NEWPORT NFL SEASON ANALYSIS REPORT #1

[NEWPORT]

I know it is preseason, but I have noticed something in this week one preseason lines that I believe will be a trend throug the first 7 weeks of the NFL.

Linemakers are already showing their hands of a parity league. Look at these lines all between 2.5 and 3.5. I see this trend making its way into the regular season. Sure there will be some that do not fall into this category but I think this is a tough first seven weeks for the NFL linesmakers.

Gambling Tip : With this information I believe that focusing who will win the football game as your handicapping priority number 1. I think that picking the winner within this time frame will provide you success regardless of the spread. I am predicting that it takes the NFL lines makers longer than in normal NFL seasons to catch up with predictable lines. I can tell you one thing, at least this week. The linemakers are taking the week off, and letting the gambling community to pick the winners with everyhting being between 2-3. I know it is week one, but watch the trend

NEWPORT

 

[NEWPORT]

11 PRESEASON GAMES 10 OF THE 11 PICKING THE WINNER PROVIDED YOU THE COVER. 1 PUSH WITH SAN FRAN/OAK. BE PREPARED AS I HAVE ALREADY STATED THAT THIS TREND WILL LEAD INTO THE REGUALR SEASON. SPREAD WILL HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH YOUR GAMBLING DUE DILIGENCE ON SIDE SELECTIONS

NEWPORT

 

[bblight]

That's a good call Newport, but I'm not sure that I agree 100%.

I looked at the closing line for home teams in preseason week 1 over the last 5 years. I had

4 Home dogs of 4.0 or more
5 Home favs of 7 or more.
18 home favs of 4.0 through 6.5.
59 games from +3.5 through -3.5

Over the 86 game spread, 67 won or lost su and ats, while 19 had a different ats and su

After giving it some thought, I must agree the gap between the best and the worst isn't as great as it once was, but I attribute that to the focus on defense more than parity - there are still some very stupid coaches and front offices out there.

However, I am making a note to keep an eye on such a trend - just because I disagree doesn't make it wrong.

Good luck!

 

[NEWPORT]

BB

Thanks for the comments, and I probably need to do a better job explaining what I think will happen.

I agree with you whole heartedly that preseason is a NORM to have spreads in this range.

I guess what I am saying is that the beginning of season will spread into multiple weeks, where the

LINESMAKERS will be spreading their lines SIMULAR to the equilibrium of lines in the preseason.

SUMMARY: DO your due diligence on handicapping and focus on WHICH TEAM WILL WIN THE GAME, and you will HAVE your $$$$$. I see NFL spreads making the "public handicapper" so confused that the book will actually clean up on a lot of spread followers who are doing nothing but chasing a moving target. You pick the winner in this NFL, and you COVER. I will track it weekly on how many games where the spread was an impact.

Totals.....now that everyone needs to focus on spreads. ALWAYS

NEWPORT

 

[NEWPORT]

Again... the spead only impacted one game this week with the one push.

Also it already looks as if the books are going to have a great YEAR on the NFL PUBLIC SQUARES

Everyone was on Denver and GB this week. DOGS won outright on both.

 

[NEWPORT]

PICK THE WINNER AND YOU GET A COVER

Linesmakers still have no effect on this season

I know it is early, but there is going to be a lot of money lost this NFL season.

House is going to rake in the cash. Only the REAL good will survive

Have a GREAT WEEKEND NEWPORT

 

[NEWPORT]

Pick the WINNER and you COVER continued

Is everyone seeing that the lines mean ZERO thus far....and this will continue into the SEASON

NEWPORT....do not make this a losing NFL SEASON

 

[NEWPORT]

more analysis

2 things have happend in the last 5 years of the NFL MAJOR PARITY and I know this term is over used, but it is very true Paul Taggy has done what he set out to do.

The second thing that has happened is the addtonal playoff teams added and the breaks in the middle of the season. In the past if you were 1-4 to start the season, YOU WERE DONE

now all you have to be is 5-5 at week 10, and you can still make it to the Super BOWL...

Games do not mean as much as they do for Joe Public the Fan, or Joe Public the gambler. That is why I feel this year is the year of set up for the HOUSE YEAR. One week a team will look HORRIBLE...the next that same team will be a GIANT killer. And people will be flopping their money all over based on public perception. AND YOU WILL LOSE

 

[NEWPORT]

It is still Pick the WINNER and you COVER NFL SEASON

Only the Buffalo Tennesee game did a DOG cover in this PRESEASON and NOT win

and a Push in week ones Oakland SF game. Outside of that, the LINES have meant nothing

NEWPORT

 

[NEWPORT]

ONLY 2 DOGS HAVE COVERED THUS FAR IN PRE SEASON AND HAVE NOT WON THE GAME

BUFFALO WEEK 2

GREEN BAY WEEK 3

SO THEREFORE PICK THE WINNER AND YOU COVER IS STILL HUGELY IN EFFECT

AND LINESMAKERS ARE GOING TO FAKE YOU OUT OF YOUR $$$$$ IF YOU ARE NOT LOOKING AT "WHO WILL WIN THE GAME" IN THIS YEARS NFL SEASON

NEWPORT

 

[MOBboss]

newport
good luck this season.
MOBboss

 

[NEWPORT]

Thanks MBOSS you the same

NEWPORT

 

[NEWPORT]

ONE DOG "PUSHED TONIGHT" NEW ENGLAND...AND THAT WAS PROBABLY THE MOST ACCURATE SPREAD MADE BY A LINESMAKER THIS YEAR and AZ covered at home.

ONLY 3 GAMES THIS PRE-SEASON HAS THE SPREAD MADE A SHIT. 2 pushes as well

3 DOGS COVERING AND NOT WINNING.

MAKE SURE YOU ARE A GOOD HANDICAPPER AND LOOK AT THE EQUALITY OF THIS LEAGUE, AND THE LINEMAKERS SUCKING YOU INTO GIVING THEM MONEY

Are looking at a dog....well then you should look at them winning outright

Like a Favorite.......well then parlay it all over the place.

But the summary thus far.......

Is that your handicapping and due dilligence should be focusing on the winner of the game, and sometimes that is going to look like your stepping out on a limb, but it is the way to handicap the first half of this NFL season.

Oh and I know this is the pre-season.........you can remind me of that when the season is in full force

 

[tatehill2000]

NewPort!!!
You Freak,,, you giveing away all the Secrets! hahah if you let everyone know,,then there wont be any value for us to make OUR bets!,,, ahhahahhaha
Dam Im glad for foots to be here again,,,

YOu know the Pearls of Wisdom Flowing from your Yapper is solid,,,, I hope some take heed,,,, because its the Hardest Dam lesson to learn,,,

You are Right on the money with your comments about a team looking in shambles,,then the next week they llook like a Giant Killer!! Those are the BEST Games to slap like a 2 dollar Whore!!
hahahah
good luck,,,
Tater

 

[NEWPORT]

DOES ANYONE REMEMBER THIS THREAD PRIOR TO THE SEASON STARTED

I DO....and when you look at all the home dogs, and the PARITY is so strong. LINES have not meant as much

PICK THE WINNER, and you GET A COVER

is still VERY STRONG from the PRE-SEASON to the REGULAR SEASON:aktion033

THE NEWPORT REPORT