Newby Question

[lightharper]

Sorry if this questions are dumb, but:

1.- Is there any kind of "group" that sets the game lines and "sell them" to all sportsbooks? or each casino/SB has his own group of people that sets the lines?


2.- How the hell do they know if the over under is 46.5 and the game finishes at 46 or 47 ? the majority of time?

thanks.

 

[SaintsFan1977]

They use stats from each team to get the over and under.

The lines are made by computers using stats, public perceptions, weather, injuries etc. They have the smartest guys working for them.




And during games they sometimes make the call for teams to cover, dont cover, go over or stay under. Lol. Just ask the head official which team he has his money on. Lmao.

Prop bets are the same thing.

 

[lightharper]

They use stats from each team to get the over and under.

The lines are made by computers using stats, public perceptions, weather, injuries etc. They have the smartest guys working for them.




And during games they sometimes make the call for teams to cover, dont cover, go over or stay under. Lol. Just ask the head official which team he has his money on. Lmao.

Prop bets are the same thing.

And how is it, that companies that sells his picks doesn't have that information? they don't have smart guys? can't afford it?

What if the result of the game is all messed up (ie: line was 7.5 but game end it up with a 30 points difference) The smart guys don't get paid?

 

[Slurve~Ball]

For number 1, check out VI line originator

 

[lightharper]

For number 1, check out VI line originator

ooh, makes sense..
So this Line Originators are either Very, very, very Rich... or way too honest?

 

[SaintsFan1977]

And how is it, that companies that sells his picks doesn't have that information? they don't have smart guys? can't afford it?

What if the result of the game is all messed up (ie: line was 7.5 but game end it up with a 30 points difference) The smart guys don't get paid?

The line has zero to do with points scored by each team. Because the line was off by 20 points doesn't mean they were wrong. Public perception is why the lines are made. Vegas doesn't hope every game is 50/50. They know when they have the right side. Seldom is a game 50/50% bets on each side do to think Vegas doesn't need a side to cover is assanine. They don't win every game but the officials usually help Vegas out it seems. Whether they gamble or not, I don't know but I'm willing to bet the Mob is involved some way.

It's just a number put out to get people to bet on one side or the other. They get inside information that we aren't privy to so the juice is not all they hoping for. Just my opinion though.

 

[wizard1183]

I thought it was the avg of last cpl games between the 2 opponents as well as last cpl times these 2 teams faced one another that came into play?

 

[kksuited]

Cantor gaming supplies a lot of the lines to Vegas

 

[kksuited]

http://www.wired.com/2010/11/ff_midas/all/

 

[duckhunter]

Had an oddsmaker tell me once........."we are not trying to predict the outcome of games, we are just trying to read the public's mind".

 

[lightharper]

The line has zero to do with points scored by each team. Because the line was off by 20 points doesn't mean they were wrong. Public perception is why the lines are made. Vegas doesn't hope every game is 50/50. They know when they have the right side. Seldom is a game 50/50% bets on each side do to think Vegas doesn't need a side to cover is assanine. They don't win every game but the officials usually help Vegas out it seems. Whether they gamble or not, I don't know but I'm willing to bet the Mob is involved some way.

It's just a number put out to get people to bet on one side or the other. They get inside information that we aren't privy to so the juice is not all they hoping for. Just my opinion though.

Then why companies that sells picks (ie: covers.com) can't have access to "that information"? I suppose they made tons of money, and they just "get right" what? 20% of its picks? 30% ?

 

[lightharper]

http://www.wired.com/2010/11/ff_midas/all/

good read, thanks

 

[lightharper]

When the line was set to -6.5 on the Raiders-Chargers game, I tought, WTF. How come the hottest team 5-1 can have only 6.5 against a team that is (or was) very clearly not going to cover. There was no damn History and records, weather, that show the contrary, (at least, that's what I thought).... So, what do this guys saw, that we don't. Raiders played the best game they ever played in a looong time. They did cover... but, 99% of the public was on the chargers..... I did bet on Raiders, because I knew something was cooking. But..... How can this guys be smarter than Millions....?.

 

[wizard1183]

Then why companies that sells picks (ie: covers.com) can't have access to "that information"? I suppose they made tons of money, and they just "get right" what? 20% of its picks? 30% ?

Companies that sell picks: how many of those touts actually WIN you money? Vs. how much you'd lose playing those picks? Secondly, using said books to post your plays, those companies you're buying picks from are getting a kickback for every sucker who joins the book and loses. How do I know? Because my local offers me a % of all losses from those I get to join their book.

Out of 53 guys on the books, I'm the only one who's killing it. Now that book may be small but for me to be the only one with a 58.77 winning % I find is astonishing. Tho this winning % is before my week 7 picks are graded...

 

[phantom888]

From Ace Ace's thread:

STAT VS ATS

HOME 40
AWAY 50

DOG. 41
FAV 50

OV 51
UN 40

points that matter. 15 games out of 91 16%

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Had an oddsmaker tell me once........."we are not trying to predict the outcome of games, we are just trying to read the public's mind".

Yep, figure out what the books want you to do and you will be successful.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

From Ace Ace's thread:

STAT VS ATS

HOME 40
AWAY 50

DOG. 41
FAV 50

OV 51
UN 40

points that matter. 15 games out of 91 16%

Yep, historically its at about 85%

 

[Slurve~Ball]

ooh, makes sense..
So this Line Originators are either Very, very, very Rich... or way too honest?

all ya had to do was google it. not sure if links are ok http://www.vegasinsider.com/live-odds/line-originator/nevada/