to be an excellent defensive matchup, leading to the extremely low total (118.5 from US Bookmaking, the Westgate SuperBook at William Hill as of Monday afternoon). The first-half total is just 54.

As such, bettors are "taking a hard look at the OVER," Walker said. And, as a result, Texas Tech and the OVER are liabilities for the book.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Virginia still a 1-point favorite at 7 of 11 Vegas books with SuperBook & Wynn joining South Point & MGM at Virginia -1.5

Over/Under up to 118.5 at 9 books (CG Technology & Treasure Island at 118)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Greek Sportsbook

Sharp Action

Over (small)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Red Raiders are 15-6-1 ATS against squads with a .650 or higher winning percentage. They’re also 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog of three points or less.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

PointsBet Sportsbook (Jersey)

Even action on spread

65% of bets, 77% of the money is on the Over

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Sports Interaction


Money is coming in on Texas Tech and the Over

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Action Network's Contributing Books

Current betting trends:

56% of spread bets on Texas Tech (+1.5)
63% of O/U bets on over (118.5)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

William Hill ... Current update

A bettor put $275,000 on Virginia -1, to win $250,000

Line moved to -1.5

Book needs Tech in Nevada, Virginia at NJ books

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MGM Race & Sports

Took $60,000 on Texas Tech +1.5, and a different bettor put $50,000 on Texas Tech moneyline +105

Late Saturday, a bettor put $165,000 on Virginia -1

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MGM Race & Sports


63% of spread tix on Texas Tech

57% of spread money on Virginia

82% of ML tix on Texas Tech

72% of ML money on Texas Tech

58% of o/u tix on over

72% of o/u money on over

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Under 90 minutes til tip

Virginia is now 1.5-point favorite at 9 of 11 Vegas books with only Station Casinos & Treasure Island holding line at Virginia -1

Over/Under now up to 119 at 7 of 11 books (with 4 up to 119.5)